CNTMP Final Report - April 2018

GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE 

Office of the Prime Minister 

The Department of Public-Private Sector Dialogue 

Preparation of a Comprehensive National 

Transportation Master Plan for Belize 

Final Report 

Comprehensive National Transportation 

Master Plan 

17 April 2018 

Prepared by: 

Funded by:


Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan 

The preparation of the Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan for Belize 

(CNTMP) was coordinated by the Department of Public-Private Dialogue in the Office of 

the Prime Minister with funding for technical assistance from the Japan Special Fund of 

the Inter-American Development Bank. The CNTMP, completed in April 2018, was 

produced by Egis International in association with Transconsult through extensive 

stakeholder engagement over the course of 24 months. 

Scan here for full CNTMP reports 

or visit www.edc.gov.bz 

Preparation for a Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan for Belize 

Page i



Document Quality Information 

General information 

Author(s) 

Study Team 

Project name Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan for Belize 

Document name Final Report 

Date 17 April 2018 

Addressee(s) 

Sent to: 

Name Organisation Sent on (date): 

Ishmael Lucien Quiroz Director – Office of the Prime Minister 17 April 2018 

Yuri Alpuche Office of the Prime Minister 17 April 2018 

History of modifications 

Version Date Written by Checked by Approved & 

signed by: 

1 17 April 2018 Project Team Rodolfo Martinez Julian Aron 


Page ii



Contents 

Contents ........................................................................................................................ (ii) 

List of Figures ............................................................................................................. (vii) 

List of Tables .............................................................................................................. (viii) 

List of Acronyms .......................................................................................................... (xi) 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... xvi 

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1-1 

1.1 BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................... 1-1 

1.2 THE COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN PROCESS ................... 1-3 

1.2.1 Project Objectives ..................................................................................... 1-3 

1.2.2 Scope of the Work ..................................................................................... 1-4 

1.2.3 Structure of the CNTMP ............................................................................ 1-4 

BASELINE CONDITION .................................................................. 2-1 

2.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 2-1 

2.2 GEOGRAPHY AND SOCIO-ECONOMICS ..................................................................... 2-1 

2.3 AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION AND MANUFACTURING ............................................... 2-4 

2.3.1 Agriculture Sector ...................................................................................... 2-4 

2.3.2 Secondary Sector - Manufacturing ............................................................. 2-4 

2.4 TOURISM ................................................................................................................. 2-5 

2.4.1 General ..................................................................................................... 2-5 

2.4.2 Visitor Market ............................................................................................ 2-5 

2.4.3 Future Tourism Growth .............................................................................. 2-5 

2.4.4 Destinations & Development Areas ........................................................... 2-5 

2.4.5 Major Problems & Issues ........................................................................... 2-6 

2.5 INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................ 2-6 

2.5.1 Institutional Set-up..................................................................................... 2-6 

2.5.1.1. Overall Government Structure ......................................................................... 2-6 

2.5.1.2. Ministries and Departments Governing the Transport Sector ............................ 2-9 

2.5.1.3. Statutory Boards ........................................................................................... 2-11 

2.5.1.4. Municipal Bodies .......................................................................................... 2-14 

2.5.2 Legal Framework and Primary Legislation ............................................... 2-14 

2.6 ROAD TRANSPORT ................................................................................................. 2-16 

2.6.1 Road System .......................................................................................... 2-17 

2.6.1.1. Primary Highway .......................................................................................... 2-17 

2.6.1.2. Road Pavement Condition and Maintenance Needs ...................................... 2-18 

2.6.1.3. Traffic Signage Conditions ............................................................................ 2-21 

2.6.1.4. Road Safety ................................................................................................. 2-21 

2.6.2 Road Traffic Counts & Origin-Destination Surveys ................................... 2-21 

2.6.2.1. Survey Types and Survey Locations.............................................................. 2-21 

2.6.2.2. Purpose and Content .................................................................................... 2-21 

2.6.2.3. Average Daily Traffic .................................................................................... 2-21 

2.6.2.4. Road Traffic Assignment ............................................................................... 2-23 

2.6.3 Major Road Transport Problems and Issues ............................................ 2-25 

2.7 PORTS AND MARITIME ........................................................................................... 2-27 

2.7.1 Ports Facilities and Cargo Movements ..................................................... 2-27 

2.7.1.1. Port of Belize ................................................................................................ 2-27 


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2.7.1.2. Port of Big Creek .......................................................................................... 2-28 

2.7.1.3. Other Port Facilities ...................................................................................... 2-30 

2.7.2 Major Ports and Maritime Problems and Issues ....................................... 2-30 

2.8 AVIATION ............................................................................................................... 2-33 

2.8.1 Airport Facilities ....................................................................................... 2-33 

2.8.1.1. The Philip Goldson International Airport ......................................................... 2-33 

2.8.1.2. Domestic Aerodromes .................................................................................. 2-35 

2.8.2 Major Airports and Aviation Problems and Issues .................................... 2-39 

2.9 TRAFFIC POLICY...................................................................................................... 2-39 

2.9.1 Vehicle and Driver Licensing and Registration ......................................... 2-39 

2.9.1.1. Institutional Setup ......................................................................................... 2-39 

2.9.1.2. Problems and Constraints ............................................................................. 2-40 

2.9.2 Vehicle Ownership .................................................................................. 2-40 

2.10 PUBLIC TRANSPORT ......................................................................................... 2-40 

2.10.1 Characteristics ........................................................................................ 2-40 

2.10.2 Main Problems and Issues ...................................................................... 2-41 

2.11 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE ................... 2-42 

CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSPORT DEMAND........................ 3-1 

3.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 3-1 

3.2 ROAD DEMAND FORECASTS ..................................................................................... 3-1 

3.2.1 Base Year (2017) Conditions ..................................................................... 3-1 

3.2.2 Forecasts: Medium (2025) and Long (2035) Term ..................................... 3-2 

3.2.2.1. Medium and Long Term Road Assignment on Base Case Road Network and 

Level of Service (Congestion) ......................................................................... 3-3 

3.3 TOURISM PASSENGER FORECASTS ........................................................................... 3-7 

3.3.1 Tourism Forecast – National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP) .. 3-7 

3.3.2 Conclusions ............................................................................................ 3-12 

3.4 PORTS FORECASTS ................................................................................................. 3-12 

3.4.1 Main Export Products and Distribution by Ports ....................................... 3-13 

3.4.2 Belize City Port Forecasts ....................................................................... 3-14 

3.4.2.1. Container ..................................................................................................... 3-14 

3.4.2.2. Oil products .................................................................................................. 3-16 

3.4.2.3. Total............................................................................................................. 3-17 

3.4.3 Port of Big Creek Forecasts ..................................................................... 3-17 

3.5 DOMESTIC AVIATION FORECASTS .......................................................................... 3-19 

3.5.1 Philip Goldson International Airport .......................................................... 3-19 

3.5.2 Domestic Aerodromes ............................................................................. 3-20 

3.6 PUBLIC (BUS) AND WATER TAXI TRANSPORT FORECAST ......................................... 3-21 

3.7 CONSOLIDATED FORECASTS ................................................................................... 3-22 

VISION, OBJECTIVES, SCENARIO, AND POLICIES FOR THE 

TRANSPORT SYSTEM .................................................................. 4-1 

4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 4-1 

4.2 FRAMEWORK POLICY CONDITIONS .......................................................................... 4-1 

4.3 LONG-TERM VISION AND OBJECTIVES FOR THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM ....................... 4-3 

4.4 ALTERNATIVES TO ACHIEVE THE VISION ................................................................... 4-4 

4.4.1.1. The Approach to the Supply Scenario Development ........................................ 4-4 

4.4.1.2. Scenario A: Priority to Trade – Measures......................................................... 4-6 

4.4.1.3. Scenario B: Priority to Tourism – Infrastructure Investments ............................. 4-7 

4.4.1.4. Scenario C: Social and Economic Integration – Infrastructure Investments ....... 4-9 

4.5 THE SELECTED SCENARIO ....................................................................................... 4-10 

4.5.1 Multi-criteria Analysis for Scenario Comparison ....................................... 4-11 

4.5.1.1. Multi-criteria Assessment Approach .............................................................. 4-11 

4.5.1.2. Evaluation Criteria ........................................................................................ 4-11 

4.5.1.3. Weighting and Scoring of Evaluation Criteria ................................................. 4-14 


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4.5.1.4. Multi-criteria Evaluation Results .................................................................... 4-15 

4.5.1.5. Comparison of Scenarios .............................................................................. 4-24 

4.5.2 The Selected Supply Scenario ................................................................. 4-25 

4.5.2.1. Selected Projects and Programs ................................................................... 4-25 

4.5.2.2. Results of the Review of Supply Scenario Selection with the Steering 

Committee ................................................................................................... 4-29 

4.6 STRATEGY AND POLICY GUIDELINES FOR THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ........................ 4-31 

4.6.1 Institutional Development ........................................................................ 4-31 

4.6.2 Road Development.................................................................................. 4-34 

4.6.3 Freight Ports Development ...................................................................... 4-36 

4.6.4 Passenger Ports and Jetties Development .............................................. 4-37 

4.6.5 Airports Development .............................................................................. 4-37 

4.6.6 Freight Logistics Development ................................................................. 4-38 

4.6.7 Passenger Transport Development ......................................................... 4-39 

4.6.8 The Multi-modal Integrated Transport Sector Development...................... 4-39 

4.6.9 Environmental Protection and Climate Resilience and Adaptation 

Development ........................................................................................... 4-39 

ASSESSMENT AND RANKING OF PROJECTS AND ACTIONS .. 5-1 

5.1 ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS ................. 5-1 

5.1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 5-1 

5.1.2 Economic Assessment .............................................................................. 5-1 

5.1.2.1. Methodology................................................................................................... 5-1 

5.1.2.2. General Assumptions...................................................................................... 5-1 

5.1.2.3. Economic Assessment RPsults ....................................................................... 5-3 

5.1.3 Social Assessment .................................................................................... 5-4 

5.1.3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 5-4 

5.1.3.2. Road Projects ................................................................................................. 5-5 

5.1.3.2.1 Connectivity among Population Settlements .................................................... 5-5 

5.1.3.2.2 Accidents Risk Reductions .............................................................................. 5-8 

5.1.3.2.3 Access to Labor Market, Educational and Health SServices ............................. 5-8 

5.1.3.2.4 Poverty........................................................................................................... 5-9 

5.1.3.2.5 Human Development Index (HDI) .................................................................. 5-10 

5.1.3.3. Public Transport Projects .............................................................................. 5-10 

5.1.3.3.1 Time Reduction ............................................................................................ 5-10 

5.1.3.3.2 Quality of Services ........................................................................................ 5-10 

5.1.3.3.3 Gender Gap Reduction and Benefits for Young and Elderly Users.................. 5-10 

5.1.3.4. Ports, Logistic and Road Projects .................................................................. 5-11 

5.1.3.5. Social Risks in the Implementation of Infrastructure Projects and Mitigation 

Measures..................................................................................................... 5-11 

5.1.4 Environmental Assessment ..................................................................... 5-13 

5.1.4.1. Framework for EIA Assessment .................................................................... 5-13 

5.1.4.2. General Considerations about the Measures included in the Action Plan ........ 5-13 

5.1.4.3. Environmental Assessment of Infrastructure Projects ..................................... 5-14 

5.1.4.3.1 Road Transport ............................................................................................ 5-14 

5.1.4.3.2 Ports ............................................................................................................ 5-15 

5.1.4.3.3 Water Docking/Marinas ................................................................................. 5-19 

5.1.4.3.4 Airports ........................................................................................................ 5-19 

5.1.4.4. Environmental Assessment Results .............................................................. 5-19 

5.2 MULTI-CRITERIA RANKING OF ROAD PROJECTS ...................................................... 5-24 

5.2.1 Methodology ........................................................................................... 5-24 

5.2.1.1. Multi-criteria Assessment Approach .............................................................. 5-24 

5.2.1.2. Evaluation Criteria ........................................................................................ 5-25 

5.2.1.3. Weighting and Scoring of Evaluation Criteria ................................................. 5-26 

5.2.2 Results of Multi-criteria Ranking of Programs .......................................... 5-29 

5.3 INVESTMENT RATIONALIZATION WITH BUDGET CONSTRAINTS .............................. 5-30 

5.3.1 Methodology ........................................................................................... 5-30 

5.3.2 Financing Resources ............................................................................... 5-31 

5.3.3 Financing Programming by Mode of Transport ........................................ 5-31 


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SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM ACTION PLANS ................. 6-1 

6.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 6-1 

6.2 SUMMARY OF THE MEASURES PROPOSED FOR THE SHORT-TERM ........................... 6-1 

6.2.1 Roads ....................................................................................................... 6-2 

6.2.2 Public Transport ........................................................................................ 6-2 

6.2.3 Ports and Inland Waterways ...................................................................... 6-3 

6.2.4 Air Transport ............................................................................................. 6-3 

6.2.5 Logistics and Trade Facilitation ................................................................. 6-4 

6.3 MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM ACTION PLAN ................................................................ 6-4 

6.3.1 Summary of Projects, Measures and Overall Investments.......................... 6-4 

6.3.1.1. Infrastructure Projects ..................................................................................... 6-5 

6.3.1.2. Soft Measures ................................................................................................ 6-7 

6.3.2 Roads Projects and Measures ................................................................... 6-8 

6.3.2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 6-8 

6.3.2.2. Improving Road Maintenance Program............................................................ 6-9 

6.3.2.3. Bridges Replacement Program ..................................................................... 6-12 

6.3.2.4. Shoulder Increase on Primary Network.......................................................... 6-15 

6.3.2.5. Adding Road Sections & Bridges to the National Road Network ..................... 6-18 

6.3.2.6. Capacity-building Program on Data Collection ............................................... 6-22 

6.3.3 Public Transport Projects and Measures.................................................. 6-23 

6.3.3.1. Second Stage of the modernization of the Public Bus Service ........................ 6-24 

6.3.3.2. Renew / Build Bus Terminals in all Main Cities............................................... 6-28 

6.3.3.3. Develop Public Tansport Routes to Touristic Sites to Limit Charter Services 

Dependence for Tourism Services ................................................................ 6-31 

6.3.3.4. Water Taxi Development Program................................................................. 6-32 

6.3.4 Ports and Maritime Transport Projects and Measures .............................. 6-34 

6.3.4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 6-34 

6.3.4.2. Rationale ...................................................................................................... 6-35 

6.3.4.3. Competing Alternatives – Actions .................................................................. 6-39 

6.3.5 Air Transport Projects and Measures ....................................................... 6-48 

6.3.5.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 6-48 

6.3.5.2. Philip Goldson International Airport Capacity Increase ................................... 6-49 

6.3.5.3. Relocation of San Pedro Municipal Airport ..................................................... 6-54 

6.3.5.4. Placencia Airport .......................................................................................... 6-58 

6.3.6 Logistics and Trade Facilitation Projects and Measures ........................... 6-63 

6.3.6.1. Jalacte Border Post Designed Following Regular Standards (2025) ............... 6-63 

6.3.6.2. Professionalization of Road Freight Transport Sector ..................................... 6-65 

6.3.6.3. Regulating and Enforcing Weight Limits and Dimensions of Cargo Vehicles ... 6-66 

6.3.6.4. Logistics Statistics Generation ...................................................................... 6-71 

6.3.6.5. Border Crossing Infrastructure Design according to the Parameters of the 

Regional Strategy for Coordinated Border Management ................................ 6-72 

6.3.6.6. Implementation of Freight Transport Review Centers ..................................... 6-73 

6.3.6.7. Truck Fleet Renewal ..................................................................................... 6-74 

6.3.6.8. Elimination of Cargo Charge to Belizean Trucks at the Border with Mexico 

and Guatemala ............................................................................................ 6-75 

6.3.6.9. Optimize Trade Facilitation Processes ........................................................... 6-76 

6.3.7 Environmental and Energy Measures ...................................................... 6-78 

6.3.8 Summary of Actions ................................................................................ 6-80 

IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ......................................... 7-1 

7.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 7-1 

7.2 LEGAL AND REGULATORY INSTRUMENTS ................................................................. 7-1 

7.2.1 Private Sector Promotion Instruments ........................................................ 7-1 

7.2.2 Regulation on Professional Competence of Transport Operators ............... 7-2 

7.2.3 Revision of Minimum Conditions to become Transport Operator ................ 7-4 

7.2.3.1. Vehicle Registration and Licensing .................................................................. 7-4 

7.2.3.2. Driver’s License .............................................................................................. 7-6 

7.2.3.3. Institutional Set-up in the DoT ......................................................................... 7-7 


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7.2.4 Transport Diversification and Cross-Border Integrations Promotion 

Instruments ............................................................................................... 7-7 

7.2.5 Logistics and Transport Investment Promotion Instruments ....................... 7-8 

7.2.6 General Rules for the Implementation of the Multi-modal Integrated 

Transport ................................................................................................ 7-10 

7.3 THE TRANSPORT SECTOR PLANNING, MONITORING AND EVALUATION ................. 7-10 

7.3.1 Institutional Structure for the Transport Sector Planning........................... 7-10 

7.3.1.1. The Conceptual Structure ............................................................................. 7-10 

7.3.1.2. The Role of the Ministry of Transport in Planning ........................................... 7-13 

7.3.1.3. The Department of Public-Private Sector Dialogue in the Sector Planning ...... 7-14 

7.3.1.4. Other Agencies Involved in the Transport Sector Planning ............................. 7-14 

7.3.2 Institutional and Coordination Requirements ............................................ 7-15 

7.3.2.1. General Governance of the Transport Planning ............................................. 7-15 

7.3.2.2. Personnel and Resources Requirements ....................................................... 7-16 

7.3.2.3. Operational Requirements ............................................................................ 7-16 

7.3.2.4. Data Requirements ....................................................................................... 7-17 

7.3.3 Monitoring and Evaluation ....................................................................... 7-17 

7.3.3.1. Monitoring and Evaluation Procedures .......................................................... 7-17 

7.3.3.2. The CNTMP Targets and Indicators .............................................................. 7-18 

ANNEX 1: EXISTING SUGAR LOGISTICS AND OPTIONS ANALYSIS .... A-2 

ANNEX 2: BASELINE ANALYSIS ON VULNERABILITY, 

ADAPTABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ... A-7 

ANNEX 3: DEMAND FORECASTS METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS ..... A-26 

ANNEX 4: ANALYSIS OF PORT HINTERLAND EXPANSION 

POTENTIAL ............................................................................... A-149 

ANNEX 5: ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS . A-154 

ANNEX 6: ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY ......................... A-172 

ANNEX 7: COST ESTIMATES .................................................................... A-182 

ANNEX 8: PROJECT SUMMARY SHEETS ................................................ A-186 

ANNEX 9: 

SCHEMATICS OF A GENERIC MODEL FOR A PUBLIC- 

PRIVATE ASSOCIATION .......................................................... A-256 

ANNEX 10: FINANCIAL COMPARISON OF FREIGHT PORT OPTIONS .... A-257 


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List of Figures 

Figure 1: 

Figure 2: 

Figure 3: 

Figure 4: 

Figure 5: 

Figure 6: 

Figure 7: 

Figure 8: 

Highway Cross-section with Shoulder Increase ................................................... xxi 

Medium Term (2025 orange colour), Long Term – (2035 blue colour) and 

Strategic (green) Programs ................................................................................ xxii 

Location of Options for Cruise Terminal Proposals ........................................... xxvii 

Conceptual Design for Port of Magical Belize .................................................. xxviii 

Scheme for the Multi-purpose Second Berth and Bulk Facility in Port of Belize 

City ................................................................................................................. xxviii 

Configuration in Port of Belize City for Cruise and Freight Purposes. Left: 

Medium-term. Right: Long-term Development Possibilities (beyond 2035) ......... xxix 

Location of Commerce Bight Port ...................................................................... xxix 

Major Export and Import Flows .......................................................................... xxxi 

Figure 9: The Proposed New Units in the Department of Transport ................................ xxxvi 

Figure 1-1: Task and Deliverables ........................................................................................ 1-4 

Figure 1-2: Structure of the CNTMP ..................................................................................... 1-5 

Figure 2-1: Belize Districts' Borders ...................................................................................... 2-1 

Figure 2-2: Belize Government Organizational Chart ............................................................ 2-7 

Figure 2-3: Belize Primary Highways, Sea Ports and Airports ............................................. 2-18 

Figure 2-4: Road Pavement Conditions .............................................................................. 2-19 

Figure 2-5: Paved/ Unpaved Roads, by Districts ................................................................. 2-20 

Figure 2-6: Road Survey Locations .................................................................................... 2-22 

Figure 2-7: Base Year (2017) Road Assignment ................................................................. 2-24 

Figure 2-8: Aerial View of the Port of Belize........................................................................ 2-28 

Figure 2-9: Aerial Views of the Port of Big Creek ................................................................ 2-29 

Figure 2-10: Belizean and Tourist International Passenger Arrivals ...................................... 2-34 

Figure 2-11: PGIA International and Domestic Aircraft Movements 2006-2016 ..................... 2-35 

Figure 2-12: Updated National Ecosystems Map of Belize .................................................... 2-43 

Figure 2-13: Protected Areas Map of Belize ......................................................................... 2-44 

Figure 2-14: Left: Vulnerability to Floods; Right: Criticality of the Road Network .................... 2-46 

Figure 2-15: 

Figure 3-1: 

Figure 3-2: 

Priority Areas for Flood Vulnerability Reduction Investments under the Climate 

Resilient Infrastructure Project .......................................................................... 2-47 

Primary Highway (Improved Base Case) Traffic Assignment of Light (Car) 

Vehicles ............................................................................................................. 3-4 

Primary Highway (Improved Base Case) Traffic Assignment of Freight (Trucksall 

kind) Vehicles ................................................................................................ 3-5 

Figure 3-3: Primary Highway (Improved Base Case) Forecasted Level of Service 

(Congestion) ...................................................................................................... 3-6 

Figure 3-4: Tourism Destination Groupings (NSTMP) ........................................................... 3-7 

Figure 3-5: PGIA International and Domestic Aircraft Movements 2017-2035 ..................... 3-19 

Figure 3-6: PGIA Projected Passenger Movements 2017-2035 .......................................... 3-20 

Figure 4-1: Scoring for Criterion 1 ...................................................................................... 4-16 



Figure 4-4: Isochrones for Scenario A. Left: Belize City. Right: Belmopan ........................... 4-19 

Figure 4-5: Isochrones for Scenario B. Left: Belize City. Right: Belmopan ........................... 4-19 

Figure 4-6: Isochrones for Scenario B. Left: Belize City. Right: Belmopan ........................... 4-20 




Figure 4-10: MCA Final Results ........................................................................................... 4-25 


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Figure 4-11: Right-of-Way .................................................................................................... 4-35 

Figure 5-1: Distant Communities and Project Proposals ....................................................... 5-6 

Figure 6-1: 2-Lane, Highway Cross – Section .................................................................. 6-16 

Figure 6-2: Medium and Long – Term Proposal .............................................................. 6-19 

Figure 6-3: Level of Service in 2035 of the Action Plan................................................... 6-21 

Figure 6-4: Possible New Departure Pier for New Water Taxis between PGIA to Caye 

Caulker and San Pedro .................................................................................... 6-33 

Figure 6-5: Port of Belize .................................................................................................. 6-36 

Figure 6-6: Alternative Options for Cruise Terminals ..................................................... 6-38 

Figure 6-7: Conceptual Design for Port of Magical Belize .............................................. 6-39 

Figure 6-8: Navigational Chart of Belize Waters .............................................................. 6-40 

Figure 6-9: Scheme for the Multi-purpose Second Berth and Bulk Facility in Port of 

Belize .............................................................................................................. 6-41 

Figure 6-10: Configuration in Port of Belize for Cruise and Freight Purposes. Left: 

Medium-Term. Right: Possibilities for Future Developments in the very 

Long-Term (beyond 2035) .............................................................................. 6-42 

Figure 6-11: Existing pier at Commerce Bight port ........................................................... 6-44 

Figure 6-12: Scheme for the New Taxi-way at PGIA ............................................................. 6-50 

Figure 6-13: Violation of Approach Surface at 25 End of Runway ......................................... 6-51 

Figure 6-14: Apron Capacity Scheme ................................................................................... 6-52 

Figure 6-15: Existing Municipal Airport in San Pedro ............................................................ 6-54 

Figure 6-16: San Pedro Airport Violations ............................................................................. 6-55 

Figure 6-17: Scheme of the New Airport Characteristics ....................................................... 6-55 

Figure 6-18: Potential Areas for a New Domestic Airport in Ambergris Caye ......................... 6-57 

Figure 6-19: Placencia Area ................................................................................................. 6-58 

Figure 6-20: Existing Domestic Airport in Placencia .............................................................. 6-59 

Figure 6-21: Unfinished International Airport in Riversdale.................................................... 6-60 

Figure 7-1: Schematic Institutional Arrangement of a Possible National Transport Fund ....... 7-9 

Figure 7-2: Transport Planning Unit Governance ................................................................ 7-11 

Figure 7-3: Integrated Transport Information System .......................................................... 7-13 

Figure 7-4: Relationship between the Department of Public-Private Sector Dialogue and 

the Transport Planning Unit .............................................................................. 7-14 

Figure 7-5: Governance of the Transport Planning System ................................................. 7-15 

List of Tables 

Table 1: 

Table 2: 

Table 3: 

Table 4: 

Table 5: 

Table 6: 

Table 7: 

Table 8: 

Consolidated Daily Demand Forecasts (Weekly Average) ................................. xviii 

Selected Aerodromes Yearly Passenger Movements Forecasts ........................ xviii 

Summary of Road Investment in the Medium and Long-Term .............................. xxi 

Medium-Term (2025) Programs and Road Sections ........................................... xxii 

Long-Term (2035) Programs and Road Sections ............................................... xxiii 

Summary of Port Configurations for Freight and Cruises..................................... xxx 

Estimates of Financial Resources Available for the CNTMP............................. xxxiii 

Rough Estimate of Public Investment Needed to Finance CNTMP ................... xxxiv 

Table 2-1: Belize Road Network ........................................................................................ 2-17 

Table 2-2: Road Geometry Condition on Main Highways ................................................... 2-20 

Table 2-3: Cross Section Condition on Main Highways ...................................................... 2-20 

Table 2-4: 

Summary of Average Daily Trips/Passenger and Trips/Tons by Vehicle 

Group in 2017 ................................................................................................. 2-22 


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Table 2-5: Regional Comparison of Roads ........................................................................ 2-26 

Table 2-6: Physical Characteristics of the Port of Belize .................................................... 2-28 

Table 2-7: Physical Characteristics of the Port of Big Creek .............................................. 2-29 

Table 2-8: PGIA Airside Characteristics ............................................................................ 2-34 

Table 2-9: Prescribed Domestic Airports ........................................................................... 2-35 

Table 2-10: Landing Movements at Selected Aerodromes, 2007-2016 ................................ 2-38 

Table 2-11: Domestic Air Traffic March-July 2017 ............................................................... 2-38 

Table 3-1: Summary of Daily Average Trips/Passengers by Vehicle Group and Travel 

Purpose in 2025 ................................................................................................. 3-2 

Table 3-2: Summary of Daily Average Trips/Passengers by Vehicle Group and Travel 

Purpose in 2035 ................................................................................................. 3-2 

Table 3-3: Summary of Daily Average Trips/Trucks by Category of Truck in 2025 ............... 3-3 

Table 3-4: Summary of Daily Average Trips/Trucks by Category of Truck in 2035 .............. 3-3 

Table 3-5: Tourism Overnight Distribution per Destination ................................................... 3-8 

Table 3-6: Overnight Tourists Forecast (NSTMP)................................................................ 3-9 

Table 3-7: Overnight Tourists Forecast per destination (NSTMP - adjusted) ...................... 3-10 

Table 3-8: Cruise Tourists Forecast (NSTMP)................................................................... 3-11 

Table 3-9: Key Export Products Forecasts (all ports, in tons) ............................................. 3-13 

Table 3-10: Key Export Products: Breakdown by Ports (in tons) .......................................... 3-14 

Table 3-11: Historical Data of Container Traffic ................................................................... 3-15 

Table 3-12: Proposed Elasticity Factors for Container Growth ............................................. 3-15 

Table 3-13: Container Traffic Forecasts .............................................................................. 3-15 

Table 3-14: Historical Data on Oil Imports and Relation to GDP .......................................... 3-16 

Table 3-15: Oil Imports Forecasts ....................................................................................... 3-16 

Table 3-16: Port of Belize Traffic Forecasts (2015-2035)..................................................... 3-17 

Table 3-17: Big Creek Port Traffic Forecasts (2015-2035)................................................... 3-18 

Table 3-18: Selected Domestic Aerodromes – Projected Landings 2017-2035 .................... 3-21 

Table 3-19: Selected Domestic Aerodromes – Projected Passenger Arrivals 2017-2035 ..... 3-21 

Table 3-20: Summary Trips/Passenger Flow Water Taxi & Public Transport Forecasts ....... 3-22 

Table 3-21: Summary of Demand Forecasts ....................................................................... 3-23 

Table 4-1: Rationale for Scenarios A, B and C .................................................................... 4-5 

Table 4-2: Weighting of the Main Criteria .......................................................................... 4-15 

Table 4-3: Weight System for Criterion 1 ........................................................................... 4-15 

Table 4-4: Weighting System for Criterion 2 ...................................................................... 4-16 


Table 4-6 Isochrones Results for the Calculation of Average Access Time to Belmopan 

(all columns are in inhabitants unless indicated differently). Horizon 2035 ......... 4-18 




Table 4-10: Cost Estimation (only potential public investment) by Scenario ......................... 4-24 

Table 4-11: Road Investment Projects and Programs for the Selected Supply Scenario ...... 4-26 

Table 4-12: Other Modes Investment Projects and Programs for the Selected Supply 

Scenario........................................................................................................... 4-27 

Table 4-13: Soft Measures Projects and Programs.............................................................. 4-27 

Table 4-14: Main Proposed Legislative Changes ................................................................. 4-33 

Table 4-15: Resilience and Adaptation Guidelines for Transport Infrastructure .................... 4-41 

Table 5-1: Investment and Maintenance Costs (in million USD) ........................................... 5-2 

Table 5-2: Economic Evaluation Results ............................................................................. 5-4 

Table 5-3: Distance and Time Reductions from/to Belize City (Projects Implemented) ......... 5-6 


Page x



Table 5-4: Road Project Beneficiaries ................................................................................. 5-7 

Table 5-5: Time Reduction to Educative Institutions (Project Implemented) ......................... 5-9 

Table 5-6: Time Reduction to Educative Institutions (Project Implemented) ......................... 5-9 

Table 5-7: Environmental Impacts for Road Projects ......................................................... 5-15 

Table 5-8: Environmental Impacts for Port Projects ........................................................... 5-16 

Table 5-9: Water Quality Threats and their Environmental Impacts .................................... 5-17 

Table 5-10: Impacts of Airport Construction......................................................................... 5-19 

Table 5-11: Summary of Environmental Impacts ................................................................. 5-20 

Table 5-12: Road Programs ................................................................................................ 5-24 

Table 5-13: Criteria for Scoring Redundancy ....................................................................... 5-26 

Table 5-14: Scoring of the Economic Criteria ...................................................................... 5-26 

Table 5-15: Scoring of the Cost Criteria............................................................................... 5-27 

Table 5-16: Scoring of the Social Impact Criteria ................................................................. 5-27 

Table 5-17: Scoring of the Environmental Impact Criteria .................................................... 5-28 

Table 5-18: Scoring of the Resilience Criteria ...................................................................... 5-29 

Table 5-19: Weighting Criteria ............................................................................................. 5-29 

Table 5-20: Ranking of Programs ........................................................................................ 5-29 

Table 5-21 Estimated Available National Expenditure for Transport Infrastructure 

Investment from the National Budget (in M USD) .............................................. 5-31 

Table 5-22: Estimated Available National Expenditure for Transport Infrastructure 

Investment including IFI Participation (in M USD) ............................................. 5-31 

Table 5-23: Estimated Required Expenditure for Transport Infrastructure Investment (USD 

million) ............................................................................................................. 5-32 

Table 6-1: Road Projects investments (Estimated investment costs in M USD).................... 6-5 

Table 6-2: Other infrastructure projects investments ............................................................ 6-6 

Table 6-3: Projects by funding source (amounts in M USD) ................................................. 6-6 

Table 6-4: Projects by funding source (amounts in M USD) ................................................. 6-8 

Table 6-5: 

Table 6-6: 

Table 6-7: 

Table 6-8: 

Table 6-9: 

Table 6-10: 

Optimal Road Maintenance Program (US$), Medium and Long – Term 

Action Plan (2021 – 2025)............................................................................... 6-10 


Action Plan (2026 – 2030)............................................................................... 6-10 


Action Plan (2031 – 2035)............................................................................... 6-10 

Road Maintenance Budget by Period, Optimal Program (US$), Medium, 

Long – Term Action (2021 – 2025) ................................................................. 6-10 

Road Maintenance Budget by Period, Optimal Program (US$), Medium, Long 

– Term Action (2026 – 2030) ............................................................................ 6-11 

Road Maintenance Budget by Period, Optimal Program (US$), Medium, Long 

– Term Action (2031 – 2035) ............................................................................ 6-11 

Table 6-11: MoW Bridge Replacement, Primary Network, Medium–term Action Plan ... 6-13 

Table 6-12: MoW Bridge Replacement, Secondary Network, Medium–term Action 

Plan ................................................................................................................. 6-13 

Table 6-13: MoW Bridge Replacement, Primary Network, Long–term Action Plan ........ 6-14 

Table 6-14: MoW Bridge Replacement, Secondary Network, Long–term Action Plan ... 6-14 

Table 6-15: Shoulder Widening, Primary Network, Medium – Term Action Plan ............ 6-18 

Table 6-16: Programs included for the medium term ........................................................... 6-20 

Table 6-17: Programs included for the long term ................................................................. 6-20 

Table 6-18: Summary of road investments .......................................................................... 6-22 

Table 6-19: Daily Origin / destination of passengers per city ................................................ 6-29 

Table 6-20: Four-phase developmental to achieve Commerce Bight Port fully 

operational by year 2022 ................................................................................ 6-45 


Page xi



Table 6-21: Summary of port configurations for freight and cruises .............................. 6-47 

Table 6-22: Maximum load permitted per vehicle type in Guatemala and Mexico (t) ............ 6-67 

Table 6-23: Maximum load permitted per vehicle type in Guatemala and Mexico (t) 

(continue)......................................................................................................... 6-68 

Table 6-24: Maximum load permitted per axle in Guatemala (t) ........................................... 6-69 

Table 6-25: Maximum load permitted per axle in Mexico (t) ................................................. 6-70 

Table 6-26: Maximum load permitted per axle in Central America (t) ................................... 6-70 

Table 7-1: Minimum Requirements for Vehicle Registration ................................................. 7-4 

Table 7-2: Vehicle Permit Categories .................................................................................. 7-5 

Table 7-3: Minimum Requirements for Driver Licenses ........................................................ 7-7 

Table 7-4: Transport Sector Objectives, targets and indicators .......................................... 7-18 


Page xii



Acronyms and Abbreviations 

AADT 

ALOS 

ATS 

AASHTO 

ATC 

BAA 

BACC 

BAHA 

BCAA 

BIL 

BMA 

BMVRALS 

BPA 

BSI 

BTB 

BZD 

Ca1 

Ca2 

CAD 

CAGR 

CARICOM 

CEO 

CITO 

CNTMP 

CDB 

CSF 

Cu 

DMRB 

DFID 

EIRR 

EU 

FHWA 

GEH 

GHE 

GHG 

GIS 

GOB 

GTC 

HCM 

Annual Average Daily Traffic 

Average Length of Stay 

Average Travel Speed 

American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials 

Air Traffic Control 

Belize Airport Authority 

Belize Airport Concession Company 

Belize Agricultural Health Authority 

Belize Civil Aviation Authority 

Belize Infrastructure Limited 

Border Management Agency 

Belize Motor Vehicle Registration and Licensing Systems 

Belize Port Authority 

Belize Sugar Industries 

Belize Tourism Board 

Belizean Dollar 

Articulated Trucks 1 (5-6-axle vehicles) - Trailer 

Articulated Trucks 2 (7-or more-axle vehicles) – Full Trailer 

Civil Aviation Department 

Compounded Annual Growth Rate 

Caribbean Community 

Chief Executive Officer 

Central Information Technology Office 

Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan for Belize 

Caribbean Development Bank 

Critical Success Factor 

Single Unit Trucks (2-4-axle vehicles) - Semi Trailer 

Design Manual for Roads and Bridges – UK 

Department for International Development - UK 

Economic Internal Rate of Return 

European Union 

Federal Highway Administration of the United States Department of 

Transportation 

Geoffrey E. Havers formula 

Green House Effect 

Green House Gases 

Geographic Information System 

Government of Belize 

Generalized Transportation Cost 

Highway Capacity Manual 


Page xiii



HDM-4 

HMA 

ICAO 

IIC 

ICDF 

IDB 

IDP 

IFI 

IMMARBE 

IMO 

iRAP 

IRI 

IT 

IW 

IWT 

LPG 

LOS 

KFAED 

MED 

MoE 

MoF 

MoH 

MoT 

MoW 

MoA 

NEMO 

NBMVLRS 

NPV 

OD 

OFID 

OPEC 

O&M 

PGIA 

PoB 

PoE 

PTSF 

PPP 

PSO 

RMSE 

SICA 

SMA 

Highway Development and Management software 

Hot Mixed Asphalt 

International Civil Aviation Organization 

Interamerican Investment Corporation 

International Cooperation and Development Fund – Taiwan 

Inter-American Development Bank 

International Driving Permit convention 

International Finance Institutions 

International Merchant Marine Registry of Belize 

International Marine Organization 

International Road Assessment Program 

International Roughness Index 

Information Technology 

Inland Waterways 

Inland Water Transport 

Liquefied Petroleum Gas 

Level of Service 

Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development 

Ministry of Economic Development 

Ministry of Education 

Ministry of Finance 

Ministry of Health 

Ministry of Transport and NEMO 

Ministry of Works 

Ministry of Agriculture 

National Emergency Management Organization 

National Belize Motor Vehicle Licensing and Registration System 

Net Present Value 

Origin - Destination 

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for International 

Development 

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 

Operating and Maintenance 

Philip Goldson International Airport 

Port of Belize 

Port of Entry 

Percentage of Time Spent Following 

Public – Private Partnership 

Public Service Obligation contracts 

Root mean square error 

Central America Integration System 

Stone Mastic Asphalt 


Page xiv



SP 

SSC 

SIB 

TA 

TEU 

TTC 

UNDP 

USD 

VIN 

VOC 

Vp 

VR 

WADT 

WB 

WEF 

YOURS 

Stated Preference 

Santander Sugar Company 

Statistical Institute of Belize 

Technical Assistance 

Twenty Feet Equivalent unit 

Travel Time Cost 

United Nations Development Program 

US Dollar 

Vehicle Identification Number 

Vehicle Operating Costs 

Equivalent light vehicle flow for the peak period of 15 min 

Vehicle Registration 

Weekly Average Daily Traffic 

World Bank 

World Economic Forum 

Youth for Road Safety program 


Page xv



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

INTRODUCTION 

Belize has been identified as a country with high development potential. This identification is 

based on the country's wealth of natural resources on which its headline industries of agriculture 

and tourism are based. Agriculture is concentrated in a few export commodities (sugar, citrus 

products and bananas) and other high-value exports (marine products and crude oil). Largely 

unspoiled natural and archaeological sites are also on offer throughout the country as highly 

attractive tourist destinations that can be sustainably exploited by means of ecologically-friendly 

and responsible tourism activities. 

Realizing Belize’s full potential, however, faces limitations due to the country's weak transport 

infrastructure network (Roads, Ports and Aviation), which inhibits the performance of its key 

sectors. At the same time, the limited availability of resources that can be invested in the 

development of the transport sector requires well-coordinated and holistically planned actions to 

ensure their efficient and effective use. 

Towards this end, the Government of Belize has received a grant from the Inter-American 

Development Bank (IDB) towards preparing a Comprehensive National Transportation Master 

Plan (CNTMP), which has been coordinated by The Department of Public/Private-sector Dialogue 

in the Office of the Prime Minister. The CNTMP preparation process has now been successfully 

concluded (as of February 2018), resulting from extensive consultation with key relevant public 

authorities and a broad cross-section of private-sector stakeholders. The overall objective of the 

CNTMP is to create a Master Plan that facilitates better sector planning and a more efficient and 

effective transport of freight and people within Belize, and between Belize and its main trading 

partners. 

The expected benefits include positive impacts on development of the country’s agriculture and 

tourism sectors, as well as, a more socially inclusive, cohesive, and climate change adaptable 

and resilient Belize. 

2. TRANSPORT POLICY AND STRATEGY 

The overall national development strategy is predicated on the: 

n 

n 

n 

Horizon 2030 report which provides the vision of a future Belize as “a country of 

peace and tranquility, where citizens live in harmony with the natural environment and 

enjoy a high quality of life”. 

Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy 2016-2019 (GSDS) document that 

describes the actionable strategy to achieving the country’s short-term development 

vision. 

National Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030 (NDF) which provides a 

full range of Belize policies, programs and projects. 

The GSDS and the NDF emphasize the need for the transport sector to support the tourism and 

agricultural sectors’ development with environmentally-friendly and climate resilient and 

adaptable infrastructure and supporting policies, along with the active collaboration of the private- 


Page xvi



sector. Within that framework, the overarching transport strategy and policy must meet the vision 

of: 

“An effective and efficient transport system providing smooth operations for 

freight and passengers without requiring excessive resources; aiming for 

social equity by providing accessibility to all, especially to those who have 

less; sensitive to environmental preservation with a focus on mitigation and 

adaption to climate change; and enhancing Belize’s growth by supporting 

development opportunities in all economic sectors” 

The selected supply scenario for the CNTMP that follows responds to this vision and its objectives 

are aligned with those of Belize’s GSDS: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

To develop infrastructure networks to support in a balanced way the two key drivers 

of the Belizean economy: tourism and agriculture. 

To increase the quality of service of the public transport system in all its dimensions 

(efficiency, quantity, safety, sustainability and financial viability) so that all Belizeans, 

regardless of their level of income, can meet their mobility needs. 

To develop the capacity of public institutions and private operators in all sub-sectors 

so the country can handle more ambitious projects in the future. 

To raise the safety standards of the transport system in all its sub-sectors with a focus 

on road safety. 

To increase the resilience of the transport system against climate change by 

increasing the robustness of the system and creating major redundancies for backups 

to strategic infrastructure. 

To establish proper coordination mechanisms between key public and private 

institutions to create a framework of efficient communication through which to 

accelerate the processes for project preparation and implementation, as well as, for 

transport sector reforms. 

To explore different funding options, public and private, leading to a more financially 

sustainable transport system in which maintenance needs can be adequately 

budgeted for without abandoning the investments in new projects. 

3. DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC FORECAST 

Belize has a land area of approximately 23,000 sq. km and an estimated population of 378,000 

inhabitants as of 2016, resulting in an average population density of 16.4 persons per km. Over 

half of the population reside in the Belize and the Cayo Districts, which are also the most 

urbanized (73% and 50% urbanized, respectively). The least populated and least urbanized 

district is Toledo (in south Belize). According to Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) estimates, the 

population is expected to reach 419,000 in 2020 and 562,000 inhabitants by 2035. 

SIB reports that, in 2016, the country’s GDP was estimated at about, $2.83 billion BZD and that 

the per capita GDP was 7,511 BZD. During the period 2005-2015, real GDP increased on the 

average by about 3.5% per year, with some variations. The SIB estimates an average annual 

growth rate of about 2.3% per annum up to the year 2020 and, given population growth, SIB of a 

potential stagnation of per GDP capita. However, future development, as predicated in the GSDS 

is expected to be boosted by investments in the agricultural, agroindustry and tourism sectors 

and the CNTMP considers a growing GDP rate up to 3.5% in 2030-2035. 


Page xvii



The economy of Belize depends on a few key exports, most notably tourism services and 

agriculture products (sugar, citrus, bananas). Thus, transport infrastructure needs to cater for the 

efficiency and growth of these industries. 

4. TRANSPORT DEMAND 

The following Table 1 consolidates the daily demand forecasts (weekly average) of road vehicles 

passengers (cars, public transport) and freight tons (semi-trailer, trailer and full trailer), water taxi 

passengers and domestic aviation passengers. In all cases, transport demand in 2035 will almost 

double that of today’s demand. 

Table 1: 

Consolidated Daily Demand Forecasts (weekly average) 

Year 

Base year 

(2017) 

2025 2035 

Private road vehicle (Passengers) 64,530 83,908 109,884 

Public Transport (Passengers) 42,459 58,793 76,390 

Water Taxi (Passengers) 2,113 2,812 3,780 

Domestic Aviation (Passengers) 2,433 2,950 3,441 

Trucks (Tons) 31,472 40,058 55,992 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017} 

A significant portion of the passengers will be international tourists, either arriving on cruise ships 

or included in the overnight arrivals segment arriving by air and land. Based on the National 

Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP), cruise tourists are forecasted to grow from 1,005,394 

in 2016 to 1,997,750 in 2035 or just about doubling over the 20-year period. Overnight tourists 

are expected to grow from 385,583 in 2016 to 782,517 in 2035, with the Southern and South 

Eastern Coast regions of Belize experiencing the highest growth rate. 

In part, resulting from the increased tourist movements but also due to Belize’s own development, 

the Philip Goldson International Airport (PGIA) passenger movements (arrivals and departures, 

international and domestic) are expected to grow from 974,317 in 20016 to 2,111,953 in 2035. 

Passenger movement at domestic aerodromes is forecast to grow at a more moderate pace (see 

Table 2). 

Table 2: 

Selected aerodromes yearly passenger movements forecasts 

Aerodrome 2016 2025 2035 

Barry Bowen 150,192 182,133 212,414 

Caye Caulker 26,760 28,177 32,862 

Placencia 46,340 56,195 65,538 

Dangriga 38,628 46,843 54,631 

John Grieff II 146,174 177,260 206,731 

Totals 408,094 490,609 572,176 

In terms of port cargo movements, in 2016 import and export movements were 781,367 and 

446,140 tons respectively, distributed between Port of Belize and the Port of Big Creek. In 2035 

the expected import and export movements are forecasted to be 1,247,033 and 720,821 tons 

respectively. The actual distribution of cargo between ports will depend on the port development 


Page xviii



options finally selected, depending particularly on decision-making regarding potential 

investments in Commerce Bight. 

To cope with the expected future demands, and in line with the national development and 

transport sector vision, objectives and strategices, the CNTMP incorporates integrated, 

multisector, short, medium and lon-term action plans. The following sections outline baseline 

conditions and short, medium and long-term recommendations derived through the process of 

preparing the CNTMP for Belize for the sectors covering: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Roads and Road Transport. 

Public (Bus) and Water Taxi transport. 

Air transport and Aviation. 

Ports and Maritime Transport. 

Trade and Logistics Facilitation. 

Environmental and Energy actions 

5. ROADS AND ROAD TRANSPORT 

5.1 Baseline conditions – Major road transport problems and issues 

The main problems identified during the review of the existing situation are the following: 

v Deficiencies in the road maintenance system. In Belize’s Primary Highway 

Network, 27% of the surface is in poor condition, 69% in fair condition and only 4% 

in good condition. Raveling, potholes, and edge cracking are found along the entire 

network. Several elements play a role in the shortcomings of road maintenance such 

as insufficient budget, outdated construction methods, and lack of control of vehicle 

weights and overloads. 

v Road Safety. There are more accidents in Belize on average than other Central 

American countries. Poor road safety in Belize can be attributed to: infrastructure 

(reduced amount of vertical and horizontal signage, narrow bridges in poor conditions 

and insufficient shoulder width); behavior of drivers (speeding and other traffic 

regulation violations); and condition of vehicles (limited to no technical inspection of 

vehicles enforced). 

v Below-average quality of the road network. The quality of Belizean roads is below 

the average considering they have been qualified as poor (3.0) compared to other 

countries in the region (3.7) and the rest of the world (3.5). 

v Insufficiency of redundancies in the road network. Low road coverage resulting 

in low road accessibility and preponderance of unpaved roads. In many cases, there 

is only one acceptable road access, and this results in a high vulnerability of the road 

network to natural disasters. 

v Lack of capacity in the road transport sector. The lack of capacity manifests itself 

not only in the public sector but also in the private sector. Capacity problems at the 

Ministry of Works (MoW) seem to be mainly a problem of lack of staff, which reduces 

the efficacy of trainings. Private-sector capacity problems are more complex 

(concentrated market structure with reduced size of companies, reduced knowledge 

of state of the art construction methods and IFIs procedures), requiring a coordinated 

effort between public and private sectors. 

Given these baseline challenges, the following short, medium and long-term actions are 

recommended for Roads and Road Transport: 

5.2 Short-term actions (in 2-3 years) 


Page xix



v Adding Road Sections & Bridges to the National Road Network. This proposed 

action plan involves upgrading to highway standard of 10.8 miles of road and the 

construction of three (3) bridges (Crooked Tree – Philip Goldson Highway; Baking 

Pot (George Price Highway) – Toward Spanish Lookout with new bridge; Cotton Tree 

– More Tomorrow – Meditation (Santander) with new bridge; and Branch Mouth Park 

Bridge) 

v Improving Road Maintenance Program. A well-designed surface road 

maintenance program to provide full operational service. Inclusion of horizontal 

signs, vertical furniture and major bridge maintenance. Upgrade maintenance 

software to HDM – 4 Version 2. 

v Bridges Replacement Program along the Primary Highways. Replace thirteen 

(13) single-lane bridges of the Primary Highway Network and six (6) of the Secondary 

Road Network by dual-lane bridges. 

v Replicating National Road Safety Project. Continue with the Road Safety Project 

for the complete road network. 

v New Manual of Standards. Prepare and implement a Manual of Standards, adapted 

to the orography and specific characteristics of the country. 

v Protect Road Assets from Overloads – TA Program. Implement an efficient 

system to monitor the weight of vehicles and enforce the adopted legislation. 

v Scholarship Program to educate future staff of MoW and DoT. Create a 

scholarship program for Belizean students that would fund studies in areas of interest 

for MoW and DoT. 

v Identify the Options for a pilot PPP. Assess the different funding possibilities to 

implement PPP arrangements for operations and maintenance of roads. 

5.4 Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2035) Actions 

v Improving Road Maintenance Program. Each new road must be considered 

separately according to the route they cover. The tasks considered for the optimal 

maintenance program in the Short – Term Action Plan, should be part of the 

maintenance program for the Medium and Long – Term Action Plan. The 

maintenance program should consider the new widened surface and lay-bys for 

busses. 

v Bridges Replacement Program. Medium-term: Replace three (3) bridges in the 

primary network and one in the secondary network. Long-term: Increase width and 

hydraulic capacity of four (4) bridges in the primary network and three in the 

secondary network. 

v Shoulder Increase on Primary Network. The proposed widening shall consider two 

lanes (one per direction) of 11 ft. 6 in each (23 ft. total) and shoulders of 6 ft. 6 in 

each (13 ft. total). (See 

v Figure 1). Philip 

Goldson Highway 

is already 

scheduled to be 

widened in the 

short-term. For the 

medium–term, all 

other main 

highways should 

be widened: 

n George Price 

Highway – 79miles 

n 

Hattieville – Boom Highway – 12 miles 


Page xx



n 

n 

n 

Hummingbird Highway – 79 miles 

Southern Highway – 101 miles 

Jalacte Road – 23 miles 

Figure 1: Highway cross-section with shoulder increase 

v Improve the National Road Network. The CNTMP includes recommendations for 

the medium and long-term for the upgrade and construction of roads to improve 

access for rural areas and improve overall connectivity, following the improvements 

included in the short-term actions. (Note: Caracol Road improvement and Manatee 

Highway improvement are considered as programd, funded and realized in the shortterm.) 

v Capacity-building program on data collection. This constitutes a continuation of 

enhancing the governance capacities of the MoW to better plan for the road 

maintenance and expansions. It includes the capacity-building program on data 

collection covering the following topics: Traffic counts; Origin-Destination surveys; 

Stated Preference surveys; mobile phone data and its applications to transport 

planning; and data analysis and O-D matrix estimation. 

Table 3 summarizes the medium and long-term road improvements, including highway widening, 

rural roads upgrades and new roads. It also includes the investment cost estimates with climate 

change and road safety improvements, the recommended option. 

Table 3: 

Horizon 

Summary of Road Investment in the Medium and Long Term 

Highways 

widening 

(miles) 

Rural roads 

upgrade 

(miles) 

New 

developments 

(miles) 

Cost with Climate Change and 

Road Safety improvements 

(M USD) 

Medium 294 147 7 125,6 

Long 0 142 94 234,0 

Figure 2 shows the location and road sections of the medium term (orange in the map) and longterm 

(blue in the map) programs respectively which are listed in Table 4 and Table 5. 


Page xxi



Figure 2: Medium Term (2025 orange colour), Long Term – (2035 blue colour) and 

strategic (green) programs 

Table 4: 

Medium Term (2025) Programs and Road Sections 

Program 

number 

R1 

R2 

R6 

Program name 

Widening of main 

corridors program - 

East 



South 

Bullet Tree Falls - La 

Democracia rural 

variant program 

Project Name 

Length 

(miles) 

Widening of George Price Highway 79 

Widening of Hattieville – Boom Highway 12 

Widening of Hummingbird Highway 79 

Widening of Southern Highway 101 

Widening of Jalacte road 23 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch MoUth park bridge - Santa Familia - 

Spanish Lookout 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation Bridge- La 

Democracia 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 9 

9 

40 


Page xxii



R9 

R3 

R5 

By-passes and urban 

roads program 

Orange Walk rural 

roads program 

Maskall - Old Northern 

Highway program 

Chan Chen - San Pedro – (Corozal Bypass) 11 

San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot 2 

Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 5 

Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - Orange Walk 26 

Progreso - Copper Bank 6 

Maskall - Bomba 4 

Carmelita - Maskall (old northern highway) 22 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - X miles 10 

Maskall - Nago Bank 2 

Table 5: 

Long Term (2035) Programs and Road Sections 

Program 

number 

Program name 

Project Name 

Length 

(miles) 

R4 

R7 

R12 

R8 

R10 

R11 

North-eastern tourist 

and rural roads 

program 

South Cayo rural roads 

program 

New North-South 

Highway by Guinea 

Grass 

Southern rural roads 

Altun Ha -Lamanai- 

San Felipe Corridor 

Belize City external 

bypass 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town 9 

Chunox - Copper Bank 3 

Chunox - Sarteneja 17 

Barton Creek Farm Road 4 

Seven Mile Farm Road 2 

Tea Kettle Farm Road 8 

Guinea Grass Highway (Tower Hill -Guinea Grass-Shipyard- 

Lamanai-Belmopan, including connection to San Felipe road) 

San Jose Road 12 

San Miguel Road (Silver Creek Road - San Pedro Columbia loop) 9 

Red Bank Village Road 5 

Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco 17 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito 25 

Lucky Strike (Altun ha) - Philip Goldson highway 16 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San Felipe 22 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Chan road 31 

56 

Figure 2 also shows two projects identified by stakeholders as being of strategic importance, to 

give access to national security sensitive areas to the west of the country: 

n North-South Highway via Gallon Jug. This highway would provide improved 

connectivity to Orange Walk District and would provide a highway connection to the 

western border. Current traffic is low and beneficiary population low as well. 

Investment cost is estimated to around USD 100 million. 

n Caracol – Southern Highway. Going through the Maya Mountains, this highway would 

provide a unique connection between Toledo District and the fertile north side of Cayo 

District, creating an important redundancy, and would provide a highway connection 

to the southwestern border. Current traffic is very low or non-existent and beneficiary 

population is also low. Investment cost has yet to be estimated but it is expected to be 

high due to the terrain. 

6. PUBLIC (BUS) AND WATER TAXI TRANSPORT 

6.1 Baseline conditions – Major public transport issues 


Page xxiii




n 

n 

n 

n 

Absence of a vehicle and licenses database. The registration is done by the 

Department of Transport (DoT) and the municipalities separately, with no integration 

of data and, thus, with no possibility of doing any analysis of national vehicle fleet and 

licenses. In part, due to the lack of data, there are no adequate tools to define policies 

on: vehicle fleet (age, emissions, taxes) and understanding the structure of the 

profession, among other aspects. 

Deficient organization of bus transport sector, including: inappropriate bus stop 

infrastructure; very old fleet: lack of data on bus passenger profiles; oversupply of 

small operators, lack of policy on permits issuing; and few formally constituted public 

transport companies. 

Lack of modern infrastructure. 

Limited MoT capacity. 


recommended for the public transport (bus) and water taxi sectors: 

6.2 Short-term Actions (in 2-3 years) 

v Action 1: National Belize Motor Vehicle Registration and Licensing System, 

with a single database - connecting municipalities and DoT, under MoT (hosted by 

CITO), and as a first step toward a Transport Information System. 

v Action 2: Developing Bus Stops Program for Inter-city Bus Service. 

v Action 3: First stage of Modernizing Public Bus Service and Permit Issue, with 

the modification of permit duration, from the current 2 years to 8 to 10 years, tied with 

an increase in the bus operating permit requirements by MoT in terms of organization 

of companies, fleet and service characteristics, and safety. 

v Action 4: Design, build and operate the new inter-city bus terminal of Belize City 

planned as a PPP. 

v Action 5: Institutional strengthening of the Ministry of Transport. 

6.3 Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2035) actions 

v Second stage of the modernization of the Public Bus Service, by promoting the 

formation of formal public transport companies, including new infrastructure to 

improve operations; redesigning the overall bus network, including feeders and first 

class inter-city services; and developing electronic ticketing. 

v Renew / build bus terminals in all main cities, by starting with the cities on the 

western corridor (Belmopan, San Ignacio, and Benque Viejo), followed by the cities 

on the northern corridor (Orange Walk and Corozal) and finally the cities on the 

southern corridor (Dangriga, Placencia, and Punta Gorda). 

v Develop special public transport routes to touristic attractions, starting with 

possible pilot projects to Altun Ha and Caves Branch with 2 daily runs with small 

buses. 

v Water taxi development program, by developing water taxi / marina piers in Bomba 

(including cargo terminal), Sarteneja, Punta Gorda, and Vista del Mar (to serve Philip 

Goldson International Airport). 

v Capacity-building program, by strengthening the Belize Ports Authority (BPA) on 

water taxi management and the drafting of new regulations. 

7. AIR TRANSPORT AND AVIATION 

7.1 Baseline conditions – Major airports and aviation issues 



Page xxiv



n 

n 

n 

Congested Belizean air space, with a high number of small aircrafts operating, 

combined with a small pool of air controllers and airports operating during daylight 

hours only. 

Improvements needed at regional aerodromes, including measures to address 

security shortcomings (perimeter fencing, security procedures); urgent repair for Caye 

Caulker runway (under way); and long-term vision required for San Pedro and 

Placencia municipal airports. 

Institutional framework for civil aviation in Belize are not currently in line with ICAO 

recommendations. 


recommended for air transport and aviation: 

7.2 Short-term Actions (in 2-3 years): 

v Action 1 – Strengthen the Governance Structure and Operational Conditions, 

bolstering the Civil Aviation Department (CAD) regulatory oversight functions; 

strengthening the Belize Airports Authority (BAA), preparing additional air traffic 

controllers and increasing capacity in air traffic management; and implementing an 

‘air slots’ system to avoid a concentration of flights in short periods. 

v Action 2 - Address Shortcomings in Security Arrangements at Regional 

Aerodromes, including fencing required for Dangriga, Placiencia, and Caye Caulker 

and security procedures (ID checking, baggage screening) 

v Action 3 - Upgrade the Runway at Caye Caulker, with a first Phase 1 resurfacing 

(underway) and a second phase total rehabilitation, runway widening, shore 

protection & installation of runway lighting. 

v Action 4 - Develop Airport Master Plans for Philip Goldson International Airport, 

San Pedro and Placencia. 

7.3 Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2035) actions: 

v Philip Goldson International Airport Capacity Increase, including extending 

existing parallel taxiway to the east end of the runway to increase airfield movements 

capacity from the current 20-25 movements to 30-35 movements in a first phase and 

to about 40-45 in a second phase; increasing runway end safety area at both ends 

of the runway and doubling terminal area by 2035 and separating arrival and 

departure, international and national flows. 

v Relocation of San Pedro Municipal Airport to a new site north of San Pedro Town, 

capable of serving larger aircrafts, with 18 – 50 seats. 

v Relocation of Placencia Municipal Airport or opening a second Placencia Airport, 

capable of serving larger aircrafts, with 18 – 50 seats. 

v Continue the capacity-building support to Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) and 

Belize Airports Authority (BAA). 

8. PORTS AND MARITIME TRANSPORT 

8-1 Baseline conditions – Major ports and maritime issues 


n 

n 

n 

On institutional framework, capacity and operations 

Outdated legislation 

Maritime administration shared between BPA, IMMARBE and Ministry of Natural 

Resources and Environment 


Page xxv



n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Existing framework not favorable to cooperation between public and private sectors 

on decision process 

BPA requiring additional capacity building in several areas (legal drafting, IT and 

security, emergency response and marine salvage 

System of stevedoring activities is inefficient and costly 

On ports capacity 

Port of Belize: 

– 48,000 containers in 2015, +7% CAGR last 6 years 

– King’s Wharf characteristics: 

Short and narrow wharf with a unique berth 63 m (220 ft.) long accessible 

via a long and narrow one-way access trestle 

Maximum theoretical capacity of 70,000 containers and very limited 

available capacity for bulk and general cargo 

Long waiting times for bulk carriers 

Improving handling equipment could increase capacity in the short-term 

Berth extension from 67 m (220 ft.) to 200 m (656 ft.) increase capacity to 

80,000 – 90,000 containers, still limited for medium - long term 

– 4 Cruise ships at anchorage on the busiest days, 1 M pass./year, 12,5 m (41 

ft.) depth needed 

– Several alternatives for cruise terminal and for a dry bulk terminal to stock 

bulk and avoid loading sugar at anchorage 

– Some studies for extension already done 

n 

Port of Big Creek: 

– Dredging project ready (estimated at $US 12 million), expected to finish in 

2018 

n 

Inland waterways transport (IWT) 

– Existing budget for IWT maintenance in MoW insignificant 

– Lack of IWT network, depth and sedimentation data 

Given these baseline challenges, the following short, medium and long-term recommendations 

for ports and maritime transport are proposed: 

8.2 Short-term Actions (2-3 years) 

v Technical Assistance and Capacity-building for Belize Port Authority. 

v Provide support to GOB to shift toward more efficient organization of stevedoring in 

Port of Belize Ltd. 

v Detailed feasibility study for the development of the Port of Belize Ltd. 

v Map and review the possibilities for inland waterway transport. 

v Study of Public Service Obligations (PSO) contracts for rendering commuting ferry 

services for employees of the tourist industry. 


Page xxvi




The medium and long-term actions focus on: 

n 

n 

Solving lack of cruise docking facilities in the central part of the country. 

Solving the port capacity bottlenecks for freight movements in central Belize. 

Solving lack of cruise docking facilities in the central part of the country: 

Action: Construct a cruise docking facility to accommodate four Oasis class cruise vessels, among 

other facilities. Three competing projects (see Figure 3): 

n Port of Belize: 175 M USD including dredging of the access channel to 11 m. 

n State Bank Island (would still require the use of water taxis). 

n Port of Magical Belize: 150 M USD. 

Investors would require exclusivity agreement prior to mobilizing any funds. GOB will only provide 

this after presentation of business plan and investors are fully prepared and ready to start the 

project. 

Figure 3: 

Location of options for cruise terminal proposals 

Solving the port capacity bottlenecks for freight movements in central Belize 

Three main configurations were identified for the future: 

n 

n 

n 

Option 1: Cruise Terminal in Port of Magical Belize and development of a 

multipurpose second berth in Port of Belize City. 

Option 2: Cruise Terminal in Port of Belize City and reclamation of land in Port of 

Belize City to develop a multipurpose second berth. 

Option 3 includes the following projects: Cruise Terminal either in Port of Belize City 

or in Port of Magical Belize and construction of a multipurpose port in Commerce Bight. 


Page xxvii



v Option 1: Cruise Terminal in Port of Magical Belize and development of a 

multipurpose second berth in Port of Belize City. In this option, the Port of 

Magical Belize is the selected option for cruise terminal, while the Port of Belize City 

specializes in freight operations. Figure 4 shows the developer proposed conceptual 

design of Port of Magical Belize. In this case, the Port of Belize City can specialize 

in freight and the use the unfinished cruise terminal area in the Port of Belize City for 

the development of a multipurpose second berth, thus solving the port’s capacity 

problems for the movement of containers and providing for the needed bulk terminal 

(see Figure 5). 

Figure 4: 

Conceptual 

design for Port of 

Magical Belize 

Figure 5: Scheme for the 

multipurpose second berth and 

bulk facility in Port of Belize City 

v Option 2: Cruise Terminal in Port of Belize City and reclaim of land in Port of Belize 

City to develop a multipurpose second berth. This option has the possibility for 

developing both freight and cruise operations in the Port of Belize City, if the Cruise 

Terminal is built in the area of the former unfinished terminal and the multipurpose 

berth would be built in the landside, with potential future King´s Wharf expansion (see 

Figure 6 below). 


Page xxviii



Figure 6: Configuration in Port of Belize City for cruise and freight purposes. Left: 

medium-term. Right: Long-term developments possibilities (beyond 2035) 

v Option 3 includes the following projects: Cruise Terminal either in Port of Belize City 

or in Port of Magical Belize and construction of a multipurpose port in Commerce 

Bight. Under this option, the cruise terminal can be built either in the Port of Belize 

City or in the Port of Magical Belize. However, any freight activities would be 

developed in Commerce Bight Port, located south of Dangriga (see location in Figure 

7). 

Figure 7: Location 

of Commerce Bight 

Port 

Option 1 is the configuration that appears to balance costs more efficiently (and therefore 

readiness for implementation) together with a potential for development. The major risk is the 

capacity of Port of Magical Belize to secure funding in the short-term. If that initiative were not 

possible, Option 2 would be the logical choice, if there were a firm commitment by the owner of 

the Port of Belize to also invest in the freight operations indicated as critical for development. 

Otherwise, only Option 3 would remain, and its implementation would require major efforts and 

public funding, beyond the port development, to make it successful. The following Table 6 Table 

summarizes the pros and cons of each option. 


Page xxix



Table 6: 

Summary of port configurations for freight and cruises 

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 

Projects 

Cost 

Advantages 

Disadvantag 

es 

- Cruise Terminal in Port of 

Magical Belize 

- Development of a 

multipurpose second berth 

and a bulk facility in Port 

of Belize City 

- 150 M USD for the Cruise 

Terminal in Port of Magical 

Belize 

- 30 M USD for the 

development of the 

second berth and the bulk 

facility in Port Belize City 

- Most cost-efficient solution 

- Container and bulk traffic 

bottlenecks solved for a 

long period 

- High potential for 

development of touristic 

activities south of Belize 

City 

- Better first point of landing 

in Belize for cruise tourists 

- Capacity for bigger cruise 

vessels (Oasis class 12 m 

/ 39 ft. draught) compared 

to the project in Port of 

Belize City 

- As bypassing Belize City 

traffic, more time for 

tourists in the rest of the 

country 

- Increased employment on 

the port and on related 

activities 

- Proper separation of 

cruise and freight activities 

- Funding for Port of 

Magical Belize not 

secured 

- Port of Belize has taken 

several steps on project 

preparation for the Cruise 

Terminal, so it might be 

difficult to make them 

change their minds 

- Likely negative impact on 

the economy of Belize City 

depending on the tourism 

sector 


Belize City 

- Reclaim of land in Port of 

Belize City to develop a 


and a bulk facility 


Terminal in Port of Belize 

City (amount to be updated 

after dredging explorations) 

- 60 M USD (optimistic) for 

the alternative option of 


in Port Belize City 

- Relatively high readiness of 

Cruise Terminal project in 

Port of Belize City – some 

infrastructure already 

existing and ongoing 

dredging exploration 

- Second berth with direct 

access to the container 

yard (no trestle) good for 

optimizing operations and 

reducing vulnerability 



activities 

- Likely positive impact on 



sector 

- Risk on the capacity to 

implement both projects on 

the same time for the port 

owner 

- Mixed cruise and freight 

activities in the same 

location 

- Less attractive first point of 

landing for cruise tourists 

- Bigger maintenance costs 

on dredging in the long 

term 

- Potential lack of space for 

manoeuvring in the turning 

basin for big freight vessels 


Belize City 

- Port of Commerce Bight as 

alternative freight solution 

due to lack of 

developments in Port of 

Belize City 


Terminal 

- 133 M USD for Commerce 

Bight Port 

Fully private funding 

- Deep sea water port 

- Additional useful services 

proposed as marine 

salvage 

- Potential to develop 

Dangriga region if 

accompanied with other 

investments and political 

will 

- Increased capacity of GOB 

to influence the ports sector 

by being the owner of the 

port 



Port of Belize City 

- Serious uncertainties on 

the capacity to attract bulk 

and container traffic, and 

hence on the financial 

viability of the port 

- The funding is not certain 

- If implemented without 

other parallel 

developments, risk to 

become a white elephant 


activities in the same 

location 




Page xxx

L A 

L A 



9. LOGISTICS AND TRADE FACILITATION 

9.1 Baseline conditions 

Figure 8 show the current logistic routes of the major export and import products. Based on 

interviews with industry and carriers, no trips longer than 150 km (93 miles) were identified (short 

trips). 

Figure 8: 

Major Export and Import flows 

M E X I C O 

Paraiso 

Xaibe 

San Joaquin Sarteneja 

San Narciso 

Benque Viejo 

San Pablo Little Belize 

San Estevan 

COROZAL 

Yo Creek 

San Lazaro 

Guinea Grass 

Exports 

M E X I C O 

Paraiso 

Xaibe 

San Joaquin Sarteneja 

San Narciso 

Benque Viejo 

San Pablo Little Belize 

San Estevan 

COROZAL 

Yo Creek 

San Lazaro 

Guinea Grass 

Imports 

Shipyard 

San Felipe 

San Pedro 

Shipyard 

San Felipe 

San Pedro 

Caye Caulker 

Caye Caulker 

ORANGE WALK 

Sand Hill 

ORANGE WALK 

Sand Hill 

BELIZE 

Ladyville 

Western Paradise 

BELIZE 

Ladyville 

Western Paradise 

Valley of Peace Mahogany Heights 

St. Matthews 

Teakettle 

Santa Familia 

San Ignacio Armenia 

Valley of Peace Mahogany Heights 

St. Matthews 

Teakettle 

Santa Familia 

San Ignacio Armenia 

San Jose Succotz 

St. Margret 

San Jose Succotz 

St. Margret 

G U A T E M A 

Pomona Dangriga 

CAYO 

Silk Grass 

STANN CREEK 

Red Bank 

Cow Pen Seine Bight 

Bella Vista 

TOLEDO 

San Pedro Columbia 

San Antonio 

San Felipe 

Punta Gorda 

LEGEND 

International limits 

District limits 

Roads 

Settlements 

Popul > 1,000 

Flow by barges (Tons) 

200 100 5 

Sugar 

Molasses 

Flow by truck (Tons) 

200 100 5 

Sugar 

Citrus products 

Crude oil 

Corn Meal & Beans 

0 20 40 60 

G U A T E M A 

Pomona Dangriga 

CAYO 

Silk Grass 

STANN CREEK 

Red Bank 

Cow Pen Seine Bight 

Bella Vista 

TOLEDO 

San Pedro Columbia 

San Antonio 

San Felipe 

Punta Gorda 

LEGEND 

International limits 

District limits 

Roads 

Settlements 

Popul > 1,000 

Flow (Tons) 

200 100 5 

Fuels 

CPZ 

Animal Feed 

Constr mats & cement 

Ferti & insect 

0 20 40 60 

Kilometers 

Transconsult S.A. de C.V. 

Kilometers 

Transconsult S.A. de C.V. 

9.2 Short-term Actions (2-3 years) 

For the short term, the reduction or, if possible, removal of the ad valorem tax applied to transshipment 

goods, should be considered in order to increase port and logistics activities. 


v Action 1. Jalacte Border Post. Jalacte Border Post designed following regular 

standards 

v Action 2. Professionalization of road freight transport sector and concentration 

of the sector. Regulation of minimum conditions of operation and maintenance of 

road freight transport vehicles. Tax incentives are proposed for the acquisition of new 

trucks and trailers by transportation companies as long as they fulfill the Ministry of 

Transport’s (MoT´s) requirements. 

v Action 3. Regulating and enforcing weight limits and dimensions of cargo 

vehicles. Development and dissemination of regulatory framework of weight limits 

and dimensions for freight cargo vehicles (The Central American Agreement on Road 

Circulation is recommended as a guideline). 

v Action 4. Revision border crossing infrastructure according to the parameters of 

the regional strategy for Coordinated Border Management (pilot then rolling out to 

other gates), including customs equipment acquisition with Non-Intrusive Inspection 

(NII) systems and/or Radiation Detection Equipment (RDE) capabilities for Santa 

Elena POE; Weighbridge installation for verification of maximum permissible weights 

in freight vehicles; and installation of BAHA laboratory (for plant health, animal health 

and food safety) at cross-border. 


Page xxxi



v Action 5. Implementation of freight transport review centers. Establish freight 

transport review centers for verification of weights and dimensions, vehicle and driver 

status and polluting emissions measurement 

v Action 7. Renewal of truck fleet. Establish minimum acceptable levels of pollutant 

emissions and technical and mechanical inspections, as well as, minimum operating 

conditions for vehicles to promote the gradual renewal of the truck fleet. 

v Action 8. Elimination of cargo change to Belizean trucks at the border with 

Mexico and Guatemala. Negotiation of a Memorandum of Understanding with 

Guatemala and Mexico for International Freight Transport Services. 

v Action 9. Optimization of trade facilitation processes (pilot then rolling out to 

other gates). Strengthen the implementation of best practices in federal agencies that 

improve the efficiency of foreign trade. 

10. ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGY 

The following actions were identified as short, medium and long-term actions regarding 

environmental protection and energy efficiency measures: 

v Implementation of regulation on heavy-duty vehicle emissions. EPA heavy-duty 

regulations for criteria air pollutants and GHG emission are for new vehicles. A more 

proper approach for Belize is to limit the age of the vehicles being imported to the 

country, based on the EPA or EURO standards (technology), age that should 

decrease in a progressive way over time. 

v Energy efficiency in light duty vehicles. Informational (labels) and regulatory 

(standards) measures are for new and newly imported vehicles. Economic 

measures, taxes applied to new and used vehicles based on their emissions, age or 

fuel consumption, is the recommended option for Belize. Another possibility is to 

implement emission testing (which DOE has laws on) as a requisite for licensing of 

all vehicles. 

v Electric vehicles. By shifting the energy matrix in the transport sector, the GOB has 

an opportunity to develop a policy for the introduction of electric vehicles in the long 

term. It is recommended to start with a pilot project in an urban area or with 

government institutions. San Pedro, being an island with specific problems in urban 

transport is an ideal candidate for a pilot project. The pilot will serve to test the 

attractiveness of electric vehicles in the town. If the results were positive, a roll-out 

to Belize cities could be envisaged, and, finally, rolling out the system to the rest of 

the country. 

v Biofuels. Biofuels are largely compatible with today´s vehicular technology, so they 

can serve as a renewable alternative to fossil fuels, helping to reduce GHG emissions 

of the transport sector. The most common ones are biodiesel and bioethanol 

produced from biomass. However, government support of biofuels must be 

cautiously considered. After accounting land-use change emissions (ILUC), the 

impact of biofuels can in fact negative as the GHG emissions increased when 

compared with the use of fossil fuels. In addition, biofuel development may require 

subsidizing part of the production and Belize could use those funds for more suitable 

activities. 


Page xxxii



11. FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK 

Financial resources that would be available to finance the medium and long-term CNTMP projects 

and programs 1 were estimated under the following hypotheses: 

n 

Internal funding: Two scenarios for the Cap II Exp: 

n 

n 

Scenario 1: 1% of GDP. 

Scenario 2: 1.5% of GDP. 

n 

n 

n 

Currently in Belize the expenditure is between 1% and 2% but that includes both local 

resources (Cap II Expenditure) and external funding (Cap III Expenditure). According 

to the Ministry of Finance, Cap II Exp. should be around 1% of GDP on average, with 

some margin to increase this percentage. In OECD countries, the average expenditure 

in transport infrastructure investment has been about 1% of GDP for the last 10 years. 

However, in developing countries and emerging economies, this ratio is between 3% 

and 6%. Therefore, both scenarios are on the conservative side for an emerging 

economy that is developing its infrastructure. 

IFI funding: 0.5% of GDP. 

Currently IFI funding is between 0.5% and 1.0% of GDP. Therefore, considering a 

value of 0.5% assumes that the IFI’s would continue to (conservatively) assist Belize. 

Based on these hypotheses, Table 6 shows the estimated available resources to finance the 

medium and long-term projects of the CNTMP. These would be between USD 253.8 million if 

CAP II is 1.0% of GDP and no IFI funding is available, to USD 507.6 million if CAP II is 1.5% of 

GDP and IFI funding is available. 

Table 7: 

Internal funding 

Estimates of Financial Resources Available for the CNTMP 

Cost in M BZD 

at Cap II 1.5% 

of GDP 

Cost in M USD 

at Cap II 1.5% 

of GDP 

Cost in M BZD 

at Cap II 1% of 

GDP 

Cost in M USD 

at Cap II 1% of 

GDP 

Medium Term (2020-25) 244.9 122.5 163.3 81.6 

Long Term (2026-35) 516.5 258.2 344.3 172.1 

Total both periods 761.5 380.7 507.6 253.8 

IFI funding (0.5% of GDP) 126.9 126.9 

Total with IFI funding 507.6 380.7 

Table 8 shows a rough estimation of the public investment needed to carry out the medium and 

long-term projects of the CNTMP, including road maintenance and the GOB contribution to the 

ports, airports, public transport and logistics developments. Excluding maintenance of roads, the 

total amounts to USD 408.7, which is reachable a CAP II of 1.5% of GDP and IFI funding of less 

than 0.15% of GDP, or a combination thereof. 

Road maintenance funding would require other sources of additional GOB budget line and other 

sources of funding, such as toll road collection. Initial estimates indicate that seven toll locations 

1 

On-going short-term projects are considered to already have identified funding and, thus, there is no need to include 

them in the financing envelop. 


Page xxxiii



along the main highways could generate revenues (excluding collection expenses) of USD 140 

million between 2020 and 2035, enough to cover for the maintenance of these main highways. 

Table 8: 

Sector 

Rough Estimate of Public Investment Needed to Finance CNTMP 

Public sector 

Investment 

(M USD) 

Private sector 

Investment 

(M USD) 

Road investments 316.7 0.0 

Costs for adapting upgraded rural 

roads to road safety standards 21.4 

Comments 

Potentially funded by IFI 


roads to climate change 21.6 

Improvements in road design 

Roads maintenance 180.0 Full network considered 

Sub-total 539.8 0.0 

Ports investments 0.0 180.0 

Public transport 

9.0 Water taxi piers 

Airport projects 38.0 84.0 

Logistics 10.9 0.0 Potentially funded by IFI 

Total 588.5 273.0 

12. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS 

The successful implementation of the CNTMP requires a corresponding legal and institutional 

framework to: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Have the adequate legal and policy tools. 

Assure sufficiency of funds for the required investment and maintenance. 

Monitor and enforce regulations. 

Generate integrated national transport information. 

Conduct flexible multimodal transport planning. 

v Regulatory revisions and adjustments. The transport sector regulatory framework 

requires adjustments and new regulations to conform to modern, integrated and 

realistic regulations which can be monitored and enforced and which are applicable 

to Belize’s conditions. 

v Existing regulations requiring adjustments include: Motor Vehicles and Traffic Act, 

Border Management Agency Act, Belize Port Authority related acts, Public Roads 

Act, Land Related Acts, and Aviation related acts. New regulations include a Public 

Transport Regulation and a PPP Policy regulation, which is now under discussion 

and socializing. 

v For that purpose, the CNTMP contemplates a comprehensive regulatory revision and 

adjustment; an extensive study of all the regulations affecting transportation and a 

Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) for each of the instruments. 

v Assurance of funds for the required investment and maintenance. The Ministry 

of Works is responsible for planning, constructing and maintaining the country’s 

roads and bridges, as well as, drains and waterways. New road infrastructure is 

currently financed by the national government through grants and loans provided by 


Page xxxiv



bilateral and multilateral sources and implemented by the Ministry of Works (CAP II 

and CAP III budget items). Nevertheless, there are not enough resources to meet 

the necessary maintenance repairs to highways, and for the development of new 

infrastructure. 

v For that purpose, the CNTMP contemplates the creation of a National Roads Fund 

under the Ministry of Works, with oversight by the Ministry of Finance, to guarantee 

the necessary resources for the development of infrastructure or, at least, for the 

provision of maintenance for the existing and future network. To ensure its security, 

this fund can be partially fed by the regular GOB budget items, by road toll collections, 

and other income generating sources. 

v Monitoring and enforcement. Baseline: deficient capacity for the enforcement of 

regulations, and for the generation of information. Weak or no control mechanisms 

for the implementation of the existing regulations, which has a negative impact on 

the quality of infrastructure and the safety of the transport subsystems. 

v The CNTMP considers the creation of a Monitoring and Control Unit under the 

Department of Transport that will be in charge of the enforcement of transport 

regulations; concession conditions and public transport routes and operator 

contracts, as well as freight regulations; concession conditions, public transport 

routes and operator contracts. 

v Integrated national transport information system. There is not a system for the 

generation of information with clearly defined responsibilities among the ministries in 

Belize; therefore, there is a deficiency of available data to do adequate transport 

planning, monitoring and enforcement. For example, there is a lack of proper 

mapping of transport networks and a systematic collection of traffic numbers to make 

judgments on strategy and investment; no passenger data from the private bus 

operators or water taxis are available. 

v For that purpose, the CNTMP contemplates the creation of an Integrated National 

Transportation Information System (ITIS) managed by the Department of Transport 

and hosted in CITO. The different agencies must determine a liaison person for 

communication with the ITIS. 

v Flexible multimodal transport planning. Responsibilities for transport planning are 

currently dispersed across several ministries and departments, coordination low or 

non-existent. There are also significant limitations in resources, staff, equipment, 

training and investment for strategic planning, particularly in the Department of 

Transport. 

v For that purpose, the CNTMP considers the creation of a Transport Planning Unit 

(TPU) under the Ministry of Transport, specifically in the Department of Transport, to 

strengthen the capability of Government to better allocate resources and monitor 

policy and development, to ensure collaborative participation of relevant 

transportation related agencies, and to encourage open, timely and meaningful 

public involvement. 

Figure 9 shows the schematic structure of the Department of Transport with its three proposed 

new units, the Transport Planning Unit, the Monitoring and Control Unit, and the Integrated 

Transport Information System Unit. To facilitate its implementation, these three units can start as 

a single, multifunctional unit covering all three aspects. 

Given the existing capacity limitations of the MoT to carry out these above-listed new tasks 

specifically related to transport planning, it is proposed that in the immediate future, for the 

implementation of the CNTMP, the TPU in DoT be assisted by the Department of Public-Private 

Sector Dialogue (DPPD), while the TPU and MoT develop internal capabilities. The DPPD has 

played a crucial role in preparing the CNTMP and is well-positioned to continue to be involved in 

the future in the sector planning as an advisory entity for the DoT’s Transport Planning Unit, 


Page xxxv



working on the identification of possible project funding opportunities and financing mechanisms 

for leveraging private-sector investment, as well as, for facilitating project implementation. 

Figure 9: 

The Proposed New Units in the Department of Transport 


Page xxxvi



INTRODUCTION 

1.1 BACKGROUND 

1. Belize, located adjacent to the Yucatan peninsula and bordered by the Caribbean Sea on 

the east, Mexico on the north and Guatemala on the west and south, has a land area of 

approximately 8,867 sq. ml (23,000 sq. km) and a population of less than 378,000 (2016). 

In 2016, the country’s GDP was estimated at about, 2.83 billion BZD. During the period 

2005-2015, real GDP increased on the average by about 3.5% per year, with some 

variations. 

2. Belize has been identified as a country with high development potential. This identification 

is based on the country's wealth of natural resources on which its headline industries of 

agriculture and tourism are based. Agriculture is concentrated in a few export commodities 

(sugar, citrus products and bananas) and other high-value exports (marine products and 

crude oil). Largely unspoiled natural and archaeological sites are also on offer throughout 

the country as highly attractive tourist destinations that can be sustainably exploited by 

means of ecologically-friendly and responsible tourism activities. 

3. The agricultural sector remains a significant driver of the Belizean economy. The sector 

generates 16.0% of GDP (2014). Sugar cane, citrus and bananas are the most important 

products in this sector. Agricultural production represents a significant proportion of 

Belize’s total exports. Citrus and sugar crops account for most of the country’s agricultural 

activity, and along with corn and bean plantations, occupy more than 75% of the total 

cultivated area (2009). Sugar cane is cultivated in the Orange Walk and Corozal Districts 

roughly equally and, increasingly, in the Cayo District. Orange and banana production is 

concentrated in the Stann Creek District. In terms of volume, the largest agriculture 

product is sugar cane accounting for 73% of total output, followed by orange (10%), 

banana (6%), and yellow corn (4%). 

4. In 2014 the exports of major agricultural products accounted for more than half (52.1%) of 

all export values. The main items are sugar and molasses (18.9%), orange and grapefruit 

concentrate (14.4%), and bananas (16.3%). Crude oil, which in 2014 accounted for 16.7% 

of total export value, is rapidly declining in importance. 

5. Given the extent to which agricultural exports feature, efficient road connectivity between 

the agricultural hinterland and the eastern coast seaports, and efficient port operations 

and shipment logistics are essential to the Belizean economy. 

6. The service sector, most noticeably tourism, accounts for 70% of the GDP. According to 

the "National Sustainable Tourism Masterplan for Belize 2030," tourism itself contributes 

anywhere from 18% to 25% of the total GDP, and accounts for an estimated 28% of total 

employment. It is expected that overnight and cruise tourism will more than double by 

2030 and its total contribution to the country’s economy is estimated to reach about 43.0% 

of GDP in 2030. Tourism development is expected to grow throughout Belize, with major 

emphasis on expanding tourism in the south (which has a lower share at present). 

7. A high quality and safe road infrastructure, with enhanced access to tourism destinations, 

rural areas, and neighbouring countries is an essential support to the tourism industry and 

its expansion. Equally important are safe and attractive international and national airport 

terminal infrastructure, facilities and services offered to cater to increasing numbers of 

tourists. In addition, more efficient and additional supply of water transport to existing and 

future tourist destinations, by boat, ferry or water taxi can be an important complement to 

foster the tourist industry. 

Preparation for a Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan for Belize Page 1-1



8. Realizing Belize’s full potential, however, faces limitations due to the country's weak 

transport infrastructure network (roads, ports and aviation), which inhibits the performance 

of its key sectors. Furthermore, in the case of Belize, the social and cohesion argument 

(providing accessibility to low-income population and to isolated areas in the country) is of 

critical importance. 

9. Whilst Belize has a relatively extensive road system of approximately 13,000 km, its 

quality has been rated as generally poor (World Bank, 2016, World Economic Forum, 

2017), with only 601 km of paved primary roads, with the remaining being gravel and dirt 

roads, hindering the access to tourists, agricultural stakeholders and rural communities. 

In addition, the primary road network requires widening, better signage, bridge 

improvements and bridge replacements, and improved construction methods to increase 

capacity, quality and safety conditions, as well as, to better serve passenger and cargo 

road transportation requirements. 

10. With an extensive coral barrier reef, Belize’s ports system encounters natural physical 

disadvantages, and port infrastructure and facilities therefore manifest serious limitations 

negatively affecting port productivity and competitiveness. Belize has two main sea ports 

of entry, the Port of Belize and the Port of Big Creek. Port of Belize’s configuration with 

limited berth and available space at King’s Wharf and the long and narrow access trestle 

hampers port operations and the capacity to handle an increasing level of freight imports 

and exports. With regular calls of container ships, it has limited berthing availability and 

equipment to handle bulk cargoes. Thus, the main bulk exports of sugar are now done via 

an inefficient and expensive system of barges from the Belize Sugar Industries Ltd. sugar 

refinery at Tower Hill in Orange Walk District to the deep-water anchorage offshore the 

Port of Belize. In addition, there are no berthing facilities for cruise ships near Belize City; 

therefore, tourists wanting to visit inland Belize need to transfer from the cruise ship to 

mainland of Belize City in water taxi-style tenders. At the Port of Big Creek, the access 

channel is currently being dredged to 11 meters; therefore, it is expected to attract bigger 

ships that can dock directly at the port and thus reduce the maritime transport costs for 

exports (banana and sugar among others). Terrestrial ports of entry with Mexico at Santa 

Elena in the north and with Guatemala at Benque Viejo del Carmen in the west need 

border crossing technological upgrades and unifying bilateral agreements with these 

neighbouring countries to facilitate seamless cargo movements. In the south of Belize, the 

Jalacte border continues to be used as an informal border crossing for the illegal transfer 

of cattle, goods and people. To regularize this crossing, the Government of Belize has 

established the authorized agencies involved in port of entry, but with minimal 

infrastructure. On the Guatemalan side, there is not yet any presence of government 

authorities. 

11. The airport system also faces challenges. According to the Belize Department of Civil 

Aviation (BDCA), Belize has one of the busiest air spaces in Central America. There is a 

high number of small aircraft providing services to many domestic airports and, combined 

with a lack of insufficient air traffic controllers, and the fact that, airports operate during 

daylight hours only, airspace congestion can occur, resulting in increased risk of 

accidents. Under these circumstances, the Philip Goldson International Airport will be 

incapable of handling the expected increase in international and domestic passengers 

with its current facilities. Part of the solution to the air traffic congestion is to use larger 

aircraft; however, current domestic aerodromes, particularly in San Pedro and Placencia, 

cannot handle larger aircraft due to space limitations. However, sufficient financial 

resources of domestic carriers for investing in larger aircraft also needs to be a 

consideration. In addition, these aerodromes currently lack basic safety and security 

facilities, such as adequate fencing, scanner controls, and infrastructure and systems for 

the separation of arrival and departure passenger flows. 




12. While the challenges of the transport sector and the corresponding needed improvements 

are numerous, Belize also needs updated, modern and appropriate quality legislation, 

effective institutions and governance mechanisms, to confront the transport sector 

challenges and carry out such improvement. At the same time, the availability of limited 

resources that can be invested in the development of the transport sector requires wellcoordinated 

and holistically-planned actions to ensure their efficient and effective use. 

13. Towards this end, the Government of Belize has received a grant from the Inter-American 

Development Bank (IDB) towards the preparation of this Comprehensive National 

Transportation Master Plan (CNTMP), which has been coordinated by The Department of 

Public/Private-sector Dialogue in the Office of the Prime Minister. The result of extensive 

consultation with key relevant public authorities and a broad cross-section of privatesector 

stakeholders, the CNTMP preparation process has now been successfully 

concluded as at March 2018.The overall objective of the CNTMP is to create a Master 

Plan that facilitates better sector planning and a more efficient and effective transport of 

freight and people within Belize, and between Belize and its main trading partners. 

14. The expected benefits include positive impacts on the development of the country’s 

agriculture and tourism sectors, as well as,sa more socially inclusive, cohesive, and 

climate change adaptable and resilient Belize. 

1.2 THE COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL TRANSPORT MASTER 

PLAN PROCESS 

Project Objectives 

15. The overarching objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive National Transport 

Master Plan that addresses Belize’s transport needs in the short, medium and long terms, 

and that “facilitates a better sector planning and a more efficient and effective transport of 

freight and people within Belize, and between Belize and its main trading partners” 2 . The 

multimodal CNTMP (land, air, sea, river) should be coherent with institutional, 

environmental/climate resilience, human and financial resource capacities of Belize. The 

CNTMP should be developed through a consultative and participatory process. 

16. As stated in the Terms of References, specific objectives include: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Prepare an extensive diagnosis of the Belizean transport system, both for passenger 

(public and private) and freight, including infrastructure, services, regulations and the 

institutional framework. 

Generate a Short-term Action Plan (1-2 years) that shall contain the immediate actions 

necessary to mitigate high-priority problems within passenger and freight transport 

systems. 

Assess future needs of inter-city passenger transport system (domestic and tourists) 

in the medium and long term, based on the development of a transport model, and 

evaluate projections and future scenarios. 

Analyze future needs of freight transport system in the medium and long term. 

Generate a Medium and Long-term Action Plan (3 – 20 years) that identify and 

prioritize required actions to generate a more efficient transport system. 

Ensure that the CNTMP is developed through a consultative and participatory process. 

2 

IDB Terms of Reference, SELECTION OF CONSULTANTS FOR: Preparation of a Comprehensive National 

Transportation Master Plan for Belize, JULY 2016 




Scope of the Work 

17. The preparation of the CNTMP entailed the tasks and deliverables summarized in the 

following Figure 1-1. As noted, the scope of work preparation of the CNTMP included 

three phases, starting with the diagnostic of the current situation and proposed short-term 

actions, followed by a phase of modeling and analyses, and culminating with proposals 

and recommendations. 

Figure 1-1: 

Task and Deliverables 

Phase 1 

Diagnosis of the 

Current Situation 

? Baseline analysis 

? Short-term Action Plan 

P1 - Baseline analysis 

P2 - Short-term Action Plan 

Phase 2 

Forecast Analysis – 

Transport Demand 

Model 

? Demand model preparation 

? Medium (2025) term modelling 

? Long (2035) term modelling 

P3 - Assessment and 

Modelling Results 

Phase 3 

Proposals and 

Recommendations 

? Medium and Long-term Action Plan 

? The Comprehensive National 

Transport Master Plan (CNTMP) 

P4 - Proposals for Medium 

and Long Term 

P5 - Draft Final Report 

P6 - Final Report 

18. The right hand of the figure lists the reports that document the process. Those include: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Baseline conditions, containing detailed description of the existing conditions of the 

transport sector in Belize (05 April 2017). 

Passenger and Freight Demand Forecast and Transport Supply Scenario 

Modeling and Assessment, that contains the modeling methodology, results and 

assessment of the passenger (domestic and international tourists) and freight demand 

forecasts and transport supply scenarios (07 December 2019). 

Short-Term Action Plan, containing detailed description and evaluation of proposed 

programs and projects for the short-term (24 August 2017). 

Medium and Long-Term Action Plans, containing detailed description and 

evaluation of proposed programs and projects for the medium and long-term and 

containing the overall transport sector and modal investments and fund requirements 

(02 February 2018). 

Comprehensive National Transport Master Plan. This report is report P5 - Draft 

Final Report and constitutes the draft culmination of the CNTMP, for the final review 

by its stakeholders in all its components. 

Structure of the CNTMP 

19. The structure of the CNTMP (this document), summarized in Figure 1-2 below, closely 

follows the scope of the works. 

20. Chapter 2 – Baseline Conditions, contains a synopsis of the current situation, including 

a description of the demographic and socio-economic realities of Belize; a description of 

the legal and institutional framework of the transport system; descriptions of the transport 

sector and sub-sectors, summarizing their main characteristics and identified problems 

and issues; and a description of the environmental conditions, including potential climate 

change mitigation and adaptation challenges in the transport sector. 

21. Chapter 3 - Current and Future Transport Demand, describes the current transport and 

future passenger transport conditions and freight logistics demand forecast. Also 




contained are a description of the demand forecast methodology, demographics and 

socio-economics forecasts, demand forecast for each sub-sector (roads, public transport, 

water taxi, tourists, ports, and airports), and consolidated forecasts for Belize. 

22. Chapter 4 - Vision, Objectives, Scenario and Policies for the Transport System, 

interprets the national development objectives and policies set up in the Horizon 2030, the 

Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy (GSDS), 2016-2019, and the National 

Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030 (NDF); derives the vision, goals and 

objectives for the transport sector; identifies alternative transport supply scenarios to attain 

the stated goals and objectives and selects the favoured transport development scenario 

for the CNTMP; and details policy guidelines for the transport sector and its sub-sectors. 

23. Chapter 5 - Assessment and Ranking of Projects and Actions, documents the 

economic, social and environmental assessment done of projects and actions included in 

the CNTMP; prioritizes projects and actions, and rationalizes the overall value of the 

CNTMP’s estimated investment based on possible sources of funding. Only road projects 

were prioritized using a multi-criteria ranking; the time horizons for other projects were 

determined based on their capacity constraints (mainly for port projects and actions), 

security and safety requirements (mainly airports and border crossings projects and 

actions), social requirements (mainly public transport and environmental projects and 

actions); or because the actions are a requirement to advance other projects and actions 

(mainly governance enhancement and capacity building actions). 

