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280218_Luxor-Egypt SECAP Final_revised

densely populated cities

densely populated cities and suburbs). In the Mediterranean region, 50% of the urban population lives in an altitude of less than 10 meters from the sea level, in areas, which are vulnerable to sea level rise. In addition to the above, tourist destinations in these areas are vulnerable not only due to the sea level rise, but also due to the temperature increase encountered (Plan Bleu, 2009). The impacts of CC on the Mediterranean environment will relate particularly to (EIB, 2008): • Water, via a change of its cycle due to a rise in evaporation and a decrease in rainfall. This water problem will be of crucial importance for sustainable development in the region; • Soil, via the acceleration of already existing desertification phenomena; • Land and marine biological diversity (animal and plant), via a displacement northward and in altitude of certain species, extinction of less mobile or more climate sensitive species, and emergence of new species; and • Forests, via a rise in fire hazards and parasite risks. These impacts will exacerbate already existing pressures on the natural environment connected with anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture and fishery (reduction of yields), tourism attractiveness (heat waves, water scarcity), coastal areas and infrastructures (significant exposure to the action of waves, coastal storms and other extreme weather events, rise in sea level), human health (heat waves), the energy sector (water needs for power plants, hydropower and increased consumption). In line to the above, the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs) appear to be more vulnerable to CC than the Northern Mediterranean Countries (NMCs). Indeed, they are, on the one hand, more exposed to accelerated desertification, soil aridity and water scarcity and, on the other hand, presenting economic structures that are more strongly dependent on natural resources, as well as technical and financial capacities that are too limited to help implement large-scale adaptation options (EIB, 2008). The Mediterranean, and more especially the Southern and Eastern rim, are and will be more affected by climate change than most other regions of the world in the course of the 21 st century. The impacts of the rise in temperatures, the decrease in rainfall, the multiplication of the number and intensity of extreme events and the possible rise in sea level overlap and amplify the already existing pressures of anthropogenic origin on the natural environment. Through the crucial issue of scarcity of water resources, their impacts are fraught with consequences in the 21 st century for human activities, in particular agriculture, fishery, tourism, infrastructures, urbanized coastal areas and hydropower production. To minimize as much as possible the economic losses and damages, several adaptation options must be thought out and implemented. Energy production lies at the heart of the climate issue. On the one hand, it is the main GHG emitting sector, and CO 2 emissions in the future must be contained. On the other hand, hydropower production, significant in certain countries (13% of power production in the SEMCs), is affected by climate and water regimes changes, as are plant cooling systems. Lastly, the energy demand (in particular, electricity) is growing at a very high pace in the region and is likely to be further accelerated by the additional demand in response to climate change (water desalination, air-conditioning of buildings, and other). Analysing the BEI results of the city of Luxor shows that there are three main sectors that generate the highest rate of GHG emissions. These are: a) Transport; b) Residential buildings; and c) Tourism. Hence, adaptation actions are needed to reduce emission and CC risks on the governorate and city level. 78

2.2. Climate Change Impacts in Egypt Many sectors will be influenced by CC risks: sea level rise, water scarcity, food insecurity, deteriorating human health and ecosystems, disruption of the built environment in different scales ranging from building to cities, losses for economic sectors across continents, especially in developing countries such as Egypt (Figure 16). Direct impact Indirect impact • Temperature • Heat waves • Rain falls patterns • Storms • Floods • Droughts • Agricultural • Food security • Ecosystems • Water • Coastal zones • Energy • Forests • Desert • Tourism • Health • Fishery Figure 16: Classification of climate change impacts on cities One of the major impacts in Egypt is desertification, which is already threatening many continents, namely: Africa, Asia and Latin America 14 . Desertification means that sand encroachment to vegetation and causes land loss, land degradation and difficulty in vegetation growth, especially to farmland adjacent to desert. Desertification is already affecting one quarter of the total land surface of the globe 15 . It occurs due to drought caused by climatic variations, mainly high temperatures and irregular rainfall 16 . This is a typical climatic characteristic of the City of Luxor, Governorate of Luxor, thus increased pest and disease due to high temperatures in winter will be a suitable weather for mosquitoes to attack crops in spring that threat food security 17 . On the national scale, Egypt is facing major challenges as a result of CC impact among all sectors that reflect on the built environment, which ranked as the most exposed and vulnerable sectors that result of sea level rise (SLR) in the coastal areas, whereas in non-coastal areas such as the city of Luxor, global warming would be a great impact on the thermal comfort, air and water quality as well as pressure on the energy sector. Although Egypt emits about 1 per cent of the world’s GHG emissions, it is one of the developing countries vulnerable to the 14 Alberto Marini, Mohamed Talbi, Desertification and Risk Analysis Using High and Medium Resolution Satellite Data: Training Workshop on Mapping Desertification, Springer Science & Business Media, 2008, p. 274. 15 Olagunju, Temidayo Ebenezer.Ecology and Environmental Biology Unit, Department of Zoology University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria., "Drought, desertification and the Nigerian environment," academic journals, Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment., vol. 7, pp. 196-209, July, 2015. 16 UNESCO, "What is desertification? Objective: Introduce the phenomenon of desertification," Available at: - (Accessed on July 15, 2017). 17 E.C.OERKE, Institute for Plant Diseases, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitaet Bonn, Nussallee 9, D-53315 Bonn, Germany, "Crop losses to pests" The Journal of Agricultural Science, vol. Volume 144, no. Issue 01, pp. pp 31-43, February 2006. 79

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