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6 months ago

RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

SECTION 2 | METRO

SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Metro: Los Angeles Benchmark: Red 49 Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 4,506,670 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 45,900 / 1.03% RCR 2018 Forecast 109,900 / 2.44% RCR 2019 Forecast 77,500 / 1.68% RCR 2020 Forecast 75,400 / 1.61% RCR 2021 Forecast 75,400 / 1.58% Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 75,856,600 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 1,287,000 / 1.73% RCR 2018 Forecast 1,587,500 / 2.09% RCR 2019 Forecast 1,128,900 / 1.46% RCR 2020 Forecast 916,200 / 1.17% RCR 2021 Forecast 999,000 / 1.29% Occupancy Rate Summary 4Q17 Occupancy Rate (Reis) 96.66% Occupancy Rate Summary Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.44% RED 49 Rank 6 Annual Chg. (Reis) 0.0% RCR YE18 Forecast 96.3% RCR YE19 Forecast 96.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 96.6% RCR YE21 Forecast 97.0% Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 95.0% RCR YE19 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.2% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,811 Annual Change 4.5% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,342 Annual Change 3.9% RED 49 Rent Change Rank 16 RCR YE18 Forecast 5.4% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.7% RCR YE20 Forecast 3.7% RCR YE21 Forecast 4.8% RCR YE18 Forecast 3.8% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 3.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 3.2% Total Return Summary Expected Total Return 8.46% Total Return Summary Avg. Expected Total Return 6.97% ETR RED 49 RANK 1 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 3.57 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 4.16 RAI RED 49 RANK 33 Generic Purchase Cap Rate 4.40% Derived Terminal Cap Rate 4.97% Average Purchase Cap Rate 5.21% Average Terminal Cap Rate 5.79% 60

SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Los Angeles Occupancy Rate History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Occupancy Rate Los Angeles Occupancy Rate 99% 97.3% 98% 97% 96.7% 96.3% 96.4% 96.6% 97.0% 96% 95% 94% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Los Angeles Rent Growth History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Rent Growth Los Angeles Year-On-Year Rent Growth 8% 7% 6.3% 6% 4.5% 5.4% 4.8% 5% 3.7% 3.7% 4% 3% 2% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Los Angeles Payroll Job History and Forecast Souces: BLS History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Payroll Growth Los Angeles Year-On-Year Payroll Job Growth 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 61

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