24. Chapter 6 - Short, Medium and Long-Term Action Plans, provides a detailed 

description of all projects and plans that are included in the CNTMP: road projects and 

measures, public transport projects and measures, ports and maritime projects and 

measures, airport and aviation projects and measures, logistics and trade facilitation 

projects and measures, environmental and energy measures. 

25. Chapter 7 – Implementation Arrangements, contains details on the legal and regulatory 

instruments and institutional framework required to facilitate their implementation, and 

recommended monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. 

Figure 1-2: 

Structure of the CNTMP 

2 3 

Baseline 

Conditions 

Current and 

Future Demand 

4 

Vision, Objectives, 

Scenario and Policies 

5 

Assessment of Projects 

and Actions 

6 7 

Action Plans 

Implementation 

Arrangements 




BASELINE CONDITION 

2.1 INTRODUCTION 

26. This Chapter provides a summary description of the country’s context in 2017 including 

its geographical and socio-economic realities, the institutional and legal framework of the 

transport sector, and the current condition of the transport sector and sub-sectors, 

highlighting key driving forces and challenges 3 . 

2.2 GEOGRAPHY AND SOCIO-ECONOMICS 

27. The main socio-economic realities of Belize are summarized below: 

n 

Geography – Belize has a land area of approximately 8,867 sq. miles (23,000 sq. km) 

and population of less than 400,000. It is located in the region adjacent to the Yucatan 

peninsula, bordered by the Caribbean Sea on the east, Mexico on the north and 

Guatemala on the west 

and the south. 

Administratively, the 

country consists of six 

districts – Corozal, 

Orange Walk, Belize, 

Cayo, Stann Creek, and 

Toledo (see Figure 2-1). 

Figure 2-1: Belize 

Districts' Borders 

3 

This Base-Line Analysis Report, 05 April 2017, provides the reader with a detailed description of the baseline realities. 

Additional baseline condition assessments were conducted throughout the study, particularly concerning the legal and 

institutional situations; the environmental conditions pertaining to Belize’s resilience and adaptation capabilities to 

climate change; assessment of modal choice; and specific logistics analyses concerning logistics alternatives for the 

transport of bulk sugar for exportation and concerning the possibility of an expanded regional hinterland of Belize ports. 

These additional baseline condition assessments are included in this chapter of the CNTMP (Final Report). 




n Population – The estimated national population in 2016 was approximately 378,000. 

Over half of the population resides in the Belize and the Cayo Districts which are also 

the most urbanized (73% and 50% urbanized, respectively). The least populated and 

least urbanized district is Toledo (in south Belize). 

n Population Concentration - Forty four percent (44%) of the population is 

concentrated in urban centers (2015 World Bank estimates) which are major transport 

production and attraction centers from a transportation/logistics view point. 

n Demographic Structure - In 2015 most of the population was between 10 and 14 

years old. The country currently has a fertility rate of 22.2% and a mortality rate of 

3.6%. Life expectancy is, on average, 70 years: 68 years for males and 73 for females 

(SIB). 

n Population Growth rate – This growth rate has been approximately 2.5% in recent 

years and is expected to remain at that level into the near future. It is assumed that 

the current growth rate will continue, and the population will exceed 400,000 by the 

year 2020. 

n Ethnic Composition – Belize’s population in 2010 was composed of: Mestizo 

(49.74%), Creole (20.78%), Maya (9.92%), Garifuna (4.61%), Mennonite (3.58%), 

East Indian (2.14%), Caucasian/White (1.02%), Asian (0.93%), Black/African (0.38%), 

Hindu (0.19%), Lebanese (0.08%), mixed (6.24%), other (0.25%), and unknown 

(0.13%) (Central Intelligence Agency). 

n Mayan population – Belize’s indigenous population has been preserved mostly in the 

south, close to the Maya MoUntains in the Toledo and Stann Creek Districts, and west 

of the Southern Highway. There are also northern Mayan settlements in Orange Walk 

and Corozal Districts, mostly composed of Yucatec Mayans of Mexican ancestry. In 

April 2015, Mayan people won communal land rights through international courts. 

Thus, this area is protected against oil extraction. 

n Migration - Roughly 16% of Belizeans live abroad, while immigrants into Belize 

constitute approximately 15% of the total population. Belizeans seeking job and 

educational opportunities have preferred to emigrate to the United States (80% of 

Belizean immigrants) rather than former colonizer, Great Britain, primarily because of 

the United States' closer proximity and stronger trade and cultural ties with Belize. To 

a lesser extent, Belizeans also migrate to Canada, English-speaking Caribbean 

countries and Mexico. Immigration into Belize accounts for an increasing share of 

Belize's population growth rate, which is steadily falling due to fertility decline. The 

emigration of a large share of Creoles (Afro-Belizeans) and the influx of Central 

American immigrants, mainly Guatemalans (42% of total immigrants), Salvadorans 

(22%), Mexicans (10%) and Hondurans (9%), has rapidly changed Belize's ethnic 

composition since the 1990’s. Mestizos have become the largest ethnic group, and 

Belize now has more native Spanish speakers than English or Creole speakers, 

despite English still being the only official language. 

n Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The SIB reports, in 2016, that the country’s GDP 

was estimated at about, 2.83 billion BZD. During the period 2005-2015, real GDP 

increased on average by about 3.5% per year, with some variations. 

n GDP Growth Forecast - The SIB estimates an average annual growth rate of about 

2.3% per annum up to the year 2020. 

n Per Capita GDP - Belize GDP per capita is 7,511 BZD (current), higher than that of 

other countries in the region. It is expected to grow at an average rate of about 2.3% 

to the year 2020. Given the forecasted population and GGP growth rates up to 2020, 

this per capita GDP growth rate is possible only if the growth in GDP is double the SIB 

estimates. The CNTMP has conservatively used the GDP growth rates estimated by 

SIB up to 2020 and per capita GDP increases afterwards. 

n Economic Base - The services sector, most noticeably tourism, accounts for 70% of 

the GDP, while the primary sector, most noticeably agriculture products for export -- 

sugar, citrus and banana), and the secondary sector (manufacturing, electricity, water 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

supply and construction) account for only 14% and 16%, respectively. A significant 

share of the manufacturing is of sugar and molasses, and of citrus fruit concentrate 

for export. 

Production Areas - Most manufacturing (other than sugar and citrus processing) is 

located in and around Belize City; while agriculture is located in the western and the 

southern areas of the country. Sugar cane production is mostly concentrated in the 

north-west part in Orange Walk District followed by the Corozal District. Production of 

citrus and its derivative products -- oranges, orange concentrate, oil, and squash 

grapefruit concentrate and squash -- occurs in the Stann Creek, Toledo and Cayo 

Districts at the western and southern part of the country. Manufacturing and 

processing of sugar and citrus products are located in these areas, respectively. 

Consumption Centers - Belize City, Belmopan, San Ignacio, Benque Viejo are the 

country’s main urban and consumption centers. 

Exports - In 2010, 89% of the total volume of traditional products was destined to 

foreign markets. Agricultural products are shipped to the Caribbean region, the United 

States, Asia, and Europe, through Big Creek Port (citrus), and Port of Belize (sugar), 

and occasionally via Puerto Quetzal (Guatemala). In 2014 total export accounted to 

BZ$ 614.4 million. The top export destinations of Belize are the United States (26%), 

the United Kingdom (19%), Mexico (7%), and the Netherlands (5%). 

Imports - In 2014, Belize imported US$1.25 billion (171st worldwide importer). 

Refined petroleum imports represent 12% of the total imports of Belize, followed by 

rolled tobacco (5%). The top import origins of Belize are the United States (25%), 

China (11%), Curaçao (9.5%), Mexico (9 %) and Guatemala (8%). 

Trade Balance - Since 2010, Belize has had a trade balance deficit. Imports 

significantly exceed exports. The current account balance stood at about -10% in 2015 

(about US$ 1,175 million) and the government’s public debt stood at approximately 

80% of the GDP in 2015. 

Foreign Direct Investments - During 2012 a strong economic incentive was 

promoted to attract investments in Belize’s tourism zones, mainly in the Cayes, 

reaching a peak of nearly US$ 180 million in that year. After this peak, foreign 

investment has decreased and reached the lowest level in the last 10 years (US$ 60 

million in 2015). 

Employment - Total employed population was about 147,000 in 2016. Labour force 

participation rate stands at 63.7%, unemployment rate is 8.0%, and underemployment 

rate 12.1%. Although the enrolment ratio in secondary school is higher for women, the 

labour force is mainly constituted by men (41% vs. 74%). It can be deduced that most 

women are either unemployed, dedicated to housework, or are informally employed 

(SIB). 

Unemployment - Unemployment rate has fluctuated over time, but decreased during 

the last 5 years (2012 to 2016). Moreover, unemployment among women has been 

significantly reduced by about 7 percentage points. 

Underemployment – Underemployment has also shown a downward trend since 

2012. The average underemployment rate, for both genders, has constantly declined, 

from about 18% in 2012 to about 15% in 2016. 

Education - Public expenditure on education totals approximately 6.2% of GDP. 

Overall literacy rate in Belize is 88.6%: 89.9% for women and 87.3% for men 

(UNESCO, 2015). 96.3% of children within the official age group for primary education 

are enrolled in primary school. About two thirds of children, 69.3% are enrolled in 

secondary school. There is a wide geographical coverage of primary schools (286 

schools) throughout the country. In contrast, secondary schools (53 schools) are 

mostly located in urban areas. Junior colleges (11), vocational institutions (6), 

universities (8), and adult and continuing education institutions (10), are found only in 

the main cities (Ministry of Education, 2015). 




n 

n 

n 

Water, Sanitation & Health Care - The proportion of population in Belize using 

improved drinking water source was 99.5% and improved sanitation facilities, to 

hygienically separate human excreta from human contact, applies to 90.5% of the 

population (World Health Organization, 2016). 

Health Care - The budget allocated by Ministry of Health (MOH) for the treatment of 

diseases and emergencies, equals 5.8% of the GDP. The country is divided into four 

health regions, which include regional public hospitals, healthcare centers and health 

posts (administrated by MOH), and two private hospitals. 

Mortality – The main cause of death in Belize is diabetes (9.5% of total). It is followed 

by murders and intentional harms (7.7%), HIV/ AIDS (6.7%), cardiovascular disease 

(5.3%), and pulmonary and heart disease (4.0%). Traffic accidents account for 3.1% 

of total deaths (World Health Organization, 2016). 

2.3 AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION AND MANUFACTURING 

Agriculture Sector 

28. The agricultural sector remains a significant driver of the Belizean economy. According to 

World Bank, this sector occupies 10.0% of the labour force and generates 16.0% of GDP 

(2014). Bananas, citrus and sugar cane are the most important products in this sector. 

Citrus and sugar crops account for most of the agricultural activity, and along with corn 

and bean plantations occupy more than 75% of the total cultivated area (2009). 

29. In terms of weight, the largest agriculture product is sugar cane accounting for 73% of 

total output, followed by orange (10%), banana (6%), and yellow corn (4%). Main 

production areas are as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

Sugar cane is cultivated in the Orange Walk and Corozal Districts about equally. 

Orange production is concentrated in the Stann Creek District 

Banana production is concentrated in the Stann Creek District. 

30. Agricultural production represents a significant proportion of Belize’s total exports. In 2014 

the exports of major agricultural products accounted for more than half (52.1%) of all 

export value. It consisted of sugar and molasses (18.9%), orange and grapefruit 

concentrate (14.4%), bananas (16.3%), and papayas (2.2%). 

31. In comparison, crude oil accounted for only 16.7% of total export value; and sawed wood 

(a traditional export in the past) was less than 1.0%. 

32. Marine products, including fisheries and aquaculture, represents 1.2% of total export 

value. Main products are shrimp (white farmed), whole fish and conch. 

Secondary Sector - Manufacturing 

33. The secondary sector contributes 16% to the country’s GDP (2015) and is focused largely 

on processing agricultural products – mainly sugar cane and citrus, for exports. The 

processing of agricultural products for export is also concentrated in the west and south 

of the country, close to the relevant production areas: sugar in the north-west and citrus 

concentrates in the south 4 . 

4 

Non-agriculture oriented manufacturing is concentrated in the Belize City area. 




34. In 2010, 89% of the total volume of agricultural products was shipped to foreign markets: 

the Caribbean region, the United States, Asia, and Europe, through Port of Big Creek 

(citrus), and Port of Belize (sugar), and occasionally via Puerto Quetzal (Guatemala). 

35. Thus, efficient road connectivity between the agriculture hinterland and the eastern coast 

seaports, and efficient trans-shipment and port operation are essential to the Belize 

economy. 

2.4 TOURISM 

General 

36. Since the late 1990s, the tourist industry has become a major contributor to the Belizean 

economy. Since the year 2000, the number of overnight visitations has almost doubled, 

from about 195,000 in 2000 to about 385,000 in 2016 (+97%). During the same period, 

cruise ship visitation grew exponentially: from less than 60,000 in 2000 to over 1.0 million 

in 2016. Moreover, both sub-sectors continue to grow. 

37. The "National Sustainable Tourism Masterplan for Belize 2030" (2012) is the major source 

for assessing current tourism performance and outlining future plans to the year 2030. 

Among others, this report states that: "Few reliable estimates exist and they vary 

according to the source; however, most converge in that tourism contributes anywhere 

from 18% to 25% of the total GDP, and accounts for about 28% of total employment." 

Visitor Market 

38. Overnight Visitors - In 2015, 78% of overnight visitors were recreational tourists, 17% 

visiting friends and relatives, and 4% of overnight visitors, travelling for business. 

39. Visitor Origin - In 2015, the USA generated 63% of total overnight visitors travelling to 

Belize, Europe 12%, Latin America 9% and Canada 7%. The USA and Canada combined, 

account for 70% of total overnight tourists. The dependency on the USA, UK and 

Canadian markets is even more apparent in the cruise industry. During the 2014-2015 

high season, 93% of cruise visitors originated from these three countries. 

Future Tourism Growth 

40. Based on the National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP), 2012: 

41. Overnight tourist arrival is expected to more than double by 2030 (from 245,000 in 2008 

to 556,000 in 2030); and a 5.1 fold increase is expected in tourist expenditure, from US$ 

248 million in 2008 to US$ 1,255 million in 2030. 

42. Cruise tourism is expected to increase by a factor of 2.1, from 597,000 in 2008 to 1.5 

million in 2030; and it is expected to generate US$ 134 million by 2030 vs. US$ 34 million 

in 2008. 

43. An IDB Logistics Study, 2016, indicates that by 2025 the total contribution of tourism to 

the country’s economy is estimated to reach about 43.0% of GDP. 

Destinations & Development Areas 

44. The NSTMP divides the country into seven destination areas each with its own unique 

characteristics and features: (1) Western Belize; (2) South Eastern Coast Belize; (3) 

Northern Islands; (4) Central Coast Belize; (5) Northern Belize: Corozal; (6) Southern 




Belize; and (7) Belize Reef. (For more details, see Figure 3-70 in Section 3.4 of this report 

and the Baseline Analysis Report, 05 April 2017). 

45. Tourism development is expected to grow everywhere with some major emphasis on 

expanding tourism in the south (which has a lower share at present). 

n 

n 

n 

Major Problems & Issues 

Improving road infrastructure, in terms of quality and safety required by international 

tourism; hence, improving road transport standards throughout the country. In 

addition, enhancing access to tourism destinations, rural areas, and neighboring 

countries. 

Improving the international airport terminals, in terms of infrastructure and facilities, 

and enhancing services offered, in order to cater to the increasing number of tourists. 

Fostering additional water transport to tourism destinations to provide more efficient 

and additional supply of water transport to existing and future tourist destinations, by 

boat, ferry or water taxi. 

2.5 INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK 

Institutional Set-up 

2.5.1.1. Overall Government Structure 

46. Belize is a parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy, which, as a member of 

the Commonwealth, recognizes Queen Elizabeth II as head of state who is represented 

by a Governor-General. The Governor-General, appointed on the advice of the Prime 

Minister, must be of Belizean nationality. Belize has a bi-cameral National Assembly, 

which is in charge of the legislature, composed of the Senate and House of 

Representatives. 

47. Government Ministries ensure that the development of the sector is in accordance with 

national policy and national strategic development plans. All Government Ministries have 

one or more departments in their institutional structure, and most also have Statutory 

Bodies. The two lower level arms of the Ministries perform complementary roles, but both 

are responsible for broader national policy as defined by the host Ministry. Besides the 

Office of the Prime Minister who is also head of the Ministry of Finance and Natural 

Resources, there are currently nine Ministries. After a careful revision of the institutional 

portfolios, it was identified that they are all somehow impacted by transport, and that at 

least 20 units of government have functions directly related with transportation. As a result, 

functions are currently fragmented throughout the institutional structure of the Belizean 

Government. 

48. Figure 2-2 shows the overall organizational chart for the transport sector as relates to the 

Government of Belize. To adequately understand the functions of the different Ministries 

in the governance of the transport sector, a list of the relevant portfolios is enlisted below. 

Over 20 Ministries and statutory bodies were identified to be related to the transport sector 

in Belize. 




Figure 2-2: 

Belize Government Organizational Chart 

1. Office of the Prime Minister, Ministry of Finance and Natural Resources 

a. Office of the Prime Minister: 

i. Cabinet 

ii. Economic Development Council 

iii. Inter- Ministerial Coordination 

iv. RESTORE Belize 

v. Special Projects 

b. Ministry of Finance: 

i. Budget Preparation and Management 

ii. Customs and Excise 

iii. Asset & Utility Care Unit, 

iv. Treasury 

v. Loans 

vi. Money Lenders 

vii. Taxation 

viii. Tenders 

ix. Financial Intelligence Unit, 

1. International Business Company Registry, 

2. International Financial Services Commission (Offshore Industry) 

3. International Merchant Marine Registry of Belize 

c. Natural Resources: 

i. Lands and Land Management 

ii. Lands Survey 

iii. Physical Planning (new subdivision) 

2. Ministry of Economic Development, Petroleum, Investment, Trade and Commerce, 

Energy and Public Service 

a. Economic Development 

i. Capital Budget Preparation and Management, 

ii. Corozal Free Zone, 




iii. Development Financial Corporation 

iv. Development Financial Institutions and Multilateral Financing Agencies 

v. Economic Development Planning 

vi. Public Sector Investment Program Planning 

vii. Social Investment Fund 

viii. Statistical Institute of Belize 

b. Investment, Trade and Commerce 

i. Foreign Trade – 

1. BELTRAIDE 

2. Enterprise Development 

3. Foreign Trade 

4. Foreign Direct Investment 

5. Industrial and Commercial Development 

6. International Trade Negotiations 

ii. Other Matters 

1. Commercial Free Zones 

2. Export Processing Zones 

c. Energy and Public Utilities 

i. Electricity 

ii. Energy 

iii. Public Utilities 

iv. Public Utilities Commission 

v. Renewable Energy 

3. Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, the Environment, Sustainable 

Development and Immigration. 

a. Agriculture 

i. Belize Marketing and Development Corporation 

b. Fisheries, Forestry, the Environment, Sustainable Development 

i. Climate Change 

ii. Coastal Zone Management Authority 

iii. Environment and Sustainable Development 

iv. Protected Areas and Reserves 

4. Ministry of Works 

a. Road/Bridge Construction & Maintenance 

b. Public Works 

5. Ministry of Tourism & Civil Aviation 

a. Ministry of Tourism 

i. Belize Tourism Board 

ii. Border Management Agency 

b. Civil Aviation 

i. Belize Airports Authority 

ii. Aerodromes 

iii. Department of Civil Aviation 

6. Ministry of Labour, Local Government, Rural Development, Public Service, 

Energy, and Public Utilities 

a. Local Government 

i. Alcaldes 

ii. Municipalities 

iii. Reconstruction and Development Corporation (RECONDEV) 

iv. Village Councils 

b. Rural Development 

i. Rural development 




7. Ministry of Transport & NEMO 

a. Transport 

i. Belize Port Authority 

ii. Traffic 

iii. Transport 

iv. Licensing of vehicles 

v. Ports and harbours 

vi. Salvaging of wrecks 

b. National Emergency Management 

i. National Emergency Management Organization 

8. Minister of Foreign & Home Affairs 

i. Bilateral and Multilateral Programs 

ii. International Cooperation 

iii. Regional and International Agencies 

iv. Treaties 

9. Minister of Housing & Urban Development 

a. Town Planning 

b. Urban Development 

c. Zoning 

10. Attorney General 

a. Law Revision and Reform 

b. Legal Drafting 

2.5.1.2. Ministries and Departments Governing the Transport Sector 

49. The roles of Ministries and Departments in the governance of the Transport Sector are 

defined below. 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Ministry of Works (MOW): This Ministry controls, uses, manages, surveys, constructs 

and repairs all public roads, bridges and ferries; and prevents obstruction thereof, in 

addition to other responsibilities under the Public Roads Act (CAP 232). 

Ministry of Transport (MOT): The main objective of the MOT is to manage and 

establish policies and guidelines for road users. This is in contrast with MOW which is 

responsible for the physical provision and maintenance of roads, highways, and 

waterways. 

Within the MOT, the DOT is responsible for vehicle registration and licensing (in nonurban 

areas), directing the flow of traffic; enforcing the parking regulations and the 

traffic violation ticket system; and investigating and prosecuting traffic accidents, 

including provisions relating to driving under the influence of drinks or drugs. Among 

others, the DOT manages and regulates inter-city public bus transport. 

National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) - NEMO is responsible for 

national emergency management. This organization operates in close coordination 

with the Cabinet which is the highest level in the overall national institutional structure, 

and is chaired by the Prime Minister. 

NEMO was created to preserve life and property throughout the country in the event 

of an emergency, threatened or real, and to mitigate the impact on the country and its 

people. NEMO executes its duties and functions with the assistance of geographically 

distributed Emergency Management Committees and thirteen (13) Operational 

Committees. Two Operational Committees are directly relevant for the Transport 

sector: Transport & Evacuation, and Mitigation, Access & Infrastructure. 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

National Transport Board (NTB) - The NTB operates within the MOT. In accordance 

with the Motor Vehicles and Road Traffic Act (CAP 230), the National Transport Board 

(NTB) advises the Ministry on all policy matters pertaining to road transport; traffic; 

transport rates, fares, tolls, dues or other charges. It advises on registration duties and 

fees for motor and other vehicles; traffic regulations and traffic lights; cross walks; road 

closures and redirection of traffic; parking regulations, including parking places, 

parking meters, duration of parking and parking offences. It also advises on driving 

tests; restrictions on driving licenses and omnibus licenses. 

The National Transport Board is also responsible for licensing public passenger 

transport services; organizing public transport routes; and ensuring that public 

transport providers comply with the necessary conditions set forth by the MOT. 

This Board has seven (7) members, including the Chief Executive Officer of the 

Ministry (MOT) responsible for transport and the Commissioner of Transport. The 

Minister with responsibility for transport appoints all members, including a Chairman 

and Deputy Chairman. There are no specific requirements in the Act for the transport 

operators to be represented on the Board, and representation is at the discretion and 

invitation of the Minister. 

Ministry of Tourism & Civil Aviation (MOTCA). The MOTCA develops 

comprehensive policies for the tourism industry, either directly or through the 

Department of Civil Aviation (DCA), and/or through its Statutory Bodies, namely the 

Belize Tourism Board and the Border Management Agency. 

Department of Civil Aviation (DCA). The Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) was 

established under the Civil Aviation Act, Chapter 239 of the Laws of Belize. The DCA 

mission is to "promote a safe, efficient and expeditious movement of domestic and 

international air transportation in Belize through the provision of proper regulatory 

procedures in accordance with the air navigation regulations in force and the 

Standards and Recommended Practices of the International Civil Aviation 

Organization (ICAO)". 

The DCA oversees the implementation of Belize’s commitments under the Chicago 

Convention of 1944 related to civil aviation safety, security, environment, efficiency 

and rule of law. The responsibilities of the DCA can be divided into three categories: 

Regulatory & Policy, Services, and Investigations. Details of the responsibilities are 

described in the Civil Aviation Act (CAP 239) and the Civil Aviation Security Act (2007). 

Ministry of Economic Development, Petroleum, Investment, Trade and 

Commerce: This Ministry is of a strategic nature with focus on planning and 

integration across all economic sectors. The Ministry is also responsible for foreign 

trade and international trade negotiations. It is the primary liaison for the economic 

development agenda with CARICOM, for the EU Economic Partnership Agreement 

(EPA), and for bilateral and multilateral relationships. 

Thus, the Ministry has significant influence on investments and technical cooperation 

programs affecting the Transport Sector, either directly, through investments in the 

sector itself, or indirectly through the consolidation of investment projects in other 

sectors affecting the transportation system. This includes tourism, export-based 

commodities such as sugar, petroleum, citrus, shrimp, bananas, rice, beans, and corn. 

This Ministry regulates the export processing zones and the commercial free zones, 

except the Corozal Free Zone. The Belize Trade and Investment Development Service 

(BELTRAIDE), a Statutory Body under this ministry, is further described below. 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Ministry of Finance (MOF). The MOF is the most influential Ministry managing and 

controlling allocation of resources in the public sector. The objectives of the Ministry 

are to advise, coordinate and implement the Government’s economic and fiscal 

policies and programs, including the generation and allocation of financial resources, 

to provide appropriate public services and to contribute to the overall development of 

Belize (https://www.mof.gov.bz/). 

The Ministry of Finance includes the Prime Minister's Office, the Department of 

Finance, the Central Information Technology Office, National ICT Center, Custom & 

Excise Department, Income Tax Department, General Sales Tax Department, Office 

of the Supervisor of Insurance, Budget Unit, Treasury Department, and the Vehicle 

Care Unit. 

The Office of the Prime Minister includes the Economic Development Council (also 

called Business Forum), which is a public-private forum on investments and all issues 

affecting the economic development of the country. This ministry is a key player in the 

development of the Corozal Free Zone, which has a strong impact on the country's 

transport activity as related to the movement of merchandise in and out of the free 

zone. The Ministry of Finance is also responsible for the International Merchant Marine 

Registry of Belize (IMMARBE). 

Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, the Environment & Sustainable 

Development: manages the sustainable rural development and oversees the 

agricultural sector (including livestock and fisheries) to ensure it provides the economic 

base for enhanced economic growth of the country (the rural areas in particular) and 

addresses poverty alleviation. 

The agricultural and food policies are designed to make the agricultural sector more 

efficient and competitive and to contribute to the improvement of the economic and 

social well-being of all Belizeans. Statutory bodies under the ministry include: 

The Belize Agricultural Health Authority. 

Coastal Zone Management Authority & Institute 

Pesticide Control Board 

The International Merchant Marine Registry of Belize (IMMARBE): operates 

through a network of Designated Offices worldwide. These offices process 

applications for registration and issue the relevant documentation. Belize is included 

in the IMO White List and the Registry has attained ISO 9001-2000 Certification by 

ANSI-ASQ National Accreditation Board (USA). On 27 th June 2007, IMMARBE 

received official notification from the United States Coast Guard that for the second 

year in succession, it has re-qualified for its Quality Shipping for 21st Century 

(QUALSHIP 21) Program. Belize is 1 of 10, out of 166 flag states in the world, holding 

this qualification in 2007 and the only one in Central America. 

Ministry of Labor, Local Government and Rural Development. This Ministry is 

responsible for local government legislation and regulation on all matters affecting 

local government, including the administration of Acts relating to city and town 

councils, including transport and traffic services within their jurisdictions. The Ministry 

is responsible for town council legislation and for the mayoral system. 

2.5.1.3. Statutory Boards 

50. Statutory Boards are Government-sponsored agencies created by specific legislation 

(Act) to provide specific services and added value to critical public interests, usually within 

a specific sector. They are guided by policy framework established by the Government 




and operate under the authority of key line Ministries. The Act sets forth regulations, for 

instance for the collection of fees and taxes, and proposes private sector endorsed policy, 

for ministerial consideration and eventually for adoption by the Cabinet. 

51. The Statutory Bodies affecting the transport sector are listed below. 

n 

n 

n 

Belize Port Authority (BPA): is the primary regulator of the maritime sector, and 

oversees the following areas: maritime safety, port security, licensing and registration 

of vessels, licensing of masters, port state control and regulatory oversight for ports - 

- both public and private. 

As described in the Belize Ports Authority Act (CAP 233), the BPA controls port 

operations to serve the public interest; to regulate and control navigation within the 

limits of the ports and their approaches; to maintain, improve and regulate the use of 

such port services and facilities therein, as it considers necessary or desirable; to 

provide for such ports and the approaches for pilotage services, beacons, buoys and 

other navigational services and aids as it considers necessary or desirable; and to 

exercise the duties and functions relating to shipping and navigation exercisable under 

the provisions of any other law. 

Belize Airport Authority (BAA): established under the Belize Airports Authority Act, 

Chapter 238 of the Laws of Belize, Revised Edition 2000. The BAA was established 

to manage and administer prescribed airports, including the provision of all essential 

services and facilities necessary for their efficient operations, including the Philip 

Goldson International Airport, even though the management of this airport was 

outsourced for 30 years to the Belize Airports Concession Company (BACC) in 2004. 

The functions and roles of the BAA are divided into three essential categories: 

management; services; and physical development - focused at 16 aerodromes 

throughout the country. 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Belize Tourism Board (BTB). The BTB affects transportation through its role and 

overseeing of three key committees. 

The Local Water Passenger Vessels and Local Water-sports Vessels Committee 

– This Committee is responsible for receiving, considering and determining 

applications for licenses of local passenger vessels; providing advisory information 

and other related services to license holders; assisting license holders in any matters 

affecting the discharge of their functions; and defining policy guidelines for the 

operation of local water passenger vessels and local water-sports vessels. It also sets 

and revises, on a continuous basis, the licensing criteria for operators, and develops 

rules and regulations for the training of operators and other similar activities. 

Tour Operator Committee - This Committee regulates the operations and tour 

operators of the Belize tourism industry under the Belize Tourism Board Act, Chapter 

275 of the Laws of Belize, Revised Edition 2011, and the Belize Tourism Board (Tour 

Operator) Regulations. This Committee represents the different regions and operators 

of the industry as it relates to licenses, advisory, regulation, consultation and general 

management of this sector in unison with the BTB. 

The Committee provides the necessary input on the rules and regulations for the 

training and other governance of Tour Operators, including influencing decisions on 

the requirements and standards of tour operator equipment and vehicles. 

Aviation Development Committee (ADC) – This Committee is comprised of industry 

representatives including the Belize Tourism Board (BTB), Belize Airport Concession 

Company (BACC), Department of Civil Aviation (DCA), Ministry of Tourism & Civil 




Aviation (MOT&CA), the Tourism Private Sector, Local Airlines Sector and the Hotel 

Sector. 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

The committee’s primary focus is the improvement and development of new airline 

services to Belize to facilitate tourism and other business development. It focuses on 

stimulating additional in-bound arrivals from the USA, Canada, Europe, Asia and 

Central and South America (http://www.belizetourismboard.org/aboutbtb/committeerelations/). 

Institute of Archaeology (IA): is a sub-organization of the National Institute of Culture 

and History (NICH), a Statutory Board of the Ministry of Education, Sports and Culture. 

The IA is responsible for all access roads within archaeological reserves. Currently, 

nine (9) archaeological reserves experience substantial visitation by tourists, with 

intensive use of roads and infrastructure, not just within the reserves, but also on 

access roads leading to the reserves. 

Border Management Authority (BMA): (established in 1999) is primarily responsible 

for the management of Belize's Ports of Entry (PoE): Benque Viejo Border (in the 

West, Guatemalan Border), Santa Elena Border (in the North, Mexican Border) and 

Punta Gorda Town in the Toledo District (maritime port of entry). 

The BMA may construct, alter and maintain buildings at prescribed border points; 

purchase land or buildings; grant, on such terms and conditions as the Agency sees 

fit, authorize to carry on any trade or business at any border points; grant leases, 

subleases, or other interests or concessions in respect of land or buildings within a 

prescribed border point (on such terms and conditions and subject to the payment of 

rent or other consideration as the Agency may see fit); and may carry on such activities 

as appear advantageous, necessary or desirable for or in connection with the exercise 

and performance of its functions. 

This board´s mandate gives it authority over the movement of passengers through 

prescribed Ports of Entry (PoE), including responsibility for the infrastructure to 

accommodate buses, freight trucks and private vehicles entering and leaving Belize. 

The BMA also has a similar responsibility at POE designated for boats and works in 

collaboration with other affiliates, such as Customs, Immigration and Police. Belize 

Agricultural Health Authority (BAHA) is empowered to regulate the restriction or 

prohibition of transporting any person, animal or thing, by public road, thoroughfare or 

river, or through an infected place or area. BAHA is particularly active at PoEs where 

plant and animal materials are transported as exports or imports. 

Belize Trade and Investment Development Service (BELTRAIDE). This is a 

Statutory Body of the Government of Belize, under the portfolio of the Ministry of 

Economic Development, Petroleum, Investment, Trade and Commerce. 

The primary functions of BELTRAIDE are to give advice and recommendations to the 

Minister on the formulation of appropriate policies to guide trade and investment, 

including: product development and promotion, industries to be targeted for 

investment, export promotion programs particularly for Belizean non-traditional 

products, potential export markets, local and foreign investments in Belize, trade and 

investment promotion programs, multilateral and bilateral loan-assisted projects for 

medium and small enterprises, and information on international trade and investment. 

It advises and assists the Government with international agreements; global trade 

policies, trade register, implementation of the Fiscal Incentives Act, and performs the 

functions of a one-stop information center for investors or potential investors, 

furnishing them with full information concerning investment procedures and 

requirements in Belize. The role of BELTRAIDE related to the Fiscal Incentives Act is 




crucial in the screening process for investments, which may affect the Transport 

Sector. 

2.5.1.4. Municipal Bodies 

52. The role of municipal bodies in the Transport Sector is determined by their respective bylaws 

available under the Town Councils Act (CAP 87), the Belize City Council Act (CAP 

85) and Subsidiary Act (CAP 85S), the Belmopan City Council Act (CAP 86) and 

Subsidiary act (CAP 86S), and the Village Councils Act (CAP 86). 

53. In general, municipal authorities are responsible for street maintenance and lighting, 

drainage, and rubbish collection services. They also have discretionary powers over other 

services including infrastructure and the licensing of motor vehicles and trade (these areas 

affect most of the transport policy). 

54. The local registration of motor vehicles has resulted in the lack of a standard national 

registration system and has made traffic control difficult for national authorities. Municipal 

authorities of towns located at border crossings impose taxes, which subsequently affect 

cross-border transport, such as Benque Viejo City Council and Corozal City Council. 

55. Municipal governments play a significant role in the development of transport 

infrastructure within their jurisdictions, which are primary hubs within the overall national 

transportation network. In some cases, they are critical gateways to prime tourism 

destinations or access to maritime ports. In the specific cases of San Pedro and Dangriga, 

the municipal authorities also regulate some aspects of transport by boat, including the 

designation of No-Wake Zones, as is the case of the San Pedro Town Council. 

56. Belize City is the largest municipality with the largest concentration of vehicles, as well as 

substantial traffic flow in and out of the city on a daily basis. The primary function of the 

Belize City Council Traffic Department is to enforce the Motor Vehicle and Road Traffic 

Laws of Belize. Traffic and transport related functions of the department, as defined in the 

Belize City Council’s website (http://www.belizecitycouncil.org/traffic-department) include: 

issuance and renewal of drivers’ license and vehicle license for all individuals and vehicles 

registered in Belize City; inspection of all modes of transportation that require a license 

under the law to traffic on any street; monitoring and supervision of all parades, funerals 

and similar activities which impede the normal flow of traffic; regulation of parking and all 

activities related to parking within the city; strategic placement of appropriate traffic signs 

throughout the city; and public education on basic traffic laws. Hence, it works closely 

with the Police Department, Transport Board, and the Ministry of Transport. 

Legal Framework and Primary Legislation 

57. The legal and institutional framework of the Belize transport sector is diverse, and is 

shared amongst numerous Government Ministries, Statutory Boards, and Municipal 

Bodies. The sector is governed by a complex web of legal instruments, both national and 

international. The applicable legal frameworks are listed below, for the primary legislation 

relevant to the transport sector. The Baseline Analysis Report provides summary 

descriptions of the applicable legal framework. 

58. National Legislation 

n 

n 

Belize Airports Authority (BAA) Act (CAP 238 from 1989, including Revised Edition 

2000 and S.I.S) contains the establishment of the Belize Airports Authority, and the 

financial and management and staff aspects for its operation. 

Civil Aviation Act (CAP 239 from 1992, including Revised Edition 2000 and Subsidiary 

Regulations) contains aspects related to the regulation and control of civil aviation, the 




Department of Civil Aviation, regulations of aerodromes and other lands, as well as 

liabilities for damage caused by aircrafts. 

n Civil Aviation Security Act (2007) (gazetted in 2008) contains provisions for the 

organization and operation of the Civil Aviation Security Committee, offences, financial 

and other legal and general provisions. 

n Public Roads Act (CAP 232 of 1923, Revised Edition December 2000) includes 

responsibilities and duties of the Chief Engineer; provisions related to the District Road 

Boards and Road Declarations; powers regarding cutting trees; erecting structures, 

such as, fences, bridges; penalties and other miscellaneous provisions. 

n Motor Vehicles and Road Traffic Act (CAP 230 of 1939 - Parts I-IV; VI-VIII; 1938 -Part 

V; Revised Edition 2000) contains provisions related to the Department of Transport; 

the Transport Advisory Council; registration and licensing of motor vehicles, driving 

licenses, registration of bicycles, licensing of second-hand dealers of bicycles, driving 

and other offences, and general conditions relating to the use of roads, legal 

proceedings, cancellation and endorsement of driving licenses; fees and duties, 

concessions to operate omnibuses, provisions related to Belize City Council, as well 

as, other miscellaneous provisions. 

n Belize City Council Act (CAP 85 of 1999 Revised Edition 2000 and Subsidiary 

Regulations) includes provisions related to the constitution of the Belize City Council; 

its duties and powers; appointment of officers and servants; conditions of service; 

elections, Council meetings and proceedings; Belize City Fund; financial provisions, 

pensions and other general provisions. 

n Belize Port Authority Act (CAP 233 of 1976 - Parts I-IV and XI-XII, 1980 - Parts VI, V, 

VIII and IX-X, 1981- Part VII Revised Edition 2000 and its subsidiaries) contains 

provisions on the establishment, constitution and management of the Authority and 

the staff; duties and general powers; land, property and undertakings; financial 

provisions; responsibilities of the Authority such as warehouseman, duties and 

charges; special provisions for pilotage related to ports, offences, transfer of assets, 

liabilities, functions and other miscellaneous and general powers (CAP 233s on tariffs 

and CAP 234s on the delineation of the wharves) 

n Harbours and Merchant Shipping Act (CAP 234 of 1966 Revised Edition 2003) 

contains regulations for landing and storage of goods (fee); Fort George Wharf 

regulations, Public Wharves; Harbour Board, tonnage and wharf charges, light dues, 

Big Creek Channel, Coastal and River Passengers Trade (fees), Harbour, Court 

House Wharf, Commerce Bight Pier, Corozal Town Pier, Punta Gorda Pier, Dangriga 

Pier. 

n Harbours and Merchant Shipping (Amendment and Consolidation) Act 2007 contains 

provisions for general management of harbours; coastal and river passenger trade; 

foreign vessels; unseaworthy ships; shipwrecks and casualties, general and 

supplemental provisions. 

n Merchant Ships (Registration) Act of 1989 as amended in 1996 Revised Edition 2011 

provides the legal framework for the registration of ships and mortgages. 

n Belize Tourism Board Act (CAP 275 of 1990 Revised Edition 2003 and subsidiary 

laws) includes provisions for the establishment and composition of the Board and its 

operations; functions of the Chairman and Deputy Chairman, tenure or office and 

provisions related to the functions of other members, power, assets and other 

miscellaneous provisions. 

n Border Management Agency Act (CAP 144 of 2000 Revised Edition 2003) includes 

departure and processing fees, regulations for foreign-owned passenger buses, transit 

fees, regulations of motor vehicles and parking fees, littering offences, violation tickets, 

foreign cargo vehicles, and axle fee. 

n Belize Agricultural Health Authority Act (CAP 211 of 2001 Revised Edition 2003) 

includes provisions regarding export certifications, boarding of vessels and aircrafts; 

and in-transit commodities. 




59. International Convention and Agreements- Aviation and Maritime: 

n Convention on International Civil Aviation (also known as Chicago Convention of 

1944) includes air navigation general principles, international standards and 

recommended practices, the International Civil Aviation Organization structure and 

operation; air transport regulations for airports and other navigation facilities; joint 

operating organization and pooled services. 

n Central American Cooperation for Air Navigation Services (COCESNA of 1960, Belize 

accessed in 1995) has exclusive rights for the provision of air traffic services, 

aeronautical telecommunications, navigational aids and aeronautical information. 

n Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules relating to International Carriage by Air 

(also known as Warsaw Convention of 1929 amended in 1955, 1971 and 1999, signed 

by Belize in 1999 and made effective in 2003) includes regulations regarding liabilities 

for international carriage by air. 

n Convention on Offences and Certain Other Acts Committed On Board Aircraft (1963, 

signed by Belize in 1998) 

n Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Aircraft (1970, signed by Belize 

in 1998) 

n Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation 

(1971, signed by Belize in 1998) 

n Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of Violence at Airports Serving 

International Civil Aviation, Supplementary to the Convention for the Suppression of 

Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation (1971, signed by Belize in 1998) 

n Limitation of Liability for Maritime Claims Convention (LLMC) (1976, signed by Belize 

in 1980) 

n International Convention on Maritime Search and Rescue (1979, as amended and 


n International Convention on Tonnage Measurement for Ships (TONNAGE) (1969, 


n International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) (1974, as amended 

and its Protocol signed by Belize in 1991) includes regulations on minimum safety 

standards for the construction, equipment and operation of ships; as well as, control 

provisions known as State Control Procedure to allow contracting governments to 

revise the ships of others. 

n International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (1973, as modified 

by the Protocol of 1978 relating thereto, and by the Protocol of 1997 (MARPOL) and 

subscribed by Belize in 1997). 

n International Convention on Load Lines Convention and Protocol (1966 and 

subscribed by Belize in 1991). 

n International Convention on Standards for Training Certification and Watch-keeping 

for Seafarers (STCW) (1978, as amended and ratified by Belize in 1997). 

n Maritime Labor Conventions (6 where ratified in 1983 and 7 in 2005). 

n International Regulation for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) (1972, as 

amended, and subscribed by Belize in 1991). 

n Protocol of 1978 relating to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution 

from Ships (1973, as amended (MARPOL 73/78) and signed by Belize in 2007. 

n ILO Merchant Shipping (Minimum Standards) Convention (1976 and its protocol 1996 

and ratified by Belize in 2005). 

n United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (ratified in 1983). 

2.6 ROAD TRANSPORT 




Road System 

60. The Belize road network, shown in Table 2-1, consists of approximately 8,078 miles 

(13,000 km); of which the primary roads total 373 miles (601 km) long (5% of total), and 

the secondary roads total 1,137 miles (1,831 km) long (14% of total). In contrast, most of 

the road network consists of lower class roads, 6,633 miles (10,675 km) (81% of total), of 

which footpaths (not regularly used by motorized vehicles and only suitable for four-wheel 

drive vehicles) comprise 3,495 miles (5,625 km) (43 % of total). 

Table 2-1: 

Belize road network 

Road Class Length (km) % of Total 

Primary Road 601 5% 

Secondary Road 1,831 14% 

Major Road 2,401 18% 

Minor Road 2,649 20% 

Foot path 5,625 43% 

61. The CNTMP is concerned mainly with the primary road network and upgrades of selected 

secondary road networks. 

2.6.1.1. Primary Highway 

62. The Belize Highway (Primary roads) system consists of four (4) major sections totalling 

373 miles (601 km), as follows (see Figure 2-3): 

n Philip S.W. Goldson Highway (Northern Highway): Mexico Border-Orange Walk- 

Belize City, 91.2 miles (146.9 km) 

n George Price Highway (Western Highway: Belize City-Belmopan-Guatemala Border, 

77 miles (124.7 km) 

n Hummingbird Highway: Belmopan-Blue Hole National Park-Dangriga, 54.4 miles (87.6 

km) 

n Southern Highway: Punta Gorda Town-Savanah Forest Station-Hummingbird 

Highway, 97.7 miles (157.3 km) 

63. And three shorter sections: 

n 

n 

n 

Hattieville-Boom, 11.9 miles (19.2 km) 

Orange Walk Bypass, 4.86 miles (7.8 km) 

Manatee (Coastal) Road, 35.79 miles (57.6 km) 




Figure 2-3: 

Belize Primary Highways, Sea Ports and Airports 

2.6.1.2. Road Pavement Condition and Maintenance Needs 

64. MOW has gathered a computerized GIS of the road network. This information was 

complemented with a comprehensive in-field, drive-through survey of the entire primary 

highway network, which included road geometry, safety features and pavement conditions 

for each section of the Primary Highway, supported by an extensive tabulation and 

mapping system. Most road pavement conditions ranged from "Good" to "Fair" (see 

Figure 2-4). 




Figure 2-4: 

Road Pavement Conditions 

65. In general, most highway sections reveal good conditions on most of their curves (see 

Table 2-2). Only the Hattieville-Boom Highway needs widening in most of its curves, and 

there is only one curve along the George Price Highway whose super-elevation needs to 

be revised. 

66. The highway sections exhibit regular and good cross-sections (see Table 2-3). The 

conditions along the Hattieville–Boom Highway are, however, outstanding. Other highway 

sections have their shoulders affected by erosion of water, due to lack of clearness on 

both sides. Noticeably, the Philip S.W. Goldson Highway has 20% of its lanes narrower 

than regulations. 

67. The type of pavement of the highways in Belize is chip and seal, and according to the 

MoW, most of them have not had reconstruction in more than ten years. Eighteen percent 

(18%) of the roads in Belize are paved, seventy-five percent (75%) are gravel, and eight 

percent (8%) are unpaved, dirt roads (see 

68. Figure 2-5). 

69. Based on the detailed in-field visual investigations of the pavement condition in the primary 

road highways, the consultant estimates that the most urgent periodic maintenance needs 

US$15.7 million, in the next four (4) years, to keep the primary road network in optimal 

conditions. 




Highway 

Table 2-2: 

Long 

(km) 

George Price 124.72 

Hattieville - Boom 19.19 

Philip S.W. Golson 146.91 

Orange Walk 

Bypass 

7.82 

Hummingbird 87.59 

Southern 157.34 

Manatee 57.58 

Road geometry condition on the main highways 

Terrain 

Widening in Super-elevation in 

Curves 

Flat Rolling Hilly 

Curves 

Curves 

0 km 29.8 km 94.92 km 

87 87 

88 

0% 24% 76% 99% 99% 

0 km 11.8 km 0 km 

6 11 

11 

0% 100% 0% 54.55% 100% 

108.91 km 38 km 0 km 

47 47 

47 

74% 26% 0 54.55% 100% 

0 km 7.82 km 0 km 

5 5 

5 

0% 100% 0% 100.00% 100 % 

0 km 0 km 87.59 km 

97 97 

97 

0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 

0 km 0 km 157.34 km 

95 95 

95 

0% 0% 100% 100.00% 100 % 

36.68 km 18.9 km 0 km 

38 38 

38 

67% 33% 0 100% 100% 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017 

Table 2-3: 

Cross- section condition on the main highways 

Highway Long (km) Grade Right of Way Lane Shoulders Camber 

George Price 124.72 48% 

100 ft. 22 ft. 3 ft. 2% 

50% 100% 10% 0% 

Hattieville - Boom 19.19 72% 

100 ft. 22 ft. 3 ft. 2% 

100.00% 100.00% 10.00% 100.00% 

Philip S.W. Golson 146.91 46% 

100 ft. 22 ft. 3 ft. 2% 

64% 80% 41% 0% 

Orange Walk Bypass 7.82 100% 

100 ft. 22 ft. 3 ft. 2% 

100% 100% 100% 100% 

Hummingbird 87.59 74% 

100 ft. 22 ft. 3 ft. 2% 

100.00% 100.00% 70.00% 100.00% 

Southern 157.34 78% 

100 ft. 22 ft. 3 ft. 2% 

100.00% 100.00% 73% 40.70% 


Figure 2-5: 

Paved/ Unpaved Roads, by Districts 

400 

350 

300 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

COROZAL O-WALK BELIZE CAYO S-CREEK TOLEDO 

Paved Gravel Earth 

Source: MoW, 2016 




2.6.1.3. Traffic Signage Conditions 

70. Along the primary road highways in Belize, the exiting vertical signs are in good conditions; 

however, there are not enough. Many necessary signs are non-existent, making it risky to 

drive, especially during darkness. Thus, the overall assessment for vertical signs is “bad”, 

except for a small section from Belmopan to about St. Margaret on the Hummingbird 

Highway which is rated “good”, and the Hattieville–Boom section which is rated “fair”. 

71. The horizontal signs along the primary road highway are rated from “fair” to “bad” with the 

Philip S.W. Goldson Highway, the George Price Highway, and the Manatee Road rated 

“bad” and all other highways rated “fair”. 

2.6.1.4. Road Safety 

72. Belize has high accident rates. In 2015, the number of reported road accidents was about 

1,800, including 82 fatalities. Since 2011, the number of accidents decreased (from about 

2,400 to 1,800), despite a likely increase in traffic output (veh-km); however, the number 

of fatalities increased and the fatalities/accidents rate (deaths / 1000 accidents) increased 

from 24% in 2011 to 45% in 2015. This high death rate in Belize is a public health concern 

with significant social and economic repercussions. According to the estimation of the 

Economic Impact of Road Traffic Injuries in Belize of the Pan American Health 

Organization, in 2007, the cost of accidents in Belize was estimated at 1% of GDP. 

Road Traffic Counts & Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys 

2.6.2.1. Survey Types and Survey Locations 

73. Travel demand estimates are based for the most part on road surveys, as well as, 

domestic aviation and water taxi O-D surveys conducted by the Consultant between 

January 9 and February 10, 2017. The surveys included: (1) Automatic counts of road 

vehicles located at 13 strategic points conducted for seven days, 24 hours; (2) Manual 

counts of road vehicles, at the same points to verify and calibrate automatic counts; (3) 

Day-time O-D surveys of drivers and road passengers at the strategic points (weekdays 

and weekends); (4) O-D survey of truckers at Belize Ports, (5) O-D survey of water taxi 

passengers; (6) O-D survey of domestic air passengers. Figure 2-6 shows the road survey 

locations. 

2.6.2.2. Purpose and Content 

74. The purpose of the O-D surveys was to identify characteristics of all the road users, for 

use as input to the Travel Demand Model. The data collected included: (i) origin and 

destination; (ii) trip purpose (job, studies, recreation, shopping, and others); (iii) travel 

frequency; (iv) travel security perception; (v) estimated travel time (from origin to 

destination); (vi) number of passengers per vehicle; (vii) make and model of vehicle. In 

addition, for trucks, the O-D survey also recorded: (viii) type of cargo; (ix) type of trailer 

box; and (x) vehicle ownership (company or personal). 

2.6.2.3. Average Daily Traffic 

75. A total of 12,516 surveys were carried out and analysed using various survey 

methodologies. Using a mathematical expansion formula, the Consultant estimated 

Weekly Average Daily Traffic (WADT) in each of the survey stations. The highest WADT 

(5,506) was found in station 13, Corozal, located at the north; and the lowest WADT, at 

station 12 (1,644) and station 11 (1,566), located at the southern Toledo District. Chapter 

3 describes in detail the estimated and the modelled WADT. 




Figure 2-6: 

Road Survey Locations 

76. Table 2-4 shows the overall estimate of a weekly check of the average daily private road 

vehicle trips and passengers, trucks trips and tons of cargo, and public transport 

passengers for the country. 

Table 2-4: 

Summary of average daily trips/passenger and trips/tons by vehicle group 

in 2017 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trip Purpose Trips Passengers* 

Share of Total 

Passengers 

Private Road 

Vehicle 

Job 18.065 37.937 65,4% 

Recreation 3.119 6.550 64,7% 

Other 8.684 18.236 67,0% 

Studies 860 1.807 15,6% 

Total 30.728 64.530 60,3% 

* Passengers estimates consider an occupation factor of 2,1. 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trip Purpose 

Passengers 


Passengers 

Public 

Transport 

Job 20.113 34,6% 

Recreation 3.580 34,6% 

Other 8.967 34,6% 

Studies 9.799 34,6% 

Total 42.459 34,6% 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trucks 

Category Trips Tons* 

Semi Trailer 3.003 22.521 

Trailer 583 8.155 

Full Trailer 47 796 

Total 3.633 31.472 

*Tons estimates consider the round trip weight. 





77. There are around 107,000 passengers on an average day (almost 140 million passengers 

per year). Roughly 35% of passengers travel in public transport, except for the passengers 

traveling for study purposes, for which the public transport share is 84%. 

78. For freight, the average 31,472 tons per day translates to more than 11.3 million tons per 

year. The average hauling per vehicle-trip is 7.5 tons for semi-trailers, 14 tons for trailers, 

and 16.9 tons for full-trailers (8.7 tons average for all trucks). This low hauling reflects the 

high proportion of empty truck movements. 

2.6.2.4. Road Traffic Assignment 

79. The following Figure 2-7 shows the base year (2017) q road traffic assignment for cars, 

trucks and public transport passengers. Section 3.1 and Section 3.2 of this report 

provides a detailed description of the existing and forecasted road demand methodology 

and results. 




Figure 2-7: 

Base Year (2017) Road Assignment 

Cars Trucks Public transport 

Passengers 




Major Road Transport Problems and Issues 

80. The main problems identified during the review of the existing situation are the following: 

n 

Deficiencies in the road maintenance system. In Belize’s Primary Highway 

Network, 27% of the surface is in bad condition; 69% in fair conditions; and only 4% 

in good condition. Raveling, potholes, and edge cracking are found along the network. 

Several elements play a role in the shortcomings on road maintenance: 

- Insufficient budget: according to the CNTMP estimates, the maintenance budget 

only covers 60% of the optimum budget to maintain the primary network. This does 

not include other rural roads with importance as feeders. MoW receives yearly a 

similar proportion of the national budget regardless of the increase of network 

extension. It is evident that the funding needs for maintenance are increasing as 

the network develops; the new paved sections around Blue Creek or the road to 

Jalacte are examples of this. Finding a sustainable solution for road maintenance 

is not easy. Several options are presented later in this report; whereas it is unlikely 

to find a solution in the short-term, a combination of short-term and medium-term 

actions is explored to address this issue. 

- Outdated construction methods: the common method used in Belize (“chip and 

seal”) is characterized by a low cost for investment and a high cost of maintenance. 

Moreover, as it ravels easily, it is not an appropriate method for the climate of 

Belize. A change in the standard is suitable. However, the real application of this 

change depends on the capacity of the local contractors to adapt to new 

construction methods. 

- Lack of control of vehicle weights and overloads; former surveys showed that over 

25% of the trucks were overloaded. In a country with difficulties to protect the road 

assets, clear regulation on vehicle weights and proper enforcement would help, 

with relatively low cost, to protect the road network 

n 

Road Safety. There are more accidents in Belize than in the average of the Central 

American countries. It is difficult to determine the causes of road accidents in Belize 

due to the lack of detailed statistics. But the road safety issue seems related to: 

- Infrastructure: there is limited vertical and horizontal signaling even if efforts are 

under way in this area. Other elements increasing safety risk are narrow bridges 

in poor conditions (various road sections still have a single-lane bridge on a duallane 

highway, which poses road safety and congestion issues) and insufficient 

shoulder width (the current shoulder width of only 3 feet is too narrow to allow safe 

passing of heavy trucks and safe bus stops). 

- Behavior of drivers: speeds on the network are a major problem, as illustrated 

by a speed survey conducted in November 2011 which indicated that more than 

50% of vehicles exceeded the posted limit. 

- Vehicles: there is no technical inspection of vehicles. After a pilot program 

implemented between Belize City and Belmopan focused on infrastructure and 

enforcement with good results, it is logical to roll out the program to the rest of the 

country, but the lack of resources is the main constraint. 

n 

Below average quality of the road network. According to the regional scenario (see 

Table 2-5), the quality of Belizean roads is below the average considering they have 

been qualified as poor (3.0) compared to the rest of the countries in the region (3.7) 

and the rest of the world (3.5). 




Table 2-5: 

Regional Comparison of Roads 

Country 

Km of road Population Sq Km of GDP 2016 Km of road/ Quality of 

(2015) (2016) land area (US$ billions) Sq Km of land roads (WEF) 

Belize 5,050 366,954 22,810 1.7 0.22 3.0 

El Salvador 6,979 6,344,722 20,720 26.8 0.34 3.9 

Guatemala 17,621 16,582,469 107,160 68.8 0.16 3.4 

Mexico 377,660 127,540,423 1,943,950 1,045.9 0.19 4.3 

Costa Rica 39,018 4,857,274 51,060 57.4 0.76 2.7 

Dominican Republic 19,705 10,648,791 48,310 71.5 0.41 4.4 

Jamaica 22,121 2,881,355 10,830 14.0 2.04 3.8 

Source: World Bank, 2016; WEF, 2017 

n 

n 

Insufficiency of redundancies in the road network. The low population of the 

country and budget constraints make it difficult to invest in the road network to create 

new access to regions with low accessibility or improve the existing ones. In many 

cases, only one acceptable road exists, resulting in a high vulnerability of the road 

network to natural disasters. Since extending the primary network requires significant 

resources, most of the proposals are presented for the medium and long term. 

Insufficient capacity in the road transport sector. The unsatisfactory capacity 

manifests not only in the public sector but also in the private sector. 

For the Ministry of Works, the following elements were identified: 

- The technical staff has been decreasing as the private sector proposes better 

financial conditions and engineers tend to quit the Ministry, as soon as, they have 

won enough experience to become consultants 

- There is a real lack of skills in certain disciplines as transport economics/planning, 

legal/contractual issues, hydrology… 

- The monitoring process requested by the IFIs tend to be pretty demanding, in 

some cases with high amounts of bureaucracy and low flexibility 

For the reasons above, some of the trainings are not effective as often the staff is not 

available or cannot focus enough on the training 

For the private sector, the main weaknesses are as follows: 

- Low size of companies, and low number of competent contractors 

- Lack of knowledge of newer methods 

- As the construction tends to be a protected market, programs funded by IFIs tend 

to divide the roads in very small road sections, so the local contractors are eligible. 

This has a double consequence: it reduces the attraction of those contracts for 

international countries that could transfer knowledge, and it increases the 

bureaucracy and the monitoring efforts, as the number of contracts is higher. This 

also harms local companies that wish to benefit from the technology transfer. 

- Local consultants have difficulties to align works supervision to IFIs procedures 

MoW capacity problems seems to be mainly a problem of lack of staff, which reduces the 

efficacy of trainings. Suggestions are presented in this report, but if implemented they will 

only have impact mostly at medium term. 

Private-sector capacity problems are more complex (concentrated market structure with 

reduced size of companies, reduced knowledge of state-of-the-art construction methods 

and IFIs procedures), requiring a coordinated effort between public and private sectors. 




2.7 PORTS AND MARITIME 

Ports Facilities and Cargo Movements 

81. Belize has two main commercial seaports: Port of Belize, located in Belize City, and Port 

of Big Creek, located in the south, about 70 miles south of Belize City. Both are privately 

operated. 

2.7.1.1. Port of Belize 

82. The primary cargo entry port is mostly for containers and manufactured consumer 

products as well as fuel import, for which it enjoys monopoly status). The Port of Belize 

was established in 1978 as a pubic port and privatized in 2002. Because the private 

investor was unable to repay its financial obligations, it was placed under receivership by 

its lenders who took control of the port. 

83. The port is reached by an access channel 4.6 km (2.85 miles) long, 120 m (393 ft.) wide, 

dredged to -10 m (32 ft.) in 2000-2001. The turning basin is 340 m (1,115 ft.). 

84. The marine facilities at Port of Belize (see Figure 2-8) comprise: 

n 

n 

n 

One main wharf “King’s Wharf” where the depth is now limited to -8.5 m (28 ft.), 

eventhough, it was dredged to -10.00 m (33 ft.) in 2008, it seems that siltation is an 

issue. King’s Wharf is at the extremity of an access trestle which is 762 m (2,500 ft.) 

long and 3.66 m-wide (12 ft.). The wharf is 67 m-long (220 ft.) and 21 m-wide (69 ft.) 

and can accommodate one vessel only with length up to 149 m (489 ft.) and 600-800 

TEUs maximum capacity. 

One “low berth” which is 150 m-long (492 ft.) with a depth of only -2 m (6.5 ft.); it is 

primarily used for transporting domestic cargo by barge to/from the Caye. 

One Ro-Ro ramp, which is unused due to lack of demand. 

85. Outside the port to the east, there is an oil depot managed by PUMA Energy, the sole 

importer of petroleum products in the country, which unloads tankers (6.00 meters 

maximum draft) through a sea line and buoys. 

86. Adjacent to the port to the west there is an unfinished cruise terminal. The project, initiated 

in 2003 by Carnival and a local partner, did not materialize due to divergence of views in 

the group of investors. 

87. Presently, in the absence of a cruise terminal, all cruisers calling in the Port of Belize 

anchor in the Belize City harbour. Embarking and disembarking passengers use highspeed 

boats between the cruiser and the cruise passenger terminal in the “Tourism 

Village” in the center of Belize City, on Haulover Creek, and a few miles east of the Port 

of Belize. 

88. The total land area of its onshore facilities is estimated to be approximately 10 ha (100,000 

m²) half of which is used for two container yards (31,000 m² and 19,000 m²). The capacity 

of the yard is estimated to approximately 2,000 TEUs, with a stacking height of 3-4 

containers. The port has one 7,000m² storage warehouse. 

89. The following Table 2-6 summarizes the main facilities at the Port of Belize. 




Figure 2-8: 

Aerial View of the Port of Belize 

Table 2-6: 

Physical Characteristics of the Port of Belize 

90. Excluding passenger ships, which, as noted, anchor in the Belize City harbour, the Port of 

Belize currently (2015) services about 200 ships per year, about 80% of them feeder 

containerships with regular service (3 services per week, 1 for CFS, 2 for Hyde). The 

tendency has been to increase the TEU´s handled per call (from 165 in 2009 to 315 in 

2015, moving 255,021 tons in 153 ships), thus reducing the number of serviced ships. 

91. Non-container ships include imported petroleum products (170,045 tons in 2015) with their 

own berthing facilities and export bulk sugar ships (125,400 tons in 2015) that berth 

offshore. Other non-container ships for imports (dry bulk, breakbulk cargo & other noncontainerized 

cargo, 255,494 tons in 2015) and exports (molasses, citrus and others, 

123,900 tons in 2015) use King’s Wharf. Section 3.5 of this report provides more detailed 

description of the current and expected future demand in the Port of Belize. 

92. Whilst there is no statistical information on vessel berth times, given King’s Wharf 

restrictive facilities (single berth, with limited manoeuvring space and narrow access 

trestle), it should soon reach full capacity. To cope with this capacity limitation, the Port of 

Belize has stated that it is investing in modernizing its cargo handling equipment, but 

additional cargo throughput will require additional berthing facilities. 

2.7.1.2. Port of Big Creek 

93. The Port of Big Creek was established in 1990 as a private port facility to export bananas 

and other agricultural products, largely citrus fruit concentrate. Since 2006, it is also used 

for exporting crude oil and recently exporting sugar from a new production site in the west. 




94. The access channel to Port of Big Creek is 5 mile-long, 7 m-deep (23 ft.) and 63 m-wide 

(207 ft.). This limits the size of the bulk carriers entering the port to small handy size 

vessels with a maximum carrying capacity of 13,000 t. The diameter of the turning basin 

is 303 m (995 ft.) and its depth -10.00 m (33 ft.). It was initially dredged in 1990 when the 

port was established and subsequently in 1998. It seems that siltation is not a major issue. 

95. Dredging works are presently contemplated to deepen it to -11 m (36 ft.) and widen it to 

93 m (305 ft.), (see details in Section 6.3.4 below). When dredging is completed, the Port 

of Big Creek will be able to accommodate vessels of LOA of 225 m (738 ft.) with a draft of 

10.5 m (34 ft.). 

96. The Big Creek Port marine facilities comprise two berths with a total length of 305 m (1,000 

ft.) (see Figure 2-9). The depth at berth is -10 m (33 ft.). A third berth is presently under 

completion. Its length is 213 m (699 ft.) and its, depth -11 m (36 ft.). 

Figure 2-9: 

Aerial Views of the Port of Big Creek 

97. The total port area is 25 ha with large possibilities of extension. It has a container yard 

with 120 plugs for reefer containers, three warehouses for bananas, citrus and sugar, cold 

storage facilities and fuel storage facilities with a capacity for 58,000 barrels (~9,000 m 3 ). 

98. The following Table 2-7 summarizes the main facilities at Port of Belize Ltd. 

Table 2-7: 

Physical Characteristics of the Port of Big Creek 




99. The traffic in the Port of Big Creek was 342,000 tons in 2015. Imports are dominated by 

general cargo, cardboards and boxes, cement and fertilizer (149,481 tons in 2015). 

Exports are dominated by bananas (124,275 tons in 2015) and crude oil (58,318 tons in 

2015). Banana exports have been relatively stable, whereas crude oil is diminishing and 

is expected to end by 2025. Other export products, such as citrus products and notably 

sugar (from Santander Sugar Corp) are projected to grow in importance. Section 3.5 of 

this report provides a more detailed description of the current and expected future demand 

in the Port of Big Creek. 

100. There is no statistical information on ship arrivals and berth times, but with the two berths, 

and a third one under construction, berth occupancy rates should not be an issue. 

2.7.1.3. Other Port Facilities 

101. A third commercial seaport at Commerce Bight just south of Dangriga in the central region 

of Belize was built in 1980 by the Government at the site of former private port facilities 

built in 1908 and destroyed by a hurricane in 1942. Commerce Bight Port has been 

inactive since the 90s. The question whether this port could be developed as an alternative 

port for handling bulk commodities has recently been the subject of a study performed 

under the auspices of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 5 . (The option to 

activate Commerce Bight is considered in more detail in Section 6.3.4.3 of this report.) 

102. In Stann Creek District, nearby the Big Creek Port, Belize Island Holdings Ltd. has been 

awarded in 2015 a license to build, operate and manage a private cruise port facility 

exclusively for cruise ships on Harvest Caye. 

103. There are few other port facilities listed as “port” in the Port Authority Act, namely Corozal 

Port, Dangriga Port, Riversdale Port and Punta Gorda Port. They are fishing ports, 

marinas or water-taxi stations. These ports are not reviewed in this chapter: fishing port 

and marinas are not within the scope of the present study whilst water-taxi transport is 

addressed in the chapter on public transport. 

Major Ports and Maritime Problems and Issues 

104. In summary, the main problems identified by the Consultant can be synthetized under the 

following topics: 

105. The Port of Belize suffers from infrastructural limitations negatively impacting port 

productivity and competitiveness: 

n 

n 

n 

The port configuration with limited space available at the King’s Wharf and the long 

and narrow access trestle (which is also now aged) hampers the circulation of handling 

equipment, tractors and trailers trucks and forces tractors with trailers carrying 

containers to constantly transport containers between the berth and the container yard 

with only one narrow passing area, thereby hampering operational efficiency. 

The limited length of the berth at King’s Wharf allows only one single vessel at a time 

whilst priority is given to container vessels; this, together with the lack of appropriate 

storage area for dry bulk hampers the development of dry bulk traffic. 

No clear long-term vision. Several needs will arise for the port in the short-medium 

term, depending on traffic growth rates. Actions to better serve bulk carriers and cruise 

5 

Comparative analysis of port operation in Belize – Technical Note n°IDB-TN1236 – Emily Morris and Michel Audigé 

– January 2017, mentioned as “IDB Technical Note – January 2017” in this report 




passengers would be necessary as soon as possible. It is very likely that additional 

container capacity will be required between the medium and long-term. 

n 

n 

n 

The existing land available in the port makes it possible to propose different 

configurations for the development of the port. To implement some of the solutions in 

the medium term (2025), it would be necessary to start soon a feasibility study and the 

detailed designs. However, the situation seems in stagnation. If a solution is not found 

relatively soon, there are several potential risks: 

Possible emergence of more congestion for container and bulk cargo, with impact on 

costs for both imports and exports. 

Risk of loss of tourist traffic due to the lack of proper infrastructure to receive the cruise 

passengers. In the extreme case, but not impossible, Norwegian Cruise Line could 

propose that other cruise companies dock in its cruise terminal in Harvest Caye. This 

could give the cruise companies the capacity to create their own activities and circuits 

in the south of the country, bypassing local operators and increasing their own 

margins. The impact for the economy of Belize City and the central part of the country 

would be severe. 

106. Additional bulk issues for sugar exports. The current system for transporting sugar in bulk 

by barge from the Tower Hill sugar refinery to the deep-water anchorage offshore from 

the Port of Belize is inefficient and not cost effective (see Annex 1 for an analysis of 

logistics options for exporting sugar); the Belize Sugar Industries has manifested its 

preference for bulk facilities in the Port of Belize, if such facilities existed. In addition, the 

Government does not have the means to maintain properly the inland waterways required 

for that transport; a long-lasting solution must be found and implemented. 

107. The Port of Big Creek currently suffers from insufficient depth in its access channel, 

limiting the size of vessels entering the port to small handy-size bulk carriers with a 

maximum carrying capacity of 13,000 tons; this hampers the development of dry bulk 

traffic, particularly of sugar for which there are favourable prospects in the region. The Big 

Creek Group, in charge of the port, is dredging the three miles needed to increase the 

draught to 11 meters. Initially it struggled to financially structure the project; however, 

according to latest developments, this problem would be solved, and the dredging would 

be done during 2018. It is expected that at the end of the project the Port of Big Creek 

will attract bigger ships that can dock directly in the port and hence reduce the maritime 

transport costs for exports (banana and sugar among others). 

108. Commerce Bight Port - The construction of new facilities at Commerce Bight Port near 

Dangriga in the central region of Belize was suggested some years ago. The idea was to 

develop this port as an alternative port for handling bulk commodities for which demand 

has been growing resulting of the expansion of agricultural production in the central region 

of Belize. The issue is controversial, as with the latest developments in the sugar industry 

it is unlikely that there would be enough demand for an additional port in a country the 

size of Belize. However, for some stakeholders, it could be a project to consider in the 

future, especially if the Port of Belize or the Port of Big Creek were not capable of 

implementing projects critically needed to expand their respective capacity. 

109. Overall institutional framework. There are several institutional and regulatory problems 

identified during the preparation of the short-term action plan in the ports sector but 

probably the main issue is the lack of ability of the Government of Belize to influence the 

development of the existing ports. As both are entirely private, the operators could take 

decisions confronted to the strategic interests of the country. To give an example, in this 

study the Consultant developed infrastructure scenarios for medium and long terms, which 

include several options for ports development. The stakeholders selected one of these 

scenarios as more suitable, but at this point in time, there is no guarantee that it can be 




implemented at the ports level as the owners of the ports could choose a different strategy. 

The complicated relationships between GoB and especially the Port of Belize Ltd. make 

it very difficult to establish cooperation between both sectors and to align the development 

strategies. 

110. This is a problem with difficult solutions in the short-term. This is compounded by the 

current institutional situation of the Port of Belize Ltd. where the port owner has been 

placed under receivership by its lenders. This is worrisome situation and a long-lasting 

solution must be found and implemented urgently. 

111. The ideal situation would be that the receiver of the port finds a foreign investor willing to 

buy the Port of Belize and the Government gets into an agreement with such an investor 

on the basis of a common plan for the development of the port, including a revision of the 

license. In that case, it could be possible to reinforce the role of the GoB (through the Port 

Authority). 

112. Outdated regulatory framework. The Ports Authority Act is outdated. The revised law of 

2000 did not introduce major changes to the act that entered into force just after the 

Independence in 1981. The major issues are the following: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Tariffs fixed since the Independence. Some tariffs should be revised to be more in line 

with other regional ports. In parallel, there are services provided by the ports that 

cannot be charged to the customers because they are not included in the applicable 

tariffs of the law. 

The revision of the law was done in 2000; Port of Belize was privatized in 2002. Many 

provisions in the law are inconsistent, as they do not integrate the privatization into 

account as well as today’s differences between the roles of the ports operators and 

the role of Belize Ports Authority. 

Linked to the above, there is a lack of definition for the role for the BPA as “general 

supervisor of port activities”. 

Finally, other issues may require to be clarified. For instance, the maritime 

administration responsibilities are currently distributed between at least three different 

public entities, resulting in a confusing institutional set-up. 

113. Low capacity of the BPA. In addition to the inadequate regulatory framework, BPA 

personnel and management need training and staff reinforcement in several legal and 

operational fields to have enough resources and skills to fulfill its responsibilities. 

114. Stevedoring activities and competitiveness. The organization of stevedoring at the Port of 

Belize, with an outdated gang system based on the “one gang per vessel” principle, 

negatively impacts the productivity of the port and generates high handling costs, thus 

increasing the cost of goods imported and exported to and from Belize. 

115. Lack of data regarding inland waterways. The Ministry of Works, which is in charge of the 

maintenance and development of inland waterways, has neither the budget nor the skills 

to explore the potential of this transport mode. Even a proper mapped network of rivers 

and their navigability is currently lacking. 




2.8 AVIATION 

Airports Facilities 

116. Belize is served by one international airport in Belize City, 5 aerodromes with paved 

runways and 41 with unpaved runways (see Figure 2-3 for the location of the international 

airport and main aerodromes). All of the domestic aerodromes in Belize fall under the 

purview of the Belize Airports Authority. There are 14 prescribed aerodromes (see Table 

2-9 below) which receive regular air traffic and for which the BAA collects passengerrelated 

fees. There are two registered domestic air carriers: Tropic Air and Maya Island 

Air. The Philip Goldson International Airport (PGIA) is the primary gateway into Belize by 

air for both business travellers and tourists, with the majority of tourists then transferring 

to the major tourism destinations of San Pedro, Placiencia, and Caye Caulker via the 

domestic airlines. Consequently, the air transport and tourism sectors are closely linked. 

2.8.1.1. The Philip Goldson International Airport 

117. The Philip Goldson International Airport is the aerodrome of entry and departure for 

international air traffic in Belize, where all formalities concerning customs, immigration, 

health, animal and plant quarantine and similar procedures are carried out and at which 

air traffic services are available on a regular basis. 

118. In 2004, the management of the PGIA was transferred to a private company, the Belize 

Airport Concession Company Limited (BACC) through a Concession Agreement. The 

duration of the Agreement is for 30 years with an option to renew for a further 15 years. 

119. Following an upgrade in 2012 done by BACC, part of the first phase upgrade agreement, 

the PGIA runway was extended in 2012 by approximately 700 meters (2,297 feet) to its 

present length of 2,958 meters (9,705 feet). The design aircraft for this extension is the 

Boeing 767-300 with length 54.9 meters (180 feet) and width 47.5 meters (156 feet) and 

seating capacity of 261 passengers. With this design capacity, the airport can now 

accommodate aircraft such as the Airbus A320-200 and Boeing 727-300, each with 

capacity for approximately 140-150 passengers, and the Airbus A310-300 with 215 

passengers. 

120. With the above stated runway length, the PGIA is categorised as ICAO Code 4 (that Is, 

with 1,800 m / 5,900 ft or more in length). However, PGIA has insufficient safety distances 

for taxiing of aircraft, in particular, those with a large wingspan, which means that there 

are restrictions on manoeuvring on the airfield, with consequent limitations on traffic 

volume. To accommodate the projected increase in airside movements (see Section 

3.6.1), new taxiways with the required separation between runway and taxiway should be 

developed and completed by 2025. 

121. BACC has already embarked on a program of upgrading and expansion of the terminal 

and aircraft parking areas and these should be sufficient until 2030, and possibly beyond. 

122. It is also important to note that the airport is already constrained by the shortage of air 

traffic controllers. At present only two ATC shifts can be staffed and 24-hour operation for 

scheduled air traffic is not possible. Air traffic control at PGIA is responsible for all air 

traffic throughout Belize, international and domestic. A program of recruitment and 

training of new air traffic controllers is urgent and has been recommended as a short-term 

action. 

123. The airside characteristics at PGIA are shown at Table 2-8. 




Table 2-8: 

PGIA Airside Characteristics 

Runway 

Element Dimensions/Number Other 

- length 

- width 

2956 meters / 9700 feet 

45.72 meters / 150 feet Shoulders: 7.56 meters / 24.8 ft 

Taxiway Alpha 45.72 meters / 150 feet 7.62 m/25 ft non-load-bearing shoulders 

Taxiway Bravo 147.5 meters / 484 feet no shoulders 

Taxiway Charlie 147.4 meters / 484 feet no shoulders 

Pavement strength LCN 69 / PCN : 60R/C/W/U Concrete 

Apron pavement 

strength 

LCN 89 

Concrete 

Aircraft Parking Stands 10 Concrete 

Fire Fighting Category 8 

Sources: Belize AIP; www.pgiabelize.com/airport_facilities.htm 

124. On the landside, currently, the airport does not meet the Standards and Recommended 

Practices of ICAO, as regards the separation of incoming and outgoing passengers for 

security reasons, and ideally, domestic passengers should be separated from 

international passengers 6 . In addition, there are no provisions for in-transit passengers 

who must clear customs and immigration, and then re-check for their onward journey. 

However, it should be noted that BACC is in the process of renovating and expanding the 

terminal buildings, including the arrival hall, VIP lounge, departure lounge, and aircraft 

parking, as well as reconfiguration of the car park and relocation of the access road. 

125. Passenger traffic at PGIA increased from 143,928 to 935,603 over the period 2010-2015, 

the majority being international arrivals. The proportion of Belizean travellers against 

international travellers is shown at Figure 2-10 below. Except for arrivals in 2012, 

Belizean residents and overseas nationals average 21% of international arrivals. 

Figure 2-10: Belizean and Tourist International Passenger Arrivals 

6 

PGIA has not been certified by the Director of Civil Aviation as meeting all of the ICAO Standards and Recommended 

Practices. 




126. Figure 2-11 show the historic international and domestic movements at PGIA. Domestic 

aircraft movements now represent more than 40% of all movements. Section 3.6.1 of this 

report provides more detailed description of existing and projected demand at PGIA. 

Figure 2-11: PGIA International and Domestic Aircraft Movements 2006-2016 

45162 

43754 

27343 26934 27135 

24623 

25238 

18423 18974 19094 18022 18373 18863 

15999 

32274 32143 31399 

29329 

22089 22993 22219 

23467 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

INTERNATIONAL 

DOMESTIC 

2.8.1.2. Domestic Aerodromes 

127. As noted before, there are 14 prescribed aerodromes. BAA provides crash-fire-rescue 

services as well as refuelling. Below is a description of the main aerodromes. 

Table 2-9: 

Prescribed Domestic Airports 

Prescribed Airport 

Location 

Runway 

Dimensions 

(feet) 

Belize City Municipal Airport Belize City, Belize District 1800 x 30 

John Greif Airport San Pedro, Belize District 3500 x 60 

Caye Caulker Airstrip Caye Caulker, Belize District 2825 x 40 

Corozal Airstrip Ranchito, Corozal District 2100 x 30 

Sarteneja Airstrip Sarteneja, Corozal District 2500 x 35 

H.E. Alfredo Martinez Airstrip Orange Walk District 2300 x 30 

Hector Silva Airstrip Belmopan, Cayo District 3250 x 60 

Mathew Spain Airstrip Central Farm, Cayo District 2200 x 25 

Privacion Airstrip MoUntain Pine Ridge, Cayo District 3000 x 60 

Pelican Airstrip Dangriga, Stann Creek District 2100 x 30 

Melinda-Costal Road Airstrip Melinda, Stann Creek District 2080 x 25 

Placencia Airstrip Placencia, Stann Creek District 2135 x 25 

Punta Gorda Airstrip Punta Gorda, Toledo 2355 x 25 




Sir Barry Bowen (Belize City Municipal Airport) 

128. The Sir Barry Bowen Airport underwent a major upgrade, which was completed in 2016, 

with an extension to the runway to 1,800 meters (5,905 feet) and the addition of a taxiway 

and runway lighting. From the perspective of the airside facilities, the airport is ICAO 

compliant and can accommodate growth for the foreseeable future. 

129. The airport is bordered along the length of the runway by passenger and cargo facilities 

built and owned by the two domestic airlines. Consequently, there are several separate 

access points onto the airside; for security reasons, these should be reduced to a single 

access point for passengers, and a single access point for cargo. The optimum solution 

would be to develop common-use passenger and cargo terminal buildings; however, this 

solution is likely to meet resistance from the airlines. 

John Grief II Airport 

130. The John Grief II Airport on San Pedro is the busiest of the regional aerodromes. The 

airport operates at a national ICAO Code 2B 7 with a runway of 1,000 meters (3,281 feet) 

in length and 18 meters (59 feet) in width. The minimum runway width requirement for 

this aerodrome is 23 meters (75 feet). The airport has no parallel taxiway and a very small 

apron, which severely restricts aircraft movement on the ground. With buildings on three 

(3) sides of the manoeuvring areas and a nearby office building that breaches the 

transitional space, the John Grief II Airport has essentially been outgrown. The airport 

cannot accommodate larger aircraft, or even small jets because of the physical 

constraints, and it is expected that traffic growth will be stalled within two (2) years. In the 

Short-term Action Plan, recommendation has been made for the relocation of this airport. 

131. A proposal has been made to develop a new airport on Ambergris Caye as an international 

airport. This cannot be done before restrictions imposed by the concession agreement 

between BAA and the Belize Airport Concession Company (operator of PGIA) are 

removed. A land-use plan and masterplan for a domestic facility should nevertheless 

make provision for future expansion. However, it is important to note that any future 

development must consider the “design aircraft” i.e. the largest aircraft intended to land 

and take-off at the airport to properly design the future runways, taxiways and parking 

apron 8 . Further consideration must also be given to whether the airport is to be used for 

jet aircraft, as provision must be made for the protection from jet blast of propeller aircraft 

(and buildings, equipment and personnel). 

132. The John Grief II airport has excellent passenger facilities and offices built and owned by 

the two major domestic airlines. 

Caye Caulker 

133. The facilities at Caye Caulker do not meet ICAO requirements. The runway with a “chip 

and seal” surface is badly eroded and shows subsidence in some sections of the 

substrate. The BAA has plans to undertake a full repair and upgrading of the runway with 

a hot-mix asphalt surface. The project includes shoring up the shoulders which are subject 

to flooding. BAA also intends to replace the terminal building which is in a very poor state 

of repair. Once the upgrading work is completed the Caye Caulker aerodrome should 

have the capacity to meet demand for the foreseeable future. 

7 

All airports are categorised according to the ICAO Standards which are based on the minimum runway length and 

width required for the largest aircraft for which the aerodrome is designed. A further code is also given, denoting the 

level of Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting equipment based on the aerodrome. 

8 

ICAO Annex 14, and ICAO Doc 9157 Aerodrome Design Manual 




Placencia 

134. Placencia has a runway of 651 meters (2,136 feet) long, sufficient to accommodate the 

present domestic aircraft; however, the runway width at 7.6 meters (25 feet) is well below 

the 18 meters (59 feet) required to meet the ICAO Standards and Recommended 

Practices. The runway is badly eroded, but more importantly, there are no turning aprons 

nor proper runway thresholds and the main road passes immediately across one end of 

the runway. Barriers are lowered to halt road traffic before aircraft landing and take-off, 

but this is not an ideal situation. Because of the lower traffic levels and the lack of adjacent 

development, the situation is not as serious as the situation at San Pedro, consideration 

should be given to relocating the Placencia aerodrome within the next 10 years. 

135. The aerodrome lacks proper perimeter fencing, leaving it open to the hazards of wildlife 

and unauthorised persons. In addition, the terminal buildings are small and inadequate 

for the present level of passenger traffic. 

Dangriga 

136. The airstrip at Dangriga is located close to Pelican Beach and also known as the Pelican 

Beach Airstrip. The runway is 638 meters (2,093 feet) long, but only 9 meters (30 feet) 

wide and so does not meet the minimum requirement for ICAO code 1, which calls for an 

18-meter-wide (59 feet) runway. However, the airstrip has a good hot-mix asphalt surface 

with paved shoulders, an improvement on other airfields. Unfortunately, this airstrip also 

lacks turn pads, causing erosion to the pavement. 

137. As with other aerodromes, the two domestic carriers have their own terminal buildings, 

which are in a reasonable state of repair. 

138. Unlike John Grief II and Placencia, passengers travelling to and from the Dangriga 

aerodrome are mostly local residents. Passenger numbers have been robust; this may 

change if travel by road to Belize City were to be improved. 

139. The Dangriga site does offer the possibility of further airside improvement (turn pads) and 

this should be undertaken as soon as possible, and perimeter fencing needs to be 

installed. A house was observed across the channel and quite close to the runway, which 

would seem to obstruct the transitional space. Measures should be taken to prevent 

further construction so close to the aerodrome. 

140. Notwithstanding the recommended improvements, the facilities at Dangriga should serve 

the community for a further 10 years or more. 

Corozal 

141. The Corozal airstrip has a 580-meter-long runway plus a 120-meter (394 feet) displaced 

threshold which provides for aircraft taxiing. This runway benefits from turn pads and 

complies with ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices. Unfortunately, the two 

airline passenger terminal buildings are built too close to the runway and therefore infringe 

upon the obstacle limitation surface. 

142. Traffic at Corozal, compared to the other BAA aerodromes is very low, but nevertheless 

is increasing, and consideration may have to be given at some point in the future to 

addressing the breaches caused by the terminal buildings. 




Orange Walk 

143. Orange Walk is essentially an airstrip with no terminal buildings, although having regular, 

but low, service. The runway has a hot-mix asphalt surface and at a length of 700 meters 

(2,297 feet) and width of 18 meters (59 feet) meets ICAO requirements. The Belize Power 

Company line crosses the transitional space and needs to be relocated. Other 

improvements include security fencing and an apron for aircraft parking. Once these 

improvements are made, the airstrip could be used on a more regular basis. 

Secondary Airstrips 

144. In addition to the aerodromes described above, BAA owns and operates a further 6 

airstrips (e.g. Belmopan). None of these airstrips has terminal buildings or runways that 

meet the minimum safety standards, and the pavements are chip and seal and in poor 

condition. However, they are used for some passenger operations (mainly private) as well 

as for medical and other emergencies. 

145. Table 2-10 below show the aircraft landings at the busiest aerodromes for the period 

2007-2016. 

Table 2-10: Landing Movements at Selected Aerodromes, 2007-2016 

Sir Barry Bowen Caye Caulker Placencia Dangriga John Grieff II 

2007 16,515 3,715 6,375 5,486 17,123 

2008 18,037 4,164 7,070 6,480 19,577 

2009 16,100 3,438 6,289 5,372 16,889 

2010 15,422 3,609 6,057 5,683 17,400 

2011 16,256 3,897 6,375 5,490 18,844 

2012 16,311 3,874 6,643 5,941 19,510 

2013 15,683 3,924 6,317 5,695 19,515 

2014 16,065 3,917 6,669 5,827 20,275 

2015 16,449 4,183 6,200 5,916 20,220 

2016 16,688 4,460 6,620 6,438 20,882 

146. Table 2-11 shows domestic passenger statistics for the period March – July 2017 by 

airline. Passenger statistics were not previously collected by BAA. 

Month 

Table 2-11: Domestic Air Traffic March-July 2017 

Tropic Air 

Maya Island 

Air 

Caribee Air 

Services 

Javier's 

Flying 

Services 

Operators 

Total Pax 

March 33,095 17,290 145 43 50,573 

April 29,630 16,272 131 40 46,073 

May 24,578 13,490 89 16 38,173 

June 25,179 13,220 37 20 38,456 

July 26,110 15,295 - 37 41,442 

Total Pax 138,592 75,567 402 156 214,717 

147. Section 3.6.2 of this report provides more detailed description of existing and project 

demand at regional aerodromes. 




Major Airports and Aviation Problems and Issues 

148. The main problems identified by the Consultant can be synthetized under the following 

topics: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Safety and security in regional aerodromes. The regional aerodromes require 

proper fencing, scanner control, and separation of arrival and departure passenger 

flows. 

Improvements needed at regional aerodromes. Infrastructure improvements are 

needed in, at least, three regional aerodromes: San Pedro airport is surrounded by 

urban development, some of recent construction and has limited space for expansion 

to accommodate bigger aircrafts; the runway at Caye Caulker is in need of urgent 

repair, it is noticeably uneven and the surface has degraded to the point where it is 

comprised of loose gravel in many places - considerable capital investment is 

necessary at Caye Caulker; Placiencia airport runway is badly eroded and there are 

no turning aprons or proper runway thresholds. 

BACC Concession. There have been calls to designate a second aerodrome as an 

international airport, with Customs and Immigration and other required facilities. 

Under the Concession Agreement with BACC, that company has first option to operate 

any new international airport. A decision to grant a licence permitting international 

operations to a second airport under these conditions or reach an agreement that 

allows a second airport operator needs to be reached. Alternatively, PGIA can be 

expanded to accommodate the projected growth in aircraft and passenger numbers. 

Air space congestion linked to airport capacity limitations. According to BDCA, 

the air traffic is increasing much faster than their capacity to train new air controllers. 

Part of the traffic increase consists of small carriers, which further complicate the task 

of control. The problem is complex with a mix of infrastructural and operational issues: 

- Lack of enough traffic controllers and very slow training pace. 

- Operating during only 12 hours a day (6am to 6pm). 

- PGIA runway being operated inefficiently due to the lack of additional taxiways. 

- Shifting to larger aircraft for the domestic flights between Belize City and San 

Pedro and Placencia might reduce air congestion but would require the relocation 

of both airports, as well as, sufficient financial capacity of local carriers. 

2.9 TRAFFIC POLICY 

Vehicle and Driver Licensing and Registration 

2.9.1.1. Institutional Setup 

149. MOT, through the Department of Transport, is assigned the mission of overseeing the 

statutory instrument for motor vehicle and road traffic regulations 9 . 

150. Technically, the main activities of the Department include: registration of motor vehicles; 

licensing of motor vehicles; issuing driving licenses, monitoring driving offences, 

controlling legal proceedings, suspension, cancellation and endorsement of driving 

9 

Belize, Motor Vehicles and Road Traffic Act Chapter 230, Revised Edition 2011. 




licenses; and controlling managing operations of bus terminals; issuing public transport 

operation permits. However, the capacities of the DOT are very limited as described 

below. 

2.9.1.2. Problems and Constraints 

151. The most urgent problem is the lack of unified, comprehensive national database on 

vehicle registration and driving/vehicle operating licensing. In spite of its small population, 

vehicle and driving registration are highly fragmented. The DOT registers vehicle and 

driving licenses only in rural areas, while each city registers vehicles and licenses within 

its own jurisdiction. 

152. There is no coordination and no common "clearing house". Furthermore, the DOT lacks 

sufficient up-to-date computerized operation, and much of the data is fragmented, 

assembled manually only. Consequently, there are no reliable data on vehicle fleet and 

motorization in Belize and no mechanism to monitor and enforce vehicle and driver 

registration and operation. Due to this problem, the Consultant could not estimate fleet 

size and motorization – an essential input to the Demand Model. 

153. This issue is one of the most significant problems facing the transport sector in Belize in 

the short-run and requires immediate action: To create ASAP a single national 

computerized registry system at the DOT and remove this power from cities and other 

local authorities. 

Vehicle Ownership 

154. Lack of Data. As a corollary to the DOT problem mentioned above, the only reliable data 

on vehicle fleet and motorization are available to the year 2008 (published time-series, 

issued by the SIB, for the period 2000-2007, and 2008 partial). However, not all other 

reports published since then include comprehensive national data on licensed or 

registered vehicles. 

155. Data 2008 - The latest available reliable data for Belize as of 2008 indicates that Belize 

had approximately 57,000 registered vehicles of which, using SIB classification of 

vehicles, about 48,000 (83%) were private (car, pick up, cycle, van, and other), 3,600 (7%) 

public (passenger omnibus and taxi), and 4,600 (10%) goods vehicles (pick up, tandem, 

tractor, dump, trailer, takes, vans). 

2.10 PUBLIC TRANSPORT 

Characteristics 

156. Fleet Size – No reliable data is available on fleet size owing to lack of national registry 

system at the DOT (discussed above). 

157. Ownership - Most public bus companies in Belize are very small, operating by an owneroperator 

or a family-type operation. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of the companies operate 

only one bus, forty-seven percent (47%) operate with two (2) to five (5) buses. Companies 

operating ten (10) buses or more account for only four percent (4%) of the companies. 

158. Vehicles - Most of the public transport buses in Belize are old school buses imported from 

the USA with an average age of 25 years and about 80% are diesel. The bus service is 

very basic: seating is not very comfortable, air-conditioning is not available, and they lack 

facilities to handle luggage. The old buses are relatively cheap; however, this results in 

frequent failures, high maintenance costs, high emissions and high consumption of fuel. 




159. Demand – 42,500 inter-urban trips are realized by public transport every working day, 

representing a market share of 38% of the interurban trips 10 ; the average travel expense 

is 12 BZD daily per public transport users for (50 km distance for an average single trip, 

100 km length trip a day). 70% of the trips realized in public transport are for compulsory 

reasons (49% works, 21% for school), and with a high frequency (almost every day in the 

same proportion). Chapter 3 of this report includes more detailed description of the public 

transport existing demand and modal split (public and private vehicles) characteristics 

(Section 3.3) and public transport demand forecasts (Section 3.7). 

160. Adjustment of demand /supply - Public bus routes are assigned by the DOT, 

supposedly according to estimated demand; however, no reliable public and/or private 

data are available on (revealed) demand for public transport – number of passengers 

using public transport, route, time of day, trip purpose, etc. Anecdotal information indicates 

that in most cases bus occupancy reaches only 60% to 70% even during peak hours and, 

on some routes, it falls to only 25% to 35% off-peak. 

Main Problems and Issues 

161. The main problems identified by the Consultant can be synthetized under the following 

topics: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Limited GOB authority, control and technical promotion. 

No general requirement for bus operating permits more than a scheduled time and a 

fare. 

Few, formally constituted public transport companies. 

Absence of professional operations, with minimum standard operating procedures and 


Permit duration (2 years) that does not provide stability to invest in a new fleet. 

Oversupply of vehicles. 

No operational adjustment between supply and demand. 

Old vehicles that are in poor a state. 

Inadequate maintenance and frequent road failure of public buses. 

No reliable data on fleet size and composition. 

No data on bus operation (number of passengers using public transport, by route, time 

of day, trip purpose, etc.). 

No required training for bus operators (drivers). 

Lack of modern bus terminals and on-road, safe bus stops. 

Limited off-street parking facilities for public buses. 

No integrated services (physical and fare) between inter-urban and peri-urban / rural 

services. 

Lack of premium service (for tourists and higher income Belizeans) 

Long-term trend of loss of passengers (information based on public transport 

companies and declaration and survey to public transport users). 

12% of car users indicate that they may shift from cars to public transport if public 

transport services are improved; 9% of public transport users reveal that they are 

planning to buy a car in the next 3 years and stop using the public transport services. 

Vicious circle of poor service, loss of passengers, less income, less capacity of 

investment, no operational adjustment between supply and demand, high cost of 

10 

64,500 interurban trips are realized by cars (58%), 2,100 by water taxis (2% of total) and 2,400 are 

realized by plane (2%). For more detail on existing transport demand, see Section 3.3.1. 




operation and maintenance due to the obsolescence of the fleet, resulting in poorer 

service. Thus, there is a necessity of an overall restructuring of the public transport 

sector. 

2.11 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, VULNERABILITY AND 

RESILIENCE 

162. The baseline assessment focuses on the present conditions within the (1) road corridor 

and adjacent areas of influence of the route corridors, as well as (2) airports and (3) 

seaports and their adjacent areas of influence. This study carried out an extensive 

investigation of the present condition of the ecosystems and wildlife resources along the 

transportation corridors focusing on their importance to conservation objectives while 

mapping and elucidating their importance over the larger landscape. Figure 2-12 shows 

the ecosystems map of Belize (produced by the “Central America Ecosystems Mapping 

Project for Central America), whilst Figure 2-13 shows a map of Belize’s protected areas 

in relation to its transport network. The Base Line Analysis Report, 05 April 2017, details 

these analyses. 

163. Figure 2-13 shows a map of Belize’s protected areas in relation to its transport 

network.The Base Line Analysis Report, 05 April 2017, details theses analyses. 

