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Brasil só deve dominar Leitura em 260 anos, aponta estudo do Banco Mundial Relatorio Banco Mundial _Learning

Figure O.2 In several

Figure O.2 In several countries, the 75th percentile of PISA test takers performs below the 25th percentile of the OECD average Performance of 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles in 2015 PISA mathematics assessment, selected countries Percentile 75th 600 550 50th Mathematics score 500 450 400 350 300 Dominican Republic Algeria Kosovo Tunisia Macedonia, FYR Brazil Indonesia Jordan Peru Colombia Source: WDR 2018 team, using data from Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2015 (OECD 2016). Data at http://bit.do/WDR2018-Fig_O-2. their cohorts—would rank in the bottom quarter in a wealthier country. In Algeria, the Dominican Republic, and Kosovo, the test scores of students at the cutoff for the top quarter of students (the 75th percentile of the distribution of PISA test takers) are well below the cutoff for the bottom quarter of students (25th percentile) of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (figure O.2). Even in Costa Rica, a relatively strong performer in education, performance at the cutoff for the top quarter of students is equal to performance at the cutoff for the bottom quarter in Germany. The learning crisis amplifies inequality: it severely hobbles the disadvantaged youth who most need the boost that a good education can offer. For students in many African countries, the differences by income level are stark (figure O.3). In a recent assessment (Programme d’Analyse des Systèmes Éducatifs de la Confemen, PASEC, 2014) administered at the end of the primary cycle, only 5 percent of girls in Cameroon from the poorest quintile of households had learned enough to continue school, compared with 76 percent of girls from the richest quintile. 18 Learning gaps in several other countries—Benin, the Republic of Congo, and Senegal—were nearly as wide. Large gaps among learners afflict many high- and middle- Costa Rica Latvia Vietnam OECD average OECD interquartile range Russian Federation Ireland Germany Finland Korea, Rep. Japan Singapore 25th income countries as well, with disadvantaged students greatly overrepresented among the low scorers. Costa Rica and Qatar have the same average score on one internationally benchmarked assessment (TIMSS 2015)—but the gap between the top and bottom quarters of students is 138 points in Qatar, compared with 92 points in Costa Rica. The gap between the top and bottom quarters in the United States is larger than the gap in the median scores between Algeria and the United States. Students often learn little from year to year, but early learning deficits are magnified over time. Students who stay in school should be rewarded with steady progress in learning, whatever disadvantages they have in the beginning. And yet in Andhra Pradesh, India, in 2010, low-performing students in grade 5 were no more likely to answer a grade 1 question correctly than those in grade 2. Even the average student in grade 5 had about a 50 percent chance of answering a grade 1 question correctly—compared with about 40 percent in grade 2. 19 In South Africa in the late 2000s, the vast majority of students in grade 4 had mastered only the mathematics curriculum from grade 1; most of those in grade 9 had mastered only the mathematics items from grade 5. 20 In New Delhi, India, in 2015, the average grade 6 student performed at a grade 3 6 | World Development Report 2018

Figure O.3 Children from poor households in Africa typically learn much less Percentage of grade 6 PASEC test takers in 2014 who scored above (blue) and below (orange) the sufficiency level on reading achievement: poorest and richest quintiles by gender, selected countries 100 75 50 25 Percent 0 25 50 75 100 F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M F M Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Niger Togo Cameroon Congo, Rep. Benin Côte d’Ivoire Burkina Faso Senegal Burundi Not competent Low competency High competency Source: WDR 2018 team, using data from World Bank (2016b). Data at http://bit.do/WDR2018-Fig_O-3. Note: Socioeconomic quintiles are defined nationally. “Not competent” refers to levels 0–2 in the original coding and is considered below the sufficiency level for school continuation; “low competency” refers to level 3; and “high competency” refers to level 4. F = female; M = male; PASEC = Programme d’Analyse des Systèmes Éducatifs de la Confemen. level in math. Even by grade 9, the average student had reached less than a grade 5 level, and the gap between the better and worse performers grew over time (figure O.4). In Peru and Vietnam—one of the lowest and one of the highest performers, respectively, on the PISA assessment of 15-year-old students—5-yearolds start out with similar math skills, but students in Vietnam learn much more for each year of schooling at the primary and lower secondary levels. 21 Although some countries are making progress on learning, their progress is typically slow. Even the middle-income countries that are catching up to the top performers are doing so very slowly. Indonesia has registered significant gains on PISA over the last 10–15 years. And yet, even assuming it can sustain its 2003–15 rate of improvement, Indonesia won’t reach the OECD average score in mathematics for another 48 years; in reading, for 73. For other countries, the wait could be even longer: based on current trends, it would take Tunisia over 180 years to reach the OECD average for math and Brazil over 260 years to reach the OECD average for reading. Moreover, these calculations are for countries where learning has improved. Across all countries participating in multiple rounds of PISA since 2003, the median gain in the national average score from one round to the next was zero. Figure O.4 Students often learn little from year to year, and early learning deficits are magnified over time Assessed grade-level performance of students relative to enrolled grade, New Delhi, India (2015) Grade-level performance 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 a. Mathematics b. Language 6 7 8 9 Enrolled grade Grade-level performance Expected performance Average assessed performance 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 6 7 8 9 Enrolled grade 75th percentile 25th percentile Source: WDR 2018 team, using data from Muralidharan, Singh, and Ganimian (2016). Data at http://bit.do /WDR2018-Fig_O-4. Overview | 7

