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020318_Hurghada SECAP_FINAL

erosion 35 , but the

erosion 35 , but the biggest danger that accelerates the pace of climate change impact are the anthropogenic pressures. In Manzala Lake (North of Egypt), human induced practices such as conversion of wetland ecosystems to agricultural lands, land use change, lack of appropriate management systems, and discharge considerable amounts of sewage and industrial wastes directly into the wetlands and lakes, increase vulnerability of ecosystems in addition to natural pressures. The SLR is expected to increase the rate of saline leakage to the topsoil of the Delta and would change the low-lying land into “sabkhas” (very saline land) due to the effect of SLR that will be increased over time and may have a serious impact on agriculture and groundwater resources in the upper Nile Delta, increasing the salinity of Manzala Lake with negative impacts on ecology and fisheries of the lake 36 . In terms of endangered species, a substantial number of the currently endangered species might be lost due to climate change impacts on the habitats in the Northern lakes of Egypt such as: the lagoons of Maryut, Edku, Borullus, Manzala and Bardaweel 37 . The northern part of the Nile Delta Natural Protectorates of the “Bays of El Gamil”, “Ashtoon El Gamil”, and “Al Manzala lagoon” in Port-Said Governorate represent wetlands and natural restricted area for birds that might be affected by SLR, and similarly in “El-Brolus” protected area in Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate. This is the habitat of almost 135 amphibious plant species and has a significant role in receiving immigration of wild birds exposed to “Zaraniq” Protected Area and “El Bardwaeel Marsh” in the North Sinai Governorate, which is key for bird migration in the world and the habitat for living and reproduction. Over 270 species of birds have been recorded in the area such as Pelicans, herons, storks, crested lark, quail, white stork, lark, avocet, Hem Harrier Rail and falcon 38 ; and climate change will affect them all. A study conducted in 2014 on coral reefs in Red Sea coasts showed a significant decline on the growth of coral reefs due to bleaching as a result of water temperature changes and acidity in addition to human that induced pressure and caused damage. These coral reefs are also exposed to water pollution form a high volume of commercial shipping, oil spills, sewage and nutrient loading from hotels and resorts and over fishing 39 . In Hurghada, coral reefs recorded a decline in growing and faced a 40 % decrease during 1987–2000. It is estimated that these coral reefs face more drastic declines of about 49% and 45% between year 2000 and 2013 respectively. This decline affects the biodiversity concerning over 1,000 species, besides the mangrove vegetation in the coasts 40 . 2.2.6. Climate Change impacts – Tourism Tourism is one of the sectors that will be affected by climate change. In 2010, tourism accounted for 11% of Egypt’s GDP and provided employment for about 12% of Egypt's workforce 41 . Almost 85 percent of visits to Egypt are for leisure and recreation that resulted in recreational expenditures on Red Sea corals of US$472 million (2.6 billion EGP). In 2000, 75% of tourism activity in Egypt was concentrated on the Sinai and Red Sea for leisure and diving. One of the climate change manifestation is that the rise in temperatures and the increased seawater acidification would increase coral reefs’ bleaching. According to a recent study, an 80% increase in coral reefs’ bleaching in the Red Sea is also expected by 2060. Coral reefs’ growth already decreased by 30% in 2013 17 . In addition, losses in internal tourism due to SLR are already taking 35 Elsharkawy H., Rashed H., & Rached I., "The impacts of SLR on Egypt," 45th ISOCARP Congress 2009. 36 M. EL-RAEY, KR. DEWIDAR AND M. EL-HATTAB, "Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change," Springer, Vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 343-361, September 1999. 37 Ben Haj, S., Cebrian, D., Limam, A., Grimes, et. Al., "Vulnerability and impacts of climate change on marine and coastal biological diversity in the Mediterranean, Arab Countries," UNEP, Tunis, 2009. 38 "Natural Protectorates Description," Ministry of Environment (MoE), Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), Available at: www.eeaa.gov.eg/enus/topics/nature/protectorates/protectoratesdescription.aspx./ - Accessed on October 2015. 39 T. J. Done, "Phase shifts in coral reef communities and their ecological significance," Springer Link, Vol. 247, No. 1, pp. 121-132, November 1992. 40 H. El-Askary, S. H. Abd El-Mawla, J. Li, M. M. El-Hattab & M. El-Raey, "Change detection of coral reef habitat using Landsat-5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI data in the Red Sea (Hurghada, Egypt)," International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 35, No. 6, pp. 2327-2346, 2014. 41 "Egypt tourism numbers to fall less than feared," Reuters Africa, October 2009 - Available at: af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE59J0PG20091020?sp=true. Accessed on : July 2015. 70

place in many cities such as Alexandria, Port-Said, Ras el Barr, Gamasa, and Baltiem by 2025 42 . The SLR causes threat to archaeological sites in areas like Abu Keer, Qaitbey Citadel, Selsela (Eastern harbour) in Alexandria 43 . Moreover, heat waves will affect the attractiveness and tourism movement in Egypt due to the fact that most of the tourists prefer moderate weather 44 . 2.2.7. Climate Change impacts – Health Egypt already suffers from air and water pollution. Diseases that are caused by poor water quality and sanitation kill 17,000 children per year. Air pollution concentration level in the urban centre of Greater Cairo was 82.6 mg/m3, when the World Health Organization standard is 10 mg/m 3 . This dramatic situation leads to 20,000 premature deaths annually in Cairo and Alexandria and costs Egypt’s economy 3 to 6 % GDP. Climate change could increase air pollution because high temperatures and low precipitation tend to increase the pollution in the air, so the annual mortality will increase by hundreds to thousands and Egypt’s losses would be 10 to 24 billion EGP per year 17 . Air and water pollution levels in Egypt contribute to many premature deaths and morbidity. About 17,000 children per year, one-fifth of all childhood deaths, are estimated to be a result from poor water quality, inadequate hygiene, and poor sanitation. These conditions also contribute to high levels of infectious diseases among children and adults, particularly diseases caused by worms and other parasites that result in an annual loss of 615,000 disability adjusted life years (DALYs; World Bank, 2002). TABLE 10: RANKING OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES IN EGYPT (OECD) Resources/ risk ranking Risk Certainty of impact Severity of impact Importance of resources Coastal resources Water resources Agriculture Energy Resources - SLR - Coastal erosion Soil salinization - Decrease Nile flow - Low precipitation / Salt water intrusion / Decrease Nile flow - Low precipitation - Salt water intrusion - SLR - Soil salinization - High temperature - High temperature - Decrease Nile flow High - medium High High Medium High High Medium - low Medium - low High - Medium Medium - low Medium - low Medium - low 3. National and Regional Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation This section focuses on the national and regional strategy on climate change adaptation, if applicable. It includes a description of three main sections: 42 "Egypt’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction," the Egyptian cabinet information and decision support center, December 2011. 43 "Environment and development in coastal regions and in small islands," International Workshop on Submarine Archaeology and Coastal Management. Available at: www.unesco.org/csi/pub/papers2/alex7.htm. Accessed on: July 2015. 44 Ma Bele´n Go´mez Martı´n, "WEATHER, CLIMATE AND TOURISM A Geographical Perspective," Elsevier, Barcelona, Spain, 2005. 71

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