164. After conducting the initial baseline condition analysis, it was considered that the important 

aspect of Belize´s environmental vulnerability and resilience to climate change was not 

fully analysed. Therefore, the Consultant conducted a specific baseline condition analysis 

on Belize´s vulnerability, adaptability and resilience to climate change. This analysis is 

reproduced in its entirety in Annex 2, and it is summarized in the following paragraphs. 

165. Belize´s greenhouse gas emissions are insignificant compared to other developing 

countries. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Framework 

Convention of Climate Change proposed a 20% reduction in fuel use by 2030 and energy 

efficiency on the sector through the implementation of policies and investments. However, 

due to its physical location, one of the most active hurricane and tropical storms area in 

the world, Belize will be impacted severely by climate change. Just in 2000 and 2001, 

when the country was hit by two hurricanes, the damage due to heavy rain and flooding, 

was 45% and 25% of the GDP, respectively (World Bank, 2010). 

166. Together with its location, its long, low-lying mainland coastline and its more than 1,000 

small islands and islets, make Belize especially vulnerable to the effects of a changing 

climate, like more intense and frequent tropical storms, hurricanes, rising sea levels and 

flooding (Singh, Obretin, & Savoie, 2014), which will eventually have severe impacts on 

its transport infrastructure. Because of the above, Belize has been ranked the 21 st country 

more at risk due to climate change for the Latin America and the Caribbean Region and 

6 th globally in average losses per unit of GDP, based on the Germanwatch Global Climate 

Risk Index, which analyses the quantified impacts of extreme weather events, both in 

terms of fatalities as well as economic losses that occurred (Germanwatch, 2014). 

167. Belize´s vulnerability will increase with the rise in sea level temperatures that the world is 

currently witnessing, as has been mentioned on the Fifth Assessment Report of the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which stresses that the risk 

associated with extreme weather events will only increase with rising temperatures, being 

generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities (IPCC, 2014). 




Figure 2-12: Updated National Ecosystems Map of Belize 

Source: Land and Survey Department 




Figure 2-13: Protected Areas Map of Belize 

Source: Land and Survey Department 




168. The report “Prioritizing Climate Resilient Transport Investments in a Data-Scarce 

Environment” prepared by the World Bank, identifies Belize’s flood prone areas and ranks 

the road network by level of criticality 11 . Figure 2-14 shows separately vulnerability and 

criticality assessments. 

169. The World Bank reports have also superimposed both maps to identify the most 

vulnerable and critical areas of the transport network (see Figure 2-15). It serves to 

identify not only infrastructure in risky areas, but also vulnerable infrastructure that in case 

of disruption would create important negative impacts (economic or social) to the country. 

West of Belmopan, south of Independence, the Belize City area and Corozal area are 

identified as the most sensitive areas. 

170. The risk associated with and the identified impacts due to climate change to the country, 

specifically to the transport sector, like the possible damage to the transport infrastructure 

in the coastal areas (ports and airports) and the loss of road infrastructure due to sea level 

rise and flooding, are major impediments to the efforts being made by the government to 

promote sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, climate adaptation and 

resilience measures should be contemplated as a fundamental element of the climate and 

investment policies of the country. 

171. In this regard, over the last years, the Government of Belize (GOB), through its different 

ministries and institutions, has developed several policies to respond to pressing 

environmental issues and to mainstream climate change into its national development 

processes and mechanisms. 

172. However, work needs to be done in the regulatory framework of Belize, since apart from 

the Environmental Protection Regulation of 2011, drafted under the Environmental 

Protection Act, that basically addresses environmental issues, there is no specific climate 

change legislation in Belize. Advantage should be taken of the existing Act, since, by only 

including key elements regarding climate change, and including requirement to conduct 

vulnerability assessment during the transport network and project planning process, it can 

become a tool that can help decision makers to include mitigation and resilience as part 

of the existing or future projects. The need to increase resilience in the face of climate 

change require actions in the near term that ensure that the necessary capacities, 

infrastructure and systems are in place over the longer term. 

173. Maintenance of infrastructure becomes a powerful safeguard strategy in making 

infrastructure more resilient to climate change, since postponing or neglecting 

maintenance for any type of transport infrastructure (roads, ports or runways) will increase 

the likelihood of disruption and, in the longer term, generate greater economic cost for the 

country. In the case of road infrastructure, maps from the NCRIP should be used to help 

identify when and where the maintenance is needed in the primary and secondary roads 

network. 

11 

The term criticality can have different meanings. In some simplified studies it can describe a road with no alternatives. 

In the study used as source for the images, criticality was a complex index including the existence of alternatives but 

also the relevance of that road for accessing to important equipment (as hospitals) or the strategic infrastructure (access 

to ports or airports). 




Figure 2-14: Left: vulnerability to floods; right: criticality of the road network 

Source: World Bank. Prioritizing Climate Resilient Transport Investments in a Data-Scarce Environment 




Figure 2-15: Priority Areas for Flood Vulnerability Reduction Investments under the 

Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project 

Source: World Bank. Prioritizing Climate Resilient Transport Investments in a Data-Scarce Environment 




CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSPORT 

DEMAND 


174. This chapter presents the results of the travel demand forecasts for Belize. The chapter 

includes a description of the base year (2017) demand estimates and medium (2025) and 

long-term (2035) demand forecasts for each of the transport subsystems, including: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Road demand forecasts 

Tourism passenger forecasts 

Ports forecasts 

Aviation forecasts 

Water taxi and public transport forecast 

Consolidated forecasts 

175. The demand model prepared for the CNMTP and used in estimating current and future 

transport demand is defined as a variation of the classical four-stage model. Annex 3 

contains a detailed description of the demand forecast methodology, hypotheses, and 

results. 

3.2 ROAD DEMAND FORECASTS 

Base year (2017) Conditions 

176. The current road transport demand was estimated based on the origin-destination (OD) 

patterns, as derived from the traffic counts and surveys, assigned to the road network 

based on the physical characteristics of the roads and generalized costs of the road users’ 

(see Annex 3 for more detailed description of the methodology). 

177. A summary of the resulting vehicle trips (cars, trucks) and public transport passengers 

and their road assignments in 2017 are shown in Section 2.6.2.3 of this report (see Table 

2-4). For private vehicles and public transport, the Ladyville-Belize City is the most 

important O-D pair and, thus, the road connecting these two areas has the highest private 

vehicle traffic and public transport passengers. 

178. For freight cargo moved in semi-trailers, the main O-D pairs are the Ladyville-Belize City 

and the Hattieville/Gracie Rock-Belize City pairs (with 8% of the total of each); for trailers, 

the main O-D trips take place within Orange Walk District (16% of all trailer trips); and for 

full trailers, the main OD trips also take place within Orange District (Yo Creek/San 

Lorenzo-Shipyard with 17% of the total and San Estevan-Shipyard with 13% of the total 

full trailer trips). 




Forecasts: Medium (2025) and Long (2035) Term 

179. The main driving forces behind the transport demand forecasts, including potential modal 

shift, are population, GDP, household income and income per capita, and vehicle 

ownership estimates, geographically adjusted based on the agricultural, agroindustry and 

tourism potential of different zones of the country. In addition to car ownership, modal 

shift forecasts also consider improvements in public transport. Annex 3 provides more 

detailed description of the socio-economic and transport demand forecasting methodology 

and results. 

180. The following Table 3-1 and Table 3-2 summarize the results of the average daily road 

private vehicles and public transport passengers for the forecast years 2025 and 2035. 

Table 3-1: 

Summary of Daily Average Trips/Passengers by Vehicle Group and Travel 

Purpose in 2025 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trip 

Purpose 

Trips 

Passengers 


Passengers 

Private Road 

Vehicle 

Job 20.986 49.785 61,9% 

Recreation 4.872 9.844 65,9% 

Other 10.363 22.078 66,5% 

Studies 1.189 2.200 15,6% 

Total 37.410 83.907 58,8% 


Vehicle 

Group 

Trip 

Purpose 

Passengers 


Passengers 

Table 3-2: 

Public 

Transport 

Job 30.645 38,1% 


Other 11.138 33,5% 

Studies 11.913 84,4% 

Total 58.793 41,2% 


Summary of Daily Average Trips/Passengers by Vehicle Group and Travel 

Purpose in 2035 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trip 

Purpose 

Trips 

Passengers 


Passengers 

Private Road 

Vehicle 

Job 27.439 65.081 61,9% 

Recreation 7.787 15.717 65,2% 

Other 12.411 26.441 66,5% 

Studies 1.438 2.646 15,4% 

Total 49.075 109.885 59,0% 


Vehicle 

Group 

Trip 

Purpose 

Passengers 


Passengers 

Public 

Transport 

Job 40.122 38,1% 


Other 13.331 33,5% 

Studies 14.549 84,6% 

Total 76.390 41,0% 





181. The following Table 3-3 and Table 3-4 summarize the average daily truck trips and 

transported tons forecasts for 2025 and 2035. 

Table 3-3: Summary of Daily Average Trips/Trucks by Category of Truck in 2025 


Table 3-4: Summary of Daily Average Trips/Trucks by Category of Truck in 2035 


3.2.2.1. Medium and long-term road assignment on base case road network and level of 

service (congestion) 

182. Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2 show light vehicles (cars) and freight vehicles (semi-trailers, 

trailers and full trailers)) road assignment for the base year (2017), medium-term (2025) 

and long-term (2035) over the base case road network (existing roads and short-term 

committed projects). 

183. As shown in the Figure 3-1, the major volumes of light vehicles concentrate on the George 

Price Highway between Belize City and the border with Guatemala, and on the Philip SW 

Goldson Highway between Belize City and the Airport and Ladyville. The lowest volume 

is on the Southern Highway, between Independence and the intersection with Jalacte 

Road. 

184. On the other hand, the highest volume of freight vehicles (see Figure 3-2) is on the Philip 

SW Goldson Highway between Belize City and the border with Mexico, and on the George 

Price Highway, from Belize City to Belmopan and San Ignacio, with lower volumes 

between San Ignacio and the Guatemala border. The high volumes of freight trucks on 

the Coastal Road is also highlighted, reflecting the additional agricultural products (mainly 

from Santander Group) being moved for exportation through the Port of Big Creek. 

185. Figure 3-3 shows the resulting level of congestion (level A - no congestion, level E - 

heavily congested) from the road assignments shown in the previous figures. It is noted 

that, without improvements (beyond the short-term improvements), the George Price 

Highway and Southern Highway will begin to be congested in the medium-term and to be 

congested (levels C and D) in the long-term. It is also noted that the Belize-Ladyville 

section will also be congested in the long-term, even with the short-term improvements 

already underway. 




Figure 3-1: 

Primary Highway (Improved Base Case) Traffic Assignment of Light (Car) Vehicles 




Figure 3-2: 

Primary Highway (Improved Base Case) Traffic Assignment of Freight (Trucks all kind) Vehicles 

Belize Improved Base- 2035 – Freight Network Assignment 

1 

9 

5 

6 

3 

7 

8 

4 

ID Road 

Project (Main) 




Figure 3-3: 

Primary Highway (Improved Base Case) Forecasted Level of Service (Congestion) 




3.3 TOURISM PASSENGER FORECASTS 

Tourism Forecast – National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP) 

In 2011, the Government of Belize developed the NSTMP, which presents a long-term strategic 

vision of the tourism sector. The NSTMP considers the boosters of the country's tourism 

development to be the following: 

1. Strengthen the power of attraction of cruise visitors. 

2. Turn cruise visitors into overnight tourists. 

3. Expand the Average Length of Stay (ALOS) of overnight visitors (from 8.3 days in 

2008 up to 10.6 in 2030). 

4. Maintain and strengthen the internal market (local visitors). 

5. Attract more European and Mexican visitors and decrease dependence of the 

American market. 

186. The NSTMP proposes specific actions to develop the tourism potential of the seven 

touristic regions (Figure 3-4) according to their current assets and under a framework of 

respect to natural resources. 

Figure 3-4: 

Tourism Destination Groupings (NSTMP) 

Source: NSTMP, 2011 




187. The growth hypotheses of the NSTMP pose a change in the inner dynamic of the country 

i.e. some switches in the tourists’ distribution are expected. Table 3-5 shows the 2008 and 

the NSTPM forecasted distribution of overnight visitors per destination 12 . 

Table 3-5: 

Tourism Overnight Distribution per Destination 

Region 2008 2030 

Belize Reef 3% 2% 

Northern Belize 10% 11% 

South Eastern Coast Belize 14% 30% 

Central Coast Belize 15% 15% 

Northern Islands 32% 21% 

Southern Belize 2% 4% 

Western Belize 24% 17% 

National 100% 100% 


188. The approach in Central Coast Belize is to focus on urban renovation of the Central 

Historic District neighbourhood and foster tourism attractors in the city such as the 

Museum of Belize, the open-air market, and the Fort George Street Village. Expectations 

are to maintain the current percentage of visitors (15% of total visitors in the country). 

189. Northern Belize is considered to increase slightly its power of attraction (from 10% in 2008 

to 11% in 2030) thanks to a moderate growth in Orange Walk and Corozal whose role is 

to be a base camp area to visit surrounding archaeological sites (Lamanai and Cerro 

Maya, for instance). Moreover, based on the NSTPM, the free-trade zone at the northern 

border has the potential to be an important tourist attractor for that region. However, the 

free zone has experienced a decline in business activity due to various factors including 

loss of value of the Mexican peso, loss of correspondent banking relationships for clearing 

foreign currency transactions and changing commercial tastes of the target market. As of 

March 2018, an IDB technical assistance project is underway to assess the possibilities 

of repurposing the Corozal Free Zone 13 . 

190. The greater tourism growth is estimated in the South-Eastern Coast (14% of total visitors 

in 2008 up to 30% in 2030) as most of the new future developments are expected in this 

area, specifically around existing settlements in the coastline close to the airport and in 

the north from Riversdale. 

191. For 2030, Southern Belize would double its power of attraction, capturing 4% of the total 

number of visitors in the country. The objectives for this zone are (i) to promote nautical 

tourism in Punta Gorda and the coastline and (ii) create new tourism attractions around 

the agriculture-tourism and rural tourism using the cacao plantations. 

192. On the other hand, Western Belize (called the “Adventure Capital of Belize") would lose 

relative importance in attracting tourists. This implies that the number of tourists will be 

higher, but the percentage of attraction at the national level would be smaller (24% in 2008 

to 17% in 2030). A moderate tourism growth is defined in Benque Viejo and San Ignacio 

based on the attractiveness of the Chiquibul Caves. 

193. The NSTMP propounds to release the pressure in the Northern Islands (San Pedro and 

Caye Caulker) which would no longer be the main destination in the country, but the 

12 

Up to 2015, no changes in the overnight distribution have been identified. The scheme for 2008 presented in the 

NSTMP has mainly remained the same. 

13 

See: https://www.iadb.org/en/project/BL-T1087. 




second (behind the southeastern coast). The idea is to constraint the development and 

consolidate and improve the current infrastructure. 

194. Finally, for the Belize Reef, priority is given to the preservation of all marine habitats, the 

promotion of one-day visits and the issuing of development permits that only allow 

improvements and small enlargements of existing facilities. The tourist percentage of 

attraction in 2030 is expected to decrease 1% and reach 2% in 2030. 

195. Based on these growth and switch expectations 14 , the NSTMP estimates the future 

number of overnight and cruise visitors 15 . Overnight tourists are expected to grow by 3.8% 

every year, whereas for cruises the calculated annual growth rate is 3.7%. 

Overnight Visitors 

196. When comparing the overnight visitors forecast of the NSTMP versus the real registered 

visitors (Belize Travel and Tourism Statistics Digest 2015 and BTB), the difference for 

2009 is 9%. The NSTMP calculated a growth of 3.8% 16 , and in fact, a decrease of 5.2% 

was registered. Nevertheless, this difference is later compensated since the real 

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for 2008-2016 is 5.8% (2% higher than the 3.8% 

forecasted). Therefore, the number of visitors estimated in the NSTMP for 2016 is smaller 

than the official records. 

197. For the purposes of the CNTMP, an adjusted series was estimated using the registered 

number of overnight visitors up to 2016 and adding the growth rate originally estimated in 

the NSTMP, as shown in the table below. 

Year 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Table 3-6: 

Growth Rate 

Overnight Tourists Forecast (NSTMP) 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Arrivals 2 

Growth Rate 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

2008 245,000 245,007 245,007 

2009 254,298 3.8% 232,249 -5.2% 232,249 -5.2% 

2010 263,950 3.8% 241,919 4.2% 241,919 4.2% 

2011 273,968 3.8% 250,263 3.4% 250,263 3.4% 

2012 284,365 3.8% 277,135 10.7% 277,135 10.7% 

2013 295,158 3.8% 294,177 6.1% 294,177 6.1% 

2014 306,360 3.8% 321,220 9.2% 321,220 9.2% 

2015 317,987 3.8% 341,161 6.2% 341,161 6.2% 

2016 330,056 3.8% 385,583 13.0% 385,583 13.0% 

2017 342,582 3.8% - - 400,217 3.8% 

2018 355,584 3.8% - - 415,406 3.8% 

2019 369,080 3.8% - - 431,172 3.8% 

2020 383,088 3.8% - - 447,537 3.8% 

2021 397,627 3.8% - - 464,522 3.8% 

2022 412,718 3.8% - - 482,152 3.8% 

2023 428,382 3.8% - - 500,451 3.8% 

2024 444,640 3.8% - - 519,445 3.8% 

2025 461,516 3.8% - - 539,159 3.8% 

2026 479,032 3.8% - - 559,622 3.8% 

2027 497,212 3.8% - - 580,861 3.8% 

2028 516,083 3.8% - - 602,906 3.8% 

14 

The NSTMP forecasts visitors from 2009 up to 2030. The most up-to-date data was for 2008. 

15 

These figures correspond to the data presented in the NSTMP. They are therefore official estimates. 

16 

NSTMP presents mainly qualitative reasons for such a growth expectation. No explanation about the numerical 

procedure of estimation was found. 




Year 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Arrivals 2 

Growth Rate 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

2029 535,670 3.8% - - 625,788 3.8% 

2030 1 556,000 3.8% - - 649,539 3.8% 

2031 577,102 3.8% - - 674,191 3.8% 

2032 599,005 3.8% - - 699,778 3.8% 

2033 621,739 3.8% - - 726,337 3.8% 

2034 645,335 3.8% - - 753,904 3.8% 

2035 669,828 3.8% - - 782,517 3.8% 

CAGR 2008 

- 2016 

3.8% 5.8% 5.8% 

CAGR 2016 

- 2035 

3.8% - 3.8% 

1 Forecast from 2030 was estimated using the same linear growth rate presented in the NSTMP 

2 Belize Travel and Tourism Statistics Digest 2015 

Source: Egis–Transconsult, 2017 based on the NSTMP, 2011; the Belize Travel and Tourism Statistics Digest 2015; 

and BTB 2016 

198. In line with the adjusted series of the NSTMP, the forecasted number of overnight visitors 

for each region is the following. 

Table 3-7: 

Region 

Overnight Tourists Forecast per destination (NSTMP - adjusted) 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

2016 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 1 

ALOS 

2016 2 

Total 

Overnight 

2016 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

2035 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 3 

ALOS 

2035 4 

Total 

Overnight 

2035 

CAGR 

Total 

Overnight 

2016 - 

2035 

Belize Reef 11,567 

76,114 15,650 

165,737 4.2% 

Northern Belize 38,558 253,714 86,077 911,554 7.0% 

South Eastern Coast 

Belize 

53,982 355,199 234,755 2,486,055 10.8% 

Central Coast Belize 57,837 6.58 380,570 117,377 10.59 1,243,028 6.4% 

Northern Islands 123,387 811,884 164,328 1,740,239 4.1% 

Southern Belize 7,712 50,743 31,301 331,474 10.4% 

Western Belize 92,540 608,913 133,028 1,408,765 4.5% 

National 385,583 2,537,136 782,517 8,286,851 6.4% 

1 

The total number of overnight visitors corresponds to the official data presented in the Belize Travel and Tourism 

Statistics Digest. The distribution per destination is the same as the one presented in the NSTMP for 2008, as no 

updated information is available 

2 

Equal to ALOS 2015 based on official records 

3 

Distribution per destination 2047 equal to that estimated in the NSTMP for 2030 

4 

ALOS 2047 equal to that estimated in the NSTMP for 2030 

Source: Egis–Transconsult, 2017 

199. The south of the country is expected to have the greatest tourism growth (above 7% per 

year). The attraction of tourists in the northern region is calculated to increase 5.7% per 

year. The Central Coast would have a growth rate equal to the national level (5.4%) 

whereas the west, the northern islands and the Belize Reef would grow around 4% each 

year. 




Cruise Visitors 

200. The comparison of cruise visitors forecasted in the NSTMP and the official records 

reached similar conclusions to the overnight tourists. The NSTMP forecasted a linear 

growth rate of 3.7% up to 2030. Conversely, the official records show a CAGR of 5.2% 

between 2009 and 2016 17 . Hence, the forecast for 2016 in the NSTMP was below the real 

number of cruise visitors. 

201. Again, an adjusted series was calculated on the basis of the factual data up to 2016 and 

replicating the growth rate estimated in the NSTMP. As shown in the table below. 

Year 

Cruise 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Table 3-8: 

Growth Rate 

Cruise Tourists Forecast (NSTMP) 

Cruise 

Tourists 

Arrivals 2 

Growth Rate 

Adjusted 

Cruise 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

2009 705,000 - 705,219 0.0% 705,219 - 

2010 730,944 3.7% 764,628 8.4% 764,628 8.4% 

2011 757,843 3.7% 727,878 -4.8% 727,878 -4.8% 

2012 785,731 3.7% 640,734 -12.0% 640,734 -12.0% 

2013 814,646 3.7% 677,350 5.7% 677,350 5.7% 

2014 844,625 3.7% 968,131 42.9% 968,131 42.9% 

2015 875,707 3.7% 957,975 -1.0% 957,975 -1.0% 

2016 907,933 3.7% 1,005,394 4.9% 1,005,394 4.9% 

2017 941,345 3.7% - - 1,042,392 3.7% 

2018 975,987 3.7% - - 1,080,753 3.7% 

2019 1,011,903 3.7% - - 1,120,524 3.7% 

2020 1,049,141 3.7% - - 1,161,760 3.7% 

2021 1,087,750 3.7% - - 1,204,512 3.7% 

2022 1,127,779 3.7% - - 1,248,838 3.7% 

2023 1,169,281 3.7% - - 1,294,796 3.7% 

2024 1,212,311 3.7% - - 1,342,444 3.7% 

2025 1,256,924 3.7% - - 1,391,846 3.7% 

2026 1,303,179 3.7% - - 1,443,066 3.7% 

2027 1,351,136 3.7% - - 1,496,171 3.7% 

2028 1,400,857 3.7% - - 1,551,230 3.7% 

2029 1,452,409 3.7% - - 1,608,315 3.7% 

2030 1 1,505,857 3.7% - - 1,667,501 3.7% 

2031 1,561,273 3.7% - - 1,728,865 3.7% 

2032 1,618,728 3.7% - - 1,792,487 3.7% 

2033 1,678,297 3.7% - - 1,858,451 3.7% 

2034 1,740,058 3.7% - - 1,926,842 3.7% 

2035 1,804,093 3.7% - - 1,997,750 3.7% 

CAGR 2009 

- 2016 

3.7% 5.2% 5.2% 

CAGR 2016 

- 2035 

3.7% - 3.7% 


and BTB 2016 



17 

Important fluctuations in historical data should be noted. 




Conclusions 

202. It is undeniable that tourism is now one of the pillars of Belize´s development. Supporting 

this sector is, therefore, a logical sound decision. Its growth should not be left to inertia 

and previous dynamics. On the contrary, holistic and robust development strategies 

should be implemented. In this sense, the NSTMP sets out key principles for strengthening 

tourism in a responsible and sustainable way. 

203. The strong linkage between tourism, transport and development means improvement in 

the transportation system (infrastructure and operation) will boost the attractiveness of the 

country and in the long run contribute to the growth of the economy based on tourism 

services. 

3.4 PORTS FORECASTS 

204. The preparation of port forecasts was undertaken by studying the growth of the precedent 

years and considering the potential external commerce increases of the main export and 

import products. Particularly for exports, the data in the Technical Note IDB-TN-1236 

Comparative analysis of port operations in Belize- January 2017 has been useful. 

205. The main assumptions taken for this section are: 

n 

For imports: 

Containers have been forecasted using their elasticity to GDP. 

n Oil imports are assumed to grow with GDP with an elasticity factor equal to 1.1. 

n General cargo and cement for Big Creek as well as dry bulk, break-bulk and other 

non-containerized cargo for Belize City Port are assumed to grow with GDP (elasticity 

factor equal to 1). 

n For the Belize City Port, detailed statistics are not available; not even a distinction 

between imports and exports; the traffic reported by the port is very different to the 

one appearing in the customs statistics. Customs statistics for exports seem more 

reliable, but for imports, there are consistency problems between the data reported by 

both entities. Due to this, we preferred using the same assumptions for estimating 

exports and imports as done in the report of the IDB “Comparative analysis of port 

operations in Belize”. 

n It was assumed that oil products would continue to be imported by the Belize City Port; 

if the monopoly is ended, a part of this traffic will shift to Big Creek. 

n For the business as usual scenario, the potential increase of transshipment goods 

thanks to the reduction of the existing tax on those cargo was not considered. (Also, 

see the analysis of potential port hinterland expansion in Annex 4). 

n For the business as usual scenario, the impact of the opening of Jalacte border ports 

was not considered. 

For exports: 

n 

n 

The forecasted volumes and most of the assumptions for the sharing of the exports by 

port for the business as usual scenario have been taken from the IDB Report 

"Comparative analysis of port operation in Belize "; this report present an analysis by 

type of commodity. No investments have been considered here and the distribution 

between ports will change for each alternative scenario depending of the infrastructure 

projects proposed, especially for bulk. 

It is proposed that sugar export volumes are shared 50/50 in the long term by both 

ports considering that most of the volumes from Santander will go to Big Creek; this is 

an assumption for business as usual (do-minimum) scenario. 




Main export products and distribution by ports 

206. This section has used to analysis of commodities done in the IDB report “Comparative 

analysis of port operations in Belize” that was given to the Consultant as input at the 

beginning of the study. The main assumptions made are the following: 

n Sugar: for the period 2015-30 strong output growth due to two new mills, mainly due 

to the increase of production of Santander Group. From 2030 trend annual growth rate 

of 1.5% as yields improve and the agricultural frontier is extended. There are still 

uncertainties about the capacity of Santander Group to achieve a similar production 

to BSI. Due to this, a long-term production of more than 250 000 tons as proposed in 

the IDB report could be considered optimistic. 

n Molasses: Increases at the same rate as sugar. 

n Banana: for the period 2015-20 stabilization around 130 000 tons; from 2020 trend 

annual growth rate of 1.5%. 

n Citrus Products: for the period 2015-20 rebound from recent setbacks; from 2020, 

trend annual growth rate of 1.7%. 

n Crude Oil Products: Production ceases by 2025. 

n Corn and beans: Trend annual growth rate of 2.5%. 

207. Uncertainties exist for some of these products. In the next years, the agreement between 

EU and Belize that allows Beliz to export with low custom duties to Europe will finalise. 

This could have an impact on the Belizean exports as its products could become less 

competitive. 

Table 3-9: 

Key export products forecasts (all ports, in tons) 

2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Sugar 125 400 135 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 323 200 

Molasses 15 300 15 300 24 500 30 600 36 700 39 500 

Bananas 124 300 125 000 130 000 140 000 150 900 162 500 

Citrus 94 000 98 700 120 000 130 700 142 300 155 000 

Other products 25 000 25 500 28 200 31 800 35 900 40 600 

Oil 58 300 46 640 20 000 0 0 0 

Total key exports 442 300 446 140 522 700 583 100 665 800 720 800 

Source: Technical Note IDB-TN-1236 Comparative analysis of port 

operations in Belize - January 2017 

208. The following table presents the distribution of exports by ports for the business as usual 

scenario. No investment projects or new developments are considered at this stage. For 

sugar, production from BSI is assumed to continue using mostly barges. It is assumed 

that Santander Group will use Big Creek as its port of export of all its sugar production 

(SSC has signed an agreement with Port of Big Creek a ten-year agreement). This 

distribution assumes, as well, a balance between Port of Belize and Big Creek for citrus 

and other product exportation in the long term. 

209. These results are re-grouped with the import forecasts for each port in the two following 

sections. 




Table 3-10: 

Key export products: breakdown by ports (in tons) 

Year 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Share of exports: Belize City 

Sugar: 92% to 2016; diminishing 

to 50% by 2020. 

Molasses: 100% to 2016; 

diminishing to 50% by 2020. 

125 400 124 200 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 601 

15 300 15 300 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 770 

Bananas: 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Citrus: 90% to 2016, falling to 

50% by 2020. 

Other products: 96% to 2015, 

falling to 50% by 2035 

84 600 88 830 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 

24 000 22 950 22 560 22 260 21 540 20 300 

Oil: 0% 0 0 0 0 0 

Total Port of Belize City key 

exports 

Share of exports: Big Creek 

Sugar: 0% to 2015, increase in 

share to 50% by 2020. 

249 300 251 280 194 810 227 910 261 040 279 171 

0 10 800 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 600 

Molasses: same trend as sugar 0 0 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 750 

Bananas: 100% 124 300 125 000 130 000 140 000 150 900 162 500 

Citrus: 10%; rising to 50% by 

2020 


rising to 50% by 2050 

9 400 9 870 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 

1 000 2 550 5 640 9 540 14 360 20 300 

Oil: 100% 58 300 46 640 20 000 0 0 0 

Total Port of Big Creek key 

exports 

193 000 194 860 327 890 355 190 404 760 441 650 



Belize City Port forecasts 

210. As the distribution of exports has already been presented, this section will detail the 

methodology used for container and oil products traffic and will include the consolidated 

forecasts for Belize City Port. 

211. It is important to presume that there are inconsistencies between the data provided by BP 

Ltd and the customs data on tons, the values being quite different. Moreover, the data 

provided for the Port of Belize City was not disaggregated enough, and the Consultant 

had to make strong assumptions, in particular to container traffic, that, as we mention in 

the following section, could be adapted if more precise data is received. 

3.4.2.1. Container 

212. The following table presents the evolution of container traffic since 2009 for both exports 

and imports. Exports (loaded containers) represent roughly 15% of the non-empty 

container traffic (TEU), and 25% in tons. Regarding the traffic trend, it is observed that the 

growth of container traffic has been high, with elasticity factors of close to 3 in relation to 

the GDP. 




Table 3-11: 

Historical data of container traffic 

Container traffic versus GDP - historical data 

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

GDP growth 2.37 % 2.45 % 2.50 % 2.60 % 2.62 % 2.72 % 2.80 % 

CAGR Period GDP 2.6% 

GDP 100.00 102.45 105.01 107.74 110.56 113.57 116.75 

Tons (cont.) 163 591 172 829 198 490 215 719 233 387 255 173 255 021 

Growth tons 5.6% 14.8% 8.7% 8.2% 9.3% -0.1% 

CAGR Period tons 7.7% 

TEU 31 344 31 917 34 776 36 978 40 978 43 593 48 141 

Growth TEU 1.8% 9.0% 6.3% 10.8% 6.4% 10.4% 

CAGR Period TEU 7.4% 

Source: GDP data from IMF - container traffic from BP Ltd 

website 

Elasticity Tons growth vs 

GDP growth 2.94 

Elasticity TEU growth vs 


Table 3-12: 

Proposed elasticity factors for container growth 

Proposed elasticity factors container traffic growth versus GDP growth 

2009-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 

Tons growth vs GDP 

growth 2.94 2.00 1.50 1.20 1.10 

TEU growth vs GDP 

growth 2.84 2.00 1.50 1.20 1.10 

Source: proposed by the Consultant 

213. For this section of the forecasts, we found contradictory ideas between the IDB report 

given as input for our study and some recent statements from the representative of BP 

Ltd during the stakeholder’s meetings. In the IDB report, all or almost all container traffic 

has been considered as imports whereas BP Ltd has recently stated that part of the 

container traffic relates to exports and that the high growth rate is directly linked to exports. 

Moreover, we were informed that if a bulk facility was built in Port of Belize City the 

container traffic could drop as some exports could shift from container to bulk. 

214. At this stage, we have preferred to continue with the assumptions of the IDB report. 

215. Based on the elasticity factor proposed above, container traffic has been forecasted in the 

following table: 

Table 3-13: 

Container traffic forecasts 


2016 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 

tons 249 793 tons 299 996 tons 347 778 tons 391 563 tons 436 572 tons 

TEU 47 154 TEU 56 631 TEU 65 651 TEU 73 917 TEU 82 413 TEU 

Source: derived by the Consultant 




3.4.2.2. Oil products 

216. For oil product imports, official data from customs has been used to study the growth 

trends. Oil traffic shows very erratic variations from one year to another, but when the 

period 2006-2015 is considered, the CAGR is 3.78%. 

217. The table below shows the difficulties to establish a direct relation between GDP and oil 

imports. 

Oil imports 

versus 

GDP 

GDP constant 

price 

GDP growth 

in % 

Table 3-14: 

Historical data on oil imports and relation to GDP 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

2.255 2.280 2.353 2.372 2.451 2.502 2.596 2.615 2.722 2.801 

4.58 % 1.10 % 3.23 % 0.80 % 3.32 % 2.10 % 3.74 % 0.73 % 4.10 % 2.88 % 

CAGR GDP 2.44% 

Tons 122 261 114 500 95 536 93 474 99 955 89 087 90 300 107 977 129 182 170 745 

CAGR tons 3.78% 

Source: GDP IMF - Oil 

imports Elasticity Tons growth vs GDP growth 1.55 

Proposed elasticity oil volume growth 

versus GDP growth 1.1 

218. The elasticity found with the historical data seems too erratic and unreliable as it is highly 

influenced by the last value from 2015 when the tons increased by over 30%. We have 

preferred considering a more conservative elasticity of 1.1 which has been used in the 


Table 3-15: 

Oil imports forecasts 

Oil imports 

forecasts 

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Scenario Trend: 

GDP growth -1.03 % 2.34 % 2.00 % 2.00 % 2.00 % 

Oil volume growth -1.13 % 2.58 % 2.20 % 2.20 % 2.20 % 

Tons 168 820 173 170 176 980 180 873 184 852 





3.4.2.3. Total 

219. The following table presents total traffic forecasts for Port of Belize. Bulk import data was 

not detailed enough to determine a specific trend, so its growth has been linked GDP. 

Table 3-16: Port of Belize traffic forecasts (2015-2035) 

2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Imports 681 260 671 488 750 581 831 046 910 604 994 789 

containerized cargo 

- in tons 255 021 249 793 299 996 347 778 391 563 436 572 

- in TEU 48 141 47 154 56 631 65 651 73 917 82 413 

petroleum products 170 745 168 820 173 170 176 980 180 873 184 852 

dry bulk, breakbulk cargo 

& other non-containerized 

cargo 255 494 252 876 277 415 306 289 338 167 373 364 

Exports 249 300 251 280 194 810 227 910 261 040 279 171 

- Sugar 125 400 124 200 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 601 

- Molasses 15 300 15 300 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 770 

- Citrus 84 600 88 830 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 

- Other 24 000 22 950 22 560 22 260 21 540 20 300 

Source: For imports: derived by the Consultant using his own assumptions - For exports: Comparative analysis of 

port operation in Belize – Technical Note n°IDB-TN1236 –January 2017 

Port of Big Creek forecasts 

220. The last data available for the Port of Big Creek was from 2015. The assumptions for 

exports have already been presented in precedent sections. 

221. It is noted though, that the Port of Big Creek’s representatives informed that the project 

team that they were trying to re-group some grain producers in the area nearby the port 

to cooperate with them to start exporting the product. As this is very preliminary and no 

real figures of export targets have been developed this potential traffic has not been 

considered in the forecasts. 

222. For imports, cardboards and fertilizers growth rates have been related to exports growth 

rates. The other products grow in parallel to GDP. 




Table 3-17: Big Creek Port traffic forecasts (2015-2035) 

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

TOTAL 380 339 316 363 344 074 342 336 304 739 507 125 559 243 635 142 693 894 

Import 118 840 105 320 122 165 149 481 109 879 179 235 204 053 230 382 252 244 

- General cargo 16 088 17 397 16 273 24 228 20 000 21 941 24 224 26 746 29 529 

- Cardboards / boxes 58 279 33 304 56 380 38 275 42 168 87 593 101 050 115 152 125 647 

- Cement 28 397 41 060 26 653 70 902 30 000 32 911 36 337 40 119 44 294 

- Fertilizer 16 076 12 747 18 898 16 076 17 711 36 790 42 442 48 365 52 773 

- Other 0 812 3 961 0 

Export 261 499 211 043 221 909 192 855 194 860 327 890 355 190 404 760 441 650 

- Sugar 10 800 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 600 

- Molasses 0 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 750 

- Bananas 124 702 117 365 130 653 124 275 125 000 130 000 140 000 150 900 162 500 

- Citrus (all) 7 441 5 729 2 840 9 232 9 870 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 

- Other 785 533 3 427 1 030 2 550 5 640 9 540 14 360 20 300 

- Crude oil 128 571 87 416 84 989 58 318 46 640 20 000 0 0 0 

Source: Comparative analysis of port operation in Belize – Technical Note n°IDB-TN1236 –January 2017 




3.5 DOMESTIC AVIATION FORECASTS 

Philip Goldson International Airport 

223. The Philip Goldson International Airport (PGIA) is the only airport in Belize licensed for 

international air transport. The airport also serves as a transfer hub for passengers with 

onward destinations to Guatemala and Mexico, as well as to a significant proportion of 

travellers to other destinations in Belize. 

224. Historical aircraft movements at PGIA were shown in Figure 2-11 and projected 

movements are shown in Figure 3-5 below. Historical passenger movements at PGIA 

were shown in Figure 2-10. Projected passenger movements are shown in Figure 3-6. 

The figures clearly demonstrate the high proportion of domestic vs international aircraft 

movements at PGIA, but not so in passenger movements. 

225. Air traffic growth at PGIA is projected at 7% in 2017 partially due to the severe winter in 

North America as well as the introduction of new Westjet services from Denver and Fort 

Lauderdale. Thereafter, growth is shown at 4.0% annually until 2035. Estimated aircraft 

movements in 2017 are 61,526 rising to 69,208 in 2020; 84,203 in 2025 and 124,640 in 

2035. Aircraft movements measure each arrival and departure. 

226. The number of passengers moving through PGIA follows the same trend and is expected 

to grow from 974,317 in 2017 to 1,172,692 in 2020, growing to 1426,759 in 2025 and 

reaching over two million in 2035. 

140000 

120000 

100000 

80000 

60000 

40000 

20000 

PGIA Projected Aircraft Movements 

Figure 3-5: PGIA International and Domestic Aircraft Movements 2017-2035 

0 

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 

INTERNATIONAL DOMESTIC TOTAL 

Source: Egis–Transconsult. 




PGIA Projected Passenger Movements 

Figure 3-6: PGIA Projected Passenger Movements 2017-2035 

2500000 

2000000 

1500000 

1000000 

500000 

0 

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 



Domestic Aerodromes 

227. The Belize Airports Authority (BAA) is the owner and operator of sixteen (16) public 

aerodromes, some of which are mere airstrips, i.e. without terminal buildings. The primary 

aerodromes under BAA management are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Sir Barry Bowen (Belize City Municipal Airport - BCMA) 

John Grieff II (San Pedro - SPO) 

Caye Caulker (CKR) 

Dangriga (Pelican Beach PLB) 

Placencia (PLA) 

Corozal 

Orange Walk 

228. Table 2-10 in Chapter 2 shows the aircraft landings at the busiest aerodromes for the 

period 2007-2016. Table 2-11 shows domestic passenger statistics for the period March 

– July 2017 by airline. Passenger statistics were not collected previously by BAA. 

229. Whilst the traffic growth at the international airport is quite robust, a review of historical 

data for the regional aerodromes shows that the increase in flights has been more modest, 

averaging 2.1% per year. Passengers travelling within Belize have a choice of modes of 

transport: ferry, public transport (bus, taxi) and private transport, as well as air transport. 

Factors such as convenience and cost also come into play. For this reason, in generating 

the projections for domestic air transport annual increases of 3.5% in 2017, and 2% 

thereafter until 2026 have been applied, with increases of 1.5% from 2027-2035. Table 

3-18 shows projected growth for the five busiest aerodromes: Sir Barry Bowen (BCMA), 

Caye Caulker (CKR), Placencia (PLA), Dangriga (PLB) and John Grieff II (SPO). Table 

3-19 provides projections of passenger arrivals at these aerodromes. Passenger 

projections have been based on an average load factor of 6 passengers on the Cessna 

Grand Caravans and 4 passengers on the smaller aircraft. It is to be noted that Caye 

Caulker will be closed to air traffic for up to 2 months in 2018 to facilitate a complete 

runway resurfacing and other remedial work, hence the low figures for that airport in 2018. 




Table 3-18: Selected domestic aerodromes – projected landings 2017-2035 

2016 2017 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 

BCMA 16,688 17,272 17,618 18,329 19,070 19,840 20,237 21,908 23,602 

CKR 4,460 4,460 3,791 4,254 4,425 4,604 4,696 5,084 5,477 

PLA 6,620 6,852 6,989 7,271 7,565 7,870 8,028 8,562 9,363 

PLB 6,438 6,663 6,797 7,071 7,357 7,654 7,807 8,327 9,105 

SPO 20,882 21,613 22,045 22,936 23,862 24,826 25,323 27,009 29,533 


Table 3-19: Selected domestic aerodromes – projected passenger arrivals 2017-2035 

2016 2017 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 

BCMA 150,192 155,449 158,558 164,963 171,628 178,562 182,133 197,175 212,414 

CKR 26,760 26,760 22,746 25,521 26,552 27,625 28,177 30,504 32,862 

PLA 46,340 47,962 48,921 50,898 52,954 55,093 56,195 61,749 65,538 

PLB 38,628 39,980 40,780 42,427 44,141 45,924 46,843 51,472 54,631 

SPO 146,174 151,290 154,316 160,550 167,036 173,785 177,260 191,901 206,731 

Totals 408,094 421,441 425,320 444,359 462,311 480,989 490,609 532,802 572,176 


3.6 PUBLIC (BUS) AND WATER TAXI TRANSPORT FORECAST 

230. The travel forecast for public transport and water taxi is based on models for growth 

factors. The growth factor technique is applied to obtain future trips from the existing travel 

patterns obtained from origin-destination surveys. These factors are obtained for each 

area and purpose of travel (tourism, work, study). The forecast of future trips between two 

zones is obtained by multiplying the current trips by the product of the growth factors for 

both zones, with an adjustment to the relative attraction of the other areas. The purposes 

of travel are classified into two groups, residents and tourists, for these two groups there 

are different growths. 

231. In addition, the proposed demand scenario assumes that if there is a modernization of 

public transport (recent units, upgraded in comfort, formal operation, security, 

infrastructure) and the public transport market share is adjusted upwards accordingly 

based on the stated preference survey results (but also adjusted downwards due to the 

increase in car ownership). Annex 2 provides a detailed description of the used demand 

forecast methodology. 

232. The Water Taxi, mainly operates between Belize City and San Pedro and Cay Caulker. 

For both islands, a forecast for population and tourism was undertaken. For this mode, a 

single growth factor by island was be used for tourists, another one by island for residents 

or workers. A 1 to 1 relation factor (elasticity of 1) is considered between the growth of 

tourism and the growth of trips for that purpose. Similarly, a relation factor of 1 to 1 is 

considered between the population growth and the growth resident trips. 




233. The following Table 3-20 summarizes the passenger demand forecasts results for public 

transport and water taxi. 

Table 3-20: 

Summary Trips/Passenger Flow Water Taxi & Public Transport Forecasts 

Vehicle 

Group 

Water Taxi 

(Passengers) 

Public 

Transport 

(Passengers) 

Trip Purpose 

Base year 

(2017) 

2025 2035 

Job 633 821 1,053 

Recreation 794 1,098 1,577 

Other 357 460 588 

Studies 329 433 562 

Total 2,113 2,812 3,780 

Job 20,113 30.645 40.122 

Recreation 3,580 5.097 8.388 

Other 8,967 11.138 13.331 

Studies 9,799 11.913 14.549 

Total 42,459 58.793 76.390 

** The demand of Public Transport considers the impact on modal choice. 


3.7 CONSOLIDATED FORECASTS 

234. The following Table 3-21 consolidates the daily demand forecasts (weekly average) of 

road vehicle passengers (private road vehicles and public transport) and freight tons 

(semi-trailer, trailer and full trailer), water taxi passengers and domestic aviation 

passengers. In all vehicle groups, transport demand is expected to increase by 70% to 

80% between 2017 and 2035, except for domestic aviation, which is expected to increase 

by roughly 40% in the same period. 

235. A portion of the passengers will be international tourists, either arriving on cruise ships or 

staying overnight. Based on the National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP), 

cruise tourists are expected to grow from 1,005,394 in 2016 to 1,997,750 in 2035 or just 

about doubling in the 20-year period (see Table 3-8). Overnight tourists are expected to 

grow from 385,583 in 2016 to 782,517 in 2035, with Southern and South Eastern Coast 

Belize regions expecting the highest grow rate (see Table 3-7). 

236. In part, resulting from the increased tourist movements, but also due to Belize’s own 

development, the Philip Goldson International Airport passenger movements (arrivals and 

departures, international and domestic) are expected to grow from 974,317 in 20016 to 

2,111,953 in 2035 (see Figure 3-6). Domestic aerodromes passenger movements are 

forecasted to grow at a more moderate pace (see Table 3-19). 

237. In terms of port cargo movements, in 2016 import and export movements were 781,367 

and 446,140 ton respectively, distributed between Port of Belize and Big Creek. In 2035 

the expected import and export movements are 1,247,033 and 720,821 tons respectively 

(see Section 3.6). The actual distribution of cargo between ports will depend on the port 

development scheme finally selected, particularly on the decision of rebuilding Commerce 

Bight (see Section 6.3.4 for a detailed description of the long-term port development 

options). 




Vehicle Group 

Private road vehicle 

(Passengers) 

Public Transport 

(Passengers) 

Trucks (Tons) 

Water Taxi 

(Passengers) 

Domestic Aviation 

(Passengers) 

Table 3-21: 

Summary of demand forecasts 

Segment 

Baseline year 

(2017) 

2025 2035 

Job 37,937 49,785 65,081 

Recreation 6,550 9,844 15,717 

Other 18,236 22,078 26,441 

Studies 1,807 2,200 2,646 

Total 64,530 83,908 109,884 

Job 20,113 30,645 40,122 

Recreation 3,580 5,097 8,388 

Other 8,967 11,138 13,331 

Studies 9,799 11,913 14,549 

Total 42,459 58,793 76,390 

Semi Trailer 22,521 27,962 38,499 

Trailer 8,155 10,901 15,660 

Full Trailer 796 1,196 1,833 

31,472 40,058 55,992 

Job 633 821 1,053 

Recreation 794 1,098 1,577 

Other 357 460 588 

Studies 329 433 562 

Total 2,113 2,812 3,780 

2,433 2,950 3,441 

Total 2,433 2,950 3,441 

Source: Egis – Transconsult 2017 




VISION, OBJECTIVES, SCENARIO, 

AND POLICIES FOR THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM 


238. The CNTMP seeks to advance the development goals of Belize through its transport 

sector. In this chapter, essential features of existing transport sector policy and strategy 

are encapsulated within the overall context of the national development strategies, to set 

the context for the future transport development scenario. 

4.2 FRAMEWORK POLICY CONDITIONS 

239. The availability of an adequate transport infrastructure providing efficient, reliable, and 

environmentally sustainable transport services is a key prerequisite of a well-functioning 

economy. Therefore, transport policy and strategy must be formulated within the overall 

framework of the national development strategy. The transport policy must support key 

national development targets, and, therefore, conform to goals set out in the national 

strategic planning documents. 

240. The overall national development strategy is described in Horizon 2030, the National 

Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030 (NDF). This document provides a full 

range of policies, programs andprojects to implement its vision of the future Belize as “a 

country of peace and tranquility, where citizens live in harmony with the natural 

environment and enjoy a high quality of life”. on the development strategy is further 

detailed in the document Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy (GSDS), 2016- 

2019 which describes the actionable strategy to achieve the development vison. 

241. GSDS provides guidance on prioritization in the implementation of some aspects of other 

subsidiary documents and it aims to create systemic efficiencies and synergies among 

them. At the core of this strategy, there is a commitment to achieve a single overriding 

goal, which is to improve quality of life for all Belizeans. Thus, whilst its stated horizon is 

short, up to 2019, its overriding goal and stated goals and objectives described below are 

a long term pursuit and, therefore, relevant for the CNTMP. 

242. The GSDS program of action is focused in four subsidiary goals described as critical 

success factors (CSF), and objectives and actions to achieve the goals, described as 

Necessary Conditions (NC). The four CSF are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

CSF1, “Optimal National Income and Investment,” 

CSF2, “Enhanced Social Cohesion and Resilience,” 

CSF3, “Sustained or Improved Health of Natural, Environmental, Historical and 

Cultural Assets,” 

CSF 4, “Enhanced Governance and Improved Citizen Security.” 

243. The relevant NC and actions for the transport sector are included in CSF1. These are 

listed below with their original numbering: 

n 

n 

n 

Critical Success Factor 1: Optimal National Income and Investment 

Necessary Condition 1.3: Effective Industrial Policy, Based on Belize’s Strengths 

Necessary Condition 1.3.7: Strategically Prioritize Sectors for Development 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Action 28: Facilitate putting in place adequate basic infrastructure “Basic 

infrastructure” includes climate resilient roads to key tourism sites and destinations, 

air and seaports, and water and sanitation services. Special attention will be paid to 

addressing the adequacy of air access. The MOTCA will consult with the existing 

management of the international airport to undertake necessary infrastructural 

upgrades. 

Action 36: Improve the maintenance of farm access roads and develop new access 

roads Needs in this regard will be ranked according to priority (using the prioritization 

methodology from Section III) as assessed by the MOA in consultation with other 

stakeholders including the MOW. 

Necessary Condition 1.5: Adequate Infrastructure (Roads, Ports, Energy, Water, 

Telecommunications, and Transport). The priority of this NC is to “the integration of 

environmental quality, resource conservation, and ecosystem health considerations 

into infrastructure development strategies and programs. Infrastructure development 

planning will also take into consideration sector development needs (especially 

tourism and agriculture) as well as social inclusion.” The NC actions include: 

Action 1: Maintain the existing primary (highway) and secondary road networks in a 

good state of repair 

Action 2: Enhance and upgrade the road network based on the recommendations of 

the NTMP and subject to appropriate feasibility studies: 

Reducing the economic cost of road transportation; 

Facilitating trade with the rest of Central America; and 

Improving road safety. 

Action 3: Improve design specifications for new road construction and major road 

upgrades in order to reduce future maintenance costs, increase asset life, and reduce 

environmental impact, subject to overall economic and cost benefit analyses 

Action 4: Develop a domestic transportation policy 

Action 5: Improve the competitiveness of sea ports 

Action 6: Improve collaboration with private sector stakeholders to improve 

management and investment in airport infrastructure 

244. The National Development Framework for Belize identifies four main thematic areas: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Democratic Governance for Effective Public Administration and Sustainable 

Development 

Education for Development - Education for Life 

Economic Resilience: Generating Resources for Long Term Development 

The Bricks and the Mortar - Healthy Citizens and a Healthy Environment. 

245. The actions related to the transport sector are covered in the thematic covering the 

economic resilience and the environmental and sustainable development goals. These 

are listed below with their original numbering. 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Strategies to Achieve the Goals for Economic Resilience 

2. Develop the Domestic Market as a Springboard for Exports, Produce Quality Goods 

and Services and Expand Exports 

Make key public investments in economic infrastructure - especially the road network 

and transportation system. 

3. Build a Vibrant Agriculture Sector and Strong Rural Communities 




n 

n 

n 

n 

Improve access to land for farmers. 

Strategies to Achieve Environment and Sustainable Development Goals 

2. Promote Green Energy 

Adopt a national transport policy that covers all modes of transport to ensure safety 

and energy efficiency with the lowest environmental impact. 

4.3 LONG-TERM VISION AND OBJECTIVES FOR THE TRANSPORT 

SYSTEM 

246. From the previous section, it can be concluded that the GSDS and the NDF emphasize 

the need for the transport sector to support the tourism and agricultural sectors’ 

development with environmentally friendly and climate resilience and adaptable 

infrastructure and supporting policies, in an efficient and effective manner and with the 

active collaboration of the private sector. 

247. Within that framework, the transport strategy and policy must meet the vision statement: 

“An effective and efficient transport system providing smooth operations for 

freight and passengers without requiring excessive resources; aiming for 

social equity by providing accessibility to all, especially to those who have 

less; sensitive to environmental preservation with a focus on mitigation and 

adaption to climate change; and enhancing Belize’s growth by supporting 

development opportunities in all economic sectors” 

248. The review of the national strategic planning documents described above also permit the 

identification of major goals at national level for the Belizean society: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Sustainable economic development supporting agriculture and tourism. 

Regional integration. 

Social development and cohesion. 

Mitigation and adaptation (fight) against climate change. 

Preservation of the environment. 

Better governance. 

249. It is appropriate to use these national goals as a reference for the development of transport 

sector goals. These general goals have also been identified and can be re-grouped as 

follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Optimizing the present transport system achieving financial sustainability. 

Improving the performance of the transport system to cover better and in more varied 

ways the needs of Belizean citizens and companies. 

Improving the resilience of the transport system against extreme weather events and 

climate change. 

Reducing, or at least controlling, the environmental footprint of transport infrastructure 

and equipment. 

250. Furthermore, in identifying the specific transport sector objectives, the general goals 

above listed were considered under different perspectives: 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Economic development focus: this perspective covers very important dimensions as 

providing infrastructure that will promote the development of key economic sectors. In 

Belize, this can imply a trade-off between developing transport infrastructure for 

tourism and boosting agricultural exports and trade. 

Regional integration: the country can be active in moving towards regional integration, 

with more active trade facilitation policies and bilateral and multilateral agreements to 

standardize border crossings and facilitate port of entry procedures. 

Social development: in this dimension, elements such as employment, poverty, social 

cohesion, accessibility to markets and services (detailed below), are considered for 

determining transport sector goals. 

Accessibility to infrastructure and geographical coverage, with trade-offs between 

investing in improving the main corridors or the accessibility to rural, less populated 

areas. 

Passenger transport services: the level of quality of service, the geographical 

coverage, the cost born by the user or the mode of transport provided are elements of 

choice that must be considered. 

Resilience, climate change and environmental preservation: in this dimension, it is 

necessary to consider, for instance, trade-offs between costs of building redundancies 

and natural risks, for resilience issues, and between costs for transport operators and 

GGH emissions, for climate change mitigation. 

251. The resulting key transport sector objectives, derived from the consideration of the its 

general goals under the alternative perspectives summarized above, are as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

To develop infrastructure networks to support, in a balanced way, the two key drivers 

of the Belizean economy: tourism and agriculture. 

To increase the quality of service of the public transport system in all its dimensions 

(efficiency, quantity, safety, sustainability and financial viability) so that all Belizeans 

regardless of their level of income can meet their mobility needs. 

To develop the capacity of public institutions and private operators in all sub-sectors 

so the country can handle more ambitious projects in the future. 

To raise the safety standards of the transport system in all its sub-sectors with a focus 

on road safety. 

To increase the resilience of the transport system against climate change by 

increasing the robustness of the system and creating major redundancies for backups 

to strategic infrastructure. 

To establish proper coordination mechanisms between key public and private 

institutions to create a framework of efficient communication through which to 

accelerate the processes for project preparation and implementation, as well as, for 

transport sector reforms. 

To explore different funding options, public and private, leading to a more financially 

sustainable transport system in which maintenance needs can be budgeted for 

adequately, without abandoning the investments in new projects. 

4.4 ALTERNATIVES TO ACHIEVE THE VISION 

4.4.1.1. The Approach to the Supply Scenario Development 

252. For the identification of the strategy that best supports the achievement of the above 

stated transport sector vision, goals and objectives, three alternative transport sector 




developments or scenarios, were considered. In this way, from one transport demand 

scenario consistent with official macroeconomic forecasts (described in the previous 

chapter), different supply scenarios were developed. 

253. The three transport development scenarios have the following main features: 

n 

n 

n 

Scenario A – Giving priority to trade: Improving trade routes between harbour cities 

and other national and Regional centers of growth. 

Scenario B – Giving priority to tourism: Developing the economy via supporting in 

priority the most effective and pro-tourism development undertakings. 

Scenario C – Social, economic and environmental integration: Increasing 

transport cohesion and improving accessibility of territories within the configuration of 

transnational corridors. 

254. Specific objectives and development measures identified for each supply scenario are 

presented in the table below. These have guided the type of investment projects and soft 

measures included in each scenario (see Annex 5 for the detailed description of each 

scenario). 

Scenarios 

Table 4-1: 

A- Giving Priority to 

trade 

Rationale for Scenarios A, B and C 

B- Giving priority to 

tourism 

C- Social, economic and 

environmental integration 

Features 

Improving trade routes 

between harbour cities 

and other national and 

Regional centers of 

growth 

Developing the economy 

via supporting in priority 

the most effective and protourism 

development 

undertakings. 

Increasing transport 

cohesion and improving 

accessibility of territories 

within the configuration of 

transnational corridors 

Objectives 

à Effective and 

resilient transport 

network and 

systems focused on 

exports and trade, 

à Better transfer of 

freight from roads to 

maritime transport, 

à Better public 

transport systems 

on corridor basis 

and a reduction of 

CO2 emissions, 

à Increase of the use 

of private capital in 

transport 

development 

schemes and 

systems 

à Enhancement of culture 

and tourism for 

stimulating socioeconomic 

growth while 

securing sustainable 

development and 

environmental 

protection 

à Ease access to objects 

of culture and tourism 

by transport 

infrastructure and 

integrated systems of 

cultural and tourist 

information. 

à Diversification of the 

range of tourism 

activities and 

development of 

alternative economic 

activities 

à Enhance incoming 

tourism by increasing 

the competitive 

advantage of local 

touristic and cultural 

products in international 

markets. 

à Development of existing 

trade and tourism 

corridors in a balanced 

way 

à Enhancement of the 

development of existing 

sites of growth 

à Contributing to the 

development of remote 

areas with a better public 

transport system 

à Increase of the capacity 

of both public and private 

sectors 

à Speeding-up the process 

of modernization and 

development of transport 

infrastructure via 

modernization and 

upgrade of road network, 

better access to 

modernized and 

developed sea ports 




Scenarios 


trade 


tourism 



Development 

measures 

à Modernization of 

the principal roads 

network focused on 

trade corridors 

à Improvement of 

transport safety 

à Development of 

seaport 

infrastructure 

focused on freight 


border 


processes to 

enhance regional 

trade 

à More secure road 


à Modernization and 


national and local road 

system of touristic 

relevance 

à Development of seaport 

infrastructure focused 

on cruise passengers 

and port specialization 

à Development of sea 

transports servicing 

coastal areas and the 

Islands 


alternative international 

air gates 

à Sustainable & resilient 


à New redundancies for 

road and seaport 


à Improved supply of public 

transport services 

à Moderate improvement 

of border infrastructure 

and processes 

à Inclusive development 

à Better access to areas 

with poor connectivity 

à More public transport 

services to rural areas 



255. It is worth noting that for the horizons of the scenarios (2025, 2035) the short-term 

measures, including on-going and already funded projects, are considered as approved 

and implemented by 2020. Annex 3 provides a detailed list of these projects and 

measures. 

256. The following sections describe more in detail the projects and reforms included in each 

scenario. Each scenario is detailed in two parts: infrastructure investments and soft 

measures (operational, regulatory and institutional). 

4.4.1.2. Scenario A: Priority to Trade – Measures 

257. Scenario A focuses on trade and agricultural development. It prioritizes the development 

of transport corridors, reforms at the borders posts, freight transport investments and the 

upgrade of rural roads useful for the transport of goods. It is weak on social development 

and includes only crucial projects for tourism development. 

Infrastructure Projects – Scenario A 

258. The following principles were used to define the infrastructure component of Scenario A: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

For the roads sector, two main principles have been used to select projects: 

o The widening of the entire primary network (251 miles) to 8 feet shoulders using 

HMA as construction method, which increases the robustness and the safety of 

the primary network. This work aligns with the development of international 

corridors as the Mesoamerican Atlantic Corridor and Mesoamerican Touristic 

Corridor of the Caribbean. 

o The upgrade (paving) of several rural roads used for transporting agricultural 

products (266 miles). 

A few projects for other purposes were selected to complete the scenario. The 

complete list of projects is in Annex 5. 

For public transport, it is assumed that the bus stations will be renewed in all main 

cities (after pilot project in Belize City) by 2035. It assumes that, at least, Belmopan 

will be ready by 2025. 

For the Ports sector: 




o A Bulk Terminal will be constructed in Belize City by 2025, which will shift the 

transport of sugar from BSI by sea via barges to road. Due to the importance of 

this infrastructure for this scenario, the assumption has been made that the GoB 

may participate up to 20% of the cost of the project and the dredging. 

o A Cruise Terminal may be built outside of the Belize City Port by a separate private 

investor, if any, but it is not considered strategic by GOB. No public funds 

participation on this project, only 10% of the dredging. 

n 

For the air transport sector: 

o Relocation of Municipal Airport in San Pedro (2025). 

o Potential extension of PGIA (2025-2035), at the minimum, a taxiway and, maybe, 

the terminal (this will be properly defined in the Medium and Long-Term Action 

Plan). 

n 

For the logistics and trade facilitation sector, Jalacte Border Post will be designed 

following regional standards for Coordinated Border Management and be operational 

by 2025, with a rolling out to the other gates by 2035. 

Soft Measures – Scenario A 

259. On the side of the soft measures, the main choices taken are the following: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

For roads, there is a focus on maintaining the primary road network and protecting it 

with the implementation of weighbridges linked to tolls. There are several programs of 

capacity building both for MOW and contractors covering topics, such as, data 

collection or new construction methods. Moreover, there is a real corridor policy and 

by 2035, specific personnel are assigned to this and meet regularly with the 

representatives of neighboring countries. 

For public transport, the principle is to continue with the implementation of the public 

transport reform proposed in the Short-Term Action Plan. It insists on reducing the 

vehicle fleet age and in the long-term a regulation of emission will be adopted. Some 

particular water taxi services are tentatively developed. 

For the ports sector, most of the actions address capacity building of BPA on different 

areas. Some operational improvements are foreseen in the long-term for the Port of 

Belize City. 

Similarly, for air transport, most of the actions are related to capacity building of the 

public authority. 

For logistics and trade facilitation, an ambitious program of measures is proposed 

covering reforms on the profession, such as, access to profession, concentration of 

the sector and fleet renewal. This is to increase the competitiveness of Belizean 

carriers in an environment aimed at opening the country to regional trade. Linked to 

this, reforms on customs procedures and on the design of border posts are 

implemented to align the country to the regional practices. In the same line, regulations 

harmonizing weights and measures are applied to conform to other countries of the 

region. In the long-term, a regulation controlling the emissions of pollutants is to be 

adopted. 

260. Annex 5 contains a full description of projects and measures included in Scenario A. 

4.4.1.3. Scenario B: Priority to Tourism – Infrastructure Investments 

261. Scenario B focuses on tourism development. Consequently, it prioritizes the development 

of additional infrastructure for cruise passengers, international air connections, water taxi 




services and the upgrade of rural roads serving tourist locations. It is rather weak on social 

development and agricultural development. 

Infrastructure Projects – Scenario B 

262. The following principles were used to define the infrastructure component of Scenario B: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

For the roads sector, three main principles have been used to select projects: 

o The widening of (up to 8 feet) the shoulders of the sections of the primary road 

shared with the Mesoamerican Touristic Corridor of the Caribbean (91 miles). 

o The upgrade (paving) of several rural roads used for accessing tourist locations 

(187 miles). 

o The inclusion of new roads better connecting tourist locations, for example, a 

connection from Altun Ha to Lamanai (32 miles). 

A few projects for other purposes were selected to balance the scenario. The complete 

list of projects is in Annex 5. 

For public transport: 

o It is assumed that the bus stations will be renewed in all main cities (after pilot 

project in Belize City) by 2035. It assumes that, at least, Belmopan will be ready 

by 2025. 

o A network of water taxi docking facilities along main cities/towns to facilitate the 

development of services. These have the additional function of marina. Besides 

the main cities, there are towns, such as, Punta Gorda, Sarteneja and Bomba. 

For the ports sector: 

o Building a Cruise Terminal in the Port of Belize City (2025). To represent the 

interest of GOB on this project, it is assumed that up to 20% of the funds of the 

project (including dredging) are public. 

o Extension of King’s Wharf (2025) and likely second dock for containers in the Port 

of Belize City (2035). 

o No investment on bulk in Belize City. Big Creek becomes the specialized port on 

bulk; Belize City on cruises and containers. All sugar exports from BSI, not using 

containers, shift to the Big Creek Port and transported by truck. 


o New International Airport in Ambergris Caye replacing the Municipal airport and 

creating new international connections. 

o New taxiway in PGIA (2025). 


following classical standards and operational by 2025. 

Soft Measures – Scenario B 

n 

n 

For roads, there is no specific corridor policy in maintenance or in management. There 

is still some capacity building for personnel to adjust to contractors’ new construction 

methods. A PPP law is adopted early to be used on different sectors. 


transport reform proposed in the Short-Term Action Plan. It focuses on reducing the 

vehicle fleet age and in the long term a regulation of emission is to be adopted. A 

specific regulation to incentivize the development of water taxi services is to be 

adopted. In parallel, a capacity building program for Ministry of Transport and BPA is 

proposed (to try to create an integrated tariff system in the long term). 




n 

n 

n 


areas. Operational improvements are foreseen in the medium term for Port of Belize 

City (container terminal equipment) and Big Creek Port (conveyor belts). 

For air transport, a strong program of recruitment and training of new traffic controllers 

is mandatory to operate the new airport. Activities of capacity building of the public 

authority continue. 

For logistics and trade facilitation, the reforms in the medium term are very mild, 

focused on bi-articulated truck permits and the adoption of a regulation harmonizing 

weights and measures with the countries of the region. In the long term, regulations 

on emissions and the reform of road freight sector (access to profession, concentration 

of the sector, fleet renewal) are implemented. 

263. All measures proposed and their durations of implementation are detailed in Annex 5. 

4.4.1.4. Scenario C: Social and Economic Integration – Infrastructure Investments 

264. Scenario C offers a more balanced (and expensive) development between agriculture, 

trade and tourism, without being as effective in trade and tourism as respectively 

Scenarios A and B. It gives priority to the development of public transport services and 

provides redundancies to the transport network, to increase the resilience of the system. 

Infrastructure Projects – Scenario C 

265. The following principles were used to define the infrastructure component of Scenario C: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

For the roads sector, the main guidelines for action used to select projects have been 

the following: 

o The widening of the entire primary network to 8 feet shoulders using HMA as 

construction method, which increases the robustness and the safety of the primary 

network. This work aligns with the development of international corridors as the 

Mesoamerican Atlantic Corridor and Mesoamerican Touristic Corridor of the 

Caribbean (246 miles). 

o The upgrade (paving) of some rural roads used for both agricultural and tourist 

purposes, and to increase the accessibility of some isolated areas or creating 

necessary redundancies (248 miles). 

o The construction of new links to major connections to increase the cohesion of the 

country. The main example is the new north-south road from Tower Hill to 

Belmopan (82 miles). 

A few projects for other purposes were selected to ensure the transport network 

connectivity and integration in the scenario. The complete list of projects is in Annex 

5. 



project in Belize City) by 2035. It assumes that the stations in the cities on the 

George Price Highway (Belmopan, San Ignacio and Benque Viejo) will be ready 

by 2025. 

o A network of water taxi docking facilities/marinas are built in specific locations in 

where needed, namely, Punta Gorda, Sarteneja, Bomba and eventually PGIA 


o A Bulk Terminal will be built in Belize City by 2025. Due to the importance of this 

infrastructure for this scenario, the assumption has been made that GOB may 

participate up to 20% of the cost of the project and the dredging. In this scenario it 

is assumed that GOB promotes the use of IWT or penalizes the road from Orange 

Walk to Belize City (special tax or toll) to avoid a shift from barges to roads. It also 




n 

n 

assumes that BSI prefers to use barges to avoid depending entirely on the road 

(half of its production will be already being exported in containers by road). 

o Extension of King’s Wharf (2025) and in Port of Belize City (2035). The Second 

berth needs more study (to be detailed in the Medium and Long-Term Action Plan). 

o A Cruise Terminal may be built out of Belize City Port by a separate private 




o Relocation of Municipal Airport in San Pedro (2025), with provision for potential 

extension to International Standards (2035). 

o Potential extension of PGIA (2025-2035), at minimum a taxiway and, maybe, the 

terminal (this is properly defined in the Medium and Long-Term Action Plan). 

For the logistics and trade facilitation sector: 

o Jalacte Border Post will be designed following classical standards and be 

operational by 2025. 

o Pilot project for modernization of Belizean Border Posts following the regional 

standards (CBM) by 2035. 

Soft Measures – Scenario C 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

For roads, there is no specific corridor policy but still weighbridges linked to tolls are 

implemented to better preserve the road assets. There are several programs of 

capacity building both for MoW and contractors covering topics, such as, data 

collection or new construction methods. A policy on PPP is adopted and a law on 

Right-of-Way is approved to facilitate the planning and the extension of infrastructure 

in the long term. 

For public transport, the main action is to continue with the implementation of the public 

transport reform proposed in the Short-Term Action Plan and extend its scope to more 

rural areas including services carried out by minibuses and monitored today by the 

municipalities. It insists on reducing the vehicle fleet age and in the long term a 

regulation of emission is adopted. Some particular water taxi services are tentatively 

developed. 


areas. Some operational improvements are foreseen in the long term for Port of Belize 

City. In the medium term, a policy providing incentives might be proposed to promote 

the utilization of inland waterways. 

For air transport, most of the actions are related to capacity building of the public 

authority. 

For logistics and trade facilitation, a program of measures is proposed in two different 

horizons. In the medium, the actions focus on reforming profession (access to 

profession, concentration of the sector, fleet renewal) to increase the competitiveness 

of Belizean carriers in an environment aimed at opening the country to regional trade. 

It includes, as well, the adoption of a regulation harmonizing weights and measures 

with other countries of the region, as well as, clarifying the situation of bi-articulated 

trucks. In the long term, the actions focus on developing border-crossing infrastructure 

and optimizing trade facilitation processes. In the medium term, one out of the three 

gates is selected to be used as a pilot for the implementation of the reforms on customs 

procedures and on the design of border posts to align the country to the regional 

practices. 

4.5 THE SELECTED SCENARIO 




Multi-criteria Analysis for Scenario Comparison 

4.5.1.1. Multi-criteria Assessment Approach 

266. There are two different stages in which a Multi-criteria Assessment (MCA) was employed 

in the CNTMP preparation: the scenario comparison in this Chapter and the project 

ranking in the following Chapter. Whereas the technique and overall approach is similar, 

the type of indicators used varies. 

267. For scenario comparison, the preferred approach required that a set of major goals for the 

Belizean society be chosen and for each of those goals, a set of sub-criteria be proposed 

that could be affected by the transport sector. By measuring how the transport sector of 

each Scenario would be affected by these criteria, we try to compare the overall effects of 

the transport scenarios on the economy of the country. 

268. The steps taken for the preparation of the MCA have been the following: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

A set of main criteria and sub-criteria were defined. 

The criteria and their relative weighting were presented and discussed with the 

stakeholders to get a consensus on the weights to apply. 

The criteria were scored and the scenarios ranked. 

The selected scenario, as the basis for the preparation of the CNTMP, was adjusted 

and expanded to include projects or measures of other scenarios considered important 

by the stakeholders. 

4.5.1.2. Evaluation Criteria 

269. To define the evaluation criteria, the overall transport sector goals were considered. 

Different strategic documents were consulted, and especially the Growth and Sustainable 

Development Strategy (GSDS). Six dimensions were identified during that analysis and 

proposed as main criteria to compare scenarios: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Promoting national economic development. 

Facilitating regional integration and regional trade development. 

Fostering social development and national cohesion. 

Ensuring environmental conservation. 

Increasing network resilience to climate change. 

Addressing the complexity of implementation. 

270. In the next paragraphs, each goal and its sub-criteria is described. 

Promoting National Economic Development 

271. The sub-criteria of this goal aim at measuring how the changes in the transport sector 

promote the national economy by enhancing the potential of the key economic sectors. 

Four sub-criteria have been proposed: 

n 

n 

Serving tourist areas: it measures (in comparison to the other scenarios) the 

improvement to tourist areas, considering tourist coastal spots, Mayan ruins and 

natural protected areas. 

o The indicator is based on measuring miles of new/upgraded roads connecting to 

tourist attractions, as well as, by the construction of a cruise terminal. 

Serving agricultural export production: similarly, to the previous sub-criteria focused 

on tourist areas, this sub-criteria measures of the access to agricultural areas are 




improved, both for domestic market movements and also from production areas to 

ports. 

n 

n 

o The indicator used comprises the measuring of miles of new/upgraded roads 

serving agricultural purposes as well as by the provision of additional bulk port 

capacity. 

Serving economic zones (and industries): it measures how the scenarios improves the 

access to economic zones and industries. 

o The indicator uses the measuring of miles of new/upgraded roads serving 

economic zones and industrial areas. 

Improve skills and level of / quality of service in the transport sector: it measures the 

expected impact of the reforms proposed in terms of professionalization of the different 

sub-sectors of the transport sector (mostly freight and public road transport). 

o The indicator is qualitative based on the ambition and horizon of the reforms 

proposed. 

Facilitation of Regional Integration and Regional Trade Development 

272. The sub-criteria of this goal measure the impact of each scenario in terms of regional 

integration and international trade. Two sub-criteria have been considered: 

n 

n 

Adoption of regional policy and standards for customs: it measures how each scenario 

conforms to the steps of regional integration and transport facilitation. This includes 

reforms that homogenize weights and measures of vehicles, simplification of customs 

procedures, changes in Border Post management… 

o The indicator used is qualitative (based on the number and ambition of the reforms 

proposed). 

Widening of regional transport corridors: it measures the relevance measured within 

each scenario to international transport corridors (such as the Atlantic Corridor or the 

Touristic Corridor of the Caribbean connecting Mexico and Guatemala through Belize). 

o The indicator measures the length of regional transport corridors widened. 

Social Development and National Cohesion 

273. The sub-criteria of this goal address social aspects such as the accessibility in terms of 

geography, the access to public transport for people not owning cars, transport safety and 

others. Four sub-criteria have been proposed: 

n 

n 

General accessibility: it measures the distribution of roads in the different regions, 

mainly roads, and measures the time necessary for getting from each part of the 

country to the administrative capital (Belmopan) or the commercial capital (Belize 

City). 

o The indicator is two-fold: 

§ National coverage = number of miles of paved roads/ population of the 

district. 

§ Access to public equipment and administrative services = average access 

time to district capital. 

Impact for non-motorized population: it measures the way in which each scenario 

improves mobility for people not having access to a private vehicle. 

o The indicator used is qualitative – linked to the quality of public transport services. 




n 

n 

Increase transport safety: as best practice for transport, safety on air transport is 

expected to be strictly followed for all scenarios, this indicator focuses on road and 

public transport safety. 

o Reduction of road accidents (impact of widening of major corridors or paving rural 

roads). 

o Improvement of public transport (fleet renewal and quality of services & driver 

professionalization). 

Promote gender and minorities development: it measures actions having impact in 

those specific demographics in each scenario. 

o Improved access to isolated areas inhabited by minorities 

o Improved access to equal opportunities for women (qualitative general 

improvement of public transport services) 

Ensuring Environmental Conservation 

274. The sub-criteria of this goal identify the impacts of the three scenarios on protected areas 

and in terms of climate change emissions. Three sub-criteria have been proposed: 

n 

n 

n 

Soil erosion, flooding and deforestation: it measures the impact of a scenario on 

natural areas, as well as, the risk of floods due to new infrastructures. 

o The indicator is calculated by identifying the quantity of kilometres of new roads 

crossing forests, with a focus on protected areas. 

Reduction of biodiversity: it measures the impact of each scenario on natural 

ecosystems. 

o The indicator used is qualitative, based on distance to protected areas and major 

infrastructures built (it includes maritime infrastructures as well). 

GHG reduction: it measures the contribution of inter-urban transport to Greenhouse 

Gases emissions for each scenario, focused on road transport (emissions for the other 

modes do not vary much between scenarios). 

o The indicator is measured by the overall GHG emissions (calculated by type of 

vehicle). 

Increasing Network Resilience to Climate Change 

275. The sub-criteria of this goal try to estimate how each scenario contributes to fighting 

climate change by increasing the resilience of the transport system. Three sub-criteria 

have been proposed: 

n 

n 

n 

Robustness: it measures the quality of the infrastructure of a scenario in view of 

damage avoidance and continued service provision. 

o The indicator is qualitative - effectiveness of infrastructure maintenance / overall 

condition and quality of infrastructure /infrastructure in risky areas. 

Redundancy: it measures the existence of backup systems, to sustain operations, in 

this case, alternative paths or infrastructure on strategic locations: 

o The indicator is qualitative (number of alternative infrastructure creating 

redundancies for strategic roads or other infrastructure). 

Recovery: it measures the way in which each scenario helps to optimize time to restore 

service and operation after a shock. 




o The indicator is qualitative - capacity of the scenario to facilitate emergency 

management. 

Addressing the Complexity of Implementation 

276. Finally, the sub-criteria of this goal focus on the difficulties that will be faced to implement 

the scenario. They cover the cost for the public sector, institutional changes required for 

both public and private sector and the potential sources of funding. Five sub-criteria have 

been proposed: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Change required in the public sector: it measures the effort needed in the public sector 

to implement the scenario. 

o The indicator is qualitative based on the number of institutional and regulatory 

reforms proposed. 

Change required in the private sector: it measures the effort needed in the private 

sector to implement the scenario. 

o The indicator is qualitative based on the number of regulatory reforms and 

proposed technical assistance to the private sector. 

Potential for IFI interest to invest/lend: it tries to grasp how the scenarios might be 

perceived by IFI’s. 

o The indicator is qualitative based on the type of projects selected for each 

scenario. 

Potential for PPP: it makes a first review to see whether a scenario could be more 

interesting than the other for private investors. 

o The indicator is qualitative based on the number and type of projects that could 

attract private investment. 

Cost of infrastructure: it makes a first cost estimate for those projects that would 

probably be funded by public funds: 

o The indicator is quantitative and is the cost of new roads, bridges and the public 

participation to port projects (for some scenarios). Programs common to all 

scenarios (such as, bus stations renewal) were excluded as they did not serve to 

differentiate the scenarios from each other. 

4.5.1.3. Weighting and Scoring of Evaluation Criteria 

277. The weights for the criteria were defined in a participatory process consisting of the 

following: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

The Consultant made a preliminary estimation of what was considered to be a 

reasonable weighting for each criteria and sub-criteria based on experience. 

Prior to presenting the Consultant’s proposed weighting, the criteria were presented 

to the stakeholders that were asked to weigh them and rank the sub-criteria. 

The input of the stakeholders were analyzed and then presented to them comparing 

the weighting resulting from the meeting to the one initially done by the Consultant. 

Finally, the Consultant consolidated both exercises choosing a weighting system 

closer to the advice of the stakeholders. 

278. The summary of this exercise is presented in the following table: 




Table 4-2: 

Weighting of the Main Criteria 

Criteria 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Consultant 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Stakeholders 

Final Used 

Weight 

Promoting National Economic Development 25% 31% 30% 

Facilitating Regional Integration and Regional 

Trade Development 

Fostering Social Development and National 

Cohesion 

5% 16% 10% 

25% 15% 20% 

Ensuring Environmental Conservation 15% 12% 12% 

Increasing Transport System Resilience to 

Climate Change 

15% 17% 15% 

Addressing the Complexity for Implementation 15% 9% 13% 

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 

279. Similar exercises were done for the sub-criteria and this was used by the Consultant to 

correct the relative weight of each sub-criteria over the total MCA (Annex 3 provides a 

detailed description of the sub-criteria weights). It is interesting to underline that the 

stakeholders seemed less interested in social impacts of the scenarios than expected by 

the Consultant. On the contrary, they gave even more importance to economic 

development and regional connectivity. 

4.5.1.4. Multi-criteria Evaluation Results 

280. The next paragraphs briefly explain how the scenarios were weighted for each criteria and 

sub-criteria. 

Promoting National Economic Development 

281. The weights for the sub-criteria of this goal appear in the following table: 

Table 4-3: Weight System for Criterion 1 

Sub-criteria 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Consultant 

Serving tourist areas 35% 

Serving agricultural export production 35% 

Serving economic zones (and industries) 15% 

Improving skills and level of / quality of service 

in the transport sector 15% 

TOTAL 100% 

282. The last two sub-criteria have a significantly lower weight. This is due to the feedback from 

the stakeholders referring to the last sub-criteria. For the one regarding economic zones 

and industrial areas, the Consultant expected to receive more information on the current 




plans to develop Special Economic Zones. As this information was not finally available, 

the weight of this sub-criteria was reduced as it could not be measured properly. 

283. In terms of scoring, the figure below shows the results for Criterion 1 and its sub-criteria. 

80.0 

Figure 4-1: Scoring for Criteria 1 

70.0 

60.0 

15.0 

Improve skills and level of / 

quality of service in the 

transport sector 

50.0 

40.0 

30.0 

12.0 

2.6 

12.0 

0.1 

7.3 

8.8 

25.7 

Serving economic zones (and 

industries) 

serving agricultural export 

production 

20.0 

10.0 

0.0 

20.1 

33.6 

10.9 

18.1 

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C 

Serving tourist areas 

n 

n 

n 

Scenario B logically achieves the highest score for the sub-criteria “serving tourist 

areas”. Indeed, most of the road projects identified that have a positive impact on 

tourism are included in that Scenario. 

Surprisingly, Scenario C does slightly better than Scenario A for the sub-criteria 

“serving agricultural export production”. This is besides improving rural roads used for 

agricultural products; Scenario C includes a few new road projects that help creating 

new connections and alternative paths for agricultural products. 

As Scenario C is more ambitious in terms of technical assistance, both public and 

private sector (both freight and passenger carriers), it scores a higher note on the last 

sub-criteria. 

Facilitation of Regional Integration and Regional Trade Development 


Table 4-4: Weighting System for Criterion 2 

Sub-criteria 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Consultant 

Adoption of regional policy and standards 

for customs 

60% 

Widening of regional transport corridors 40% 

TOTAL 100% 





Figure 4-2: Scoring for Criterion 2 

100.0 

90.0 

80.0 

70.0 

27.6 

60.0 

50.0 

25.2 

Widening of regional 

transport corridors 

40.0 

30.0 

20.0 

60.0 

14.5 

39.0 

Adoption of regional policy 

and standards for customs 

10.0 

0.0 

18.0 

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 

n 

Scenario A does better in both sub-criteria: 

o It implements reforms on custom procedures and border post design earlier than 

Scenario C. 

o It is the Scenario more focused on widening transport corridors and applying 

corridor policy to them. 

Social Development and National Cohesion 



Sub-criteria 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Consultant 

General accessibility 45% 

Impact for non-motorized population 15% 

Increase transport safety 35% 

Promote gender and minorities development 5% 

TOTAL 100% 






90.0 

80.0 

70.0 

60.0 

50.0 

40.0 

30.0 

20.0 

10.0 

0.0 

2.5 

1.3 

32.7 

31.5 

2.5 

7.5 

15.4 

7.5 

11.3 

27.4 

21.1 

30.3 


Gender and minorities 

Increase transport safety 

Impact for non-motorized 

population 

General Accessibility 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Scenario C does slightly better on the sub-criteria for “non-motorized population” as 

its public transport reform focuses, as well as, on rural areas and target the minibuses 

lines. 

Both Scenario A and C do well in terms of road safety, even if Scenario A gives more 

importance in widening the primary network (where most of the road accidents 

happen). 

Scenario B and C have some roads improving the access to Mayan areas so even if 

all scenarios do similarly on the gender aspect, B and C score a bit higher regarding 

minorities. 

Scenario C has better results on the sub-criteria for accessibility as it proposes some 

new roads that increase the redundancies in the network. Moreover, it is the Scenario 

that achieves the lowest average time at country level to get to Belmopan and Belize 

City. To estimate this, isochrones have been prepared using the transport model. 

Each color in the map marks the area where the amount of time to get to Belize City 

or Belmopan is similar (periods of 30 min). In the table below, it is shown as an 

example of the distribution of population (by 2035) according to their average access 

time to Belmopan. Then, an average access time at national level was calculated and 

that is the indicator used to compare the scenarios. 

Table 4-6 Isochrones results for the calculation of average access time to Belmopan 

(all columns are in inhabitants unless indicated differently). Horizon 2035 

Scenario 

0 To 30 

Min 

30 To 

60 Min 

60 To 

90 Min 

90 To 

120 Min 

120 

To 

150 

Min 

150 

To 

180 

Min 

180 

To 

210 

Min 

210 

To 

240 

Min 

Over 4 

hours 

Total 

Time 

Average 

Time (h) 

A 99 511 172 982 53 127 114 849 89 481 23 486 4 345 2 384 1 862 721 486 1,28 

B 89 899 170 159 26 500 82 174 93 583 24 383 12 417 26 599 34 603 931 049 1,66 

C 98 664 181 534 75 579 114 262 65 872 18 236 3 840 1 874 2 149 684 799 1,22 

288. Isochrones of access time to Belize City and Belmopan are illustrated in the following 

figures, for the three scenarios. Scenario B shows red isochrones (representing higher 

access times) that are closer to both cities than in the other two scenarios. 




Figure 4-4: 

Isochrones for Scenario A. Left: Belize City. Right: Belmopan 

Figure 4-5: 

Isochrones for Scenario B. Left: Belize City. Right: Belmopan 




Figure 4-6: 

Isochrones for Scenario B. Left: Belize City. Right: Belmopan 

Ensuring Environmental Conservation 



Sub-criteria 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Consultant 

Soil erosion/ Deforestation 50% 

Reduction of bio-diversity 20% 

GHG reduction 30% 

TOTAL 100% 






90.0 

80.0 

70.0 

60.0 

50.0 

40.0 

30.0 

20.0 

10.0 

0.0 

12.0 

15.0 

9.0 18.0 

5.0 

10.0 

50.0 

40.0 

30.0 


GEH reduction 

Reduction of bio-diversity 

Soil erosion/ Deforestation 

n 

n 

n 

Scenario A does the best in terms of soil erosion and deforestation because no new 

alignments are proposed in that Scenario; all projects consist of widening key corridors 

or paving rural roads. In comparison, Scenario C is penalized as some of the new 

roads include some section in protected area, mainly Rio Grande Conservation Area. 

On the sub-criteria measuring the impact on biodiversity, Scenario B is penalized the 

most because some of the road projects proposed cross some animal reserves and, 

especially due to the impact of the cruise terminal in terms of marine pollution, which 

will have significant impact on the coastal species. 

In terms of GHG reduction, it was not possible to calculate emissions for each scenario 

due to the difficulties we faced to characterize the national fleet. We expect to do that 

for the Selected Supply Scenario, at least. Instead of using that method, we have tried 

to assess which are the differences between scenarios. For instance, in Scenarios A 

and B all the sugar is transported by road, whereas, in Scenario C is still partially done 

by inland waterway. Scenario B is highly penalized because the sugar is transported 

by road up to Big Creek Port. More in the qualitative side, Scenario C proposes more 

redundancies which should shorten the average trip length (and hence the emissions). 

Increasing Network Resilience to Climate Change 



Sub-criteria 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Consultant 

Robustness 40% 

Redundancy 40% 

Rapidity 20% 

TOTAL 100% 





80.0 


70.0 

60.0 

15.0 

50.0 

40.0 

10.0 10.0 

28.2 

Rapidity 

Redundancy 

30.0 

16.1 14.8 

Robustness 

20.0 

10.0 

20.0 20.0 

30.0 

0.0 


n 

n 

n 

For Robustness, several dimensions affecting the quality of the transport system and 

its capacity to resist shocks were reviewed. For instance, the quality of the primary 

road network, the quality of the fleet of vehicles for each scenario, the technical 

assistance programs to the private sector (contractors). Based on this, Scenario C 

was slightly superior to the other two. 

For Redundancy, the kilometers of alternative paths for strategic links have been 

measured; for instance, the addition of the Old Northern road, the Bullet Tree Falls – 

Meditation rural road corridor or the new Guinea Grass north-south highway). Similar 

work has been done for maritime and air transport sectors. Scenario C has scored the 

highest on this sub-criteria for being the most ambitious, in terms of investment. 

Scenario A has certain redundancies but mostly for freight transport, whereas, the 

opposite applies to Scenario B; most of its redundancies apply to passengers or 

tourists but not to goods transport. 

The Rapidity sub-criteria was the hardest to measure. It considered the capacity of the 

public sector to react to a shock. So, all the overall capacity building programs were 

considered. In addition to this, the access improvements to isolated or risky areas, 

such as the Cayes, was considered as well. Scenario C did slightly better than the 

others for putting more efforts on capacity building and adding new connections to 

poorly covered areas. 

Addressing the Complexity of Implementation 



Sub-criteria 

Proposed 

Weight from 

Consultant 

Change required in the public sector 30% 




Change required in private sector 15% 

Potential for IFI interest to invest/lend 15% 

Potential for PPP 15% 

Cost of infrastructure with regards to 

public investment capacity 25% 

TOTAL 100% 


Figure 4-9: Scoring for Criteria 6 

70.0 

60.0 

50.0 

40.0 

30.0 

20.0 

10.0 

0.0 

25.0 

23.7 

16.2 

3.8 

7.5 

7.5 7.5 

3.8 

7.5 7.5 

11.3 

7.5 

15.0 15.0 

7.5 


Cost of infrastructure 

with regards to public 

investment capacity 

Potential for PPP 

Potential for IFI interest 

to invest/lend 

Change required in 

private sector 

Change required in the 

public sector 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Scenario C is penalized by the first sub-criteria of “change required in the public 

sector”, as there are several reforms and capacity building programs. This, which is a 

good point of the scenario for other sub-criteria, in this case is a hindrance because it 

increases the difficulty to implement the cost. 

All the scenarios score similarly for “changes required in private sector”. Scenario C is 

slightly more demanding, but the differences were not considered enough to change 

it in the qualitative category (and hence, the score). 

With a wider type of projects, and several of them aiming at providing network 

redundancies and increasing resilience (with non-negligible traffic potentials), 

Scenario C seems the one with more attractive projects to attract IFI participation. 

On the sub-criteria “Potential for PPP”, Scenario B has several big operations (new 

international airport, new cruise terminal) that necessarily require private investment 

and are typical examples of PPP. The size of those projects makes it score higher 

than Scenario A or C. 

In terms of costs, the table below presents the results of the preliminary cost estimation 

for each scenario. The details of the projects included, and the unit costs used are in 

the Annex 7. 

o The costs calculated here only considered those sectors where costs in 

infrastructure would be different for each scenario; programs in all scenarios (e.g. 

bus stations) were not included in this comparison. 

o This cost estimation only considered costs likely to be funded by the public 

sector. In fact, we tried to collect information about the private projects, but the 

data about their cost was not available. In any case, the investment program will 




focus on the public-sector investments, so the work done already gives a 

general idea. 

o Every new road has a massive cost compared to the projects requiring only 

paving or widening. Land acquisition costs were not estimated but may need to 

be included in the project evaluation being carried for the Medium and Long-Term 

Action Plan because, depending on its amount, it could drop the viability of some 

projects. 

o For ports, the costs considered are not the total costs but an assumption of 

participation in a PPP under certain circumstances (10% to 20% of participation). 

It should be noted, that in certain scenarios we have considered that the GOB 

would participate in the dredging works of some projects (the details are in Annex 

7). 

o The new road projects massively increase the cost of Scenario C. The total 

amount is not exaggerated, but it is demanding for Belize and impossible to 

implement without the support of the IFI and the participation of the private sector. 

Table 4-10: 

Cost estimation (only potential public investment) by Scenario 

Cost of infrastructure with 

regards to public investment 

capacity (in Million US$) 


Roads 304.7 266.1 443.9 

Additional bridges 8.0 13.3 10.0 

Ports (public sector participation) 3.75 20.8 10.55 

Total 316.4 300.2 464.4 

4.5.1.5. Comparison of Scenarios 

295. The results of the MCA are summarized in the following figure. 

296. Scenario C has ranked first on the MCA. It is worthy to consider the following points: 

n 

n 

n 

Scenario C is the one that contributes the most to Criterion 1: Promoting National 

Economic Development, Criterion 3: Fostering Social Development and National 

Cohesion and Criterion 5: Increasing Network Resilience to Climate Change. 

Scenario C does reasonably well in Criterion 2: Facilitating Regional Integration and 

Regional Trade Development and it has average environmental impacts (7 points out 

of 12 possible, because of the new road projects). 

Scenario C is costlier than Scenarios A and B, as emphasized by the low score of 

Criterion 6. However, due to the stakeholders’ inputs the final weight of Criterion 6 is 

slightly lower than the initial proposal by the Consultant. That means that it is possible 

that the cost of the scenario is being underestimated and during the project ranking it 

may be necessary to drop some of the projects to rationalize the budget. 

297. The next section presents the revised goals for the final scenario after the selection of 

Scenario C and starts the re-grouping of projects under programs for its study for 

implementation. 




Figure 4-10: MCA Final Results 

70.0 

60.0 

50.0 

40.0 

30.0 

20.0 

10.0 

7.5 

6.9 

8.1 

9.2 

6.7 

6.5 

13.5 

9.3 

8.8 3.3 

13.7 15.9 

6.0 

11.0 

7.0 

15.3 

6.4 

20.3 

Criterion 6: Complexity 

for implementation 

Criterion 5: Increasing 

network resilience to 

climate change 

Criterion 4: Ensuring 

Environmental 

Conservation 

Criterion 3: Social 

development and national 

cohesion 

0.0 


The Selected Supply Scenario 

4.5.2.1. Selected Projects and Programs 

298. This section lists the key projects and programs being developed in the Conceptual Model 

as part of the Medium and Long-Term Action Plan. Few variations may happen depending 

on relevant feedback received from the stakeholders or due to budgetary rationalization. 

Infrastructure Projects and Programs 

299. A program is a group of projects that were aggregated because they share part of their 

rationale, or because they are implemented in the same area or in a similar horizon. There 

can be many reasons to re-group projects. In this case, it is necessary to re-group projects 

under programs to carry out the economic evaluation. This is because certain small 

infrastructure projects can rarely achieve the targets of economic profitability to justify 

them, and sometimes it is even impossible to measure their economic impact. However, 

they can have positive social impacts, but these are very hard to measure. Therefore, they 

are assembled with bigger projects implemented in the same area, so the big project 

benefits help to justify the small projects. Therefore, we stop talking about a specific 

project and we refer to the program. 

300. This is necessary if we want to use the outputs of the transport model during the economic 

evaluation. As mentioned above, the impact of small links cannot be detected with the 

transport model. Therefore, instead of dropping all the short links it is better to re-group 

them with longer roads whose traffic will be measurable in the model. 

301. In the following paragraphs, we present the preliminary sets of projects programs for those 

projects which were possible to aggregate. 




Table 4-11: 

Road Investment projects and programs for the selected supply scenario 

Project / Program 

Length (miles) 

Widening of main corridors program - East 



Widening of main corridors program - South 



Orange Walk rural roads program 

San Esteban - Progreso 10 

Orange Walk - San Esteban 6 

Progreso - Little Belize - Chunox (Chunox road from Progresso-San Estevan 

10 

road) 


North-eastern tourist and rural roads program 




Maskall - Old Northern Highway program 


Carmelita - Maskall (Old Northern Highway) 22 



Bullet Tree Falls - Meditation rural variant program 

Bullet Tree Falls – Branch MoUth Park- Santa Familia - Spanish Lookout 13 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation Bridge 30 


Santa Elena - Tripartite Junction 

San Antonio - Tripartite Junction 3 

Cristo Rey - San Antonio Road 6 

Santa Elena - Cristo Rey Road 4 

Caracol Road Project 

Tripartite Junction - Caracol Road 36 





By-passes and urban roads program 




Altun Ha -Lamanai Corridor 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Philip Goldson highway 11 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai 14 

New North-South Highway 

Guinea Grass Highway (Tower Hill-Guinea Grass-Shipyard-Lamanai- 

Belmopan, including connection to San Felipe road) 

Total miles 578 

68 

302. Most of the road projects consist of widening or paving existing roads. These were 

assembled under programs by zone. Specific big projects as the Caracol road or the 

Guinea Grass Highway have enough weight to be studied as a single project. 

