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Sheep Matters_Aug-Sept 17 (redesigned)

Sample copy of new publication aimed at the progressive farmer and professional in the UK sheep industry. For further information and to register your interest go to www.sheepmatters.co.uk

BREXIT Barometer Whether

BREXIT Barometer Whether you like it or not the UK is set to leave the EU at the end of March 2019. As we write this article, discussion and negotiation on the “divorce settlement” is underway having started formally on the 19th June 2017. The current three priority areas are the rights of UK and EU citizens, the settlement cost and the Irish/ Northern Ireland border. Despite the UK wishing to talk about “future trade deals” the EU appears to be in no mood to do this until the “divorce” is further progressed. However the new trade arrangements will be absolutely critical to the future of the sheep and mutton trade - Will the UK have access to the Single Market or not? Will the UK be required to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms and for how long? Will there be some other arrangements in place? Over the coming months and even years, there will be much speculation, talk and written information about the terms of the these proposed new trade arrangements as the negotiations develop. The purpose of the BREXIT Barometer will be to highlight current issues or developments and to point you in the direction of more relevant articles for further follow up. To commentate on this issue “blow by blow” will be incredibly time consuming and detailed. Our aim at SHEEP MATTERS will be to communicate the key messages about what it means for the typical UK sheep producer, so that you are aware and informed. We will publish links to more detailed articles, reports or documents as they become available. Background information available (10, 11, 12 and 13). Trade updates Australian lamb production and export forecasts by the Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) forecast 235,000 tonnes lamb and 110,000 tonnes mutton. China is a key market for Australia. (4) Sheep meat imports into China have grown in the period January to June 2017 to 146,000 tonnes. This confirms China’s presence as the world’s largest importer of sheep meet, with imports predominately from New Zealand and Australia. (5) HCC takes Welsh lamb to London, along the old drovers routes, as part of a key sales drive for the UK market and kick starts its Welsh lamb summer campaign. (6) A ten week summer campaign highlighting the versatility of Scotch Lamb PGI has been launched in mid August. (7) UK exports have been boosted by the fall in value of sterling compared to our main export competitor, Ireland. (8) UK imports (January to May 2017) amounted to 41,056 tonnes, comprising 5,122 tonnes from EU; 30,529 tonnes from New Zealand and 4,664 tonnes from Australia. (9) UK exports (January to May 2017) amounted to 33,798 tonnes, comprising (9): • ● EU destinations 31,537t (93.3%), mainly France, Germany, Ireland and Belgium. • ● Non EU destinations 2,261t (6.7%), mainly Hong Kong and Ghana. Want to know more? 20 AUGUST & SEPTEMBER 2017

Auction Market Updates Figures are given as weekly average prices for cull ewes and lambs for national livestock auctions in England, Scotland and Wales. Lamb live weights are for prime old season lamb (OS) January to April and prime new season lamb (NS) May to December. Data source, AHDB. Cull Ewes Live Weight Prices - England Lamb Live Weight Prices - England Price (pence / kg) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug month/week Sept Oct Nov Dec Price (pence/kg) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug month/week Sept Oct Nov Dec 2016 2017 2016 OS 2016 NS 2017 OS 2017 NS Cull Ewes Live Weight Prices - Scotland Lamb Live Weight Prices - Scotland 80 300 Price (pence / kg) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Price (pence /kg) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug month/week Sept Oct Nov Dec month/week 2016 OS 2016 NS 2017 OS 2017 NS 2016 2017 Cull Ewes Live Weight Price - Wales Lamb Live Weight Prices - Wales 80 300 Price (pence / kg) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Month/week Sept Oct Nov Dec Price (pence/kg) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug month/week Sept Oct Nov Dec 2016 2017 2016 OS 2016 NS 2017 OS 2017 NS Sheep prices in 2017 - Poor pasture conditions throughout the summer of 2016 saw a large carry-over of crop into 2017 due to late finishing. This high level of supply held prices down for the period January- May 2017. Together with the impact of inflation on consumers’ purchasing power it is expected that prices will generally stay down through this year. These effects may be offset by a weakened Pound which has led to a growing export market and a reduction in imports of sheep meat. The tight global supply of lamb (principally driven by major shortages in New Zealand and Australia) has also helped to keep prices higher than would otherwise be expected. The exceptionally high prices seen in May and early June were a result of the late finishing of early lambs due to adverse Spring weather coupled with a decrease in imports and an increase in exports. The shortages of new season lamb coincided with strong demand (e.g. sourcing of lamb for the Muslim festival of Ramadam). Prices slipped back in late June as supply of new season lamb increased. 2017 AUGUST & SEPTEMBER 21

Sheep Matters - August/ September 2017