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020318_Hurghada SECAP_FINAL

4.2. Climate trends The

4.2. Climate trends The decadal trends in seasonally averaged temperatures for Egypt between 1960 and 2010 indicate that there is a spatially consistent warming signal for temperature over Egypt 55 . Figure 18 describes both summer consistent warming (June to August) and winter (December to February). In the city of Hurghada – Governorate of Red Sea, there is a warming period during summer of 0.25 °C to 0.5 °C per decade compared with that during winter of 0.05 °C to 0.1°C per decade as shown in Figure 19. In line with the increase in the mean temperature, warm nights have become more frequent. They increased by +2 to +3.5 percent per decade, whereas cool nights are less frequent due to the decrease by - 1 to - 2% per decade as shown in Figure 20. Figure 19: Decadal trends in seasonally averaged temperatures for Egypt and surrounding areas over the period 1960 to 2010 Source: UK Met Office, 2011 55 Egypt Climate: Observations, projections and impacts, UK Met Office, 2011 - The research was led by the UK Met Office in collaboration with experts from the University of Nottingham, Walker Institute at the University of Reading, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, University of Leeds, Tyndall Centre — University of East Anglia, and Tyndall Centre — University of Southampton – available at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/4/j/egypt.pdf 78

Temperature 4.2.1. Main climate trends In terms of climate projection, Figure 20 shows the percentage change in average annual temperature by 2100 from the baseline climate of 1960-1990, averaged over 21 CMIP3 models. Therefore, the projected temperature over the city of Hurghada, Governorate of Red Sea increase by around 3°C to 3.5°C. Figure 20: Change in cool nights (a,b), warm nights (c,d), cool days (e,f) and warm days (g,h) for Egypt over the period 1960 to 2003 relative to 1961-1990. Source: UK Met Office, 2011 Rainfall Regarding climate projection, Figure 21 illustrates the percentage change in average annual precipitation by 2100 from the baseline climate period of 1960-1990, averaged over 21 CMIP3 models. It indicates that Egypt is projected to experience a decrease in precipitation, which is seen as common with the wider Mediterranean and the majority of the Middle East. In the city of Luxor, the decrease of -5% to -10% is projected, whereas it is projected -10% to -20% in the city Hurghada. 79

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