303. For the other modes, the projects are listed as follows: 




Table 4-12: 

Project / Program - Other modes 

Other modes Investment projects and programs for the selected supply 

scenario 

Bus Station Renewal Program following the model of the new bus station in Belize City 

Renewal of Bus Stations in the East-West corridors (Belmopan, San Ignacio, Benque Viejo) - 

2025 

Renewal of Bus Stations in the North-South corridor (Corozal, Orange Walk, Dangriga, 

Independence, Punta Gorda) 

Port of Belize City King's Wharf Extension and potential 2 nd Berth 

New Bulk Terminal in Belize City 

Development of Water taxi/Marina Infrastructure 

Bomba pier 

Sarteneja marina/pier 

Punta Gorda marina/pier 

Relocation of Municipal Airport in San Pedro 

Extension of PGIA 

New Taxiway 

Possible Terminal Extension 

Construction of a new border post in Jalacte 

Program of modernization of Border Posts following regional standards 

Pilot re-design implemented in one of the 3 border posts by 2035 (ideally 2025) 

Rolling out to the other posts after positive implementation of the pilot 

Soft Measures 

304. The approach for re-grouping soft measures is slightly different as the main criteria are 

the scope of the measure, the institution in charge of implementing the measure and the 

horizon. For the Selected Supply Scenario, there are sectors, such as public transport 

where it makes sense to re-group the measures. In others, such as roads, the scope of 

the measures is very different, so they cannot be easily combined to form a program. The 

list of measures and programs for operational, regulatory and institutional issues are listed 

in the table below. 

Table 4-13: 

Soft measures projects and programs 

Sector Project / Program - other modes Horizon 

Roads Implementation of weighbridges on main trade corridors, potentially 2025 

linked to tolls system 

PPP policy / law developed 2025 

Bus Public 

Transport 

Capacity building to MOW on data collection processes 2025 

Technical assistance support to road contractors 

Review of law for Right-of-Way 2025 

Study of a Road Maintenance Fund as alternative source for road 

2035 

maintenance funding 

Continuation of the bus public transport reform 2025 

Re-design of the bus network between key cities including first class 

services and coordinated feeder service within rural areas with 

smaller buses / vans; Electronic ticketing 

2025 




Sector Project / Program - other modes Horizon 

Continue Capacity Building program to Ministry of Transport 2025 

Fleet age limit at 15 years old (inter-city buses) 2025 

Develop some public transport routes to touristic sites to limit 

2025 

charters services dependence on tourism services 

Implementation of freight transport review centers 2035 

Water Taxi Water Taxi development program 2025 

Climate 

Change 

Mitigation 

Ports 

Aviation 

Freight 

Transport / 

Trade 

Facilitation 

Institutional 

Capacity building to BPA on water taxi management 2025 

Implementation of regulation of water taxis to promote service 

2025 

development 

Water taxi services from PGIA and Bomba to San Pedro as well as 2025 

other lines to reduce air transport needs and nuisances 

Policy on fleet emission - climate change mitigation activities 

Implementation of regulation on bus fleet emissions. Follow the 

EPA regulation and technology up to date 

Implementation of regulation on freight vehicle emissions. Follow 

the EPA regulation and technology up to date 

2035 

2035 

Capacity Building Program to the Ports sector - implementation of the 

new Ports Act (Short term) 

Capacity building to BPA on ports management 2025 

Support from GOB and BPA to dialogue with the stevedoring union 2025 

Capacity Building Program to air transport sector 

Continue recruitment and training of new air traffic controllers 2025 

Continue capacity building at BAA and regulatory body 2025 

Reform on the roads freight sector 2025 

Regulating and enforcing weight limits and dimensions of cargo 

2025 

vehicles 

Reform on road freight transport sector (professionalization + fleet 2025 

renewal + concentration) 

Issuing specific regulations for bi-articulated trucks 2025 

Implementation of freight transport review centers 2035 

Border Posts Reform Program 2035 

Develop border crossing infrastructure according to the parameters 2035 

of the regional strategy for Coordinated Border Management (pilot 

to be selected) 

Elimination of cargo change to Belizean trucks at the border with 2035 

Mexico and Guatemala 

Optimize trade facilitation processes (pilot date to be selected) 2035 

Creation of a Planning Unit for coordinating transport system 

investments and reforms 

2025 




4.5.2.2. Results of the Review of Supply Scenario Selection with the Steering Committee 

305. The Consultants reviewed the methodology, assessment results and the proposed supply 

scenario with the Project Steering Committee. Based on this review, the following 

additional adjustments and additions to the proposed supply scenario were presented: 

1. Eliminate the Santa Elena - Tripartite Junction and the Caracol Road Project, since 

these have already committed funds, and include them in the Vase case. (Suggested 

by the CNTMP Office). 

2. Consider adding the Gardenia, Isabella Bank, Big Falls, Jih Cahan road improvement 

(suggested by MOW). 

3. Consider adding El Progreso and Barton Creek access roads improvements (from 

the Chiquibul Road) (suggested by MOW). 

4. Consider adding the improvement of the road access to ATM: Teakettle - ATM (from 

the George Price Highway) (suggested by MOW and CNTMP Office). 




5. Consider adding the Jacintoville - Santa Ana - Barranco road improvement (from the 

road to Punta Gorda) (suggested by Tourism). 

6. Consider adding the Mafredi - Santa Teresa - San Benito (Pusiha) road improvement 

(from road to Jalacte) (suggested by Tourism). 

7. Consider replacing the New North-South with the corridor more to the west: San 

Felipe, Blue Creek, Gallon Jug Private Reserve, Yalbac, with branches to Spanish 

Lookout and Valley of Peace) (suggested by Agriculture). Consider this alternative 

alignment as an option to the proposed alignment and compare both options 

(suggested by CNTMP Office). 

8. Consider adding lateral roads where the road goes through main urban centers 

(suggested by MOW). 




4.6 STRATEGY AND POLICY GUIDELINES FOR THE TRANSPORT 

SECTOR 

306. The transport supply scenario selected for the CNTMP focuses on a balanced 

development between agriculture, trade and tourism. It also gives priority to the 

development of public transport services and to the improvement of the transport sector’s 

resilience and adaptation capabilities to climate change through better information, 

recovery capacity and provision of redundancy. This section describes the strategic 

approach and policy guidelines for each transport mode. 

Institutional Development 

307. One of the critical shortcomings of the Belizean transport sector is the limited planning 

and coordination capacity of the different institutions involved with the sector. Moreover, 

parts of the legal framework are outdated, and the revision of the legislation is necessary 

to bring positive change to the sector, as well as, to harmonize with regional good 

practices and international obligations. The policies described below were already 

introduced in the Short-Term Action Plan. In particular, the reinforcement of the 

institutional capacities and the review of transport legislation were considered critical and 

its implementation should start already in the short term. 

Reinforcement of the institutional capacities 

308. The complexity of the activities performed by the different Ministries and Public Authorities 

is increasing over time and several entities are showing the need for capacity building to 

better undertake their tasks. In the Short-Term Action Plan, capacity building programs 

were proposed for MOW, DoT, BPA and BAA. 

309. This support should continue over the medium term until these government offices can 

properly perform their duties. This means that if the goals of a program were not totally 

fulfilled at the end of the short term period, the capacity building should be extended to 

the medium term, or updated in case additional needs were identified. 

310. The capacity improvement can have different approaches, depending on the sector; 

technical assistance can be proposed or preferably, new specialized staff can be hired (or 

both). In most of the cases, the programs focus on training the existing staff on more 

specialized activities. Still, for certain areas, new staff will be required. The expected 

results of the proposed capacity programs are the following: 

n 

n 

n 

Stronger technical capacity resulting in more efficient decision-making, shorter project 

preparation periods and more capable counterparts to IFIs. 

Technical and legal empowerment to properly monitor and assess the private 

operators involved in the transport sector, including regular and clear reporting 

obligations. 

Higher transparency with regular publication of analyzed information to both the wider 

public and transport sector stakeholders. 

311. The legal empowerment entails changing some of the existing regulations to provide the 

public authorities with the appropriate legal framework and tools. 

Improved governance and planning in the transport sector 

312. As noted before (see Section 2.5.1), the responsibilities for the transport sector in Belize 

are spread across several ministries and departments, and coordination among them is 

low or non-existent. The roles and capacity of governing bodies and institutions of 




transportation in Belize is a critical consideration in the process of implementation of the 

CNTMP, for the development and maintenance of infrastructure. The allocation of 

investment funds in the transport sector may not be done efficiently and effectively if there 

is an inadequate or non-functioning framework of responsible governing bodies and 

institutions. 

313. However, these governing bodies and institutions face significant limitations of resources, 

staff, equipment, training and investment in strategic planning. Therefore, it is necessary 

to strengthen the transportation governance system to better implement the CNTMP, 

focusing on securing integrated transport planning capabilities, to better allocate 

resources and monitor policy and development in the transport sector, to ensure 

collaborative participation of relevant transportation related agencies, and support open, 

timely and meaningful public involvement. Section 7.2 provides detailed description of 

actions aimed at improving the governance and planning in the transport sector. 

Improve the dialogue between public and private sector 

314. The private sector is a strong partner in the transport sector (for example, in the 

management of ports and air transport); however, the dialogue between public and private 

sector is inefficient in many instances. Both sides suggested that regular meetings 

between transport sub-sector stakeholders would increase the trust between public and 

private sectors and facilitate the discussion of new ideas or reforms and their 

implementation. Taking advantage of the capacity building programs proposed for the 

short term, sectoral platforms for dialogue (some of them already exist) may be created 

as a lasting tool for discussing the problems of each sub-sector among its stakeholders. 

Revision of transport legislation 

315. To improve the implementation capacity of the CNTMP by the GoB, a comprehensive 

revision and further legislative reform should be undertaken. Belize has laws which are 

inadequate for its current context and which do not correspond to the pressing 

development needs and the implementation capacity of the government due to limited 

capability or financial constraints. 

316. Guidelines to consider while drafting and revising legislation are the importance of 

stakeholder consultation and the characteristics of effective legislation which are: 

implementable; administrative openness, fairness and impartiality; clarity; coherence; 

comprehensiveness (meaning that matters of the same topic should be addressed by the 

same law); and certainty (referring to what is permitted and prohibited). Tools to evaluate 

if the instruments achieve results must be incorporated e.g. evaluation or sunset clauses. 

317. The revision of several normative texts was proposed for the short term and it shall 

continue over the medium term. In addition, the exploration of new financial alternatives 

includes the on-going drafting of a new legal framework for PPP and the creation of a road 

fund. The main proposed legislative changes are presented in the table below. 




Instrument 

1. Motor Vehicles and 

Traffic Act. Chapter 230 

2. Border Management 

Agency Act. Chapter 144 s 

3. Chapter 233 and 233 of 

Belize Port Authority Act, 

as well as Chapter 234 

and 234s Harbours Act 

4. Chapter 232 Public 

Roads Act and 232s 

5. Chapter 182 Housing 

and Town Planning Act; 

Chapter 184 Land 

Acquisition (Public 

Purposes) Act; Chapter 

185 Land Adjudication; 

Chapter 188 Land 

Utilization Act; Chapter 

190 Law of Property Act; 

Chapter 192 Prescription; 

Chapter 194 Registered 

Land Act; 

6. Chapter 238 Belize 

Airports Authority Act; 

Chapter 239 Civil Aviation 

Act 

7. Public Transport 

Regulations 

Table 4-14: 

Required 

Action 

Amend 

Amend 

Amend 

Amend 

Amend 

Amend 

New 

Regulations 

Main proposed Legislative Changes 

Basic Contents 

Provide incentives for the importation of newer vehicles; increase 

requirements for the obtaining of licenses for freight and private 

vehicles; increase length of the licenses and concessions; speed 

limit; parking regulations; restrictions and enforcement; 

amendments related to the proposed new Public Transport 

Regulations Act. 

Revision of the foreign owned passenger buses regulations and 

fees (alignment with the amendments of the Motor Vehicles and 

Road Traffic Act and the Public Transport Regulations to be 

developed); Size and weight regulations; regulations on special 

permits for transport of goods (refrigerated, dangerous goods, 

etc.); regulations for vehicle conditions to undertake activity. 

Acts regarding the exercise of the Port Authority are outdated and 

should incorporate principles for the participation of private 

investments in port operations. For example, transfer of 

undertakings tariffs fixed since the country gained independence. 

Lack of definition for the role of “General Supervisor of Port 

Activities” for Belize Ports Authority, and unclear distribution of 

Maritime administration responsibilities. 

Repeal provisions such as the responsibility of the Port Authority 

to provide the navigation lighthouses with lighthouse keepers and 

oil lamps. Include international convention provisions, which have 

been ratified by the government, but not yet domesticated in 

internal legislation, such as IMO conventions. 

The BPA has been in the process of drafting pieces of regulations 

falling under the umbrella of the governing act since 2014. The 

first regulation has to do with the domestication of Solace 

Convention, the second one contains water taxi regulations; 

finally there is rough draft for adopting International Security Port 

Facility regulations. 

Design guidelines for highways and streets with reference to 

standards from the U.S., Mexico, and Europe; adoption of design 

guidelines for consistency and safety in the highway network; 

establishment of road hierarchy; right-of-way provisions; updating 

road inventory. 

Incorporate clear definition of public interest for the purposes of 

Land Acquisition (Public Purposes). Amendments regarding the 

functions of the Central Authority, which does not exist. 

Regulations may be drafted and approved by Cabinet to suggest 

different distance amounts for right-of-way according to the 

importance of roads and distance between constructions 

(buildings) and roads. Consider the incorporation of terms for the 

acquisition of easements for public interest (transport). 

Domestication of international safety standards (ICAO); revision 

of governance structures to provide a clear separation of functions 

(policy making, regulatory and operation); institutional reengineering 

according to ICAO standards. 

a) Regarding Transport Operators licences: Requirements to be 

licensed, Grant of licenses, License Categories and Periods 

(improve periods for 2 to 8 years), Form of Application, General 




Instrument 

Required 

Action 

Basic Contents 

provisions for the consideration of applications for the granting of 

licenses, Fees; Conditions to licenses; Amendment of License; 

Renewal of Licenses; Requirement for commencement of 

services to license holder; Transfer of license; Death of license 

holder; Revocation of Licenses by the DoT; Previously Existing 

Licenses; Designation of deciding officers in the DoT; Appeals; 

Guidelines in relation to licenses; offences and proceedings for 

offenses; Notifications and notices; Transitional provisions and 

repeals; Amendments to the Motor Vehicles and Road Traffic Act. 

b) Regarding Public Bus Services: Measures to enhance 

services; Minimum conditions for the operation of bus routes 

(operational standards, provision of operational data, age of 

buses limitation, vehicle specification), Parking and Maintenance 

Yards; Use of Bus Terminals; Terminal User Fees; 

Parking/staging fees; regulations for bus companies; Transitional 

provisions and repeals; Amendments to the Motor Vehicles and 

Road Traffic Act. 

c) Regarding Taxi Services: Minimum conditions for the operation, 

(specific safety or service standards for the industry, coordination 

among the transport service providers); environmental provisions; 

minimum conditions for licenses. 

d) Regarding Water Taxis: Minimum conditions for the operation 

(small vessel safety guidelines, training for operators, control and 

monitoring of the operation); incorporate regulations that are 

currently being drafted by the BPA. 

Road Development 

318. The policy guidelines for the road sector for the medium and longterm are based on the 

proposals made for the short term. These proposals include improving maintenance, 

reviewing a manual of standards, applying maximum vehicle weight regulation, improving 

the capacity of the road sector and promoting pilot projects using alternative financial 

options. The main strategies are presented in the next paragraphs. 

Roads Development Policy based mostly on rural roads upgrades and highways 

widening 

319. As noted in Section 2.6.1.2, Belize has a relatively extensive road network but most of it 

is composed of gravel or dirt roads (see 

Figure 2-5). Therefore, the aims of maximizing the utilization of existing assets, and the 

fact that the paved road network is not yet fully developed, justify a focus on improving 

and upgrading the existing roads to better integrate communities and connect its 

agricultural and tourist areas. The improvement and upgrading of existing roads will also 

reinforce the international transport corridors and provide network redundancies. 

Adoption of new construction methods 

320. To decrease maintenance costs in the long term and better adapt the network to climate 

change, a strategy of improved road pavement is recommended. In this regard, it is 

recommended to change the construction method of at least the primary network 

highways, shifting from Chip and Seal construction to Hot Mixed Asphalt (HMA). The 

adoption of HMA for the main highways should be done with their proposed widening. 




321. For the upgrading of rural roads, HMA would be more resistant against climate change. 

However, due to their moderate to low traffic forecast and the higher cost of HMA, it is 

recommended to continue with the Chip and Seal method for rural roads upgrades in the 

short and medium terms. 

Continuity in the road maintenance program 

322. The infrastructure of the country is the backbone for social and economic development. 

The maintenance program proposed within the Short, Medium and Long – Term Action 

Plan gives the background of the required maintenance to provide the highways with an 

optimal level of service (Section 6.3.2.2 details the proposed Road Maintenance 

Program). 

Establish parameters for right-of-way 

323. The right-of-way is the available terrain to develop further upgrades for roads and 

highways. Every road could require a future improvement according to its increasing 

volume. 

324. A right-of-way of 100 feet is established within the MoW Manual of Standards for the main 

highways, but this is not respected within the complete network, and some sections have 

a lower right-of-way. The lack of enforcement of this regulation results in urban 

development on both sides of the road, sometimes along main highways. This generates 

the need to add speed bumps on the road to increase the safety of the pedestrians, but 

at the same time has an impact on the travel times and on the durability of the vehicles. 

325. The full enforcement of the 100 feet right-of-way policy should be adopted for every road; 

this would secure the land for further developments required. This is essential for main 

highways of the primary road network, and even for urban bypasses. 

Figure 4-11: Right-of-way 

Source: MOW Manual of Standards 

Establish parameters for monitoring vehicles’ volumes and loads 

326. The major damage on pavement surfaces is due to the freight transport in overloaded 

vehicles. Heavy vehicles damage the pavements in relation to their loads and wheel 

configuration. In addition to the correct pavement structure design, a correct operation of 

the roads is required to preserve the quality, level of service and investment made. 

Currently, Belize lacks roads regulations for road freight transport loads. 




327. Belize should adhere to the Central American convention to keep up the roads’ standard 

operation and level of service. This would allow the crossing of vehicles from Guatemala 

and Mexico as well as protecting the assets from overloading. 

Develop a policy for Public Private Partnerships to facilitate alternative sources of 

funding 

328. The Public Private Partnerships (PPP) model for road projects can be a solution to 

leverage the limited public funds and increase the quality and quantity of the road network. 

Also, PPP arrangements provide the possibility of having continuous maintenance and 

operationalization with optimal conditions, either with toll roads or other road user charges, 

or even through more traditional Performance-Based Contracts. Different schemes of PPP 

have been implemented in countries such as, among others, Mexico, Guatemala, El 

Salvador and the United States, between others, allowing them to improve their road 

network system. 

329. The policy should consider the types and magnitude of projects for applying the PPP 

option. This would help to prioritize those projects that align with the government’s 

development objectives. Additionally, PPP schemes are not attractive for small projects; 

meanwhile packs of small projects could present an attractive project for investors. Rather 

than traditional concessions, which require traffic demand volumes much higher than 

those foreseen in Belize to be attractive to investors, other PPP schemes, such as 

Management and Operating Contracts, could be a realistic option for involving private 

investors. 

330. The normative framework should be established to guarantee the best outcomes for the 

country. The length of the contracts should be considered with a maximum and minimum 

time frame; and the contracts must clearly define the responsibilities of the stakeholders. 

331. Other measures considered, focused on a better utilization and more transparent use of 

the financial resources. In particular, the creation of a transport fund involving not only 

public but also private stakeholders is proposed in the chapter for implementation 

arrangements of the medium and long-term action plan. 

Freight Ports Development 

332. Discussions with the stakeholders and the analysis of the ports’ conditions and traffic 

forecasts both suggest the following policies. 

Finding a cost-efficient solution for the combined problems of bulk and container 

333. Providing sufficient capacity for all types of cargoes to avoid bottlenecks is an overriding 

port policy guideline. In the Port of Belize, the traffic potential neither for bulk nor for 

containers could probably justify the construction a dedicated second pier. However, 

finding a solution serving both traffics as multi-purpose berth would make the capacity 

expansion more viable. 

Promotion of market competition and reducing vulnerability 

334. The south of the country, with the Port of Big Creek ongoing dredging improvements and 

eventual upgrade of the bulk handling equipment (with conveyor belts), will have a valid 

infrastructure to handle freight and containers. 

335. To promote alternative port options, fomenting increased port performances through 

competition, and providing redundancy in port facilities is useful if one of the ports needs 

to halt operations due to a natural catastrophe or other reasons. Improvements in bulk 




and container facilities in the north of the country (in Port of Belize or in an alternative 

location if in Port of Belize is not possible) is recommended. 

Continuing in the current port model unless a major opportunity appears 

336. Depending on the availability of financial resources, GOB may participate in some of the 

investments mentioned above and re-assess its role in the sector by becoming a 

participant in PPP arrangements. In an extreme case, the GOB could even consider the 

re-acquisition of the Port of Belize if terms were favourable. 

337. Nevertheless, a major change in the port model for the country is not suggested at this 

stage. Even if the Landlord Port model, with the Government owning the infrastructure, is 

more suitable to keep with the role of the Government as planner, the transition from a 

Service Port model to a Landlord Port model can involve high expenses, operational 

disruptions and insurmountable efforts. 

338. In parallel, closer dialogue and monitoring in this sector is necessary. The support to BPA 

proposed for the short term should continue in the medium term, including support in 

dialogues with the stevedores. 

Passenger Ports and Jetties Development 

339. Two main policies are proposed for passenger port development: 

n 

n 

Support the development of water taxi services, with the construction of additional 

piers and marinas. This will be accompanied by a capacity building program to BPA 

to become an efficient regulator. 

Enhancing the cruise tourism experience, with the construction of a cruise terminal 

entirely funded by the private sector in or out of Belize City. 

Airports Development 

Modernization of the regulatory overview 

340. The reforms proposed in the short term for the air transport sector include the review the 

roles and responsibilities of the authorities in charge of the sector. Therefore, institutional 

support for both authorities (Belize Airports Authority and Belize Department of Civil 

Aviation) will be essential to ensure that such an important transport sector for tourism 

applies international best practices in its operations. 

Capacity increase to accompany traffic growth and reduce air traffic congestion 

341. On the infrastructure side, growth in international air transport and the already existing 

congestion of the air space will require a relatively low-investment capacity increase in 

PGIA (by either extending operating hours or building a taxiway or both). This should be 

accompanied by the relocation of the airports in San Pedro and Placencia. These 

relocations are required to increase the size of the aircrafts serving those two destinations. 

This would reduce the congestion in the air space and would reduce the risk of air transport 

accidents. The airport system should evolve to have a main international airport and two 

new regional airports capable of serving bigger aircrafts as well as general aviation 

services, which would support tourism development in San Pedro and Placencia. 

Focus on PGIA as international gate 

342. PGIA is the preferred option for receiving the future growth of international air passengers 

given that the carrying capacity of the airport is not yet being optimized. However, bearing 




in mind that the airports of San Pedro and Placencia will need to be relocated in the 

medium term, it would be wise to do designs considering certain international services 

(general aviation and eventually charters). This policy should be revised if the 

concessionaire of BACC is incapable of increasing the capacity of PGIA to satisfy a 

minimum quality of service. This may entail a revision of the terms of the concession. 

Freight Logistics Development 

343. The proposed strategy for the strengthening of the Belize logistics system is based on the 

following aspects: 

Gradual opening for regional trade 

344. Belize is part of both CARICOM and SICA. It could have an interest in taking advantage 

of it by acting as an intermediary between both regions. It must be mentioned that Belize 

is not part of the Central American Common Market (CACM, Guatemala, Honduras, El 

Salvador, Costa Rica and Nicaragua). Therefore, intensifying the economic integration 

within SICA might be the main option to increase regional trade 18 . 

345. Opening for regional trade will most likely be done gradually. First, most of Belizean trade 

markets are still overseas. Second, the relations with the current Government of 

Guatemala are tense and could escalate if the Government of Guatemala brings the 

territorial dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). If the decision of the ICJ was 

accepted by both countries, this could be in fact a good opportunity to terminate the 

dispute and develop healthier neighbouring relations. Third, the local transport sector (in 

particular road freight) does not seem ready to compete with the neighbouring companies. 

346. In the short and medium term, the development of complete border crossing infrastructure 

in the southern part of the country should foster trade, with its effectiveness depending 

also on the Guatemalan side. 

347. More in the long run, technological and institutional improvement measures on trade 

facilitation must be taken to streamline border crossing and develop regional trade. These 

were already suggested in the National Strategic Logistics Plan and they are detailed in 

Chapter 4. Among them, free access of cargo vehicles to Guatemala and Mexico (and 

vice versa) would be positive in reducing transport costs. 

Modernization of road freight legislation and professionalization of road freight 

services 

348. The regulatory and institutional framework for freight road transport needs revision to 

foster improvements in the quality of service in the sector and open the door for the 

development of more sophisticated services. Actions will cover topics, such as: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Professionalization of transportation services; 

Renewal of the vehicle fleet; 

Regulation of weights and maximum dimensions; 

Establishing road freight transport review centers; 

Implementation of regulations and standards for air quality control. 

18 

International transport conventions will not be useful as neither Mexico nor the CACM countries have signed 

conventions as TIR (Transports Intrnationalux Routiers, International Road Transport) for the road transport of goods 

or as the International Convention on the Harmonization of Frontier Controls of Goods for border crossings. 




349. In particular, the professionalization of transportation services is a key policy necessary to 

enhance the competitiveness of the transport sector, especially under a scenario of 

increased trade with neighbouring countries. 

Passenger Transport Development 

350. The short-term action plan concerning the Ministry of Transport (MoT), highlighted the 

establishment of a National Motor Vehicle Registration and Licensing System to improve 

the data collection (and capacity for monitoring) of the DoT. In addition to this, the 

development of bus stops and the construction of a new inter-city bus terminal were 

recommended, accompanied by the recommendation for a comprehensive reform of the 

public bus services system, specifically looking at the review of the public transport permit 

terms and the need for promoting fleet renewal. 

351. In the medium and long term the main policy recommendations are: 

n 

n 

Continue to improve the attractiveness of the existing bus service to maintain and 

attract new public transport passengers though enhanced public and private 

governance capabilities and better infrastructure. 

Attract new public transport consumers through increased geographical coverage of 

public transport services and the provision of new services. 

The Multi-modal Integrated Transport Sector Development 

352. A full integration of the transport sector at a multi-modal level should be a long term goal. 

353. For passengers’ benefit, the possibility of a consolidated ticketing system inclusive of bus 

and water taxi services, should be explored in the medium to long term. 

354. For freight transport, the main interfaces are between ports and roads. Inland waterways 

are used today, but the logistics cost analysis has shown that for sugar it would likely be 

uncompetitive against road transport if a bulk terminal were built in the Port of Belize. The 

distances are too short to justify a modal change with the cost of additional handling. 

Again, efforts should focus on improving the capacity of the freight road sector, so it can 

become more competitive. 

Environmental Protection and Climate Resilience and Adaptation 

Development 

355. The GOB has developed several policies to respond to pressing environmental issues. 

The Environmental Impact Assessment Regulations and its Amendment of 2007 states 

that any project or activity that may have impact on the environment is required to carry 

out an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), either a full EIA for projects with likely 

significant impacts, or a Limited Level environmental study for projects with likely low 

impacts. These regulations on environmental protection are in accordance with 

international practice. 

356. To strengthen the environmental policies in Belize, it is now required that we mainstream 

climate change into its national development processes and mechanisms and stimulate 

sustainable low carbon transport that covers both fuels and technologies. Therefore, the 

key proposed policies are on these two aspects. 

Energy efficiency and regulations to reduce GHG emissions and critical pollutants 

357. Belize’s road transport fleet is responsible for almost 99% of fossil fuel consumption in the 

country, therefore, affecting the air quality with clear repercussions on public health. Also, 




by emitting GHG, the vulnerability of the country to climate change correspondingly 

increases. Therefore, the implementation of a strategy on low carbon transport that covers 

both fuels and technology for the different sub-sectors, will bring improvements in the 

reduction of GHG and critical air pollutants from the sector, thus generating health 

benefits. 

358. The programs for public transport include the re-design of the bus network. If this is done 

properly, it can reduce the number of buses providing services, making the system more 

energy efficient and reducing fuel consumption, GHG and air pollutants. 

359. The establishment of an age limit for the fleet can set the path for making Belize´s vehicle 

fleet more efficient and can promote the enactment of an air quality standard in the future. 

This should be combined and accompanied by, such measures as, setting regulations on 

technical inspections; setting regulations for emission standards for new imported vehicles 

and establishing a phasing-out procedure for vehicles not complying with the newly 

established emission standards. 

360. The introduction of electric vehicles would have the positive result of reducing GHG 

emissions. The benefits of electric vehicles would be more evident in the urban context 

for which electric vehicles are more suited. 

361. Implementation of environmental regulations for water taxis should be a key component 

of this program, since this type of transport service may have severe impacts on the 

marine environment. Concentration of oil compounds in water can result from the 

operation of water taxies and can have a direct effect on fishery resources, aquatic biota 

and coastal habitat. It can also reach beaches and areas of recreational activities causing 

damage to the tourism industry. 

Integrating climate change adaptation and resilience to transport infrastructure 

planning 

362. The first step to integrate climate change adaptation and resilience in transport planning 

consists of identifying the risks that the transport network faces. As noted in Section 2.11 

an initial mapping of flood prone areas and transport network critical areas, has already 

been done. 

363. Table 4-15 below contains policy guidelines to consider when designing and implementing 

measures to increase the robustness and the recovery capacity of the transport 


364. A second set of recommendations refer to redundancy development. It is a powerful 

alternative when even after improving the robustness and the recovery capacity of an 

infrastructure, its level of vulnerability is still very high, with regular disruptions. In that 

case, creating an alternative infrastructure in a less sensitive zone, can be a good decision 

in the long run. The CNTMP includes new infrastructure to strategically increase the 

redundancy of the transport network. 

365. As noted, the two approaches have been proposed in the CNTMP. It is suggested to 

integrate these approaches in all planning procedures. An option could be to modify the 

Environmental Impact Assessment Act by adding another section in the document. EIA’s 

screen the impact of the project on the environment, or on human health. There are no 

provisions in the Act to study the impact of natural risks on the project. EIA’s must provide 

mitigation measures if an environmental impact is identified. Similarly, adaptation 

measures in the design of the infrastructure could be requested at the same stage. 

366. Finally, a last topic regarding the integration of climate change adaptation in transport 

planning is the collection of data. First, to rapidly identify any disruption happening and 




inform the population. Second, to collect information about the disruptions, their effects 

and how efficient were the solutions applied. The first type of action is a combined 

responsibility of MOW and NEMO. For the second case, it would be suitable to include a 

module in the Transport Information System (held by CITO) that it is proposed to be 

created to monitor the implementation of the Master Plan. 

Table 4-15: 

Resilience and adaptation guidelines for transport infrastructure 

Transport 


Road 

Transport 

Ports 

Resilience and Adaptation Guideline 

Revise design engineering standards for upgrades of roadways, culverts and 

bridges. 

Upgrade drainage systems to meet rainfall and flooding predictions. 

Review land stability and erosion control requirements related to flood impacts. 

Increase maintenance regimes of the primary and secondary roads. 

Improve capacity of services providers and awareness of users about how to 

manage transport interruptions. 

Implement an extreme weather events information system to keep proper 

records of these events and their impacts on the transport infrastructure. 

Revise design engineering and operational standards related to port drainage 

infrastructure, rainfall and flooding impacts on electricity generators, fuel 

supply and power lines, access and safety for maintenance and operation in 

stormy conditions. 

Assess emergency management procedures including safe harbours. 

Increase storage capacity of existing facilities to account for delays caused by 

weather. 

Protect hazardous materials and stockpiles from potential release due to storm 

or flooding impacts. 

Invest in emergency preparedness to meet local evacuation, response and 

recovery needs. 

Revise design engineering and operational standards related to critical 

infrastructure such as runways, taxiways and aprons. 

Airports 

Upgrade drainage systems to meet rainfall and flooding predictions. 

Review how an increase in extreme weather may affect emergency 

procedures, evacuation and maintenance schedules, including access and 

safety for maintenance and operation in stormy conditions. 

Consider phased relocation of supporting assets outside of vulnerable areas 

(coastlines). 

Consider how impacts on the supply chains may affect airport operations. 

Invest in emergency preparedness to meet local evacuation, response and 

recovery needs. 





ASSESSMENT AND RANKING OF 

PROJECTS AND ACTIONS 

5.1 ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 

OF PROJECTS 

Introduction 

367. Projects included in the CNTMP final scenario were assessed based on three criteria: 

n 

n 

n 

An economic assessment, based on cost-benefit analysis. 

A social assessment, based on social impact analysis. 

An environmental and climate change resilience and adaptation analysis. 

368. The assessment provided in the plan is very preliminary. It serves to identify those projects 

that clearly should be excluded from the plan for economic, social, or environmental 

reasons. However, the fact that a project is successful in the assessment does not mean 

that it should be ready for implementation, but that it should be submitted to subsequent, 

more detailed assessments in future. 

Economic Assessment 

5.1.2.1. Methodology 

369. The economic assessment follows the traditional cost-benefit analysis with the estimation 

of economic performance indicators, the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Economic 

Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), along with Annual Equivalent Value (AEV). Annex 6 

provides a detailed description of methodology used in this analysis. 

5.1.2.2. General Assumptions 

Key parameters 

370. The economic evaluation focuses on the road projects because they will represent the 

majority of public investment costs. It is conducted for a 15-year period, starting from the 

implementation of each planned road, and a one to two year investment pre-operation 

period (depending on the project). This duration corresponds to the lifespan of a road 

infrastructure, before the first resurfacing works. Commencement of services is set at year 

2022 for each road project. A financial evaluation for freight port options has been included 

in Annex 10. No economic assessment was done in airport, port and public transport 

projects. In the case of airport projects, these are justified based on safety issues. Port 

projects are justified based on current capacity constraints of strategic relevance (although 

a financial analysis of freight port options is provided as Annex 10). Public transport 

projects are justified based on their social relevance. 

371. Monetary values are in 2017 USD values, and following the general methodology for 

evaluations.The present assessment does not consider inflation nor VAT/other taxes. 

372. In the economic analysis, a discount rate is applied to investments (capital and recurrent) 

and to benefits, to reflect the opportunity cost of capital from an inter-temporal perspective 




for society as a whole. In other words, it reflects the social view of how future benefits and 

costs are to be valued against present ones. In this sense, every discount rate entails a 

judgement concerning the future and it affects the weight attributed to future benefits or 

costs. A positive discount rate indicates a preference for current over future consumption. 

373. According to IDB Guidelines for the economic analysis of projects, the discount rate is set 

at 12% (IDB website: Economic Evaluation good practices section, 

https://idblegacy.iadb.org/en/topics/development-effectiveness/evaluation-hub/costbenefit-analysis,17891.html?tab=1). 

Base year for net present value calculation is usually 

the year before the commissioning year, 2021 in our case. 

Project costs 

374. Investment and maintenance costs for the 31 evaluated projects are detailed in the table 

below (values are in million USD). 

Table 5-1: 

Investment and maintenance costs (in million USD) 

Project name 

Project 

code 

Investment 

cost 

(including 

bridge) 

Maintenance 

cost (15 years 

- with project) 

Maintenance 

cost (15 

years - 

without 

project) 

Southern Highway PP1 3.5 0.68 9.21 

San Felipe - Blue Creek - Gallon Jug Private 

Reserve 

PP3 98.6 4.92 - 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San Felipe PP4 13.1 1.07 - 

Jalacte Road PP5 0.8 2.31 0.88 

Chunox - Sarteneja (accessibility road + Butterfly 

PP6 8.5 0.83 0.44 

Breeding Center) 

Progreso - Copper Bank PP7 3.0 0.29 0.16 

Bullet Tree Falls - Spanish Lookout PP8 4.5 0.44 0.23 

Red Bank Village Road PP9 2.5 0.24 0.13 

San Jose Road PP10 6.0 0.59 0.31 

San Miguel Road PP11 4.5 0.44 0.23 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town PP12 7.8 0.44 0.23 

Carmelita - Maskall PP13 11.0 1.07 0.57 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation PP14 20.0 1.95 1.04 

Chunox - Copper Bank PP16 6.1 0.15 0.08 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Cahan PP17 15.5 1.51 0.81 

Barton Creek Farm Road PP18 2.0 0.20 0.10 

Seven Mile Farm Road PP19 1.0 0.10 0.05 

Tea Kettle Farm Road PP20 4.0 0.39 0.21 

Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco PP21 8.5 0.83 0.44 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito PP22 12.5 1.22 0.65 

Hummingbird Highway PP23 2.8 7.93 7.21 

Carmelita - Maskall PP24 11.0 1.07 0.57 

George Price Highway P1 2.8 0.48 3.01 

Hattieville – Boom Highway P2 0.4 0.07 0.46 

Maskall - Phillip SW Goldson P3 16.0 0.05 0.42 

Chan Chen - San Pedro (Corozal Bypass) P5 20.1 0.07 0.42 

Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - 

P6 13.0 0.08 0.68 

Orange Walk 

Maskall - Bomba P10 2.0 0.01 0.10 

Maskall - Nago Bank P11 1.0 0.01 0.05 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall P12 5.0 0.03 0.38 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace P13 4.5 0.03 0.23 

Soruce: Egis – Transconsult 2017 

375. A residual value representing 20% of the initial investment cost was considered at the end 

of the evaluation period. This value is calculated by considering that after 15 years, some 




of the road components would lose their value. More specifically, after this period, the 

residual value is composed of: 

n 

n 

n 

75 % of earthworks, 

0% of upper layers pavement (bitumen…), 

0% of work installation, staff costs, transport. 

376. For a reconstruction project, the residual value of a project was estimated as the total 

costs of the last reconstruction divided into the life of the project and multiplied by the 

number of the remaining life years of the project at the end of evaluation period. 

Project Benefits 

377. Benefits from time savings are based on the following model outputs: 

n 

n 

Traffic volumes for each road type vehicle (cars, buses, utility vehicles, heavy 

vehicles). 

Time spent on each road section. 

378. As well as key socio-economic parameters: 

n 

n 

Average occupancy vehicle (2.1 for cars and utility vehicles, 1.5 for heavy vehicles). 

Value of time: 3.01 USD/passenger-hour, calculated as an average of value of 

passenger working time and non-working time (see value of time calculation in the 

Modeling Report). 

379. Benefits from vehicle operating costs are based on the following model outputs: 

n 

n 

Traffic volumes for each road vehicle type (cars, buses, utility vehicles, heavy 

vehicles). 

Unitary vehicle operating costs, based on road conditions. 

380. Road safety benefits are not included in the economic evaluation. Indeed, as there is no 

available data for road safety statistics per type of road and vehicle, it is not possible now 

to estimate potential safety benefits with an acceptable degree of accuracy. 

381. Other externalities or indirect impacts are included in the multi-criteria analysis. 

5.1.2.3. Economic Assessment Results 

382. The following table presents the two main economic indicators needed to assess the 

viability of the project, the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Economic Internal Rate of 

Return (EIRR), along with AEV indicator. 

383. According to these results below, NPV is positive for only six projects (PP1, PP5, PP23, 

P1, P2 and P12), with EIRR above 12%. These projects are economically profitable. 

384. All other projects have negative NPV and EIRR below 12%: these projects are nonprofitable 

from an economic point of view, which considering the low population of the 

country is not a surprise. 




Table 5-2: 

Economic evaluation results 

Project name 

Project 

code 

NPV EIRR AEV 

Southern Highway PP1 35.8 122% 5.3 

San Felipe - Blue Creek - Gallon Jug Private Reserve PP3 -87.2 -4% -12.8 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San Felipe PP4 -11.5 -3% -1.7 

Jalacte Road PP5 0.3 20% 0.0 

Chunox - Sarteneja PP6 -1.9 10% -0.3 

Progreso - Copper Bank PP7 -2.3 -3% -0.3 

Bullet Tree Falls - Spanish Lookout PP8 -4.2 -7% -0.6 

Red Bank Village Road PP9 -1.3 4% -0.2 

San Jose Road PP10 -3.1 4% -0.5 

San Miguel Road PP11 -3.1 -1% -0.5 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town PP12 -5.2 2% -0.8 

Carmelita - Maskall PP13 -10.4 -9% -1.5 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation PP14 -17.6 -6% -2.6 

Chunox - Copper Bank PP16 -5.1 0% -0.7 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Cahan PP17 -14.4 -8% -2.1 

Barton Creek Farm Road PP18 -1.7 -5% -0.2 

Seven Mile Farm Road PP19 -0.8 -4% -0.1 

Tea Kettle Farm Road PP20 -3.1 -3% -0.5 

Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco PP21 -7.7 -8% -1.1 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito PP22 -8.7 -1% -1.3 

Hummingbird Highway PP23 23.4 100% 3.4 

Carmelita - Maskall PP24 -9.3 -5% -1.4 

George Price Highway P1 101.7 361% 14.9 

Hattieville – Boom Highway P2 7.8 161% 1.2 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Phillip SW Goldson P3 -14.4 -7% -2.1 

Chan Chen - San Pedro (Corozal Bypass) P5 -14.6 -2% -2.1 

Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - Orange Walk P6 -7.2 3% -1.1 

Maskall - Bomba P10 -1.5 -2% -0.1 

Maskall - Nago Bank P11 -0.8 -3% -0.1 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall P12 -3.6 -2% -0.5 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace P13 -3.2 -1% -0.5 

Note: Project numbers PP2 and PP15 have been purposely excluded. 

Social Assessment 

5.1.3.1. Introduction 

385. All infrastructure projects are expected to change (mainly positively) the status quo of the 

communities where they take place. The challenge when deciding between alternative 

projects is to select the one whose benefits surpasses its costs based on a comprehensive 

analysis, i.e. including all tangible and intangible; direct and indirect; and positive and 

negative impacts. In this sense, impact valuations enable more informed decision-making 

and support evidence-based policies. 

386. The social impact assessment is a process of reviewing the social conditions affected by 

a specific intervention (project) to estimate the impact on population, propose mitigation 

measures if needed; and compare the results with alternative actions. Its final goal is to 

improve the management of social issues. 

387. For the purpose of this assessment, the proposed projects for the CNTMP are considered 

to be reasonable in terms of market interest: there is an identified demand needed to be 

covered – according to the findings of the Baseline Report. The size for each project is 

assumed to have been carefully studied. Therefore, demand and size are not the focus in 

this assessment as those aspects have already been presented in the previous reports. 




388. This analysis points out the most common social impacts that, according to the experience 

of the consulting group in comparable countries and project proposals, are linked to each 

sector. Due to the uncertainty on estimating accurate quantitative results (with some 

exceptions), the consulting group used at this stage mostly qualitative description of social 

impacts 19 . 

389. The conclusions should be used as general guidelines, and further analysis is 

recommended as part of specific feasibility studies prior to the implementation of the 

selected projects. 

5.1.3.2. Road Projects 

390. The effect of road widening and pavement modernization is the improved movement of 

people and goods, primarily through shorter travel times and reduced vehicle operating 

and maintenance costs. However, the benefits of road projects are wider, since less 

tangible and measurable effects are also produced. The implementation of these projects 

offers, not only infrastructure and safety benefits, but also efficiency and social 

development. Below, additional effects of road projects are commented on. 

5.1.3.2.1 Connectivity among population settlements 

391. Road projects develop and strengthen connectivity among villages, towns and cities. On 

the one hand, social cohesion and an enhanced sense of belonging of small villages and 

towns can be attained. On the other hand, as cities and towns become better connected, 

synergies arise, and population pressures can be alleviated as small villages and towns 

become real options for living. Impacts on small settlements reinforce economic and 

infrastructure development as the mono-centric city model is weakened. 

392. In the case of Belize, new roads will allow the development of potential cities other than 

Belmopan and Belize City. As a result, a homogenous development within the country 

could be reached sooner. 

393. In the medium term, around 383 miles will be modernized, enlarged or developed. In the 

long term, 269 miles will be improved/ developed. Besides current users, distant 

communities will benefit from the upgrade of the transport network. 

394. In the following image, some towns and villages are located to exemplify how 

improvements of roads are spread within the country and how current “isolated” or distant 

settlements will be better connected whit the proposed projects. 

395. As an example of impacts on connectivity among cities and villages due to the 

implementation of the proposed projects, the table in the following page shows the 

changes in distance and time from/to Belize City. 

19 

The uncertainty to estimate quantitative impacts for the projects results from the lack of data (employment per zone, 

historic records on accidents and road conditions, for instance). To maintain objectivity of the results, the concepts 

presented in this section were excluded from the CBA. Regarding indirect benefits, although identified, they were not 

included in the CBA, given the difficulty to distinguish the last relevant impact i.e. the stream of benefits (derived 

impacts) which cannot be easily de-limited. When evaluating multiple projects for different sectors, the consulting group 

suggests considering direct benefits only, since, including indirect ones can lead to bias about how many and which 

indirect impacts to assign to each project. 




Figure 5-1: 

Distant Communities and Project Proposals 

Source: Egis – Transconsult, 2017 

Table 5-3: 

From/To 

Distance and time reductions from/to Belize City (projects 

implemented) 

Current Situation 

Belize City 

Projects Implemented 

Distance (km) Time (min) Distance (km) Time (min) 

Belmopan 78 73 78 40 

Dangriga 166 155 119 117 

Punta Gorda 317 273 269 147 

Independence 226 199 179 98 

Benque Viejo 125 124 125 68 

Ladyville/ Int. Airport 15 21 15 15 

Orange Walk Town 87 80 87 47 

Corozal 137 124 137 75 


Beneficiary population 

396. Users of roads are the main beneficiaries. Nonetheless, for the social assessment of 

roads, the overall population (potential demand) is more important since the focus is not 

on the current users but the potential ones who might not be using a road now for different 

reasons but might become future users (induced demand) and can benefit in the future. 

397. The following Table 5-4 shows the estimation of the projects’ beneficiary population and 

their average monthly income in absolute terms and per kilometer of road. 




# Project Name 

Table 5-4: 

Road project beneficiaries 

Length 

(miles) 

Length 

(km) 

Direct 

Beneficiarie 

s [A] 2016 

Beneficiarie 

s along the 

project [B] 

2016 

Total 

Beneficiarie 

s 

[C]=[A]+[B] 

Average 

monthly 

income 1 ( 

BZD) 

PP1 Southern Highway 101 157.34 20,114 64,401 84,515 2,936 199 638 

PP23 Hummingbird Highway 79 88.15 34,329 62,455 96,784 3,283 435 791 

PP3 San Felipe - Blue Creek - Gallon Jug Private Reserve 54 87.187 6,486 54,167 60,653 3,200 120 1003 

PP4 Crooked Tree - Lamanai 22 34.426 13,609 15,540 29,149 2,689 619 71 

PP5 Jalacte Road (new alignment and widening) 23 34.862 6,761 20,706 27,467 2,197 294 900 

PP6 Chunox - Sarteneja (accessibility road + Butterfly Breeding Center) 17 27.232 3,821 42,259 46,080 2,530 225 2,486 

PP7 Progreso - Copper Bank 6 10.531 2,182 50,756 52,938 2,757 364 8,459 

PP12 Copper Bank - Corozal Town 9 14.319 3,782 46,681 50,463 2,496 420 5,187 

PP13 Carmelita - Maskall 22 33.838 9,687 40,610 50,296 2,849 440 185 

PP14 Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation 40 60.953 13,536 82,454 95,990 3,174 338 2,061 

PP8 Bullet Tree Falls - Spanish Lookout 9 15.175 24,177 57,221 81,398 3,123 2,686 6,358 

PP24 Carmelita - Maskall 22 18.381 3,876 24,699 28,576 4,726 176 1,123 

PP9 Red Bank Village Road 5 6.964 6,043 18,082 24,124 3,065 1,209 3,616 

PP10 San Jose Road 12 19.346 7,205 13,202 20,407 1,579 600 1,100 

PP11 San Miguel Road 9 14.611 6,291 17,433 23,725 2,208 699 1,937 

PP16 Chunox - Copper Bank 3 5.857 4,327 41,256 45,583 2,496 1,442 13,752 

PP17 Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Cahan 31 50.1 4,439 26,724 31,164 3,475 143 862 

PP18 Barton Creek Farm Road 4 6.17 3,190 59,252 62,442 3,177 80 14,813 

PP19 Seven Mile Farm Road 2 3.7 3,190 51,727 54,917 3,177 160 25,864 

PP20 Tea Kettle Farm Road 8 13.07 6,151 48,514 54,665 3,138 769 6,064 

PP21 Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco 17 27.766 2,470 17,029 19,499 2,197 15 1,002 

PP22 Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito 25 39.551 8,874 15,358 24,233 2,197 355 614 

PP25 San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot 2 2.7 11,469 12,352 23,822 5,674 5,735 6,176 

P1 George Price Highway 79 129.056 79,007 178,501 257,508 3,934 1,000 2,260 

P2 Hattieville – Boom Highway 12 19.188 16,318 90,458 106,776 4,710 1,360 7,538 

P3 Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Phillip SW Goldson 16 25.36 3,712 9,634 13,347 2,659 232 602 

P5 Chan Chen - San Pedro (Corozal Bypass) 11 18.332 39,784 45,706 85,490 2,496 3,617 4,155 

P6 Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - Orange Walk 26 42.287 4,723 83,933 88,657 2,705 182 3,228 

P12 Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall 10 16.093 1,795 4,418 6,213 3,784 180 442 

P13 Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 9 12.607 24,909 37,828 62,737 3,250 2,768 4,203 

P10 Maskall - Bomba 4 5.6 1,578 2,754 4,332 3,050 395 689 

P11 Maskall - Nago Bank 2 3.4 1,578 2,754 4,332 3,050 789 1,377 

P projects stand for projects in the short term. PP refers to projects in the long run. 


1 This data is an estimate of the average monthly Income from employment or business, before taxes and deductions based on average revenue by CTV (Statistical Institute of Belize, 2010) 

(A)/km 

(B)/km 




398. Among the medium term road projects, the George Price Highway improvement has the 

largest number of direct beneficiaries and beneficiaries around the project (79,007; 78,501). 

However, Chan Chen - San Pedro - Corozal has the largest number of direct beneficiaries 

per mile (3,617). Hattieville – Boom Highway benefits the largest number of people along the 

project per mile (7,538). 

399. In the short term, the project that benefits the areas with the lowest average income is Chan 

Chen - San Pedro (Corozal Bypass). 

400. Considering all proposed medium-term road projects, a total of 29,391 people would have 

the chance to benefit from the road network improvements (some people will benefit from 

more than one project). 

401. In the long term, the highway with the largest number of direct beneficiaries is Hummingbird 

Highway (34,329). The highway with the largest number of beneficiaries along the project is 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation (82,454). The San Jose Road project benefits 

the zones with the lowest average income. 

402. San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot have the largest number of direct beneficiaries per mile 

(5,735). Seven Mile Farm Road benefits the largest number of people along the project per 

mile (25,864). 

403. If all the long-term road projects are accomplished, a total of 1,088,890 inhabitants will have 

the chance to benefit from the road network improvements (some will benefit from more than 

one project). 

5.1.3.2.2 Accident risk reductions 

404. Adequate construction standards, lane width improvements and pavement quality, in addition 

to vehicles in good operational conditions, have a positive impact on road safety. The risk of 

road accidents is reduced thanks to better geometry and pavement conditions, resulting in a 

reduction of human and economic losses. 

405. Due to lack of data on road safety, it was not possible to make any further analysis to estimate 

the economic and social benefits of potential accident reductions. 

5.1.3.2.3 Access to labor market, educational and health services 

406. The enlargement and improvement of the road network provides society with better 

connectivity from rural settlements to areas where employment, educational, health services 

and markets are more developed. 

407. The labour market benefits from a larger and potentially better educated and more qualified 

workforce. Existent imbalances in this market would be reduced and efficiency improved. 

408. The ability to access schools and hospitals more efficiently provides long term benefits 

through higher education levels and improved health (due to preventive health-care) and 

reduced premature mortality. 

409. In terms of education, access to secondary and tertiary schools will be extended. The impact 

in basic education level is not significant as there is a greater number of primary schools in 

or close to small villages. 

410. Among a sample of villages, Kendall is the village whose access to higher educative 

institutions is improved the most with an average reduction of travel time of 20 to 30 minutes. 




Origin 

Biscayne 

Hummingbird 

Community 

Kendall 

Biscayne 

Hummingbird 

Community 

Kendall 

Golden 

Steam 

Time reductions for other villages to educative institutions are presented in the following 

table. 

Table 5-5: 

Nearest 

School 

Location 

Time reduction to educative institutions (project implemented) 

School Name 

Ladyville Technical 

Ladyville 

High School 

Belmopan 

Belmopan Comprehensive 

High school 

Independence High 

Independence 

school 

Orange Walk 

Town 

Belmopan 

Education 

Level 

Miles 

Km 

Current 

Travel 

Time 

(minutes) 

Travel Time 

– Projects 

Implemented 

(minutes) 

Time 

reduction 

(minutes) 

Secondary 18 29 23 16 7 

Secondary 27 42 30 23 7 

Secondary 25 39 49 27 28 

Muffles Jr. College Tertiary 27 43 40 23 17 

University of Belize, 

Central Farm 

Independence Independence 

Junior College 

Independence Independence 

Junior College 


Tertiary 27 42 30 23 7 

Tertiary 25 39 49 27 22 

Tertiary 35 56 39 31 8 

411. There is also a positive impact on access to health institutions (travel time used a proxy 

variable). For instance, reaching the nearest hospital from Independence, after the 

implementation of the proposed projects, will be 30 minutes faster compared to the current 

situation. 

Origin 

Table 5-6: 

Nearest 

Hospital 

Location 

Time Reduction to Health Institutions (project implemented) 

Hospital Name Miles Km 

Current 

Travel Time 

(minutes) 

Project 

Implemented 

Travel Time 

(minutes) 

Time 

reduction 

(minutes) 

Biscayne 

Orange Walk 

Town 

Northern Regional Hospital 27 43 40 23 17 

Hummingbird 

Community 

Belmopan Western Regional Hospital 27 42 30 23 7 

Independence Dangriga Southern Regional Hospital 47 76 73 41 32 


412. According to the transport model designed for Belize, the implementation of all projects 

proposed will generate a 26% reduction in the total travel time in the long term. Trips made 

for work purposes will benefit from a time reduction of 29% 20 . 

5.1.3.2.4 Poverty 

413. Along with better connectivity and access to the labour market, road projects will contribute 

to a long term reduction in the poverty level by promoting access to jobs, goods and services 

for the poor. The expansion of opportunities for accessing labour markets increases the 

probability of individuals finding jobs, thereby reducing their poverty level. 

414. At the same time, social inequities are reduced making universal access to education and 

health become more feasible. 

20 

In private and public transport. 




5.1.3.2.5 Human Development Index (HDI) 

415. The impact of road infrastructure on the level of human development is not immediate. The 

HDI summarizes the progress made in three basic dimensions for the development of people: 

the possibility of enjoying a long and healthy life, education and access to resources to enjoy 

a dignified life 21 . The transport projects are likely to contribute to the increase of the HDI. 

5.1.3.3. Public Transport Projects 

416. All effects previously described as produced by improvements to the road network could be 

obtained by public transport improvements as well. 

417. Efficiency in public transport is related to reductions in travel time, vehicle operation costs, 

pollutant emissions and, potentially, ticket price. Additional social benefits are the following. 

5.1.3.3.1 Time Reduction 

418. The proposed improvements in the transport system will have a direct impact on time 

reductions. In the long run, public transport users (all trip purposes) will benefit from an 

average reduction of 26%. The greatest reductions will be obtained for trips made for work 

and education purposes (28% and 27%). 

419. As previously explained, gains in travel time do not only mean less time spent on a bus; they 

also imply positive effects on connectivity and access to labour market and education. 

420. Other indirect impacts could also be considered. When people can free up their time, it allows 

them to allocate time to other personal or family activities, or even increase productivity as 

people are less worn down when arriving to the office or home. 

421. Additional social benefits derived from improvements in the public transport system are 

described below. 

5.1.3.3.2 Quality of services 

422. A better-organized public transport system translates into reliability and safety for users, 

improved mobility and better conditions for all vehicles. Waiting times would also be 

optimized. Such a scenario allows users to better plan their trips and free some of their time. 

423. Suitable, maintained and modern bus fleets provide end users with more comfort and 

contribute to ease of travel. 

5.1.3.3.3 Gender Gap Reduction and Benefits for Young and Elderly Users 

424. Public transport improvements have a positive effect in reducing the gender gap, and the 

access of transport for young, elders, and those with disabilities, becoming more inclusive, 

is a benefit that is not that visible in road projects. 

425. According to the samples carried out during the fieldwork, 53% of public transportation users 

are women. Therefore, the creation of new routes and improvements in quality of service and 

physical conditions of the fleet directly benefit more women than men. 

21 

PNUD. (2015). Human Development Index for the states, Mexico 2015. 




426. Greater accessibility to work, education and health institutions could increase the presence 

of women in the labour market, their productivity and reduce the poverty level; and thus, 

generate a virtuous circle of work-training-development. 

427. Young and elderly 22 , being also users of public transport and less likely to use cars for health 

or legal issues, will also profit from all upgrades in this sector. 

428. In the long term, public transport improvements will contribute to reduction in the current 

gender gap existing in Belize and offer a better quality of service for young and elderly – 

frequently considered vulnerable social groups. 

5.1.3.4. Ports, Logistic and Road Projects 

429. The creation of an efficient freight mobility system allows the connection between developed 

and undeveloped areas. The latter benefit more from this connectivity because the population 

settled in these areas increases the possibilities of insertion in already established markets 

and facilitates the generation of new markets. 

430. Besides the impact on the country’s economic development, new markets promote the 

creation of jobs, increase income levels and reduce of income gaps. 

5.1.3.4.1 Social Risks in the Implementation of Infrastructure Projects and Mitigation 

Measures 

431. The implementation of infrastructure projects faces various challenges, ranging from lack of 

resources to delays in construction due to institutional authorization requirements, such as 

environmental approvals. Nonetheless, these are not the only possible obstacles 

jeopardizing the completion of projects. Social aspects are also important elements to 

consider. 

432. In Belize the following social considerations have been identified: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Archaeological and cultural heritage damage. 

Communal lands, such as Mayan and Mennonite zones. 

Negative environmental impact and/or damage to protected environmental zones. 

Social resistance/opposition. 

433. The rich archaeological background of Belize is spread across the country. The infrastructure 

projects proposed under this CNTMP were carefully analysed so that they mitigate against 

negative impacts on currently known archaeological zones. However, the probability of 

finding new archaeological sites during construction is high 23 . 

434. To reduce the potential damage to archaeological assets, it is recommended 'that careful 

planning from initial stages and diligent supervision throughout construction be put in place 

so that good decision-making can be undertaken. Options are to divert or relocate the project 

(all related costs must be re-evaluated) or continue the construction despite the potential 

damage. The decision should consider the importance or value attributed by the relevant 

government institution. 

22 

Based on the field work, passengers on public transport younger than 17 years represent 1% of the demand. Those 

passengers older than 56 years are equal to 3%. 

23 

Currently, in case of archaeological findings while undergoing construction, the Institute of Archaeology is consulted 

about the historical value; and the Steering Committee makes the final decision on whether or not to modify the original 

route. 




435. Any project proposal made for Belize is expected to eliminate adverse impacts on indigenous 

areas. Projects considered would provide rural and indigenous zones with better 

infrastructure and access to services and markets. 

436. Project proposals were defined to minimize environmental impacts. However, in most cases, 

negative environmental effects are unavoidable when building new infrastructures. Specific 

environmental assessments for each project are required to define correct mitigation 

measures and to ensure that the environmental impact is the lowest possible. 

437. Social resistance is an important factor to consider. Although no opposition towards road 

construction has existed so far, it is recommended to analyse the possible social risks during 

the stage of the feasibility studies to allow enough time to identify appropriate solutions or 

mitigation measures. 

438. To start with, all stakeholders (general citizens; political, environmental and even religious 

groups; indigenous leaders; unions, private investors and so on), must be identified as well 

as their main interests and respective position towards the proposed project. Technical 

studies could be conducted in the initial stages, followed by consultations to ascertain interest 

and positions and, thereafter, arriving at mutually beneficial solutions. 

439. It is important to contact all different groups. Pro-projects stakeholders could be reached first 

to help with the identification of other risks and opponents. Groups against the project must 

be contacted as well, but only once the strategy to present the project is clear. At this point, 

local knowledge is a key element to identify the best approach for getting opposing groups 

to support the project. 

440. Timely and clear socialization is fundamental to make stakeholders feel, and in fact be, part 

of the projects’ definition and implementation. 

441. Different communication schemes could be followed, from general project’s presentation in 

media to private focus-group presentations or workshops. Government support in this 

process is crucial. 

442. Benefits and costs (including non-monetary) should be communicated and recognized. It 

would be better to start with the expected benefits and the recognition of negative impacts 

and ways to minimize them than to be considered indifferent or ignorant about undesirable 

or collateral negative effects. 

443. The success of having social approval, most of the time depends on: validating that 

comprehensive studies have been done, that negative impacts are acknowledged, and 

mitigations measures are considered. Stakeholders need to be convinced that benefits 

obtained from the project are worth the costs. 

444. It is recommended to carry out a Social Impact Assessment for each project so tailor-made 

social strategies can be defined 24 . 

24 

Social Impact Assessments could initially be done by each of the institutional sponsors of the projects (Ministries). The 

creation of a specific institution for this purpose can be a long term consideration; it is not suggested for Belize at this stage 

as the strengthening of the current institutional interactions must be prioritized before. For general reference, Annex 2 

provides an abstract of the phases to carry out a Social Impact Assessment and the content proposed by the International 

Association for Impact Assessment and the European Commission. 




Environmental Assessment 

445. In this section, the framework for EIA assessment, the main environmental risks of the 

CNTMP projects, and a final summary of risks and recommendations are proposed. 

5.1.4.1. Framework for EIA Assessment 

446. EIA regulations require conducting an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), either a full 

EIA for projects with likely significant impacts, or a Limited Level environmental study for 

projects with likely low impacts. 

447. Among transport projects requiring full EIA, there are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

The construction of a large harbor, a marina, a shipping port, trade port, an inland 

waterway that permits the passage of vessels or a port for inland waterway traffic capable 

of handling such vessels. 

Any airport having an airstrip of 2,000 meters (6,562 feet) or longer. 

Construction of national highways and other roads of more than 10 miles in length. 

Any land reclamation or creation project of than 10 acres along the coast or within a 

wetland. 

Dredging for land reclamation and/or creation of projects utilizing a volume of material of 

more than 50,000 cubic yards along the coast, Cayes and ecologically sensitive 

waterways. 

448. A second type of project may or may not require an EIA, depending on the criteria of the 

Department of Environment: 

n 

The construction of a road, or an airstrip of less than 2,000 meters (6,562 feet). 

449. As noted, any project of the abovementioned categories must obtain an Environmental 

Clearance. This is delivered by the Department of Environment after approval of the EIA (if 

required) and eventually signing an Environmental Compliance Plan in which specific 

mitigation measures are detailed. 

5.1.4.2. General Considerations about the Measures included in the Action Plan 

450. The widening of the primary road network to 8 feet shoulders, the paving of several rural 

roads to increase the tourism and agricultural connectivity, as well as, the construction of 

new roads to increase the connection of the country in the medium and long term, would 

entail significant alterations of the landscape and have major environmental impacts. Among 

these potential impacts are damage of sensitive ecosystems, loss of productive agricultural 

land, demographic changes, and acceleration of urbanization. 

451. The development of a water taxi network and accompanying docking facilities in specific 

locations such as Punta Gorda, Sarteneja, Bomba and eventually PGIA, would have 

considerable environmental impact on the marine environment and the coastal areas of the 

country. These impacts include the emission of toxic metals, hydrocarbons, liquid and solid 

waste associated with oil spills, sewage discharges, painting and maintenance of boats. 

452. The environmental impact of the construction of a new bulk terminal and the extension and 

upgrade of Port of Belize’s King´s Wharf will be reflected mostly on the coastal processes 

and hydrology; water quality; air quality and noise, since these facilities are or will be located 

in sensitive coastal zones and marine environments. 

453. Additional to the impacts of the construction of the Cruise terminal, the operation of the 

terminal will have major impacts related to the use of energy, water and anti-fouling. Cruise 




can also affect the environment through the degradation of vegetation and erosion (Brida & 

Zapata-Aguirre, 2010). 

454. The relocation of the municipal airport in San Pedro would have considerable environmental 

impacts on the city and its surroundings. The main environmental impacts will come from the 

construction and operation of the airport and are related with the affection of ecosystem and 

land use, generation of noise, water pollution, waste, air pollution and GHG emissions. 

Similar impacts would result with potential relocation of the municipal airport in Placencia and 

the potential extension of the PGIA. 

455. The proposal of a fully operational Jalacte Border Post, that will coordinate border 

management, can induce negative environmental impacts due to construction; however, it 

will produce benefits due to the reduction of delays at the border crossing, reduction of energy 

consumption, GHG and improvement in air quality in the area. 

5.1.4.3. Environmental Assessment of Infrastructure Projects 

5.1.4.3.1 Road transport 

456. The road network will play a vital role in enhancing the competitiveness of Belize’s 

agriculture, international trade in goods and tourism sector. However, the road network 

improvements proposed on the CNTMP through the construction of new highways and the 

improvement and maintenance of the current ones; can alter the landscape and have major 

environmental impacts in the country. These impacts may include the damage of sensitive 

ecosystems, impact on wildlife, loss of productive agricultural land, demographic changes, 

generation of noise, and acceleration of urbanization. (Forman, 2000) (Grilo, Bissonette, & 

Santos-Reis, 2009). The following Table 5-7 describes the environmental impacts of the 

construction and upgrade of road infrastructure identified for the CNTMP. 

457. For the construction of the additional roads proposed in the medium and long-term plan, an 

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) will be required. The EIA will seek to identify the 

potential negative effects of these projects and the options to minimize them, therefore, 

developing a mitigation plan for its implementation. 

458. Road improvements, such as the widening of the primary network to 8 feet shoulders, the 

paving of several rural roads and rehabilitation and maintenance of the network, involve less 

environmental concerns; however, it is also suggested that the impacts are identified, as well 

as, the procedures to mitigate those impacts. 

459. In the multi-criteria analysis, an indicator quantifying the percentage of length of the project 

crossing sensitive areas was proposed to penalise the projects with highest environmental 

impact. 




Environmenta 

l impact 

Damage of 

sensitive 

ecosystems 

Impact on 

wildlife 

Loss of 

productive 

agricultural 

land 

Table 5-7: 

Environmental impacts for road projects 

Description Effects Projects applicable 

- Habitat 

fragmentation 

- Increase in road 

mortality of 

species 

- Spread invasive 

species 

- Change in the 

use of land due 

to road 

construction 

Noise - Increased noise 

(variable or 

continuous) can 

disturb species 

Acceleration 

of 

urbanization 

- Increase of 

human 

presence 

Affecting species 

movement 

Affecting population of 

different species 

Decline of population 

Shift in population 

demographics 

Competition for 

resources 

Predation or disease 

Land use change 

Deforestation 


behaviour (breeding 

and foraging) 

Affecting the ecosystem 

and species 

Barton Creek Farm Road 

Seven Mile Farm Road 

Tea Kettle Farm Road 

San Jose Road 

San Miguel Road (Silver Creek 

Road - San Pedro Columbia loop) 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San 

Benito 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Philip 

Goldson highway 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San 

Felipe 

Guinea Grass Highway 

Gallon Jug Highway 

Same as above 

Same as above + 

All Highway widening’s 

All road projects 

All road projects 

5.1.4.3.2 Ports 

460. The construction of a new bulk terminal, potentially a cruise terminal (for instance, the 

proposed Port of Magical Belize Cruise Terminal) and the new berth in the Port of Belize, 

would have significant environmental impacts on the coastal processes and hydrology; water 

quality; air quality and noise. Since these facilities are or will be located on sensitive coastal 

zone and marine environment, it is important to minimize their impacts to avoid long-term 

and irreversible damage. 

461. These construction works include the dredging to widen and deepen the existing entrance 

channel as well as the construction of berthing facilities. The extent of the impacts on the 

ecosystems and its associated flora and fauna will be a function of the magnitude of the 

development, the nature of the resources, the capacity of the environment to absorb and 

recover, as well as, the mitigation measures applied to the project activities (EPA, 2009). In 

this regard, a report produced by the Australian government showed that the avoidance of 

environmental impact could be major during the process of the port´s master planning and 

design stage, making it critical that these processes consider environmental values (GHD, 

2013). Therefore, an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) should be produced for the 

project that considers the environmental aspects during the whole process and how to 

mitigate them. 




462. It is also important to consider the disposal of the dredged material, since it will also have 

impact on the environment. If the material is disposed of in the open sea, it will affect the 

turbidity of the water column and scatter settlement of dredged material over a large area. In 

the case of Belize, this can have significant impacts on coral reefs. 

463. Waste material (soil) disposal can also have impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, and, if it is 

disposed of improperly, it can affect ground water, contaminate surface run off and re-enter 

the aquatic ecosystem. 

464. As it was mentioned in the previous section, additional to the impacts of the construction of 

the cruise terminal, its operation will have major impacts related to the use of energy, water 

and anti-fouling. Cruise can also influence the environment through the degradation of 

vegetation and erosion (Brida & Zapata-Aguirre, 2010). 

465. For the extension of the existing wharf, identification of the impacts, as well as, the method 

for mitigating them should be evaluated, and depending on the size of the construction work, 

an EIA should be developed. 

466. Below is a description of the environmental impacts identified for the case of Belize due to 

the construction of the bulk terminal, the extension of the wharf and the cruise terminal. 

Environmental 

impact 

Coastal 

processes and 

hydrology 

Water quality 

Air quality 

Noise 

Invasive 

species 

Table 5-8: 

Description 

Beach erosion and 

changes to sediment 

deposition 

Tidal flow and drainage 

Turbidity 

Increase pollutant 

Contamination 

Nutrient input 

Emission of dust 

Air pollution (gas 

emissions) 

Increased noise (variable 

or continuous) can disturb 

species 

Introduction of new 

invasive species in marine 

environment 

Environmental impacts for port projects 

Effects 

Affecting species movement 

Alteration of habitat 

Changes to water quality 

Affecting habitat critical for the 

survival of species such as 

seagrass and corals 

Affecting species behaviour: 

breeding cycle of a population, 

reducing the area of 

occupancy of the species 

Affecting water quality of the 

surrounding area 

Affecting human health 

Affecting species behaviour 

(breeding and foraging) 


Competition for resources 

Predation or disease 

Projects 

applicable 

Construction of 

bulk terminal 

Cruise Terminal 

Upgrade of Port 

of Belize City 

King´s Wharf 

Same as above 

Same as above 

Same as above 

Same as above 

Impact 

Assessment 

Needed 

To be 

assessed 

Yes 

To be 

assessed 

Same as the 

above 

Same as the 

above 

Same as the 

above 

Same as the 

above 

467. Because of the importance of tourism for the economic development of Belize, any activity 

that has impacts on the marine environment should be treated and evaluated carefully by the 

relevant authorities. The following paragraphs have a more complete description of the 

environmental impacts mentioned in the table above. 




- Coastal process and hydrology 

468. Activities such as dredging, land reclamation and the construction of port infrastructure may 

result in changes on the coastal processes and hydrology, impacting ecosystems and its 

species by disturbing the habitat, affecting species movement, etc. These processes vary 

from site to site. These impacts should be identified during the planning stage, as well as the 

means of avoiding or mitigating them. 

- Water quality 

469. The main threats to water quality are turbidity, contamination and nutrient inputs. The 

following table describes the activities that cause these threats and its impacts (Bolam, y 

otros, 2006), (Chevrier & Topping, 1998). 

Table 5-9: 

Water quality 

threat 

Turbidity 

Contamination 

Nutrient input 

Water quality threats and their environmental impacts 

Potential source of threat 

- Dredging 

- Storm-water runoff 

- Erosion, disturbance of sediments through 

construction 

- Alteration of hydrodynamic regimens 

- Disposal of waste 

- Return water from reclamation 

- Bulk management 

- Port construction and operation 

- Spills 

- Cargo handling 


- Bulk management 

- Dredging 


- Erosion 

- Disturbance of sediments through 

construction 

Environmental impacts 

Light attenuation reducing 

photosynthetic activities, 

deteriorating health of plants. 

Reduce visibility 

Behavioural-related disruption 

of organisms 

Reduce organism ability to 

grow 

Toxic impacts on fauna 

Contamination of food chain 

Human health impacts 

Eutrophication 

Bloom of algal / phytoplankton / 

dinoflagellate potentially toxic 

to both animals and human 

470. The reception and treatment of ships’ waste will require adequate management and 

monitoring due to its potential negative effects on turbidity and contamination, if spills occur. 

This is particularly important for the Cruise terminal as it may be built close to leisure beaches. 

Specific provisions on this issue should be added in the EIA process. 

- Air quality and GHG emissions 

471. Air quality tends to be a major environmental issue for many ports around the world because 

of air pollutants and emissions of greenhouse gases from the manoeuvring and berthing of 

ships. Currently this is not a major issue in Belize, but with the extension of the new berth 

and the construction of the Cruise terminal, these issues should start to be considered as 

part of the environmental impacts. 

- Noise and vibration 

472. Port activities related to construction and operations create noise and vibration in the 

terrestrial and marine environment. The former was better documented and is identified as 

the number one environmental issue of ports in Europe (ESPO, 2012). These impacts may 




include: physiological damage, Permanent Threshold Shift (PTS) 25 , Temporary Threshold 

Shift (TTS) 26 , behavioural changes, and change of migration routes (Knight & Swaddle, 

2011). 

473. Underwater noise has been studied less, but some of the studies identify significant 

behavioural response of marine mammals related to aggressive behaviour, startled 

response, brief separation of mother and calf and brief cessation of reproductive behaviour 

(Boyd & al, 2008), (Erbe, 2013). 

- Invasive species 

474. International shipping can introduce invasive marine pest species to different regions 

threatening marine biology diversity. The main sources of invasive species are associated to 

biofouling and ballast water (Hewitt & Campbell, 2010). 

475. Invasive species can have significant impacts on human health, fishing, aquaculture, and 

integrity of ecosystems. Normally these impacts are cumulative and irreversible. 

476. Shipping due to cargo vessels and cruise will increase with the extension of the cargo 

terminal and the construction of a cruise one, having significant environmental impacts on 

water quality, air quality, as well as on coastal and marine environment. 

477. Some of the main sources for water pollution from shipping are associated with discharges 

of bilge water, ballast water and oil water, as well as sewage and garbage. However, since 

1988, Annex 5 of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships 

(MARPOL) governs waste discharged overboard from ships. In 2013, a revision of this annex 

introduced stricter controls on the disposal of garbage from ships at sea, stipulating that the 

discharge of all garbage into the sea is prohibited, except for food wastes, cargo residues 

and water used for washing deck and external surfaces containing cleaning agents or 

additives which are not harmful to the marine environment and that are discharged en-route 

(MARPOL, 2013). 

478. On coastal and marine environment, oily water can have a direct effect on fishery resources, 

aquatic biota and coastal habitat. It can also reach beaches and spoil recreation activities 

causing serious damage to tourism. 

- Summary 

479. As explained in this section, environmental impacts for cargo ports and cruise terminals are 

important. This said, it is important to differentiate the impact of the different types of projects. 

480. The main impact of the extension in the Port of Belize (with a bulk terminal) will be the initial 

dredging and mitigation measures will be required. However, the impact of not doing these 

works will be longer waiting times for vessels in the long term and hence having a higher 

impact in water pollution. Taking into account that the activities will be kept in an already 

turbid area, the impacts of the extensions seem manageable. 

481. The impact on the Cruise terminal will be very severe as the dredging needs will be 

significantly higher and the pollutants expelled by the cruises approaching the coast will 

largely surpass the current situation. Moreover, a project as the Port of Magical Belize, 

proposed in front of the Northern Lagoon, may damage the local marine ecosystem. 

25 

PTS means a permanent shift on hearing sensitivity 

26 

TST means temporary effect on hearing 




5.1.4.3.3 Water docking/Marinas 

482. The operation of a network of water taxis and the construction of docking facilities/marinas 

in specific locations like Punta Gorda, Sarteneja, Bomba and eventually PGIA, will have 

important environmental impact on the marine environment and the coastal areas of the 

country. These impacts can include emission of toxic metals, hydrocarbons, liquid and solid 

waste associated with oil spills, sewage discharges, painting and maintenance of boats. 

However, the traffic on those areas should be of low intensity and the impact should be of 

low intensity. 

5.1.4.3.4 Airports 

483. The relocation of the municipal airports in San Pedro and Placencia will have considerable 

environmental impacts on the cities and its surroundings, especially for San Pedro. The main 

impacts will come from the construction and operation of the airport, related to the impact on 

the ecosystem and land use, generation of noise, water pollution, waste, air pollution and 

GHG emissions. 

484. Before the construction of the airport, an EIA should be developed identifying the 

environmental impacts of the project as well as its mitigation actions. The following table 

describes the environmental impacts identified by the construction of a new airport and a 

potential extension of the PGIA (Gray-Mullen). 

Area of 

Impact 

Land use 

Ecosystems 

Air quality 

and climate 

Noise 

Solid waste 

Water 

pollution 

Table 5-10: 

Description 

Compete for land with 

adjacent communities 

Change in land use 

affecting the ecosystem 

Aircrafts emissions 

Airside and landside 

vehicles 

Ground support equipment 

Fuel storage 

Emitted by Aircrafts 

Take-off and landing 

Waste produce in 

terminals, airfield operation, 

maintenance activities and 

aircraft catering 

Discharge water 

Fuel or oil spills 

Impacts of airport construction 

Effects 

Change in land use 

codes 


movement 

Alteration of habitat 


Increase in greenhouse 

gas emissions 

Affecting human health. 

Increase of waste in the 

area 


Contamination of 

surface or groundwater, 

affecting human health 

and aquatic life 

Projects 

applicable 

Relocation of 

San Pedro 

Airport 

Same as the 

above 

Same as the 

above 

Same as the 

above 

Same as the 

above 

Same as the 

above 

Impact 

Assessment 

Needed 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

5.1.4.4. Environmental Assessment Results 

485. The following table summarizes the main results of the environmental assessment after a 

pre-screening: 




Table 5-11: 

Summary of environmental impacts 

Project 

Widening of George Price Highway 

Widening of Hattieville – Boom Highway 

Widening of Hummingbird Highway 

Widening of Southern Highway 

Widening of Jalacte road 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch MoUth Park bridge - Santa 

Familia - Spanish Lookout 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation Bridge- 

La Democracia 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 

Chan Chen - San Pedro – (Corozal Bypass) 

San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot 

Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 

Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - Orange 

Walk 

Progreso - Copper Bank 

Maskall - Bomba 

Risks 

Loss of agricultural land 

Noise 

Acceleration of urbanisation 


Noise 



Noise 



Noise 



Noise 


Noise 



Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Enough to drop 

the project? 

EIA required 

Additional 

recommendations 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No 

No 

Limited Level 

environmental study 

No Yes None 

No 

No 

Limited Level 


No Yes None 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Limited Level 


Limited Level 


No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No 

No 

Limited Level 





Project 

Carmelita - Maskall (Old Northern Highway) 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - 

Maskall - Nago Bank 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town 

Chunox - Copper Bank 

Chunox - Sarteneja 

Barton Creek Farm Road 



Guinea Grass Highway (Tower Hill -Guinea Grass- 

Shipyard-Lamanai-Belmopan, including connection to 

San Felipe Road) 

San Jose Road 

Risks 

Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Noise 


Damage of sensitive ecosystems 

Impact on wildlife 


Noise 





Noise 





Noise 





Noise 





Noise 



the project? 

EIA required 

Additional 


No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Limited Level 


Limited Level 


Limited Level 


Limited Level 


No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 




Project 

San Miguel Road (Silver Creek Road - San Pedro 

Columbia loop) 

Red Bank Village Road 

Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito 

Lucky Strike (Altun ha) - Philip Goldson highway 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San Felipe 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Cahan road 

Build yards and workshops for parking and bus 

maintenance 

Renewed / build bus terminals in all main cities 2nd 

phase: Belize City – Belmopan – San Ignacio 

Renewed / build bus terminals in all main cities: 3rd 

phase Belize City – Orange Walk – Corozal 

Renewed / build bus terminals in all main cities 4rd 

phase Belize City – Dangriga – Placencia – Punta Gorda 

Water taxis development program 

Cruise Terminal in Port of Magical Belize 

Risks 




Noise 


Noise 


Noise 











Noise 


Air quality 

Noise 

Air quality 

Noise 

Air quality 

Noise 

Air quality 

Noise 

Water pollution from spills and ship 

waste 

Turbidity from dredging 

Noise 


waste 


Impact on coastal processes and 

hydrology 


the project? 

EIA required 

Additional 


No No None 

No No None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 




Project 

Second multi-purpose berth for the Port of Belize 

PGIA capacity increase program (taxiway, lighting, 

terminal) 

Relocation of San Pedro Airport 

Relocation of Placencia Airport 

Jalacte Border Post designed following regular standards 

Modernization of Border Posts (Santa Elena selected for 

pilot program) 

Risks 

Noise 

Air quality 


waste 


Land use 

Ecosystems 

Air quality and climate 

Noise 

Land use 

Ecosystems 


Noise 

Land use 

Ecosystems 


Noise 


Noise 



Noise 



the project? 

EIA required 

Additional 


No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 

No Yes None 




5.2 MULTI-CRITERIA RANKING OF ROAD PROJECTS 

Methodology 

486. The road sub-sector projects were ranked. The reasons for not including other sub-sector 

projects are as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Ports projects are linked to capacity problems or serious deficit of infrastructure and 

are considered a high priority. However, as there are still some alternative port options, 

this issue has been partially covered in Chapter 4. 

Airport projects include the relocation of San Pedro and Placencia airports and some 

works in PGIA. These are linked to safety concerns, air traffic management, and 

international standards. 

Public transport improvements, including organizing better bus services and improving 

their quality, serve high social goals with societal benefits beyond the reduction in 

travel time and vehicle operating costs hard to quantify with an acceptable degree of 

certainty. 

As most of the road programs are network upgrades or improvements they include 

positive and negative externalities and indirect and long term benefits that are hard to 

quantify. Therefore, it is necessary to prioritize them considering other factors, such 

as, social, environmental or climate change resilience impacts. 

5.2.1.1. Multi-criteria Assessment Approach 

487. Road projects with similar purpose and high complementarity were aggregated by 

programs, as shown in the table below. 

Program 

Code 

R1 

R2 

Program Name 

Widening of main corridors 

program -East 


program - South 

Table 5-12: 

Project 

Code 

P1 

P2 

PP23 

PP1 

PP5 

Road programs 

Project Name 

Widening of George Price Highway 

Widening of Hattieville – Boom Highway 

Widening of Hummingbird Highway 

Widening of Southern Highway 

Widening of Jalacte Road 

R3 Orange Walk rural roads program P6 Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - 

Orange Walk 

R4 

R5 

R6 

North-eastern tourist and rural 

roads program 

Maskall - Old Northern Highway 

program 

Bullet Tree Falls - La Democracia 

rural variant program 

PP7 

PP12 

PP16 

PP6 

P10 

PP13 

P12 

P11 

PP8 

PP14 

P13 

Progreso - Copper Bank 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town 




Carmelita - Maskall (Old Northern Highway) 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - X miles 


Bullet Tree Falls - Branch MoUth Park Bridge - Santa 


Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation 

Bridge 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 




Program 

Code 

Program Name 

Project 

Code 

PP27 

Project Name 

Meditation - La Democracia 

R7 South Cayo rural roads program PP18 Barton Creek Farm Road 

PP19 

PP20 



R8 Southern rural roads PP10 San Jose Road 

R9 

R10 

By-passes and urban roads 

program 

Altun Ha -Lamanai-San Felipe 

Corridor 

PP11 

PP9 

PP21 

PP22 

P5 

PP25 

PP28 

P3 

PP4 


Columbia loop) 


Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito 

Chan Chen - San Pedro – (Corozal Bypass) 

San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot 

Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Philip Goldson Highway 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San Felipe 

R11 Belize City external bypass PP17 Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Cahan Road 

R12 

R13 

New North-South Highway by 

Guinea Grass 


Gallon Jug 

PP26 

PP3 

Guinea Grass Highway (Tower Hill -Guinea Grass- 

Shipyard-Lamanai-Belmopan, including connection 

to San Felipe Road) 

Gallon Jug Highway (Blue Creek- Gallon Jug Private 

Reserve-Yalbac -Spanish Lookout) 

488. The following step was to re-group the different indicators for each project by program 

according to the evaluation criteria. Next, the criteria were weighted and scored to obtain 

a ranking of programs. 

5.2.1.2. Evaluation Criteria 

489. The evaluation criteria include the following elements: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Economic evaluation results: the cumulated NPV for the program has been used as 

the main criteria. The highest value was considered to be 10 and the lowest zero. The 

remaining programs were scored proportionally. 

Cost: the total cost in millions of USD has been used; the program with highest cost is 

noted the worst (0) and the other programs are noted from 0 to 10 proportionally to the 

worst note. 

Social impact: the population affected by the program has been measured, regrouping 

direct and indirect beneficiaries under a single indicator (indirect beneficiaries 

count for half of direct beneficiaries). Programs with over 200,000 beneficiaries have 

scored 10; other programs were scored proportionally to that figure. 

Environmental impact: the programs have been penalized in their score depending on 

the percentage of their length that crosses environmentally sensitive areas (including 

communal lands). 

Resilience: the scores of programs are based on their contribution to increasing the 

robustness and the redundancy (on vulnerable and critical sections) of the road 

network, with 10 being the highest score and 2.5 the lowest. 

Robustness is linked to the quality of the standard. Redundancy was scored as 

indicated in the table below and using as reference the vulnerability maps provided in 

Section 2.11. 




Table 5-13: 

Criteria for scoring redundancy 

Condition 

Score 

If the project upgrades the standard in a critical link 2.5 

If the project creates (or upgrades) a redundancy on a critical link 5 

If the project upgrades the standard in a vulnerable area 5 

If in the project creates a redundancy on a non-critical link (no 

alternative) crossing a vulnerable area 

If in the project creates a redundancy on a critical link (no alternative) 

crossing a vulnerable area 

7.5 

10 

490. Two more factors were considered but not included in the prioritization process: 

n 

n 

Project readiness: this describes the stage of progress in project preparation 

(feasibility study, EIA, funding). This dimension is usually included when determining 

short-term investments as investing in a project ready for implementation reduces risks 

of delay and provides transparency over the expenditure. However, this analysis refers 

to medium and long-term projects. As most of the projects identified are in the same 

stage of project preparation, this factor is not useful in this case. 

Attractiveness for private investment: considering the economic evaluation results, it 

seems unlikely that the private sector can be involved in PPP schemes involving their 

construction. There could be potential PPP opportunities for operations and 

maintenance. PPPs or full private projects will be more likely for ports and airport 

projects. For road investments, it is considered that the funds will come from public 

sources or IFIs. 

5.2.1.3. Weighting and Scoring of Evaluation Criteria 

Economic criteria 

491. The following table presents the scoring for each program: 

Table 5-14: 

Scoring of the economic criteria 

Program 

Code 

Program name 

NPV (USD 

million) 

Score 

R1 Widening of main corridors program - East 109.7 10.0 

R10 Altun Ha-Lamanai-San Felipe Corridor -24.7 3.1 

R11 Belize City external bypass -13.7 3.7 

R12 New North South highway through Guinea Grass -59.3 1.4 

R13 New North-South Highway by Gallon Jug -82.9 0.0 

R2 Widening of main corridors program - South 59.9 7.5 

R3 Orange Walk rural roads program -8.7 4.0 

R4 North-eastern tourist and rural roads program -11.4 3.8 

R5 Maskall-Old Northern Highway program -14.4 3.6 

R6 Bullet Tree Falls-La Democracia variant program -29.2 3.2 

R7 South Cayo rural roads program -5.3 4.1 

R8 Southern rural roads -22.3 3.2 

R9 Bypasses and urban roads program -13.7 3.7 

492. The programs for corridor widening are the only ones to score more than the half of the 

total amount of points, which is directly linked to the economic evaluation results. 




Cost criteria 

493. The following table presents the scoring for each program: 

Program 

Table 5-15: 

Scoring of the cost criteria 

Program name 

Cost 

(USD 

million) 

Score 


R10 Altun Ha-Lamanai-San Felipe Corridor 29.5 7.1 

R11 Belize City external bypass 15.5 8.5 

R12 New North South Highway through Guinea Grass 102.2 0 

R13 New North-South Highway by Gallon Jug 98.6 0.4 


R3 Orange Walk rural roads program 33.1 6.8 

R4 North-eastern tourist and rural roads program 14.5 8.6 

R5 Maskall - Old Northern Highway program 17.9 8.2 

R6 Bullet Tree Falls - La Democracia rural variant program 34.9 6.6 

R7 South Cayo rural roads program 7.0 9.3 

R8 Southern rural roads 34.0 6.7 

R9 Bypasses and urban roads program 32.1 6.9 

Social impact criteria 

494. The following table presents the scoring for each program. The programs involving the 

corridors score the highest together with the Bullet Tree Falls – Spanish Lookout – 

Meditation – La Democracia rural variant parallel to the George Price Highway. 

Program 

Table 5-16: 

Scoring of the social impact criteria 

Program name 

Beneficiaries 

(weighted) 

in thousands 

Score 


R10 Altun Ha -Lamanai-San Felipe Corridor 29.91 1.50 

R11 Belize City external bypass 17.80 0.89 

R12 New North South Highway through Guinea Grass 109.50 5.47 

R13 New North-South Highway by Gallon Jug 33.57 1.68 


R3 Orange Walk rural roads program 74.25 3.71 

R4 North-eastern tourist and rural roads program 77.03 3.85 

R5 Maskall - Old Northern Highway program 39.91 2.00 

R6 Bullet Tree Falls - La Democracia rural variant program 151.37 7.57 

R7 South Cayo rural roads program 92.28 4.61 

R8 Southern rural roads 71.44 3.57 

R9 Bypasses and urban roads program 97.93 4.90 

Environmental impact criteria 




495. The following table presents the scoring for each program. Projects identified during the 

environmental assessment as likely to generate high impacts were penalized. 

Program 

Table 5-17: 

Scoring of the environmental impact criteria 

Program name 

% length crossing 

Mayan or 

protected area 

Score 

R1 Widening of main corridors program - East 0% 10.0 

R10 Altun Ha-Lamanai-San Felipe Corridor 29% 7.1 

R11 Belize City external bypass 0% 10.0 

R12 New North South Highway through Guinea Grass 36% 6.4 

R13 New North-South Highway by Gallon Jug 37% 6.3 

R2 Widening of main corridors program - South 0% 10.0 

R3 Orange Walk rural roads program 0% 10.0 

R4 North-eastern tourist and rural roads program 0% 10.0 

R5 Maskall - Old Northern Highway program 0% 10.0 

R6 Bullet Tree Falls - La Democracia rural variant program 0% 10.0 

R7 South Cayo rural roads program 36% 6.4 

R8 Southern rural roads 45% 5.5 

R9 Bypasses and urban roads program 0% 10.0 

Resilience criteria 

496. The following table presents the scoring for each program. Programs providing important 

redundancies such as Maskall - Old Northern Highway program and Bullet Tree Falls - La 

Democracia rural alternative program score relatively high on this criterion, together with 

the new North-South highways and the urban bypasses. 




Table 5-18: 

Scoring of the resilience criteria 

Program Program name Robustness Score 

Redundancy 

and 

vulnerability 

Score 

Total 

score 

R1 


program - East 

very high 10 low 2.5 6.25 

R10 

Altun Ha -Lamanai-San 

Felipe Corridor 

low 2.5 high 5 3.75 

R11 Belize City external bypass low 2.5 average 5 3.75 

R12 

New North South Highway 

through Guinea Grass 

very high 10 very high 10 10 

R13 


Gallon Jug 

very high 10 high 7.5 8.75 

R2 


program - South 

very high 10 low 2.5 6.25 

R3 

Orange Walk rural roads 

program 

average 5 high 7.5 6.25 

R4 

North-eastern tourist and 

rural roads program 

average 5 average 5 5 

R5 



high 7.5 high 7.5 7.5 

R6 


Democracia rural variant average 5 very high 10 7.5 

program 

R7 


program 

average 5 low 2.5 3.75 

R8 Southern rural roads average 5 average 5 5 

R9 

Bypasses and urban roads 

program 

high 7.5 high 7.5 7.5 

Weighting of criteria 

497. Finally, the table below proposes the weighting system used for the different factors: 

Table 5-19: 

Factor 

Weighting criteria 

Weighting 

Economic evaluation 35% 

Cost 10% 

Social impact 25% 

Environmental impact 10% 

Resilience 20% 

Results of Multi-criteria Ranking of Programs 

498. The results of the multi-criteria ranking of programs are summarized in the following table: 

Table 5-20: 

Ranking of programs 

Prog. Program name Econ. Cost Social Env. Resil. Final Rank 

R1 Widening of main corridors program - East 10.0 9.69 10.0 10.0 6.3 9.2 1 

R2 Widening of main corridors program - South 7.5 9.30 6.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 2 

R6 

Bullet Tree Falls - La Democracia rural 


3.2 6.59 7.6 10.0 7.5 6.2 3 

R9 By-passes and urban roads program 3.7 6.86 4.9 10.0 7.5 5.7 4 




R3 Orange Walk rural roads program 4.0 8.44 3.7 10.0 6.25 5.4 5 

R5 Maskall - Old Northern Highway program 3.6 8.25 2.0 10.0 7.5 5.1 6 

R4 

North-eastern tourist and rural roads 

program 

3.8 7.80 3.9 10.0 5 5.1 7 

R7 South Cayo rural roads program 4.1 9.32 4.6 6.4 3.75 4.9 8 

R12 New North-South Highway by Guinea Grass 1.4 0.00 5.5 6.4 10 4.5 9 

R8 Southern rural roads 3.2 6.67 3.6 5.5 5 4.2 10 

R11 Belize City external bypass 3.7 8.48 0.9 10.0 3.75 4.1 11 

R10 Altun Ha -Lamanai-San Felipe Corridor 3.1 7.11 1.5 7.1 3.75 3.6 12 

R13 New North-South Highway by Gallon Jug 0.0 0.36 1.7 6.3 8.75 2.8 13 

499. The programs for widening the main corridors rank first in the multi-criteria due to their 

higher economic and social impact at reasonable cost. The rural road parallel to the 

George Price Highway connecting Bullet Tree Falls with La Democracia through Spanish 

Lookout is classified next, followed by the program of urban projects and the programs of 

rural roads upgrades in Orange Walk and Maskall. 

500. The new investments are penalized due to their cost and their poor score on the economic 

evaluation. Due to this, the North-South Highway through Gallon Jug is ranked last. Whilst 

In its place, the initial option through Guinea Grass was added to the final list of CNTMP 

projects. After stakeholder consultation, the North-South highway through Gallon Jug was 

considered a project of high national significance and defense value. 

5.3 INVESTMENT RATIONALIZATION WITH BUDGET 

CONSTRAINTS 

Methodology 

501. This section introduces a first estimation of the medium and long-term available budget 

for transport infrastructure expenditure and compares it with the potential investments in 

the different sectors. 

502. The method used for obtaining a first estimation of the resources is based on the OECD 

indicator “Transport Infrastructure Investment over GDP”. During recent decades, the 

average ratio of transport infrastructure investment over GDP was about 1% with minor 

variations depending on the country. Developing countries tend to allocate a much bigger 

part of the national economy; ratios higher than 3% and 4% are not rare. The World Bank 

study entitled “Infrastructure Demands in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies” 

analyses infrastructure stock data for the period 1960–2012 from 145 countries to estimate 

the demand for infrastructure services in emerging and developing countries. The paper 

identified that the resource flow required to satisfy new demand while maintaining service 

for existing infrastructure amounted to $836 billion or 6.1% of current gross domestic 

product per year over the period 2014–2020. Actual expenditure showed ratios of mostly 

3%. A similar ratio can be applied to Belize. However, it must be taken into account that, 

in Belize, the GOB budget represents a relatively small part of the national budget due to 

its fiscal system. Therefore, applying 3% over GDP would result in an amount likely to be 

too high. 

