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8 months ago

RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

SECTION 2 | METRO

SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Metro: Norfolk Benchmark: Red 49 Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 766,900 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change -7,600 / -0.98% RCR 2018 Forecast 1,800 / 0.23% RCR 2019 Forecast -1,600 / -0.21% RCR 2020 Forecast -2,200 / -0.26% RCR 2021 Forecast -1,000 / -0.13% Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 75,856,600 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 1,287,000 / 1.73% RCR 2018 Forecast 1,587,500 / 2.09% RCR 2019 Forecast 1,128,900 / 1.46% RCR 2020 Forecast 916,200 / 1.17% RCR 2021 Forecast 999,000 / 1.29% Occupancy Rate Summary 4Q17 Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.47% Occupancy Rate Summary Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.44% RED 49 Rank 22 Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.0% RCR YE18 Forecast 95.4% RCR YE19 Forecast 95.6% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.6% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.3% Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 95.0% RCR YE19 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.2% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,001 Annual Change 1.5% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,342 Annual Change 3.9% RED 49 Rent Change Rank 46 RCR YE18 Forecast 2.4% RCR YE19 Forecast 2.7% RCR YE20 Forecast 2.8% RCR YE21 Forecast 2.7% RCR YE18 Forecast 3.8% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 3.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 3.2% Total Return Summary Expected Total Return 6.67% Total Return Summary Avg. Expected Total Return 6.97% ETR RED 49 RANK 37 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 3.72 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 4.16 RAI RED 49 RANK 27 Generic Purchase Cap Rate 5.75% Derived Terminal Cap Rate 6.50% Average Purchase Cap Rate 5.21% Average Terminal Cap Rate 5.79% 74

SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Norfolk Occupancy Rate History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Occupancy Rate Norfolk Occupancy Rate 98% 97% 96% 95.5% 95.4% 95.6% 95.6% 95.3% 95.0% 95% 94% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Norfolk Rent Growth History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Rent Growth Norfolk Year-On-Year Rent Growth 8% 6% 4% 1.5% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2% 0% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Norfolk Payroll Job History and Forecast Souces: BLS History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Payroll Growth Norfolk Year-On-Year Payroll Job Growth 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 75

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