  • Page 6 and 7: © 2018 International Bank for Reco
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  • Page 21 and 22: OVERVIEW Learning to realize educat
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    2 Thegreatschooling expansion—and

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    Figure 2.3 Nationalincomeis correla

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    their brightest child to secondary

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    Hanushek, Eric A., and Ludger Woess

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    SPOTLIGHT1 Thebiologyoflearning Res

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    outcomes. Finally, intense stress o

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    Figure 3.1 Mostgrade6studentsinWest

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    Box 3.1 Thosewhocan’treadbytheend

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    Figure 3.4 Learningoutcomesvarygrea

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    meeting global development goals wi

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    language and cognitive abilities ar

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    Box 3.3 Teachersmayperceiveloweffor

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    13. UNESCO (2015). 14. Filmer, Hasa

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    Learning Community of Practice.”

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    SPOTLIGHT2 Povertyhindersbiological

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    early childhood interventions that

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    particularly true in low-income cou

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    In such contexts, learning metrics

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    Learning assessments of key foundat

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    technical challenges. 54 Ex ante li

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    Heckman, James J., Rodrigo Pinto, a

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    SPOTLIGHT3 Themultidimensionality o

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    Notes 1. Schönfeld (2017). 2. For

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    SPOTLIGHT 4 Learning about learning

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    changes in school leadership, schoo

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    5 There is no learning without prep

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    FIGURE 5.1 It pays to invest in hig

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    etter cognitive development, more p

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    Box 5.2 Communities can leverage th

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    Box 5.3 Providing information on ch

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    sometimes mattering more than the e

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    and above and indicates the ability

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    Carneiro, Pedro, Flavio Cunha, and

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    from Poor Rural Areas Go to High Sc

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    ————. 2017. World Developme

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    Table 6.1 Models of human behavior

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    Figure 6.1 Only a small fraction of

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    Box 6.3 Reaching learners in their

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    comparable, suggesting similarly la

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    19. He, Linden, and MacLeod (2008,

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    Harris-Van Keuren, Christine, and I

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    Yoon, Kwang Suk, Teresa Duncan, Sil

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    Table 7.1 Models of human behavior

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    girls. Even beyond building entire

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    Pradesh, India, providing community

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    from a Randomized Experiment in Ecu

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    8 Build on foundations by linking s

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    on their effectiveness is scant. Ev

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    or nonprofits with industry-specifi

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    16. Aubery, Giles, and Sahn (2017).

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    Fares, Jean, and Olga Susana Puerto

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    SPOTLIGHT 5 Technology is changing

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    All of those skills that help indiv

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    PART IV Making the system work for

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    aligned with the overall goal of le

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    many countries they do not routinel

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    thinking, the curriculum alone will

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    Box 9.3 Can private schooling be al

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    financial support in anticipation o

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    Institute for Educational Planning,

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    SPOTLIGHT 6 Spending more or spendi

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    Figure S6.2 The relationship betwee

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    public investment. A central elemen

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    10 Unhealthy politics drives misali

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    Figure 10.1 Contradictory interests

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    Box 10.2 How politics can derail le

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    Trapped in low-accountability, low-

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    Educational Research and Innovation

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    11 How to escape low-learning traps

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    Box 11.1 Using information to align

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    on learning can strengthen incentiv

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    Box 11.4 Using “labs” to build

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    education systems effectively requi

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    Box 11.7 Burundi improved education

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    shift aligned funding with new real

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    Notes 1. Cassen, McNally, and Vigno

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    Working Paper 21825, National Burea

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