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Brasil só deve dominar Leitura em 260 anos, aponta estudo do Banco Mundial Relatorio Banco Mundial _Learning

Box 1.3 Comparing

Box 1.3 Comparing attainment across countries and economies— learning-adjusted years of schooling A given number of years in school leads to much more learning in some economies than in others. Because they do not account for these differences, standard comparisons of schooling attainment may be misleading. But how should they be adjusted to make meaningful comparisons? One approach is to draw on measures of student learning that are standardized across different economies to adjust for quality. International assessments such as the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) or the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) provide such measures. If one is willing to assume that the average learning trajectory across economies is linear—starting at no learning when learners enter school and growing at a constant rate to grade 8—then the ratio of scores across two economies would reflect the relative learning per year in one economy versus the other. For example, if economy A has twice the score of economy B in grade 8, then, on average, a year of schooling in economy A may be considered twice as effective. Two important facts support the credibility of this analysis: first, the TIMSS score ratios across economies for grade 4 are similar to those for grade 8; and second, PISA scores tend to increase linearly across the grades in which that test is administered. What might such an adjustment reveal? An illustration using TIMSS math scores from 2015 confirms that years of schooling are indeed very different from learning-adjusted years, and this difference varies a lot across economies. Whereas people ages 25–29 in Hong Kong SAR, China, and the United States have similar average years of schooling (14 and 13.5, respectively), the number of learning-adjusted schooling years in the United States is almost two years less (figure B1.3.1). And whereas young Singaporeans have only 30 percent more schooling than young Jordanians by the standard measure, the learning-adjusted measure shows Singapore outpaces Jordan by 109 percent in effective schooling years. Figure B1.3.1 There can be a large gap between learning-adjusted and unadjusted years of schooling Years of actual and learning-adjusted schooling among young people, ages 25–29, illustrated using TIMSS data 15 12 Number of years 9 6 3 0 Actual years Australia Bahrain Botswana Canada Chile Egypt, Arab Rep. Hong Kong SAR, China Hungary Iran, Islamic Rep. Ireland Israel Italy Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Korea, Rep. Kuwait Lithuania Malaysia Malta Morocco New Zealand Norway Qatar Russian Federation Saudi Arabia Singapore Slovenia South Africa Sweden Thailand Turkey United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Learning-adjusted years Source: WDR 2018 team, using data from Barro and Lee (2013) and TIMSS 2015 (Mullis and others 2016). Data at Note: Years of schooling in Singapore are the same as learning-adjusted years because Singapore, which scored highest on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) mathematics assessment in 2015, serves as the basis for comparison in this illustration. For the purposes of this illustration, data for years of education in the United Kingdom are adjusted using the TIMSS score for England. Note that for all countries and economies, the size of the adjustment will reflect the scale of the metric used to make it. 48 | World Development Report 2018