503. Recent discussions with the Ministry of Finance revealed that the expenditure is between 

1% and 2% of GDP but that includes both local resources (Cap II Expenditure) and 

external funding (Cap III Expenditure). In the last years, external funding has been high, 

so it is likely that the part for Cap III Expenditure is around 0.5-1% of GDP. The Cap II 




Expenditure also includes resources for routine maintenance, so the budget is not entirely 

available for investment. According to Ministry of Finance, Cap II Expenditure should be 

around 1% in the last years, with margin for increase, at least temporally. 

Financing Resources 

504. Based on the approach explained above, the following scenarios have been taken into 

account for the calculation of available public expenditure for transport infrastructure 

investment: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Cap II Expenditure at 1% of GDP. 

Cap II Expenditure at 1.5% of GDP. 

IFI input (Cap III Expenditure) at 0.5% of GDP as annual average. 

IFI input (Cap III Expenditure) at 0% to estimate only the potential local resources. 

505. The following table presents an estimate of national funding for transport infrastructure 

from 2020 to 2035 ranging from 254 to 381 M USD for the sum of the medium and long 

terms. With IFIs funding, these amounts increase from 381 to 508 M USD. 

Table 5-21 

Estimated available national expenditure for transport infrastructure 

investment from the national budget (in M USD) 

Period At Cap II 1.5% of GDP At Cap II 1% of GDP 

Medium Term (2020-25) 122.5 81.6 

Long Term (2026-35) 258.2 172.1 

Total both periods 380.7 253.8 

506. If the IFI funding is added, the following total values are obtained: 

Table 5-22: 

Estimated available national expenditure for transport infrastructure 

investment including IFI participation (in M USD) 

At Cap II 1% of GDP 

At Cap II 1.5% of GDP 

Without IFI funding 253.83 380.74 

With IFI funding 380.74 507.66 

Financing Programming by Mode of Transport 

507. The estimation of required public and private expenditure for transport infrastructure by 

sector is presented in the following table: 




Table 5-23: 

Estimated required expenditure for transport infrastructure investment 

(USD million) 

Sector 

Public sector 

Investment (M 

USD) 

Private sector 

Investment (M 

USD) 

Road investments 316.7 0.0 

Comments 


roads to road safety standards 21.4 

Potentially funded by IFI 


Improvements in road 

roads to climate change 21.4 

design 

Roads maintenance 180.0 Full network considered 

Sub-total 539.6 0.0 

Ports investments 0.0 

Includes a participation in 

180.0 dredging 


9.0 Water taxi piers 

Airport projects 38.0 84.0 

Logistics 10.9 0.0 Potentially funded by IFI 

Total 588.5 273.0 

508. The cost estimates have considered the following: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

All road programs were considered, except the project North-South Highway through 

Gallon Jug. 

The roads projects do not include land acquisition. 

The budget for maintenance is for the period 2020-2035 and is for the totality of the 

network. It includes 25 M USD of additional maintenance costs due to new road 

investments. 

Provisions for better rural road designs more adapted to road safety standards and 

climate change have been included. 

The rolling out of the national safety program proposed for the short term will likely 

extend to the medium and long term. Such eventuality has not been considered in the 

cost estimation. 

Ports expenditure assumes that all investments will be private. Access roads for ports 

are included in the investment cost. 

Airport expenditure assumes that PGIA extension will be private and the relocation of 

San Pedro and Placencia airports funded with public funds. Such estimate does not 

include any provision for the acquisition of the assets of the unfinished airport in 

Placencia. 

509. Excluding maintenance of roads, the total amounts to USD 408.7, which is reachable at 

CAP II of 1.5% of GDP and IFI funding of less than 0.15% of GDP, or a combination 

thereof. 

510. When maintenance costs are added, what can be seen is that even in an optimistic 

scenario (1.5% of GDP for Cap II and 0.5% of GDP of IFI funding) there would be a gap 

of about 80 M USD to implement the master plan, including road maintenance. 

511. It is recommended not to reduce roads maintenance. Alternatives to this could be the 

following: 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Dropping some of the roads programs with low scores. For instance, postponing the 

North-South Guinea Grass Highway would save about 100 M USD. It is a project that 

we consider important to increase the country’s cohesion, but the implementation of 

the best-ranked programs is a higher priority (as maintenance). 

Strategically mobilizing funds (grants and financing) sourced from IFIs up to 1% of 

GDP could be an option. The total amount needed would be of roughly 630 M USD. It 

would be necessary to adequately justify the projects that would receive IFI funding. 

Highly ranked road programs, airport projects and logistic programs at the borders 

could be good targets for IFI funding. 

Increase the CAP II funding. A GDP increase of 0.3% to 1.8% would suffice to cover 

the funding gap. 

Use additional sources for road maintenance funding, such as, an additional GoB 

budget line and other sources of funding, such as toll road collection. Initial estimates 

indicate that seven toll location booths along the main highways could generate net 

revenues (deducting collection expenses) of about USD 110 million between 2020 and 

2035, enough to cover for the maintenance of these main highways. 

Participation of the private sector in roads investment and maintenance can be 

explored. Most of the opportunities will appear for operations and maintenance on the 

major corridors. 

A combination of the above solutions. 




SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM 

ACTION PLANS 


512. This Chapter presents the measures and infrastructure projects proposed for the short, 

medium and long terms for each transport sub-sector. It starts with a recap of the shortterm 

measures proposed in precedent reports and it continues with the presentation of 

the investment programs and soft measures. This is followed by the detailed explanation 

of the measures proposed for the medium and long terms. 

513. The measures have been classified in three time-horizons according to the following 

criteria: 

n Short term: actions that should be implemented in 2-3 years, not later than 2020. 

These actions aim at solving urgent issues of the transport system or at building the 

institutional capacity required to implement more complex actions proposed for 

subsequent time-horizons. According to the Terms of Reference of the study, these 

actions should satisfy two conditions; 

n (i) be able to be implemented quickly; and 

n (ii) have high impact in addressing some of the major problems of the passenger and 

cargo transport system in the short term. 

n Medium term: actions to be implemented by 2025. Those require longer preparation 

periods and may be costlier, and even have several other actions as prerequisites. 

Together with the short-term actions, they are crucial for the future development of the 

transport sector. 

n Long term: these actions have 2035 as a time-horizon. Their implementation may be 

less urgent, their impact lower or, on the contrary, they may require that many other 

actions are implemented prior to them. In any case, these are suggestions for 

investments or regulatory changes in the long term. The normal practice would be to 

update the master plan around 2025-2028 and re-assess the measures proposed for 

the long term to verify whether they are still relevant or not. 

514. In addition, according to the TOR, it is required that “the action plan will include: an 

agenda; responsible agencies/entities; financing mechanisms; costs of the action plan 

itself; and expected outputs, outcomes and impact indicators”. To respond to this 

requirement, the last section of the chapter summarizes, in a table, all the actions of the 

master plan with the abovementioned information. 

6.2 SUMMARY OF THE MEASURES PROPOSED FOR THE SHORT 

TERM 

515. The Short-Term Action Plan measures are mostly considered as already approved and 

implemented by 2020 with minor exceptions, such as capacity-building programs that will 

continue over time. The border post at Jalacte depends on the negotiations with 

Guatemala. As a reminder, they are briefly described: 




Roads 

516. Short-term actions for roads cover a wide range of interventions. 

517. On infrastructure development, the proposals are cautious: less than 11 miles of new 

roads and three new bridges. These small sections are proposed to connect agricultural 

and tourist areas (mainly Spanish Lookout; Meditation and Crooked Tree) to the primary 

network, with paved roads that provide an alternative access during floods: 

n 

Crooked Tree – Philip Goldson Highway (3.7 miles). 

n Baking Pot (George Price Highway) – Toward Spanish Lookout with new bridge (2.4 

miles). 

n Cotton Tree (George Price Highway) – More Tomorrow – Meditation (Santander) with 

new bridge (4.7 miles). 

n Branch MoUth Park Bridge connecting San Ignacio to Santa Familia. 

518. On maintenance: an improvement of the current road maintenance program to provide full 

operational service is proposed, inclusive of horizontal signs, vertical furniture and major 

bridge maintenance in the budget distribution, and upgrade maintenance software to HDM 

– 4 Version 2 or its latest version. 

519. Bridges replacement program: Thirteen (13) single-lane bridges of the primary highway 

network and six (6) of the secondary road network to be replaced by two-lane bridges. 

520. Road safety is a major element of the short-term actions, with the replication of the Road 

Safety Program implemented in the George Price Highway to the rest of the primary 

highway network. It includes better signals for speed bumps and the replacement of some 

of them by logarithmic lines and road studs. This is an action with important financial 

requirements for which IFI support is crucial and in case of financial constraints, the 

program should be implemented at least in the Philip Goldson Highway, as this road 

concentrates a high number of fatalities. 

521. On regulations and capacity building: a new manual of standards should be prepared with 

the inclusion of new construction methods adapted to climate change. A Technical 

Assistance to finalize the draft regulations of vehicle’s weights and measures should be 

appointed and it will help to identify the locations for weighbridge’s implementation to 

monitor the overloads. In addition, a scholarship program to identify future staff for MoW 

and MoT shall be designed, in particular for very specific profiles that will be essential for 

the activities of those Ministries. 

522. Finally, as a PPP law will be drafted in the next months, it is proposed to explore the 

options for a pilot PPP (for operations and maintenance) on the future paved Manatee 

road. 


523. Measures on public transport for the short term, focus on data collection and management, 

building capacity and regulatory reforms. 

524. The establishment of a National Belize Motor Vehicle Registration and Licensing System 

is a key action of the short-term action plan. Building a national registry is a basic step to 

generate data enabling the MoT to monitor and analyze the evolution of the transport 

sector. Moreover, it will be the first step for a Transport Information System proposed for 

the Medium and Long Terms. 




525. Reform of the public bus services will pay particular attention on the issuance of public 

transport permits. The goal is to balance supply and demand, and for that, a revision of 

the routes is required. This will be followed by changes in the requirements to obtain a 

transport permit, with incentives for operators that will concentrate to create bigger 

companies. 

526. Linked to this reform, a new inter-city bus terminal is under preparation for Belize City, 

exploring PPP financial structuring. In addition, regarding infrastructure, developing intercity 

bus stops and enforcing their usage was suggested to improve the quality of service 

of buses and increase road safety. 

Ports and Inland Waterways 

527. In parallel to the ports reform and the capacity building to BPA, another action for the short 

term is to start a reform for stevedoring services. During the current project, in the baseline 

stage, it was identified that stevedoring costs in the Port of Belize were particularly high 

compared to other ports in Central America and the Caribbean. The targets of this reform 

are to agree with the stevedores on a plan to progressively reduce the number of members 

of the gangs and increase the transparency of the profession’s access process. Being a 

sensitive sector, it will be unlikely to implement it entirely in the short term. 

528. Regarding both ports, the Port of Belize, Ltd. should develop a comprehensive strategy 

including feasibility studies of the final development options selected for the Port of Belize, 

after the approval of the Master Plan. As presented later, there are different configurations 

of freight and cruise terminals that could be developed. Depending on the selected option, 

part of past studies could be used to accelerate project preparation. In any case, the 

studies should be undertaken at the earliest to ensure that the projects will be 

implemented by 2025 or sooner. 

529. For the Port of Big Creek actions supporting the development of new market opportunities 

were suggested, such as, the construction of a LPG Terminal. The goal was to help them 

to increase their revenue for obtaining better financial conditions to implement the 

dredging project of the access channel to 11 meters of draught. Apparently, the Big Creek 

Group already signed the financial agreement and would be ready to launch the project 

this year. 

530. A recurrent topic during this study was about the potential for inland waterways transport 

(IWT). The main finding was that for most of the products, the road transport distances 

are low enough to be very competitive against most of the multi-modal alternatives that 

would include IWT. Even in the case of sugar transport only using IWT, barge operations 

entail long detention times of the OGV hence being much less competitive than road 

transport using a bulk facility at port to store the product. This said, another major issue 

was that an inventory of inland waterways in Belize does not exist. It is therefore, not 

possible, to explore the potential of other rivers for transport. Furthermore, even if for 

freight, IWT in Belize does not seem attractive.There is still potential for passenger 

transport, for instance, to access to tourist locations. Therefore, it is proposed to prepare 

an inventory of inland waterways in Belize. 

Air Transport 

531. The short-term actions for aviation focus on three main aspects. 

532. At the institutional level, a restructuring of the Regulatory Oversight of the Civil Aviation 

Sector is needed. This reform suggests reviewing the roles and responsibilities of the 

Belize Department of Civil Aviation and the Belize Airports Authority, with the view to align, 

as much as possible, to the international best practices proposed by ICAO. Regarding the 




status of the BDCA, at least in the short and medium term, it should continue as a division 

of the Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation and not a statutory body. However, the 

requests of ICAO for hiring and training more air controllers should be considered as 

urgent by the GOB; an air controller requires several years to become operational so just 

a few years of insufficient planning may result in serious air safety risks due to the shortage 

of professionals. 

533. Second, in terms of airport improvements on the short term, some actions were proposed 

to address shortcomings in the security arrangements at the regional aerodromes, X-ray 

machines, as well as, the upgrade of the runway at Caye Caulker. 

534. Third, in the planning stage, three airport studies shall be developed in the next years: 

n 

n 

n 

A master plan for the PGIA, covering potential extensions of taxiways, apron, terminals 

and operating hours (this is introduced in the medium-term actions), managed by 

BACC. 

A master plan for the relocation of the airport of San Pedro, managed by BAA. 

A master plan for the relocation of the airport of Placencia, managed by BAA. 

535. These studies are linked to the medium-term actions proposed. To implement the projects 

by 2025, the planning studies should be carried out in the short term. 

536. Finally, there is a conditional action related to the review of some of the terms of the 

Concession Agreement between the Belize Airports Authority and the Belize Airport 

Concession Company. Areas where the agreement can be improved include: 

n 

n 

The concessionaire has Right of First Refusal for any international air traffic route that 

could be developed in the country. 

The concessionaire does not seem to have any obligation of investment in the 

contract. Usually, it is agreed between private and public sectors to establish 

thresholds of traffic or quality of service above which the concessionaire must carry 

out certain investments. It is a way to ensure that the private operator will continue to 

develop the infrastructure and support the economic development of the country. 

537. Under this situation, the GOB has no margin of action to develop international air transport. 

An agreement should be reached with BACC, preferably to negotiate a certain number of 

investments on PGIA to increase the capacity of the airport. If this agreement was not 

possible, the clause introducing Right of First Refusal should be amended. 

Logistics and Trade Facilitation 

538. For logistics and trade facilitation, the main short-term measure is to establish the 

minimum infrastructure for border control in the Jalacte border crossing. The reason is 

that today there is an informal traffic crossing at the border. Until an official agreement 

with Guatemala for establishing an official POE. It would be necessary so as to maintain 

a way to keep some control on the goods and people crossing the border illegally. 

6.3 MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM ACTION PLAN 

Summary of Projects, Measures and Overall Investments 

539. In this first part of this section, the investments by mode and implementation period are 

presented. Next, the soft measures that will be detailed in the long term are listed as well 

with their implementation period. Finally, each measure will be explained following the 




structure of rationale, activities, institutional issues, financial issues, implementation and 

monitoring. 

6.3.1.1. Infrastructure projects 

540. The following two tables summarize the investment plan, with their costs by project and 

implementation schedule. Both tables detail the number of project sheet for every project. 

In addition, a project sheet has been prepared for each project (see Annex 4). 

Table 6-1: 

Prog. 

Code 

R1 

R2 

R6 

R9 

R3 

R5 

R4 

R7 

R8 

R10 

R11 

Road projects investments (Estimated investment costs in M USD) 

Project Cost 

Type Program Name Project Name 

Sheet 2025 

Widening of main Widening of George Price Highway 1 2.8 

Shoulders & Road 

corridors Widening of Hattieville – Boom 

Safety 

2 0.4 

program -East Highway 

Widening of main Widening of Hummingbird Highway 11 2.8 


corridors Widening of Southern Highway 10 3.5 

Safety 

program - South Widening of Jalacte Road 14 0.8 

Adding Road 

Sections & Bridges 

to the National 

Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Adding Road 



Road Network 

Bullet Tree Falls - 

La Democracia 

rural variant 

program 

By-passes and 

urban roads 

program 

Orange Walk 

rural roads 

program 

Maskall - Old 

Northern 

Highway 

program 

North-eastern 

tourist and rural 

roads program 

South Cayo rural 

roads program 

Southern rural 

roads 

Altun Ha - 

Lamanai-San 

Felipe Corridor 

Belize City 

external bypass 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch MoUth 

Park Bridge - Santa Familia - 


20 4.5 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace 

- Meditation Bridge- La Democracia 

19 20.0 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 6 4.5 

Chan Chen - San Pedro – (Corozal 

Bypass) 

4 20.1 

San Pedro - Caribbean Queen 

Depot 

31 3.6 

Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 8.5 

Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - 

San Estevan - Orange Walk 

5 13.0 

Progreso - Copper Bank 16 3.0 

Cost 

2035 

Maskall - Bomba 7 2.0 

Carmelita - Maskall (old northern 

highway) 

18 11.0 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - 

X miles 

9 5.0 

Maskall - Nago Bank 8 1.0 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town 17 7.8 

Chunox - Copper Bank 24 6.1 

Chunox - Sarteneja 15 8.5 

Barton Creek Farm Road 26 2.0 

Seven Mile Farm Road 27 1.0 

Tea Kettle Farm Road 28 4.0 

San Jose Road 22 6.0 

San Miguel Road (Silver Creek 

Road - San Pedro Columbia loop) 

23 4.5 

Red Bank Village Road 21 2.5 

Jacintoville – Santa Ana - 

Barranco 

29 8.5 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San 

Benito 

30 12.5 

Lucky Strike (Altun ha) - Philip 

Goldson highway 

3 16.0 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San 

Felipe 

13 13.1 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls 

- Jhin Cahan road 

25 15.5 




Prog. 

Code 

R12 

Type Program Name Project Name 

Adding Road 



Road Network 


Highway by 

Guinea Grass 

Guinea Grass Highway (Tower Hill 

-Guinea grass-Shipyard-Lamanai- 

Belmopan, including connection to 

San Felipe road) 

Project 

Sheet 

Cost 

2025 

Cost 

2035 

12 102.2 

Total by period (USD million) 106.4 210.3 

541. For rural roads programs, an additional extra cost of 30% should be added to integrate 

better road designs for climate change adaptation (mainly drainages) and road safety. 

This applies to programs R3, R4, R5, R6, R7, R8 and R11. 

Table 6-2: 

Project 

Other infrastructure projects investments 

Project 

Sheet 


(M USD) 

2025 2035 

Build yards and workshops for parking and bus maintenance 46 2.1 

Renew / build bus terminals in all main cities 2nd phase: Belize 

City – Belmopan – San Ignacio 47 1.7 

Renew / build bus terminals in all main cities: 3rd phase Belize City 

– Orange Walk – Corozal 48 1.7 

Renew / build bus terminals in all main cities 4th phase Belize City 

– Dangriga – Placencia – Punta Gorda 49 1.4 

Water taxis development program 50 2.2 

Cruise Terminal in the Port of Magical Belize 51 150.0 

Second multi-purpose berth for the Port of Belize 52 18.3 

PGIA capacity increase program (taxiway, lighting, terminal) 53 39.0 45 

Relocation of San Pedro Airport 54 27.0 

Relocation of Placencia Airport 55 8.0 

Jalacte Border Post designed following regular standards 56 6.0 

Modernization of Border Posts (Santa Elena selected for pilot 

program) 57 4.925 

Total 255.9 51.3 

542. Finally, the following table provide the full list of projects sorted by possible funding source: 

Table 6-3: 

Projects by funding source (amounts in M USD) 

Project Public/IFI Private/PPP 

Widening of George Price Highway 2.8 

Widening of Hattieville – Boom Highway 0.4 

Widening of Hummingbird Highway 2.8 

Widening of Southern Highway 3.5 

Widening of Jalacte road 0.8 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch MoUth Park Bridge - Santa Familia - Spanish 

Lookout 4.5 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation Bridge- La Democracia 20.0 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 4.5 

Chan Chen - San Pedro – (Corozal Bypass) 20.1 

San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot 3.6 

Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 8.5 

Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - Orange Walk 13.0 




Project Public/IFI Private/PPP 

Progreso - Copper Bank 3.0 

Maskall - Bomba 2.0 

Carmelita - Maskall (Old Northern Highway) 11.0 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - X miles 5.0 

Maskall - Nago Bank 1.0 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town 7.8 

Chunox - Copper Bank 6.1 

Chunox - Sarteneja 8.5 

Barton Creek Farm Road 2.0 

Seven Mile Farm Road 1.0 

Tea Kettle Farm Road 4.0 

Guinea Grass Highway (Tower Hill -Guinea Grass-Shipyard-Lamanai- 

Belmopan, including connection to San Felipe Road) 102.2 

San Jose Road 6.0 

San Miguel Road (Silver Creek Road - San Pedro Columbia loop) 4.5 

Red Bank Village Road 2.5 

Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco 8.5 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito 12.5 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Philip Goldson Highway 16.0 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San Felipe 13.1 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Cahan road 15.5 

Build yards and workshops for parking and bus maintenance 2.1 

Renew / build bus terminals in all main cities 2nd phase: Belize City – 

Belmopan – San Ignacio 1.7 

Renew / build bus terminals in all main cities: 3rd phase Belize City – 

Orange Walk – Corozal 1.7 

Renewe/ build bus terminals in all main cities 4rd phase Belize City – Dangriga – 

Placencia – Punta Gorda 1.4 

Water taxis development program 2.2 

Cruise Terminal in the Port of Magical Belize 150.0 

Second multi-purpose berth for the Port of Belize 30.0 

PGIA capacity increase program (taxiway, lighting, terminal) 84.0 

Relocation of San Pedro Airport 27.0 

Relocation of Placencia Airport 8.0 

Jalacte Border Post designed following regular standards 6.0 

Modernization of Border Posts (Santa Elena selected for pilot program) 4.9 

Total 362.7 273.0 

543. A provision of 42.6 M USD should be added to improve road designs for climate change 

adaptation and road safety. The budget for maintenance (180 M USD) is not included in 

the table above. 

6.3.1.2. Soft measures 

544. The following table summarizes the soft measures proposals, governance improvement 

and capacity building programs. These are described in the following sections. 




Table 6-4: 

Projects by funding source (amounts in M USD) 

Soft measure Main component 2025 2035 

Designing Jalacte Border Post following regular 

standards 

Professionalizing the road freight transport sector 

Regulating and enforcing weight limits and dimensions 

of cargo vehicles 

Generating logistics statistics 

Logistics / freight 

transport 


transport 


transport 


transport 

x 

x 

x 

x 

Designing Border crossing infrastructure according to 

the parameters of the regional strategy for Coordinated 

Border Management 

Implementing freight transport review centers 

Renewing Trucks fleet 

Eliminating of cargo change to Belizean trucks at the 

border with Mexico and Guatemala 

Optimizing trade facilitation processes 


transport 


transport 


transport 


transport 


transport 

x 

x 

x 

x 

x 

Implementing a Capacity Building Program on Data 

Collection 

Modernizing Second stage of the modernization of the 

Public Bus Service 

Developing some public transport routes to touristic 

attractions 

Implementing a Capacity building program to BPA on 

water taxi management (part of water taxi improvement 

program) 

Roads 



Public transport / 

Water taxi 

x 

x 

x 

x 

Roads Projects and Measures 


545. Based on the findings presented in the Base Line Report, of meetings held with the 

Ministry of Work (MoW), the proposals for the Short – Term Action Plan, the proposals for 

the Medium – Term Action Plan and the other stakeholders in the road sector, the following 

Long – Term Action Plans are proposed: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Improving Road Maintenance Program and Increasing Maintenance Budget according 

to New Network. 

Adding Road Sections & Bridges to the National Road Network. 

Increasing Shoulders Width in Main Highways. 

Replacing Single Lane Bridges with Dual-Lane ones. 

Implementing Capacity Building Program on Data Collection. 




6.3.2.2. Improving Road Maintenance Program 

Background 

546. The MoW Road Maintenance Program 27 includes the following activities in each of the 

seven-main highways. 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Control vegetation. 

Clean and reshape ditches. 

Clean culverts. 

Maintain roadside furniture. 

Conduct minor bridge repairs. 

Patch potholes. 

Repair pavements. 

Grade shoulders. 

Rationale / Problem Description 

547. One of the main problems described by the MoW Chief Engineer and the CEO is the lack 

of a comprehensive maintenance program. Every year the MoW technicians propose the 

highest maintenance standard requirements for roads and highways. However, the MoW 

only approves an annual budget increase in line with inflation. This increase ignores the 

extension of the network and the improvement of technology for maintenance. 

548. With the new sections added to the network, the international requirements for safety and 

the widening considered, the maintenance budget is below the requirement for 

comprehensive maintenance. To have the full capacity of the paved roads with a LOS of 

B or higher, the IRR should be lower than 4 m/km, and the maintenance resources should 

be allocated accordingly to ensure the optimal maintenance program below described. 

Action Description 

549. As a first course of action, each new road must be considered separately according to the 

route it covers. The tasks considered for the optimal maintenance program in the Short – 

Term Action Plan, should be part of the maintenance program for the Medium and Long 

– Term Action Plan. 

550. The maintenance program should consider the new widened surface and lay-bys for 

buses. 

551. A yearly budget increase is proposed along with the increase in area of the existing roads 

(widening), and with the increase of new road miles, as below described. 

Financial Dimensions 

552. The maintenance program will require a budget for each year as follows: 

27 

Based on Discussion with MoW Chief Engineer, 




Table 6-5: 


Action Plan (2021 – 2025) 

Highway 

Proposed Optimal Maintenance Budget Required (USD) 

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

George Price $ 459,087 $ 347,577 $ 424,410 $ 402,633 $ 400,653 

Hattieville - Boom $ 69,956 $ 61,113 $ 69,726 $ 60,552 $ 69,960 

Philip SW Goldson $ 536,658 $ 426,794 $ 501,198 $ 500,251 $ 483,309 

OWT Bypass $ 9,787 $ 4,217 $ 13,948 $ 7,574 $ 6,432 

Hummingbird $ 301,397 $ 271,015 $ 342,378 $ 310,288 $ 266,518 

Southern $ 447,846 $ 340,625 $ 437,765 $ 413,814 $ 380,579 

Total $ 1,824,731 $ 1,451,340 $ 1,789,426 $ 1,695,112 $ 1,607,451 


Table 6-6: 


Action Plan (2026 – 2030) 

Highway 


2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 

George Price $ 402,633 $ 493,263 $ 409,675 $ 459,087 $ 402,633 



OWT Bypass $ 7,574 $ 9,212 $ 8,955 $ 9,791 $ 7,574 

Hummingbird $ 307,814 $ 342,945 $ 270,458 $ 301,405 $ 310,294 

Southern $ 407,331 $ 533,666 $ 448,363 $ 454,333 $ 407,331 

Total $ 1,675,400 $ 1,946,895 $ 1,628,484 $ 1,831,242 $ 1,688,641 


Table 6-7: 


Action Plan (2031 – 2035) 

Highway 


2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

George Price $ 365,976 $ 406,011 $ 459,087 $ 344,199 $ 489,885 



OWT Bypass $ 5,857 $ 7,574 $ 14,531 $ 4,217 $ 9,216 

Hummingbird $ 307,502 $ 308,381 $ 301,406 $ 270,460 $ 342,385 

Southern $ 364,017 $ 407,894 $ 454,335 $ 346,545 $ 533,107 

Total $ 1,555,846 $ 1,681,885 $ 1,841,083 $ 1,451,368 $ 1,940,443 


Table 6-8: 

Road Maintenance Budget by Period, Optimal Program (US$), 

Medium, Long – Term Action (2021 – 2025) 

Period Periodicity 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

Routine Every year $1,291,969 $1,352,374 $1,352,374 $1,352,374 $1,291,969 

Periodic Every 2 to 5years $ 454,077 $ 20,280 $ 358,365 $ 264,050 $ 236,793 

Major 

Every 8 years/ as 

required divided 

by sections 

$ 78,685 $ 78,686 $ 78,687 $ 78,688 $ 78,689 

Total $1,824,731 $1,451,340 $1,789,426 $1,695,112 $1,607,451 





Table 6-9: 


Long – Term Action (2026 – 2030) 




Major 


required divided by 

sections 

$ 78,690 $ 245,984 $ 245,985 $ 78,693 $ 78,694 

Total $1,675,400 $1,946,895 $1,628,484 $1,831,242 $1,688,641 


Table 6-10: 


Long – Term Action (2031 – 2035) 




Major 


required divided by 

sections 

$ 78,695 $ 78,696 $ 78,697 $ 78,698 $ 245,992 

Total $1,555,846 $1,681,885 $1,841,083 $1,451,368 $1,940,443 


Institutional Dimensions 

553. It is suggested that a combined undertaking of maintenance activities be provided by MoW 

and by private companies. According to the last discussions with MoW, their strategy is to 

evolve towards an agency focused on supervising private contractors in charge of the 

maintenance. This would be a long-term target but there will be a transition period, around 

the medium term of the master plan, in which maintenance activities will be carried out by 

both public and private sector. One stated reason for this institutional change is the lack 

of staff required to manage maintenance activities directly. 

554. A possible institutional arrangement for road maintenance is the one followed in Mexico, 

with packages of roads maintenance for the private sector to bid. According to the SCT 

(Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes), in 2011, Mexico established the Multi- 

Annual Roads Conservation Contracts to raise pavement level to optimal level, manage 

the resources more efficiently, raise the LOS, and lower VOC. The SCT split the contracts 

in 80 different groups in a mix of rural roads and highways and in three levels of 

investment. This allowed the government to do integral payments for road maintenance 

and to accomplish the road maintenance standards without a user’s toll. As result, Mexico 

went from position 62 in 2011 to 50 in 2012 for “Roads Quality” according to the 

competitiveness ranking of the World Economic Forum (WEF). 

Time Dimensions 

555. The development of the tasks as scheduled should be considered for an indeterminate 

period until new technology or a road upgrade is required. 




Monitoring Dimensions 

556. Detailed infrastructure monitoring needs to be performed to preserve the best conditions 

on roads and identify precautionary actions, to avoid major damage. Currently, the review 

and adjustment of the maintenance program is a routine task within the MoW duties. 

Currently for monitoring purposes, the MoW divides Belize into three (3) zones: 

n 

n 

n 

North: Orange Walk, Corozal. 

Center: Belize, Cayo. 

South: Stann Creek, Toledo. 

557. Each zone has a designated Zone Engineer who manages District Technical Supervisors 

(DTS) assigned per District. The qualifications for the District Technical Supervisors is a 

Higher National Diploma or three (3) years of experience, and the DTS is responsible for 

the monitoring of the district’s roads. 

558. There is also a “workshop for planning”, located in Belmopan MoW headquarters. The 

working group is composed of: 

n 

n 

Five (5) Civil Engineers (Bachelor’s Degree). 

Three (3) Civil Engineers (Master’s Degree). 

559. The MoW has a Management Information System (MIS), which focuses on monitoring and 

updating road inventory, along with district personnel. 

Objective 

560. Monitoring is to be based on observation, measuring, reporting and evaluation of the 

physical conditions for each section along all roads. Data must be recorded to track 

historic results, which will be the basis for future investment decision-making and 

maintenance program adjustments. 

Proposals 

561. According to the current monitoring team considered for the Short – Term Action Plan, the 

Consultant suggests the following adjustments: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Increase the level of studies required for the staff. 

Develop a Material Laboratory for routine and functional testing of asphalt. 

Survey the surface of the roads to measure the International Roughness Ratio (IRR). 

Gather samples of pavements to determine the condition of the structure, if the IRR is 

lower than 4. 

Keep improving the maintenance program, according to the results presented. 

6.3.2.3. Bridges Replacement Program 


562. Various road sections, particularly in the southern highways, include single lane narrow 

bridges on a two-lane road system. This setup slows traffic on the approaches to the 

bridges; and creates road safety risk. Therefore, there is a need to upgrade all bridges 

on the primary highways to two lanes. 




Background 

563. Based on the in-field review, some bridges do not have a consistent width with the 

highways. As part of the Short- Term Action Plan, the replacement of thirteen (13) bridges 

was proposed for the Primary Network and six (6) for the Secondary Network. 


Medium - Term 

564. As part of this second phase of bridge replacement, three (3) bridges (see Table below) 

are proposed for the Primary Network during the Medium-Term Action Plan: 

Bridge 

Name 

Silver Creek 

1 

Mamayial 

Curve* 

Table 6-11: 

Highway 

Mile 35.1Hummingbird 

Hwy 

Mile 60, Philip 

Goldson Hwy 

MoW Bridge Replacement, Primary Network, Medium–Term Action 

Plan 

Current 

Width (ft) 

Span 

(ft) 

Year for 

Replacement 

18 190 2021 

Floodable 218 2024 

Mow Priority 

Substandard Geometry - OFID 

to fund replacement structure. 

Culvert needs to be replaced 

with a Bridge or multiple Box 

Culverts to enhance hydraulic 

capacity. CDB/UKAID Funds 

to be used 

Joe Taylor Southern Highway Floodable NA 2025 Poor Condition/ One Lane 

Mamayial Curve: Currently a culvert, needs to be replaced with a bridge to increase hydraulic capacity. 

565. Additionally, the following bridge is proposed for the Secondary Network during the 

Medium-Term Action Plan: 

Bridge Name 

Calla Creek 

Cable Bridge 

Table 6-12: 

Highway 

Mile 2.75, Calla Creek 

Road, Cayo Dist. 


MoW Bridge Replacement, Secondary Network, Medium–Term 

Action Plan 

Current 

Width (ft.) 

Span 

(ft) 

Year for 

Replacement 

6 NA 2024 

Mow Priority 

Needs high-level two-lane 

bridge to allow vehicular 

crossing. 

Long-Term 

566. As part of this third phase of bridge replacement, the next four (4) bridges are proposed 

to increase their width and hydraulic capacity for the Primary Network during the Long– 

Term Action Plan: 




Table 6-13: 

Bridge Name 

Small Bridge entering 

Benque Viejo - mile 74 

MoUnt Pleasant 

Hector Creek Bridge - 

Hattieville 

MoW Bridge Replacement, Primary Network, Long–Term Action Plan 

Highway 

Mile 74, George 

Price Hwy 

Mile 46, George 

Price Hwy 

Mile 15.3, George 

Price Hwy 

Current 

Width (ft.) 

Span 

(ft) 

Year for 

Replacement 

20 NA 2027 

32 105 2027 

31.6 95 2027 

Little Golden Stream Southern Highway Floodable NA 2030 Flood prone 

Jacintoville Bridge 

(Intersection of S/Hwy & 

Santa Anna Road) 

Southern Highway Floodable NA 2030 


Mow Priority 

Substandard geometric width (1 

1/2 lane) near junction approach 

to Benque. 

Replacement of existing bridge. 

Needs elevated and enhance 

hydraulic capacity since it’s on a 

major evacuation route. 

Hydraulic Capacity needs to be 

enhanced. Bridge, subject to 

flooding and when on a major 

evacuation route. 

Flood Prone of recent 

567. Additionally, the following bridges are proposed for the Secondary Network during the 

Long-Term Action Plan to increase their hydraulic capacity: 

Table 6-14: 

Bridge Name 

Branch MoUth Cable 

Bridge 

Iguana Creek Bridge 

MoW Bridge Replacement, Secondary Network, Long – Term Action 

Plan 

Highway 

Mile 2.7, BranchMoUth 

Road, Cayo Dist. 

Mile 0.4 Iguana Creek 

Road 

Mile 8.2, More 

Old More Tomorrow 

Tomorrow Road 


Current 

Width 

(ft.) 

Span 

(ft) 

Year for 

Replacement 

6 NA 2030 

26 NA 2030 

17 NA 2030 

Mow Priority 

Needs high-level two-lane bridge to 

allow vehicular crossing. No funding 

identified yet 

High level bridge replacement 

required to enable all-weather 

access to Spanish Lookout. No 

funding has yet been identified. 

Needs to be widen and elevated to 

allow all-weather access. 


568. According to the MoW, the GoB has limited resources to finance the bridge replacement 

program. One possibility is to use IFI financing, such as: 

n 

n 

n 

Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) – provides financing and technical 

assistance grants for social and economic development in Latin America and the 

Caribbean. 

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) – promotes 

economic and social development cooperation in the Latin America and Caribbean 

region. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for International Development 

(OFID) – provides financing to build essential infrastructure, strengthen social services 

delivery and promote productivity, competitiveness and trade. 




n 

n 

n 

European Union Fund (EU Fund) - provides funding for a broad range of projects and 

programs covering areas such as regional & urban development, employment & social 

inclusion, agriculture & rural development, maritime & fisheries policies, research & 

innovation, humanitarian aid. 

Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED) – extends Loans on 

concessionary terms to finance development projects in developing countries 

(currently, part of the MoW investment has been funded by this entity). 

If such funding is not provided, the GoB could consider including the bridges within the 

maintenance packages proposed for the Road Maintenance Program. 


569. The Manual of Standards should establish new bridge dimensions to meet road width 

requirements according to the proposed highway shoulder increases (see Section 6.3.2.4 

below), aligned with the regulation and enforcement of weight and dimension limits of 

freight vehicles (see Section 6.3.6.3). 


570. The construction of the road sections must be developed during the Medium and Long– 

Term Action Plan according to the schedule provided in the Action Plan. 


571. The organizational structure of the MoW routine monitoring tasks was described in the 

previous section. To maintain the bridges’ sub-structure and super-structure, special 

monitoring is required in addition to the routine road’s monitoring. As part of this bridge 

monitoring, the following activities must be performed: 

n 

n 

Testing of bridge insulation systems. 

Investigating damages. 

572. The recommended procedures for bridge inspection are: 

n 

n 

n 

Perform a visual inspection every two (2) years. 

Perform a material testing inspection every eight (8) years. 

To guarantee the capacity of the bridges, a vehicle counting survey should be 

performed in a seven-day continual period, once a year. According to the Highway 

Capacity Manual (HCM) 2010, the LOS should not be lower than B. 

6.3.2.4. Shoulder Increase on Primary Network 

Rationale/ Problem Description 

573. Local regulations require shoulder width of three (3) feet, but this width does not provide 

enough space for a heavy load truck to edge into the shoulders for other vehicles to pass 

at the same time or provide enough safety space for non-motorized transport. 

Background 

574. Widening the main highways is necessary to keep safety measures for drivers, 

pedestrians and cyclists. According to AASHTO Standards, the minimum shoulder should 

be of 4.9 feet (1.5 m) but for added safety, a wider road section is preferred. 





575. It is proposed to widen the current sections of the main highways. As required for the 

current AADT and the composition of the traffic (with more than 17% of freight transport), 

two-way highways with adequate shoulders are required. This would increase safety and 

highway capacity, reduce the operative costs, reduce the probability of accidents when 

light cars pass the heavy trucks and provide a place for pedestrians and bicyclists when 

no sidewalks are available. 

576. The widening proposed should consider two lanes (one per direction) of 11 ft. 6 in each 

(23 ft. total) and shoulders of 6 ft. 6 in each (13 ft. total). The total crown section should 

be of 36 ft. Figure 6-1 shows the proposed cross-section configuration. 

Figure 6-1: 

2-Lane, Highway Cross – Section 


577. The Philip Goldson Highway is already scheduled to be widened in the short term. For 

the medium term, all other main highways should be widened: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

George Price Highway – 79miles 

Hattieville – Boom Highway – 12 miles 

Hummingbird Highway – 79 miles 

Southern Highway – 101 miles 

Jalacte Road – 23 miles 

578. This would align the roads in Belize with roads in the region, allowing more traffic to flow 

easily in the country. 


579. Considering the distance to be developed and according to index prices, the investment 

on widening the sections will include a budget of $US 10.3 million for the Medium-Term, 

considering an index cost of $US 0.035 million/mile. 

580. The costs considered for the lay-by should be additional, as when roads are widened laybys 

should be reconstructed as additional road sections. 




581. To have the full capacity of these roads with a LOS of B or higher, the IRR should be lower 

than 4 m/km. To guarantee that LOS, an additional annual maintenance budget of $US 5 

thousand per mile will be required. (This additional budget has already been considered 

in the maintenance cost estimates for the main highways in the Section 6.3.2.2). 


582. To secure the complete funds for the construction and maintenance of the proposed 

widening program, the MoW must develop a scheme of project financing in coordination 

with the MoED&P. One possibility includes PPP schemes, with the participation of local 

companies, thus reducing the public investment impact. According to the World Bank, and 

lessons learned from other countries, to succeed in the implementation of PPP, the key 

factors should be considered: 

1. Adequate planning of the project; 

2. Detailed revenue and cost estimates; 

3. Consideration of the user’ willingness to pay and communication plan; 

4. Ample feasibility study with the participation of PPP experts; 

5. Compliance with contractual agreement; 

6. Appropriate legal and regulatory framework; 

7. Strengthening MoW and other departments involved in PPP infrastructure project 

implementation and management; 

8. Competitive and transparent procurement; and 

9. Mitigation and flexibility in managing macro-risks. 

583. According to the World Bank the different types of PPP can be classified as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

BOT (Build, Operate and Transfer): When the private sector is responsible for the 

construction, maintenance, and operation for a defined duration and then transfers the 

asset to the government. 

DBFO (Design, Build, Finance and Operate): When the private sector is responsible 

for the design, construction, finance, maintenance, and operation for a period of time 

and then transfers the asset to the government. 

BOO (Build, Own and Operate): When the private sector is responsible for the 

construction, maintenance, and operation but the asset is not returned to the 

government. 

584. Therefore, different mechanisms of payments can be considered for any of the PPP 

schemes as follows: 

n 

n 

User-Fee PPP: This PPP often called “concession” is a contract where the private 

party recovers its investment through a toll charged to the users. In some cases, the 

public authority can share the risk by determining a minimum level of usage and make 

payments to the private party in certain circumstances. 

Availability Based: This scheme considers that the private investor recovers its 

investment by a mechanism of payments by the government of the country considering 

the availability of the service (not the asset). This is also known as PFI (Private Finance 

Initiative) and was developed by the United Kingdom. It has been implemented in 

Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico and South Africa for schools, 

hospitals, prisons, government buildings, rural roads and, most recently, highways and 

has proved that projects have been delivered on time, on budget and are properly 

maintained in the context of constrained resources. Therefore, the government has to 

monitor the assets to guarantee the service is provided at the level accorded and make 

the payment, otherwise the project would have the risk of failure. 




585. Some cases of success can point to the Mexican road’s packages previously mentioned 

and to Chile where, between 1993 and 2001, 21 concessions were awarded starting with 

small projects to test the market. The bidding attracted 77 national and foreign consortia 

and companies. The process was transparent and competitive. As result, a survey of users 

graded the system with 6/7. 

586. All proposals are located within a 100 ft. right-of-way (ROW). Hence, no additional ROW 

is required. For urbanized sections, different designs are required to include pedestrian 

and cyclist friendly paths. 


587. The construction of the road sections should be developed during the Medium-Term and 

Long-Term Action Plan according to the availability of resources, as noted in the table 

below: 

Table 6-15: 

Shoulder Widening, Primary Network, Medium – Term Action Plan 

Highway 

Miles 

Medium - Term 

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

George Price 79 79 miles 

Hattieville-Boom 12 12 miles 

Hummingbird 79 79 miles 

Southern 98 101 miles 

Jalacte 23 23 miles 

TOTAL 337 79 miles 91 miles 101 miles 23 miles 



588. The organizational structure of the MoW routine monitoring tasks was described in the 

Section 6.3.2.2. 

589. For the main highways, additional lab material testing should be done: 

n 

n 

n 

Take samples of the materials used for the shoulders. 

Test materials according to Superpave for HMA. 

Test materials with Los Angeles Abrasive Test. 

590. Weekly counting should be performed once a year on each highway considering a 

minimum of 24/7 Automatic Counting to record the AADT of the roads and evaluate the 

Level of Service. Manual Surveys should be performed at the same period of the 

Automatic Counting for each road. With this monitoring action, the MoW should know 

when to upgrade the roads. 

6.3.2.5. Adding Road Sections & Bridges to the National Road Network 


591. The current road network does not reach the complete developing and production areas 

of the country. This means that to take some products out and transport them to ports, 

producers must take gravel roads having an impact on their vehicle operative costs and 

travel time. The isolation of the areas reduces the investment rural because of the difficulty 




of transporting the farmed products to the markets. The rural communities also experience 

the isolation problem, when having to travel to get food and supplies for their homes or to 

access essential services. Another problem presented by the isolation of areas, is the 

difficulty to evacuate villages when an environmental situation is presented. Considering 

the flooding susceptibility of the country and the lack of road accesses, in case of 

emergency it is near imposible to get out or to take supplies in. 

Background 

592. During the Short-Term Action Plan, new roads were proposed considering the most 

affected zones. For the Medium and Long-Term Action Plan, the rest of the roads 

considered for upgrading are included. In addition to the rural roads, a new main highway 

is presented as part of the plan, to increase the options for traveling in the national 

network. 


593. Figure 6-2 shows the location and road sections of the medium term (orange in the map) 

and long-term (blue in the map) programs which are listed in Table 6-16 and Table 6-17. 

Figure 6-2: 

Medium and Long – Term Proposal 





Table 6-16: 

Programs included for the medium term 

Program 

Number 

Program Name 

Project Name 

Length 

(miles) 

R1 

R2 

R6 

R9 

R3 

R5 

Program 

Number 

R4 

R7 

R12 

R8 

R10 

R11 



East 



South 


Democracia rural 


Bypasses and urban 

roads program 

Orange Walk rural 

roads program 



Table 6-17: 

Program Name 

North-eastern tourist 

and rural roads 

program 


program 


Highway by Guinea 

Grass 


Altun Ha -Lamanai- 

San Felipe Corridor 

Belize City external 

bypass 





Widening of Jalacte road 23 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch MoUth Park Bridge - Santa Familia - 


9 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation Bridge- La 

Democracia 

40 





Chunox - Little Belize - Progreso - San Estevan - Orange Walk 26 



Carmelita - Maskall (Old Northern Highway) 22 




Programs included for the long term 

Project Name 

Length 

(miles) 




Barton Creek Farm Road 4 

Seven Mile Farm Road 2 

Tea Kettle Farm Road 8 

Guinea Grass Highway (Tower Hill -Guinea Grass-Shipyard- 

Lamanai-Belmopan, including connection to San Felipe road) 




Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco 17 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito 25 

Lucky Strike (Altun ha) - Philip Goldson highway 16 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai - San Felipe 22 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - Jhin Chan road 31 


594. Ongoing projects were not highlighted in the map as it is assumed that they have secured 

the funding and will be completed in the short term. Such projects are mainly the following: 

widening and rehabilitation of the Philip Goldson Highway, Caracol Road, Coastal 

Highway, and New Road to PGIA. Those projects were integrated in the model as part of 

the Base case road network. 

56 




595. Figure 6-2 also shows (in green) two projects identified by stakeholders as of strategic 

importance, to give access to national security sensitive areas to the west of the country: 

n North-South Highway via Gallon Jug. This highway would provide improved 

connectivity to Orange Walk District and would provide a highway connection to the 

western border. Current traffic is low and the beneficiary population is also low. 

Investment cost is estimated close to USD 100 million. 

n Caracol – Southern Highway. Going through the Maya MoUntains, this highway would 

provide a unique connection between Toledo District and the fertile north side of Cayo 

District, creating an important redundancy, and would provide a highway connection 

to the southwestern border. Current traffic is very low or non-existent and beneficiary 

population is also low. Investment cost has yet to be estimated but it is expected to be 

high due to the terrain. 

596. Figure 6-3 shows the main road network congestion results of running the action plan in 

the model for the year 2035. The target was to have most of the network in LOS B. Only 

minor sections mostly adjacent to urban areas present a LOS C. 

Figure 6-3: 

Level of Service in 2035 of the Action Plan 





597. The following table summarizes the road investments for the medium and long-term: 

Table 6-18: 

Summary of road investments 

Horizon 

Highways 

widening 

(miles) 

Rural roads 

upgrade 

(miles) 

New 

developments 

(miles) 

Cost with Climate 

Change and Road Safety 

improvements (M USD) 

Cost with basic 

designs with HMA 

(M USD) 

Medium 294 147 7 125,6 106,4 

Long 0 142 94 234,0 210,3 

598. 10.3 M USD of the investment cost in the medium term correspond the amount for the 

widening of the shoulders of the transport corridors. 


599. For the attainment of the complete funds for the construction and maintenance of the 

proposed roads, the MoW must develop a scheme of financing of the projects in 

coordination with the MoE. This scheme may include PPP arrangements to leverage the 

public investment impact (see Institutional Dimension of the previous section). 


600. The organizational structure of the routine monitoring tasks of the MoW was described in 

Section 6.3.2.2. The same monitoring should be done for the new road sections. 

6.3.2.6. Capacity building program on data collection 


601. Ministry of Works has expressed the need to reinforce their capacity on data collection 

procedures, especially those related to transport studies. Indeed, designing and 

implementing traffic surveys needs a specific knowledge and it can be very useful for 

planning activities. Then, it was agreed to include such an activity in the medium term. 


602. A capacity building program on data collection will be prepared covering the following 

topics: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Traffic counts. 

Origin-Destination surveys. 

Stated Preference surveys. 

Mobile phone data and its applications to transport planning. 

Data analysis and OD matrix estimation. 


603. Ministry of Works would be the key stakeholder in this capacity building program. Also, 

the participation of the Department of Transport would be useful. 




Implementation Phases 

604. The implementation phases are to before 2025, particularly if it is decided that a mid-term 

review of the CNTMP is carried out in that year. 

Financial Dimension 

605. There will be two (2) months of a regional expert over 6 months for 40,000 BZD. 


606. At the beginning of the program, a set of indicators will be established to measure the 

success of the capacity building. There will be a need for staff capable of performing 

specific technical tasks. The organizational structure of the routine monitoring tasks of the 

MoW is in Section 6.3.2.2. The Consultant suggests the following adjustments: 

n 

n 

Increase the level of studies required for the staff. 

Develop a scholar program with the universities to form a Civil Engineers Associates, 

integrating them in the planning workshops, and in field practices. 

607. According to the necessities of roads, the following monitoring activities are proposed: 

n 

n 

n 

The District Technical Engineer physically reviews each road, according to a checklist, 

to register its conditions. 

Registration should contain all road characteristics, supported with photographs where 

required. 

Registration should also contain any detected problems with suggested solutions. 

Public Transport Projects and Measures 

608. Following the short-term action plan concerning the Ministry of Transport (MoT), based on 

the findings presented in the Base Line Report and on meetings and discussions with 

various stakeholders, the following four (4) short-term action plans were proposed: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Establishing a National Belize Motor Vehicle Registration and Licensing System. 

Developing inter-city bus stops and enforcing their usage. 

Building and operating the new inter-city bus terminal of Belize City. 

Modernizing public bus service and adjusting the issuance and terms of public 

transport permit. 

609. For public transport, the plan focuses on medium-term actions and is not proposing any 

long-term actions due to the need to modernize the sector as quickly as possible. 

Depending on the results achieved, the GoB should subsequently establish a longterm 

vision. Medium and long-term actions will complement the strategy of modernization of 

public transport services to offer a better service to the users, better controls, operational 

efficiency, less accidents, less contaminating and better infrastructure. The following three 

(3) action plans are proposed: 

n 

n 

Implementing the second stage of the modernization of the public bus service by 

promoting the formation of formal public transport companies, including new 

infrastructure to improve operations. 

Developing / renewing bus terminals in the main cities, starting with the cities on the 

western corridor, followed by the cities on the northern corridor and, finally, the cities 

on the southern corridor. 




n 

Developing public transport routes to touristic attractions. 

6.3.3.1. Second Stage of the Modernization of the Public Bus Service 


610. The first stage of the modernization consists of adjusting the route permits, including 

contractual clauses that do not exist today about standards of operation and safety, fleet 

type and progressive age limitation; and modifiying the duration of permits from two (2) 

years to eight (8) – 10 years. As mentioned in the short-term action plan, the length of new 

permits will be based on higher standards of operation and vehicles. 

611. From 2020 to 2022, the next stage will consist in promoting the consolidation of the 

industry, evolving from a multitude of small and informal companies (86% of companies 

have less than 5 buses, representing 52% of the fleet operating in Belize) to structured 

companies. This will enable improved efficiency in operation, and major investment 

capacities in buses and facilities. 

612. This program, with the renewed / new terminals, would be part of the overall public 

transport modernization and would have, among the objectives, to reverse the current 

modal split trend from public transport to private car. This will break the actual vicious 

circle in public transport, i.e. less passengers, less investment, poor service leading to 

fewer passengers. The expected main benefits of this second stage are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Incorporation of new/recent buses, improvement of the quality of services and comfort 

of public transport. 

Increased reliability of buses. 

Increased safety of buses. 

Increased opportunity to negotiate prices on buses /spare parts since the new bus 

companies will buy in bulk. 

Less fuel consumption and less pollution. 

Decrease of operating costs. 

Best practice in operation. 

Increased control of and transparency in fare collection. 

Greater attention to complaints from users. 

Universal accessibility. 


613. From the MoT, the main activities to be developed are the following: 

n 

n 

Promote the organization between actual bus companies / operators to form formal 

public transport companies that will permit higher investments, economies of scale, 

efficient operations and, for users, a legal figure of who is offering the service. 

Prepare a program to support small operators who elect to drop out from the new 

market structure. In the new structure, current operators would include their route 

permits and buses as an asset of the new company and would become shareholders. 

The quantity of shares given to each operator may derive from the actual participation 

on the market (as measured by the number of permits on a corridor, income generated 

by the operation, vehicles x kilometres, or other agreed upon measure). Priority should 

be given to current operators to form the new bus company. As this new organization 

may not be attractive to some current operators, a program to support their conversion 

to other productive activities should be included. In addition, a program to scrap the 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

old fleet may be introduced. This program should be developed in coordination with 

the Ministry of Finance and based on recommendation of the technical assistance 

commented below. 

Re-designing the overall bus network between key cities, including first class services 

for direct inter-urban services, omnibus inter-urban services with new suitable buses, 

and coordinated feeder services to rural zones with partial fare integration. Feeder 

buses should be part of the overall public transport system and concession should be 

issued by MoT. 

Develop the financial model for the overall system. The re-organization of public 

transport companies, the optimization of services, the investments and the income 

should be analyzed in a financial model. Those changes should permit the financial 

viability of the system which is an indispensable requirement for the new investment 

to improve quality of service and standards. This model should integrate the following: 

o Main network. 

o Feeder buses with revised fare integration options. 

o Public transport terminals with payment requirements for their use. 

o Electronic ticketing payment. 

o Form of payment (per vehicle-mile, passengers-mile), supervision of the 

system that will be in charge of the electronic payment. 

At the beginning of the new services, cancel existing route permits and replace them 

with the new route permits. Permits would include new clauses, such as comfort, 

regularity, training of drivers, and traffic violation monitoring. Concessions would be 

issued only to formal public transport companies. 

Develop electronic ticketing, fare integration and a system to split the payment to each 

company. Electronic ticketing and fare collection may be part of a PPP, with a 

specialized company providing equipment (ticket machine, validators, cards) and 

operating the system for eight (8) to ten (10) years. The operations would include 

facilities for selling tickets, equipment maintenance teams, and may include a team to 

control fare evasion. Agreements may be developed with banks or cell companies to 

amplify the users’ access and make the service easy to use. 

Limit fleet age to 15 years and implement customs procedures, including fees, to 

promote imports of new / recent vehicles with the higher environmental norm. Include 

system that promotes universal accessibility. 

MoT may negotiate tax reduction on the importation of new / recent buses to help the 

modernization of the buses. Grants may be obtained for the modernization of the fleet 

such as the clean technology fund (CTF). 

614. Enhancement of MoT and the Transportation Board’s capabilities through a Technical 

Assistance to develop public transport services controls (operation database, permits, 

regulation, fares adjustment guidelines) and train / integrate experts in the MoT. It is 

recommended that a Technical Assistance be awarded to a recognized international 

consultant firm to assist MoT in developing the analysis necessary for the negotiation with 

the current public transport operators and in preparing the guidelines and actions to 

achieve the modernization of the industry. Aspects to be covered by the Technical 

Assistance should also include electronic ticketing and the payment for the use of 

terminals; elaborate concession per corridor; define the bus types suitable for each 

corridor and service; elaborate operational guides; and train MoT agents. This Technical 

Assistance will also help with reorganizing the overall network, integrating feeder routes, 

with the preparation of the financial model, and with the determination of the equilibrium 

fare. 

615. MoT should also promote and include in the new concession titles the following actions 

that would be implemented by the public transport companies to improve their operational 

efficiency and the quality of their services: 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Integrate Intelligent Transport System solution (ITS), including: 

o Passenger information systems (on mobile or on TV screen inside the terminal) 

to indicate if the scheduled bus is on time or delayed and how long it will be 

delayed. 

o Automatic vehicle location system. 

o Driver and fuel monitoring system to identify drivers with bad practice or drivers 

that do not respect the speed limits. 

Use planning and scheduling software. 

Build maintenance workshops on strategic locations, considering the operating needs. 

Implement preventive maintenance practices. 

Formalize insured employees and drivers. 

Maintain spare parts store within the companies. 

616. MoT may help the public transport companies by offering technical assistance from his 

team and / or from external consultants in the process of formalizing public transport 

companies. 

617. Afterwards, based on the new collected data, MoT should develop further analysis on 

demand level, adequacy of supply, including indicators such as: 

n Pkm: passengers – mile. 

n Vehicle-mile. 

n Passengers per vehicle: this number will be different between direct services and 

omnibus services. 

n Passenger load rate. Actual average load is 54%. Target rate should be 65%. 


Action 2020 2021 2022 

Semester S1 S2 S1 S2 S1 S2 

MoT technical assistance 

Restructuring and optimizing routes, type of routes, 

feeder, and fares level 

PPP Schemes for electronic ticket 

Negotiation with actual PT operators 

New permits with the new public transport companies 

Bid of electronic ticketing / ITS equipment 

Production of equipment for ticketing, control and ITS 

equipment 

Purchase and production of new buses 

Construction workshops 

Beginning of operation 

At this planning stage, it has not been possible to estimate the investment needs for public 

transport actions, as there is no accurate data available on the public transport system (bus fleet, 

operators…). The CNTMP’s proposal is to improve the information system available and to 

undertake a technical study (see section 6.3.3), in order to define the technical specifications and 

costs of the system together with the MoT and the operators. 





618. A two and half year Technical Assistance should be provided by an international firm, with 

estimated cost of 3.0 million BZD to 5.0 million BZD ($US 1.5 – 2.5 million) over thirty (30) 

months. 

619. The integration of new buses will depend on the split between direct services / inter-urban 

ones and from the optimization that can be reached respecting a minimum of frequency 

between two services. 

n Peri-urban bus 240,000BZD + 30% of customs fees 

n Inter-urban bus 300,000 BZD + 30% of customs fees 

620. It is recommended, as a public service, to reduce the customs fees. This reduction may 

be allowed depending on limited age for buses or that only new buses be allowed to 

encourage the fleet renewal. 


621. This proposed plan will be monitored by checking semi-annually the progress of the 

second phase of public transport modernization. Possible monitoring targets include: 

n 

Contracting and implementing technical assistance. 

n Complete restructuring and optimization of routes – month 6: 

o Work on adjusting frequency of buses in relation to demand. 

o Determine a minimum frequency for off-peak periods. 

o Determine a minimum frequency for Saturdays, Sundays and Public Holidays. 

o Increase the use of buses optimizing courses. 

o Optimize income by route service. 

n Developing a Financial model for the overall system – including ticketing, terminals 

payment – month 12. 

n Negotiation with the public transport companies – months 18 – 24: 

o With the restructured plan and the financial model, MoT will demonstrate that 

the proposed solution offers better financial sustainability than the actual one. 

o The financial plan should demonstrate that investments would be profitable for 

the investors. 

o Rules of payment must be established and risks should be well defined. For 

example, what would be the process of payment if there is less demand for 

services. 

o Formalize companies, including professional process about the operation, 

maintenance, standards and quality to reach the level of demand expected. 

Contingency procedures will guarantee access to loan and limit the risks for 

the investors. 

n Support the ticketing and bus bidding processes – month 30: 

o Financial model plan is the base to obtain a loan to buy the new buses. 

o Electronic ticketing guarantees a control of income and is an important element 

to reach the loan. 

o The business plan should define the rules clearly. Risk mitigations are the key 

to obtain loan or lower interest rates. 

o Bus providers have their own banks, sometimes with lower interest rates than 

the commercial banks. Every loan option should be evaluated. 

o World Bank by the Clean Technology Fund may be part of the lessor for bus 

loan. 

n Support for the location of maintenance workshops and parking – month 24. 




n Advance in workshops and parking construction – month 30. 

n Beginning of operation – month 36. 

n Staff training to be ready in day 0. 

n Test protocols for the overall equipment and buses. 

n Elaboration of manuals / process of operation. 

n Audit of the operation on the first day. 

622. An example of good practice is the State of Guanajuato in Mexico that is working on an 

overall re-design of its inter-urban routes, including new terminals, connection with urban 

services and in a second stage, integrated fares between urban and inter-courban 

services. The project is progressively developed by corridors as a PPP project. The main 

public transport companies are investing not only in new buses but also in the terminals 

via PPP schemes. Retail income is factored into the overall strategy. 

623. Most of Bus Rapid Transit projects in Latin and Central America are based on the 

implementation of formal companies. Although these projects are in urban locations, the 

inter-urban services can apply the similar modernization procedures. Clear business plan, 

professional process is the basis for obtaining funding from banks, with less capital and 

with much lower interest rate than the individual / small / informal public transport 

companies that were operating before. 

6.3.3.2. Renew / Build Bus Terminals in all Main Cities 


624. Following the project of a new terminal at the entrance of Belize, expected in the short 

term, on Lake Independence Boulevard, led by Belize Infrastructure Limited, other main 

terminals in the main cities of the country need to be renewed or built: 

n 

n 

n 

On the Western corridor: 

§ Belmopan (renewed or relocated). 

§ San Ignacio (to be built). 

§ Benque Viejo (to be built). 

On the northern corridor: 

§ Orange Walk (renewed or relocated). 

§ Corozal (renewed or relocated). 

On the south corridor 

§ Dangriga (renewed or relocated). 

§ Placencia (to be built). 

§ Punta Gorda (to be built). 

625. The main problems, observed in the above listed cities, are the following: 

n 

n 

n 

Buses tend to park on the street around bus terminals. 

Bus terminals are disorderly because of lack of capacity, bad operation, and limited 

regulation. 

Private bus companies are building their own bus terminals, such as the Benque Viejo 

Bus Terminal; thus, services are not concentrated in one point. 

626. The main benefits expected from re-built or new bus terminals are the following: 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

The bus terminals will help to organize the feeder services and other modes of public 

transport. 

Services available, such as, restaurants, snack, and others. 

Good waiting facilities. 

Safety by controlling the operation of buses. 

Safety inside and outside the terminal. 

Better connection with feeder buses – reduction off travel time. 

Universal Accessibility. 

Design of the terminal facilities that propagate unobstructed, convenient and universal 

accessibility while boarding and alighting from the platforms. 

Design to limit the pedestrian – vehicle point of conflict. 

Visible signage inside the terminal. 

627. The following table is showing the volume of passengers that travel from / to the main 

cities of Belize in 2025 (results provided by the model forecast). Not every trip will start 

from / end in the city terminal, but it gives an indication of the intensity of users. 

Table 6-19: 

Daily Origin / destination of passengers per city 

Corridor City Daily pax from / to 

Belize City 24,290 

Northern corridor Orange Walk 7,652 

Northern corridor Corozal 5,110 

Western corridor Belmopan 12,548 

Western corridor San Ignacio 4,516 

Western corridor Benque Viejo 3,144 

Southern corridor Dangriga 4,996 

Southern corridor Placencia 958 

Southern corridor Punta Gorda 3,480 

628. The western corridor is the one that carries the most passengers in Belize and it is 

recommended to begin with that corridor. 


629. Belize Infrastructure Limited is in charge of the new terminal project in Belize City. 

Following this first experience, it may be the public entity in charge of the PPP process. 

Different delivery models could be considered for this project, from a 100% public 

financing, a mix of financing between private and public or a 100% private financing. 

n DBB + OM + MRC (Design Bid Build + multiples short term O&M, Conventional 

delivery + multiple retail concessions). Public financing and authority deals with 

multiple short-term retails concessions. 

n DB + EW + RC (Design, Build contract + extended warranty 5 – 10 years + retail 

concessions). Concessionaire is financially and operationally responsible for the 

maintenance during the EW period. The Concessionaire is responsible for the long 

term overall retail concession. 

n DBFM + MRC (Design, Build, Finance, & Maintain + multiple retail concessions) – 

Financing could be full private or partially public and partially private. 

n DBFOM (Design, Build, Finance, Operate & Maintain) – financing in that case is 100% 

private. The Concessionaire is responsible for the long-term retail concession. 




630. In the process of selecting the best PPP mix solution, the transfer of risk from public sector 

to private sector is one of the key issues. As the transportation-related revenues are 

crucial for such PPP, related risks can only be transferred to the developer if there is a 

clear and effective policy and strict enforcement: 

n If there is low control of bus operations by the authorities, there is risk of staging / 

parking outside of bus terminals. 

n Part of the income is based on passengers or buses using the station. Developers 

need to have guarantees that buses will operate from the bus terminal; if not, it will 

create a loss of passengers, loss of retail opportunities and loss of number of buses 

using the terminal, daily. An additional income could come from advertising inside the 

terminals. 

631. It will also be necessary to analyse the steps of implementation: 

n 

n 

n 

Launch individual bid. 

Bid the main terminals per corridors. 

Bid for the overall terminals in the country. 

632. Depending on the level of demand, the location, the services / retail that may be offered, 

the scheme may vary from one terminal to the other. 

633. It is recommended that a Technical Assistance be awarded to a recognized international 

consultant firm to assist BIL to develop the analysis necessary to evaluate the best PPP 

schemes. Feedback on the experience of the Belize City terminal will also be useful in 

preparing the schemes for the bus terminals in other cities. The global financial model, 

proposed in the Second stage of the modernization of the Public Bus Service will also 

provide indications on the tariffs that may be paid for the use of the terminals. 

634. Restructuring routes and services will provide information about positions needed on the 

platforms and in the waiting rooms. 


Action 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 

Semester S1 S2 S1 S2 S1 S2 S1 S2 S1 S2 S1 S2 

Technical assistance / evaluation 

of best PPP schemes for the 

western corridor 

Feasibility 

Procurement western corridors 

Construction of the three 

terminals of the western corridor 

Overall process Northern corridor 

Overall process Southern corridor 


635. The following costs are per terminal. 

n 

n 

Feasibility: 100,000 BZD 

Design / Procurement: 187,500 BZD to (southern corridor terminals) to 225,000BZD 

(other corridor terminals). 




n 

Construction: 2,500,000 BZD (southern corridor terminals) to 3,000,000BZD (others 

corridor terminals). 

636. The cost of construction is estimated based of similar projects developed in the state of 

Guanajuato, with an adjusted factor to Belize’s conditions. It includes: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Platforms 

Staging 

Parking facilities 

Ticketing booth 

Small restaurant, snacks and small retail, spaces 

Waiting room 


637. BIL will monitor this plan by checking the progress of the project, semi-annually: 

n Contracting and implementing technical assistance. Part of the analysis for the PPP 

schemes will be provided by the technical assistance mentioned in the paragraph 

“Second Stage of the Modernization of the Public Bus Service”, as it is necessary to 

have an overall financial model that should include: 

o Public transport operation. 

o Ticketing. 

o Terminals revenues based on a fee on buses or passengers or a mix. 

n Feasibility study, Western corridor – month 12. 

n Procurement, Western Corridor – Month 18. 

n Construction ending Western Corridor: month 30. 

6.3.3.3. Develop Public Transport Routes to Touristic Sites to Limit Charter Services 

Dependence on Tourism Services 


638. There are no regular public transport services from cities to touristic sites. To reach those 

sites, residents or tourists should take a charter service provided by a tourism agency. 

Sites close to Belize City, such as Altun Ha (100,000 yearly visitors in 2015, BTB source) 

and Caves Branch (157,000 visitors in 2015, BTB source), attract a lot of tourists from 

Belize City, when they are spending one night or because they arrive by cruise ships. 

Those sites are only available by contracting a tour with a tourism agency. 

639. It is recommended to offer at least two daily bus services from Belize City to Caves Branch 

and to Altun Ha, adjusting the timetable to the arrival of cruise ships and an additional 

service for tourists that are staying in Belize and for residents. The bus size will depend 

on the demand of those new services and more services can be added, depending on the 

success of the service. 

640. Following the first 2 routes, services will be developed for more sites or from more cities, 

such as Xunantunich (85,000 visitors in 2015) that may be connected from San Ignacio. 

Revision of the selected sites should be done in the future with BTB, as some sites have 

daily limited access (already exceeded). 





641. MoT will concession route permits for these first two routes. MoT will supervise the 

services, as a good will part of the success of those routes. 

642. Communication will also be part of the strategy, in particular in 

https://www.travelbelize.org and in internet forums such as Trip Advisor. It is also 

recommended to indicate those services inside the book Travel Guide Belize available at 

the entrance of the country (Belize International Airport and land Port of Entry) and 

published by the Belize Tourism Board. 


643. First 2 route concessions in 2021. Depending on the results, enhance the services to 

touristic attraction in 2022. 


644. Service may start with vans of 16 seats. As there is no subsidy for public transport 

services, the profitability must be based on fares’ income. 

645. As it is a special service, fares could be higher than the one used for normal services. 

646. In the implementation phase, an on-demand services may be developed with prereservation, 

for a scheduled service option, with transparency in terms of fares and under 

the authorization of DoT. At the beginning of these new services, this option may not 

permit the use of empty vans until there is sufficient demand. 


647. Revision of adequacy supply / demand by reporting of the concessioner every 3 months 

at the beginning of the operation to adjust frequency, if necessary. 

6.3.3.4. Water Taxi Development Program 


648. Water taxi services need to be managed and regulated. The only regulation is regarding 

security. Regulation does not exist in terms of services, scheduled time, or verification 

whether the scheduled times are adequate to the necessity of the local population since 

almost 70% of the demand is generated by Belizeans traveling for work or study purposes. 

649. BPA is aware of the need for a regulatory framework and indeed, a draft regulation was 

already prepared, but it was not approved due to the difficulty to reach an agreement with 

the operators. It is possible that the proposed regulatory framework was to interventionist 

by fixating certain tariffs and not being very flexible for the opening of new routes. 

650. To develop water taxi services, it is necessary to adopt a regulation enforcing certain 

quality standards. Specific incentives could also be included. BPA needs some support to 

learn the particularities of a sector for which it has a lack of capacity. Therefore, the action 

aims at drafting the new regulation and increasing the capacity of BPA on water taxi 

management and the safety of the operations, including the condition and safety of the 

boats. Items that should be covered in the regulatory conditions include, at least, the 

following: 

n 

n 

n 

Definition of the permitting authority (BPA). 

Definition of permit to operate water taxi. 

Water taxi requirements, such as, size, security equipment, and maximum capacity. 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Requirements for a crew of a water taxi by type of water taxi. 

Water taxi identification and display of information. 

Considerations for the grant of a permit, duration and conditioning clauses. 

Offences and penalties. 

Development of routes and schedules. 

Water taxi passenger fare and tickets. 

Information and reporting requirements. 

Development of competition to improve the services. 

651. In parallel, another component of the action will promote the development of additional 

infrastructure for water taxi services. Indeed, to promote the tourism sector, some new 

routes may be developed as Philip Goldson International Airport to Caye Caulker and San 

Pedro. This service may reduce the time and cost of travel. Today, to reach the water 

taxis’ services in the Center it takes more than half an hour; this time may be reduced to 

less than 10 minutes if service starts from Vista del Mar (see maps below), as the distance 

is shorter (5km vs. 16km); prices of taxis should also decrease. 

Figure 6-4: 

Possible new departure pier for new water taxis between PGIA to Caye 

Caulker and San Pedro 

Pier 


652. The action will be divided into three components: 

n 

n 

n 

A capacity-building program on management of the sector of water taxis will be 

prepared covering safety, operations, environmental issues, routes, concession of 

routes, tariff calculations, and fleet management. 

The drafting of a new regulation together with BPA and the water taxi operators to 

apply the best practices shared during the capacity-building program. 

The development of water taxi/ marina piers to improve tourist services at the following 

locations: 

o Bomba pier, services to San Pedro, with capacity to load and unload freight 

barges. 

o Sarteneja marina/pier: improve services to Chetumal, Ambergris Caye and 

San Pedro. 

o Punta Gorda marina/pier: services to Lívingston in Guatemala. 




o Vista del Mar pier. A water taxi terminal could be developed with passenger 

amenities, such as toilets, waiting zones, drinking water, snacks. 


653. Belize Port Authority should develop management capacity to plan and supervise the 

operation of water taxis. Most of the piers will be private; BPA should revise the installation 

and the safety of the operations, including the condition and safety of the boats, and 

should monitor the application of the concession agreements. The planning should include 

the analysis of the opportunities for new routes and concessions. 

654. BPA should develop a Water Taxi Board, to guide BPA on the planning, regulation and 

control functions of the water taxi sub-sector. This Board may include representatives from 

other ministries with interest in the water taxi services, such as Tourism and Transport, 

and representatives from users’ associations. 


655. Capacity building and regulation drafting in 2020-2021 the latest. 

656. PGIA to Caye Caulker and San Pedro: 

n 

n 

2022: feasibility study for the terminal 

Medium to end of 2022: construction of the terminal 


657. To support the regulation drafting and the capacity-building program 3 months of a 

regional expert over 6 months for 60,000 BZD would suffice. 

658. A first estimation of the construction cost of those new piers is presented below: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Vista del Mar Water Taxi terminal: 1,000,000 BZD 

Bomba pier: 2,000,000 BZD including dredging 

Sarteneja marina/pier: 700,000 BZD 

Punta Gorda marina/pier: 700,000 BZD 


659. The first stage is to develop the water taxi regulations and clarify the requirements to 

operate water taxis. 

660. At the beginning of the program, a set of indicators would be established together with 

BPA to measure the success of the capacity building; for example, can staff perform 

specific technical tasks, such as, estimating tariffs. 

661. For pier development, BPA will be in charge of the planning and monitoring of those new 

piers and services. As it is a private investment, BPA should promote those locations to 

private water taxi operators who will build the pier and terminals, if required. 

Ports and Maritime Transport Projects and Measures 


662. The ports sector in Belize faces several challenges in the medium and long term. On the 

one hand, capacity limitations emerge, with current needs of infrastructure for cruise 




vessels and bulk cargo in Belize City. On the other hand, the institutional framework is 

very complex, with linkages to the politics of the country. To be more concrete, there are 

several possible configurations for the ports sector in the future, with three ongoing, 

competing cruise terminal projects. Moreover, the final choice of cruise development may 

limit the options for freight development, or at least increase their cost. Still, being the 

situation for the Comprehensive National Transport Master Plan as is, none of the different 

cruise alternatives has progressed enough; that is, none has developed a realistic 

business plan and secured funding from investors. As the conditions required to obtain 

support from the Government have not been fulfilled at the end of the current study, the 

Consultant cannot focus on a single solution. Consequently, the structure of this part of 

the report differs from those relating to other modes. It briefly describes the context, then 

presents and compares the alternative configurations for the ports sector in Belize. By 

providing a summary of the various issues, as well as infrastructure options and their 

potential impacts, the Consultant attempted to provide the GOB with a decision-making 

tool. 

6.3.4.2. Rationale 

Key issues – freight options 

663. The project of dredging in Big Creek should be completed by the end of 2018. After this, 

the draught of the port will be 11 meters, enabling container and bulk ports to dock instead 

of loading and unloading through barges. Big Creek will have enough capacity, both in 

terms of draught and quantity of berths and will be capable to handle bulk and containers. 

In the medium term, the problems of the sector will therefore focus on the area of Belize 

City. 

664. The Port of Belize only has one berth of 67 meters (the King’s Wharf) with a long and 

narrow access trestle which makes it very vulnerable to natural disasters. In addition, its 

capacity to handle bulk is very limited, with no adapted facility. Relatively big volumes, as 

those from Belize Sugar Industries, continue to be loaded in anchorage directly to an 

Ocean Going Vessel (OGV) through a system of barges. This results in high detention 

times for the vessel that has significant impact on transport costs and hence affects the 

competitiveness of the Belizean sugar exports. 

665. Today, the capacity of the King’s Wharf is estimated at 70,000 containers per year, without 

considering any capacity needs for bulk or break-bulk vessels. Some of them call to port 

with products like cement or fertilizers, but often have to wait a few days because of the 

priority given to container services and the lack of a second berth. Over the past two years, 

the current container traffic has stabilized at around 45,000-48,000 containers per year 

after a period of massive growth (CAGR of 7% for the period 2009-2015). There is 

uncertainty about the forecast growth for the next years; the drop in GDP in 2016 is visible 

in terms of traffic. If Belize establishes a growth trend over several years, container traffic 

might grow at a similar pace as during the period 2009-2015. Furthermore, most of the 

new production for BSI sugar is expected to be containerized, therefore 70,000 to 100,000 

tons of containerized sugar must be included in the forecasts up to 2025. 




Figure 6-5: 


666. Chapter 3 includes the demand forecasts for the Port of Belize (see Table 3-16). When 

adding the forecast number of containers (import and export) for 2025, it results in 68,500 

TEU, a value close to the theoretical capacity of King’s Wharf (70,000 TEU). It would result 

in a reduced capacity or none at all for bulk shipments. Even with conservative forecasts, 

it is very likely that this situation is reached by 2030. Belize City faces a potential 

congestion for containers between 2025 and 2030. 

667. In parallel, bulk freight needs a solution as soon as possible. Otherwise, companies, such 

as, BSI may decide to export their bulk through the Big Creek Port taking advantage of 

scale economies and shorter detention times. However, transporting the sugar by road to 

the south of the country will incur severe negative externalities in terms of roads 

maintenance, road safety and pollution. Besides, bulk shippers who use King’s Wharf 

nowadays are somewhat powerless. They regularly face delays and surrounding 

uncertainties, which result in negative impacts on their activities. 

668. Drawn by frustration, some stakeholders proposed, a few years ago, the construction of a 

new port in Commerce Bight focused on bulk traffic. This project has been analysed in the 

study entitled, “Comparative Analysis of Port Options in Belize” (IDB, 2016). The report 

included an investment estimated at about USD 80 million. Regarding traffic, it assumed 

full diversion of sugar (from BSI and Santander) to the new port, as well as, full diversion 

of citrus. With a shippers’ capacity/willingness to pay averaged across all products in the 

range of US$5-10 per ton, the IRR obtained was of 3% negative NPV. Under those 

conditions, the project appeared bankable only with significant public contribution. 

Consequently, the project was put on hold, since it appears preferable to further develop 

and optimize the existing ports. 

669. However, the institutional situation of the Port of Belize, which is in receivership, hinders 

its evolvement. Ideally, the most suitable solution would be to increase the capacity in the 

Port of Belize through a second berth. This option would solve both the problem of future 

container congestion, and the lack of berthing availability for bulk. Furthermore, in view of 




a more efficient alternative for sugar exports, it would make sense to combine it with a 

bulk storage facility. Considering the available land in the Port of Belize, the unfinished 

cruise terminal would be suitable for this project. The berth is almost ready and two access 

trestles are already built which would highly reduce the exposure of the port. During 

discussions held in 2015 between GOB and Belize Port Limited, GOB suggested that 

besides freight operations development, the Receiver could also explore the potential for 

a cruise terminal to diversify their business. However, the owners of the Port of Belize 

developed a project for a new cruise terminal in the very same location, adequate for a 

second freight berth, abandoning the idea of freight development. The project seems to 

be in a mature stage, with identified investors and a signed contract with a dredging 

company for assessing the dredging needs to implement the project. If this project were 

to be implemented, the land identified for freight development would be claimed for the 

cruise terminal. As a result, the development of freight operations in the Port of Belize 

would be more constrained and the alternatives for extensions more expensive. 

670. Further, compounding this issue are two other competing projects for the cruise terminal 

as demonstrated in the next section. None of the three projects has yet developed a clear 

business plan and secured its funding so it can be approved by the GOB, therefore, so far 

it is impossible to define at this stage what shall be done for the development of freight 

ports. There are three scenarios concerning freight: 

n 

n 

n 

The Port of Belize is not chosen by the GOB as the most suitable option for developing 

the cruise terminal. In that case, it would be relatively simple to increase the capacity 

for container and bulk in that same port 

The Port of Belize is chosen by the GOB for developing the cruise terminal. In that 

case, the increase of freight capacity in the port would still be feasible, but more 

expensive. Moreover, the Port Operator would need to be willing to mobilize sufficient 

funds, with regard to capacity increase for freight, in parallel to the project for cruise 

terminal. 

The Port of Belize Limited is incapable of developing additional capacity for freight, for 

the following main possible reasons given below: 

o the operator is concentrated on building the cruise terminal. 

o the operator is not capable of investing in any project, be it freight or 

cruise. In that case, re-visiting the idea of the Port of Commerce Bight 

might be an alternative to meet country demand, particularly freight and 

expanded bulk. 

671. The way these projects combine with the cruise options are presented further below, 

following the explanation of the cruise projects alternatives. 

Key issues – cruise terminal options 

672. Cruise tourists represent a major part of the total number of tourists that visit the country. 

There is still no terminal capable of serving cruise vessels, excepting Harvest Caye in the 

south. In peak season, up to 4 vessels anchor close to Stake Bank. The passengers are 

transferred to the mainland by water taxis and from there they start the inland tours. This 

loading, tendering and offloading requires 45 minutes each way, so in total the tourists 

spend 1.5 hours per day just to get to Belize City and backward to anchorage. In light of 

this, cruise operators have raised the need to build a cruise terminal onshore, which would 

let the passengers spend more time for tourist activities. 

673. The Government of Belize has signed MOU’s or entered into discussions for three (3) 

alternative cruise terminals: 




n 

n 

n 

A cruise terminal in Stake Bank, where currently the cruises are anchored. This 

would be an offshore solution and still watertaxi transport would be required in 

order to move passengers from the vessel to Belize City. The plans for the 

project include the construction of a bridge, which connects the terminal with 

Belize City; but this option seems overly unrealistic. 

A cruise terminal in the Port of Belize, in the same place as the unfinished one. 

This would provide an onshore solution for cruise passengers in Belize City 

with berthing capacity for 4 vessels and a draught of 11 meters. 

A cruise terminal south of Belize City close to the Northern Lagoon. This project 

is called Port of Magical Belize and would comprise berthing capacity for 4 

vessels, a draught of 12 meters and other touristic facilities, such as, hotels. 

674. The location of the three (3) alternative projects is presented in the following figure. 

675. From an operating point of view, the Stake Bank project is the weakest because the 

purpose of a cruise terminal is to provide a direct access to the mainland for cruise 

passengers, which the project in Stake Bank lacks. Tenders would still be required to 

transfer the passengers from State Bank to Belize City. Hence, we do not consider it a 

valid option. 

676. In the next Section, a set of possible combinations between cruise terminals and freight 

projects that could become viable solutions to answer the needs for both types of traffic 

are presented. The decision regarding the cruise terminal will determine the best option 

(or least negative) for freight. In parallel, the different cruise terminal promoters consulted 

have agreed that once a project is selected, a MOU with the Government of Belize defining 

some preferential conditions will be a requirement to mobilize the necessary funds and 

put the project into practice. 

Figure 6-6: 

Alternative options for Cruise Terminals 




677. On the other hand, GOB has invited the cruise terminal project promoters to present their 

business plans together with the investors who are willing to participate in the operation. 

Based on it (and further considerations given below), the GOB shall make a decision. The 

position of the Government is quite pragmatic; the first project to present a realistic 

business and investment plan may obtain the MOU, and become the selected option. 

6.3.4.3. Competing Alternatives – Actions 

678. Based on the illustrated situation, together with the strategy for the ports sector presented 

in Chapter 2, three main configurations have been identified for the future: 

n 

Option 1 includes the following projects: 

o Cruise Terminal in the Port of Magical Belize; 

o Development of a multipurpose second berth in Port of Belize. 

n 


o Cruise Terminal in Port of Belize; 

o Reclaim of land in Port of Belize to develop a multipurpose second berth. 

n 


o Cruise Terminal either in Port of Belize or in the Port of Magical Belize; 

o Construction of a multipurpose port in Commerce Bight. 

Option 1 

679. This option favours the Port of Magical Belize as the best option for a cruise terminal and 

prefers that the Port of Belize specialise in freight operations. 

680. The Port of Magical Belize is an initiative from a group of Belizean investors (Portico 

Enterprises Limited) to develop a cruise terminal on a parcel of land located along the 

coastline just south of the Sibun River. The port would have an artificial small peninsula 

to minimise dredging works for the construction of the berth. 

Figure 6-7: 

Conceptual Design for the Port of Magical Belize 




681. The berth would have capacity for four Oasis class vessels needing 12 m (39 ft.) draught. 

The distance from the port to the deep Main Channel is shorter than from Belize City, 

which reduces overall dredging costs. Moreover, it also reduces navigating time from the 

reef. It takes 1 hour from the reef to the Port of Magical Belize and 1h15 minutes until 

Stake Bank, likely about 1h30 to Port of Belize if the access channel was dredged. 

Figure 6-8: 

Navigational Chart of Belize Waters 

682. The project will encompass the construction of an access road of 6 miles and a bridge 

connecting to the Western Highway. Additional investments in hotels and other tourist 

infrastructure are also part of the project. 

683. The target is to bypass Belize City as, nowadays, getting to the city from the cruise and 

getting out of it entails major time losses. This should increase the time spent by the 

passengers doing activities inside the country and would facilitate early departures for the 

ships. Besides, another reason for the promoters to prefer a location out of Belize City is 

to present a more attractive first impression for the tourist landing in Belize for the same 

time. It is worth noting that this project would create new tourism development 

opportunities in an underdeveloped part of the country. North and south of the port, the 

construction of new hotels targeting different market segments (for instance, all including 

resorts, could be a tangible plan for economic development in the area). 

684. Regarding funding and cost estimates, the cost estimate for the first phase encompassing 

the before mentioned components is estimated at around USD 150 million, including 

access road. Discussions with international companies, with expertise in dredging, have 

already begun; therefore, the cost of this item is not expected to change significantly. 

Environmental studies have been launched, aiming at obtaining the environmental 

clearance in about six (6) months. Finally, negotiations with different investors are ongoing, 

most of them from Mexico. This is one of the weakest points of the project since 

the funding is not yet secured. The promoters expect to have solid proposals in 3 – 4 

months. After that period, it will be possible to assess whether the project can be 

realistically implemented or not. 

685. In refrence to freight operations under Option 1, claiming the unfinished cruise terminal 

area in the Port of Belize for the development of a multipurpose second berth will be 

possible. As explained at the beginning of this Section, there will be a congestion problem 




in the future, related to container traffic; however, today there is already a problem with 

lack of capacity to handle bulk cargo properly. Initially, the extension of King’s Wharf was 

considered an option; the related cost was estimated by IDB at USD 25 million. The 

problem with that project alone is that the extension of capacity is limited (from 70,000 

containers/year to a maximum of 90,000 containers/year), and it does not solve the 

problem for bulk. In addition, with only a narrow access trestle, the vulnerability of the 

wharf would be significant. Based on the existing feasibility studies for the Port of Belize, 

it was identified that completing the berth in the unfinished cruise terminal and carrying 

out the minimum works to have it operational, would cost USD 15-20 million, including 

dredging of the turning basin. This amount would increase to USD 25-28 million to include 

a bulk storage facility with a capacity of about 0.5 million tons and a new access road 

about 2 miles long, connecting directly to the Western Highway. The similarity of costs 

was indeed surprising, as one would expect that the King’s Wharf extension should be 

less expensive. In any event, the pre-existing infrastructure of the uncompleted terminal 

will contribute to reduced investment costs. Besides, the presence of two access trestles 

will reduce the vulnerability to natural disasters and should facilitate port operations, 

hence, increasing productivity. The main bulk facility could be located close to the access 

road. Even so, there is additional land for containers or bulk storage adjacent to the berth. 

This could open the possibility to stock there the cargo that will be loaded/ unloaded from 

a call and therefore reduce the detention time of the vessels at port. 

Figure 6-9: 

Scheme for the Multipurpose Second Berth and Bulk Facility in Port 

of Belize 

686. As a whole, Option 1 seems to solve quite satisfactorily the existing and future challenges 

of the sector at a reasonable cost. The capacity to secure funds for Port of Magical Belize 

remains uncertain. 




Option 2 

687. This case focuses on the possibilities for developing both freight and cruise operations in 

the Port of Belize, if the Cruise Terminal is built in the area of the former unfinished terminal 

(see figure below). 

688. According to Port of Belize Limited sources, the project under preparation will consist of 

berthing capacity for four cruise vessels and a different road access to somehow separate, 

as much as possible, passengers from freight. The berths, the turning basin and the 

access channel will be dredged to 11m (36 ft.). A first cost estimate of USD 175 million 

was carried out. 

689. As reported by other sources, 11m (37 ft.) may not be sufficient to receive the bigger Oasis 

class vessels, currently under construction. If the port wanted to accommodate such 

vessels, the dredging should go at least up to 12 meters and the total cost would increase. 

Figure 6-10: Configuration in Port of Belize for Cruise and Freight Purposes. Left: 

Medium Term. Right: Possibilities for Future Developments in the very Long Term 

(Beyond 2035) 

Container Yard & 

Container Yard & 

690. The port operator launched a dredging exploration to obtain more precise cost estimation. 

691. In terms of readiness, this cruise terminal project seems to be the most mature: dredging 

explorations are ongoing, and apparently, some investors have already been attracted. 

After the dredging exploration, the business plan will be finalised, and it will be possible to 

start discussions with GOB for a potential MoU. This could have the advantage of 

attracting a group of foreign investors with experience on port operations that will take 

control from the receiver, which will become a shareholder. 

692. Assuming that for cruise passengers the proposed terminal is quite a valid solution, the 

project generates some constraints for developing freight operations. As mentioned at the 

beginning of the Section, rather than the extension of the existing wharf, the construction 

of a second berth would be more suitable for all types of traffic and more sustainable in 

the long-term. However, if the Cruise Terminal is built as planned, a different solution must 

be investigated. Among the different alternatives, the most viable would be to claim the 

land shown in the figure above, by refilling it with dredging materials from the new area of 

manoeuvring. According to the Receiver, this would be possible, but other stakeholders 

have mentioned that the soil might not be suitable for fill material, which would increase 




construction costs. The extra land behind the berth could serve for a bulk storage facility 

and for additional yard for containers. 

693. In that case, a new berth of up to 500 meters (1,640 feet), or less to optimize costs, and 

10 m (33 ft.) of draught, could be built. This technical solution would have the advantage 

of being connected directly to the yard, avoiding operating on the trestles. More efficient 

equipment could be installed, and the productivity of the port could highly increase. This 

solution would reduce the vulnerability of the port against natural disasters. The new berth 

will become the primary berth and King’s Wharf, the second berth. 

694. On the technical side, the main disadvantage is the dredging requirements, for not only 

the construction, but also, the future maintenance needs. There is available data on the 

draught in that area; assuming an average of 6 meters of depth to be dredged over an 

area of 200,000 sqm and, at a cost of USD 10/sqm, the cost for dredging would be at least 

USD 12 million. It would be necessary to add the costs of a full new berth (30-40 M USD 

for 250-300 meters / 820-985 feet of berth), a bulk facility and other works (USD 5-10 

million). A direct access road to the Western Highway is included in the budget for the 

cruise, but it would make sense to use that same direct access to the Western Highway 

for freight vehicles and hence avoid crossing the city center. The total amount will definitely 

exceed USD 60 million, depending on the dredging requirements and final size of the 

berth. The cost estimate does not include any provision for new handling equipment. 

695. Another constraint might be insufficient space for manoeuvring between the access trestle 

and the cruise terminal. For the size of the freight ships calling in Belize City, a diameter 

of about 500 meters (1,640 feet) should be enough, but this should be checked during the 

feasibility study. In the right scheme, the figure above, some options were proposed for 

future extensions, if additional capacity were needed. Option B would be preferable to 

Option A would finally result in the replacement of King’s Wharf. If the problems in the 

turning basin were serious, a modified version of Option B could be envisaged, by building 

a very large berth on the current location of the access trestle to King’s Wharf. 

696. Finally, a major risk of this project is the capacity or interest of Port of Belize Limited and 

its owners to invest in both projects (cruise terminal and new multipurpose berth) at the 

same time. Considering the stage in project preparation of the cruise terminal project, it 

would start first. Therefore, there would be the risk that the freight project stays on standby 

with negative consequences for the Belizean economy. 

Option 3 

697. Under this option, the cruise terminal can be built either in the Port of Belize or in the Port 

of Magical Belize. The critical issue is that the port operator of Port of Belize may not have 

resources or willingness to develop freight activities and hence it would necessary for the 

GOB to foster an alternative solution to accompany the economic development of the 

country. Obviously, the likelihood of this situation will be higher if the cruise terminal is 

built in the Port of Belize (as presented in Option 2) and it will be considered the case for 

Option 3. That is because the port owner will have to implement the freight project in 

parallel with the construction of the cruise terminal. Mobilizing funds at the same time can 

be considered risky for the same investor, especially for a freight project whose profitability 

depends, not only on the local market, but also on the world economy. 

698. In a situation in which no freight project is implemented in Belize City, an alternative could 

be found in Commerce Bight Port. This project has been included in the political agenda 

during the last years and, in some cases, it was even one of the political campaign 

promises. A proper analysis of the project and its potential must, therefore, be undertaken. 




699. Originally used for banana export in the early 20th century, the remaining infrastructure 

consists of a pier head sitting at the end of a wooden trestle of about 150 meters with no 

handling equipment. The survey conducted by the Port Authority in 2009 revealed a depth 

of 4.7 meters at the pier. However, from the shores of Commerce Bight, it takes only a 

little over half a mile to access deeper waters of 15 meters (49 ft.) which would make of it 

a natural port, with few dredging needs to accommodate big vessels. 

Figure 6-11: Existing Pier at the Commerce Bight Port 

700. As mentioned above, in the report, “Comparative Analysis of Port Options in Belize” (IDB, 

2016) a cost estimation of USD 80 million was done and it was suggested that even in a 

Public-Private Partnership (PPP), the GOB share of the total amount of investment may 

be high: up to USD 60 million, if the Government had to fund most of the civil works. There 

have been recent developments regarding Commerce Bight Port, a private group 

(Recological Systems Limited, hereinafter RSL) presented a project proposal for the 

makeover of the port with fully private funding. The development would be conducted in 

several phases, with an initial investment for the first four of USD 133 million, a major 

increase compared to the cost estimate in the IDB report. The first phases would 

concentrate on rehabilitating some of the existing infrastructure and expand it 

progressively. In terms of road access, the cost estimate includes the rehabilitation of the 

existing access in the initial stage and a new road access in the third phase. 

701. The table below presents a tentative schedule for the development of the port if the 

signature of an MOU and the mobilization of funds were to occur in 2018. 

702. Apparently, some investors would back RSL and are willing to participate in the operation. 

However, no specific individuals were indicated by name. The financial feasibility is 

therefore uncertain. 




Table 6-20: 

Four-phase Developmental to Achieve the Commerce Bight Port 

Fully Operational by Year 2022 

Project Timeline Works 

Estimated Time 

Completion 

Total 

Personnel 

Facility 

Preparation – 

Initial Stage 

0 – 6 mths 

§ Finalize architectural design for port 

layout and infrastructures 

§ Conduct land surveys and research to 

verify new road access 

§ Conduct environmental assessment 

studies 

§ Remediate existing access road and 

access works to expand and straighten 

jetty 

§ Repair fence; upgrade security booth 

§ Dredge the area to dock vessels 

§ Finalize Agreement for Maritime 

Organization 

TBD 

2 weeks 

3 – 5 months 

3 – 5 weeks 

3 - 5 weeks 

8 – 10 weeks 

TBD 

Internal 

Internal 

Internal 

25 personnel 

10 – 15 

personnel 

6 personnel 

Internal 

Facility 

Preparation / 

Layout 

6 mths – 1 

yr. 

