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8 months ago

RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

SECTION 2 | METRO

SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Metro: Orange County Benchmark: Red 49 Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 1,616,267 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 16,500 / 1.03% RCR 2018 Forecast 53,000 / 3.28% RCR 2019 Forecast 28,700 / 1.72% RCR 2020 Forecast 20,500 / 1.21% RCR 2021 Forecast 23,800 / 1.38% Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 75,856,600 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 1,287,000 / 1.73% RCR 2018 Forecast 1,587,500 / 2.09% RCR 2019 Forecast 1,128,900 / 1.46% RCR 2020 Forecast 916,200 / 1.17% RCR 2021 Forecast 999,000 / 1.29% Occupancy Rate Summary 4Q17 Occupancy Rate (Reis) 96.24% Occupancy Rate Summary Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.44% RED 49 Rank 11 Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.5% RCR YE18 Forecast 96.0% RCR YE19 Forecast 96.0% RCR YE20 Forecast 96.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 96.3% Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 95.0% RCR YE19 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.2% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,807 Annual Change 2.1% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,342 Annual Change 3.9% RED 49 Rent Change Rank 36 RCR YE18 Forecast 3.1% RCR YE19 Forecast 2.8% RCR YE20 Forecast 2.8% RCR YE21 Forecast 4.0% RCR YE18 Forecast 3.8% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 3.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 3.2% Total Return Summary Expected Total Return 6.03% Total Return Summary Avg. Expected Total Return 6.97% ETR RED 49 RANK 45 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 2.98 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 4.16 RAI RED 49 RANK 41 Generic Purchase Cap Rate 4.50% Derived Terminal Cap Rate 5.22% Average Purchase Cap Rate 5.21% Average Terminal Cap Rate 5.79% 76

SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Orange County Occupancy Rate History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Occupancy Rate Orange County Occupancy Rate 98% 97% 96.2% 96.0% 96.0% 96.1% 96.3% 96.4% 96% 95% 94% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Orange County Rent Growth History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Rent Growth Orange County Year-On-Year Rent Growth 7% 6% 5.5% 5% 4.0% 4% 2.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 3% 2% 1% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Orange County Payroll Job History and Forecast Souces: BLS History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Payroll Growth Orange County Year-On-Year Payroll Job Growth 5% 4% 3.3% 3% 2% 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1% 0% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 77

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