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RPR_FY2015_08

Mtoe A n n e x 7

Mtoe A n n e x 7 Cambodia Energy Demand Outlook Cambodia’s energy needs have been forecasted until 2035. The forecast was made as part of the Study on Petroleum Demand Projection Modelling in Cambodia. The study was conducted in 2015 by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in collaboration with the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) and the General Department of Petroleum, Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Cambodia. The following are the major results of the projection: Table A7.1 Final Energy Consumption by Sector Historical Projection Average Annual Growth Rates, % 1995 2005 2012 2015 2025 2030 2035 1995- 2012- 2025- 2012- 2012 2025 2035 2035 Industry 438 693 884 895 1,138 1,474 2,140 4.2 2.0 6.5 3.9 Transport 382 441 1,223 1,489 2,457 3,135 3,976 7.1 5.5 4.9 5.3 Other Sector 1,716 1,653 2,904 3,073 3,819 4,312 4,889 3.1 2.1 2.5 2.3 Commercial 3 20 72 91 192 262 343 21.2 7.8 6.0 7.0 Residential 1,712 1,629 2,822 2,971 3,601 4,014 4,498 3.0 1.9 2.2 2.0 Others 1 4 9 12 25 36 48 14.5 7.9 6.5 7.3 Non-energy 8 10 14 17 25 30 36 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.0 Total 2,543 2,798 5,025 5,473 7,438 8,951 11,041 4.1 3.1 4.0 3.5 12.00 10.00 8.00 Figure A7.1 Evolution of Final Energy Consumption by Sector 6.00 4.00 2.00 - 1995 2000 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 Industry Transportation Others Non-energy

Mtoe Table A7.2 Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Historical Projection Average Annual Growth Rates, % 1995 2005 2012 2015 2025 2030 2035 1995- 2012- 2025- 2012- 2012 2025 2035 2035 Biomass 1,854 1,834 2,725 2,763 2,868 2,913 2,956 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 Charcoal 239 335 598 616 667 690 711 5.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 Gasoline 138 132 393 499 724 854 1,002 6.4 4.8 3.3 4.1 Diesel 247 317 843 1,014 1,747 2,284 2,960 7.5 5.8 5.4 5.6 Fuel Oil 4 26 70 45 63 75 90 18.3 (0.8) 3.5 1.1 LPG 2 35 100 166 388 520 655 24.6 11.0 5.4 8.5 Jet Kerosene 12 21 33 44 73 80 87 6.0 6.2 1.9 4.3 Kerosene 39 31 6 6 3 1 - -10.1 -6.1 - - Lubricants 8 10 14 17 25 30 36 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.0 Electricity 10 74 260 345 946 1,576 2,622 20.9 10.4 10.7 10.6 Total 2,554 2,815 5,044 5,512 7,503 9,023 11,118 4.1 3.1 4.0 3.5 Oil 451 572 1,460 1,789 3,022 3,845 4,829 7.2 5.8 4.8 5.3 12.00 10.00 8.00 Figure A7.2 Evolution of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel 6.00 4.00 2.00 - 1995 2000 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 Coal Oil Natural gas Electricity Heat Others Table A7.3 Primary Energy Supply Historical Projection Compounded Annual Growth Rates, % 1995 2005 2012 2015 2025 2030 2035 1995- 2012 2012- 2025 2025- 2035 2012- 2035 Coal 0.0 0.0 8.1 564.2 1,624.9 1,568.8 1,555.7 - 50.4 -0.2 25.7 Oil 511.3 761.7 1,550.0 1,759.5 3,274.5 4,073.4 5,051.8 6.7 5.9 2.3 5.3 Crude Oil 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5,305.1 5,305.1 5,305.1 - - - - Oil Products 511.3 761.7 1,550.0 1,759.5 -2,030.6 -1,231.8 -253.4 6.7 -202.1 -10.4 -192.4 Hydropower 0.0 3.8 2.2 219.6 542.4 1,261.5 2,421.4 - 52.5 8.2 35.5 Others 2,325.4 2,494.5 3,735.6 3,941.5 4,146.3 4,234.1 4,319.1 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.6 Renewables 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 - -0.1 0.0 0.0 Biomass 2,325.4 2,491.9 3,618.6 3,963.8 4,168.6 4,256.5 4,341.4 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.8 Electricity 0.0 2.5 116.7 -22.6 -22.6 -22.6 -22.6 - -188.1 0.0 -193.1 Total 2,836.7 3,259.9 5,295.9 6,484.8 9,588.1 11,137.8 13,347.9 3.7 4.7 1.8 4.1 Annex 7 | 93