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280218_Luxor-Egypt SECAP Final_revised

Kilometre Square by 2025

Kilometre Square by 2025 17 . A study predicted that 50 cm rise in sea level would threaten 2 million people in Alexandria alone. The middle SLR scenario projects that 276,748 houses are vulnerable to SLR of 7 cm by 2030, and then increase to 338,178 houses vulnerable to SLR of 27 cm by 2060 27 . The SLR will also lead to seawater intrusion that would result in a negative impact on water quality 28 . The Northern coasts of Egypt are threatened by coastal erosion 29 . In addition, the Nile Delta is already subsiding at a rate of 3 to 5 mm per year. Moreover, the city of Alexandria will lose about 30 per cent of the city area due to inundations. Based on a study conducted on climate change impact in Egypt, it is predicted that over 1.5 million people will be affected and lose 195,000 jobs as well as land; with properties’ damage estimated of USD30 billion 30 . According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the relative SLR for North Middle Delta in high SLR scenario is estimated to be about 110 cm by 2060, would cause loss of 52.7 per cent of agricultural lands. In the North Middle Delta and West Delta, 60 cm and over 55 cm SLR would cause loss of 10.4 per cent and 13.2 per cent of agricultural lands respectively. Hence, indicates that the North East Delta is the most vulnerable area to SLR 17 . Climate change impacts – Agriculture Agriculture is one of the main sectors in Egypt that will be influenced by climate change impact due to water supply, less rainfall, and high heat waves as well as population increase. Agriculture is an important sector of economy, which represents about 14 per cent of Egypt’s GDP and it employs large number of people than any other sectors - providing 30 per cent of all employment. Most of agricultural productivity comes from agricultural lands in the Mediterranean coast and Nile Delta 31 . Also, the rise in temperatures will change crop production. In addition, agriculture will suffer from water stress that would lead to increasing pressure on irrigation systems due to negative impact of climate change on water resources. Inundations along the coasts and low-lying due to SLR, threat agricultural lands along the Mediterranean coast and Nile Delta by 2050 17 , that would result in reducing crop production, loss of agricultural and increasing soil salinization by water shortage and SLR 32 . Climate change impacts – Water Egypt is one of the developing countries that is vulnerable to water stress due to cc impact which rapidly increasing the gap between water supply and demand due to population growth. By the year 2020, water demand will increase by 20 per cent due to increase population. The total population of Egypt increased by 27 C. P. Kumar, "Climate Change and Its Impact on Groundwater Resources," International Journal of Engineering and Science, vol. 1, no. 5, pp. 43- 60, October 2012. 28 Omran E. Frihy, Khalid M. Dewidar, Mohamed El Raey, "Evaluation of coastal problems at Alexandria, Egypt," Researchgate, Vol. 30, pp. 281-295, January 1996 29 Omran Frihy, Khalid Dewidar, Mohamed El Raey, "Evaluation of coastal problems at Alexandria, Egypt," Researchgate, Vol.30, pp. 281-295, January 1996. 30 Shardul Agrawala, Annett Moehner, Mohamed El Raey, Declan Conway, Maarten van Aalst, Marca Hagenstad and Joel Smith, "Development and Climate Change in Egypt: Focus on Coastal Resources and the Nile," Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - OECD, 2004. 31 "World Development Indicators: Freshwater," World Bank, Available at: wdi.worldbank.org/table/3.5/ 32 Hossain, "Global Warming induced Sea Level Rise on Soil, Land and Crop Production Loss in Bangladesh," in 19th World Congress of Soil Science, Brisbane, Australia, August 6, 2010 82

36 million from 1950 to 2010, population growth will increase to between 120-150 million by 205033. In March 2017, the population of Egypt reached over 100 million people 34 including 8 million abroad. Most of water consumption is consumed by the Agriculture sector, which represents 85 per cent of the annual total water resource 35. The impact of CC will affect in Egypt’s water resources, especially the Nile River that supply 95 per cent of Egypt’s total water. Optimistic scenarios project a flow increase of one-fourth, and pessimistic scenarios project reducing flow by more than one-third, but 70 per cent of studies predicted a decline in Nile water availability. Climate change will also decline the share of water from 700 m3 to 350 m3 yearly per capita by 2040, and a 50 per cent reduction of rainfall on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. The total annual precipitation for Egypt over the period 1960 to 2003 recorded a decline of 54 mm. Sea water intrusions will increase the water salinity and affect farms that depends on underground water. Moreover, CC will increase number of informal settlements without access to safe water and sanitation. Climate change impacts – Ecosystems Ecosystems will be highly affected by climate change. Many areas in Egypt that includes fragile ecosystems are exposed to such impacts. The Mediterranean coastal shorelines of Egypt contain five large lakes that constitute about 25 per cent of the total wetlands in the Mediterranean region. The Low-lying coastal zones and Nile Delta are exposed to rising in sea levels. The land subsidence in coastal zones, at least 1.6, 1.0, and 2.3 mm per year at Alexandria, Burullus, and Port-Said would exacerbate the impacts of rising seas and may be exceed the expected value of 18-59 cm by the end of this century. Seawater intrusion and increasing soil evaporation due to high temperature play a key role in increased salinity of almost 35 per cent of the agricultural lands in Egypt, which harm ecological system 36 . Erosion due to SLR is affecting the costal zones of Damietta city, which led to retreated more than 500 m between 1983 to1995. Also, Aswan dam plays a role in reducing sediment in the Nile delta and increasing vulnerability to coastal erosion 37 , but the biggest danger that accelerates the pace of climate change impact is the anthropogenic pressures. In Manzala Lake (North of Egypt), human induced such as conversion of wetland ecosystems to agricultural lands, land use change, lack of appropriate management systems, and discharge considerable amounts of sewage and industrial wastes directly into the wetlands and lakes increase vulnerability of ecosystems in addition to natural pressures. The SLR is expected to increase the rate of saline leakage to the topsoil of the Delta and would change of low-lying land into “sabkhas” (very saline land) due to effect of SLR that will be increased over the time and may have a serious impact on agriculture and groundwater resources in the upper Nile Delta, increasing the salinity of Manzala Lake with negative impacts on ecology and fisheries of the lake 38 In terms of endangered species, a substantial number of the currently endangered species might be lost due 33 "Water Scarcity in Egypt," Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Egypt, February 2014 34 CAPMAS - Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics – available at www.capmas.org.eg 35 Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutiko, "Analyzing regional aspects of climate change and water resources," IPCC Secretariat, 2008. 36 Mohamed El Raey, "Impacts and Implications of Climate Change for the Coastal Zones of Egypt," The Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, 2010 37 Elsharkawy H., Rashed H., and Rached I, "The impacts of SLR on Egypt," 45th ISOCARP Congress 2009. 38 M. EL-RAEY, KR. DEWIDAR AND M. EL-HATTAB, "Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change," Springer, Vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 343-361, September 1999 83

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