§ Conduct on-going Engineering 

assessments to up-scale pier & port 

§ Repair existing moorings (Dolphins) 

§ Construct additional moorings (2) 

§ Conduct initial phase of construction for 

warehouse/office facilities 

§ Dredge to allow larger vessels docking 

§ Mobilize initial emergency equipment 

10 weeks 

TBD 

TBD 

8 months 

TBD 

TBD 

Internal 

TBD 

TBD 

20 – 25 

personnel 

TBD 

Internal 

Facility Layout 

2 Years 

§ Conduct initial works for new road access 

§ Conduct initial works to up-scale pier & 

port 

§ Conduct initial works for bulk storage 

§ Dredge to deepen berth as necessary 

§ Procure equipment necessary for 

operations 

§ Mobilize additional emergency 

equipment 

12 months 

TBD 

6 – 12 months 

12 months 

TBD 

As needed 

60 personnel 

Internal 

TBD 

10 personnel 

Internal 

Internal 

Primary 

Development – 

Scaling up and 

Technical 

Upgrade 

Years 3 - 

4 

§ Conduct ongoing architectural works for 

pier upgrade & facilities 

TBD 

§ Finalize new roads access 

3 months 

§ Purchase/lease additional equipment for 

As needed 

operations & emergency response 

§ Expand bulk storage (if necessary) 

As needed 

TBD 

TBD 

20 personnel 

Internal 

TBD 

Scaling Up 

and Technical 

Upgrade 

Year 5 

§ Expand bulk storage facility (if required) 

§ Complete works; port operational 

TBD 

------- 

TBD 

>200 

personnel 

Source: Recological Systems Limited non-binding MOU proposal 




703. Pertaining to the port’s business plan, the focus will be on export and import services and 

other associated maritime services such as a standby emergency response. The latter 

seems quite an interesting proposal; as such, services are rare in the Caribbean. Possible 

options include not only servicing for vessels calling in Belize, but also other that navigate 

in neighbouring waters. With regard to exports and imports, there are major uncertainties, 

though. On exports, the main expectations consist of winning major parts of the export 

traffic for sugar, molasses and citrus. Even so, this may be far from reality, especially for 

sugar. Belize Sugar Industries production increase aims, in effect, at doubling the current 

production but most of the additional production will be packaged sugar exported in 

containers. The sensible option for that traffic will be the Port of Belize. The other main 

sugar producer, Santander Group, has signed a binding contract for the next ten years 

with the Port of Big Creek and they have invested in bulk storage. It seems unrealistic that 

under such conditions they will quickly shift their traffic to another port, at least in the 

medium term. Excluding the sugar volumes, the port traffic may not reach a level that 

would justify the profitability of the port operations. Regarding imports, the prospects are 

not more optimistic; most of the imports are in containers and all the storage and 

distribution infrastructure (and operators) is based in Belize City, the major consumption 

center of the country. For that traffic, the natural gate will remain in the Port of Belize, 

unless major congestion appears in it. Having a deep-water port is attractive, but that does 

not imply that very big vessels will call in Belize. There is no demand in the country that 

justify bringing big container vessels (to give an example, the liner from Jamaica calling 

weekly in Port of Belize carries 250-300 containers). The geographical location of the 

country is not so favourable either to make of it a natural hub even with low hinterland 

traffic. Other ports in the region have that role already. 

704. The promoters of the port have shown their willingness to explore opportunities for the 

export of non-traditional products, such as, beans, grains, poultry, or other agricultural 

products that would develop in Dangriga. The possibility of installing a tire factory was also 

raised. At this stage, these are potential projects that would require significant effort by 

various sectors and public entities. If the Government had the political will to make serious 

investments in such projects and in the Dangriga area, there might be possibilities for 

success and the impacts on economic development in that area of the country could be 

positive, indeed. It would require changing the focus of the project from a “Commerce 

Bight Port Project” to a “Dangriga Region Development Project”. However, the political will 

to initiate such projects has not been perceived, let alone the financial resources required 

for their implementation. It is important to emphasize this especially when a project 

entwines with political promises. 

705. On the institutional side, this option could entail major changes in the Ports Management 

model of the country, today exclusively based on Service Ports (fully private). The GOB, 

through Belize Ports Authority, would remain the landowner (hence a Landlord Port model) 

with the private entity operating under concession. This would potentially increase the 

power of the public sector on ports, but that would depend on the final content of the 

concession contract. 

706. All things considered, Option 3 bears major risks. The construction of the Commerce Bight 

Port may result in three (3) freight ports operating with low traffic volumes. This will hinder 

their financial viability and the quality of service at the ports could deteriorate. In addition, 

it is not likely that Commerce Bight would be an appropriate solution for a potential 

congestion on container traffic in Belize City. Finally, it risks harming the relations between 

the GOB and the other two port operators. 

707. Hence, only with strong political support and resources it may be a viable alternative. 




Comparison 

708. The following table summarizes the options presented as well as their advantages and 

disadvantages. 

Table 6-21: 

Summary of Port Configurations for Freight and Cruises 

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 

Projects 

Cost 

Advantages 

Disadvantag 

es 

- Cruise Terminal in the Port 

of Magical Belize 

- Development of a 


and a bulk facility in Port of 

Belize 


Terminal in Port of Magical 

Belize 

- 30 M USD for the 

development of the second 

berth and the bulk facility in 

Port Belize 

- Most cost-efficient solution 

- Container and bulk traffic 

bottlenecks solved for a 

long period 

- High potential for 

development of touristic 

activities south of Belize 

City 

- Better first point of landing 

in Belize for cruise tourists 

- Capacity for bigger cruise 

vessels (Oasis class 12 m 

draught) compared to the 

project in Port of Belize 

- Bypasses Belize City traffic, 

more time for tourists in the 

rest of the country 



activities 

- Proper separation of cruise 

and freight activities 

- Funding for the Port of 

Magical Belize not secured 

- The Port of Belize Limited 

has taken several steps on 

project preparation for the 

Cruise Terminal so it might 

be difficult to make them 

change their minds 

- Likely negative impact on 



sector 

- Cruise Terminal in the Port of - Cruise Terminal in Port of 

Belize 

Belize 

- Reclaim land in Port of - Port of Commerce Bight as 

Belize to develop a 

alternative freight solution 


and a bulk facility 

due to lack of developments 

in Port of Belize 


Terminal in Port of 

Belize(amount to be updated 

after dredging explorations) 

- 60 M USD (optimistic) for the 

alternative option of 

multipurpose second berth in 




Port of Belize – some 

infrastructure already 

existing and ongoing 

dredging exploration 

- Second berth with direct 

access to the container yard 

(no trestle) good for 

optimizing operations and 

reducing vulnerability 



activities 

- Likely positive impact on the 

economy of Belize City 


sector 

- Risk on the capacity for the 

port owner to implement both 

projects at the same time 


activities in the same location 



- Bigger maintenance costs on 

dredging in the long term 

- Potential lack of space for 

manoeuvring in the turning 

basin for big freight vessels 


Terminal 

- 133 M USD for Commerce 

Bight Port 

Fully private funding 

- Deep sea water port 

- Additional useful services 

proposed as marine salvage 

- Potential to develop 

Dangriga region if 

accompanied with other 

investments and political will 

- Increased capacity of GOB 

to influence the ports sector 

by being the owner of the 

port 




- Serious uncertainties on the 

capacity to attract bulk and 

container traffic, and hence 

on the financial viability of 

the port 

- The funding is not certain 

- If implemented without other 

parallel developments, risk to 

become a white elephant 


activities in the same location 






709. Based on the analysis undertaken, Option 1 is the configuration that seems to balance 

more efficiently costs (and therefore readiness for implementation) together with a 

potential for development. The major risk is the capacity of the Port of Magical Belize to 

secure funding in the short term. If that initiative does not become reality, Option 2 would 

be the logical choice, provided there is an engagement by the owner of the Port of Belize 

to develop freight operations, also. Otherwise, only Option 3 would remain, and as it was 

stated, it would require major efforts to make it successful. 

The decision regarding the cruise terminal should thoughtfully consider the urgency of 

solving the country's port capacity constraints for freight handling given the higher level of 

economic return by exports. 

710. Annex 10 provides a simplified financial evaluation of the three port options for freight. As 

expected, Option A gets the highest NPV and IRR. 

Air Transport Projects and Measures 


711. According to the Belize’s Department of Civil Aviation (BDCA), Belize has one of the 

busiest air space in Central America. There is a high number of small aircraft operating 

services to many domestic airports and, combined with a lack of sufficient air traffic 

controllers and the fact that airports operate during daylight hours only, airspace 

congestion can occur. Officials from the BDCA have stressed the existing risk of accidents 

if the current situation continues over time. The risk is likely to increase with the increase 

of traffic, unless some remedial measures are taken. 

712. The identified strategy to face the challenge is two-fold and combines institutional and 

infrastructure development elements. 

713. On the institutional side, it is necessary to train more air traffic controllers, a measure 

already proposed in the Short -Term Action Plan. Moreover, to better prioritise the air 

traffic in PGIA, an ‘air slots’ system should be implemented to avoid a concentration of 

flights in short periods, as it is the case today. In the short term, the measure to 

“Restructure the Regulatory Oversight of the Civil Aviation Sector” (see Section 6.2.4) 

includes capacity building for DCA and BAA. It would be suitable to include in the capacity 

building program some modules on air traffic management, exploring in detail the options 

for implementing air slots. The revision of the measures should also include the 

postponement of the creation of a Civil Aviation Authority, which was initially suggested, 

as today there are obvious difficulties to implement it. 

714. On the infrastructure side, a crucial issue is to increase the effective capacity in PGIA. 

This could be done with improvements to the airport, some of them required as well for 

safety reasons. In parallel, another option is to push the local air carriers to shift to bigger 

aircrafts, at least to serve the main touristic destinations, namely San Pedro and 

Placencia. Implementation of such a scheme would require both airports to be relocated. 

The relocation would help to free some capacity at PGIA. 

715. Consequently, the medium and long-term measures proposed are as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

Capacity increase of Philip Goldson International Airport 

Relocation of San Pedro Municipal Airport; 

Relocation or expansion of Placencia Airport. 




6.3.5.2. Philip Goldson International Airport Capacity Increase 


716. The current airfield at Philip Goldson International Airport consists of a single runway 

designated as 07-25 which is 2950m long by 46m wide (ICAO Classification 4D). There is 

a partial parallel taxiway to this runway, which extends over a length of just over 800m 

from the passenger-terminal area and the GA area to the end of the Runway 07. There 

are two (2) connecting taxiways to the runway from the passenger terminal ramp located 

at approximately 850m and 1000m from the threshold of Runway 07. These were most 

likely the original connections between the runway and the passenger terminal apron 

before the parallel taxiway was constructed to the end of 07. The parallel taxiway, 

connecting taxiways and apron taxiway, have a pavement width and bearing that can 

accommodate aircrafts up to Code E aircraft (maximum wingspan of 65m), but the taxiway 

along the main apron can only accommodate Code D aircraft (maximum wingspan of 52m) 

due to clearance limitations of the aircraft tails parked there. 

717. Based on prevailing winds in the area and on the current airfield configuration, it is 

assumed that the predominant operations would have take-offs and landings on Runway 

07. This would require landing aircrafts to turn around on the runway and then backtrack 

to one of the 90 0 connecting taxiways to exit the runway. Smaller aircraft, such as Cessna 

208, will stop and turn around quite quickly and may require little backtracking. However, 

all 737s and A320s operated by various North American carriers would require significant 

backtracking. 

718. The capacity of the current airfield system is estimated at about 20-25 movements per 

hour depending on the mix of traffic during the peak periods. Currently, during busy 

periods, this capacity is being exceeded, with significant delays reported at times. Some 

of the peaking and delays arise because aircraft operations are limited to daylight hours 

only, as none of the other domestic airports, which feed PGIA, has any airfield lighting. 

Description of Actions 

Airside – Taxiway and Runway 

719. The existing parallel taxiway should be extended all the way to the 25-end of the runway. 

This can be accomplished along the existing alignment as there is just enough distance 

between the runway and the parallel roadway (International Airport Road) to accomplish 

this as illustrated in the Figure below 28 . In fact, the taxiway cannot be located any closer 

to the runway as it is currently at 182.5m (about 600 ft.) from the runway centerline, the 

minimum standard for runway/taxiway separations for Code E operations to accommodate 

overseas flights. 

720. A full parallel taxiway would increase the airfield capacity to about 40-45 movements per 

hour and would allow the airport to satisfy forecast growth to, at least, the end of the 20- 

year planning period. 

721. The taxiway would not have to be constructed all at once and it can in fact be built in two 

(2) phases as illustrated the Figure 6-12. The first phase could potentially increase 

capacity to 30-35 movements per hour. If capital funds are problematic (which they always 

are), it may be possible to build the extended taxiway in 3 phases, thus spreading the 

28 

The distance between the runway centerline and the airport property fence that runs along the International Airport 

Road is approximately 243m. Per ICAO Annex 14, for Code E operations, the distance from runway to taxiway 

centerlines must be at least 182.5m for Code E operations. The taxiway clearance from centerline to objects should 

then be 43.5m which adds to 226m. This leaves a buffer of about 17m to locate an airside perimeter security road. 




costs over a longer period of time. Additional analysis of the phasing and capacity gains 

for each phase should be conducted in advance of preliminary design of this extension to 

determine the timing required, capacity gains and better cost estimates. 

722. The existing runway length is considered to be sufficient to be capable of handling future 

flights to Europe with such aircraft as Airbus 330, 350 and Boeing 777, 787 aircraft, or 

even Boeing 767, though these are slowly disappearing. These flights would probably be 

limited to the Atlantic coast & Mediterranean countries (effectively most of Western 

Europe), though, depending on aircraft configuration, longer flight distances may be 

possible further inland. 

Figure 6-12: Scheme for the New Taxiway at PGIA 

723. It should be noted here that the 25 threshold is located too close to the International Airport 

Road that runs around the end of the runway. Calculations show that the threshold should 

be displaced by around 200-250m depending on the relative elevations at the end of this 

runway for the Runway 25 approach surface to adequately clear the vehicles using the 

roadway that passes under the approach, as illustrated in Figure 6-13. (Note that this 

assessment is based on Google photos, Google Earth, and aerial photos). In addition, it 

appears that the Runway End Safety Area (RESA) 29 at the 07-end of the runway does not 

meet the requirements for RESA as from maps available and Google Earth. It appears 

that a swamp comes within about 100m of the physical end of the runway. This should be 

confirmed by field measurements. 

29 

ICAO Annex 14 3.5.3 states a RESA shall be provided for such a runway as at PGIA (Code 4) and this RESA shall 

extend to 90m beyond the 60m runway strip (for a total of 150m beyond the threshold). And in 3.5.4, it states that a 

RESA should extend as far as practical up to 300m from the runway end. 




Figure 6-13: Violation of Approach Surface at 25 End of Runway 

Landside - Terminal 

724. The main passenger terminal at the 

airport is a two-story building comprising 

about 10,000m 2 . The building comprises 

terminals 1 and 2, including facilities for 

international arrivals, international and 

domestic departures, domestic arrivals, 

as well as retail and services. The 

terminal does not meet international 

(ICAO) standards for separating 

international arriving and departing 

passenger flows. 

725. The BACC is currently part way through 

a BD 22M expansion program to the 

terminal that will extend the baggage 

claim area, add check-in counters and expand the immigration and the departure hall. In 

addition, the apron area is being expanded by 2 aircraft stands. 

726. In 2017 the terminal handled about 1 million passengers with 80% of these international 

and the remainder domestic. The terminal is currently at effective capacity, handling 1 

million passengers per / 10,000m 2 (about 108,000 sq.ft.). For a terminal this size with the 

level of international operations, closer to 12,000m 2 (about 129,000 sq.ft.) would typically 

be required. To handle the projected 2 million passengers by the end of the 20-year 

planning period of the current master plan, the passenger terminal will need to be nearly 

doubled in size to around 20,000m 2 (about 215,000 sq.ft.), at an estimated cost of about 

USD 50M 30 . The issue of separating arriving and departing passenger flows should be 

dealt with during the subsequent expansions’ stages. 

Apron 

30 

This cost is estimated roughly at US$ 4,000 per m2 of new space x 10,000m2 plus an allowance for 

renovations/changes to the existing building for this to function with the new changes. 




727. The main aircraft ramp serving the terminals is close to 70,000m 2 (753,500 sq.ft.) in size 

and can currently accommodate up to ten (10) jet aircraft as illustrated in the following 

figure. There is a program underway that would see these ten (10) positions increased to 

12 positions by expanding the apron to the west. The noted ten (10) positions assume all 

jets on the apron. However, on the larger stands (Code D), up to 3 smaller aircraft e.g. 

Cessna Caravan or Beech 1900 can be parked as shown in the figure. The apron capacity 

can also be further enhanced by parking three (3) Code C aircraft on the 2 Code D apron 

positions. 

728. The largest aircraft that can be accommodated on the current apron is a Boeing 767-300W 

(which is an ICAO Code D aircraft). Larger aircraft (Code E) such as A330s, B787s, 

B777s, can be accommodated on the runway and the taxiways, but would require special 

procedures for operating on the apron, due to the reduced wingtip clearances along the 

apron taxiway. 

729. Based on experience at similarly sized airports, 5-6 aircraft stands should typically be 

sufficient to handle approximately 1 million annual passengers. However, at PGIA, due to 

the high peaking, partly accentuated by the fact that flights typically operate during daylight 

hours, the number of stands associated with one million annual passengers seems to be 

somewhat higher than this level. As traffic grows over time, and as the operating daytime 

is extended possibly through overseas flights to Europe, in addition to some growth in 

average aircraft size as carriers (both US and domestic) move to larger aircraft, the 

peaking should spread somewhat and become less severe than it currently is. It may be 

possible with these changes that the planned twelve (12) aircraft stands may be sufficient 

to handle the forecast growth to the end of the 20-year planning period, especially given 

the more intense use possible by having two (2) to three (3) props use one (1) larger jet 

stand and allowing 3 737/A320s on the 2 767 stands, among other operating efficiencies. 

Should this not prove to be the case, there is space to add some domestic prop stands to 

the east end of the current apron, and there is the capability to further extend the apron to 

the west to provide additional stands. However, no cost estimates have been prepared for 

any additional apron expansion. 

Figure 6-14: Apron Capacity Scheme 




Institutional Considerations 

730. It is the responsibility of BACC to implement and fund the capacity extension of PGIA. The 

current concession contract does not include any provision forcing the concessionaire to 

make investments depending on traffic congestion levels, so the Government of Belize 

must be active in raising this issue with BACC. If nothing is done and the traffic continues 

to increase, waiting times for departures and landings will increase generating negative 

impacts on the passengers. Moreover, a potential accident would have disastrous 

consequences for a country so highly dependent on tourism, as Belize. 


731. Due to the difficulties to estimate the cost and details of some improvements, it is 

recommended that an Airport Master Plan for PGIA be prepared, including feasibility 

studies for the improvements in the medium term. Consequently, a new short-term 

measure has been included proposing the undertaking of the study. One recommendation 

is to undertake the necessary legislative changes in other to require airports and ports to 

develop a Master Plan every 4-5 years. In order homogenize the project preparation 

process it is recommended to undertake the necessary legislative changes to require 

airports to develop a Master Plan every 4-5 years (through a bylaw enacted by the Ministry 

of Tourism and Civil Aviation). This could also be suitable for the ports sector (in that case, 

the regulation should be prepared by the MoT with the support of BPA). 

732. To handle the current high traffic and the forecast growth, as well as, manage (if 

implemented) the extension of operating hours, it is important to train and employ more 

air traffic controllers. 

733. The taxiway extension is the single biggest infrastructure/capacity issue. It should be 

addressed with priority in the PGIA Master Plan. In parallel, if the airport in Placencia is 

expanded and San Pedro is relocated, bigger aircrafts will be operating in the medium 

term; this would have a positive impact on air traffic management at PGIA, and it may be 

possible to postpone some of the investments. 

734. Finally, the terminal extension was considered necessary by 2035, but likely a first phase 

extension of the taxiway (see Airside – Taxiway and Runway sub-section above) should 

be done by 2025. 

Financial Implications 

735. The taxiway extension is expected to cost approximately USD 30 million depending on 

the final design and soil conditions, among other local factors. The first phase would cost 

an estimated USD 15 million, though it may be possible to build the taxiway in three (3) 

phases that could reduce the phase 1 cost to just over USD 10 million. 

736. By 2035, the doubling of the passenger terminal needed to handle the projected 2 million 

passengers, will have estimated cost of about USD 50 million. Of those, it is likely that a 

first expansion of USD 15-20 million will be necessary by 2025. 

737. These investments should be funded, a priori, by BACC although the Government of 

Belize has no means today to force the concessionaire to carry out these investments. 

This topic might be one of the elements of the renegotiation of the concession contract 

suggested in the Short-Term Action Plan. 


738. The main indicators for this action will be the following: 




n Airport Master Plan in Belize City completed by 2019-2020 

n Other improvement deadlines to be defined in the master plan (in particular threshold 

25 displacement, as it will require land acquisition) 

739. The deadlines may change following the results of the Airport Master Plan. 

6.3.5.3. Relocation of San Pedro Municipal Airport 


740. The Town of San Pedro is located on Ambergris Caye about 50km (31 miles) to the north 

of Belize City. Ambergris Caye extends nearly 40km from the southwest to the northeast 

and is about 7km (4.3 miles) at its widest point, though 4km (2.5 miles) is more common 

width. It is bordered by the Caribbean Sea to the east and a long beautiful inland bay to 

the west. San Pedro is located near the southern tip of the Caye. 

Figure 6-15: Existing Municipal Airport in San Pedro 

741. The existing airport serving San Pedro is located right in the city and is virtually surrounded 

by 

existing 

developments. The 

existing runway is 3,500 

ft (1070m) x 60 ft (18m). 

To be able to carry out 

safe operations, a 

runway strip of 131 ft 

(40m) wide each side of 

runway centerline should 

be kept clear of objects 

as well as a transitional 

surface of 20% 

emanating from the edge 

of this strip. The current 

adjacent development is 

right up close to the 

runway violating the 

runway strip (some roads 




and some buildings are as close as 25m to the runway centerline and some buildings 

violate the transitional surface). 

742. Figure 6-16 illustrates the issues associated with the runway strip, transitional zoning, and 

approach surfaces. The dashed grey lines are the 40m (131 ft) runway strip and 60m (197 

ft) beyond. Also shown is the approach/departure surface at the 24-end. According to 

ICAO this would be a Code 2 runway and it is visual only. It would require a 40m strip 

each side of the runway, 60m end strip and approach surface with 10% divergence. 

743. As the airport is in proximity of adjacent developments and given the high traffic volumes 

causing noise and related safety problems, it is urgent that this airport be relocated 

elsewhere where it would be more compatible with busy airport operations. 

Figure 6-16: San Pedro Airport Violations 


744. A new airport to replace the current one should have the following characteristics: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Be capable of at least serving larger aircrafts, with 18 – 50 seats. 

Be suitable for serving international private aviation. 

Have a runway length of 5,000 ft max (though given the limitations of the width 

of the island, a runway in the low to mid 4,000 ft might be suitable) x 100 ft wide. 

Provide sufficient land area to develop the appropriate facilities, e.g. terminals, 

GA hangars, emergency response, fueling. 

Be located in an area that would allow development and protection of the 

appropriate obstacle limitation surfaces for the airport. 

Have convenient road access to San Pedro. 

Provide a land area in the order of 200ha (494 acres), though this could be as 

small as 120ha (296 acres). 

Figure 6-17: Scheme of the new airport characteristics 




745. A rough template for a new airport could look as illustrated in the figure above. The runway 

shown is 5,000 ft long with appropriate runway protection zones at each end and adequate 

allocation of space to the north to protect for obstacle penetrations. Generous areas are 

shown for taxiway development, apron, buildings and parking access. The rough size of 

the rectangular area of such an airport would be about 2,700m long x 750m wide, with a 

total area of roughly 200ha. The width could be reduced to about 450m instead of 750m, 

if minimum allocations were provided for the illustrated functions, reducing the total area 

required to about 120ha. Depending on availability of land, this size could be reduced 

further. These areas and dimensions are ideal for an airport this size. 

746. The figure below illustrates three areas where a new modern airport could be constructed 

to serve the needs of Ambergris Cay and San Pedro. Given the narrowing of the island to 

the south, as well as the existence of mangroves along much of the western side of the 

island, and especially to the south, there are no appropriate land areas to construct a new 

airport to the south of San Pedro. All of the potential sites where a new airport might be 

constructed are shown located to the north. Site 1 is some 8 km north of San Pedro, while 

sites 2 and 3 are 18 km and 25km north of the current town, respectively. These were 

identified via aerial photos on Google Earth. The land ownership of these parcels is 

unknown. 




Figure 6-18: Potential Areas for a New Domestic Airport in Ambergris Caye 

747. At this point, it is not intended to recommend a specific new site for a new airport but to 

show that potential sites appear to exist. Additional work would be required for site 

investigations, especially concerning the extent of the mangroves at each of the sites, 

what the soils and ground water conditions might be, as well as, what remediation might 

be possible if mangroves need to be compensated for, and to determine the land 

ownership of each potential site. 


748. The Belize Airports Authority would be the entity responsible of implementing this action. 

It is likely that for both the preliminary studies and for the construction phase, if the final 

option was a public airport, will require financial support from GOB. The project can attract 

private operators. 


749. Between planning, design and construction about three (3) years would be required for 

the new airport to be operational. However, a site selection study would first be required, 

then land acquisition would need to take place, and then there is the political decisionmaking 

process and financing issues to deal with. These latter timelines are difficult to 

estimate. Therefore, the airport master plan for San Pedro proposed in the Short-Term 

Action Plan is essential. 


750. Very rough order of magnitude costs estimates for a new airport site would be in the range 

of USD 15 million for a runway, taxiways and apron, USD 5 million for 




terminal/parking/roads, for a total of some USD 20 million. In addition to these basic costs, 

there would be site servicing, road access and other costs that are difficult to determine 

at this point, but in the range of USD 5 million may be appropriate, assuming there would 

not be any significant environmental issues to deal with. These costs assume the runway 

would be day use only. An additional USD 2 million or so would be required to provide a 

full airfield lighting package. These costs also exclude any land acquisition costs. 

Unless an agreement with a private operator is found, this investment should be 

funded by the Government of Belize. 



n Airport Master Plan in San Pedro completed by 2019-2020; 

n Land acquisition finished by 2022; 

n Airport operating by 2025. 

752. The deadlines may change if there is any adjustment to the timeline for the completion of 

the Airport Master Plan. 

6.3.5.4. Placencia Airport 


753. The village of Placencia is located at the southern tip of the Placencia Peninsula, which 

extends nearly 25km south from Riversdale Village, located just at the beginning of the 

peninsula. The peninsula is quite narrow, being less than 100m at its narrowest and close 

to 1200m at its widest section. There are a number of smaller settlements between these 

two villages. 

Figure 6-19: 

Placencia area 

754. The airport at Placencia is currently located on a wider part of the peninsula just about 

3km north of Placencia Village. The airport consists of a single east-west runway 2,135 ft 

(650m) long x 25 ft (8m) wide designated as 07/25. In addition, there are two small terminal 




buildings for each of the domestic carriers, namely, Tropic Air and Maya Island Air, an 

associated apron connected directly to the runway, and some additional general aviation 

development. 

755. The two domestic carriers provide services to Belize International, as well as, a variety of 

other domestic destinations. The airport typically handles over 6,000 landings per year 

according to BAA data or an average of just over 20 landings per day. This makes it the 

4 th busiest airport in Belize for runway movements, after Belize International, Belize 

Municipal, and John Grief II (San Pedro) airports. 

756. The main road along the length of the peninsula runs just under the east end of the runway, 

violating the runway strip, and violating the approach surface. This issue is dealt with by 

placing gates across the roadway to stop traffic when aircraft are landing or departing. 

While this runway is located at one of the widest parts of the island (about 1000m), there 

may be little room to extend the runway very much due to what appear to be mangroves 

located at the west end of the runway and the need to maintain the roadway across the 

east end of the runway. 

757. The current runway length is sufficient to handle the Cessna 208 (Caravans) which 

typically have 9 seats and are operated by the two domestic carriers in Belize. However, 

to handle larger aircraft with anywhere from 35 to 50 seats (like DH83, D328) it would 

require at least a 4,000 ft runway. Something like 4,500 ft would be preferable, while 5,000 

ft would be desirable to handle larger props like the ATRs, Q400 or even a Sh360 or Saab 

340. Interestingly, even just to handle mid-size props like the 18/19 seat B1900, Metro III, 

or Embraer 110 31 would still require a 4,500-5,000 ft runway. However, there are some 

mid-sized aircraft in the 20 +/- seat category, like the DH6/Twin Otter, and the Dornier 228 

that could operate off runways in the order of 3,000 ft. As well, aircraft like the DH8- 

100/200 (37 seats) could operate off a 3,000 ft runway given the short distances for most 

of the flights. Given the width of the peninsula, the mangroves to the west and the main 

road and the sea to the east, make it difficult to extend the current runway to handle any 

aircraft bigger than the 18-20 seaters noted. 

Figure 6-20: Existing Domestic Airport in Placencia 

31 

These are the most common aircraft used to service many of the out islands in the Bahamas by many of the Bahamian 

domestic operators, though Bahamas Air uses 50 seat ATR42s and 70 seat ATR72s. 





758. Two options have been considered to continue to provide services to the Placencia 

Peninsula and to satisfy potential growth in traffic. 

759. Option 1 would be to extend the current runway to its maximum length (~3,000 ft). As 

noted above, the domestic carriers would have limited opportunities with respect to what 

larger aircraft they may be able to operate in the future. Nonetheless, it appears that Tropic 

Air may have already acquired or is considering acquiring Twin Otters so the fact that 

choices may be limited may become moot. 

760. Option 2 would be to purchase, or somehow negotiate for, the assets of the privately held 

Placencia International Airport located just 3 km to the west of Riversdale at the north end 

of the Placencia Peninsula. This new international airport started construction a number 

of years ago, but work was halted when the private investors ran out of money (in 2013) 

and nothing seems to have happened since. This airport has an 8,400 ft (2,570m) x 150 

ft (45m) runway and an approximate 18,000m 2 of apron space. Based on Google Earth 

imagery, and other web-based information, it appears that pavements are at the stage 

that the pavement base is fully developed, merely awaiting the asphalt surfaces to be 

constructed. The planned control tower has the foundations installed while the passenger 

terminal seems to be at least fully shelled out and enclosed. Road access is complete, 

with the airport having been built right adjacent to the main highway serving the greater 

area. 

Figure 6-21: Unfinished International Airport in Riversdale 

761. The Belize Airports Authority (through the Belize government) could choose to negotiate 

the completion of necessary works at the airport so that the peninsula (and adjacent area) 

would have a larger airport than possible at the current Placencia airport site. The first 

phase of this development could be limited to paving only a 4,500-5,000 ft portion of the 

runway to accommodate larger prop aircraft like the ATR, DH8, B1900, Q400, D328, 

among others. Such a length would also accommodate smaller to mid-size private jets like 

the Lear 40/45, Beechjet 400, most of the Cessna Citations, Falcon 50, among others. 

Similarly, only an appropriate portion of the main apron would need to be completed to 

handle the initial operations of Maya Island Air and Tropic Air. Over time, the facilities 

could be expanded as required or be built out to the initial plans, as appropriate. 

762. To pave the runway to about 4,500 ft x 100 ft should cost in the range of some USD 5 

million. Adding lighting (including PAPIs, approach lights, edge lights, etc.) could add 




some USD 2 million to this estimate. Paving a portion of the apron to accommodate 

domestic services (assume half or so of the current apron) would add another USD 1 

million. As a domestic airport the control tower would not need to be operational and it is 

unknown what the costs of completing any of the terminal building works for the regional 

airlines might be, but these costs could potentially be borne by the regional operators 

themselves. 

763. Based on the above, taking over the current unfinished private airport could be a costeffective 

means of providing improved services to the Placencia Peninsula. The noted 

costs exclude any acquisition related to purchase the lands and existing assets from the 

current private developer. These could be much more than the costs noted above. 

764. The recommended option for this planning exercise would be to try to make use of the 

private airport in Riversdale, if this were possible. There is a good base of facilities here 

that could be expanded incrementally as required or desired. This site is also convenient 

for serving the northern and central portions of the peninsula and opening up greater areas 

for future developments. With the potential for a long runway and future international 

services, it could open-up the area to greater market access for direct flights to many more 

destinations. Should this not be possible due to political and other issues, then, the option 

of expanding the Placencia Airport should be considered. 


765. The action should be implemented by BAA. Due to the institutional situation of the 

unfinished airport, private operators might be involved in the development of the airport 

and hence other agencies of the GOB might be involved, as well. The institutional 

arrangement will need to be further clarified during the preliminary studies and after 

discussions with the private owner and potential private operators. 

766. It is likely that for both the preliminary studies and for the construction phase (if the final 

option was a public airport) will require financial support from GOB. 


767. Even if the relocation of the airport would be suitable in the medium term, the situation in 

Placencia seems a bit less urgent than in San Pedro. If it were impossible to implement 

the improvements suggested in PGIA, the project in Placencia would become more 

relevant to decrease air traffic congestion which occurs because of the service provided 

to bigger aircrafts. In any case, an airport master plan & feasibility study will be required 

in the short term to refine the schedule and project costs. This was added as new shortterm 

measure. 


768. For Option 2, to pave the runway to about 4,500 ft x 100 ft should cost in the range of 

some USD 5 million. Adding lighting could add some USD 2 million to this estimate. Paving 

a portion of the apron to accommodate domestic services would add another USD 1 

million. That makes a total of USD 8 million. As mentioned, the noted costs exclude any 

acquisition related costs to purchase the lands and existing assets from the current private 

developer. These could be very much more than the costs noted above. 

Monitoring dimensions 





n Airport Master Plan in Placencia completed by 2019-2020; 

n A PPP or acquisition contract is signed with the owner of the unfinished airport by 

2022; 

n Airport operating by 2025. 

770. The deadlines may change if there is any adjustment to the timeline for the completion of 

the Airport Master Plan. 




Logistics and Trade Facilitation Projects and Measures 

771. Based on the findings presented in precedent CNTMP reports and on meetings held with 

sector stakeholders, the proposals for the Medium and Long-Term Action Plan on the 

logistics and trade facilitation sector are the following: 

Medium Term 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Design of the Jalacte Border post following regular standards. 

Professionalization of road freight transport sector. 

Regulation and enforcement of weight limits and dimensions of freight vehicles. 

Generation of logistics statistics. 

Long Term 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Bcrossing infrastructure design according to the parameters of the regional strategy 

for Coordinated Border Management. 

Implementation of freight transport review centers. 

Renewal of trucks fleet. 

Elimination of cargo charged to Belizean trucks at the border with Mexico and 

Guatemala. 

Optimization of trade facilitation processes 

6.3.6.1. Design of the Jalacte Border Post following Regular Standards (2025) 


772. In the past, the Jalacte border was used as an informal border crossing for illegal crossing 

of cattle and people. To regularize this crossing, the Government of Belize established the 

federal agencies involved in PoE with minimal infrastructure. On the Guatemalan side, 

there is no presence of federal authorities. In addition, the highway infrastructure that 

connects to this PoE is almost complete in Belize´s side; however, there is no information 

about the construction status of this highway in Guatemala. However, according to 

stakeholders’ interviews and data obtained from the surveys, it is convenient to formalize 

this new PoE to generate a new corridor for trade and people crossings. 

773. The objective of the new PoE is to facilitate trade and travellers’ clearance and ensuring 

secure borders. The elements recommended to consider for an adequate planning of a 

new border crossing in Jalacte are: 

n 

Localization: Defined by signing a Memorandum of Understanding between 

Guatemala and Belize. The localization of a modern border station is subject to three 

major constraints: 

1. It should bring traffic but not generate congestion. 

2. It should be conveniently located. 

3. It should serve communities and business interests on both sides of the border. 

n 

n 

n 

Vocation of the border crossing: The Jalacte POE will serve pedestrian flows, privately 

owned vehicles (POV) and commercial freight vehicles; if necessary, it should also be 

capable of accommodating livestock flows. 

Link roads to highway corridors: It requires approximately 30 kms of connection with 

Southern Highway. 

Agencies with presence in the POE: Customs, Immigration, Ministry of Transport, 

Sanitary and Phytosanitary Authorities, Border Management Agency. 




n 

n 

Private sector and services: Commercial services include customs clearing brokers 

and exchange offices. Personal services include parking lots, fuel stations and 

mechanical repair shops, catering facilities. 

Infrastructure: Offices for management and supporting staff, inspection and clearance 

area, violations section, control room, services area. 

Proposed Action 

774. In general terms, the process to establish a POE is as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Conduction of a feasibility study defining the land, infrastructure, equipment and 

human resources needs, consulting both public and private stakeholders about the 

project. 

In parallel, conduct bi-national coordination with the federal agencies of Guatemala 

to define the localization of the POE through the signing of a Memorandum of 

Understanding (MoU). The agreement shall define a combined schedule signed by 

both sides to open the borders at a specific date (ideally not later than 2025). 

After the feasibility study and the agreement with Guatemala, the next step (that can 

start slightly before) is to search for funding. Such project, especially if it is a 

combined project with Guatemala, may attract funding from IDB, WB or other 

international donors, easily. If their participation were not possible, GOB budget 

should be requested in view of respecting the signed MoU. 

Prior to construction, it may be necessary to prepare the infrastructure and 

equipment final designs, especially if an international donor suggests or requires 

some changes in the project as a condition to provide the funding. 

This will follow the tendering process and the construction phase and will conclude 

with the commencement of service of the Point of Entry. 

775. Proposed configuration: The minimum elements considered for a medium-term action are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Primary inspection lanes in direction to Belize: two lanes for POV, an exclusive lane 

for commercial freight vehicles and pedestrian sidewalks. 

Secondary inspection facilities for commercial freight vehicles. 

Quarantine area and violations section. 

Building for administrative offices of federal agencies and control room. 

Services area, restrooms and parking. 

Two-lane road to return to Guatemala. 

Reserve area for future expansion. 

Non-intrusive inspection (NII) technology is not considered as part of the first operation 

phase. 

Weighbridge for inspection and verification of freight vehicles. 

776. It is recommended to consider a modular development and investment in the planning of 

the POE as demand increases. The identified infrastructure must be modelled to include 

the latest codes of practice and design, to consider regional trade facilitation standards. 

For PoE operations should be considered the implementation of systems such as One 

Stop Border Post (OSBP). 





777. The estimated investment cost for feasibility studies, design, construction and start-up of 

the POE is 12 million BZD. 

Institutional dimensions 

778. It is necessary for the collaboration of all federal agencies that would be present at the 

border crossing from the planning phase to the operations start. At least, the following 

agencies should be involved: Belize Bureau of Standards (BBS), National Committee on 

Trade Facilitation (NCTF), Border Management Agency (BMA), Belize Agicultural Health 

Authority (BAHA), Ministry of Trade, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, the 

Environment and Sustainable Development and Immigration. In addition, during the 

negotiation and design phase, the participation of the Ministry of Economic Development, 

Petroleum, Investment, Trade and Commerce, Ministry of Works, Ministry of Foreign 

Affairs and Ministry of Defence is recommended. 


779. The implementation schedule proposed is as follows: 

Action 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

Feasibility 

MoU 

Funding resources 

Final Design 

Construction 

Commence service 

6.3.6.2. Professionalization of Road Freight Transport Sector 


780. There is a lack of regulation, control or statistics of carriers, vehicles and drivers. 

According to the IDB and stakeholder’s interviews, the shortcomings of Belize in the matter 

can be summarized in the following topics: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Regulations on special permits for transport of goods (refrigerated, dangerous goods, 

etc.). 

Regulations for vehicle conditions to undertake activity. 

Regulations related to access to the activity/market. 

Legal aspects related to drivers training (operator training). 

Other regulations (related to limited use of infrastructure, etc.). 


781. The MoT would issue and enforce a regulatory framework to consolidate and define road 

transport services in the country through the following measures: 

n 

Short-term actions in terms of transport regulation. 




n 

Regulation of minimum conditions of operation and maintenance of road freight 

transport vehicles. 

782. The enforcement of the proposed regulatory framework should be carried out by trained 

staff of involved agencies, complemented with a program to communicate, disseminate 

the regulations to carriers and drivers and train them on their application. 

783. A monitoring and control unit in charge of collecting statistics on freight transport by road 

should be established with the aim of providing tools in planning and investment sector in 

the future. The management of this data is proposed to be managed by the MoT in 

conjunction with The Central Information Technology Office (CITO). Chapter 7 describes 

in more detail the proposed institutional arrangement for the implementation of the 

CNTMP, including the monitoring and control unit. 


784. Due to the current limitations of staff in MoT, it is preferable to contract a regional 

consultant for 3 men-month to support the MoT in preparing the regulation and training 

agencies’ staff, carriers and drivers. An estimated cost of 60,000 BZD was considered. 

785. For the monitoring center and the generation of statistics, there is no need for additional 

resources since it is proposed to integrate this task into CITO funded by Taiwan Technical 

Assistance Program. 


786. The MoT shall be responsible for developing the regulatory framework, as well as, for its 

knowledge and application, and the statistical monitoring generated. The Central 

Information Technology Office shall be responsible for statistics generation. 



Action 

Development of the regulatory 

framework 

201 

8 

2019 

202 

0 

2021 

202 

2 

2023 

202 

4 

202 

5 

Staff training 

Dissemination and training of 

transporters and drivers 

Monitoring and generation of statistics 

6.3.6.3. Regulating and Enforcing Weight Limits and Dimensions of Cargo Vehicles 


788. There is a lack of regulation in the country of weights and dimensions for freight transport 

road vehicles, which increases the risk of accidents and infrastructure damage by 

overweight vehicles and inadequate dimensions. It also becomes an impediment to the 

negotiation of agreements for cross-border transport with neighboring countries. 





789. During the technical assistance proposed for MoT in the Short-Term Action Plan, it is 

expected that drafted regulations would be approved. This activity builds on that and 

focuses on the implementation of the drafted regulations. The main activities are: 

n 

n 

n 

Training of MoT personnel for the dissemination and application of this regulation. 

Installing weighbridges for road freight vehicles at strategic points on the road to verify 

compliance with regulations. 

Applying sanctions to vehicles that do not comply with the regulations. 

790. Given that road freight transport in Belize includes international trade of goods, the 

regulation for road freight transport should consider regional norms. These should include 

Guatemalan and Mexican norms, being the only countries with which Belize has trade with 

by roads. In addition, the Central American norms are included to give a reference 

framework (see Table 6-22 to Table 6-26). 

Table 6-22: 

Maximum Load Permitted per Vehicle Type in Guatemala and Mexico (t) 

Nomenclature Axles Wheels Vehicle 

Guatemala 

Mexico 

All Highways Rural Roads Dirt Roads 

B2 2 6 15.5 19 14.5 13 

B3 3 8 to 10 26 27.5 20 18.5 

B4 4 10 25 30.5 22.5 21 

C2 2 6 15.5 19 14.5 13 

C3 3 8 to 10 26 27.5 20 18.5 

C2-R2 4 14 29.5 37.5 NA NA 

C3-R2 5 18 36 44.5 NA NA 

C2-R3 5 18 - 51.5 NA NA 

C3-R3 6 22 39 44.5 NA NA 

Source: ACUERDO GUBERNATIVO 379-2010, Ministerio de Comunicaciones, Infraestructura y Vivienda de 

Guatemala (2010); NOM-012-SCT-2-2014, SCT Mexico (2014). 




Table 6-23: Maximum Load Permitted per Vehicle Type in Guatemala and Mexico (t) 

C3-R3 6 22 (continued) 

39 44.5 NA NA 

Nomenclature Axles Wheels Vehicle 

Guatemala 

Mexico 

All Highways Rural Roads Dirt Roads 

T2-S1 3 10 - 30 22.5 NA 

T2-S2 4 14 - 38 28 NA 

T2-S3 5 18 - 46.5 33.5 NA 

T3-S1 4 14 - 54 40 NA 

T3-S2 5 18 - 45.5 34.5 NA 

T3-S3 6 22 - 38.5 28 NA 

T2-S1-R2 5 18 38 47.5 NA NA 

T2-S2-R2 6 22 - 54.5 NA NA 

T2-S1-R3 6 22 - 54.5 NA NA 

T3-S1-R2 6 22 45 54.5 NA NA 

T3-S1-R3 7 26 - 60.5 NA NA 

T3-S2-R2 7 26 52 60.5 NA NA 

T3-S2-R3 8 30 - 66.5 NA NA 

T3-S2-R4 9 34 57 63 NA NA 

T2-S2-S2 6 33 - 60 NA NA 

T3-S2-S2 7 36 - 51.5 NA NA 

T3-S3-S2 8 30 - 58.5 NA NA 

Source: ACUERDO GUBERNATIVO 379-2010, Ministerio de Comunicaciones, Infraestructura y Vivienda de 

Guatemala (2010); NOM-012-SCT-2-2014, Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transporte Mexico (2014); 

791. Additionally, to the configuration of vehicle and maximum load permitted by road, there is 

another restriction by axle as follows: 




Table 6-24: 

Maximum Load Permitted per Axle in Guatemala (t) 

Axle Configuration 

Vehicle Configuration 

Guatemala 

Single two wheels 

Single four wheels 

Single drive, four 

wheels 

C 5.0 

T-S-R 5.0 

C 7.0 

T-S-R 7.0 

C 7.0 

T-S-R 7.0 

Double drive or 6- 

wheel tandem 

C 10.0 

T-S-R 10.0 

Double tandem or 8- 

wheels 

Double drive or 

tandem 8-wheels 

Triple tridem or 12- 

wheels 

C 10.0 

T-S-R 10.0 

C 10.0 

T-S-R 10.0 

C 20.0 

T-S-R 20.0 

Source: NOM-012-SCT-2-2014, SCT Mexico (2014); ACUERDO GUBERNATIVO 379-2010, Ministerio de 

Comunicaciones, Infraestructura y Vivienda de Guatemala (2010) 




Table 6-25: 

Maximum Load Permitted per Axle in Mexico (t) 

Axle Configuration 

Vehicle Configuration 

Mexico 

Highways Rural Roads Dirt Roads 

Single two wheels 

Single four wheels 

Single drive, four 

wheels 

C-R; T-S-R 6.5 5.5 5.0 

C; T-S 6.5 5.5 5.0 

C-R; T-S-R 10.0 8.0 7.0 

C; T-S 11.0 8.0 7.0 

C-R; TS-R 11.0 9.0 8.0 

C; T-S 12.5 9.0 8.0 

Double drive or 6- 

wheel tandem 

C-R; T-S-R 15.0 11.5 11.0 

C; T-S 17.5 11.5 11.0 

Double tandem or 8- 

wheels 

Double drive or 

tandem 8-wheels 

Triple tridem or 12- 

wheels 

C-R; T-S-R 17.0 13.5 12.0 

C; T-S 19.0 13.5 12.0 

C-R;T-S-R 18.0 14.5 13.5 

C; T-S 21.0 14.5 13.5 

C-R; T-S-R 23.5 20.0 NA 

C; T-S 26.5 20.0 NA 

Source: NOM-012-SCT-2-2014, Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transporte Mexico (2014) - NA: Not 

Allowed 

Table 6-26: 

Maximum Load Permitted per Axle in Central America (t) 

Truck Axle Type 

Trailer Axle Type 

Vehicle Type Simple Drive 

Truck Axle 

Trailer Axle Type 

Simple Double Triple Simple Double Triple 

C2 

5 

10 

Total (t) 

15 

C3 

5 

16.5 

21.5 

C4 

5 

20 

25 

T2-S1 

5 

9 

9 

23 

T2-S2 

5 

9 

16 

30 

T2-S3 

5 

9 

20 

34 

T3-S1 

5 

16 

9 

30 

T3-S2 

5 

16 

16 

37 

T3-S3 

5 

16 

20 

41 

Others 

----- 

----- 

----- 

----- 

----- 

----- 

----- 

Variable 

Source: ACUERDO CENTROAMERICANO SOBRE CIRCULACION POR CARRETERA, Secretaría de 

Integración Económica Centroamericana (2014). 





792. Contract a regional consultant for four (4) men-month to support in the preparation of the 

regulation and agencies staff training. An estimated cost of 80,000 BZD was considered. 

793. Installation of weighbridges for cargo vehicles in six (6) points of the country road network. 

An estimated cost of 7.8 million BZD was considered. 


794. The MoT would be responsible for developing the regulatory framework, as well as, 

dissemination and verification and application of sanctions on offending vehicles. The 

Ministry of Works would be responsible for the installation and operation of weighbridges 

on the roads. 



Action 

Development of the regulatory 

framework 

Staff training 

Dissemination and training of 

transporters and drivers 

Weighbridges installation 

Start of verification and sanction of 

compliance with the regulations of 

weights and dimensions 

201 

8 

201 

9 

202 

0 

202 

1 

202 

2 

202 

3 

202 

4 

202 

5 

6.3.6.4. Logistics Statistics Generation 


796. Currently Belize only counts with “Doing Business” indicator to compare its logistics 

performance with other countries. It’s the only one in the region that does not count with 

the Logistic Performance index (LPI) developed by World Bank. 


797. The action is focused on generating statistics to estimate the LPI for Belize: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Efficiency of the clearance process (i.e., speed, simplicity and predictability of 

formalities) by border control agencies, including customs. 

Quality of trade and transport related infrastructure (e.g., ports, railroads, roads, 

information technology). 

Ease of arranging competitively priced shipments. 

Competence and quality of logistics services (e.g., transport operators, customs 

brokers). 

Ability to track and trace consignments. 

Timeliness of shipments in reaching destination within the scheduled or expected 

delivery time. 




798. It is proposed that the MoT, in conjunction with The Central Information Technology Office 

(CITO), manages the data. 


799. For the monitoring center and the generation of statistics, there is no need for additional 

resources since is proposed to integrate this task into CITO funded by Taiwan Technical 

Assistance Program. 


800. Joint participation of the following agencies: 

n 

n 

Customs and Excise Department. 

Ministry of Transport. 


Action 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

Generation of statistics 

6.3.6.5. Border Crossing Infrastructure Design according to the Parameters of the 

Regional Strategy for Coordinated Border Management 


801. Customs currently located in Santa Elena and Benque Viejo lack NII (Non-Intrusive 

Inspection) technology for inspecting cargo vehicles entering Belizean territory. Manual 

inspections and clearance processes produce delays in transport times and over costs. 

802. The World Bank study "Doing Business" indicates that the cost to import a shipment to 

Belize is $763 USD, while to export it is $738 USD. This cost consists of border and 

documentary compliance. 


803. The action is focused on improving the cargo inspection capabilities in Santa Elena and 

Benque Viejo with the addition of equipment and infrastructure, as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Customs equipment acquisition with NII systems and/or Radiation Detection (gamma 

rays) Equipment (RDE) capabilities for Santa Elena POE. The acquisition of gammarays 

equipment should include the equipment supply, freight transport, installation, 

first year warranty and technical support. 

Modular expansion of inspection lanes for private owned vehicle (POV) and 

commercial freight vehicles according to the growth of demand. 

Weighbridge installation for verification of maximum permissible weights in freight 

vehicles. 

Construction of refrigerated warehouse for perishable products’ inspection. 

Improvements in laboratory capacity of BAHA (for plant health, animal health and food 

safety) at cross-border. 





804. The estimated costs considered for the item described in the above proposed action are 

as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Acquisition of gamma-rays equipment: 3.15 million BZD. 

Expansion of infrastructure: 4.05 million BZD. 

Installation of weighbridges: 1.3 million BZD. 

Construction of refrigerated facility: 1.35 million BZD. 

Improvements in laboratory of BAHA: 1.35 million BZD. 


805. There are several government bodies that would be responsible for the implementation of 

the action. The Border Management Agency and Customs would oversee the evaluation, 

acquisition and installation of the equipment with NII technology and the refrigerated 

warehouse. The Ministry of Works would oversee the evaluation, acquisition and 

installation of weighbridges and the construction of more inspection lanes. The Ministry of 

Transport would be responsible for verifying compliance with national regulations by the 

freight vehicles that enter the country through this border. Customs and Excise department 

would be responsible for the operations of the NII technology. BAHA would be responsible 

for the evaluation, acquisition, installation and operation of the laboratory improvements. 


Action 2026 

202 

7 

202 

8 

202 

9 

203 

0 

Evaluation, acquisition and installation of 

equipment with NII technology 

Expansion of inspection lanes for Private 

Owned Vehicle (POV) and commercial freight 

vehicles according to the growth of demand 

Weighbridge installation for the verification of 

maximum permissible weights in freight 

vehicles 

Expansion Improvements in laboratory 

capacity of BAHA 

6.3.6.6. Implementation of Freight Transport Review Centers 


806. The objective of the implementation of freight transport review centers is to verify 

compliance with the regulatory framework generated in the short and medium term. 


807. Establish freight transport review centers in the same facilities for the issuance of permits 

and licenses defined in short-term actions; additionally, centers should be installed at land 

borders. The following data should be collected at these centers: 




n 

n 

n 

Verification of weights and dimensions. 

Verification of vehicle and driver status: Automotive vehicles used in the transport of 

people or cargo, as well as their trailers or semi-trailers, must pass a technical review 

performed by the competent authority, on a periodic basis and when the authority so 

requires, to verify an adequate mechanical condition and a satisfactory state of 

preservation. 

Verification and measurement of polluting emissions to obtain the circulation permit. 


808. The same infrastructure would be used for the polluting emission verification. No additional 

investment is needed. 

809. For the verification of weights, the installation of weighbridges in the six (6) centers and a 

scale in the POE of Benque Viejo should be considered. An estimated cost of 9.1 million 

BZD has been considered. 


810. It is proposed to use the personnel who currently carry out the procedures in each 

municipality under the supervision and management of the MoT. 

811. For freight transport review centers, the possibility of private participation is considered. 


Action 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 

Establish freight transport review 

centers 

Start-up of the centers and 

generation of statistics 

6.3.6.7. Renewal of Truck Fleet 


812. According to the data obtained for this study, more than 70% of the cargo vehicle fleet is 

more than 10 years old, causing high operating and maintenance costs for road freight 

transport. 


813. To encourage the fleet renewal, tax incentives or scrappage schemes are proposed for 

the acquisition of new trucks and trailers for the transportation companies that fulfil MoT’s 

requirements established in short and medium-term action plan. It also can be proposed 

temporary tax exceptions for owners to renew their vehicle fleet. 


814. Contract a regional consultant for nine (9) men-month to support in the preparation of the 

strategy and agencies staff training. An estimated cost of 180,000 BZD has been 

considered. 




815. The actual costs of the tax incentives or scrappage schemes, and the selection of best 

strategy to achieve the most truck renewal benefits, should be prepared by the consultant, 

once detailed fleet registration information is available, the target renewal fleet is identified, 

and the proper incentive levels are established for each type of truck. Considering a target 

fleet of 1,500 vehicles, a six-year renewal program (250 vehicles per year), and an 

average incentive of 2,000 BZD per renewed vehicle, gives an order of magnitude cost of 

500,000 BLD per year. 


816. The Ministry of Economic Development, Petroleum, Investment, Trade and Commerce 

will define the Tax strategy to promote the fleet renewal. 



Action 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

Development of the 

strategy and regulatory 

framework for the renewal 

of the vehicle fleet 

Gradual renewal of the 

vehicle fleet 

6.3.6.8. Elimination of Cargo Charges to Belizean Trucks at the Border with Mexico and 

Guatemala 


818. Impediment to provide cross-border service of Belizean trucks in Guatemalan and 

Mexican territory. Foreign trucks can operate in Belize, if they pay a special fee initiated 

by the MOT, and other extra costs. 

819. The implementation of the regulatory framework proposed for the medium and long term, 

will help to establish bi-national agreements that allow international transport services with 

Mexico and Guatemala. Some of the issues that should be addressed by such agreements 

include: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

The type of transport that is allowed, all foreign trucks, trucks with destination or origin 

in the foreign country, thru trucks (from POE to POE of another country), other types. 

Allowance or not to haul back cargo to their country of origin. 

Allowance or not of domestic hauling services while they are in the foreign country. 

Quota of permits for each country or unlimited permits. 

Any restrictions on the type of cargoes covered by the MOU. 

820. An example of what can be achieved is the MOU signed in 2011 between the Ministry of 

Communications and Transportation of Mexico and the Ministry of Communications of 

Guatemala; in this agreement, the operation of the international land transport service 

between both countries is regulated. In general terms, the requirements stipulated in this 

MOU are: 

n 

Driver's information. 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Physical characteristics of the vehicle. 

Owner's information. 

Insurance policy. 

Polluting emission verification. 

Regulations and laws to observe. 


821. The proposed action includes the negotiation of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) 

with Guatemala and Mexico for international freight transport services. The MOU should 

have requirements, applicable in both border countries, to obtain certification to offer 

international freight transport services, such as: 

n 

n 

n 

Carriers: tax registration - registration with the MoT in the respective country. 

Vehicles: vehicle registration, customs code, certification of polluting emissions, thirdparty 

insurance coverage and environmental insurance coverage (in the case of 

transport of dangerous goods). 

Drivers: valid driver's license. 

822. Depending on the modalities in place, there would be the need to revise the Belize- 

Guatemala Partial Scope Agreements, as well as, to include a section on elimination of 

the cargo charges by both governments through these bilateral agreements. This would 

be in the spirit of bilateral free trade agreement. 


823. Advisory services of a consultant specialized in bi-national issues over a period of 3 years 

to achieve the MOU with Mexico and Guatemala. An estimated cost of 720,000 BZD was 

considered. 


824. Participation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Home Affairs in the negotiation of the 

MOU with participation of Ministry of Transport to determine the technical aspects. 



Action 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

Negotiation of a 

Memorandum of 

Understanding with 

Guatemala and Mexico 

for international freight 


6.3.6.9. Optimizing Trade Facilitation Processes 


826. The purpose of optimized trade facilitation processes is to improve the customs processes 

carried out at the borders to reduce time and costs. In the case of Belize, the external 




trade costs are higher than the region’s average, due to the costs of "Border 

Compliance" 32 associated with customs clearance and inspections, inspections by other 

agencies and border handling. 

827. There is null or partial harmonization in the systems and processes of the GOB agencies 

involved in foreign trade. For imports, ASYCUDA world system is fully implemented in 

Customs and Excise Department while BAHA has partial implementation of the system, 

which impacts in the time and cost needed for cargo clearance at the border. 

828. Optimizing trade facilitation processes would benefit the reduction in time and costs for 

1.08 million tons annually of foreign trade. 


829. The proposed action includes the modernization and optimization of the border facilitation 

process, including: 

n 

n 

Customs Procedures: Electronic single window, single inspection systems (One-Stop 

Shop). 

Documentation: Strengthen the implementation of certificates of origin for exporting 

companies. Implement electronic declarations and electronic payments. 

830. The measures will serve to promote Belize’s access to international organizations, such 

as SIECA, with the purpose of adopting the regional standard regulations in international 

trade. 


831. Contract a regional consultant for twelve (12) men-month to support in the preparation of 

the improvements and agencies staff training. An estimated cost of 240,000 BZD was 

considered. 


832. Joint participation of the following agencies to unify customs processes: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Ministry of Economic Development, Petroleum, Investment, Trade and Commerce. 

Customs and Excise Department. 

Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, the Environment and Sustainable 

Development and Immigration. 

Belize Agricultural Health Authority. 

National Committee on Trade Facilitation (NCTF). 

Ministry of Transport. 

833. All agencies involved in the trade facilitation process will participate in the consultation, 

likely under the coordination of the National Committee on Trade Facilitation (NCTF). 

32 

According with World Bank “Doing Business”. Border compliance takes into count the cost needed to comply with 

the customs regulation and other mandatory inspections needed for the shipment to cross the border, as well the cost 

to handle the cargo in the port or border. For 2016, border compliance import cost in Belize was $688 USD while the 

average of Central American and Caribbean countries was $533 USD. 





Action 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

Improvements in 

customs 

procedures 

Improvements in 

Documentation 

processes 

Environmental and Energy Measures 

834. This final section discusses additional measures of interest to the GoB having impact on 

GHG emissions. As noted in Section 2.11 of this report, the Nationally Determined 

Contribution (NDC) under the United Framework Convention of Climate Change proposed 

a 20% reduction in fuel use by 2030 and energy efficiency in the sector through the 

implementation of policies and investments and the measures below are geared to helping 

attain the goal. 

Energy efficiency in light duty vehicles 

835. Measures related to energy efficiency in light duty vehicles, in the case of Belize, could be 

considered as an essential part of the road toward decarbonizing the transport sector. 

However, it should be mentioned that the application of some of these types of measures 

are essentially for new and newly imported vehicles. 

836. There are several public policy instruments that can increase the energy efficiency of 

vehicles, and these are aggregated into three categories: informational, economic and 

regulatory. The more common ones are fuel economy labels (informational) and fuel 

economy standards (regulatory); nevertheless, these only apply to new and newly 

imported vehicles. 

837. The vehicle fuel economy label is an informational tool designed to provide consumers 

with information about the vehicle's efficiency, with the aim of making a more informed 

buying decision. Normally, the label presents information related to fuel consumption in 

urban areas and roads and / or CO2 emissions. In Belize, this measure can be applied to 

newly imported vehicles. The Belize Custom & Excise Department and Statistical Institute 

of Belize, through the Ministry of Public Service, Energy and Public Utilities together with 

the Ministry of Transport and the Department of Environment, can adopt a labelling policy 

that obliges vehicle distributers and dealers to introduce a label that provides information 

to consumers on performance and CO2 emissions. 

838. Fuel economy standards are a normative instrument that seek to reduce the consumption 

of fuel in vehicles for each kilometer or mile travelled, and in turn reduce greenhouse gas 

emissions. Since fuel economy and CO2 emissions are directly related, it is common for 

governments to either implement a fuel economy or a CO2 standard. 

839. For used vehicles, it is more common to apply economic measures, which can also be 

used in the case of new vehicles. These instruments are essentially taxes that are applied 

based on the vehicle emissions, age or fuel consumption. Another economic instrument 

that could work for Belize is the restriction on the importation of used vehicles of a certain 

age or technology. Economic instruments, whilst not difficult to implement, tend to be 

viewed unfavourably by the general public; however due to the current vehicle fleet of 




Belize, this could be the most adequate energy efficiency instrument to consider for 


840. Another possibility is to implement emission testing (which DOE has laws on) as a 

requisite for licensing of all vehicles. This ensures that vehicles are running optimally and 

are not contaminating the environment with excessive GHG gases. This also provides an 

additional revenue stream for municipalities or the private sector. 

Electric Vehicles 

841. Policy actions in Belize’s Sustainable Energy Roadmap aims to shift the energy matrix 

away from fossil fuels to alternative renewable energy technologies. Specifically, these 

actions seek to (i) promote renewables for utility, small-scale and distributed electric 

generation, and (ii) promote renewables for heat transfer applications such as drying, 

cooling, hot water, and process heat. 

842. In 2010, the transport sector consumed 46.80% of the total energy in the country, which 

99% came from fossil fuels. Therefore, by shifting the energy matrix, the GOB has an 

opportunity to develop a policy for the introduction of electric vehicles in the long term. 

843. However, at the current stage of development, electric vehicles are expensive and the 

development of public charging infrastructure around the country would be a costly action 

for Belize. Therefore, it is recommended to start with a pilot project in an urban area or 

with government institutions. San Pedro, being an island with specific problems in urban 

transport is an ideal candidate for a pilot project. The pilot will serve to test the 

attractiveness of electric vehicles in the country. If the results were positive, a roll-out to 

Belize City could be envisaged, and, finally, rolling out the system to the rest of the country. 

844. To consider a policy on electric vehicles, the market conditions should exist in the country, 

therefore, the GOB may have to consider an economic incentive that covers the 

incremental cost of the technology in the initial years of the program. This incentive can 

be reduced over time, but without an incentive, it would be difficult to consider the 

implementation of this kind of policy. 

Biofuels 

845. Biofuels are largely compatible with today´s vehicular technology, so they can serve as a 

renewable alternative to fossil fuels, helping to reduce thr GHG emissions of the transport 

sector and reduce the country’s dependence on imported energy sources, mostly oil 

products. The most common ones are biodiesel and bioethanol produced from biomass. 

846. For biofuels to reduce GHG, without affecting the environment and the food supply chain, 

they must be produced in a sustainable way from non-food competing sources; therefore, 

caution must be taken regarding the land-use changes that the implementation of this type 

of policy could bring to the country. 

847. The European Union has one of the strongest policies supporting the use of biofuels. To 

consider a biofuel sustainable, its criteria is that it must achieve a GHG savings of at least 

50% in comparison with the use of fossil fuel, and the complete life cycle assessment of 

the emissions should be considered (cultivating, processing and transport) (European 

Comission, 2017). Therefore, if the GOB is considering the implementation of a biofuel 

policy, similar criteria should be followed to avoid change in land use by growing biofuels 

on existing agricultural land that displace food production to previously non-agricultural 

land, such as forests. 




848. However, the EU is reconsidering its strategy of biofuels’ promotion because, after 

accounting land-use change emissions (ILUC), the impact of biofuels is in fact negative 

as the GHG emissions increased when compared with the use of fossil fuels. An extreme 

case is bio-diesel: food-based biodiesel produces, on average, 80% more CO2 emissions 

than the fossil diesel when ILUC are accounted (see EU report “Globiom”). As a result, 

several NGOs and public stakeholders are calling for the suppression of all subsidies to 

biofuels production. 

849. Another disadvantage is that their development may require subsidizing part of the 

production and Belize could use those funds for more suitable activities. In any case, 

biofuels could be an option for Belize but only after ensuring the sustainability of their 

production, which may be hard to obtain. 

Summary of actions 

850. To finalize the chapter, the following table lists the totality of the measures for the MLTAP, 

specifying the entity responsible for its implementation, the cost, the funding options, the 

outputs, outcomes and indicators to measure how successful the measure will be. 




Action 

Widening of main corridors program 

-East 

Widening of main corridors program 

- South 

Bullet Tree Falls - La Democracia rural 


By-passes and urban roads program 

Orange Walk rural roads program 

Maskall - Old Northern Highway 

program 

North-eastern tourist and rural roads 

program 

South Cayo rural roads program 

New North-South Highway by Guinea 

Grass 


Altun Ha -Lamanai-San Felipe 

Corridor 

Belize City external bypass 

Mode 

Responsible 

entity / other 

stakeholders 

involved 

Cost 

Roads MOW 3.2 

Roads MOW 7.1 

Financing 

mechanism 

Public/IFI/ 

Maybe PPP 

Public/IFI/ 

Maybe PPP 

Output Outcome Impact indicator 

Widening or main 

road corridors 

Widening or main 

road corridors 

Roads MOW 29.0 Public/IFI Upgraded paved 

roads 


roads 


roads 

Roads MOW 19.0 Public/IFI 

Upgraded paved 

roads 

Roads MOW 22.4 Public/IFI 


roads 

Roads MOW 7.0 Public 


roads 

Roads MOW 102.2 Public Upgraded paved 

roads 


roads 


roads 


roads 

Increase performance of the 

network and road safety 

Increase performance of the 

network and road safety 

Reduce time to access the main 

corridors and higher resilience 



















LOS 

LOS 

Travel time to Belize 

City 


City 


City 


City 


City 


City 


City 


City 


City 


City 




Action 

Mode 

Responsible 


stakeholders 

involved 

Cost 

Financing 

mechanism 


Improving Road Maintenance 

Program and Increase Maintenance 

Budget According to New Network 

Roads 

MOW 

0.3 more 

per year 

Public / PPP 

Better in main 

corridors 

Extend the life of the infrastructure 

Life of the 

infrastructure, time 

needed until major 

rehabilitation 

Capacity Building Program on 

Data Collection 

Second stage of the 

modernization of the Public Bus 

Service 

Renewed / build bus terminals in 

all main cities 2nd phase: Belize 

City – Belmopan – San Ignacio 


all main cities: 3rd phase Belize 

City – Orange Walk – Corozal 


all main cities 4rd phase Belize 

City – Dangriga – Placencia – 

Punta Gorda 

Roads MOW 0.02 Public / IFI 

Public 

Transport 

Public 

Transport 

Public 

Transport 

Public 

Transport 

MOT / Private 

operators 

1.5 for TA 

2.1 for 

worksho 

ps for 

parking 

IFI/ Private 

Staff of MOW is 

capable to launch 

some surveys and 

supervise the 

subcontractor 

Reformed sector 

with more 

professional 

companies, new 

routes system, and 

licenses 

MOT /BIL 1.6 PPP New inter-city bus 

stations 

MOT /BIL 1.6 PPP New inter-city bus 

stations 

MOT /BIL 1.4 PPP 

New inter-city bus 

stations 

More data for better planning 

Safer and more reliable public 

transport 

Safer public transport services 

and higher quality of service 





Periodic data 

collection surveys 

are carried out 

Share of public 

transport on intercity 

transport 

Passenger 

throughput in each 

station 

Passenger 


station 

Passenger 


station 




Action 

Mode 

Responsible 


stakeholders 

involved 

Cost 

Financing 

mechanism 


Develop some public transport 

routes to touristic sites to limit 

charters services dependence for 

tourism services 

Water taxis development 

program 

Cruise Terminal in Port of Magical 

Belize 

Second multipurpose berth for 


PGIA capacity increase program 

(taxiway, lighting, terminal) 

Public 

Transport 

Public 

Transport 

Ports 

Ports 

Airports 

MT&NEMO 

/BIL 

BPA 

BPA / BIL / 

private 

investors 

BPA / BIL / 

private 

investors 

BAA / DCAA / 

BACC 

- 

2.2 for 

infra 

0.03 for 

TA 

Private (route 

concession) 

Private / PPP 

150 Private 


routes serving 

tourist attractions 

cruise terminal 

onshore with 

berthing capacity 

for 4 Oasis class 

vessels 

30 Private Second berth in 

PBC 

84 (19 

firsy 

phase) 

Private 

New taxiways + 

lighting system for 

night operations 

Reduce access costs to tourist 

locations for both tourists and 

locals 

Cruise tourists stay longer in the 

country 

Solved capacity constraints for 

bulk and containers 

Capacity increase and reduction 

of air space congestion 

number of visitors 

(international and 

local) of the tourist 

location served by 

the bus line 

Expendituro from 

cruise tourists (if 

available) 

Reduction of 

detention times of 

vessels 

Number of 

movments per 

hour 

Relocation of San Pedro Airport 

Relocation of Placencia Airport 

Airports BAA / DCAA 28 Public / IFI 

Airports BAA / DCAA 10 Public / IFI 

New airport in San 

Pedro with a 5,000 

ft runway 

Unfinished 

international 

airport 

rehabilitated 

Bigger aircrafts serving the new 

airport 

Bigger aircrafts serving the new 

airport 

Reduction of air 

transport costs for 

domestic flights 

Reduction of air 

transport costs for 

domestic flights 




Action 

Jalacte Border Post designed 

following regular standards 

Modernization of Border Posts 

(Santa Elena selected for pilot 

program) 

Professionalization of road freight 

transport sector. 

Regulating and enforcing weight 

limits and dimensions of freight 

vehicles. 

Implementation of freight 

transport review centers. 

Truck Fleet renewal. 

Elimination of cargo charges to 

Belizean trucks at the border with 

Mexico and Guatemala. 

Mode 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Responsible 


stakeholders 

involved 

BMA / 

Customs / 

BAHA / 

MT&NEMO 

BMA / 

Customs / 

BAHA / MOT 

Cost 

Financing 

mechanism 

6 Public / IFI 

New POE 

operational 

4.9 Public / IFI Modernised 

border post in 

Benque Viejo 

MOT 0.03 Public / IFI 

MOT / MOW 0.04 Public / IFI 

MOT 

MOT/ M. 

Finance 

4.5 for 

weighbri 

dges 

Public / IFI 

0.09 Public / IFI 

MOT/MFAHA 0.36 Public / IFI 


New regulations 

on freight sector 

New regulations 

on freight sector 

Inspection centers 

to evaluate 

roadworthiness 

Strategy for fleet 

renewal to be 

implemented 

Trucks can operate 

on both sides of 

the border 

Trade with Guatemala increases 

in the southern districts 

Reduced time at the border 

Companies better managed and 

higher road safety 

Less overloads and roads lasting 

more 

Less vehicles in poor condition 

on the road and increase road 

safety 

Newer vehicles on the road, with 

positive effects on emissions and 

road safety 

Reduced transport costs 

Trade with 

Guatemala 

Average time for 

completion of 

customs 

procedures at the 

border 

Companies legally 

established 

% of vehicles 

overloaded 

% of vehicles 

considered not 

roadworthy 

Average age of 

trucks in Belize 

Evolution of trade 

with Guatemala 




Action 

Optimize trade facilitation 

processes 

Mode 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitatio 

n 

Responsible 


stakeholders 

involved 

BMA / 

Customs / 

BAHA /MOT 

Cost 

Financing 

mechanism 

0.12 Public / IFI 


Single windows 

and electronic 

declaration are 

effectives 

Reduction of time and cost in 

border crossing 

Reduction of time 

at the border 




IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS 


851. Robust and well-implemented rules and regulations are enablers for positive development 

and the backbone of strong institutions. A legal system, which fails to express the realities 

of the socio-economic and political-institutional processes that it aims to regulate, ends up 

becoming an obstacle for the achievement of its own purpose. This phenomenon occurs 

frequently with laws governing physical planning, transportation and land development 

failing to produce the desired outcomes and to match economic and social policies 33 . 

852. Good quality legislation and effective institutions and governance mechanisms, which 

have appropriate legal powers, healthy finances and the necessary human capacity, can 

become drivers of positive transformation. A focus on basic and essential legislation that 

provides an adequate governance framework, and that can be enforced, will provide the 

most effective support 34 to the implementation of the Belize CNTMP. 

853. In Belize, the structure of government, responsibilities, and relationships between 

institutions are fragmented and complicated, and as such, they represent challenges for 

the implementation of the Plan and to encourage investments 35 . Additionally, the 

legislative process is slow and there have not been any major changes to the legislation 

since its last revisions in 2010 and 2011 36 . Adequate legislation, institutional capacity and 

monitoring and evaluation procedures are fundamental to provide funding for the 

implementation of the plan and to operate and maintain infrastructure. 

854. This chapter describes the CNTMP’s implementation arrangements, including the legal 

and regulatory instruments and the transport sector planning, monitoring and evaluation 

tools, including the institutional and coordination requirements. 

7.2 LEGAL AND REGULATORY INSTRUMENTS 

855. This section identifies the regulatory instruments necessary for the implementation of the 

CNTMP for Belize. 

Private Sector Promotion Instruments 

856. The GoB is currently working on a draft PPP policy framework. Such draft PPP policy 

provides high-level procedures for the private participation in investment projects of public 

interest. The Policy is intended to be supported by detailed guidance material and tools to 

clarify and help government officials meet the high-level requirements set out in the 

general PPP policy. 

857. In the case of the PPP policy and legal framework for transport, the following elements 

should be considered. When the PPP results from a public bidding, the process should be 

open, non-discriminatory, transparent and objective. Another important aspect to consider 

in the PPP arrangement is that the land and infrastructure ownership of the project 

33 

UN-Habitat, (2016). Urbanization and Development: Emerging Futures; World Cities Report 2016. Nairobi, UN 

Habitat. 

34 

Idem- 

35 

McNish, B., & Granada, I. (2013). Transport Sector in Belize. Inter-American Development Bank. 

36 

Secretariat, WTO (2017). Trade Policy Review. World Trade Organization. 




remains in the GoB, especially regarding ports and airports with the BPA or BAA 

respectively acting as “landlords” of the private companies. Considerations regarding the 

ability for the grantor to amend contract or agreements unilaterally should be 

contemplated, to ensure efficiency and transparency in the provision of transportation 

services. 

858. Special attention must be put into rights of exclusivity on the contracts. Concessionaire 

obligations should be clearly stipulated in contracts. Furthermore, alternative means of 

conflict resolution between the parties should also be considered. 

859. Additionally, it is important that a new PPP policy consider aspects related to payments 

conditions and procedures, guarantees, and risk allocations (see the schematics of a 

general model for a Public Private Partnership in Annex 9). 

Regulation on Professional Competence of Transport Operators 

860. The regulation of the professional competence of transport operators through training and 

certification has the following purposes: 

n 

n 

To ensure that transport operators are knowledgeable of the regulations pertaining to 

their activities and are competent in carrying them out. 

To ensure that the MoT personnel has the knowledge and understanding of the scope 

and application of the regulatory framework generated for the road freight transport 

and is able to disseminate the regulatory framework to transporters and drivers. 

861. Nowadays, the world of freight has evolved and demands the pursuit of different 

certifications for the sector´s effectiveness. One of such is the Certificate of Professional 

Competence (CPC) for Transport Managers in Road Haulage. In various countries and 

most notably in the UK, the certificate is recognized by the Department for Transport. It 

includes a range of subjects related to the business of road transport. The objective of the 

qualification is for individuals to obtain the competency requirements for a Transport 

Manager as laid out in the corresponding regulation. 

862. In the same manner, regulations for competency requirements were passed by the 

European Parliament and, in the Council of 21 October 2009 (Council Directive 98/76/EC) 

established the common rules for the conditions to be complied with to pursue the 

occupation of road transport operator. It is recommended for Belize to incorporate a 

similar certification and training model, to ensure competitiveness and help reach the 

goals set in the CNTMP, for both freight and public transport operators. The aim of 

certification and training would be to provide: 

n 

n 

Freight: A DoT recognized CPC providing skills to run an efficient freight transport 

operation. The certificate can become a requirement of the operator licensing system. 

Public transport: A DoT recognized CPC providing skills to master the technical 

public transport sector planning and operations, including understanding and 

estimating operating costs over full asset life cycle. 

863. The training should provide the general knowledge of the regulatory framework, including: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Legal aspects related to drivers’ training (operator training, licenses, transportation 

permits and vehicles registry). 

Size and weight regulations. 


transport vehicles. 

Regulation of polluting emissions. 




n 

n 

n 

Regulations for bi-articulated trucks. 

Fleet renewal. 

International Freight Transport Services (with México and Guatemala). 

864. In addition, the Freight Transport Manager CPC training should include, at least, the 

following topics: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Operator licensing. 

Driver licensing. 

Drivers' hours and working time. 

Record-keeping including pre-trip vehicle inspections, defect reporting, trips 

undertaken and complaints. 

Maintenance, vehicle safety inspections and vehicle operations. 

Financial management and vehicle costing. 

People management and employment legislation. 

Health, safety and insurance. 

Environmental aspects (site and vehicle). 

Documentation, information and communication. 

Operator’s incident management plans for vehicle breakdowns and other incidents or 

emergencies. 

Zero blood-alcohol concentration awareness. 

Prohibition of overloading of vehicles. 

Guidelines for the safety of operations. 

Fatigue management. 

Customer service skills. 

Transporting people with disabilities. 

Workplace health and safety responsibilities. 

Company policy including refusing travel, duty of care, and customer service. 

Consequences of breaching transport legislation. 

865. The Public Transport Manager CPC should include at least the following topics: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Basic concepts of operations: network and lines, headway and frequency, speed and 

travel time. 

Operations planning: data and intelligence, service scheduling: principles and 

software. 

Operations execution: organization and chain of command, operation control center, 

degraded situations. 

Asset-management principles: managing and maintaining fleet, buildings, systems, 

and people assets. 

Facility assets: design and maintenance. 

Life-cycle planning and costing. 

Financial concepts and controls. 

Maintaining assets: maintenance planning and preventive maintenance programs, 

scheduling maintenance of assets. 

Parts planning and inventory controls. 

Key performance indicators. 

Human capital. 

Developing an asset-management program. 




866. For the preparation and initial implementation phase of the certification program, including 

training of the MoT personnel, it is recommended that it includes the specialist consultants 

who would prepare the regulatory framework. For the diffusion of the regulatory 

framework to transporters and drivers, local and MoT personnel can be used. In addition, 

it is recommended for MoT to create partnerships with well-established certification 

centers abroad or consultant teams. MoT can establish a remote training center by 

appointing a Head of Training who can develop a portfolio of online training courses that 

allow for customized training programs to be built. The benefit of online training is a flexible 

learning curriculum, which can be followed anytime, anywhere, without the need to create 

teaching infrastructure. 

867. It is recommended to establish a task force for a Public and Freight Transport and 

Logistics National Observatory. This task force can evolve as a tool for continuous 

assessment of the needs of the economic sectors in relation to transportation and the 

supply and distribution chains. The task force can be comprised of both governmental 

decision makers and companies. This will allow for integrating the needs of the business 

sector by planning, constructing and operating the transport infrastructure and services as 

well as analyzing and disseminating transportation and logistics information, statistics and 

Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The Observatory can gather reliable information of 

freight and logistics, to design, select and implement policies and projects as the basis for 

productivity and competitiveness. 

Revision of Minimum Conditions to Become Transport Operator 

868. In addition to the being a CPC, a transport operator shall comply with the registration and 

licensing of vehicles and with the use of personnel with adequate driver’s license, as 

described in this Section. 

7.2.3.1. Vehicle Registration and Licensing 

Vehicle Registration 

869. A set of requirements for vehicle registration is to be regulated at the national level. The 

documents that certify the Vehicle Registration (VR) are license plates, sticker, and 

circulation card. To obtain those documents, the vehicle’s owner will be required to present 

the information shown in Table 7-1. 

Owner 

information 

Vehicle 

information 

Table 7-1: 

Minimum Requirements for Vehicle Registration 

Requirement 

Commercial 

Vehicles 

(Trucks) 

Commercial 

Vehicles 

(Trailers) 

Owner Name (or Legal Right of Possession) • • 

Document establishing Belizean nationality • • 

Address • • 

Immigration card / Visa, if foreigner • • 

Affidavit or notary public if vehicle is not 100% paid 

by the owner • • 

Vehicle Insurance Policy • • 

Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) • • 

Vehicle type* • • 

Year (of manufacturing) • • 

Make • • 

Model • • 

Colour • • 

Information given by the custom of entry proved 

that customs duty has been paid • • 




Requirement 

Commercial 

Vehicles 

(Trucks) 

Commercial 

Vehicles 

(Trailers) 

Actual Plate number ** • • 

Empty weight • • 

Carrying capacity • • 

Fuel type • • 

Axles • • 

Cylinder and engine power • • 

Windows (roll up and down) • • 

Windows (approved/legislated grade of tint) • • 

Inspection of following issues: • • 

Condition of the vehicle body 

Lights 

Condition of tyres 

Condition of trailer 

Vehicle use (Non-commercial / Commercial) • • 

Trailer type 

• 

License (Permit) of Vehicles 

870. To have the right to circulate, a registered vehicle will need to renew its permit every year. 

Proof that the vehicle permit has been paid will be shown by a sticker that will be placed 

on the windscreen of the vehicle. 

871. The vehicle permit is to be issued according to the operated vehicle type categories. It is 

proposed to use as the following vehicle categorizations (see Table 7-2): 

Table 7-2: Vehicle Permit Categories 

Permit 

Type Type Type 

Vehicle class 

class 

1 2 3 

Class A Motorcycle • 

Class B 

Automobiles, other than those of class A, the maximum authorized 

weight of which does not exceed 3500 kg and the seated 

passenger capacity of which does not exceed eight people in 

• 

addition to the driver. 

Class C 

Automobiles intended for the transport of goods and the maximum 

authorized capacity of which exceed 7500 kg. (six-wheel truck) 

• 

Class C1 

Automobiles intended for the transport of goods and the maximum 

authorized capacity of which exceed 3500 kg, but does not exceed 

• 

7500 kg. 

Class Allows for a class B or C1 vehicle and a trailer of more than 750 

C1E kg GTWR, if the combined gross weight does not exceed 12000 kg. 

• 

Class CE 

Automobiles of category C towed to a trailer with a maximum 

authorized mass exceed 750 kg. (Articulated truck) 

• 

Class D 

Automobiles intended for the transport of persons with a seating 

capacity of more than eight passengers in addition to the driver. 

• 

Class D1 

Automobiles intended for the transport of persons with a seating 

capacity of more than eight, but less than sixteen passengers in 

• 

addition to the driver. 

Class DT Taxi. • 

Class E Tractor • 

Source: Belize City Council adjusted to IDP convention 




Renewal of Documents 

872. Each vehicle will be registered only once, at the national level (MoT). The database 

maintained by DoT will be updated whenever a user pays for the vehicle’s annual licence 

fee (sticker), renewal of a circulation card, and/or license plates changes (with change of 

ownership). 

873. For buses and commercial vehicles, the following guidelines for the renewal of documents 

should be considered: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

It is recommended to renew the circulation card every three (3) years. 

Mandatory inspection by MoT inspectors (or certified service stations) will be required 

prior to obtaining the renewal of the vehicle permit - sticker. 

Vehicle permit to be renewed every year on January – stickers are to be proof of 

payment. 

Buses registered are to be coupled with a public transport permit – authorized for a 

route service. 

Plates: Plates are to be issued at the national level by MoT for all vehicle types, without 

expiration date. 

874. In addition, the following regulatory framework must be complied with to maintain 

transportation service permits and licenses: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Size and weight regulations. 


transport vehicles: Automotive vehicles used in the transport of people or cargo, as 

well, as their trailers or semi-trailers, must pass a technical review performed by the 

competent authority, on a periodic basis and when the authority so requires, to verify 

an adequate mechanical condition and a satisfactory state of preservation. 

Regulation of polluting emissions: Comply with the maximum permissible emission 

limits of pollutants for motor vehicles based on international regulations. 

Regulations for bi-articulated trucks. 

7.2.3.2. Driver’s License 

875. The proposed types of driver’s license and vehicle category that can be driven with each 

type is shown in Table 7-2. Class A vehicles (motorbikes), Class B vehicles (small noncommercial 

vehicles), and Class E vehicles (tractors) will require Type 1 driver’s license; 

commercial vehicles for the transport of goods (all type C) will require Type 2 driver’s 

license; commercial vehicles for the transport of people (all type D) will require Type 3 

driver’s license. 

876. The driver must obtain the driver's license according to the specific requirements of each 

category for commercial vehicles. Table 7-3 shows the proposed requirements set by MoT 

for issuing driver’s licenses type 2 to drive commercial vehicles. 




Table 7-3: Minimum Requirements for Driver Licenses 

Commercial 

Requirement 

Vehicles (Trucks) 

Licenses type 2 

Name 

• 

Photograph 

• 

Birth Date 

• 

Sex 

• 

Height (ft – in) 

• 

Applicant / 

Weight (lbs) 

• 

Driver 

Blood Type 

• 

information 

Nationality 

• 

Address 

• 

Registration Office 

• 

Vehicle motor class that driver can operate with the driver’s 

license 

• 

Official document certifying Belizean nationality 

• 

Training accreditation for vehicle type that certifies the 

theoretical and practical tests (Skill certification) 

• 

Documentation Visual acuity test (Physical certification) 

• 

Doping and psychological tests (Physical certification) 

• 

Minimum age accreditation to obtain a driver's license (17 years 

old for types 1 & 4, 23 years old for types 2 &3 and at least 3 

• 

years of driver’s license 1) 

For license issue of trucks license bigger than 5 axles 

Certification of two year driving in the previous category must be 

• 

submitted 


7.2.3.3. Institutional Set-up in the DoT 

877. For the monitoring and control of the road-freight transport sector, the creation of a 

monitoring and control unit under the Department of Transport is recommended. Section 

7.4 provides more details of the proposed formation of this Unit. 

Transport Diversification and Cross-border Integrations Promotion 

Instruments 

878. This subject has three objectives. The first one refers to the actions required for the 

implementation of Jalacte PoE. The second one has the objective to facilitate trade with 

the neighboring countries, eliminating the practice of cargo change to Belizean trucking 

services at the border PoE´s. The last objective refers to the instruments recommended 

for the conversion of individual carriers to transport companies. 

879. For the above purposes, legal instruments are required to support the development of a 

highly competitive freight sector at all levels: operator, agent and forwarder for a reliable, 

efficient and low-cost service. The main contents of the decrees shall include the following 

aspects: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Freight industry type of operators. 

Representation arrangements. 

Types of traffic and types of cargo. 

Various types of transport. 

Level of service. 

Technology. 

External issues. 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Safety. 

Environment. 

Services that improve transport: Door to Door Services, Third Party Logistics (3PL), 

Truck Turn Time. 

Regulatory environment. 

Competition and behavior. 

Overloading. 

Empty running. 

Externalities. 

Freight vehicle efficiency. 

Employment. 

Financial performance. 

Truck freight indicators. 

880. In addition, the logistics sector requires benchmarking indicators such as the Logistics 

Performance Index (LPI), which is a comprehensive measure of efficiency on international 

supply chains. This type of index plays a role in informing the trend on logistics-related 

reforms. Nonetheless, synthetic indicators may not do justice to the complexity and variety 

of operations in supply chains and may emphasize certain activities at the expense of 

others. The LPI itself looks at the border component of supply chains, as trade and 

transport facilitation were the priority reform area when the index was created in 2007. It 

measures five aspects: customs infrastructure, international shipments, logistics quality 

and competence, tracking and tracing, and timelines. The legal tools shall include the 

mechanisms (origin of data and data flow, reporting procedures, periodicity of reporting, 

responsibilities, between other aspects) to ensure the periodic preparation of the LPI. 

881. Partnerships with training institutions in the region can be made to take advantage of the 

expertise developed in the region, while optimizing the limited resources. Proper training 

and capacity building can enhance expertise in Belize, as well as, develop knowledge 

skills and flexibility to the staff involve in the transport sector in the country. 

Logistics and Transport Investment Promotion Instruments 

882. There are different types of road and transport funds. The mechanism proposed for Belize 

is a National Transport Fund (NTF) for the development and maintenance of transport 

infrastructure, or a National Road Fund (NRF), targeted at the development and 

maintenance of road transport infrastructure. 

883. It is proposed that the NTF/NRF be administrated, managed and supervised by the 

Ministry of Works (see Figure 7-1). The decision of projects to be funded by the NTF 

must be given technical opinion by the National Transport Board who shall receive 

information from the Planning Unit. The Ministry of Finance will be in charge of approving 

the exercise of public debt for the financing of projects in light of achieving the objectives 

of the CNTMP through the project programming exercises of the DOT Planning Unit. 

884. A NTF/NRF would allow for the possibility of innovative funding and financing 

arrangements to secure funding, some of these include: 

n 

n 

n 

Multi-year funding for strategic/major projects, supported by dedicated project-specific 

organizational and funding structures. 

Fully funding an entire multimodal program of infrastructure projects for longer periods, 

five or ten-year periods. 

Allowing savings on approved project costs to be retained for future program funding. 




Figure 7-1: 

Schematic Institutional Arrangement of a Possible National Transport Fund 

885. There are multiple possible financing sources to feed into the fund. Some possibilities 

include: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

The regular Cap II Expenditure and Cap III Expenditure dedicated to transport or road 

investment. 

The regular budget allocation for transport or road infrastructure maintenance. 

Special purpose taxes or levies for transport or road investment and maintenance, 

should the Ministry of Finance find it acceptable to apply dedicated taxes without 

distorting the efficient allocation of government funds. 

Fees for the use of publicly owned transport or road infrastructure, such as tolls on 

roads and fees for the use of public bus or water taxi terminals. 

886. The legislation creating and regulating NTF/NRF should include the description of the 

institutional arrangements, financing sources, guidelines for the administration and uses 

of funds, innovative financing mechanisms, monitoring and auditing requirements, among 

other aspects. 




General Rules for the Implementation of the Multi-modal Integrated 

Transport 

887. The GoB is committed to treating long-term transport planning and implementation as a 

priority, and to translate the transport policy into reality for the next 20 years and beyond; 

therefore, general rules for the implementation of a Multi-modal Integrated Transport 

Model, must be set before acting. 

888. First, there must be adequate regulations in place meeting international safety, security 

and environmental standards to encourage greater private sector participation and 

support the financing components of the Plan. There must also be a focus on improving 

inter-agency co-ordination in inter-modal transport; for planning, setting standards and 

improving the enforcement of the transport regulations to achieve a safe, secure, high 

quality, efficient and well-regulated transport system. 

889. To become competitive, Belize should ensure that points of entry, landside sectors and 

port interfaces meet the requirements of shippers and carriers. Trans-shipment load 

centers, feeder lines, multi-modal transport facilities, and logistic services should be 

encouraged to improve goods handling capacities and to provide economies of scale with 

handling and transit costs, infrastructure capital costs, and running expenses. Goods 

moving to and from the interior should have improved transport times and cost on 

movement to and from the coastline. 37 

890. The proposed Transport Planning Unit under the Ministry of Transport and NEMO would 

be the responsible body for the development of the general rules for the implementation 

of the Multi-modal Integrated Transport model proposed by the CNTMP. The Planning 

Unit will rely on the Integrated Transport Information System (ITIS) for the implementation 

of the Multimodal Integrated Transport model and for its continuous monitoring and 

periodic adjustments, as described in the following section. 

7.3 THE TRANSPORT SECTOR PLANNING, MONITORING AND 

EVALUATION 

Institutional Structure for the Transport Sector Planning 

7.3.1.1. The Conceptual Structure 

891. To ensure the viability of the implementation of the CNTMP, a series of regulatory and 

institutional reforms are necessary. The creation of two units and one information hub 

were recommended. The first structure suggested is the creation of a Transport Planning 

Unit (TPU) that fosters the involvement of all the relevant stakeholders of the transport 

system. Through collaborative and coordination mechanisms and an institutional structure 

under the Ministry of Transport and NEMO it would function as the agency designated by 

law to carry out the planning activities of the sector. 

892. The process of planning carried out by the TPU must include at least the following steps 38 : 

1. Monitoring of existing transport infrastructure conditions. 

2. Forecasting future necessities (taking into consideration land use, population 

growth, economic growth corridors, etc.). 

37 

Litman Todd, Multi-Modal Transportation Planning, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2017 

38 

The Transportation Planning Process: Key Issues, the Transportation Planning Capacity Building Program Federal 

Highway Administration Federal Transit Administration, United States Government. 




3. Identification of problems affecting transport and analyzing alternatives to tackle 

them. 

4. Development of short and long-term action plans; possible related impacts and 

monitoring and evaluation indicators. 

5. Developing a financial plan to secure funds for the implementation of projects. 

893. The functions proposed for the TPU are the implementation of the CNTMP, including its 

continuous monitoring and periodic updating and adjustment, and the identification of 

possible financing opportunities. The nature of the TPU will be strategic, in charge of the 

multi-modal transport planning. Sub-sector detail planning and technical design details 

shall be the responsibility of the sub-sector government agencies. The proposed 

governance structure for the achievement of its functions is shown in Figure 7-2. As seen 

in the diagram presented below, the planning process must be cooperative, since there 

are several agencies involved in the sector. 

Figure 7-2: 

Transport Planning Unit Governance 

894. The second structure proposed is a Monitoring and Control Unit (MCU) in charge of 

controlling and enforcing: public transport operator contracts, freight regulations, transport 

regulations, concession conditions, public transport routes and operator contracts. Among 

others, the MCU will enforce: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Technical and mechanical inspections and minimum operating conditions for vehicles. 

Though national regulations exist in this area, technical conditions and inspection 

periods should be standardized. In 2009, the SIECA drafted a policy manual for the 

mechanical inspection of vehicles according to the regulations of the time, which could 

be used as reference. 

Control of maximum driving hours. Having Road Safety in mind, it will be important to 

monitor the maximum workday for freight drivers and public transport operators and 

supervise the minimum required working conditions. 

Define, implement, and monitor indicators, for time spent loading, inspecting, and 

unloading, controlling total logistical times for transport and down time per unit. 

Vehicle age and compliance with emissions regulations, for freight and public transport 

vehicles using terminals. 




895. Although transport planning and monitoring and evaluation functions are typically carried 

out by the same government unit (usually due to the low importance and limited resources 

given to transport planning), in a well-developed transport governance structures, 

planning functions are separated from monitoring and control for various reasons. 

n 

n 

n 

Planning must be enforced through a special unit that is fully dedicated to observing 

the compliance of the plans. Secondly, transport planning needs to be a technical 

activity, with staff trained to develop the necessary transport planning activities. 

Furthermore, transport planning should be considered as one of the most important 

tasks of the DoT. 

On the other side, monitoring and control are routine activities. These are based on 

indicators that are fed by different elements and, as such, require operative staff rather 

than technical. 

The two activities, transport planning, monitoring and control, have different cycles. 

This is another reason why both activities should be separated. Additionally, the two 

departments need to oversee each other, to ensure better control and efficiency. 

Planning needs receive information from monitoring and control for feedback, and to 

be employed during evaluation. 

896. Finally, an Integrated Transportation Information System (ITIS) shall be created as a 

centralized data hub the Department of Transport, for the collection, processing and 

dissemination of comprehensive transport information. The system will be a pivotal unit 

for the Planning and the Monitoring and Control Units. Among other information, the IT IS 

shall make available a periodic reporting of transport subsystem indicators, maps, public 

transport routes, and general information regarding the performance of the transport 

system. The ITIS will work along with the planning unit so that the different sub-sectors 

acquire monitoring equipment, based on specific terms of reference designed for the 

acquisition. 

