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1960, global warming’s

1960, global warming’s effect has increased in Egypt and resulted in an increase in the frequency of warm nights and a decrease in cool nights between 1960 and 2003, as well as an increase in the summer temperatures’ averages. It is estimated that temperature will increases over Egypt between 3-3.5°C by 2100 19 . Also, reports state that air quality is a problem - 20,000 people die annually due to diseases caused by air pollution. The cost of air pollution on Egypt’s economy is ranging from 1 to 3% of GDP 20 . Urban infrastructures are also vulnerable to CC impact, especially those located in the coastal zones. Floods along coastal areas due to the sea level rise (SLR) are leading to damage of properties and disruption of infrastructure, namely the international coastal road, which is an important corridor that links the North-western coast to North eastern cost of Egypt. The high temperatures and coastal erosion will also increase the cost of maintenance of paved roads. For example, in 1980 the heat wave that hit the USA damaged hundreds of miles of highways 21 . It is projected that floods in Egypt will damage properties, infrastructure and displace people, e.g., flooding that took place in January 2010 affected over 3,500 people and claimed 12 lives 22 . The annual loss in properties’ values due to sea level rise (SLR) would be 1 to 2 EGP billion and 7 to 16 billion EGP by 2030 and 2060 respectively 23 . The predicted 50 cm rise in sea level would threaten 2 million people and force most of them to be displaced out of the risky zones near coastal areas. Also, the migration waves due to the floods will be forced to move to urban centres and rural settlements, hence increase the pressure on cities and their infrastructures, which are already suffering from heavy traffic due to population growth. In addition, the salt water intrusion will affect the foundations of buildings, roads and water quality 24 . 2.2.2. Climate change impacts – Costal zones The northern coastal zone of Egypt and the Nile Delta – 1,200 km along the Mediterranean coast – are exposed to inundations (sea waves and floods), loss of land due to sea level rise (SLR), that is estimated at 704 Square Kilometres by 2025 17 . A study predicted that 50 cm rise in sea level would threaten 2 million people in Alexandria alone. The middle SLR scenario projects that 276,748 houses are vulnerable to SLR of 7 cm by 2030, and then increase to 338,178 houses vulnerable to SLR of 27 cm by 2060 25 . The SLR will also lead to seawater intrusion that would result in a negative impact on water quality 26 . The Northern coasts of Egypt are threatened by coastal erosion 27 . In addition, the Nile Delta is already subsiding at a rate of 3 to 5 mm per year. Moreover, the city of Alexandria will lose about 30% of the city area due to inundations. Based on a study conducted on climate change impact in Egypt, it is predicted that over 1.5 million people will be affected and lose 195,000 jobs as well as land; with properties’ damage estimated of USD30 billion 28 . According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the relative SLR for North Middle Delta in high SLR 19 "Climate: Observations, projections and impacts," UK Met Office, 2011. 20 David Tresilian, "Egypt and climate change," Ahram weekly, May 2014. Available at: weekly.ahram.org.eg /News/6060/32/Egypt-and-climatechange.aspx - Accessed in April 2016. 21 Christopher R. Adams, "Impacts of Temperature Extremes", available at: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/ socasp/weather1/adams.html/. Accessed in April 2016. 22 "Historical Climate Variability and Change, Egypt dashboard", The World Bank Group, 2016. Available at: sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=EGY&ThisTab=RiskOverview, Accessed in April 2016. 23 Joel Smith, Bruce McCarl Texas, Paul Kirshen James Malley and Mohamed Abdrabo, "Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy 2013," United Nations Development Programme, Cairo, Egypt, 2013. 24 Alexandra Fielden Intern, "Ignored Displaced Persons: the plight of IDPs in urban areas," Policy Development and Evaluation Service, UNHCR, no. 161, July 2008. 25 C. P. Kumar, "Climate Change and Its Impact on Groundwater Resources," International Journal of Engineering and Science, vol. 1, no. 5, pp. 43- 60, October2012. 26 Omran E. Frihy, Khalid M. DewidarMohamed El Raey, "Evaluation of coastal problems at Alexandria, Egypt," Researchgate, Vol. 30, pp. 281-295, January 1996 27 Omran Frihy, Khalid Dewidar, Mohamed El Raey, "Evaluation of coastal problems at Alexandria, Egypt," Researchgate, Vol.30, pp. 281-295, January 1996. 28 Shardul Agrawala, Annett Moehner, Mohamed El Raey, Declan Conway, Maarten van Aalst, Marca Hagenstad and Joel Smith, "Development and Climate Change in Egypt: Focus on Coastal Resources and the Nile," Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - OECD, 2004. 68

