Tapestry_EY_BGLN_Summit_View_The_future_of_global_banking-Dec14 (1)
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Will regulation continue to evolve?<br />
At last year’s summit, a regulator said that in the five years since the reform process<br />
began, “we have made a lot <strong>of</strong> progress in putting in the broad regulatory framework.<br />
<strong>The</strong> overall shape is relatively clear.” 25 However, participants also noted that “the<br />
impact on individual institutions is still very much to be determined.” 26 In addition,<br />
regulators suggested that the industry was only “midway through the [prudential<br />
regulatory reform] journey,” and that in some areas “we have only just gotten to the<br />
most difficult questions.” 27<br />
A director at this year’s summit suggested that banks could face continuously changing<br />
standards even as the formally agreed international reform agenda moves closer to<br />
completion: “Is the present position on capital requirements for banks in stasis? <strong>The</strong>re<br />
are arguments for banks to hold more capital, and they are quite sound. It was a political<br />
process that landed us where we are, not analysis about the optimal amount <strong>of</strong> capital.”<br />
A regulator said, “Banks and investors sometimes complain about a lack <strong>of</strong> precise<br />
clarity, but it is just not realistic. Capital buffers will adjust in reaction to changing<br />
conditions, as the size <strong>of</strong> the bank changes, etcetera.”<br />
Similarly, in past <strong>BGLN</strong> discussions, participants suggested it was time to “abandon all<br />
hope” <strong>of</strong> true <strong>global</strong> harmonization. Global standards set by the Basel Committee and<br />
the FSB are intended as minimum standards, not necessarily common standards (though<br />
they are focusing on ensuring consistent application). Before the summit, a participant<br />
said, “Even if we all agree about Basel III, implementing it will require different things.<br />
<strong>The</strong>refore, for banks with significant business in various countries, you cannot simply<br />
rely on your home regulator’s interpretation <strong>of</strong> Basel III … [you must] understand the<br />
analysis and application in every country in which you operate.” At the summit, a<br />
regulator built on that line <strong>of</strong> thinking, saying that individual countries will continue to<br />
reserve the right to make changes: “We all have our own rules, speak different<br />
languages, and that won’t change. It is a cost <strong>of</strong> doing business internationally.”<br />
***<br />
Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf recently wrote, “Cynics … may conclude that<br />
this manic rulemaking is designed to disguise the fact that the thrust <strong>of</strong> it all has been to<br />
preserve the system that existed before the crisis: it will still be <strong>global</strong>; it will continue to<br />
rely on the interaction <strong>of</strong> vast financial institutions with freewheeling capital markets; it<br />
will continue to be highly leveraged; and it will continue to rely for pr<strong>of</strong>itability on<br />
successfully managing huge maturity and risk mismatches.” 28 Whether the system is<br />
changing fundamentally or not, a participant said that policymakers should now be<br />
asking a couple <strong>of</strong> basic questions: “Are we now getting the system we want? Does it<br />
work?” Another went further, advising, “It is time to start defining what we want from<br />
<strong>banking</strong>, not just what risks we do not want. And that needs to take into account all<br />
stakeholders, not just taxpayers.”<br />
“It was a political<br />
process that landed<br />
us where we are,<br />
not analysis about<br />
the optimal amount<br />
<strong>of</strong> capital.”<br />
– Director<br />
“It is time to start<br />
defining what we<br />
want from <strong>banking</strong>,<br />
not just what risks<br />
we do not want.”<br />
– Participant