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Wyelands_Bank_GTR_TRADE_BRIEFING_2018

Wyelands Bank - Growing together Top five export partners for services (continued) GERMANY Transport US$3.0bn CAGR 2011-16 -5.35 2017-21 -1.13 Telecommunications, computer, and information services US$2.9bn CAGR 2011-16 0.01 2017-21 1.56 Business services US$9.0bn CAGR 2011-16 -1.46 2017-21 -0.61 Travel US$2.6bn CAGR 2011-16 -2.91 2017-21 0.44 Financial services US$3.8bn CAGR 2011-16 -0.93 2017-21 1.10 FRANCE Travel US$3.8bn CAGR 2011-16 3.29 2017-21 3.18 Telecoms & IT US$2.0bn CAGR 2011-16 -5.02 2017-21 2.61 Transport US$3.7bn CAGR 2011-16 1.53 2017-21 1.41 Business services US$12.3bn CAGR 2011-16 7.65 2017-21 4.48 Insurance and pension services US$1.7bn CAGR 2011-16 11.78 2017-21 5.50 Germany In 2016, the UK had a service sector trade surplus with Germany of approximately US$1bn and total exports of US$26.3bn. The UK’s services exports to Germany are also dominated by business services – especially management consulting, accounting and legal services – which account for almost as much as the other top five sectors put together. Both business services and transport services export growth to Germany have declined over the past five years and are set to decline further, albeit at a slower rate. However, financial services and telecommunications and IT appear to be sectors that will increase strongly on an annualised basis in the period to 2021. France France is the UK’s second-largest market for service sector exports, with a total export value of US$25.4bn in 2016. Business services dwarf all of the other service sectors at US$12.3bn. This is nearly half of the UK’s service exports to France and accounts for much of the total surplus of around US$3bn that the UK has with France. UK service sector exports to France are projected to grow substantially for insurance and pension services of 5.5 per cent and for business services of 4.5 per cent per year in the five years to 2021. Source: Coriolis Technologies 10 | UK trade briefing 2018 In collaboration with GTR

Wyelands Bank - Growing together 3. EXPORTS AND THE VALUE OF STERLING Much of the UK’s growth in trade over the past year has been to do with the weaker value of sterling against the dollar, which has boosted exports to the US and China in particular. The correlation of the UK’s trade outside of Europe with the sterling-US dollar spot price is quite high at over 60 per cent. This suggests that as the currency moves, so too will trade. However, this is not the case for the UK’s trade with Europe, which is barely correlated with the value of sterling against the Euro. This means that trade between the UK and Europe is not connected to the value of currency – largely because of the integration with supply chains. As a result, because a large proportion of our trade is with Europe, trade is not greatly influenced by fluctuations in the currency. 4. SMALL BUT POWERFUL More than twice the number of UK small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) trade internationally than government figures estimate. The analysis of the figures shows 30 per cent of SMEs are international against just 12.9 per cent according to a government survey in 2016 (figure 6). What’s more, most SMEs are likely to be exposed to international trade in some way, commonly through imports or back-office functions located abroad. SMEs are vital to UK trade because they are often ambitious and entrepreneurial. In addition, they are also a vital source of innovation. Smaller, more innovative companies – especially in manufacturing – play an important part in the UK’s capacity to plug niche gaps in global supply chains. This is clear from the distribution of international business by sector where manufacturing has some 24 per cent of businesses with international turnovers. FIGURE 6 Share of UK exports by company size Large 57% Very large 13% Small 6% Medium 24% 11 | UK trade briefing 2018 In collaboration with GTR

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