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BusinessDay 11 Apr 2018

Wednesday

Wednesday 11 April 2018 marketinsight Oil falls on Trump’s latest China trade threats C002D5556 OPEC Flakes BUSINESS DAY 07 WEST AFRICA ENERGY intelligence Oil prices fell about 2 percent after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on China, reigniting fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies that could hurt global growth. Trump said he had ordered US trade officials to consider tariffs on an extra $100 billion of imports from China, escalating tensions with Beijing. China warned it was fully prepared to respond with a “fierce counter strike” of fresh trade measures if the United States follows through on Trump’s threat. Brent crude futures settled down $1.22 at $67.11 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.48 to $62.06 a barrel, a 2.3 percent loss. Brent Lower costs and improved market conditions led to more oil and gas investments, though spending last year was below the historic average, analysis found. Wood Mackenzie, energy consultant group, found that average spending last year on major projects, those with commercial reserves of more than 50 million barrels of oil equivalent, was around $2.7 billion, the lowest in a decade. Average spending over the last decade was closer to $5.5 billion. Jessica Brewer, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said operators are crude dropped 2.8 percent in the week while US crude fell 4.4 percent, the biggest weekly decline since early February. spending more on mature basins, expansions to existing infrastructure or on projects that can be tied in to nearby producers. Less is being spent on new oil and gas field developments. “Both investors and operators want to see faster cycle times and quicker returns on upstream projects,” Wood Mackenzie’s Brewer said in a statement. “We should continue to see operators favoring a ‘leaner and meaner’ path in 2018.” Nevertheless, Wood Mackenzie found that improved market conditions and improvements on where operators can break even in terms of the OPEC member Libya’s oil output is at around 1.05 million barrels per day despite a continuing outage since February at its 70,000 bpd El Feel oilfield. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that an arrangement under which Moscow cooperates with the OPEC oil group could become indefinite once a current deal to curb oil production expires at the end of the year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other large oil producers led by Russia have agreed to curtail their combined output by around 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of 2018 to smooth out bloated oil inventories. OPEC and its allies should keep the cuts to ensure healthy price levels as a way to boost investment in the industry and avoid a supply and price shock in the long run, Qatar’s energy minister said. Oil, gas spending on major projects at lowest level in a decade price of oil led to an uptick in industry sentiment. The most competitive prospects are in the waters offshore Mexico, Norway and the United Kingdom. For natural gas, the bonanza could be in Iran, Norway and Oman. Separately, Angus Rodger, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said liquefied natural gas in particular is a bright spot on the horizon, though questions remain on investment rigor. “While it is good news that operators have found ways to grow in tough business conditions, the big question is whether the industry is actually spending enough,” he said. OPEC celebrates NIPS vak said. “If such cooperation is maintained in the longer term, we will send a signal that we can undertake new joint actions to improve the market at any moment,” said Novak. He added that a new international organization could be formed to discuss oil markets, bringing in other producers. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has dedicated the March edition of OPEC bulletin to celebrate Nigeria’s oil and gas sector and the recently concluded maiden edition of Nigeria International Petroleum Summit (NIPS). “There is always something thrilling about being part of innovation; and this Summit is truly innovative. I have no doubt that as it evolves into the premier platform for shaping petroleum policies in Africa; years from now, we will all take pride in saying we were at the first edition!” With Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said an arrangement under which Moscow cooperates with the OPEC oil group could become indefinite, once a current deal to curb oil production expires at the end of the year. Alexander Novak’s remarks come as OPEC and 10 non-OPEC countries are increasingly discussing a new format for their cooperation agreement, which expires at the end of 2018. The pact shows “there is a tool, mechanism to influence the market balancing quickly if needed, in case of crises similar to the one started in 2014,” No- these words, OPEC’s Secretary General, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, summarized how all of the participants at NIPS felt. NIPS was aimed at replicating in Africa the type of knowledge exchange, problem-solving discussions and networking opportunities which an event such as the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) provides. The event was extremely well attended. Not only were discussions productive and outcome orientated, the inaugural edition of NIPS served as a tremendous platform to expand and internationalize the Summit going forward. Russia: Cooperation with OPEC could be indefinite

Wednesday 11 April 2018 08 BUSINESS DAY C002D5556 WEST AFRICA ENERGY intelligence In association with ‘Global energy demand grew by 2.1 percent in 2017’ talking points ISAAC ANYAOGU Paris-based energy think-tank, the International Energy Agency has said that global energy demand rose by 2.1 percent in 2017, more than twice the previous year’s rate, boosted by strong global economic growth, with oil, gas and coal meeting most of the increase in demand for energy, and renewables seeing impressive gains. According to the group, over 70 percent of global energy demand growth was met by oil, natural gas and coal, while renewables accounted for almost all of the rest. Improvements in energy efficiency slowed down last year. As a result of these trends, global energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions increased by 1.4 percent in 2017, after three years of remaining flat. However, carbon emissions did not see the same level of traction. Carbon emissions, which reached a historical high of 32.5 gigatonnes in 2017, did not rise everywhere. While most major economies saw a rise, others; United States, United Kingdom, Mexico and Japan, experienced declines. The biggest drop in emissions came from the United States, driven by higher renewables deployment. These findings are part of the International Energy Agency’s newest resource, the Global Energy and CO2 Status Report, 2017, released online today, which provides an up-to-date snapshot of recent trends and developments across all fuels. “The robust global economy pushed up energy demand last year, which was mostly met by fossil fuels, while renewables made impressive strides,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “The significant growth in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2017 tells us that current efforts to combat climate change are far from sufficient. For example, there has been a dramatic slowdown in the rate of improvement in global energy efficiency as policy makers have put less focus in this area.” Other key findings of the report for 2017 are oil demand grew by 1.6 percent, more than twice the average annual rate seen over the past decade, driven by the transport sector (in particular a growing share of SUVs and trucks in major economies) as well as rising petrochemical demand. In the case of natural gas, consumption grew 3 percent, the most of all fossil fuels, with China alone accounting for nearly a third of this growth, and the buildings and industry sectors contributing to 80 percent of the increase in global demand. Coal shifted from previous record of poor run and saw demand rose about 1 percent, reversing declines over the previous two years, driven by an increase in coal-fired electricity generation mostly in Asia. But Renewables made a strong showing and reported the highest growth rate of any fuel, meeting a quarter of world energy demand growth, as renewables-based electricity generation rose 6.3 percent, driven by expansion of wind, solar and hydropower. The group said electricity generation increased by 3.1 percent, significantly faster than overall energy demand, and India and China together accounting for 70 percent of the global increase. Energy efficiency improvements slowed significantly, with global energy intensity improving by only 1.7 percent in 2017 compared with 2.3 percent on average over the last three years, caused by an apparent slowdown in efficiency policy coverage and stringency and lower energy prices. Fossil fuels accounted for 81 percent of total energy demand in 2017, a level that has remained stable for more than three decades. This indicates that while the shift to renewables is real, fossil fuels will not be driven aground as an energy source any time soon.

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