897. A great coordination effort between the different transport stakeholders for the provision 

of accurate, transparent and updated information will be implemented. The different 

agencies must determine a liaison person for the communication with the ITIS to maintain 

an open channel for the exchange of information and quick compliance with requirements. 

898. The diagram presented in Figure 7-3 below shows the minimal required transport 

agencies and road transport information that must use and provide information from the 

ITIS. The system will also gather information from the other transport related agencies, 

such as airports and aviation information from BAA and DCA, and ports and maritime 

information, including water taxi information, from BPA. In addition, ITIS will be linked to 

CITO to exchange information, providing transport data and receiving other data required 

for the adequate planning and monitoring of the transport sector, such as demographic 

data, socio-economic data, and international trade data. 




Figure 7-3: 

Integrated Transport Information System 

899. The legislation creating and regulating TPU and ITIS should include the guidelines for the 

monitoring procedures of the CNTMP’s implementation, including procedures for defining 

(i) policy objectives and performance indicators to monitor, (ii) periodicity and general 

mechanisms for preparing monitoring results, and (iii) guidelines for the periodic updating, 

revision and adjustment of the CNTMP. It is recommended that the monitoring reports be 

done annually and reviews, updates and revisions be provided every four to five years. 

900. The legislation should indicate the role of each transport related government agency in 

the monitoring, review and updating of the CNTMP, including the responsible agencies to 

carry out these activities, and the role of the Office of the Prime Minister and Parliament 

in approving the annual monitoring results and the updated and revised CNTMP. 

901. As part of the CNTMP implementation, annual monitoring and periodic adjustment and 

revisions, it would be convenient to regulate the preparation of periodic strategic 

implementation plans and annual implementation reports at the transport sub-sector level 

(roads, ports and maritime, airports and aviation, road public transport and water taxi), to 

provide a comprehensive annual implementation and monitoring reports, periodic subsector 

strategic implementation plans, and updated and revised CNTMP. 

902. Regarding ITIS, the regulation should provide guidelines about the type of data, 

periodicity, reporting procedures, and responsible agencies for the generation of transport 

data. This regulation should also include the requirements of private operators (port, 

airport, water taxi, and bus operators) to periodically report and provide systematic data 

on their operations. 

7.3.1.2. The Role of the Ministry of Transport in Planning 

903. The Ministry of Transport has a preponderant role in the transport sector planning as the 

agency responsible for the coordination of transport policy and its implementation across 

all modes of transport through the Planning System. In addition, the MoT will act as a 

liaising agency with other responsible entities to assist in transport planning. 




904. The Transport Planning System under the MoT will create new transport forecasting and 

planning capability in data collection. It will develop a basis for resource allocation across 

modes of transport. 

7.3.1.3. The Department of Public-Private Sector Dialog in the Sector Planning 

905. Following the 2012 general election, the GoB showed strong commitment to the 

development of Public Private Partnerships. The creation of the Department of Public- 

Private Sector Dialogue, headed by the private sector liaison officer, which comes under 

the Office of the Prime Minister, also serves as the secretariat and executive director of 

the Economic Development Council (EDC). 39 

906. This Department plays a crucial role in the sector planning as an advisory entity for the 

DoT Transport Planning Unit, working on the identification of possible financing 

mechanisms and opportunities for projects, as well as, being a facilitator for their 


Figure 7-4: 

Relationship between the Department of Public-Private Sector Dialogue and 

the Transport Planning Unit 

7.3.1.4. Other Agencies Involved in the Transport Sector Planning 

907. The Transportation Planning System has the objective of coordination, cooperation, as 

well as, providing tools to overcome challenges to give certainty and promote capital 

investment for the implementation of the actions in the CNTMP. 

39 

IADB, Private Sector Assessment of Belize 




908. Other agencies involved in the Transport Sector Planning System include: 

n 

n 

n 

The Ministry of Works as the agency in charge of the development and maintenance 

of transport infrastructure - for which the National Transport Fund was recommended. 

Then, the MoW will be giving technical opinion to the DoT Planning Unit for the finance 

planning and programming exercises; and of the administration, operation, 

management and supervision of the resources in the National Transport Fund for the 

achievements of the objectives set by the CNTMP. 

The Ministry of Finance and Economic Development as the Ministry in charge of 

advising on the formulation and execution of financial policy, budget preparation, 

control and review, fiscal management, public debt servicing, insurance and banking. 

As well as being responsible for the approval of the exercise of public debt within the 

operation of the proposed National Transport Fund. 

Belize Infrastructure Limited as the public company, which acts as an agent of the 

GoB to undertake the design, construction and management of capital projects in 

Belize, has to have a fundamental role in the Transport Sector Planning. BIL currently 

is in charge of the development of the PPP Policy Draft and will be the agency 

responsible for calling for and receiving PPP uncalled proposals; fundamental for the 

implementation of the CNTMP. 

Institutional and Coordination Requirements 

7.3.2.1. General Governance of the Transport Planning 

909. The following figure shows the governance of the Transport Planning System, with a focus 

on the interaction and coordination requirements for its proper operation. 

Figure 7-5: 

Governance of the Transport Planning System 




7.3.2.2. Personnel and Resources Requirements 

910. According to the Belize GSDS 2016-2019, the flexibility of human resources is 

encouraged. Existing public servants may cover the proposed personnel requirements 

after a thorough analysis of capabilities and institutional requirements when possible. 

911. Considering the Planning Unit has the CNTMP as base guideline, a minimal team for its 

operation is being considered. A basic unit of five qualified technical staff is recommended. 

The composition of the team should be as follows: one director or coordinator; and four 

people for technical staff - one for transport sector technical specifications, one for legal 

and institutional considerations, one for environmental and energy, and a person in charge 

of financial planning and programming. It is expected that the existing staff of the MoT 

carry out the administrative functions. 

912. For the Monitoring and Control Unit, the personnel required will depend on the number of 

facilities involved, as well as, available equipment technology and traffic in the monitoring 

stations. An initial scenario identifies the need for the Monitoring and Control Unit’s 

presence in two ports, three PoE, and six cities according to the Public Transport and 

Logistics Action Plan. There should be at least one technical operator and one enforcer; 

it is suggested that the existing Traffic Officers staff under the MoT be utilized. 

913. Finally, the Integrated Transport Information System will require one communications 

officer in charge of the relationships between the technical and operative sections, and 

air, logistics, roads, public transport, and maritime sectors. 

7.3.2.3. Operational Requirements 

914. For the operation of the Transport Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation System the 

requirements are: 

n 

n 

n 

Adequate working spaces for the DoT staff, and software operation training. 

Minimal software requirements: full Microsoft Office package including Word, Excel, 

Power Point and Access. 

Suggested technical software required: 

o For transport planning, traffic simulation and mobility, the suggestions are: 

EMME, TransCAD or Visum. 

o For Geographical Information Systems, the suggestions are: open-source data 

software like gvSIG, Capaware or Saga; or licensed software, such as, ArcGIS, 

Geoserver or MapServer) 

o For Transport Management, which have a wide range of software applications 

the following were identified as options: 

§ WISE which was developed by Royal 4. The system helps manage 

transportation as part of its WMS application and is flexible enough to 

support a number of industries. 

§ 3G-TM which is a comprehensive transportation management system 

suitable for shipping and third party logistics companies. 

§ MercuryGate which is a transportation and supply chain management 

system (SCM) suitable for businesses of any size in a variety of industries. 

It can be deployed as either a cloud-based or an on-site solution. 

§ BluJay Solutions’ Transportation Management which offers cloud-based 

procurement, supply chain planning, execution and settlement 

transportation. 

§ U Route which is a transportation management system that was designed 

to tighten the link between shippers and their core carriers. It offers a host 

of features in a scalable web-based environment. 




n 

Hardware must be able to support the software mentioned above. 

7.3.2.4. Data Requirements 

915. As stated earlier, there is an important lack of data generation and systematization. For 

example, there is no systematic collection of traffic numbers within the city from which to 

make judgments on strategy and investment: no generation of passenger data from the 

private bus operators. In terms of infrastructure, there is no available information on the 

road network condition and the maintenance efforts undertaken; therefore, roads are 

repaired by observation and reaction. 

916. The data requirements for the Transport Planning System will be provided by the ITIS. 

View the ITIS description section. 

Monitoring and Evaluation 

7.3.3.1. Monitoring and Evaluation Procedures 

917. The aim of the evaluation process is to determine the relevance and fulfilment of 

objectives, development efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainability. Evaluations 

investigate the reasons why certain aspects of a project or program have or have not been 

implemented as planned. Moreover, the evaluation helps the accountability in which the 

public resources are used, and at the same time leads to a continuous improvement of 

the exercise of these resources. 

918. Every project or program must be evaluated once internally within the project or program 

cycle. Additionally, projects or programs can also be evaluated externally. In a particular 

case and in the event of an external evaluation being planned, an internal evaluation can 

be excluded. The latter is our case, where the Planning Unit is in charge of monitoring the 

performance of the system and projects whose impact is greater be evaluated and 

analysed by external consultants following the guidelines of the OECD. 

919. The OECD Guidelines intend to support the process of planning, commissioning and 

managing project and program evaluations. They delineate the administrative processes, 

which need to be applied if the costs of project - program evaluations are included in the 

approved budget. The most important principles that must be taken into account during 

the evaluation of the CNTMP projects form the core of the guidelines for the OECD 40: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Objectivity: In its conception and implementation, every evaluation needs to achieve 

a maximum level of objectivity and impartiality. Statement of facts needs to be 

methodically clearly distinguished from assessments. It is important that different 

perspectives be taken into account, as well as strengths and weaknesses. Results, 

conclusions and recommendations need to be supported by evidence and must be 

comprehensible. 

Independence of evaluators: The evaluators must have expert knowledge. Credibility 

also includes the independence of evaluators from all staff involved operatively. 

Participation of all parties concerned in the entire process: An evaluation needs to be 

as participatory as possible; for example, developing jointly the Terms of Reference 

with the project partners, and the possibility of all parties involved to comment on the 

results or the evaluation report. 

Transparency and Focus: The evaluation assignment must be clearly defined and 

focused: description of the initial situation (project program details), objectives of the 

evaluation, central questions, methodologies, qualifications of the evaluation team, 

40 

OECD, Austrian Development Agency, Guidelines for Project and Programme Evaluations 




n 

n 

n 

n 

and reporting requirements. In most cases, an evaluation cannot cover all OECD 

criteria to the same extent; hence, a strict definition of priorities is essential. 

Reliability: The utilization and preparation of basic data is necessary in order to prove 

the assessment and the conclusions in a credible fashion. The evaluation results 

stated in the evaluation report must be comprehensible. 

Completeness and clarity of reports: The report has to be structured according to 

OECD criteria and evaluation questions. All evaluation questions must be answered. 

Fairness and protection of the interests of the parties involved: Security, dignity and 

rights of the persons involved in the evaluation must be protected. 

Utility: Evaluation recommendations are used for improving projects or programs. 

Feedback to political and operative decision makers must be guaranteed through a 

clear responsibility for the implementation of the evaluation results. 

7.3.3.2. The CNTMP Targets and Indicators 

920. To facilitate the future monitoring and assessment of the performance of the CNTMP in 

attaining these objectives, Table 7-4 shows suggested indicators and possible targets. 

For a portion of the objectives listed above, a single target-indicator pair cannot measure 

properly the breadth of the objective and, therefore, more than one indicator is proposed. 

When the Master Plan is adopted, it is recommended to review, revise and expand the set 

of indicators and targets with the participation of cross-sectorial stakeholders, as Ministry 

of Economic Development, Ministry of Works, Ministry of Transport and NEMO, Chamber 

of Commerce, and others. 

Table 7-4: 

Transport Sector Objectives, Targets and Indicators 

Objective 

- Infrastructure 

development 

supporting the 

growth in 

agriculture and 

tourism 

- Increase the 

quality of service 

of the public 


- Increase capacity 

building on public 

institutions 

Targets (2035 unless indicated 

differently) 

- By 2035, to increase the percentage 

that the primary road represents of the 

total road network from 5-6% to 10% 

(7% by 2025). 

- Ensure that the main road corridors 

perform at a competitive level (LOS B) 

for both 2025 and 2035 

- Reduce detention times of bulk vessels 

by 75% in 2035 

- Reduce access times to most of the 

tourist sites by 20% by 2035 

- At least 40% of the inter-city trips are 

done with public transport by 2035 

(today the value is 38% so the main 

target is to keep a similar share) 

- 90% of the population has access to 

regular public transport service in less 

than 30 min from their homes by foot 

- All Ministries and Public Authorities 

related to the transport must have 

followed a capacity building program by 

2025 

Indicators 

- Miles of paved roads over total 

miles of the national network 

- Level of Service (LOS) 

- Detention times of bulk vessels 

for sugar and other products 

operating in Belize City 

- Road travel time from Belize 

City to Altun Ha, Caracol, 

Placencia, Lamanai, 

- Share of the public transport in 

inter-city trips 

- Population covered by the 

catchment area of the public 

transport network 

- Number of capacity building 

programs completed 

- Number of staff trained by 

public entity 




- Transport safety - To reduce by 20% the number of 

fatalities in the road network by 2035 

- Increase resilience - Reduction by half of the number of days 

per year with critical road sections 

blocked or towns cut from the network 

- Increase 

- To reduce by 20% project preparation 

coordination and times 

communication 

mechanisms 

- Resource 

dedication (public 

and private) 

- 2% of GPD of yearly combined 

expenditure on transport infrastructure 

by public and private sectors (IFI not 

included) 

- Number of deaths in road 

accidents 

- Number of days with essential 

infrastructure or towns 

inaccessible 

- Project preparation time 

- Percentage of GDP spent on 

transport infrastructure by 

public and private sector 




ANNEXES 

Preparation for a Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan for Belize Page A-1



ANNEX 1: EXISTING SUGAR LOGISTICS AND OPTIONS 

ANALYSIS 




1. Importance of Sugar Logistics 

The primary and secondary sector are key factors for Belize´s economy. In terms of exports and 

imports the main products are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Sugar cane 

Citrus products: orange and grapefruit 

Banana 

Crude oil 

Fuel 

These five (5) products historically contributed with the 50% of the Belize´s international trade 

(imports and exports). The next figure shows the exported tonnage of these product. 

1,200 

Evolution of External Trade of Belize's Top 5 Products 

1,000 

Netmass (millions lbs) 

800 

600 

400 

200 

0 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

Year 

Banana Sugar and Molasses Citrus Concentrates Crude petroleum Fuel 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017, based on SIB Data 

Within these products, sugar is the main export product and is bound to growth in importance. 

2. Sugar Logistics Alternatives and Cost Comparison 

An evaluation of the logistics chain for the export of sugar was developed considering the current 

situation and two alternatives, with the purpose of determining the convenience of each one of 

them. The situations evaluated are described below: 

n 

n 

n 

Current situation: 90% of the sugar produced at the Belize Sugar Industries (BSI) 

factory is exported through the Port of Belize (PoB). The sugar is shipped in two 

presentations: in bulk and in bags or sacks. 

For the transportation of bulk sugar to the PoB, barges navigate through the New River 

and continue over the Belizean coast to an Ocean-Going Vessel (OGV) anchored 

outside the PoB. 

The transport of sugar in bags is through containers and transported by road from the 

BSI mill to the PoB. 




n 

n 

Solution A 41 : transport from factory by actual fleet of tugs (only between BSI and 

Libertad City), new fleet of barges and tugs, and transfer to Ocean-Going Vessel 

(OGV) at anchorage. 

Solution B: Road transport for bulk sugar from the BSI mill to new facilities in PoB 

that includes storage silos and a semi-mechanized terminal for loading the sugar to 

the ships. 

The logistics chains for every solution are represented in the following diagram: 

Logistic analysis diagram 


The "Study for a Floating Offshore Transfer Terminal for Bulk Sugar in Belize 42 " was selected as 

basis for the logistics cost estimated for the options because it presents the transport cost from 

mill to OGV broken down by components. The study was complemented with estimated land 

transport costs described in the baseline and reference international prices for bulk terminals. 

The costs considered are presented in the following tables: 

41 

Solution established in the "Study for a Floating Offshore Transfer Terminal for Bulk Sugar in Belize", 

European Union 2013 

42 

This study was funded by the European Union as an alternative to solve the molasses and sugar 

transportation through a ship permanently anchored outside the Port of Belize. In addition the alternative 

requires a new fleet of tugs and barges must be purchased by the industry. 

The interview with stakeholders revealed that the company will not invest in acquisition of tugs and barges 

at the required pace, so this solution is not considered feasible in the planning horizon. 




Logistics Costs: Current route 

Cost 43 

USD/ton 

Factory handling $1.61 

Transport BSI to OGV (by barges) $22.25 

Slipway $16.89 

Port Taxes $0.81 

Stevedoring $10.40 

Total cost $51.96 


Logistics Costs: Solution A 44 

Cost 45 

USD/ton 


Transport BSI to OGV (by Barges) $19.09 

Slipway $6.74 

Port Taxes $0.81 

Stevedoring $10.40 



This solution will save 26% of the current cost per ton. 

43 

These costs were obtained from “Study for a Floating Offshore Transfer Terminal for Bulk Sugar in 

Belize”, European Union 2013 and updated by inflation in the period 2011-2016 obtained from the World 

Bank. 

Slipway is due to maintenance of the actual barge fleet. 

Stevedoring represents the trans-shipment from barges to OGV. 

44 

Option A corresponds to Option 3, A of the “Study for a Floating Offshore Transfer Terminal for Bulk 

Sugar in Belize”. 

Slipway is due to maintenance of the actual barge fleet. The cost of slipway for this solution (new fleet) is 

reduced by 70% for the barges and 40% for the tugs against the actual situation. 

45 

These costs were obtained from “Study for a Floating Offshore Transfer Terminal for Bulk Sugar in 

Belize”, European Union 2013 and updated by inflation in the period 2011-2016 obtained from the World 

Bank. 

Transport BSI to OGV considers the transportation in the current fleet of barges from BSI to Libertad City, 

and then the transportation in new fleet barges up to the OGV. 

Slipway is due to maintenance of the actual barge fleet. The cost of slipway for this solution (new fleet) is 

reduced by 70% for the barges and 40% for the tugs against the actual situation. 




Logistics Costs: Solution B 

Cost 46 

USD/ton 


Transport cost by truck (round trip) 47 $7.18 

Port taxes $0.81 

Port handling, storage and ship 

services 48 

$10.08 



This solution will save 62% of the current cost per ton. 

This solution involves the generation of truck trips that currently do not circulate in the Belize 

roads. This trip generation is based on the next assumptions: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

241 BSI operation days per year 

Molasses in 2016 48,980 tons 

Bulk sugar in 2016 98,573 tons 

For both cases, Multi-trailer truck (+7 axle trucks) were considered. Consistent with 

current transportation 49 of sacked sugar in containers 

o For Bulk sugar, hoppers capacity per truck 41.7 Tons 

o For molasses, tanker capacity per truck 48 tons 

Empty return in same day 

Same growth rate considered in BSI production 

The next table shows the daily trucks generated by the BSI factory from Orange Walk Mill to PoB 

for medium and long-term scenarios. 

Daily Trucks: Solution B 

Route 2025 2035 

From BSI to PoB 22 32 

From PoB to BSI 22 32 

Daily MTT 45 63 


46 

Factory handling and port taxes were obtained from “Study for a Floating Offshore Transfer Terminal for 

Bulk Sugar in Belize”, European Union 2013 and updated by inflation in the period 2011-2016 obtained 

from the World Bank. 

47 

Transport cost was evaluated with the formula of “Estimated Land Transport Costs” in Base Line report 

for a 91 km distance from BSI to PoB. 

48 

These costs were estimated with the costs of cargo handling and ship services in a semi-mechanized 

bulk terminal in Veracruz Port, Mexico 

49 

Refined sugar is transported in multi-trailer trucks to PoB. This is a small percentage of the production. 

Currently 30% of sugar production is transported in trucks: 10% for domestic consumption, and 20% as 

containerized exports. 




ANNEX 2: BASELINE ANALYSIS ON VULNERABILITY, 

ADAPTABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE 

CHANGE 




Review of the Policy Framework for Climate Change Mitigation 

and Adaptation 

1.Background and Justification 

The present report is based on a review of the policy framework of Belize regarding 

climate change, specifically on the topics of vulnerability, adaptability and resilience. The 

report is complemented with a series of interviews with decision-makers and stakeholders 

done during a site visit in September 2017. 

Belize´s greenhouse emissions are insignificant compared to other developing countries, 

however, due to its physical location, one of the most active hurricane and tropical storms 

area in the world, will be impacted severely by climate change. Just in 2000 and 2001, 

when they were hit by two hurricanes, the damage due to heavy rain and flooding, was 

45% and 25% of the GDP, respectively (World Bank, 2010). 

Together with its location, its long, low-lying coastline and its more than 1,000 small 

islands, Belize is especially vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate, such as, more 

intense and frequent tropical storms and hurricanes and rising sea levels and flooding 

(Singh, Obretin, & Savoie, 2014), which eventually will have severe impacts on their 

transport infrastructure. Because of the above, Belize has been ranked the 21 th country 

more at risk due to climate change for the Latin America and the Caribbean Region and 

6 th globally in average losses per unit of GDP, based on the Germanwatch Global Climate 

Risk Index, which analyses the quantified impacts of extreme weather events, both in 

terms of fatalities as well as economic losses that occurred (Germanwatch, 2014). 

The country´s vulnerability will increase with the rising in sea level temperatures that we 

are currently witnessing, as it has been mentioned on the Fifth Assessment Report of the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), where it stresses that the risk 

associated with extreme weather events will only increase with rising temperatures, being 

generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities (IPCC, 2014). 

In this regard, over the last years, the Government of Belize (GOB) through its different 

ministries and institutions, has developed several policies to respond to pressing 

environmental issues and to mainstream climate change into its national development 

processes and mechanisms. 

2. Policy framework 

This section presents the various policies developed by the GOB that has a close relation 

to the environment and climate change issues. The supporting documents are from the 

Environmental Act and feature policies and strategies regarding environment, climate and 

energy. 

Specifically, for climate change the main documents mainstreaming the topic are Belize 

Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy 2016-2019 (GSDS), the National Climate 

Change Policy, Strategy and Action Plan (NCCPSAP), both published during 2014, as 

well as, its Nationally Determined Contribution presented by Belize to the United 

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2016, described below. 




2.1 Environmental Protection Act 

Before mainstreaming the climate change topic in its policy framework, Belize made great 

effort in the sustainable management of its natural resources and the protection of the 

environment, by establishing an Environmental Protection Act in 1992, which was revised 

in 2000 and amended in 2009. The Act sets the foundation needed for the protection of 

the environment, through the prevention and control of pollution. 

The Act identifies the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) as a key tool for promoting 

sound development practices, which can be applied to new, as well as, exiting projects. 

The EIA provides information to decision-makers and stakeholders on the short, medium 

and long-term impacts of the projects and the mechanism that may help in their mitigation. 

Currently, the EIA do not integrate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change 

in its process. In that respect, the Department of Environment has identified the need to 

revise the EIA to address the new environmental challenges. 

2.2 2014-2024 National Environmental Policy and Strategy 

The National Environmental Policy and Strategy seeks to develop, adopt and implement 

a more comprehensive natural resources and environmental policy, which considers 

climate change as part of the planning process, as well as, mitigating its effects. 

The document identified four strategic clusters to achieve its objective. These clusters are 

Green, Clean, Resilient and Strong Belize. The first three clusters focus on the 

environmental impacts, and the last one, on issues related to environmental governance 

and institutional capacity (Department of Environment, 2014). 

The Resilient cluster aims to better prepare the country to cope with the effects of future 

shocks caused by more intense natural disasters and volatile weather patterns by 

ensuring healthy and well managed ecosystems that are more resilient and can play a 

key role in: reducing vulnerability, ensuring that climate resilience is integrated into urban 

planning and infrastructure development, ensuring a better management of coastal zone, 

and improving disaster risk management. 

2.3 Belize Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy 2016-2019 (GSDS) 

The GSDS sets a macro roadmap for the GOB to achieve economic, social and 

environmental welfare in the period of 2016-2019, setting the way to fulfilling the 2030 

Agenda. The strategy is the nation’s primary planning document and it establishes that 

disaster risk and climate change resilience are to be mainstreamed into all relevant 

development decision-making, specifically those involving infrastructure investment. 

To achieve its overall goal, the strategy establishes a framework that sets four Critical 

Success Factors (CSF) and a series of Necessary Conditions (NC), as well as, the need 

to develop sectorial programs. 

Among the necessary conditions established in the GSDS, two of them are related to 

transport infrastructure and one to climate change and resilience. 

Regarding infrastructure, the first necessary condition relates to the prioritization of 

strategic sectors for development (N.C. 1.3.7) and the second one focuses on the need 

for adequate infrastructure (roads, ports, energy, water telecommunication and transport) 




as a fundamental basis to expand the production of goods and services and help in the 

economic development of the country (N.C.1.5) (Government of Belize, 2016). 

For the first condition related to infrastructure, the document identified priority sectors as 

key for the development of the country, like tourism, agriculture, energy and marine 

fisheries. To help each of these sectors achieve its development goal, it recognized the 

need to put in place adequate “basic infrastructure”, which includes climate resilient roads 

to key tourism sites and destinations; improved seaports; adequacy of air access by 

undertaking necessary infrastructural upgrades; and water and sanitation services. 

For the second condition regarding transport, concrete efforts to improve infrastructure 

as a fundamental basis on which to expand the production of goods and services are 

identified. For that, actions will be taken on: 1) maintaining the existing primary highways 

and secondary roads network in a good state of repair and incorporating the necessary 

resilient measures to enhance their long-term sustainability; 2) developing a transport 

policy; 3) addressing the seaport competitiveness; and 4) putting in place adequate 

institutional arrangements for the management and expansion of airport infrastructure. 

The necessary condition on disaster risk management and climate change resilience 

(N.C.3.1.3) focuses on strengthening the capacity of the national climate change office to 

continue including climate change considerations into national development planning, 

improving the comprehensive disaster management plan, and implementing the National 

Climate Resilience Investment Plan (NCRIP). 

2.4 National Climate Change Policy, Strategy and Action Plan (NCCPSAP) 

The NCCPSAP seeks to provide policy guidance for the development of an appropriate 

administrative and legislative framework for the country to transition to a low-carbon 

development while strengthening its resilience to the effects of climate change (CCCCC, 

2014). 

The fact that Belize’s vulnerability to climate change is high due to sea level rise and 

extreme storm surge, and that several impacts have been identified, in our case for 

transport services and infrastructure, the NCCPSAP becomes a key guiding policy 

document for several ministries to promote adaptation in the short term and resilience in 

the long term. 

A fundamental pillar of the NCCPSAP is the Climate Change Action Plan, which is a fiveyear 

program, focused on adaptation and mitigation strategies for several sectors, 

transport being one of them. Specifically, for the transport sector, the strategy seeks to 

establish the necessary measures to reduce vulnerability of critical transport and 

communications infrastructure to the impacts of climate change and increase the 

resilience of the transport/communication sectors. 

The plan also identified adaptation actions for the transport sector, which are: a) 

undertake restoration projects to increase the resilience of the coastlines to se level rise; 

b) improve drainage and sanitation facilities to avoid flooding; c) create 

marshlands/wetlands as buffer against sea level rise and flooding; d) improve 

infrastructure to facilitate access to sites and resources, including the paving of roads, 

renovation of docking facilities and installation of signals at critical junctions; and e) 

improve energy efficiency in the transport sector through the transition to sustainable 

transport. 




2.5 National Energy Policy (NEP) 

The National Energy Policy was developed in 2011 and was approved by different 

authorities involved in the energy policy of the country. The policy sets 4 goals focused 

on fostering sustainable production and distribution; minimizing the cost of energy; 

mitigating the impacts of external shocks; and creating a culture of energy efficiency. 

To achieve its goals, the NEP proposed a series of strategies, one of them related to 

promoting the importance of planning for energy efficiency in all the sectors of the 

economy, which includes the transport sector. 

2.6 Energy Strategic Plan 2012-2017 

The plan objective is to integrate energy as a key element for national development 

planning and decision making to catalyze sustainable development. The plan built on the 

National Sustainable Energy Strategy (NSES), by specifying five core strategies to 

achieve a low carbon economy by 2033 (Government of Belize, 2012). 

One of these core strategies was to improve the energy efficiency and conservation 

across all sectors, which includes transport. By improving the energy efficiency, it 

establishes a goal of achieving a minimum reduction in per capita energy intensity of at 

least 30% by 2033. 

2.7 The National Climate Resilience Investment Plan (NCRIP) 

With this plan, Belize embarked on a transformational shift seeking to reform and 

articulate a national planning framework that incorporates climate resilience into its 

national development planning and actions and prioritize climate resilient investment 

within the public-sector investment program and the national budget. 

Through a public participation and consensus-building process, assisted by the World 

Bank, and supported by a multi-criteria and flood susceptibility evaluation, the 

government produced a strategic plan to prioritize investment in the road infrastructure, 

resulting in the Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project. 

The Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project, currently being financed by the World Bank, 

is a five-year project and its main objectives are: to 1) enhance the resilience of road 

infrastructure against flood risk and impacts of climate change; and 2) improve the country 

capacity to respond effectively in a crisis or emergency (World Bank, 2017). The main 

components of the projects are: 

- Component 1, Climate resilience infrastructure: will reduce physical vulnerability of 

critical infrastructure through the retrofitting and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure 

within the primary and secondary roads network. 

- Component 2, Technical assistance for improved climate resilient management: 

will strengthen the technical capacity of the Ministry of Works and Transport, and the 

Ministry of Natural Resources and Agriculture to mainstream climate resilient 

consideration into physical and investment planning and asset maintenance. 

- Component 3, Project management and implementation support: will support 

strengthening and developing the institutional capacity for project management. 

- Component 4, Contingent emergency response: will provide support for immediate 

response to an eligible crisis or emergency. 




The project is currently on its second year, and Components 2 and 3 have advanced in 

their implementation, however, Component 1 is just starting the process of 


2.8 Belize Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Framework Convention 

of Climate Change. 

The Nationally Determined Contribution of Belize is presented as part of the commitments 

of the country to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The NDC is consistent with 

the goals established in the Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy, and is 

supported by several of the policies mentioned previously. The mitigation potential 

established in the NDC covers the following sectors: forestry, electricity, waste and 

transport and is conditional on the availability of cost effective technology, capacity 

building and financial support. 

Regarding the transport sector, the NDC proposed a 20% reduction in fuel use by 2030 

and energy efficiency on the sector through the implementation of policies and 

investments. 

In the component of adaptation, the NDC seeks to build resilience and reduce 

vulnerability of livelihoods with respect to critical infrastructure, tourism, food security, 

sustainable forest and protected areas management, etc. 

3. Vulnerability and resilience 

As has been mentioned throughout the document, Belize is extremely vulnerable to the 

impacts of climate change, having important negative effects in its different transport 

infrastructure (roads, ports, airports). 

According to the “Vulnerability Assessment of Belize Coastal Zone”, undertaken by UNDP 

in 2008, major impacts will occur due to sea level rise and extreme storm surge in the 

coastal zone of Belize (Neal, Ariola, & Muschamp, 2007), where a significant percentage 

of population is located, a bulk of economic activities take place and important transport 

infrastructure is located. In addition to flooding from storm surges, the country is exposed 

to two other types of flooding - river and surface water flooding. Based on these types of 

flooding the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO), as part of the 

Caribbean Handbook on Risk Management (CHARIM) project, developed the following 

map that shows the flooding susceptibility areas for the country. 




Map 1. Flooding susceptibility in Belize (World Bank, 2014) 




Also, through the Road Safety Project, headed by the Ministry of Economic Development, 

these prone flooding areas were mapped against the primary road network of the country, 

as can be seen in the following map. 

Map 2. Flood prone areas and the primary road network in Belize (Ministry of 

Economic Development, 2011) 

As part of the National Climate Resilience Investment Plan, the World Bank, supported 

the GOB to prioritize areas of the road networks that combined the highest risks with 




highest socio-economic criticality 50 to efficiently direct climate-resilient investment, by 

carrying out an assessment and prioritization process that resulted in the identification of 

four (4) key road segments of the network that needed to increase resilience to the 

impacts of natural hazards (World Bank, 2017). The critical areas identified were: 1) 

Greater Belize City area, 2) West of Belmopan, 3) Northern areas around Corozal, and 

4) Southern area around Independence. The results of the exercise were adopted by the 

GOB to develop the National Climate Resilience Investment Project mentioned in the 

previous section. 

The exercise produced two maps, the first one presents the criticality evaluation of the 

primary and secondary roads network, and the second one the flood susceptible areas 

for primary and secondary roads network. Both maps are showed below. 

Map 3. Criticality of the primary and secondary road network (World Bank, 2017). 

50 

Criticality: is the importance of specific segments or nodes in the transport network (road segments, 

bridges, or culverts) in terms of their provision of Access to various economically or socially significant 

location. 




Map 4. Flood susceptibility of the primary and secondary road network (World 

Bank, 2017). 

Tourism it’s a major sector in Belize that has been gowning in the last years, and 

projections shows that this trend will increase over the coming decades. The National 

Sustainable Tourism Master Plans identified six areas around the country as tourism 

priority, therefore, the improving of road infrastructure together with the development of 

air service and its infrastructure becomes a key component for achieving the Master Plan 

goals. 

On aviation, special attention should be paid to airports located within flood prone zones, 

like Belize City Municipal airport, John Greif airport and Caye Caulker airstrip, since they 

are in vulnerable areas prone to flooding, making their vulnerability high. However, the 

criticality of Belize Municipal airport is high while the criticality for the other two airports is 

medium. For Belize City Municipal airport an adaptation plan should be developed. 




The movements of goods and products in the country, is through a multi-modal system 

that includes roads and ports, although trucking is the main mode of freight hauling in the 

country. Improving and maintaining both primary and secondary roads infrastructure is 

crucial for an efficient and effective movement of goods. 

In reference to the two commercial seaports, the Port of Belize Ltd. and the Port of Big 

Creek, currently managed by private entities, there are a series of upgrades that could 

help to address their vulnerability, such as, improvement of the road access conditions, 

improvement in the management of bulk cargo facilities, enhancement of their electric 

plug-in systems and a greater presence from the national authorities to monitor port 

activities, etc. 

Based on its location, together with the different maps shown above, the Port of Belize 

has a high vulnerability, while its criticality is also high based on the current container 

traffic and oil products movement. The Port of Big Creek vulnerability is also high, 

although, its criticality could be evaluated as medium. For the Port of Belize, an adaptation 

plan should be developed. 

The Belize Port Authority should be more involved in monitoring port activities, as well as, 

requesting a vulnerability risk assessment that would help develop strategies for the 

adaptation to climate change. 

4. Recommendations 

The risk associated and the identified impacts due to climate change for the country, 

specifically for the transport sector, such as, damage to valuable infrastructure in the 

coastal areas (ports and airports) and the loss of road infrastructure due to sea level rise 

and flooding, are a major impediment to the efforts being made by the government to 

promote sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, climate resilience 

measures should be contemplated as a fundamental element of the climate and 

investment policies of the country. 

Work needs to be done in the regulatory framework of Belize, since apart from the 

Environmental Protection Regulation of 2011, drafted under the Environmental Protection 

Act, that basically addresses environmental issues, there is no specific climate change 

legislation in Belize. However, advantage should be taken of the existing Environmental 

Impact Assessment, since by only including key elements regarding climate change it can 

become a tool that can help decision makers to include mitigation and resilience as part 

of the existing or future projects. 

It is important to state that the process to increase resilience in the face of climate change, 

require actions in the near term that ensure that the necessary capacities, infrastructure 

and systems are in place over the longer term. 

Maintenance of infrastructure becomes a powerful safeguard strategy in making 

infrastructure more resilient to climate change, since postponing or lacking maintenance 

for any type of transport infrastructure (roads, ports or runways) will increase the 

likelihood of disruption and in the longer term generate greater economic cost for the 

country. 

In the case of road infrastructure, resulting maps from the NCRIP should be used to 

identify when and where the maintenance is needed in the primary and secondary roads 

network. And although, the need for maintenance has already been identified by the 




Ministry of Works, they have a shortage of resources that can result in disruption of 

services. 

Also, vulnerability assessment should become a key evaluation tool, to use to address 

both assets and networks. The assessment would allow prioritization of adaptation efforts 

based on the potential consequence of the natural hazard and climate change and help 

guide the public and private investment in the country. 

5. Inventory of Information 

Below is a list of the important documents identified throughout the research regarding 

climate change, specifically on vulnerability, adaptation and resilience for Belize. 

• Belize Nationally Determined Contribution under the United Framework 

Convention of Climate Change. Government of Belize. 

• Belize National Hazard Mitigation Policy. Government of Belize. 

• Caribbean Handbook on Risk Information Management. World Bank. 

• Climate Resilience Investment Project. Government of Belize 

• Enhancing Belize´s Resilience to Adapt to the Effects of Climate Change. Singh, 

B., Obretin,C., & Savoie, M. 

• Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy for Belize 2016-2019. Government 

of Belize. 

• National Climate Resilience Investment Plan (NCRIP). Government of Belize. 

• National Environmental Policy and Strategy, 2014-2024. Government of Belize. 

• National Climate Change Policy, Strategy and Action Plan (NCCPSAP). 

Government of Belize. 

• National Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030. Government of Belize 

• Prioritizing Climate Resilient Transport Investments in a Data-Scarce 

Environment, A Practitioners´ Guide. The World Bank 

• Vulnerability Assessment of Belize Coastal Zone . Neal, D., Ariola, E., & 

Muschamp, W. UNDP/GEF, Belmopan. 




Review of adaptation challenges for each transport mode 

1. Introduction 

This section includes the revision of key regulations and policy framework for each of the 

transport sub-sectors being studied as part of the Comprehensive National Master 

Transport Plan (CNMTP), with the aim to identify key environmental elements to take into 

consideration in the development of these sectors. 

Due to the importance that the transport sector plays in the economic, social and 

environmental development of the country, and the vulnerability situation Belize faces 

because of to the growing impacts of climate change, there are key environmental 

elements that the sectors need to consider for achieving sustainable development. These 

elements are air quality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the reduction of 

vulnerability. 

The reason to focus on the first two elements, relates to the country’s energy supply, as 

well as, with the current road transport fleet, since mitigation strategies are needed for 

both sectors to increase their resilience. 

Just, in 2010, 68% of the energy supply exported to the country was crude oil. Gasoline, 

jet fuel, kerosene and diesel are imported via ocean tankers from Curacao (Tillett, Locke, 

& Mencias, 2012), and then move around the country using trucks. 

In that same year, the main consumer of energy was the transport sector, with 46.8% of 

total secondary energy consumption. Within this sector, gasoline accounted for 47% of 

all consumption; diesel for 36.9%; and kerosene (used as aviation fuel), crude oil and 

LPG for the remaining 16.1% (IDB, 2014). 

2. Environmental elements 

The following environmental elements should be taken into consideration for a 

sustainable development of the transport sub-sectors considered in the CNMTP. 

a) Air quality: air pollution is a growing concern in developing countries due to the 

human and economic impacts on health, related to the exposure of elevated levels 

of harmful pollutant that increases the incidence of illness and premature death. 

The fact that the transport sector is the main user of fossil fuel in the country, 

makes road transport, together with maritime and aviation, important contributors 

to air pollution, principally in the Belize City area. 

Air pollution from transport can be decreased by reducing emission per unit of fuel; 

consuming less fuel per passenger, or freight, kilometer traveled; or reducing 

passenger, or freight kilometers (World Bank, 2004). The different interventions 

range from improving the sector efficiency to specific regulatory, policy or 

institutional development. 

b) GHG emissions: the transport sector accounts for 49% of total net GHG emissions 

in 2010 (Tillett, Locke, & Mencias, 2012), since it is the main consumer of energy 

in the country. Of the 68% of fossil fuel imported to the country, 90% is used by 

the transport sector. 




To estimate current CO2 emissions the fuel sales data collected by the Ministry of 

Finance has been consulted for 2014, 2015 and 2016. 

Quantity in Gallons 

PRODUCT 2 014 2 015 2 016 

Premium 7 358 442 9 432 738 10 954 695 

Regular 11 518 101 17 790 108 17 364 785 

Kerosene 4 160 550 4 212 390 4 784 430 

Diesel 21 887 792 25 568 172 24 708 474 

GRAND TOTAL 44 924 886 57 003 408 57 812 384 

Source: Ministry of Finance of Belize 

Then, the emissions ratio by type of fuel have been extracted from the US Energy 

Information Administration: 

PRODUCT CO2 emissions/gallon 

(KG) 

Premium 8,89 

Regular 8,89 

Kerosene 9,75 

Diesel 10,16 

Source: US Energy Information Administration 

2016 

Using the information in the table above, it was possible to calculate the CO2 

emissions in tons by year and by type of fossil fuel. 

Quantity in Tons of CO2 

PRODUCT 2 014 2 015 2 016 

Premium 65 417 83 857 97 387 

Regular 102 396 158 154 154 373 

Kerosene 40 565 41 071 46 648 

Diesel 222 380 259 773 251 038 

GRAND TOTAL 430 758 542 855 549 446 

It can be observed that ther is a regular rise of emissions in the country. For 2016, 

the total CO2 emissions by inhabitant in Belize were roughly 1.5 tons/person. To 

provide a reference, for 2016, US produced 5.5 tons/person whilst EU slightly over 

2 tons/person. 

c) Although compared to other countries, Belize’s GHG emissions are minor, the 

GOB included mitigation in its Nationally Determined Contribution presented to the 

UNFCCC, as part of the Paris Agreement. The goal for the transport sector is to 

achieve at least 20% reduction in conventional fuel use by 2030 and promote 

energy efficiency in the sector through appropriate policies and investment. 

Similar intervention used to improve air quality can be applied to reduce the GHG 

of the transport sector. Transport GHG emission reduction strategies target either 

individual vehicles or the transport system. 




d) Reduce vulnerability and build resilience: Belize is extremely vulnerable to the 

impacts of climate change, making adaptation consideration a high priority for the 

GOB. 

Many of the effects of climate change are already being felt on the low lying coastal 

zones impacting many environmental, physical, social and economic systems in 

the country. Some of the sectors that will be impacted are agriculture, fisheries, 

tourism and transport. Therefore, it is of vital importance to promote an integrated 

development plan that will allow the country to adapt in the short term and built 

resilience in the longer term. 

3. Land Transport and its Infrastructure 

Road transport dominates the movements of people and goods in the country. In 2010, 

there were more than 65,000 vehicle licenses in Belize, representing an increase of 

26.5% from year 2007 (IDOM, 2017). Passenger vehicles account for more than 80% of 

the vehicular fleet, while public transport accounts for 7% and good vehicles for 10% 

(EGIS, 2017). 

The Public transport fleet is composed mainly of retired school buses from the United 

States (US), with more than 20 years of use, using diesel as fuel and not designed or 

equipped to accommodate quality service and safety. There are also smaller buses or 

vans, which have smaller capacity, serve mostly in the cities and use either gasoline or 

diesel as fuel. Taxi service is provided using cars, SUVs, vans or small buses, with the 

appropriate service plate. 

In the freight transport, the industry is highly fragmented and most of the vehicles are old 

ones purchased also in the US, with an average age of 13 years. These vehicles operate 

without any enforcing of weight or cargo limits, impacting the fuel consumption and its 

efficiency. 

Belize’s vehicle fleet is old and inefficient, due to the importation of aged vehicles, poor 

maintenance and lack of emission standards. To improve the air quality and reduce the 

GHG emissions of the sector, it is fundamental to implement integrated measures that 

avoid the necessity to travel, shift to more efficient modes of transport and improve the 

energy efficiency of the road transport sector. Therefore, actions need to focus on the 

ways to improve the current public transport system. The development and 

implementation of fuel standards, and vehicle fuel economy and emission standards are 

options that could help improve the efficiency of the sector. 

Regarding road transport infrastructure, the baseline report analysis presented the 

current situation of the primary road network of the country where the upgrading and 

construction needs where identified, as part of making the infrastructure climate resilient. 

Of all the seven primary highways, 6 out of 7 are completely paved, except for the 

Manatee Highway, whose upgrade planning is currently under development. 

The major impact on road infrastructure due to climate change would come from pluvial 




and fluvial flooding, therefore, maintenance becomes a routine necessity to protect the 

pavement from water damage. Special attention must be given to improving the drainage 

conditions, various culverts, and the narrow bridges located in the Hummingbird Highway. 

To improve the overall resilience of the primary road, infrastructure pavement should be 

upgraded so it can handle the growth on heavy traffic load. Also, for safety reasons, road 

shoulder width must be increased. Finally, it is necessary to upgrade the one-lane bridges 

on the primary highways to two-lane ones. 

In relation to the current legal framework for road transport and its infrastructure in the 

country, it encompasses the three following legislations: 

- Public Roads Act (CAP 232). 

- Motor Vehicles and Road Traffic Act (CAP 230). 

- Belize City By-laws (CAP 85). 

The revision of these Acts, showed that none of them consider or include issues related 

to environmental protection, air pollution emissions or climate change mitigation and/or 

adaptation. 

Since all fuel consumed from the transport sector is imported into the country, it is also 

important to consider the policy and regulations of the energy sector. Based on our 

research, the GOB has not enacted any policy or Act on issues related to the use of 

renewal energy, or biofuels for the transport sector. However, the government is aware 

of the need to set policies that can help improve the energy efficiency of the sector. 

In this regard, through its Energy Policy Framework, it has proposed a series of measures 

that can help improve the efficiency of the transport sector from a technological and 

behavioral point of view. Among those measures, the Energy Unit is working on the 

implementation of a low sulfur fuel standard, that will help control the importation of high 

polluting vehicles to the country; a Nationally Appropriated Mitigation Action (NAMA), 

which three components: capacity building, improving of transport terminals and 

improvement of the current fleet through economic incentives, and last but not least, a 

pilot project on e-mobility that contemplates the introduction of electric buses to serve a 

170 miles route, from Belize City to Santa Elena. 

4. Aviation 

Aviation performs an important role in the movement of people to and inside Belize. The 

country has one (1) international airport, Phillip S.W. Goldson, and a network of domestic 

aerodromes - five (5) regional ones with paved runways. 

The international airport has a concession agreement between the Belize Airport 

Authority and a Belize Airport Concession Company (BACC), which makes the 

information of its operation difficult to access. This situation makes it difficult to know the 

policies that the BACC administration has regarding mitigation or adaptation measures 

regarding climate change on the international airport installations. 

Regarding the local aerodromes, infrastructure improvements are needed in some of 

them to face the impacts of climate change, like the eventual relocation of the aerodrome 




in San Pedro, and considerable capital investment for the runway of Caye Caulker 

aerodrome at Placencia in the short term. 

Based on the interview with the Belize Airport Authority (BAA) and the baseline report 

analysis, we confirm the need for adaptation measures in several of the local aerodromes, 

however, only the Belize City Municipal Airport has realized these improvements, which 

included the elevation of the runway, improvement of the drainage system and increased 

of the seashore protection to avoid storm surge. 

The current legal framework for air transport and its infrastructure in Belize encompasses 

the following regulations: 

- Airport Authority (BAA) Act (CAP 238). 

- Civil Aviation Act (CAP 239). 

- Civil Aviation Security Act (2007). 

Of these, only the Civil Aviation Act, includes the topic of environmental impact, 

requesting the development of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the 

construction of any aerodrome in the country. Besides the EIA, none of the three Acts 

considers or includes issues related to air pollution or climate change mitigation and/or 

adaptation. 

In this regard, and since Belize is a member of the Convention on International Civil 

Aviation (ICAO), the country is obliged to comply with the standard and recommended 

practices under the Convention. Among the global priorities of the Convention is the 

protection of the environment, by improving the environmental performance of its member 

countries, through three (3) goals which are to: i) reduce the number of people affected 

by aircraft noise, ii) reduce the impact of aviation on local air quality, and 3) reduce the 

impact of aviation on GHG emissions. 

The BAA should seek to implement the measures being set by ICAO as part of a plan to 

reduce air pollution and mitigate GHG emissions from the aircrafts providing services on 

the different aerodromes of Belize. On the adaptation and resilience issue, evaluation of 

the current situation and needs of the other 14 aerodromes should take place, to reduce 

the impact of climate change and built resilience on the aviation infrastructure. 

5. Maritime 

Belize has two ports that facilitate the trade between the country and the rest of the world. 

The Port of Belize located in Belize City, the largest one where most commercial imports 

and exports are processed, and the Big Creek Port, which usually facilitates the trade of 

fruit, vegetables and crude oil. 

Cruise vessels do not use the port facilities, since they anchor in the Bay of Belize City 

and speed boats transfer passengers to land. 

Regarding water transport and its infrastructure, the current legal framework in the 

country has the following regulations: 

- Belize Port Authority Act (CAP 233). 




- Harbors and Merchant Shipping Act (CAP 234). 

- Merchant Shipping (Amendment and Consolidation) Act. 

- Merchant Ships Act, 1989. 

Like the road transport legislation, none of the Acts mentioned issues related to 

environment protection or climate change mitigation and/or adaptation. 

As it was mentioned in the first section of this documents, there are a series of upgrades 

especially for the Port of Belize Ltd. that could help in the implementation of adaptation 

measures, such as the improvement in the road access conditions, improvement in the 

management of bulk cargo facilities and an enhancement of their electric plug-in systems. 

Belize is member of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from 

Ships (MARPOL), which is the main international convention covering pollution 

prevention of the marine environment by ships. Annex VI of the Convention regulates 

emissions from international shipping, covering issues related to air pollution, energy 

efficiency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, there are no 

recommendations related to adaptation measures. 

Currently, the Belize Port Authority (BPA) responsibilities in both ports, Belize Ltd and Big 

Creek, are limited to port security, hydrography navigation control and a general 

regulatory oversight of the activities, however, due to the need to mitigate the effect of 

marine shipping and enhance the resilience capacity of the ports, BPA must have a 

greater presence to monitor the ports activities and make sure that both commercial ports, 

comply with annex VI of MARPOL convention. 

6. Recommendations 

The above revision of the current legal framework for each of the transport sub-sectors, 

showed once again that apart from the Environmental Protection Regulation of 2011, 

drafted under the Environmental Protection Act (EPA), that basically addresses 

environmental issues, there is no specific climate change legislation in Belize. 

This lack of existing legislation on climate change could be addressed either by 

changing/modifying the existing legislations or developing a new Act that focuses 

specifically on climate change. The GOB should make a careful evaluation to see how 

best to address this issue. 

One way forward could be the amendment of the actual EPA, specifically the EIA chapter, 

for it to include climate mitigation and adaptation measures, as an integral part of the EIA 

review process for both existing and new infrastructure projects. 

Another alternative could be the development of a climate change Act, which provides 

the legal framework needed to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change of the 

different sectors. This legislation can include the reduction GHG targets and adaptation 

strategies, stated in the different policy documents that were analyzed previously in this 

document. 

Among some of the elements that should form part of a new Act related to climate change 

should be a GHG inventory, a GHG emission registry, adaptation measures and marketbased 

mechanism. 




Bibliography 

CCCCC. (2014). A National Climate Change Policy, Streategy and Action Plan to Address 

Climate Change in Belize. Caribbean Community Climate Change Center, Belmopan. 

Department of Environment. (2014). Belize´s Mational Environmental Action Plan, 2015-20120. 

Belmopan. 

EGIS. (2017). Baseline Report Analysis Revised. Belize City. 

Germanwatch. (2014). Global Climate Change Index 2015. Bonn: Germanwatch e.V. 

Government of Belize. (2012). Strategic Plan 2012-2107. Ministry of Energy, Science & 

Technology and Public Utilities, Belmopan. 

Government of Belize. (2016). Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy for Belize 2016- 

2019. Ministry of Economic Development , Belmopan City. 

IDB. (2014). The Energy Sector in Belize. Infrastructure and Environmental Sector, Energy 

Divison, Washington, D.C. 

IDOM. (2017). Baseline Study for Belize City, Climate Change Study. Belize City. 

IPCC. (2014). Summary for policymakers. In:Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and 

Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to 

the Fifth Assessment REport of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 

Ministry of Economic Development. (2011). Road Safety Project. Belmopan, Belize. 

Neal, D., Ariola, E., & Muschamp, W. (2007). Vulnerability Assessment of Belize Coastal Zone . 

UNDP/GEF, Belmopan. 

Singh, B., Obretin, C., & Savoie, M. (2014). Enhancing Belize´s Resilience to Adapt to the 

Effects of Climate Change. 

Tillett, A., Locke, J., & Mencias, J. (2012). National Energy Policy Framework . Belmopan. 

UNFCCC. (2016, 04 20). UNFCCC. Retrieved 10 03, 2017, from NDC registry: 

http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/All.aspx 

World Bank. (2004). Reducing Air Pollution from Urban Transport. Washington D.C. 

World Bank. (2010). Disaster Risk Management in Latin America and the Cribbean Region. 

Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Washington, D.C. 

World Bank. (2014). Caribbeam Handbook on Risk Management. Retrieved 09 28, 2017, from 

Caribbeam Handbook on Risk Information Management: http://www.charim.net/use/322 

World Bank. (2017). Prioritizing Climate Resilient Transport Investments in a Data-Scarce 

Environment, A Practictioners´ Guide. The World Bank, International Bank for 

Reconstruction and Development, Washington. 

World Bank. (2017). World Bank. Retrieved 09 26, 2017, from 

http://projects.worldbank.org/P127338/climate-resillient-infrastructure?lang=en 




ANNEX 3: DEMAND FORECASTS METHODOLOGY AND 

RESULTS 




1 DEMAND MODELING METHODOLOGY 

1.1 Transportation Model 

1.1.1 The Travel Demand Model 

The Travel Demand Model is a series of mathematical models, which simulate the behaviour of 

travellers, between their origins and destinations (O-D). In general, the study area (i.e. Belize) is 

divided into a system of traffic zones, where each traffic zone represents a homogeneous socioeconomic 

entity in terms of its trip generation and trip attractions characteristic. Travel among 

the various traffic zones occurs (simulated) over a simulated road network, composed of 

homogeneous road links in terms of their attributes (capacity, speed, travel costs, etc.). The traffic 

zone system includes “internal zones”, namely zones within Belize land-base; and “external 

zones”, namely gateways into/out of Belize – ports of entry by land, water, or air. 

Traffic volumes are simulated through the interaction between transportation supply (the road 

network) and demand (trips generated or attracted within each traffic zone). Trips simulation 

starts at a trip generating traffic zone. Next, trips are traveling throughout a simulated network of 

links and nodes (each link is identified by its beginning and ending node), and finally, they 

terminate at a traffic attraction zone. These interactions are simulated here through utilization of 

the "PTV Visum" - a specialized modeling software. 

1.1.2 Four-step model 

A transport model is used to explain the number of trips produced and attracted by area, by 

purpose, the probability of using a certain mode of transport, the flows in the arcs of a given 

network, etc. The most common one to use is a classic four-stage model: trip generation in each 

transport zone, trip distribution from origin zone to destination zones, modal split, and assignment 

of trips by mode to the transport network. 

The four-step model uses variables and parameters, such as, socio-economic characteristics of 

individuals, aggregated by zones; individual travel preferences and service levels of modes of 

transport; transport network characteristics, and others that are used to relate trips to these 

characteristics and predict the future behaviour 51 . 

1.1.3 Unavailable Data 

An important part of the four-stage model aims to fully understand how the economy of the region 

works. This requires offering a description of the regional economic base, its growth prospects 

and the role of each area of analysis within that economy. 

n 

n 

The national economy. It is necessary to describe which are the main sources of 

work and production in the country, and where residences and production elements 

are located in it. It should be a good description of the national economy based on its 

transport system and supported by the relevant statistics. 

Population. Demographic information (gender and age distribution and the socioeconomic 

characteristics of the population are important, in particular, the motorization 

rate (cars and / or vehicles per inhabitant) and the average income levels. The 

distribution of income may be important with respect to future prospects of increased 

51 

Annex 1 of the Assessment and Modelling Results Passenger and Freight Demand Forecast and Transport Supply 

Scenario Modelling and Assessment. Revised (07 December 2017) details the main components and sub-models of a 

classic four-stage transport model. 




motorization. Information on the distribution between modes of transport for different 

types of journeys is particularly useful. 

n 

Census and socio-economic information. Periodic official information available or 

produced independently by Institutes, dependencies, etc, ideally in an electronic and 

geo-referenced environment at the level of analysis areas (Districts or smaller areas). 

It is important to mention, several requests for socio-economic information were made to different 

dependencies and institutions of the government of Belize, without favourable response 52 . Table 

below details the key socio-economic data that was not available for the preparation of the 

demand model. 

Requested Information Socio-economic Not Available 

The operation of the classic four-stage transport model requires as input data the origindestination 

vectors of travel for each period of analysis. The estimation of such vectors constitutes 

the objective of the generation / attraction models. 

When household data (mainly income motorization levels correlated with trip purpose and trip 

frequency) and freight data (mainly production, main distribution and consumption centers) are 

available, source vector and a target vector is estimated for each purpose and category of 

demand, but in practice, depending on the available data, the classification by demand categories 

is not always possible. For the households, since these are defined from income levels and 

motorization rates of households, the categorization of origins (travel productions) is easy to do 

for home originating trips. 

1.2 Model Methodology 

1.2.1 The CNMTP Demand Model 

The demand model prepared for the CNMTP is defined as a variation of the Four-Stage Model. 

Due to the limited information available, the Consultant opted to carry out the demand analysis 

through the Origin-Destination (O-D) Source surveys, disaggregated by mode of transport that 

provides a similar result to the Classic four-stage transport model. With this methodology and 

according to the sub-models of the four-stage mode, the Consultant carried out variations of 

"varying" stage 1 and 2 and stage 3, with parameters developed through the estimates compiled 

in the field by the O-D (see Figure below). 

52 

The full listing of requested information and visited public and private agencies is documented in the Base Line 

Report (05 April 2017). The Consultant notes that the agencies have been very collaborative with the CNMTP, but 

particularly regarding to the socio-economic information, this is just not available. 




Variation of the classic four-stage transport model 

PROPOSED VARIATION "FOUR -STEP" TRAVEL DEMAND 

Zones Networks Base - Year data Future Planning data 

Database 

Base Year 

Future 

Land Use Scenarios Transport Scenarios Policy Scenarios 

Evaluation 

Demand 

Supply 

Generation 

Distribution 

Model Split 

Assignment 

Model Transport - Belize 

Origen-Destination 

(OD) matrices 

Matrices by demand 

segment and type of car 

Generalised cost (travel 

times, VOT, Costs) 

Methodology: It´s a variation of 

clasical four-step model 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017. 

The O-D study is based on a survey of users in different areas of the region; obtaining the 

information about the area of origin and destination of the trips, modes, costs, times and other 

data that describe the way in which this trip is made. The main use of the survey is that it 

constitutes the basic input for the analytical planning of transport model schematized in figure. 

The information was segmented given the behaviour of the users in the ODS study. 

n 

n 

Output 

Travel purposes: work, recreation, studies and other, 

Mode: Private transportation, Public Transportation, Air Domestic, Water Taxis and 

Ports. 

This analytical network is a set of nodes and arcs (links), connected in a way which constitutes 

travel routes between “traffic zones” (origins and destinations, defined by the O-D surveys). The 

links are characterized by several attributes of the arc (link), such as link length (meters or 

kilometres), travel time (or speed), either at free flow (without congestion, or at a design speed), 

or under certain circumstances of flow and capacity constraints (associated with the number or 

lanes). 

Each of the traffic zones is represented by special nodes called "centroid", and each centroid is 

connected to the transport network through a special links called "connector". The connector 

represents average travel time/cost within the specific zone. 




1.2.2 Traffic Zones 

The Consultant divided the possible origins and destinations into 93 zones 53 ; however, as the 

model has been refined, the zones were restructured to have a unique representative zone for 

the air domestic and port modes analysis. Based on these considerations, the Consultant 

developed a system of 107 zones, shown in Figure below. 

Traffic external and internal zones, Belize 


The traffic zones are divided into internal zones and external zones: 

n 

Internal Zones: They are geographic areas that are inside the country. In this case, 

all the districts of Belize are considered. Each district considers a smaller 

disaggregation according to the variables mentioned in the Base Line Report. 

53 

The Base Line Report (05 April 2017) details the originally defined traffic zone and the variables considered in their 

definition. 




Note that if it is possible to travel by air (by plane) or by water (by boat, barge, cruise, water taxi, 

etc.), there is a specific internal area depending on the airport (international or domestic) or port 

in which the trip has been done. Each Port Zone or Airport Zone is connected to the network by 

a link connector, with the estimated average speed specifications and a reference capacity much 

greater than a road link (see, for example, 

PGIA zone in and San Pedro airport and water 

taxi port link). 

n 

PGIA zone and connection with 

network (road), Belize 


San Pedro connection airport and port 

zones characteristics 


n 

n 

n 

External Zones: It is considered a group of zones outside Belize, can be close, such 

as, a group of municipalities or countries or distant, such as, a grouping of large areas 

or continents. 

Note that if it is possible to travel by land (by car, bus, truck, etc.), the grouping is 

carried out in the immediate contiguous zones to the country (Belize), Mexico (zone 

300), Guatemala (zone 201-204, 210, 220 and 230). 

The above is considered to strengthen the connection of Belize with the rest of the 

world. 

The tables show, respectively, the codes for each of the internal and external traffic zones 

considered. For a better reference, each zone has a name associated with the nearest and / or 

most representative population of the Analysis Zone. Note that the Table 3-4 and Table 3-5 

specify the exclusive codes for ports and airports. 




Internal Traffic Zones General Codes 





External Traffic Zones General Codes 


Airports Code Traffic Zone 


Ports Code Traffic Zone 

1.2.3 Supply – Modeling Network 

The table and figure below show attributes and characteristics of the network 54 . 

Belize Modeling Network - General 

Modeling Network 

Generalities 

Total 

Connectors 

Internal 102 

External 8 

Zones 107 

Arcs 421 

Nodes 364 


54 

Annex 3 and Annex 4 of the Assessment and Modelling Results Passenger and Freight Demand Forecast and 

Transport Supply Scenario Modelling and Assessment. Revised (07 December 2017) contains an example of the field 

model structure of the network; as well as, of codes used for link's characterization and an example of the Link Model 

Characterization (Software View) respectively. 




Belize Modeling Network 


The modelled road makes a distinction between inter-urban sections and urban sections (only in 

main cities; see, for example, Orange Walk in the figure below). The road network considers 

speed and capacity conditions according to that section 55 . 

55 

The full data base of the modelled roads available upon request. 




Inter-urban and Urban Belize 

Section Network Differentiation in 

Orange Walk (speed) 


1.2.4 Demand 

Weekly Average Daily Traffic (WADT) 

The model represents a Weekly Average Daily Traffic (WADT) which, as indicated in Section 

6.1.5.1. of the Base Line Report, "Weekly Average Daily Traffic" 56 , is the average daily traffic 

based on a weekly count. 

The Consultant notes that this WADT does not include seasonal variations. However, it is based 

on O-D surveys conducted during the peak export and tourism season and, thus, can be 

considered as the WADT at the high season period. The Consultant also notes that, as it is 

customary in national transport studies, it averages the traffic variations during the week and 

during the day. 

Checkpoints 

Thirteen checkpoints in the model correspond to the locations in the O-D surveys and traffic 

counts. See Base Line Report section 6.1.2.1. "Location of Traffic Counts and O-D Survey" 57 . 

Demand Segmentation –Demand Matrices 

Demand matrices were segmented into vehicle group 58 : 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Private Transport (Cars) 

Public Transport (Bus) 

Freight Transport 

1. Single Unit Trucks (Cu) (2-4-axle vehicles) - Semi Trailer 

2. Articulated Trucks 1 (Ca1 - 5-6-axle vehicles) - Trailer 

3. Articulated Trucks 2 (Ca2 - 7-or more-axle vehicles) – Full Trailer 

Water Taxi 

Domestic Air 

And the demand analysis into trip purposes by the Origin-Destination Survey, this consider only 

for: 

n 

Private Transport 

1. Work 

2. Recreation 

3. Study 

56 

Base Line Report 05 April 2017, Section 6.1.5 Road Traffic Counts and O-D – Results 

57 

Base Line Report 05 April 2017, Section 6.1.2 Road Traffic Counts and Road O-D Surveys – Field Methodology 

58 

Road trips that are part of a multimodal chain are not directly identified in the survey, they are considered separate 

trips. 




n 

n 

n 

4. Others (shopping and not categorized) 


1. Work 

2. Recreation 

3. Study 


Water Taxi 

1. Work 

2. Recreation 

3. Study 


Domestic Air 

For Domestic Air, the BAA only started keeping records in March 2017, so have had 

to estimate between actual data and flight schedules. In addition, passengers are not 

required to provide any form of ID for domestic flights, so it is not possible to 

distinguish between locals and tourists, therefore it was not possible to segment into 

purpose trip. 

Proportionality Hypothesis 

The model represents daily trips. Hence, it is assumed that the "generation demand" varies at 

the same rate as the "attraction demand" 59 . In other words, the demand matrices are symmetrical. 

For people doing chained trips during the day before returning to its origin, this hypothesis 

underestimates the total number of road trips; for people doing the return trip next day, this 

hypothesis overestimates the total number of trips. In inter-city trips, chained trips are less 

frequent than, say, in urban trips, whereby a traveller does several errands in the same day. Also, 

due to the proximity of origins and destinations in Belize, overnight trips are also not expected to 

be a frequent happening to invalidate the proportionality hypothesis. 

Seasonal Traffic 

Unfortunately, there is no permanent traffic counting in Belize to calculate an AADT. However, 

traffic counts were carried out during the tourist´s high season (January-February) and crop´s 

season which implies that the model represents the most critical condition and it´s adequate to 

make improvements proposals. 

To in part verify the above hypothesis, an analysis of freight movements, specifically for sugar 

cane (trucks) was conducted (see Figure below). In Station 2, in Orange Walk near the Belize 

Sugar Industries sugar mill, approximately 48% of the trucks counted were classified with sugar 

cane load, reflecting the crop´s high season and, therefore, the most critical scenario. 

59 

For freight movements, and based on the interviews made by the logistic expert to the stakeholders, the consideration 

was that all freight services in the country are based on round trips (implies that they leave the origin / destination zone 

loaded and return empty and / or vice-versa). 


E A 



Freight Analysis (Sugar Cane-Trucks) 

WADT 

Station Sugar Cane Full Freight % Sugar Cane 

1 1 184 0.6% 

2 267 555 48.2% 

3 30 604 5.0% 

13 13 296 

Categorias incluidas 

4.3% 

CANE 

CANE SUGAR 

DRY CANE 

DUGAR CANE 

SUGAR CANE 

SUGAR 

DRY GOODS SUGAR 

San Ignacio 

Corozal 

Orange Walk 

Belize City 

Belmopan 

Dangriga 

BELIZE 

Independance 

Punta Gorda 

C A 

B E A 

R I B 

N S 

SIMBOLOGY 

Mexico 

Station 

Belize 

Guatemala 

Road Classification 

Highway 

Distribution Road 

0 20 40 6 

Kilometers 


1.2.5 Average Speed 

The time measures recorded by the Consultant's GPS equipment was downloaded to a software 

named "mapsource" for further processing and validation. Based on field information, total travel 

time and delays were calculated for each road segment between pairs of checkpoints, for all the 

road sections under consideration. 

Time measures are used to estimate travel speeds. It is calculated via the division of a road 

segment length by the recorded travel time. The average speed of each trip is calculated as 

follows: 

[3.1] 

Where: 

V =Average travel speed (km/h) 

D = Segment or road length under consideration (km) 

åT= Sum of all travel times (min) 

N = measure number of trips 

The Figure below shows operating speeds on each of the seven Primary Highways sections. The 

Coastal Highway shows the highest operating speeds (green). Only three sections show the 

lowest speeds (red): the two exits from the Corozal and Orange Walk towns, and the midpoint of 

the Manatee Road. 

Slow sections at Corozal and Orange Walk occur due to existence of intersections and speed 

bumps. In Manatee Road, poor surface road conditions and flooding are the main causes of 

delays. 

This information was incorporated into the arc attributes in the GIS. 




Operating Speed 


1.3 Model Development and Calibration 

1.3.1 Model Development 

Elimination of Double Counts 

Double Count Definition 

A double count trip is the probability for an O-D being captured at two or more survey points. It 

can be understood as a flow with the same origin and destination, regardless of whether they are 

conducted by the same travellers. What is considered is the probability of being surveyed, not of 

having been surveyed more than once. 

Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a process called “elimination of duplication”. 

Elimination of Double Counts 

The methodology for the elimination of double counts is based on confidence levels as a weighting 

factor. The weighting parameter is the equivalent sampling rate (sample/ trip total) of each station, 

assumed as a confidence indicator suitable for making the combination of demand. This 

methodology provides more weight to the points of surveys having more sampling, which in turn 

leads to less statistical errors. 

The procedure is based on searching a single resulting matrix through the weighting of the 

repeated pairs of the partial matrices, resulting from each of the survey sites. 

Elimination of double counts was carried out for all the O-D survey stations, given that an O-D 

pair may pass through more than one station. 




The methodology for the elimination of double counts is as follows: 

Assignment 

n Matrix assignment carried out by survey number and demand segment. 

n For each O-D pair, sampling rate of every survey is tracked and accumulated in the 

function of the route followed by the O-D pair, included its own sampling rate. 

n For the O-D pairs crossing more than 2 survey points, the weighting factor of each O- 

D pair is estimated as the quotient of the sampling rate of the station over the sum of 

the rates of all the survey points that confirm the route of each O-D pair. 

n For the O-D pairs that do not present duplication, i.e. that the accumulated rate is the 

same as the station in analysis, the weighting factor is defined as one. 

n A new matrix without duplications is generated for every survey station. 

n The equivalent matrix is confirmed by the sum of all partial matrices without 

duplication. 

The simulation of traveller’s behaviour consists of identifying the route people choose to reach 

their destinations. Traffic assignment estimates the number of vehicles in each segment of the 

network. The model chooses the best route for every trip by determining the lower impedance 

between each pair of zones. 

During the assignment, the logical sequence of the path for every O-D pair and the location of the 

connectors are analyzed. The Demand Model keeps the modal consistency found in the field. 

Several mathematical procedures allow the traffic assignment in the network. All the assignment 

procedures are based on an algorithm of impedance optimization for each route. The impedance 

attributes are: 

n 

n 

time 

cost 

The travel assignment is the process where travel demand in the traffic zones interacts with the 

supply provided by the highway network. 

All the trips from all the zones are allocated throughout the network to all the destination zones. 

There are many different methods for travel assignment; for this model, the calibration was carried 

out by using an “all or nothing” algorithm, due to the lack of alternative routes in the network. 

However, for the medium and long-term assignments, the algorithm to be used is based on a 

“generalized cost methodology”, where each single trajectory is determined by factors such as 

minimum time travel (considering speed, capacity, and other factors) and the Vehicle Operation 

Cost (VOC). 

The “all or nothing” basic methodology is to take the shortest path for each inter-connection, 

assigning it to the arcs, and then, adding to each arc, the trips between all the pairs of zones. For 

each O-D pair, the entire -D flow is assigned to the shortest path. The algorithm of the “all or 

nothing” assignment is the Dijkstra 60 algorithm. 

60 

All-or-nothing assignment model/ Module XI Demand Analysis –II 

http://nptel.ac.in/courses/105104098/TransportationII/mod13/11slide.htm 




Generalized Cost Functions 

The generalized transportation cost considers the most important attributes of the route for the 

user’s decision-making, such as, the vehicle operation cost, the travel time cost and the toll when 

dealing with highways. 

The costs of using each arc or alternative will be represented as a generalized cost grouping the 

following variables 61 : 

Where: 

GTC = (VOC + T) * D + TTC D [3.2] 

- GTC = Generalized Transportation Cost ($/km) 

- VOC = Vehicle Operation Cost ($/km) 

- TTC = Travel Time Cost ($/km) 

- T = Toll ($/km) (if applicable) 

- D = Distance (km), (of the section of the road or the route to be travelled in km) 

Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) and Value of Time (VOT) 

VOC were computed using the World Bank developed RED-HDM 4 software, module. Input 

parameters are based on data included in a relevant report by the Caribbean Development Bank 

published in 2014. VOC are calculated in US$ per vehicle-kilometer. VOC values are intended 

to be employed both in the transport model and in the economic analysis of road projects. In 

addition, values of travel times were computed. 

Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) 

Based on the aforementioned input parameters, VOC were computed for seven vehicle 

categories, as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Car 

LGV (light goods vehicle) 

MGV (medium goods vehicle) 

HGV 2 Axles (heavy goods vehicle, 2 axles) 

HGV 3 Axles (heavy goods vehicle, 3 axles) 

Articulated truck (5 axles) 

Bus 

The equivalent vehicle types according to RED-HDM-4 definitions are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Car medium 

Delivery vehicle 

Truck light 

Truck medium 

Truck heavy 

Truck articulated 

Bus medium 

The main input parameters for the calculation of VOC, presented in previous draft reports to 

relevant stakeholders, including MOW, are summarized in the following Tables below. 

61 

Método de asignación de tránsito en redes regionales de carreteras- Publicación Técnica No. 214 Sanfandila, Qro. 

2002 




Car 

Medium 

Vehicle Characteristics 

Delivery 

Vehicle 

Bus 

Medium 

Truck 

Light 

Truck 

Medium 

Truck 

Heavy 

Truck 

Articulated 

Economic Unit Costs 

New Vehicle Cost (US$/Vehicle) 21500 26700 28500 28500 57000 90000 150000 

Fuel Cost (US$/liter) 1.08 1,06 1,06 1,06 1,06 1,06 1,06 

Lubricant Cost (US$/liter) 2.7 2,70 2,70 2,70 2,70 2,70 2,70 

New Tire Cost (US$/tire) 110 220 260 260 260 260 260 

Maintenance Labour Cost (US$/hour) 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50 

Crew Cost (US$/hour) 0,00 2,95 2,95 2,95 2,95 2,95 2,95 

Interest Rate (%) 12,00 12,00 12,00 12,00 12,00 12,00 12,00 

Utilization and Loading 

Kilometers Driven per Year (km) 20000 30000 66700 30000 53500 80000 90000 

Hours Driven per Year (hr) 1800 1160 2320 1200 1500 1500 2320 

Service Life (years) 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 

Percent of time for Private Use (%) 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Gross Vehicle Weight (tons) 1,60 2,20 12,10 6,90 10 18,60 27,70 

Source: module RED-HDM-4, 2017 

Description 

Rise & Fall 

(m/km) 

Terrain Types 

Horizontal 

Curvature 

(deg/km) 

(#) Number 

of Rises & 

Falls 

Superelevation 

(%) 

Flat 10 50 1 3 

Rolling 30 150 2 5 

Hilly 40 250 2 8 


Description 

Road Types 

Surface Type 

1-Bituminous 

3-Unsealed 

Carriageway 

Width (m) 

Speed Limit 

(km/hour) 

Paved 1 7,0 80 

Gravel 3 6,5 60 

Earth 3 5,5 40 


Road Condition Classes Roughness (IRI) 

Road surface 

Road Condition Class (IRI) 

Very Good Good Fair Poor Very Poor 

Paved 2 4 6 8 12 

Gravel 6 8 10 15 20 

Earth 8 12 15 20 25 


Typical VOC values (in US$/Veh-km) by category of vehicle, for various terrains and road 

conditions, expressed by the International Roughness Index (IRI), were presented before in the 




“Assessment and Modeling Results - Passenger and Freight Demand Forecast and Transport 

Supply Scenario Modeling and Assessment. Revised” (07 December 2017). 

Travel Time Costs 

Passenger travel time costs were computed based on the World Bank method. Details of input 

parameters and output time cost values are given in the Table below- 

Estimation of Unit Working and Non-Working Passenger Time Values 

The estimated travel time costs, by passenger vehicle type, are given in the Table below. The 

average vehicle occupancy would tend to decrease as income increases, but the value of time 

would tend to increase (there is no historic information in Belize to estimate correlation between 

vehicle occupancy and income). For this analysis, the Consultant has taken the conservative 

approach of considering that the average passenger time value is constant. 

Estimation of Passenger Time Cost, by Vehicle Type 




1.3.2 Model Calibration 

Model Calibration Methodology 

Calibration of the model consisted of reproducing the vehicular volumes observed in the field 

during the traffic counts. Check points were placed by the modeler to guarantee the reproduction 

of volumes observed in each of the simulation periods. 

Calibration was an iterative process, based on the principle of trial and error, of comparing the 

volumes given by the model with those obtained at the points where the counts were obtained. 

For each assignment, the volume compiled in the field was verified and converted to a WADT, for 

each vehicle group and/or each direction, with the result of achieving a similar assigned volume 

at the same control point. The percentage of adjustment between both measures was calculated, 

utilizing Geoffrey E. Havers formula (GEH) and scatter plots. 

When the GEH was not within the acceptable parameters, the logical and permissible movements 

on the supply model (travel times, connectivity, etc.) were reviewed in a way which assured that 

in the following assignment the modeled-volume was equal to, and/or close in magnitude, to the 

observed-volume in the field. 

The aforementioned calibration process was replicated until the maximum level of representation 

of the observed-volumes was obtained, via analysis of logical travel path strategies for the 

different origin-destination (O-D) pairs. 

The “Assessment and Modeling Results - Passenger and Freight Demand Forecast and 

Transport Supply Scenario Modeling and Assessment. Revised” (07 December 2017) provides a 

detailed description of the calibration methodology and estimations of goodness of fit of modeling 

results. All results show acceptable adjustments between modeled traffic volumes and observed 

traffic volumes, detailed by type of vehicle and counting station. 

Model Calibration Results 

The Table below show the observed and modelled volumes, per station per vehicle group for 

private transport. The Figures below show the resulting calibrating assignment for private 

transport: Cars and Trucks (Truck, Semi-Trailer and Full Trailer). 

Observed Vs. Modelled Volumes, per Station, per Vehicle Group – Private Transport 

Sta. 

District 

Cars Truck Semi-Trailer Full Trailer 

Location Model Obs. Model Obs. Model Obs. Model Obs. 

1 Corozal 1,317 1,339 41 69 26 22 1 2 

2 Orange Walk 1,073 1,073 200 236 44 41 1 2 

3 Orange Walk 1,588 1,563 206 190 86 97 14 15 

4 Belize 1,334 1,293 169 165 42 36 7 6 

5 Belize 3,872 3,953 300 285 54 43 3 1 

6 Belize 1,378 1,252 318 366 26 21 2 2 

7 Cayo 1,794 1,750 215 196 49 51 4 5 

8 Cayo 2,236 2,058 167 148 38 36 3 2 

9 Cayo 1,598 1,807 98 99 21 20 1 2 

10 Stann Creek 767 726 119 99 16 22 0 0 

11 Stann Creek 512 610 96 144 19 21 0 0 

12 Toledo 648 668 119 121 8 1 0 0 

13 Corozal 2,423 2,590 158 126 25 23 1 1 





Calibrated Assignment (Cars), 2017 Calibrated Assignment (Trucks), 2017 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017 Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017 




The Table below shows the observed and modeled volumes, per station per vehicle group for 

private transport. The Figure below shows the resulting calibrating assignment for private 

transport. 

Observed Volume Vs Modeled Volume per Public Transport Station 

Station 

District 

Location 


Model 

Observed 

1 Corozal 58 59 

2 Orange Walk 93 79 

3 Orange Walk 80 85 

4 Belize 79 62 

5 Belize 169 172 

6 Belize 83 79 

7 Cayo 78 75 

8 Cayo 97 91 

9 Cayo 58 63 

10 Stann Creek 66 63 

11 Stann Creek 49 46 

12 Toledo 65 64 

13 Corozal 71 65 


Calibrated Assignment 

(Public Transport), 2017 





2 ROAD DEMAND FORECASTS 

2.1 Base Year (2017) Conditions 

2.1.1 Passenger and freight origin-destination and desire lines 

To illustrate the results, graphic representations of the O-D patterns, termed "desire lines" were 

generated for each vehicle category and public transport. 

Passengers Origin-Destination 

Private vehicles: 

The Figure below depicts the main origin and destinations of private car users. The following 

Table lists the same information, identifying the main origins and destinations and their WADT 

and estimated daily passengers. The Ladyville-Belize City is the most important O-D pair (18% 

of the total) for this vehicle group. The 25 main pairs shown represent 70% of the total demand 

for this vehicle group. 

Main O-D Private Road Vehicle, Belize Base Year (2017) 

Main O-D - Cars, Belize - 2017 





Zone 

Origin 

Main Average Daily O-D Private Road Vehicle, Belize Base Year (2017) 

Zone 

Destinat 

ion 

Origin Reference 

Destination 

Reference 

Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimated 

Passengers 62 

% 

Total 

32 39 Ladyville Belize City 5,493 11,535 18% 

46 55 3 San Ignacio 

2 Benque 

Viejo/Succotz 

1,753 3,680 6% 

1 3 Santa Elena 1 Corozal Town 1,332 2,797 4% 

20 21 Shipyard 1 Orange Walk Town 1,170 2,457 4% 

46 50 3 San Ignacio 1 Belmopan 1,053 2,210 3% 

39 50 Belize City 1 Belmopan 915 1,922 3% 

3 7 1 Corozal Town Ranchito 859 1,803 3% 

3 8 1 Corozal Town San Joaquin 753 1,582 2% 

35 39 Hattieville/Gracie Rock Belize City 752 1,579 2% 

3 21 1 Corozal Town 1 Orange Walk Town 677 1,421 2% 

3 10 1 Corozal Town San Narciso 675 1,417 2% 

21 39 1 Orange Walk Town Belize City 621 1,303 2% 

49 50 Teakettle 1 Belmopan 563 1,182 2% 

3 300 1 Corozal Town Mexico/North America 553 1,162 2% 

30 39 Burrell Boom Belize City 521 1,093 2% 

42 50 

Spanish Lookout/Duck 

Run 

1 Belmopan 504 1,058 2% 

50 51 1 Belmopan Armenia 454 953 1% 

31 39 Sand Hill Belize City 381 800 1% 

77 78 1 Punta Gorda Town 

47 55 4 Santa Elena 

50 55 1 Belmopan 

Forest Home/Wilson 

Road 

2 Benque 

Viejo/Succotz 

2 Benque 

Viejo/Succotz 

370 777 1% 

343 720 1% 

340 714 1% 

60 63 1 Dangriga Town Silk Grass/Hopkins 339 712 1% 

39 46 Belize City 3 San Ignacio 334 701 1% 

3 11 1 Corozal Town 

Concepcion/Benque 

Viejo 

319 670 1% 

21 23 Orange Walk Town San Jose/Sylvester 317 665 1% 


Main O-D Pairs 21,388 44,915 70% 

Rest O-D Pairs 9,341 19,616 30% 

Total 30,729 64,530 100% 

62 

The average occupation factor considered is 2.1 




Public Transport: 

The Figure below depicts the main origin and destinations of road pubic transport users. The 

following Table lists the same information, identifying the main origins and destinations and their 

WADT and estimated daily passengers. The Ladyville-Belize City is the most important O-D pair 

(15% of the total) for this vehicle group. The 25 main pairs shown represent 65% of the total 

demand for this vehicle group. 

Main O-D Road Public Transport, Belize Base Year (2017) 





Zone 

Origin 

Main Average Daily O-D Road Public Transport, Belize Base Year (2017) 

Zone 

Destination 


Destination Reference 

Total 

Passengers 

% Total 

32 39 Ladyville Belize City 6,280 15% 

39 50 Belize City Belmopan 1,992 5% 

35 39 Hattieville/Gracie Rock Belize City 1,975 5% 

21 39 Orange Walk Town Belize City 1,751 4% 

46 50 San Ignacio Belmopan 1,740 4% 

1 3 Santa Elena/Corozal Corozal Town 1,252 3% 

20 21 Shipyard/Orange Walk Orange Walk Town 1,163 3% 

49 50 Teakettle/Cayo Belmopan 934 2% 

21 23 Orange Walk Town 

San 

Jose/Sylvester/Orange 

Walk 

920 2% 

30 39 Burrell Boom Belize City 879 2% 

17 21 San Pablo/Orange Walk Orange Walk Town 799 2% 

60 63 Dangriga Town 

46 55 

59 60 

69 77 

San Ignacio/Santa 

Elena 

Hope Creek/Stann 

Creek 

San Pedro 

Columbia/Toledo 

Silk 

Grass/Hopkins/Stann 

Creek 

786 2% 

Benque Viejo 754 2% 

Dangriga Town 682 2% 

Punta Gorda Town 658 2% 

50 55 Belmopan Benque Viejo 647 2% 

62 66 

Red Bank/Maya 

Center/Stann Creek 

Independence/Stann 

Creek 

646 2% 

58 60 Pomona/Stann Creek Dangriga Town 607 1% 

26 39 Crooked Tree/Gardenia Belize City 572 1% 

48 50 Georgeville/Cayo Belmopan 515 1% 

47 50 Santa Elena Belmopan 459 1% 

31 39 San Hill/Belize Belize City 445 1% 

10 21 San Narciso/Corozal Orange Walk Town 439 1% 

61 66 Placencia/Stann Creek 


Creek 

427 1% 

3 39 Corozal Town Belize City 398 1% 


Main O-D Pairs 27,718 65% 

Rest O-D Pairs 14,740 35% 

Total 42,459 100% 




Summary of Road Passenger: 

The following Table summarizes the average daily road private vehicles and public transport 

passengers for the base year (2017). 

Public 

Transport 

Passengers 

Job 20,113 

Recreation 3,580 

Other 8,967 

Studies 9,799 

Total 42,459 

Summary Trips/Passenger for Vehicle Group 




Freight Origin-Destination 

Semi-Trailer: 

The Figure below depicts the main origin and destinations of the Semi-Trailer group. The following 


and estimated daily tons. The Ladyville-Belize City and the Hattieville/Gracie Rock-Belize City 

pairs are the most important O-D pairs (with 8% of the total each) for this vehicle group. The 25 

main pairs shown represent 60% of the total demand for this vehicle group. 

Main O-D Semi Trailer, Belize Base Year (2017) 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destin 

ation 

Main Average Daily O-D Semi Trailer, Belize Base Year (2017) 



Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 63 

32 39 Ladyville Belize City 233 1,746 8% 


3 8 1 Corozal Town San Joaquin 109 818 4% 

69 77 San Pedro Columbia 1 Punta Gorda Town 107 805 4% 

21 39 1 Orange Walk Town Belize City 105 791 4% 

30 39 Burrell Boom Belize City 95 709 3% 

39 50 Belize City 1 Belmopan 84 630 3% 

60 61 1 Dangriga Town Placencia 71 531 2% 

5 21 Patchakan 1 Orange Walk Town 60 448 2% 

9 21 San Pedro 1 Orange Walk Town 59 440 2% 

46 230 3 San Ignacio Guatemala City 58 435 2% 

20 21 Shipyard 1 Orange Walk Town 57 426 2% 

10 21 San Narciso 1 Orange Walk Town 54 406 2% 

38 39 La Democracia/Churchyard Belize City 47 353 2% 

3 21 1 Corozal Town 1 Orange Walk Town 47 350 2% 

60 66 1 Dangriga Town Independence 46 341 2% 

39 52 Belize City St. Matthews 44 332 1% 

46 50 3 San Ignacio 1 Belmopan 43 326 1% 

42 50 Spanish Lookout/Duck Run 1 Belmopan 43 326 1% 

42 230 Spanish Lookout/Duck Run Guatemala City 42 316 1% 



Road 

% 

Total 

42 313 1% 

21 23 1 Orange Walk Town San Jose/Sylvester 36 271 1% 

32 86 Ladyville Port of Belize 35 261 1% 

35 86 Hattieville/Gracie Rock Port of Belize 34 257 1% 



Main O-D Pairs 1,812 13,594 60% 

Rest O-D Pairs 1,190 8,928 40% 

Total 3,003 22,521 100% 

63 

The average of tons considering round trip weight is 7.5 Tons 




Trailer: 

The Figure below depicts the main origin and destinations of the Trailer group. The following 


and estimated daily tons. It is observed that the main O-D trips take place within Orange Walk 

District, only this pair represents 16% of all trips. The 25 main pairs shown represent 65% of the 

total demand for this vehicle group. 

Main O-D Trailer, Belize Base Year (2017) 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destin 

ation 

Main Average Daily O-D Trailer, Belize Base Year (2017) 



Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 64 

% 

Total 

20 21 Shipyard 1 Orange Walk Town 95 1,325 16% 

1 3 Santa Elena 1 Corozal Town 31 429 5% 

32 39 Ladyville Belize City 28 398 5% 


47 230 4 Santa Elena Guatemala City 18 247 3% 


50 52 1 Belmopan St. Matthews 16 222 3% 

3 24 1 Corozal Town San Felipe/Dos Bocas 15 203 2% 



18 21 San Estevan 1 Orange Walk Town 10 143 2% 

65 87 San Roman Port Big Creek 10 141 2% 

21 86 1 Orange Walk Town Port of Belize 10 134 2% 


50 60 1 Belmopan 1 Dangriga Town 9 126 2% 

32 42 Ladyville Spanish Lookout/Duck Run 8 115 1% 

42 50 


Run 

1 Belmopan 8 111 1% 



52 58 St. Matthews 

Pomona/Hummingbird 

Community 

6 89 1% 


1 21 Santa Elena 1 Orange Walk Town 6 84 1% 



65 66 San Roman Independence 6 79 1% 


Main O-D Pairs 380 5,318 65% 

Rest O-D Pairs 203 2,838 35% 

Total 583 8,155 100% 

64 

The average of tons considering round trip weight is 14 Tons. 




Full Trailer: 

The Figure below depicts the main origin and destinations of the Full Trailer group. The following 


and estimated daily tons. It is observed that the main O-D trips take place within Orange District 

(Yo Creek/San Lorenzo- Shipyard with 17% of the total and San Estevan-Shipyard with 13% of the total) 

and between Orange Walk and Belize District with 14% of the total. The 10 main pairs shown 

represent 84% of the total demand for this vehicle group. 

Main O-D Full Trailer, Belize Base Year (2017) 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destin 

ation 

Main Average Daily O-D Trailer, Belize Base Year (2017) 



Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 65 

% 

Total 

19 20 Yo Creek/San Lorenzo Shipyard 8 136 17% 

21 32 1 Orange Walk Town Ladyville 6 108 14% 

18 20 San Estevan Shipyard 6 102 13% 



Community 

4 66 8% 




35 50 Hattieville/Gracie Rock 1 Belmopan 3 44 6% 

48 230 Georgeville Guatemala City 2 29 4% 

3 300 1 Corozal Town Mexico/North America 2 27 3% 


Main O-D Pairs 39 668 84% 

Rest O-D Pairs 8 128 16% 

Total 47 796 100% 

Summary of Freight Vehicles: 

The following Table summarizes the Average Daily truck trips for the base year (2017). 

Summary of Average Daily Trips for Trucks 2017 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trucks 

Base year (2017) 

Segment Trips Average Tons* 

Semi Trailer 3,003 22,521 

Trailer 583 8,155 

Full Trailer 47 796 

3,632 31,472 

* The average of tons considering Round trip weight 


65 

The average of tons considering round trip weight is 17 Tons. 




2.1.2 External trade products origin-destination and desired lines 

The below Figure shows desire lines (in tons) for the major external trade products presented in 

baseline. 

Desired lines for major export products baseline (tons) 





2.1.3 Modal split - private vehicle to public vehicle 

Introduction 

To refine the information collected during the field work carried out at the beginning of the project 

(origin-destination survey and counts), additional surveys were applied to have a better 

understanding about cars and public transport users’ behaviour and opinion and to estimate the 

modal shift from public transport to car and from car to public transport. 

The application was made from October 30 to November 1 of this year. The surveys were applied 

in the following points: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Bus Terminal Belmopan 

Bus Terminal Belize City 

Gas stations Belmopan 

Gas stations Belize City 

Ministry zone in Belmopan 

A total of 302 surveys were applied to users who made inter-urban trips in public transport and 

car. The following Table presents the number of surveys applied by mode of transport and 

purpose. 

Number of Opinion Surveys by mode and purpose 

Purpose of 

Travel 

Public 

Transport 

Cars 

Work 106 87 

Tourism 5 3 

Foreign Tourism 2 0 

School 17 4 

Recreation 22 14 

Shopping 8 8 

Business 12 14 

Total 172 130 


The following sections present the characterization of the surveyed travellers and of their trips 

with regard to gender, age, purpose of travel, average travel time, frequency of travel, household 

car ownership and usage, stated preference on buying a car and usage of public transport, and 

user opinion of the transport service. 




Characterization of travellers of public transport and cars 

n 53% of public transport users are women. 

n The majority (61%) of private transport users are men. 

Gender distribution of Opinion Survey 


Cars 

47% 

53% 

39% 

61% 

Female 

Male 

Female 

Male 

n 

For both modes of transport most users are in the age range of 26 to 45 years. 

Age distribution of Opinion Survey 


Cars 

3% 1% Less than 17 years old 

7% 

31% 

17 to 25 years old 


14% 

9% 

12% 



58% 


More than 56 years 

old 

65% 


More than 56 years old 


n 

n 

In both modes of transport, the main purpose of the trip is for work. 

The local and foreign tourism is almost null. 

Purpose of travel distribution of Opinion Survey 


Cars 

4% 

7% 

Work 

Tourism 

6% 11% 

Work 

Tourism 

1% 

3% 

12% 

10% 

63% 

Foreign Tourism 

School 

Recreation 

Shopping 

Business 

3% 

0% 

2% 

11% 

67% 

Foreign Tourism 

School 

Recreation 

Shopping 

Business 





n The average time of travel by public transport is 87 minutes. Only 15% of public 

transport users travel less than 30 minutes. 

n For cars, the average travel time is 62 minutes. 29% of these users travel less than 30 

minutes. 

Average travel time 


Cars 

10% 

15% 

15% 

Less than 30 minutes 

31 to 60 minutes 


10% 

12% 

6% 

29% 

Less than 30 minutes 



18% 

42% 


More than 121 

minutes 

43% 


More than 121 

minutes 


n 

Most of the trips are frequent for both modes. 

Frequency of the same trips and same mode 


Cars 

23% 

10% 

18% 

64% 

13% 

72% 

Twice 3 times 4 or more 

Twice 3 times 4 or more 


Public Transport User and Availability of Cars 

n 

n 

n 

49% of the public transport users have at least one car. 

Their siblings are the ones who use it most often. 

When available, they did not use it to travel because of cost. 




Who in the household owns the car? 

Who uses the car the most? 

49% 

51% 

45% 

48% 

No 

Yes 

7% 

Husband/Wife Children Sibling 


Why did not you use it for this trip? 

Cost 

Security 

23% 

Comfort 

12% 

48% 

Travel time 

No driving license 

5% 

7% 

5% 

The car wasn’t 

available 


n 

35% of the public transport users who will buy a car in the near future and from these 

users 43% will stop using public transport. 

Will you buy a car in the near future? 

How long? 

Less than a year 

35% 

26% 

21% 

1 year 

65% 

18% 

35% 

2 years 

3 or more years 

No 

Yes 





Will you stop using the public transport? 

44% 

56% 

No 

Yes 


Users’ opinion of the public transport service 

n 

Most (80%) of the public transport users have reported that they never had to wait for 

buses with available seats. 

Do you wait for buses with seats available? 

18% 

2% 

Several time a 

week 

Several time a 

month 

80% 

Never 


Opinion on public transport 

n There is a better perception about cleanliness, safety, reliability and frequency. 

n The worst perception is on over-crowding (not very different from the previous 

question) and unavailability of air conditioning. 

n The overall perception is that 16% think it is poor, 12% fair, 37% that is average, 34% 

that is good and 13% that is excellent. 




Opinion on public transport 

100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

Cleanliness 

inside bus 

Safety while 

on-board 

Reliability 

of service 

Frequency 

of service 

Over-crowding 

1 poor 2 3 4 5 excellent 

Bus Air 

Conditioning 

Systems 

Overall 

service 


n 

n 

The most important aspect is the safety of buses, followed by travel time reduction 

(more direct and faster services and frequency). 

Less important is the infrastructure (park and ride, bus stop) and fare. 

Public transport improvements 

100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

Bus service 

to new areas 

More direct 

service 

Faster service 

Earlier 

morning service 

Later 

evening service 

More frequent 

weekday service 

More buses 

because there… 

Lower fares 

More bus 

stop shelters 

More bus 

stop seating 

More park 

and ride lots 

Bus Air 

Conditioning… 

Modern buses 

Safer buses 

1 NOT important 2 3 4 5 important 


n 

n 

Most of the public transport users will be ready to pay 10% more to have a better 

service. 

17% do not agree for an increase of the fare. 