Notes 1. United Nations (1948). Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) states: “Everybody has the right to education. . . . Education shall be directed to the full development of the human personality and to the strengthening of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. It shall promote understanding, tolerance and friendship among all nations, racial or religious groups, and shall further the activities for the maintenance of peace.” 2. Sen (1985, 1999, 2004). 3. For example, see UNESCO (2016) for a comprehensive discussion of the role of education in the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. 4. Heckman and others (2014). 5. Becker (1964). 6. Montenegro and Patrinos (2017). 7. Angrist and Krueger (1992); Bedi and Gaston (1999); Card (1993); Duflo (2000); Harmon and Walker (1995); Maluccio (1998). 8. Mincer (1991). 9. Kettunen (1997); Riddell and Song (2011). 10. Filmer and Fox (2014). 11. See Cutler, Lleras-Muney, and Vogl (2008) and Vogl (2012) for a review of the evidence in developed and developing countries, respectively. 12. Cutler and Lleras-Muney (2007); Mackenbach (2006). 13. Although there is reverse causality—better health leads to more education—natural experiments such as the introduction of minimum schooling laws or military draft avoidance have identified the positive and significant causal effects of education on health. 14. de Walque (2007a, 2007b). 15. The World Values Survey 2010–14 (Wave 6) covers 57 developed and developing economies (World Values Survey Association 2015). The survey measures the beliefs, values, and motivations of 90,000 survey respondents selected in nationally representative samples, while also collecting socioeconomic data from those respondents. Estimations include average weights and consolidated categories for analysis (education level and scaled responses). 16. Oreopoulos (2007). 17. Lochner (2004); Lochner and Moretti (2004). 18. Belfield and others (2006); Cullen, Jacob, and Levitt (2006). 19. Anderson (2014); de Hoyos, Gutiérrez Fierros, and Vargas M. (2016); Hjalmarsson, Holmlund, and Lindquist (2015); Machin, Marie, and Vujić (2011). At least two possible mechanisms could explain why education reduces crime. First, because education increases potential earnings, it also drives up the opportunity costs of crime. Second, more schooling may reduce crime simply by reducing the time available to young people to commit a crime. Some U.S. data support this “incapacitation effect” (Anderson 2014). 20. Güneş (2016). 21. Azevedo and others (2012); Baird and others (2010); Duflo, Dupas, and Kremer (2014). 22. Lam, Sedlacek, and Duryea (2016). 23. Osili and Long (2008). 24. Becker, Cinnirella, and Woessmann (2013). 25. Lavy and Zablotsky (2011). 26. Solon (1999). 27. Chetty, Hendren, and Katz (2016). 28. Schultz (1975); Thomas, Strauss, and Henriques (1990); Welch (1970); World Bank (2011). 29. World Bank (2011). 30. Carneiro, Meghir, and Parey (2013). 31. Andrabi, Das, and Khwaja (2012). 32. Nelson and Phelps (1966). 33. Foster and Rosenzweig (1996). 34. Aghion and others (2009). 35. Hanushek and others (2017). 36. Hanson (2007). 37. King, Montenegro, and Orazem (2012). 38. Chong and Gradstein (2015); Dahl (1998); Dewey (1916). 39. Romer (1990); Solow (1956). 40. Aghion (2009); Madsen (2014). 41. Acemoglu, Aghion, and Zilibotti (2006); Aghion (2009); Aghion and others (2009). 42. Barro (2001); Cohen and Soto (2007); Glewwe, Maiga, and Zheng (2014); Krueger and Lindahl (2001); Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992). 43. Bosworth and Collins (2003); Jones (2014). 44. Commission on Growth and Development (2008). 45. World Bank (1993). 46. Education Commission (2016). 47. Aghion and Howitt (2006). 48. Lanjouw and Ravallion (1999); Younger (2003). 49. Abdullah, Doucouliagos, and Manning (2015). 50. Dewey (1916); Lipset (1959, 1960). 51. Campante and Chor (2012). 52. Chzhen (2013). 53. Sondheimer and Green (2010). 54. Dee (2004); Milligan, Moretti, and Oreopolous (2004). 55. Larreguy and Marshall (2017); Wantchekon, Klasnja, and Novta (2015). 56. Friedman and others (2011). 57. Borgonovi and Burns (2015); Chzhen (2013). 58. Pinker (2011). 59. Campbell (2006). 60. Algan, Cahuc, and Shleifer (2013). 61. Blimpo, Evans, and Lahire (2015). 62. Botero, Ponce, and Shleifer (2013). 63. Chong and others (2014). 64. de la Brière and others (2017). 65. Acemoglu and Wolitzky (2011). 66. Collier, Hoeffler, and Rohner (2009). 67. Davies (2004). 68. Glewwe, Maiga, and Zheng (2014); Hanushek and Woessmann (2008, 2012). 69. Barro (2001, 2013). 70. Barro (2013). 71. Hanushek and Woessmann (2015); OECD (2010). 72. Hanushek and others (2015); Valerio and others (2016). 73. Kaffenberger and Pritchett (2017). Schooling, learning, and the promise of education | 49

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