scenario is estimated to be about 110 cm by 2060 and would cause loss of 52.7 per cent of agricultural lands. In the North Middle Delta and West Delta, 60 cm and over 55 cm SLR would cause loss of 10.4 per cent and 13.2 per cent of agricultural lands respectively. Hence, this indicates that the North East Delta is the most vulnerable area to SLR 17 . 2.2.3. Climate change impacts – Agriculture Agriculture is one of the main sectors in Egypt that will be influenced by climate change impact due to water supply, less rainfall, and high heat waves, as well as population increase. Agriculture is an important sector of economy, which represents about 14% of Egypt’s GDP and it employs the largest number of people than any other sector - providing 30% of all employment. Most of agricultural productivity comes from agricultural lands in the Mediterranean coast and Nile Delta29. Also, the rise in temperatures will change crop production. In addition, agriculture will suffer from water stress that would lead to increasing pressure on irrigation systems due to negative impact of climate change on water resources. Inundations along the coasts and low-lying due to SLR, threatening agricultural lands along the Mediterranean coast and Nile Delta by 205017, that would result in reducing crop production, loss of agricultural lands and increasing soil salinization by water shortage and SLR30. 2.2.4. Climate change impacts – Water Egypt is one of the developing countries that is vulnerable to water stress due to cc impact which rapidly increases the gap between water supply and demand due to population growth. By the year 2020, water demand will increase by 20 per cent due to increased population. The total population of Egypt increased by 36 million from 1950 to 2010, while the population will increase to between 120-150 million by 205031. In March 2017, the population of Egypt reached over 100 million people 32 including 8 million abroad. Most of water consumption is consumed by the Agriculture sector, which represents 85% of the annual total water resources 33. The impact of CC will affect Egypt’s water resources, especially the Nile River that supplies 95% of Egypt’s total water. Optimistic scenarios project a flow increase of onefourth, and pessimistic scenarios project reduced flow by more than one-third, but 70% of studies predict a decline in Nile water availability. Climate change will also decline the share of water from 700 m 3 to 350 m 3 per capita annually by 2040, and a 50% reduction of rainfall on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. The total annual precipitation for Egypt over the period 1960 to 2003 recorded a decline of 54 mm. Sea water intrusions will increase the water salinity and affect farms that depend on underground water. Moreover, CC will increase the number of informal settlements without access to safe water and sanitation. 2.2.5. Climate Change impacts – Ecosystems Ecosystems will be highly affected by climate change. Many areas in Egypt that include fragile ecosystems are exposed to such impacts. The Mediterranean coastal shorelines of Egypt contain five large lakes that constitute about 25% of the total wetlands in the Mediterranean region. The Low-lying coastal zones and Nile Delta are exposed to sea level rise. The land subsidence in coastal zones, at least 1.6, 1.0, and 2.3 mm per year at Alexandria, Burullus, and Port-Said would exacerbate the impacts of rising seas and may exceed the expected value of 18-59 cm by the end of this century. Seawater intrusion and increasing soil evaporation due to high temperature play a key role in increased salinity of almost 35% of the agricultural lands in Egypt, which harm the ecological system 34 . Erosion due to SLR is affecting the costal zones of Damietta city, where more than 500 m retreated between 1983 to1995. Also, Aswan dam plays a role in reducing sediment in the Nile delta and increasing vulnerability to coastal 29 "World Development Indicators: Freshwater," World Bank, Available at: wdi.worldbank.org/table/3.5/ 30 Hossain, "Global Warming induced Sea Level Rise on Soil, Land and Crop Production Loss in Bangladesh," in 19th World Congress of Soil Science, Brisbane, Australia, August 6, 2010. 31 "Water Scarcity in Egypt," Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Egypt, February 2014. 32 CAPMAS - Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics – available at www.capmas.org.eg 33 Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutiko, "Analyzing regional aspects of climate change and water resources," IPCC Secretariat, 2008. 34 Mohamed El Raey, "Impacts and Implications of Climate Change for the Coastal Zones of Egypt," The Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, 2010. 69

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