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The Intelligence Review | volume 2 | issue 4 |

This volume is the product of a collaboration between the European Intelligence Academy (EIA) and the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB), a student-run initiative supported by the Department of Politics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, United States. Four CIB analysts tackle some of the most pressing and timely questions confronting intelligence observers today. Topics in this volume include the possibility of a war with North Korea, and the rise of far-right militancy in the United States. The volume also includes an assessment of the impact of the Islamic State in the relations between Russia and the United States, and a discussion of Turkish politics and its effect on NATO's cohesion.


How Likely is a War Involving North Korea? Matt Pologe The question of whether the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) could become involved in a war could be partly answered by assessing the DPRK’s national history. The very roots of this hermit kingdom were forged through war, and the citizens of the DPRK have been acclimated to that background (Armstrong 2017). Since the fighting concluded in 1953, the DPRK and the United States (US) have been at a standstill with regards to the DPRK’s status and armaments program. The current US position is that the DPRK must not expand its ballistic missile program. Washington also wants to prevent the DPRK from establishing a nuclear program, and to compel Pyongyang to join the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) (Davenport 2018; Shepherd 2017). However, the DPRK insists that it is within its right to exercise as many freedoms as any other world power, including the US, and has withdrawn its membership to the NPT (Davenport 2018; Manchester 2017). If the current pattern of military expansion continues to increase, then the DPRK may become so powerful that it might nullify the capability of United Nations (UN) to impose effective sanctions. If the threat of war becomes too great, then the US and the UN may have to enter into negotiations, or the situation could feasibly end in conflict. Notably, after decades of growth and evasion from sanctions, the DPRK could have a level of military strength that would allow it to force the US to alter its policy on the hermit country’s nuclear program at the bargaining table (Davenport 2017; When 2003). 17

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