Maximum fare increases willing to pay to obtain improvements on service 

0% 1% 0% 1% 

9% 

17% 

72% 

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 


n 

n 

n 

The worst evaluated factor is the lack of the communication of schedule and 

availability of seats inside the station. 

Absence of air conditioning, general comfort and security are also pointed out. 

The best evaluation is about shops and restaurants inside the station, even if those 

services are limited in the station. 

Evaluation of services in the bus terminal 

100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

Comfort 

Security 

Shops and 

restaurants 

1 Dissastified 2 3 4 5 Sastified 

Air Conditioning 

Systems 

Communication 

of schedule 

Availability 

of seating 

at the station 





Cars user’s opinion of the public transport service 

n 61% of car users know how to travel in public transport and of these users only 44% 

know the cost of the trip. 

Do you know the option to travel by bus? 

Do you know the cost of this bus trip? 

39% 

44% 

61% 

56% 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 


n 

12% of car users indicate that they may shift from cars to public transport if public 

transport services are improved. The main improvement expected is to reduce the 

travel time and the second one is the renewal of fleet. 

What would you need to leave a car and use public transport? 

3% 12% 

24% 

Bus Renewal 

Time reduction 

61% 

Infrastructure 

Security 





2.1.4 Road assignment and level of service 

Primary Highway Base Network 2017 Assignment 

The Figure shows the assignment of private vehicles (cars) over the Primary Highway Base Case 

Network 2017. This base network includes the existing highway network plus on-going and 

already financed projects. The main movements in the country are presented in the George Price 

Highway and Philip SW Goldson Highway. The major demand is presented in the transit between 

San Ignacio, Benque Viejo, Belmopan, Belize City and the border with Guatemala. The second 

major demand is presented between Belize City, Orange Walk Town, Corozal and the Border 

with Mexico. Additionally, the segment between Ladyville and Belize City presents the highest 

assignment of the complete network. 

Primary Highway Private Road Vehicle Base Network 2017 Assignment (Trips) 


Note: See highway numbering in Error! Reference source not found. below 




The Figure below shows the assignment of trucks (semi-trailers, trailers and full trailers) over the 

Primary Highway Base Network 2017. Even when the heavy vehicles present their highest 

demand in the George Price Highway, it is mainly between Belmopan and Belize City. On the 

other hand, the transit between Belize City, Orange Walk Town, Corozal and the border with 

Mexico is higher than the other sections. 

Primary Highway Freight Base Network 2017 Assignment (Trips) 


Note: See highway numbering in below 




The Table below shows the light (cars) and heavy vehicle (semi-trailers, trailers and full trailers) 

percentages on the main roads. 

Primary Highway Improved Base Network 2017 Assignment 


As shown in the table, the Southern Highway presents the highest average speed with 103 km/h, 

nevertheless as shown below, this is one of the Highways with the lowest traffic. On the other 

hand, the George Price and Philip SW Goldson Highways, present average speeds of 73 and 72 

km/h respectively as consequence of their assignation. 

The heavy percentage in the Corozal Bypass is high considering the following statements and it 

is presented in this Figure. 

n 

n 

The trucks have a long itinerary, 

and some of them use the 

Bypass, because heavy vehicles 

present different behaviour 

compared to light vehicles 

The cars represent local transit 

between P1, P2 and Corozal and 

do not use the Bypass 

Corozal Bypass Analysis 

Level of Service (LOS) 2017 




Level of Service definition: 

The Level of Service (LOS) defined by the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) is a qualitative 

measure which describes the operating conditions of a vehicle flow and its perception by the 

drivers or the passengers. These conditions are described in terms of factors such as: speed and 

travel time, freedom of manoeuvres, comfort, convenience, and road safety. 

The Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM 2000) establishes six Levels of Service categories 

denominated: A, B, C, D, E and F, where A, is the best, and F is the worst. The Table below 

shows them schematically. 

Analysis of LOS 

Region Density Volume Speed 

Characteristics of 

circulation and flow 

1 low Little Free Excellent, free 

2 Increasing Increases Free Good, stable 

de 2 a 3 Increasing Increases 

3 Increasing Maximum 

Somewhat 

restricted 

Decreases 

considerably 

Moderately, good, 

stable, partially free 

Some congestion, 

unstable, partially free 

4 

The jam 

density 

It decreases and 

can reach zero 

Can reach zero 

Forced queuing 

Source: HCM analysis from 2000 

Speed 

Volume 

Factors affecting LOS are: 

n 

n 

Internal factors corresponding to variations in the speed, volume and vehicular 

composition of the traffic 

External factors, which are the physical characteristics of the road including width, free 

lateral distances, slopes, etc. 

Input required to define the LOS are: 

n 

n 

The vehicle capacity of the highway sections 

The highway sections’ speeds 

The HDM 2000 has set up the procedure for estimating the LOS for a two-lane highway. This 

capacity or "flow rate" is mainly affected by three factors: (i) composition of the traffic, referring to 

the presence of heavy vehicles; (ii) the type of terrain, referring to the slope percentage; and (iii) 

peak hour, referring to volumes during peak hour. The Consultant followed the HDM 2000 

procedure in estimating the LOS for the Belize roads. The “Assessment and Modeling Results - 

Passenger and Freight Demand Forecast and Transport Supply Scenario Modeling and 




Assessment (Revised 07 December 2017) provides a detailed description of the LOS estimation 

methodology and results obtained for the Belize roads. 

LOS Estimation: 

The Figure below shows the Level of Service of the Primary Highway Base Network 2017. All the 

main roads are at service level B, except for Phillip S.W. Goldson Highway which presents a 

current service level of A. The stretch from San Ignacio to Guatemala shows a level C. 

Primary Highway Base Network 2017 Level of Service (LOS) 





2.2 Forecasts: Medium (2025) and Long (2035) Term 

2.2.1 Introduction 

The forecast used as input to the demand model includes: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Population 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and revenue forecast 

Tourism 

Port Imports and Exports 


Water Taxi 

Logistics (Cargo) 

The main driving forces behind the forecasts are population and GDP growth. Research revealed 

that the latest reliable data on vehicle ownership in Belize are from 2008 (SIB). So even vehicle 

fleet estimate for 2017 (Base Line), were derived by applying GDP growth (2008-2017) and 

assumed elasticity of vehicular ownership to GDP. 

Note, an attempt was made to estimate each of the components above, based on sub-sector data 

(trend) and formal existing forecasts. However, where no data were available, the model resorted 

to estimation of vehicular growth on population and GDP forecasts. 

The model included a trend forecast, leading to one demand scenario. 

2.2.2 Population and GDP forecasts 

Demographic Profile of Belize 

The average population density is 16.5 inhabitants per km2. This density is low compared to 

neighbouring countries: 

n Guatemala: 132 

n Honduras: 68 

n Mexico: 62 

Total population, population density, and urbanisation rate per district 

Population 

2016 

Urbanisation 

rate 

Source: SIB 

Area 

(km2) 

Population 

density 

(h/km2) 

Belize 108 596 73% 4 310 25 

Cayo 88 704 50% 5 200 17 

Orange Walk 55 266 30% 4 600 12 

Stann Creek 39 140 28% 2 550 15 

Corozal 49 103 25% 1 860 26 

Toledo 37 159 17% 4 410 8 

TOTAL 377 968 51% 22 930 16 

Population density also varies greatly by district. The most populous districts are those of Corozal 

and Belize in the north. The least populated is that of Toledo in the south. 




The annual growth rate of the population was 2.6% between 2000 and 2010. There was no 

increase in the rate of urbanization; the growth of the rural population (2.76%) is even slightly 

higher than the urban population (2.46%). 

Population forecasts 

According to estimates by the Statistical Institute of Belize, past trends and population projections 

by 2020 are as follows: 

Population: past trend and population forecast (2020) 

2000 2010 2015 2020 

Rural 134,565 176,621 202,847 231,950 

Urbain 114,351 145,832 165,463 187,249 

According to SIB estimates, the population is expected to reach 419,000 in 2020. 

Population growth by district is shown in the following table. It is observed that outside the district 

of Cayo and Belize, the population remains very predominantly rural. 




Population: past trend and population forecast (2020) 

Urban 

Rural 

Corozal Orange Walk Belize Cayo Stann Creek Toledo 

2 020 

2 015 

2 010 

2 000 

2 020 

2 015 

2 010 

2 000 

2 020 

2 015 

2 010 

2 000 

2 020 

2 015 

2 010 

2 000 

2 020 

2 015 

2 010 

2 000 

2 020 

2 015 

2 010 

2 000 

6,530 32,995 

5,910 29,018 

5,351 25,434 

4,455 19,687 

10,680 35,335 

10,108 29,757 

9,593 24,731 

8,767 16,671 

56,253 

46,629 

37,957 

24,050 30,421 

13,665 

13,687 

13,708 

13,741 

13,314 

11,722 

10,287 

7,986 

86,807 

77,407 

68,936 

55,352 

39,708 

35,779 

32,238 

26,560 

37,176 

33,808 

30,774 

25,908 

45,861 

41,247 

37,089 

15,318 

40,875 

33,238 

26,355 

Source: SIB 

Population projections for the year 2036 according to United Nations - Department of Economic 

and Social Affairs are as follows (annual growth rate): 

n 2016 – 2021: 2,04% 

n 2021 – 2026: 1,83% 

n 2026 – 2031: 1,58% 

n 2031 – 2036: 1,36 % 

This growth is clearly an assumption of trend growth. 

However, over the period 2016 - 2021, the growth rate used by UN-DESA is somewhat lower 

than those estimated by the Statistical Institute of Belize (2.6%). The following growth rates were, 

therefore, considered in the trend assumption: 

n 2016 – 2020: 2,6% 

n 2020 – 2025: 2,3% 

n 2025 – 2030: 2% 

n 2030 – 2035: 1,7% 

By 2035, the population of Belize would then know the following evolution in the trend hypothesis: 

n 2016: 378 000 

n 2020: 418 000 

n 2025: 468 000 




n 2030: 517 000 

n 2035: 562 000 

To calculate populations for each of the areas of the demand-forecasting model, the trends are 

estimated using the following methodology: 

1. Global population growth forecast. 

2. Application of district growth rates estimated for 2016-2020 by the SIB to the next 

horizons. 

3. Calculation of future populations for each traffic zone according to district growth 

rates. 

4. Adjustment using a coefficient to ensure consistency with the forecasts at the national 

level presented above. 

The map on the next page shows the population densities in 2016 (shown in number of points) 

and the evolution of the population (absolute value) between 2016 and 2035 (symbols). 

Population growth is strong in 

Belize City / Ladyville, 

Belmopan and San Pedro. 

The detailed results are 

presented in the following 

Table. 

Population Density 

(2016), and 

Population Growth 

2016 to 2035 

Source: SIB 




Population forecast – Trend Hypothesis 

Zone 

number 

District 

Population 

2016 

Population 

2020 

Population 

2025 

Population 

2030 

Population 

2035 

1 Corozal - - - - - 

2 Corozal 419 452 492 526 557 

3 Corozal Town 15 613 17 288 19 354 21 199 22 916 

4 Corozal 854 921 1 002 1 072 1 136 

5 Corozal 1 642 1 771 1 926 2 062 2 185 

6 Corozal 1 882 2 030 2 208 2 363 2 504 

7 Corozal 1 600 1 727 1 878 2 010 2 130 

8 Corozal 3 013 3 251 3 536 3 785 4 011 

9 Corozal 1 658 1 789 1 946 2 083 2 207 

10 Corozal 7 769 8 382 9 118 9 758 10 340 

11 Corozal 5 092 5 494 5 976 6 396 6 777 

12 Corozal 2 182 2 354 2 560 2 740 2 904 

13 Corozal 3 821 4 122 4 484 4 799 5 085 

14 Corozal 3 165 3 415 3 715 3 975 4 213 

15 Corozal - - - - - 

16 Corozal - - - - - 

17 Orange Walk 3 184 3 461 3 796 4 089 4 358 

18 Orange Walk 1 985 2 157 2 366 2 549 2 716 

19 Orange Walk 2 960 3 218 3 529 3 801 4 051 

20 Orange Walk 16 275 17 689 19 400 20 900 22 273 

21 Orange Walk 

Town 

23 089 23 058 23 024 22 997 22 973 

22 Orange Walk 717 780 855 921 982 

23 Orange Walk 3 419 3 716 4 075 4 390 4 678 

24 Orange Walk 2 277 2 475 2 715 2 925 3 117 

25 Belize 1 795 2 118 2 545 2 952 3 351 

26 Belize 1 941 2 290 2 752 3 191 3 623 

27 Belize 844 996 1 196 1 387 1 575 

28 Belize 1 349 1 592 1 912 2 218 2 517 

29 Belize 1 270 1 498 1 800 2 087 2 370 

30 Belize 2 650 3 127 3 756 4 357 4 946 

31 Belize 2 201 2 597 3 120 3 618 4 108 

32 Belize 11 054 13 043 15 670 18 174 20 631 

33 Belize 1 503 1 773 2 130 2 471 2 805 

34 Belize - - - - - 

35 Belize 3 105 3 664 4 402 5 106 5 796 

36 Belize 93 110 132 153 174 

37 Belize - - - - - 

38 Belize 422 498 598 694 788 

39 Belize City 68 291 72 038 76 427 80 159 83 490 

40 Belize 354 418 502 582 661 

41 Cayo 1 908 2 077 2 282 2 461 2 626 

42 Cayo 6 486 7 061 7 756 8 367 8 927 

43 Cayo 2 846 3 098 3 403 3 671 3 917 

44 Cayo 184 201 221 238 254 

45 Cayo 573 624 685 739 789 




Zone 

number 

District 

Population 

2016 

Population 

2020 

Population 

2025 

Population 

2030 

Population 

2035 

46 San 

Ignacio/Santa 

15 783 17 598 19 854 21 884 23 783 

Elena 

47 San 

Ignacio/Santa 

10 334 11 522 12 999 14 329 15 572 

Elena 

48 Cayo 3 190 3 472 3 814 4 115 4 390 

49 Cayo 3 649 3 972 4 363 4 707 5 022 

50 Belmopan 22 063 27 463 35 014 42 617 50 424 

51 Cayo 5 225 5 687 6 248 6 740 7 190 

52 Cayo 1 829 1 991 2 187 2 359 2 517 

53 Cayo 3 250 3 537 3 886 4 192 4 472 

54 Cayo - - - - - 

55 Benque Viejo 10 143 10 752 11 469 12 082 12 631 

56 Cayo 732 797 875 944 1 007 

57 Cayo - - - - - 

58 Stann Creek 4 653 5 339 6 217 7 031 7 811 

59 Stann Creek 1 628 1 868 2 175 2 460 2 732 

60 Punta Gorda 12 266 13 285 14 513 15 586 16 564 

61 Stann Creek 4 608 5 287 6 157 6 962 7 735 

62 Stann Creek 3 215 3 688 4 295 4 857 5 396 

63 Stann Creek 3 752 4 305 5 014 5 670 6 299 

64 Stann Creek 960 1 101 1 283 1 450 1 611 

65 Stann Creek 2 640 3 029 3 527 3 989 4 431 

66 Stann Creek 4 890 5 611 6 534 7 389 8 209 

67 Stann Creek 1 768 2 028 2 362 2 671 2 967 

68 Toledo 1 631 1 807 2 025 2 220 2 401 

69 Toledo 9 442 10 464 11 725 12 853 13 903 

70 Toledo 4 190 4 643 5 203 5 704 6 170 

71 Toledo 234 259 290 318 344 

72 Toledo 1 808 2 004 2 245 2 461 2 662 

73 Toledo 3 274 3 628 4 066 4 457 4 821 

74 Toledo 307 341 382 418 453 

75 Toledo 980 1 086 1 217 1 334 1 443 

76 Toledo 1 488 1 649 1 848 2 025 2 191 

77 Toledo 6 392 7 084 7 938 8 702 9 412 

78 Toledo 1 456 1 613 1 808 1 982 2 143 

79 Toledo - - - - - 

80 Toledo 475 526 590 647 700 

81 Toledo 982 1 088 1 219 1 337 1 446 

82 Toledo 1 087 1 205 1 350 1 480 1 601 

83 San Pedro 

14 054 17 503 22 328 27 189 32 182 

Town 

84 Belize 2 106 2 484 2 985 3 462 3 930 

85 Belize - - - - - 

TOTAL 377 968 418 093 468 413 516 586 562 024 

Annual growth rate 2,6% 2,3% 2,0% 1,7% 




Gross Domestic Product and revenue forecast 

The growth in transport demand is not only related to population growth, but also to the general 

level of income of the population; and this is true for the transport of both people and goods. 

In a simplistic way, we can say that the growth of the GDP comes from the growth of the 

population and the level of wealth of this population. If population growth rates and GDP are 

similar, GDP per capita does not change. 

As stated in the baseline report, 

n 

n 

during the period 2005 - 2015, real GDP increased on the average by about 3.5% per 

year. 

As for the future: The SIB estimates an average annual growth rate, about 2.35% per 

annum, up to the year 2020. 

Between now and 2020 an average growth rate of 2,35%, corresponding to the forecast of the 

SIB, is selected in the framework of this study. This growth rate is close to that of the population 

(2.65% per year until 2020) and even slightly lower: GDP per capita is therefore stagnating. 

Beyond 2020, it is difficult (if not impossible) to forecast GDP growth and it is rather growth 

objectives that need to be defined. 

Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy for Belize defined “Critical Success Factors” 

(CSFs) 66 

n 

n 

CSF 1: “Optimal National Income and Investment,” Belize will seek to achieve real 

output growth of 5% annually over a prolonged period leading to a sustained 

improvement in per capita income 

CSF 2: “Enhanced Social Cohesion and Resilience,” the general aim will be to build a 

society in which individuals feel a sense of belonging, a society that is inclusive and 

that provides opportunity for social mobility. Toward this end, the country will seek to 

completely eradicate poverty by 2030, and to achieve more equitable income 

distribution. 

While 5% appears to be a relatively optimistic goal that will be difficult to achieve, the National 

Transport Master Plan of Belize is based on relatively sustained growth, like that observed 

between 2005 and 2015. 

n 2016/2020 2,35% 

n 2020/2025 2,50% 

n 2025/2030 3,00% 

n 2030/2035 3,50% 

66 

- Ministry of Economic Development - Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy for Belize 2016-2019 




Revenue forecasts 

District GDP data are not available. However, data on average revenue by CTV are available for 

the year 2010 (source: SIB). This data is an estimate of the average monthly income from 

employment or business, before taxes and deductions. 

These data were processed to estimate the average income per zone of the model. The map on 

the following page presents the average income per capita (total income / population) for 2010 

(in BZD 2010). The average income is higher in the northern Belize District and more generally 

in the eastern areas near the coast, except for Toledo, a district in the south of the country. The 

areas where the average income is the lowest are in the extreme south of the country 

Average income per capita - 2010 - BZD 2010 

Source: SIB 

To access the total income growth per zones for 2016 (income data is only available for 2010) a 

global growth rate was applied, equal to the growth rate of the total national income (current 

prices, source: IMF). The result is an estimate of the total revenue per zone in 2016 BZD. 




Between 2016 and 2020, an overall GDP growth equal to that described in the previous chapter 

(2.35%) is adopted. Beyond 2020, overall growth remains that of the GDP indicated previously, 

but weighted by the perspectives of development of agriculture and tourism. 

Areas with high potential for agricultural development are shown on the map below (see also 

chapter related to logistics issues) 

Zones with anticipated agricultural development 

Source: IDB 

Areas with high tourism potential are included in the chapter of this report dedicated to tourism 

development issues. These areas are: 

n 

n 

South Eastern Coast Belize 

Southern Belize 

Thus, the total revenue per transport zone in 2025, 2030 and 2035 is determined by 

n 

n 

the growth of the population, 

the growth of income per capita 

under the constraint of a global objective of GDP growth. These two variables depend on the 

considered transport zone. 




Three types of zones have been defined: 

n 

n 

n 

Zone B: high potential for agricultural or tourist development. 

Zone C: high potential for agricultural and tourist development. 

Zone A: other areas. 

Income per capita - Annual growth rate 

2025/2020 2025/2030 2030/2035 

Zone A 0,07% 0,70% 1,56% 

Zone B 0,09% 1,17% 1,76% 

Zone C 0,12% 1,40% 1,95% 

The results per model transport zones are presented in the table below. 

Total revenue per zone 

Zone 

Total income 

2016 

Total income 

2020 

Total income 

2025 

Total income 

2030 

Total income 

2035 

1 - - - - - 

2 1 582 817 1 690 716 1 845 301 2 090 752 2 415 238 

3 54 469 659 59 711 904 67 044 280 77 721 559 91 560 153 

4 1 617 286 1 727 534 1 885 487 2 136 283 2 467 835 

5 2 829 947 3 022 861 3 299 247 3 738 093 4 318 248 

6 3 429 555 3 663 343 3 998 291 4 530 119 5 233 196 

7 4 124 218 4 405 361 4 808 152 5 447 704 6 293 190 

8 8 194 539 8 753 150 9 553 469 10 824 214 12 504 138 

9 2 929 376 3 129 067 3 415 164 3 869 429 4 469 967 

10 14 310 337 15 285 854 16 683 472 18 902 607 21 836 303 

11 9 085 772 9 705 138 10 592 498 12 001 449 13 864 081 

12 4 719 383 5 041 097 5 495 596 6 084 074 6 961 074 

13 8 971 804 9 583 401 10 447 429 11 566 157 13 233 383 

14 6 949 641 7 423 389 8 092 674 8 959 251 10 250 699 

15 - - - - - 

16 - - - - - 

17 6 281 320 6 759 353 7 428 554 8 277 881 9 524 144 

18 4 976 079 5 354 778 5 884 921 6 557 760 7 545 053 

19 9 041 676 9 729 783 10 705 556 12 208 990 14 182 806 

20 39 762 262 42 788 324 47 079 448 53 691 050 62 371 231 

21 77 936 829 77 057 372 77 305 572 81 833 104 89 200 563 

22 912 334 981 766 1 081 486 1 247 676 1 463 362 

23 6 066 133 6 527 789 7 182 443 8 191 110 9 515 359 

24 9 002 270 9 687 378 10 646 464 11 863 704 13 649 825 

25 5 144 046 6 009 281 7 241 477 8 983 984 11 213 573 

26 7 525 803 8 791 653 10 594 370 13 143 679 16 405 596 

27 2 862 760 3 344 280 4 025 320 4 936 644 6 102 942 




Zone 

Total income 

2016 

Total income 

2020 

Total income 

2025 

Total income 

2030 

Total income 

2035 

28 4 982 078 5 820 070 6 997 116 8 384 842 10 266 602 

29 4 931 691 5 761 207 6 926 349 8 300 040 10 162 768 

30 11 928 594 13 934 999 16 753 201 20 075 834 24 581 334 

31 10 029 235 11 716 165 14 102 083 17 294 766 21 380 711 

32 51 973 797 60 715 856 72 994 979 87 471 944 107 102 754 

33 8 632 453 10 084 442 12 123 911 14 528 425 17 788 953 

34 - - - - - 

35 13 092 450 15 294 617 18 387 788 22 034 605 26 979 701 

36 333 070 389 092 467 782 560 556 686 359 

37 - - - - - 

38 1 130 388 1 320 521 1 587 582 1 902 445 2 329 399 

39 332 564 291 347 319 897 369 437 122 400 957 143 451 032 577 

40 690 856 807 059 970 277 1 162 711 1 423 651 

41 3 931 832 4 237 310 4 675 233 5 400 699 6 341 382 

42 18 187 934 19 601 023 21 601 550 24 667 276 28 687 158 

43 6 634 528 7 149 989 7 879 734 8 998 038 10 464 396 

44 363 508 391 751 431 734 493 006 573 348 

45 1 410 917 1 520 536 1 673 771 1 867 569 2 151 134 

46 54 171 280 59 800 409 67 736 266 79 926 001 95 567 791 

47 31 985 025 35 308 702 39 901 124 45 476 384 53 341 617 

48 9 023 870 9 724 968 10 705 019 11 944 503 13 758 111 

49 9 705 798 10 459 878 11 513 991 12 847 142 14 797 803 

50 92 597 426 114 112 243 145 465 135 182 802 049 233 143 046 

51 10 996 165 11 850 498 13 059 988 14 913 482 17 343 845 

52 5 314 896 5 727 829 6 312 426 7 208 295 8 382 989 

53 7 215 689 7 776 303 8 569 971 9 786 235 11 381 040 

54 - - - - - 

55 26 665 393 27 985 072 29 961 383 33 423 005 38 100 441 

56 1 276 250 1 375 406 1 514 015 1 689 316 1 945 815 

57 - - - - - 

58 13 902 599 15 791 991 18 433 604 22 051 819 26 687 016 

59 5 797 648 6 585 561 7 687 164 9 196 028 11 128 994 

60 46 484 419 49 845 236 54 632 432 62 110 398 71 959 182 

61 24 833 669 28 208 616 32 888 816 38 443 840 46 079 393 

62 6 375 795 7 242 279 8 463 606 10 242 359 12 514 780 

63 13 111 817 14 893 740 17 364 817 20 297 789 24 329 250 

64 3 552 846 4 035 685 4 710 756 5 635 401 6 819 937 

65 5 347 480 6 074 214 7 090 281 8 481 987 10 264 864 

66 16 751 482 19 028 043 22 210 969 26 570 618 32 155 648 




Zone 

Total income 

2016 

Total income 

2020 

Total income 

2025 

Total income 

2030 

Total income 

2035 

67 6 159 427 6 996 506 8 166 850 9 769 869 11 823 454 

68 2 815 663 3 089 282 3 467 818 3 931 043 4 589 627 

69 13 467 948 14 776 727 16 587 350 18 803 060 21 953 214 

70 9 513 521 10 438 019 11 730 695 13 609 147 16 042 650 

71 707 055 775 765 870 821 987 144 1 152 524 

72 3 473 228 3 810 747 4 277 685 4 849 091 5 661 480 

73 5 074 381 5 567 495 6 249 692 7 084 516 8 271 414 

74 487 992 535 414 601 020 681 303 795 444 

75 1 543 297 1 693 271 1 900 751 2 154 650 2 515 627 

76 2 911 745 3 194 700 3 586 153 4 065 186 4 746 243 

77 27 592 898 30 274 301 33 983 873 38 523 382 44 977 363 

78 2 547 114 2 794 636 3 140 732 3 643 662 4 295 199 

79 - - - - - 

80 883 795 969 680 1 088 497 1 233 896 1 440 616 

81 1 537 219 1 686 602 1 895 475 2 199 001 2 592 212 

82 1 304 727 1 431 516 1 608 800 1 866 419 2 200 161 

83 81 388 435 100 350 707 128 144 540 164 883 744 212 405 861 

84 10 296 374 12 028 238 14 477 707 17 755 430 21 950 210 

TOTAL 1 320 357 834 1 452 479 386 1 643 347 106 1 901 994 366 2 255 649 049 

Annual 

growth rate 2,4% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 




Car ownership forecast 

As stated in the baseline report, car ownership - defined as the number of people living in a 

household with a private car - is quite low in Belize 

Car ownership and income per capita per district and main cities and town 

District and main cities 

and town 

Income per 

capita 

Car ownership 

per household 

Corozal Town 4 305 34% 

Corozal Other 2 563 16% 

Orange Walk Town 4 165 38% 

Orange Walk Other 3 020 16% 

Belize City 6 009 36% 

San Pedro, A.C. 7 146 32% 

Belize Other 5 527 34% 

Belmopan 5 179 44% 

Benque Viejo 3 252 32% 

San Ignacio 4 235 40% 

Santa Helena 3 819 31% 

Cayo Other 3 051 21% 

Dangriga Town 4 671 31% 

Stann Creek Other 4 046 21% 

Punta Gorda Town 4 860 36% 

Toledo Other 2 144 11% 

Source: Census 2010 

The table above shows motorization rates by district and major cities. 

The graph below shows the correlation between average income and motorization rate for these 

districts and major 

cities. 

Car ownership and 

average 

population 

income 67 

Source: Census 2010 

Car ownership (% of pop living in a 

household with a car) 

50% 

45% 

40% 

35% 

30% 

25% 

20% 

15% 

10% 

5% 

0% 

y = 1E-05x 1.1946 

R² = 0.7309 

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 

Income per capita - BZD 

Logically, therefore, a correlation is observed between the household equipment rate and the 

average per capita income. 

67 

With the exception of San Pedro A.C. because of its island characteristics that make it a special case. 




From this correlation can be deduced the elasticity between the increase in income per capita on 

the one hand and the household equipment rate on the other hand. This elasticity coefficient is 

1.2. 

The table below shows the evolution of the resulting motorization rates, considering the income 

growth previously defined. 

Percentage of population living in a household with a car 2016, 2020, 2025, 2030 

City / town 

Transport 

zones 

Car 

ownership 

2016 

Car 

ownership 

2020 

Car 

ownership 

2025 

Car 

ownership 

2030 

Car 

ownership 

2035 

Corozal Town 3 34% 34,0% 34,2% 36,13% 39,3% 

Corozal Other 1-2, 4-16 16% 16,4% 16,5% 17,35% 18,8% 

Orange Walk 

21 38% 38,1% 38,3% 40,49% 44,0% 

Town 

Orange Walk 17-20,22- 16% 15,6% 15,7% 16,49% 17,9% 

Other 

24 

Belize City 39 36% 36,4% 36,6% 37,85% 40,8% 

San Pedro, 

83 32% 32,5% 32,7% 35,02% 38,88% 

A.C. 

Belize Other 

25- 34% 34,4% 34,6% 36,57% 39,8% 

38,40,84 

Belmopan 50 44% 44,4% 44,7% 46,51% 50,3% 

Benque Viejo 55 32% 31,6% 31,7% 32,83% 35,4% 

San Ignacio 46 40% 39,6% 39,8% 42,08% 45,7% 

Santa Helena 47 31% 31,4% 31,6% 33,77% 37,1% 

Cayo Other 

41- 

45,48,49,5 

21% 21,1% 21,2% 21,91% 23,6% 

Dangriga 

Town 

Stann Creek 

Other 

Punta Gorda 

Town 

Toledo Other 

1-54,56,57 

60 31% 30,9% 31,1% 32,69% 35,5% 

58,59,61- 

67 

68-75,78- 

82 

21% 20,8% 20,9% 22,08% 24,0% 

77 36% 36,2% 36,4% 38,19% 41,4% 

11% 11,2% 11,2% 11,61% 12,5% 

2.2.3 Medium and long-term modal split vehicles to public vehicle 

Modal shift (Car - Public Transport or Public Transport - Car) 

To estimate the modal shift from public transport to car and from the car to the public transport, 

the following was done: 

n 

Stated preference question for both mode of transport users was made within the 

survey. For example 

o From Public Transport: 

§ Are you planning to buy a car in the near future? 

§ How long are you planning to buy a car? 

§ With the purchase of this car you will stop using public transport? 




o From Cars 

§ If the public transport had a significant improvement. Would you be willing 

to use public transport? 

n 

The percentage of users who would be willing to change their mode of transport was 

obtained from the SP. 

Public Transport Passengers 2017 

Purpose of 

Travel 

Passengers 

Split from Public 

Transport to Car 

Work 20,113 13% 

School 9,799 5% 

Recreation 3,580 8% 

Other 8,967 3% 

Total 42,459 9% 


Cars 2017 

Purpose of 

Travel 

Cars 

Split to Public 


Work 18,065 19% 

School 860 25% 

Recreation 3,119 0% 

Other 8,684 3% 

Total 30,729 12% 


n 

Transforming the car to passengers, according to the occupation rate (as surveyed). 

Purpose of 

Travel 

Cars Passengers 2017 

Cars 

Split to Public 


Passenger 

Cars 

Work 18,065 19% 6,219 

School 860 25% 323 

Recreation 3,119 0% 0 

Other 8,684 3% 547 

Total 30,729 12% 7,089 





n 

Finally, the following results are obtained. 

Business as usual: No Modernization of Public Transport 

Purpose of 

Travel 

Shift from 

Public 

Transport to 

Car (pax) 

Shift from 

Car to Public 

Transport 

(pax) 

Balance in 

public 

transport 

(pax) 

Balance in 

public 

transport 

(%) 

Work 2,514 0 -2,514 -13% 

School 490 0 -490 -5% 

Recreation 275 0 -275 -8% 

Other 289 0 -289 -3% 

Total 3,569 0 -3,569 -8% 


n 

Business as usual: no modernization of public transport, trend commented by public 

transport companies and confirmed by the survey will follow: people will buy more cars 

and split from public transport to private transport (cars). 

Purpose of 

Travel 

CNTMP Scenarios: Modernization of Public Transport 

Shift from 

Public 

Transport to 

Car (pax) 

Shift from 

Car to Public 

Transport 

(pax) 

Balance in 

public 

transport 

(pax) 

Balance in 

public 

transport 

(%) 

Work 2,514 6,219 3,705 18% 

School 490 323 -167 -2% 

Recreation 275 0 -275 -8% 

Other 289 547 258 3% 

Total 3,569 7,089 3,520 8% 


n 

CNTMP Scenarios: If there is modernization of public transport, it will permit to revert 

the trend, modal shift between public transport and car and from car to public transport 

will be favourable to public transport. Most of the shift to public transport is for work 

purpose which is expected because of the high frequency of trips. 

The following tables summarize the impact of the modal choice for private and public transport. 

Impact Modal Choice Final Balance for Private and Public Transport (2025) 

Public 

Transport 

Segment 

Demand 

Modal Choice Impact (%) 

BASE 2025 2025 Final Balance 

Job 20,112 25,693 30,645 -16% 

Study 9,799 12,126 11,913 2% 

Other 8,966 10,825 11,138 -3% 

Recreation 3,580 5,521 5,097 8% 

Private 

Transport 

Job 18,065 23,707 20,986 13% 

Study 860 1,047 1,189 -12% 

Other 8,683 10,513 10,363 1% 

Recreation 3,119 4,687 4,872 -4% 





Impact Modal Choice Final Balance for Private and Public Transport (2035) 

Public 

Transport 

Segment 


Demand 

Impact (%) 

BASE 2035 2035 Final Balance 

Job 20,112 33,658 40,122 -16% 

Study 9,799 14,816 14,549 2% 

Other 8,966 12,955 13,331 -3% 

Recreation 3,580 9,085 8,388 8% 

Private 

Transport 

Job 18,065 30,990 27,439 13% 

Study 860 1,259 1,438 -12% 

Other 8,683 12,590 12,411 1% 

Recreation 3,119 7,484 7,787 -4% 

2.2.4 Medium and long-term passenger and freight origin-destination and desired lines 

Passengers Origin-Destination 

Private vehicles: 

The following Figures depict the main forecasted origin and destinations of private car users for 

2025 and 2035 respectively. The Tables below list the same information, identifying the main 

origins and destinations and their WADT and estimated daily passengers. The Ladyville-Belize 

City is the most important O-D pair (19% of the total in both forecasted years) for this vehicle 

group. The 25 main pairs shown represent 69% of the total demand for this vehicle group. 

Public Transport: 

The following Figures depict the main forecasted origin and destinations of public transport users 

for 2025 and 2035 respectively. The Tables below list the same information, identifying the main 

origins and destinations and their WADT and estimated daily passengers. The Ladyville-Belize 

City is the most important O-D pair (17% of the total in both forecasted years) for this vehicle 

group. The 25 main pairs shown represent 66% of the total demand for this vehicle group. 

Summary of Road Passengers: 

The Tables below summarize the average daily road private vehicles and public transport 

passengers for the forecast years 2025 and 2035. 




Main O-D Private road vehicle, Belize 2025 (Trips) 





Main O-D Private road vehicle, Belize 2035 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destin 

ation 




Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimated 

Passengers 68 

% Total 


46 55 3 San Ignacio 2 Benque Viejo/Succotz 1,730 3,632 5% 



39 50 Belize City 1 Belmopan 1,297 2,723 3% 



3 7 1 Corozal Town Ranchito 899 1,887 2% 


49 50 Teakettle 1 Belmopan 766 1,609 2% 




42 50 


Run 

1 Belmopan 678 1,424 2% 



50 51 1 Belmopan Armenia 613 1,288 2% 

50 55 1 Belmopan 2 Benque Viejo/Succotz 531 1,115 1% 

31 39 Sand Hill Belize City 464 974 1% 

77 78 1 Punta Gorda Town Forest Home/Wilson Road 430 903 1% 





3 11 Corozal Town Concepcion/Benque Viejo 353 741 1% 

Main O-D Pairs 25,766 54,109 69% 

Rest O-D Pairs 11,644 24,457 31% 


Total 37,410 78,565 100% 

68 






Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destination 


Destination 

Reference 

Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimated 

passengers 

69 

% 

Total 



39 50 Belize City 1 Belmopan 1,867 3,922 4% 

46 55 3 San Ignacio 

2 Benque 

Viejo/Succotz 

1,858 3,901 4% 



35 39 Hattieville/Gracie Rock Belize City 1,318 2,767 3% 

49 50 Teakettle 1 Belmopan 1,076 2,260 2% 

3 7 1 Corozal Town Ranchito 1,073 2,254 2% 


42 50 


Run 

1 Belmopan 983 2,065 2% 




50 51 1 Belmopan Armenia 886 1,860 2% 


50 55 1 Belmopan 

2 Benque 

Viejo/Succotz 

816 1,714 2% 


31 39 Sand Hill Belize City 618 1,299 1% 



Road 

564 1,185 1% 

60 63 1 Dangriga Town Silk Grass/Hopkins 556 1,167 1% 

50 52 1 Belmopan St. Matthews 523 1,098 1% 

48 50 Georgeville 1 Belmopan 469 984 1% 

47 50 4 Santa Elena 1 Belmopan 443 930 1% 



Tmain O-D Pairs 33,833 71,049 69% 

Rest O-D Pairs 15,242 32,009 31% 

Total 49,075 103,058 100% 

69 





Main O-D Road public transport, Belize 2025 











Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destination 



Total 

Passengers 

% Total 


46 50 San Ignacio/ Belmopan 2,951 5% 






30 39 Burrell Boom Belize City 1,305 2% 

49 50 Teakettle/Cayo Belmopan 1,295 2% 

46 55 


Elena 

Benque Viero 1,113 2% 

50 55 Belmopan Benque Viero 1,072 2% 



Silk 


Creek 

San 


Walk 

1,019 2% 

1,005 2% 


59 60 

69 77 


Creek 

San Pedro 


Dangriga Town 846 1% 

Punta Gorda Town 814 1% 

58 60 Pomona/Stann Creek Dangriga Town 799 1% 

62 66 

Red Bank/Maya 



Creek 

767 1% 

48 50 Georgeville/Cayo Belmopan 763 1% 


47 50 Santa Elena Belmopan 726 1% 


3 300 Corozal Town Mexico 603 1% 

3 21 Corozal Town Orange Walk Town 563 1% 

61 66 Placencia/Stann Creek 


Creek 


517 1% 



Total 58,793 100% 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destination 



Total 

Passengers 

% Total 


46 50 San Ignacio/ Belmopan 4,493 6% 





30 39 Burrell Boom Belize City 1,745 2% 


49 50 Teakettle/Cayo Belmopan 1,693 2% 

50 55 Belmopan Benque Viero 1,593 2% 


46 55 

69 77 


Elena 

San Pedro 



Silk 


Creek 

1,291 2% 

Benque Viero 1,130 1% 

Punta Gorda Town 1,106 1% 

San 


Walk 

1,091 1% 

47 50 Santa Elena Belmopan 1,085 1% 

48 50 Georgeville/Cayo Belmopan 1,082 1% 

59 60 


Creek 

Dangriga Town 1,053 1% 

58 60 Pomona/Stann Creek Dangriga Town 1,010 1% 



62 66 

Red Bank/Maya 



Creek 

966 1% 


3 300 Corozal Town Mexico 815 1% 

50 51 Belmopan Armenia/Cayo 745 1% 

50 77 Belmopan Punta Gorda Town 722 1% 




Total 76,390 100% 




Summary Trips/Passenger for Vehicle Group 2025 

Vehicle 

Group 

Private 

road 

vehicle 

Medium Term 2025 

Segment Trips 

Average 

Passengers* 

Job 20,986 49,785 

Recreation 4,872 9,844 

Other 10,363 22,078 

Studies 1,189 2,200 

Total 37,410 83,908 

* The average occupation factor considered is 2.1 

Public 

Transport 

Passengers 

Job 30,645 


Other 11,138 

Studies 11,913 

Total 58,793 


Summary Trips/Passenger for Vehicle Group 2035 

Vehicle 

Group 

Private 

road 

vehicle 

Long Term 2035 

Segment Trips 

Average 

Passemgers* 

Job 27,439 65,081 

Recreation 7,787 15,717 

Other 12,411 26,441 

Studies 1,438 2,646 

Total 49,075 109,884 

* The average occupation factor considered is 2.1 

Public 

Transport 

Passengers 

Job 40,122 


Other 13,331 

Studies 14,549 

Total 76,390 





Freight Origin-Destination 

Semi-Trailer: 

The following Figures depict the main origin and destinations of the Semi-Trailer group for 2025 

and 2035 respectively.The Tables below list the same information, identifying the main origins 

and destinations and their WADT and estimated daily tons. The Ladyville-Belize City and the 

Hattieville/Gracie Rock-Belize City pairs are the most important O-D pairs (with 8% of the total 

each in both forecasted years) for this vehicle group. The 25 main pairs shown represent 60% of 

the total demand for this vehicle group. 

Trailer: 

The following Figures depict the main origin and destinations of the Trailer group for 2025 and 

2035 respectively. The Tables below list the same information, identifying the main origins and 

destinations and their WADT and estimated daily tons. It is observed that the main O-D trips takes 

place within Orange Walk District, between Shipyard and Orange Walk Town (21% and 23% of 

all trips for2025 and 2035 respectively). Also, note the growing impact of the Santander Sugar 

Corporation sugar production and transport in the OD pattern. The 25 main pairs shown represent 

59% of the total demand for this vehicle group. 

Full Trailer: 

The following Figures depict the main origin and destinations of the Full Trailer group. The Tables 

below list the same information, identifying the main origins and destinations and their WADT and 

estimated daily tons. It is observed that the main O-D trips take place within Orange District (Yo 

Creek/San Lorenzo- Shipyard with 19% and 20% of the total in 2025 and 2035 and San Estevan-Shipyard 

with 14% and 15% of the total in 2025 and 2035) and between Orange Walk and Belize District with 15% 

and 16% of the total in 2025 and 2035. The 10 main pairs shown represent 86% and 88% of the 

total demand in 2025 and 2035 for this vehicle group. 

Summary of Freight Vehicles: 

The following Tables summarize the average daily truck trips and transported tons forecasts for 

2025 and 2035. 




Main O-D Semi Trailer, Belize 2025 

Main O-D – Freight Semi Trailer, Belize- 2025 






Main O-D – Freight Semi Trailer, Belize- 2035 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destinati 

on 



Destination 

Reference 

Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 70 




69 77 San Pedro Columbia 1 Punta Gorda Town 133 1,000 4% 


30 39 Burrell Boom Belize City 117 880 3% 








38 39 

La 

Democracia/Churchyard 

% 

Total 






42 50 

42 230 


Run 


Run 


1 Belmopan 54 404 1% 

Guatemala City 52 393 1% 


Road 

52 389 1% 






Main O-D Pairs 2,250 16,878 60% 

Rest O-D Pairs 1,478 11,084 40% 

Total 3,728 27,962 100% 

70 

The average of tons considering Round trip weight is 7.5 Tons. 




Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destination 




Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 71 




69 77 San Pedro Columbia 1 Punta Gorda Town 183 1,376 4% 



39 50 Belize City 1 Belmopan 144 1,077 3% 







38 39 

La 

Democracia/Churchyard 

% 

Total 






42 50 

42 230 


Run 


Run 


1 Belmopan 74 557 1% 

Guatemala City 72 541 1% 


Road 

71 535 1% 






Main O-D Pairs 3,098 23,238 60% 

Rest O-D Pairs 2,035 15,261 40% 

Total 5,133 38,499 100% 

71 

The average of tons considering Round trip weight is 7.5 Tons. 




Main O-D Trailer, Belize 2025 

Main O-D – Freight Trailer (Santander Impact), Belize- 2025 






Main O-D – Freight Trailer (Santander Impact), , Belize- 2035 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destinat 

ion 




Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 72 

% 

Total 
















32 42 Ladyville 

42 50 


Run 


Run 

10 142 1% 

1 Belmopan 10 138 1% 





Community 

8 110 1% 







Main O-D Pairs 520 7,275 59% 

Rest O-D Pairs 363 5,081 41% 

Total 883 12,357 100% 

72 

The average of tons considering Round trip weight is 14 Tons 




Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destinat 

ion 




Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 73 

% 

Total 
















32 42 Ladyville 

42 50 


Run 


Run 

14 196 1% 

1 Belmopan 14 190 1% 





Community 

11 151 1% 






Main O-D Pairs 759 10,627 59% 

Rest O-D Pairs 521 7,301 41% 


Total 1,281 17,928 100% 

73 





Main O-D Full Trailer, Belize 2025 

Main O-D – Freight Full Trailer, Belize - 2025 






Main O-D – Freight Full Trailer, Belize - 2035 





Zone 

Origin 

Zone 

Destinati 

on 

19 20 

21 32 


Yo Creek/San 

Lorenzo 

1 Orange Walk 

Town 



Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 74 

% 

Total 

Shipyard 14 230 19% 

Ladyville 11 183 15% 


21 86 

21 39 

1 Orange Walk 

Town 

1 Orange Walk 

Town 


Port of Belize 5 90 8% 



Community 

5 82 7% 


35 50 

Hattieville/Gracie 

Rock 




Main O-D Pairs 61 1,032 86% 



Total 70 1,196 100% 

74 





Zone 

Orign 

Zone 

Destinati 

on 

19 20 



Yo Creek/San 

Lorenzo 

Destination 

Reference 

Total 

Trips 

Average 

estimate 

Tons 75 

% 

Total 

Shipyard 22 374 20% 

21 32 1 Orange Walk Town Ladyville 18 298 16% 






Community 

7 113 6% 


35 50 

Hattieville/Gracie 

Rock 




Main O-D Pairs 95 1,614 88% 


Total 108 1,833 100% 

Summary Trips Trucks 2025 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trucks 

Medium Term 2025 



Trailer 883 10,901 

Full Trailer 70 1,196 

4,681 40,058 


Summary Trips Trucks 2035 

Vehicle 

Group 

Trucks 

Long Term 2035 



Trailer 1,281 15,660 

Full Trailer 108 1,833 

6,522 55,992 


75 





2.2.5 Medium and long-term external trade products origin-destination and desired lines 

Forecast was made for relevant logistic subsystems 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Sugar production considering BSI and SSC Production 

Banana 

Citrus Products 

Crude Oil 

Oil refined products 

As reported in Base Line Report, these products share the 46 % of Belize´s external trade. 

Forecast were concentrated in medium term. When available, industry projections were used. For 

the long term the growth rates were slowed down to be equal or less than GDP in 2035 

BSI forecast 

In 2012 ASR group acquires majority of Belize Sugar Industries. From 2013 to 2015 the CAGR is 

11 % and according to interviews the goal of the Board of Directors is to double the production of 

2013 in 2025. 

The forecast is based on the Board of Directors objective to double the production of 2012 in 2022 

for all their products. The Consultant estimated the forecast based on SIB statistics and the goal 

established by the company for 2022 as shown below. 

BSI Sugar + Molasses Exports (2012-2023) 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017, Based on SIB and stakeholder interview 

SSC 

Since official data does not reflect SSC production, growth rates were obtained from company 

projections to 2025 as shown in Figure below. 




SSC production forecast 

200,000 

180,000 

160,000 

140,000 

Metric Tons 

120,000 

100,000 

80,000 

60,000 

40,000 

20,000 

- 

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 

Year 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017, Based on stakeholder interview 

Banana 

The CAGR in the 2006-2015 was 3.47 % while GDP had 2.44 % in the same period. 

Banana forecast was based on historical Export-GDP elasticity. The Table below Error! 

Reference source not found. shows GDP and Banana exports growth rate 

GDP & Banana exports growth rates 2007-2015 period 

40% 

30% 

Annual Growth rate 

20% 

10% 

0% 

-10% 

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

-20% 

Banana 

Year 

GDP 

Source: Egis - Transconsult, 2017, Based on SIB 

The Table shows the CAGR of Banana and GDP for 2017-2015 and the elasticity used for 

forecast 

Cumulated Annual Growth Rate (2007-2015) 

CAGR (2007-2015) 

Rate/elasticity 

Banana 3.5% 

GDP 2.4% 

elasticity to GDP 1.42 






Citrus Products historical performance were erratic in the recent past as shown below. 

GDP & Banana export growth rates 2007-2015 period 

30% 

20% 

Annual Growth Rate 

10% 

0% 

-10% 

-20% 

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

-30% 

-40% 

Year 



Several econometric models were tested with no significant results. The consultant assumed an 

elasticity of .8 to GDP for this category 

Crude Oil 

According with “Comparative analysis of port operations in Belize, IDB, 2017” crude oil exports 

cease in some year before 2025. This trend was confirmed by BNE personal during the interview. 

Based in previous, the consultant does not consider crude oil exports for medium and long-term 

scenarios. 

Oil Refined Products 

Oil refined products growth rates were highly elastic to the GDP in the 2012-2015 period, breaking 

with an erratic tendency in the previous years. The Figure below shows growth rates for Oil 

Refined Products 

GDP & Oil Refined Products growth rates 2007-2015 period 

40% 

30% 

Annual growth rate 

20% 

10% 

0% 

-10% 

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

-20% 

Fuel 

Year 

GDP 





According with interview with PUMA personnel, an elasticity of 1 to GDP should be used for 

forecasting this product, although it does not conform to historic trend where, on average, fuel 

increases at a higher proportion than GDP. The Consultant proposes to use an elasticity of 1.1. 

Growth Rates Summary 

The Table below shows the CAGR proposed for medium and long-term scenarios per commodity 

Desire lines 

CAGR per commodity. Medium and long-term scenario 

Company Commodity 2017-2025 2017-2035 

BSI Sugar and molasses 6% 5% 

Santander Sugar 22% 11% 

BGA Banana 3% 3% 

CPBL Citrus Products 2% 2% 

BNE Crude oil 0% 0% 

Puma Oil Refined Products 2% 3% 

GDP 2% 3% 


The cargo matrix constructed in baseline were forecasted for medium and long-term scenario. 

For commodities mentioned above, corresponding growth rates were used. GDP growth rate was 

used for the rest of commodities. 




Desire lines for major export products 2025 and 2035 (tons) 




2.2.6 Medium and long-term road assignment on base case road network and level of 

service 

The following sections describe the modelled demand assignments to the road network and 

resulting service levels for the medium term (2025) and long term (2035). 

7.3.3.2.1 Medium Term Analysis (2025) 

Assignment 2025 

The Figures below shows Medium Term Primary Highway Network (2025) Assignment and the 

below Table shows de Light and Heavy vehicles percentages on the Main Road. 

Primary Highway Private Road Vehicle Base Network 2025 Assignment 

Belize - 2025 – Cars Improved Base Network Assignment 

1 

9 

5 

6 

3 

7 

8 

4 

ID Road 


Note: See highway numbering in Table 3-53. 





As shown in the figure, light vehicles major volume concentrates in the George Price Highway 

between Belize City and the border with Guatemala, and in the Philip SW Goldson Highway from 

Belize City to the Airport and Ladyville. The rest of the Philip SW Goldson Highway concentrates 

as significant volume of vehicles, lower than George Price, but higher than the other highways. 

The lowest volume is in the Southern Highway, between Independence and the intersection with 

Jalacte Road. 

Primary Highway Freight Improved Base Network 2025 Assignment 

Belize - 2025 – Freight Improved Base Network Assignment 

1 

9 

5 

6 

3 

7 

8 

4 

ID Road 




On the other hand, the highest volume of freight vehicles is within the Philip SW Goldson Highway 

between Belize City and the border with Mexico, and the George Price Highway, form Belize City 

to Belmopan and San Ignacio. This volume goes lower from San Ignacio, to the border with 

Guatemala. 

And the impact of freight trucks considering the Santander Scenario on the Costal Road. 




The Table below shows de Light and Heavy vehicles percentages on the Main Road. 

Id 

Primary Highway Improved Base Network 2025 Assignment 

Road Project (Main) 

2025 Improved Base Porcentage 

Length 

(Km) 

Speed 

(Km/h) 

Number 

of Lanes 

Light Heavy 

1 Corozal Bypass 18.3 19.18 2 27% 73% 

3 Coastal Highway 58.4 74.54 2 61% 39% 

4 Road to Jalacte 34.8 76.87 2 66% 34% 

5 Hattieville Boom Phillip S.W. Goldson Highway 19.9 74.61 2 85% 15% 

6 George Price Highway 129 71.30 2 86% 14% 

7 Hummingbird Highway 88 91.95 2 94% 6% 

8 Southern Highway 157 99.54 2 80% 20% 

9 Phillip S.W. Goldson Highway 148 98.13 2 86% 14% 


As shown in the table, the split of vehicle type remains almost as the baseline with slightly changes 

only for Costal Highway, Road to Jalacte and George Price Highway. Nevertheless, the speed 

goes down for all the roads in an average of 5 Km/h going with differences from 2 km/h to 10 

km/h. 

Level of Service (LOS) 2025 

The Primary Highway Network for 2025. As shown in the figure, the increase of volume and the 

capacity of the roads lowers the conditions of the interaction between the supply and demand. 

George Price Highway has level of service C, and the road to Belize City to Ladyville present level 

B. The Southern Highway road change to level C. 




Medium Term Proposed Projects (2025) Level of Service (LOS) 

Belize Improved Base - 2025 – Level of Service 

1 

9 

5 

6 

3 

7 

8 

4 

ID Road Project (Main) 





Long Term Analysis (2035) 

Assignment 2035 

The Figure below shows the Long Term Primary Highway Network (2035) Assignment and the 

following Figure shows de Light and Heavy vehicles percentages on the Principal Network. 

Primary Highway Private Road Vehicle Base Network 2035 Assignment 

Belize –Improved Base 2035 – Cars Network Assignment 

1 

9 

5 

6 

3 

7 

8 

4 

ID Road 




As shown in the figure, light vehicles major volume concentrates in the George Price Highway 

between Belize City and the border with Guatemala, and in the Philip SW Goldson Highway from 

Belize City to the Airport and Ladyville. The rest of the Philip SW Goldson Highway concentrates 

as significant volume of vehicles, lower than George Price, but higher than the other highways. 

The lowest volume is in the Southern Highway, between Independence and the intersection with 

Jalacte Road 




Primary Highway Freight Improved Base Network 2035 Assignment 

Belize Improved Base- 2035 – Freight Network Assignment 

1 

9 

5 

6 

3 

7 

8 

4 

ID Road 




On the other hand, the highest volume of freight vehicles is within the Philip SW Goldson Highway 

between Belize City and the border with Mexico, and the George Price Highway, form Belize City 

to Guatemala border. There is a representative volume from Belmopan to Dangriga that 

represents the impact of freight trucks considering the Santander scenario 2035 through the 

Costal Highway. 




The next table shows de Light and Heavy vehicles percentages on the Principal Network. 

Id 

Road Project (Main) 

Long Term (2035) Assignment 

2035 Improved Base Porcentage 

Length 

(Km) 

Speed 

(Km/h) 

Number 

of Lanes 

Light Heavy 

1 Corozal Bypass 18.3 19.18 2 23% 77% 

3 Coastal Highway 58.4 69.40 2 60% 40% 

4 Road to Jalacte 34.8 76.87 2 66% 34% 

5 Hattieville Boom Phillip S.W. Goldson Highway 19.9 69.48 2 85% 15% 

6 George Price Highway 129 49.35 2 86% 14% 

7 Hummingbird Highway 88 86.00 2 94% 6% 

8 Southern Highway 157 85.96 2 80% 20% 

9 Phillip S.W. Goldson Highway 148 93.09 2 85% 15% 


Level of Services (LOS) 2035 

With the Primary Highway Improved Base Network 2035 Assignment, a level of service D is 

observed at the Southern Highway. 

The Hummingbird Highway maintain level B. And the Costal Road presents on a stretch near 

Gates Point level B. 




Long Term Analysis (2035) - Level of Service (LOS) 

Belize Improved Base- 2035 – Level of Service 

1 

9 

5 

6 

3 

7 

8 

4 

ID Road Project (Main) 






3 TOURISM PASSENGER FORECASTS 

3.1 Tourism Forecast – National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP) 

In 2011, the Government of Belize developed the NSTMP which presents a long-term strategic 

vision of the tourism sector. 

Very briefly, the NSTMP considers the boosters of the country's tourism development to be the 

following: 

6. Strengthen the power of attraction of cruise visitors 

7. Turn cruise visitors into overnight tourists 

8. Expand the Average Length of Stay (ALOS) of overnight visitors (from 8.3 days in 

2008 up to 10.6 in 2030) 

9. Maintain and strengthen the internal market (local visitors) 

10. Attract more European and Mexican visitors and decrease dependence of the 

American market 

The NSTMP proposes specific actions to develop the tourism potential of the seven touristic 

regions according to their current assets and under a framework of respect for natural resources. 

Tourism Destination Groupings (NSTMP) 





The growth hypotheses of the NSTMP pose a change in the inner dynamic of the country i.e. 

some switches in the tourists’ distribution are expected 76 . 

The approach in Central Coast Belize is to focus on urban renovation of the Central Historic 

District neighbourhood and foster tourism attractors in the city such as the Museum of Belize, the 

open-air market, and the For George Street Village. Expectations are to maintain the current 

percentage of visitors (15% of total visitors in the country). 

Northern Belize is considered to slightly increase its power of attraction (from 10% in 2008 to 11% 

in 2030) thanks to a moderate growth in Orange Walk and Corozal whose role is to be a base 

camp area to visit surrounding anthropological sites (Lamanai and Cerro Maya for instance). 

Moreover, based on the NSTPM, the free trade zone represents, and will remain, an important 

tourists’ attractor in the region. 

The greater tourism growth is estimated in the South-Eastern Coast (14% of total visitors in 2008 

up to 30% in 2030) as most of the new future developments are expected in this area, specifically 

around existing settlements in the coastline close to the airport and in the north from Riversdale. 

Tourism Overnight Distribution per Destination 

Region 2008 2030 

Belize Reef 3% 2% 

Northern Belize 10% 11% 

South Eastern Coast Belize 14% 30% 

Central Coast Belize 15% 15% 

Northern Islands 32% 21% 

Southern Belize 2% 4% 

Western Belize 24% 17% 

National 100% 100% 


For 2030, Southern Belize would double its power of attraction, capturing 4% of the total number 

of visitors in the country. The objectives for this zone are i) to promote nautical tourism in Punta 

Gorda and the coastline and ii) create new tourism attractions around the agriculture-tourism and 

rural tourism using the cacao plantations. 

On the other hand, Western Belize (called the “Adventure Capital of Belize") would lose relative 

importance in attracting tourists. This implies that the number of tourists will be higher, but the 

percentage of attraction at the national level would be smaller (24% in 2008 to 17% in 2030). A 

moderate tourism growth is defined in Benque Viejo and San Ignacio based on the attractiveness 

of the Chiquibul Caves. 

The NSTMP propounds to release the pressure in the Northern Islands (San Pedro and Caye 

Caulker) which would no longer be the main destination in the country, but the second (behind 

the south-eastern coast). The idea is to constraint the development and consolidate and improve 

the current infrastructure. 

76 

Up to 2015, no changes in the overnight distribution have been identified. The scheme for 2008 presented in the 

NSTMP has mainly remained the same. 




Finally, for the Belize Reef, priority is given to preserve all marine habitats, promote one-day visits 

and only allow improvements and small enlargements for existing facilities. The tourist percentage 

of attraction in 2030 is expected to decrease 1% and reach 2% in 2030. 

Based on these growth and switch expectations 77 , the NSTMP estimates the future number of 

overnight and cruise visitors 78 . Overnight tourists are expected to growth 3.8% every year 

whereas for cruises the calculated annual growth rate is 3.7%. 

Overnight Visitors 

When comparing the overnight visitors forecast of the NSTMP versus the real registered visitors 

(Belize Travel and Tourism Statistics Digest 2015 and BTB), the difference for 2009 is 9%. The 

NSTMP calculated a growth of 3.8% 79 , and in fact a decrease of 5.2% was registered. 

Nevertheless, this difference is later compensated since the real Compound Annual Growth Rate 

(CAGR) for 2008-2016 is 5.8% (2% higher than the 3.8% forecasted). Therefore, the number of 

visitors estimated in the NSTMP for 2016 is smaller than the official records. 

For the purposes of the CNTMP, an adjusted series is estimated using the registered number of 

overnight visitors up to 2016 and adding the growth rate originally estimated in the NSTMP. 

Year 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Overnight Tourists Forecast (NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Arrivals 2 

Growth Rate 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

2008 245,000 245,007 245,007 

2009 254,298 3.8% 232,249 -5.2% 232,249 -5.2% 

2010 263,950 3.8% 241,919 4.2% 241,919 4.2% 

2011 273,968 3.8% 250,263 3.4% 250,263 3.4% 

2012 284,365 3.8% 277,135 10.7% 277,135 10.7% 

2013 295,158 3.8% 294,177 6.1% 294,177 6.1% 

2014 306,360 3.8% 321,220 9.2% 321,220 9.2% 

2015 317,987 3.8% 341,161 6.2% 341,161 6.2% 

2016 330,056 3.8% 385,583 13.0% 385,583 13.0% 

2017 342,582 3.8% - - 400,217 3.8% 

2018 355,584 3.8% - - 415,406 3.8% 

2019 369,080 3.8% - - 431,172 3.8% 

2020 383,088 3.8% - - 447,537 3.8% 

2021 397,627 3.8% - - 464,522 3.8% 

2022 412,718 3.8% - - 482,152 3.8% 

2023 428,382 3.8% - - 500,451 3.8% 

2024 444,640 3.8% - - 519,445 3.8% 

2025 461,516 3.8% - - 539,159 3.8% 

2026 479,032 3.8% - - 559,622 3.8% 

2027 497,212 3.8% - - 580,861 3.8% 

2028 516,083 3.8% - - 602,906 3.8% 

2029 535,670 3.8% - - 625,788 3.8% 

2030 1 556,000 3.8% - - 649,539 3.8% 

2031 577,102 3.8% - - 674,191 3.8% 

2032 599,005 3.8% - - 699,778 3.8% 

77 

The NSTMP forecasts visitors from 2009 up to 2030. The most up-to-date data was for 2008. 

78 

These figures correspond to the data presented in the NSTMP. They are therefore official estimates. 

79 

NSTMP presents mainly qualitative reasons for such a growth expectation. No explanation about the numerical 

procedure of estimation was found. 




Year 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Arrivals 2 

Growth Rate 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

2033 621,739 3.8% - - 726,337 3.8% 

2034 645,335 3.8% - - 753,904 3.8% 

2035 669,828 3.8% - - 782,517 3.8% 

CAGR 2008 

- 2016 

3.8% 5.8% 5.8% 

CAGR 2016 

- 2035 

3.8% - 3.8% 




and BTB 2016 

In line with the adjusted series of the NSTMP, the forecasted number of overnight visitors for each 

region is the following. 

Overnight Tourists Forecast per destination (NSTMP - adjusted) 

Region 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

2016 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 1 

ALOS 

2016 2 

Total 

Overnights 

2016 

Adjusted 

Overnight 

Tourists 

2035 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 3 

ALOS 

2035 4 

Total 

Overnights 

2035 

CAGR 

Total 

Overnights 

2016 - 

2035 

Belize Reef 11,567 

76,114 15,650 

165,737 4.2% 

Northern Belize 38,558 253,714 86,077 911,554 7.0% 

South Eastern Coast 

Belize 

53,982 355,199 234,755 2,486,055 10.8% 

Central Coast Belize 57,837 6.58 380,570 117,377 10.59 1,243,028 6.4% 

Northern Islands 123,387 811,884 164,328 1,740,239 4.1% 

Southern Belize 7,712 50,743 31,301 331,474 10.4% 

Western Belize 92,540 608,913 133,028 1,408,765 4.5% 

National 385,583 2,537,136 782,517 8,286,851 6.4% 

1 

The total number of overnight visitors corresponds to the official data presented in the Belize Travel and Tourism 

Statistics Digest. The distribution per destination is the same as the one presented in the NSTMP for 2008 as no 

updated information is available 

2 

Equal to ALOS 2015 based on official records 

3 

Distribution per destination 2047 equal to that estimated in the NSTMP for 2030 

4 

ALOS 2047 equal to that estimated in the NSTMP for 2030 

Source: Egis–Transconsult, 2017 

The south of the country is expected to have the greatest tourism growth (above 7% per year). 

The attraction of tourists in the northern region is calculated to increase 5.7% per year. The 

Central Coast would have a growth rate equal to the national level (5.4%) whereas the west, the 

northern islands and the Belize Reef would grow around 4% each year. 




Cruise Visitors 

The comparison of cruise visitors forecasted in the NSTMP and the official records reached similar 

conclusions to the overnight tourists. The NSTMP forecasted a linear growth rate of 3.7% up to 

2030. Conversely, the official records show a CAGR of 5.2% between 2009 and 2016 80 . Hence, 

the forecast for 2016 in the NSTMP was below the real number of cruise visitors. 

Again, an adjusted series was calculated based on the factual data up to 2016 and replicating the 

growth rate estimated in the NSTMP. 

Year 

Cruise 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Cruise Tourists Forecast (NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

Cruise 

Tourists 

Arrivals 2 

Growth Rate 

Adjusted 

Cruise 

Tourists 

Forecast 

(NSTMP) 

Growth Rate 

2009 705,000 - 705,219 0.0% 705,219 - 

2010 730,944 3.7% 764,628 8.4% 764,628 8.4% 

2011 757,843 3.7% 727,878 -4.8% 727,878 -4.8% 

2012 785,731 3.7% 640,734 -12.0% 640,734 -12.0% 

2013 814,646 3.7% 677,350 5.7% 677,350 5.7% 

2014 844,625 3.7% 968,131 42.9% 968,131 42.9% 

2015 875,707 3.7% 957,975 -1.0% 957,975 -1.0% 

2016 907,933 3.7% 1,005,394 4.9% 1,005,394 4.9% 

2017 941,345 3.7% - - 1,042,392 3.7% 

2018 975,987 3.7% - - 1,080,753 3.7% 

2019 1,011,903 3.7% - - 1,120,524 3.7% 

2020 1,049,141 3.7% - - 1,161,760 3.7% 

2021 1,087,750 3.7% - - 1,204,512 3.7% 

2022 1,127,779 3.7% - - 1,248,838 3.7% 

2023 1,169,281 3.7% - - 1,294,796 3.7% 

2024 1,212,311 3.7% - - 1,342,444 3.7% 

2025 1,256,924 3.7% - - 1,391,846 3.7% 

2026 1,303,179 3.7% - - 1,443,066 3.7% 

2027 1,351,136 3.7% - - 1,496,171 3.7% 

2028 1,400,857 3.7% - - 1,551,230 3.7% 

2029 1,452,409 3.7% - - 1,608,315 3.7% 

2030 1 1,505,857 3.7% - - 1,667,501 3.7% 

2031 1,561,273 3.7% - - 1,728,865 3.7% 

2032 1,618,728 3.7% - - 1,792,487 3.7% 

2033 1,678,297 3.7% - - 1,858,451 3.7% 

2034 1,740,058 3.7% - - 1,926,842 3.7% 

2035 1,804,093 3.7% - - 1,997,750 3.7% 

CAGR 2009 

- 2016 

3.7% 5.2% 5.2% 

CAGR 2016 

- 2035 

3.7% - 3.7% 


and BTB 2016 



80 

Important fluctuations in historical data should be noted. 




3.2 Conclusions 

It is undeniable that tourism is one of the pillars of Belize´s development. Support this sector is a 

sound decision. Its growth should not be left to inertia and previous dynamic. On the contrary, 

development strategies should be implemented. In this sense, the NSTMP sets the principles to 

strengthen tourism. 

The strong linkage between tourism, transport and development means improvements in the 

transportation system (Infrastructure and operation) will boost the attractiveness of the country 

and in the long run contribute to boom the economy based on tourism services. 

4 PORTS FORECASTS 

The preparation of port forecasts has been done by studying the growth of the precedent years 

and considering the potential production increases of some products. Particularly for exports, it 

has been used as input the data in the Technical Note IDB-TN-1236 Comparative analysis of port 

operations in Belize- January 2017 as it was suggested at the beginning of the study. 

The main assumptions taken for this section are: 

n 

For imports: 

Containers have been forecasted using their elasticity to GDP 

n Oil imports are assumed to grow with GDP with an elasticity factor equal to 1,1 

n General cargo and cement for big creek as well as dry bulk, break-bulk and other noncontainerized 

cargo for Belize City Port are assumed to grow with GDP (elasticity 

factor equal to 1) 

n For Belize City Port, detailed statistics are not available; not even a distinction between 

imports and exports; the traffic reported by the port is very different to the one 

appearing in the customs statistics. Customs statistics for exports seem quite more 

reliable but for imports there are consistency problems between the data reported by 

both entities. Due to this, we preferred using the same assumptions for estimating 

exports and imports as done in the report of the IDB “Comparative analysis of port 

operations in Belize”. 

n It has been assumed that oil products will continue to be imported by Belize City Port; 

if the monopoly is abolished, a part of this traffic will shift to Big Creek 

n For the business as usual scenario, the potential increase of transshipment goods 

thanks to the reduction of the existing tax on those cargo has not been considered but 

if historical data on this is obtained it will be added to the alternative scenarios. (Also, 

see the analysis for potential port hinterland expansion in Section 2.5.4.) 

n For the business as usual scenario, the impact of the opening of Jalacte border ports 

has not been considered 

For exports: 

n 

n 

The forecasted volumes and most of the assumptions for the sharing of the exports by 

port for the business as usual scenario have been taken from the IDB Report 

"Comparative analysis of port operation in Belize "; this report present an analysis by 

type of commodity. No investments have been considered have been considered here 

and the distribution between ports will change for each alternative scenario depending 

of the infrastructure projects proposed, especially for bulk. 

It is proposed that sugar exports volumes are shared 50/50 in the long term by both 

ports considering that most of the volumes from Santander will go to Big Creek; this is 

an assumption for business as usual (do-minimum) scenario. 




4.1 Main export products and distribution by ports 

This section has used to analysis of commodities done in the IDB report “Comparative analysis 

of port operations in Belize” that was given to the Consultant as input at the beginning of the 

study. The main assumptions made are the following: 

n Sugar: for the period 2015-30 strong output growth due to two new mills, mainly due 

to to the increase of production of Santander Group. From 2030 trend annual growth 

rate of 1.5% as yields improve and the agricultural frontier is extended. There are still 

uncertainties about the capacity of Santander Group to achieve a similar production 

to BSI. Due to this, a long-term production of more than 250 000 tons as proposed in 

the IDB report could be considered optimistic. 

n Molasses: Increases at the same rate as sugar. 

n Banana: for the period 2015-20 stabilization around 130 000 tons; from 2020 trend 

annual growth rate of 1.5%. 

n Citrus Products: for the period 2015-20 rebound from recent setbacks; from 2020, 

trend annual growth rate of 1.7%. 

n Crude Oil Products: Production ceases by 2025. 

n Corn and beans: Trend annual growth rate of 2.5%. 

Uncertainties exist for some of these products. In the next years the agreement between EU and 

Belize that lets Belize to export with low custom duties to Europe will finalise. This could have an 

impact on the Belizean exports as its products could become less competitive. 

Key export products forecasts (all ports, in tons) 

2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Sugar 125 400 135 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 323 200 

Molasses 15 300 15 300 24 500 30 600 36 700 39 500 

Bananas 124 300 125 000 130 000 140 000 150 900 162 500 

Citrus 94 000 98 700 120 000 130 700 142 300 155 000 

Other products 25 000 25 500 28 200 31 800 35 900 40 600 

Oil 58 300 46 640 20 000 0 0 0 

Total key exports 442 300 446 140 522 700 583 100 665 800 720 800 



The following table presents the distribution of exports by ports for the business as usual scenario. 

No investment projects or new developments are considered at this stage. For sugar, production 

from BSI is assumed to continue using mostly barges. It is assumed that Santander Group will 

use Big Creek as its port of export of all its sugar production (SSC has signed an agreement with 

Port of Big Creek a ten-year agreement). This distribution assumes, as well, a balance between 

Port of Belize and Big Creek for citrus and other products exports in the long term. 




Key export products: breakdown by ports (in tons) 

Year 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Share of exports: Belize 

City 

Sugar: 92% to 2016; 

diminishing to 50% by 2020. 125 400 124 200 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 601 

Molasses: 100% to 2016; 

diminishing to 50% by 2020. 15 300 15 300 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 770 

Bananas: 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Citrus: 90% to 2016, falling to 

50% by 2020. 84 600 88 830 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 


falling to 50% by 2035 24 000 22 950 22 560 22 260 21 540 20 300 

Oil: 0% 0 0 0 0 0 

Total Port of Belize City key 

exports 249 300 251 280 194 810 227 910 261 040 279 171 

Share of exports: Big Creek 

Sugar: 0% to 2015, increase 

in share to 50% by 2020. 0 10 800 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 600 

Molasses: same trend as 

sugar 0 0 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 750 

Bananas: 100% 124 300 125 000 130 000 140 000 150 900 162 500 

Citrus: 10%; rising to 50% by 

2020 9 400 9 870 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 


rising to 50% by 2050 1 000 2 550 5 640 9 540 14 360 20 300 

Oil: 100% 58 300 46 640 20 000 0 0 0 

Total Port of Big Creek key 

exports 193 000 194 860 327 890 355 190 404 760 441 650 



These results are re-grouped together with the import forecasts for each port in the two following 

sections. 

4.2 Belize City Port forecasts 

As the distribution of exports has already been presented, this section will detail the methodology 

used for container and oil products traffic and will include the consolidated forecasts for Belize 

City Port. 

It is important to precise that there are inconsistencies between the data provided by BP Ltd and 

the customs data on tons, the values being quite different. Moreover, the data provided for the 

Port of Belize City was not disaggregated enough, and the Consultant had to make strong 

assumptions, in particular to container traffic, that as we mention in the following section, could 

be adapted if more precise data is received. 




4.2.1 Container 

The following table presents the evolution of container traffic since 2009 for both exports and 

imports. Exports (loaded containers) represent roughly 15% of the non-empty container traffic 

(TEU), and 25% in tons.. Regarding the traffic trend, it is observed that the growth of container 

traffic has been high, with elasticity factors of almost 3 in comparison to GDP. 

Historical data of container traffic 

Container traffic versus GDP - historical data 

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

GDP growth 2.37 % 2.45 % 2.50 % 2.60 % 2.62 % 2.72 % 2.80 % 

CAGR Period GDP 2.6% 

GDP 100.00 102.45 105.01 107.74 110.56 113.57 116.75 

Tons (cont.) 163 591 172 829 198 490 215 719 233 387 255 173 255 021 

Growth tons 5.6% 14.8% 8.7% 8.2% 9.3% -0.1% 

CAGR Period tons 7.7% 

TEU 31 344 31 917 34 776 36 978 40 978 43 593 48 141 

Growth TEU 1.8% 9.0% 6.3% 10.8% 6.4% 10.4% 

CAGR Period TEU 7.4% 

Source: GDP data from IMF - container traffic from BP Ltd 

website 

Elasticity Tons growth vs 


Elasticity TEU growth vs 


Proposed elasticity factors for container growth 

Proposed elasticity factors container traffic growth versus GDP growth 

2009-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 

Tons growth vs GDP 

growth 2.94 2.00 1.50 1.20 1.10 

TEU growth vs GDP 

growth 2.84 2.00 1.50 1.20 1.10 

Source: proposed by the Consultant 

For this section of the forecasts we found contradictory ideas between the IDB report given as 

input for our study and some recent statements from the representative of BP Ltd during the 

stakeholder’s meetings. In the IDB report all or almost all container traffic has been considered 

as imports whereas BP Ltd has recently stated that part of the container traffic relates to exports 

and that the high growth rate is directly linked to exports. Moreover, we were informed that if a 

bulk facility was built in Port of Belize City the container traffic could drop as some exports could 

shift from container to bulk. 

At this stage, we have preferred to continue with the assumption of the IDB report. If we receive 

quantitative data from BP Ltd clarifying this issue the forecasts will be updated consequently. 

Based on the elasticity factor proposed above container traffic has been forecasted in the 







2016 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 

tons 249 793 tons 299 996 tons 347 778 tons 391 563 tons 436 572 tons 

TEU 47 154 TEU 56 631 TEU 65 651 TEU 73 917 TEU 82 413 TEU 


4.2.2 Oil products 

For oil products imports official data from customs has been used to study the growth trends. Oil 

traffic shows very erratic variations from one year to another but when the period 2006-2015 is 

considered, the CAGR is 3.78%. 

The table below shows the difficulties to establish a direct relation between GDP and oil imports. 

Oil imports 

versus 

GDP 

GDP constant 

price 

GDP growth 

in % 

Historical data on oil imports and relation to GDP 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

2.255 2.280 2.353 2.372 2.451 2.502 2.596 2.615 2.722 2.801 

4.58 % 1.10 % 3.23 % 0.80 % 3.32 % 2.10 % 3.74 % 0.73 % 4.10 % 2.88 % 

CAGR GDP 2.44% 

Tons 122 261 114 500 95 536 93 474 99 955 89 087 90 300 107 977 129 182 170 745 

CAGR tons 3.78% 

Source: GDP IMF - Oil 

imports Elasticity Tons growth vs GDP growth 1.55 

Proposed elasticity oil volume growth 

versus GDP growth 1.1 

The elasticity found with the historical data seems too erratic and unreliable as it is highly 

influenced by the last value from 2015 when the tons increased by over 30%. We have preferred 

considering a more conservative elasticity of 1.1 which has been used in the following table: 

Oil imports forecasts 

Oil imports 

forecasts 

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Scenario Trend: 

GDP growth -1.03 % 2.34 % 2.00 % 2.00 % 2.00 % 

Oil volume growth -1.13 % 2.58 % 2.20 % 2.20 % 2.20 % 

Tons 168 820 173 170 176 980 180 873 184 852 





4.2.3 Total 

The following table presents total traffic forecasts for Belize City. Bulk import data was not detailed 

enough to determine a specific trend, so its growth has been linked GDP. 

Port of Belize City traffic forecasts (2015-2035) 

2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Imports 681 260 671 488 750 581 831 046 910 604 994 789 

containerized cargo 

- in tons 255 021 249 793 299 996 347 778 391 563 436 572 

- in TEU 48 141 47 154 56 631 65 651 73 917 82 413 

petroleum products 170 745 168 820 173 170 176 980 180 873 184 852 

dry bulk, breakbulk cargo 

& other non-containerized 

cargo 255 494 252 876 277 415 306 289 338 167 373 364 

Exports 249 300 251 280 194 810 227 910 261 040 279 171 

- Sugar 125 400 124 200 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 601 

- Molasses 15 300 15 300 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 770 

- Citrus 84 600 88 830 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 

- Other 24 000 22 950 22 560 22 260 21 540 20 300 

Source: For imports: derived by the Consultant using his own assumptions - For exports: Comparative analysis of 

port operation in Belize – Technical Note n°IDB-TN1236 –January 2017 

4.3 Big Creek Port forecasts 

The last data available for Big Creek Port was from 2015. The assumptions for exports have 

already been presented in precedent sections. 

It is noted tough that Big Creek Port representatives informed that they were trying to re-group 

some grain producers in the area nearby the port to cooperate with them to start exporting the 

product. As this is very preliminary and no real figures of export targets have been developed this 

potential traffic has not been considered in the forecasts. 

For imports, cardboards and fertilizers growth rates have been related to exports growth rates. 

The other products grow in parallel to GDP. 




Big Creek Port traffic forecasts (2015-2035) 

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 

TOTAL 380 339 316 363 344 074 342 336 304 739 507 125 559 243 635 142 693 894 

Import 118 840 105 320 122 165 149 481 109 879 179 235 204 053 230 382 252 244 

- General cargo 16 088 17 397 16 273 24 228 20 000 21 941 24 224 26 746 29 529 

- Cardboards / boxes 58 279 33 304 56 380 38 275 42 168 87 593 101 050 115 152 125 647 

- Cement 28 397 41 060 26 653 70 902 30 000 32 911 36 337 40 119 44 294 

- Fertilizer 16 076 12 747 18 898 16 076 17 711 36 790 42 442 48 365 52 773 

- Other 0 812 3 961 0 

Export 261 499 211 043 221 909 192 855 194 860 327 890 355 190 404 760 441 650 

- Sugar 10 800 100 000 125 000 150 000 161 600 

- Molasses 0 12 250 15 300 18 350 19 750 

- Bananas 124 702 117 365 130 653 124 275 125 000 130 000 140 000 150 900 162 500 

- Citrus (all) 7 441 5 729 2 840 9 232 9 870 60 000 65 350 71 150 77 500 

- Other 785 533 3 427 1 030 2 550 5 640 9 540 14 360 20 300 

- Crude oil 128 571 87 416 84 989 58 318 46 640 20 000 0 0 0 

Source: Comparative analysis of port operation in Belize – Technical Note n°IDB-TN1236 –January 2017 




5 DOMESTIC AVIATION FORECASTS 

Civil aviation in Belize is highly dependent on the tourism industry; consequently, aircraft 

movements and passenger arrivals reflect the fluctuations noted in the Tourism chapter of this 

report. Domestic air transport is also subject to tourism fluctuations, as well as other factors such 

as competing modes of travel: ferry and road, and reluctance amongst some potential passengers 

to travel on small aircraft. 

The proportion of Belizean travellers against international travellers is shown below. Except for 

arrivals in 2012, Belizean residents and overseas nationals average 21% of international arrivals. 

Belizean and Tourist international passenger arrivals 

Source: Belize Civil Aviation Department 

5.1 Phillip Goldson International Airport 

5.1.1 PGIA Operations 

The Phillip Goldson International Airport (PGIA) is the only airport in Belize licensed for 

international air transport. The airport also serves as a transfer hub for passengers with onward 

destinations to Guatemala and Mexico, as well as to a significant proportion of travellers to other 

destinations in Belize. 

Historical and projected aircraft arrivals at PGIA are shown below. The tables clearly demonstrate 

the high proportion of domestic vs international traffic at PGIA. Projected passenger movements 

are shown. 




PGIA International and Domestic Aircraft Movements 2006-2016 

45162 

43754 

18423 

32274 

29329 32143 31399 

27343 26934 27135 

24623 

25238 

22993 23467 

22089 22219 

18974 19094 18022 18863 

15999 

18373 

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

Source: Belize Civil Aviation Department 

Air traffic growth at PGIA is projected at 7% in 2017 partially due to the severe winter in North 

America as well as the introduction of new Westjet services from Denver and Fort Lauderdale. 

Thereafter growth is shown at 4.0% annually until 2035. Estimated aircraft movements in 2017 

are 61,526 rising to 69,208 in 2020; 84,203 in 2025 and 124,640 in 2035. Aircraft movements 

measures each arrival and departure. 

140000 

120000 

100000 

80000 

60000 

40000 

20000 

PGIA International and Domestic Aircraft Movements 2017-2035 

PGIA Projected Aircraft Movements 

0 

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 


Source: Egis 




Projected Passenger Movements 2017-2035 

PGIA Projected Passenger Movements 

2500000 

2000000 

1500000 

1000000 

500000 

0 

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 


Source: Egis 

The number of passengers moving through PGIA follows the same trend, and is expected to grow 

from 974,317 in 2017 to 1,172,692 in 2020, growing to 1426,759 in 2025 and reaching over two 

million in 2035. 

5.1.2 PGIA Capacity 

PGIA is categorised as ICAO Code 4 in respect of runway length (2,950 meters / 39,678 feet) and 

therefore can accommodate landings and taking-offs of Boeing 737 / Airbus A-320 and larger 

aircrafts. However, PGIA has insufficient safety distances for taxiing of aircraft (in particular, those 

with a large wing-span), which means that there are restrictions on manoeuvring on the airfield, 

with consequent limitations on traffic volume. To accommodate the projected increase in airside 

movements, new taxiways with the required separation between runway and taxiway should be 

developed, and completed by 2025. 

BACC has already embarked on a program of upgrading and expansion of the terminal and 

aircraft parking areas and these should be sufficient until 2030, and possibly beyond. 

It is also important to note that the airport is already constrained by the shortage of air traffic 

controllers. At present only 2 ATC shifts can be staffed, and 24-hour operation for scheduled air 

traffic is not possible. Air traffic control at PGIA is responsible for all air traffic throughout Belize, 

international and domestic. A program of recruitment and training of new air traffic controllers is 

critical and has been recommended as a short-term action. 




5.2 Domestic Aerodromes 

5.2.1 Operations 

The Belize Airports Authority (BAA) is the owner and operator of sixteen (16) public aerodromes, 

some of which are mere airstrips i.e. without terminal buildings. The primary aerodromes under 

BAA management are: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Sir Barry Bowen (Belize City Municipal Airport - BCMA) 

John Grieff II (San Pedro - SPO) 

Caye Caulker (CKR) 

Dangriga (Pelican Beach PLB) 

Placencia (PLA) 

Corozal 

Orange Walk. 

The Table below show the aircraft landings at the busiest aerodromes for the period 2007-2016. 

Landing movements at selected aerodromes, 2007-2016 

Sir Barry Bowen Caye Caulker Placencia Dangriga John Grieff II 

2007 16,515 3,715 6,375 5,486 17,123 

2008 18,037 4,164 7,070 6,480 19,577 

2009 16,100 3,438 6,289 5,372 16,889 

2010 15,422 3,609 6,057 5,683 17,400 

2011 16,256 3,897 6,375 5,490 18,844 

2012 16,311 3,874 6,643 5,941 19,510 

2013 15,683 3,924 6,317 5,695 19,515 

2014 16,065 3,917 6,669 5,827 20,275 

2015 16,449 4,183 6,200 5,916 20,220 

2016 16,688 4,460 6,620 6,438 20,882 

Source: Belize Airports Authority 

The Table below shows domestic passenger statistics for the period March – July 2017 by airline. 

Passenger statistics were not previously collected by BAA. 




Domestic Air Traffic March-July 2017 

Month Tropic Air 

Maya Island 

Air 

Caribee Air 

Services 

Javier's 

Flying 

Services 

Operators 

Total Pax 

March 33,095 17,290 145 43 50,573 

April 29,630 16,272 131 40 46,073 

May 24,578 13,490 89 16 38,173 

June 25,179 13,220 37 20 38,456 

July 26,110 15,295 - 37 41,442 

Total 

Passengers 138,592 75,567 402 156 214,717 

Source: Belize Airports Authority 

5.2.2 Forecast Movements for Domestic Aerodromes 

Whilst the traffic growth at the international airport is quite robust, a review of historical data for 

the regional aerodromes shows that the increase in flights has been more modest, averaging 

2.1% per year. Passengers travelling within Belize have a choice of modes of transport: ferry, 

public transport (bus, taxi) and private transport, as well as air transport. Factors such as 

convenience and cost also come into play. For this reason, in generating the projections for 

domestic air transport annual increases of 3.5% in 2017, and 2% thereafter until 2026 have been 

applied, with increases of 1.5% from 2027-2035. The Table below shows projected growth for the 

5 busiest aerodromes: Sir Barry Bowen (BCMA), Caye Caulker (CKR), Placencia (PLA), Dangriga 

(PLB) and John Grieff II (SPO). The following Table provides projections of passenger arrivals 

at these aerodromes. Passenger projections have been based on an average load factor of 6 

passengers on the Cessna Grand Caravans and 4 passengers on the smaller aircraft. It is to be 

noted that Caye Caulker will be closed to air traffic for up to 2 months in 2018 to facilitate a 

complete runway resurfacing and other remedial work, hence the low figures for that airport in 

2018. 

Selected domestic aerodromes – projected landings 2017-2035 

2016 2017 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 

BCMA 16,688 17,272 17,618 18,329 19,070 19,840 20,237 21,908 23,602 

CKR 4,460 4,460 3,791 4,254 4,425 4,604 4,696 5,084 5,477 

PLA 6,620 6,852 6,989 7,271 7,565 7,870 8,028 8,562 9,363 

PLB 6,438 6,663 6,797 7,071 7,357 7,654 7,807 8,327 9,105 

SPO 20,882 21,613 22,045 22,936 23,862 24,826 25,323 27,009 29,533 

Source: Egis 




Selected domestic aerodromes – projected passenger arrivals 2017-2035 

2016 2017 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2030 2035 

BCMA 150,192 155,449 158,558 164,963 171,628 178,562 182,133 197,175 212,414 

CKR 26,760 26,760 22,746 25,521 26,552 27,625 28,177 30,504 32,862 

PLA 46,340 47,962 48,921 50,898 52,954 55,093 56,195 61,749 65,538 

PLB 38,628 39,980 40,780 42,427 44,141 45,924 46,843 51,472 54,631 

SPO 146,174 151,290 154,316 160,550 167,036 173,785 177,260 191,901 206,731 

Totals 408,094 421,441 425,320 444,359 462,311 480,989 490,609 532,802 572,176 

Source: Egis 

5.2.3 Regional Aerodromes – Capacity 

Sir Barry Bowen (Belize Municipal Airport) 

The Sir Barry Bowen Airport underwent a major upgrade which was completed in 2016, with an 

extension to the runway to 1,800 metres (5,905 feet) and the addition of a taxiway and runway 

lighting. From the perspective of the airside facilities, the airport is ICAO compliant and can 

accommodate growth for the foreseeable future. 

The airport is bordered along the length of the runway by passenger and cargo facilities built and 

owned by the two domestic airlines. Consequently, there are several separate access points onto 

the airside; for security reasons, these should be reduced to a single access point for passengers, 

and a single access point for cargo. The optimum solution would be to develop common-use 

passenger and cargo terminal buildings; however, this solution is likely to meet resistance from 

the airlines. 

John Grieff II Airport 

The John Grieff Airport on San Pedro is the busiest of the regional aerodromes. The airport 

operates at a notional ICAO Code 2B 81 with a runway of 1,000 metres (3,281 feet) in length and 

18 metres (59 feet) in width. The minimum runway width requirement for this aerodrome is 23 

metres (75 feet). The airport has no parallel taxiway and a very small apron, which severely 

restricts aircraft movement on the ground. With buildings on 3 sides of the manoeuvring areas 

and a nearby office building that breaches the transitional space, the John Grieff II airport has 

essentially been outgrown. The airport cannot accommodate larger aircraft, or even small jets 

because of the physical constraints, and it is expected that traffic growth will be stalled within 2 

years. In the Short-term Action Plan, recommendation has been made for the relocation of this 

airport. 

81 

All airports are categorised according to the ICAO Standards which are based on the minimum runway length and 

width required for the largest aircraft for which the aerodrome is designed. A further code is also given, denoting the 

level of Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting equipment based on the aerodrome. 




A proposal has been made to develop a new airport on Ambergris Cay as an international airport. 

This cannot be done before restrictions imposed by the concession agreement between BAA and 

the Belize Airport Concession Company (operator of PGIA) are removed. A land-use plan and 

masterplan for a domestic facility should nevertheless make provision for future expansion. 

However, it is important to note that any future development must consider the “design aircraft” 

i.e. the largest aircraft intended to land and take-off at the airport to properly design the future 

runways, taxiways and parking apron 82 . Further consideration must also be given to whether the 

airport is to be used for jet aircraft, as provision must be made for the protection from jet blast of 

propeller aircraft (and buildings, equipment and personnel). 

The John Grieff II airport has excellent passenger facilities and offices built and owned by the two 

major domestic airlines. 

Caye Caulker 

The facilities at Caye Caulker do not meet ICAO requirements. The runway with a “chip and seal” 

surface is badly eroded and shows subsidence in some sections of the substrate. The BAA has 

plans to undertake a full repair and upgrading of the runway with a hot-mix asphalt surface. The 

project includes shoring up the shoulders which are subject to flooding. BAA also intends to 

replace the terminal building which is in a very poor state of repair. Once the upgrading work is 

completed the Caye Caulker aerodrome should have the capacity to meet demand for the 

foreseeable future. 

Placencia 

Placencia has a runway of 651 metres (2,136 feet) long, sufficient to accommodate the present 

domestic aircraft, however the runway width at 7.6 metres (25 feet) is well below the 18 metres 

(59 feet) required to meet the ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices. The runway is 

badly eroded, but more importantly, there are no turning aprons nor proper runway thresholds 

and the main road passes immediately across one end of the runway. Barriers are lowered to 

halt road traffic before aircraft landing and take-off, but this is not an ideal situation. Because of 

the lower traffic levels and the lack of adjacent development, the situation is not as serious as the 

situation at San Pedro, consideration should be given to relocating the Placencia aerodrome 

within the next 10 years. 

The aerodrome lacks proper perimeter fencing, leaving it open to the hazards of wildlife and 

unauthorised persons. In addition, the terminal buildings are small and inadequate for the present 

level of passenger traffic. 

Dangriga 

The airstrip at Dangriga is located close to Pelican Beach and is also known as the Pelican Beach 

Airstrip. The runway is 638 metres long, but only 9 metres (30 feet) wide and so does not meet 

the minimum requirement for ICAO code 1, which calls for an 18-metre-wide (59 feet) runway. 

However, the airstrip has a good hot-mix asphalt surface with paved shoulders, an improvement 

on other airfields. Unfortunately, this airstrip also lacks turn pads, causing erosion to the 

pavement. 

As with other aerodromes, the two domestic carriers have their own terminal buildings, which are 

in a reasonable state of repair. 

82 

ICAO Annex 14, and ICAO Doc 9157 Aerodrome Design Manual 




Unlike John Grieff II and Placencia, passengers travelling to and from the Dangriga aerodrome 

are mostly local residents. Passenger numbers have been robust; this may change if travel by 

road to Belize City were to be improved. 

The Dangriga site does offer the possibility of further airside improvement (turn pads) and this 

should be undertaken as soon as possible, and perimeter fencing needs to be installed. A house 

was observed across the channel and quite close to the runway, which would seem to obstruct 

the transitional space. Measures should be taken to prevent further construction so close to the 

aerodrome. 

Notwithstanding the recommended improvements, the facilities at Dangriga should serve the 

community for a further 10 years or more. 

Corozal 

The Corozal airstrip has a 580-metre-long (1,903 feet) runway plus a 120-metre (393 feet) 

displaced threshold which provides for aircraft taxiing. This runway benefits from turnpads and 

complies with ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices. Unfortunately, the two airline 

passenger terminal buildings are built too close to the runway and therefore infringe upon the 

obstacle limitation surface. 

Traffic at Corozal, compared to the other BAA aerodromes is very low, but nevertheless is 

increasing, and consideration may have to be given at some point in the future to addressing the 

breaches caused by the terminal buildings. 

Orange Walk 

Orange Walk is essentially an airstrip with no terminal buildings, although having regular, but low, 

service. The runway has a hot-mix asphalt surface and at a length of 700 meters (2,297 feet) and 

width of 18 meters (59 feet) meets ICAO requirements. The Belize Power Company line crosses 

the transitional space and needs to be relocated. Other improvements include security fencing 

and an apron for aircraft parking. Once these improvements are made, the airstrip could be put 

to more regular use. 

Secondary Airstrips 

In addition to the aerodromes described above, BAA owns and operates a further 6 airstrips (e.g. 

Belmopan). None of these airstrips has terminal buildings or runways that meet the minimum 

safety standards, and the pavements are chip and seal and in poor condition. However, they are 

used for some passenger operations (mainly private) as well as for medical and other 

emergencies. 

5.3 Conclusion 

Except for the Sir Barry Bowen Airport which has been upgraded very recently, all the aerodromes 

are in breach of at least one of the ICAO Standards for safe operation. As traffic is expected to 

continue to grow, it is necessary to plan for infrastructure improvements at the busiest aerodromes 

before lack of capacity becomes a hindrance to growth. Planning should consider the future 

introduction of newer and larger aircraft that will allow for more efficient transfer of passengers 

from PGIA to regional areas. 




6 WATER TAXI AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT FORECAST 

For bus passengers, DoT share us recently (at the end of August 2017) passengers counts from 

2014 to 2017, done by the DoT supervisors in the 6 bus terminals supervised by DoT 

(Independence, Stann Creek, Belmopan, Belize City, Orange Walk, Corozal). It exists important 

variations from one year to the other and there is no comprehensible explanation for such 

variations. 

For the six first months of 2017 (January to June), passenger’s counts are similar from the first 6 

months of 2016 (increase of 1,4%). 

DoT passengers counts at bus terminal 

Total passenger 

per year 

2014 2015 2016 

5,136,206 7,361,674 4,883,825 

Variation 43% -34% 

Source: DoT, 2017 

Water Taxi are operated from private companies that have their own infrastructure. Belize Port 

Authority only control security matters with some aleatory visits and does not realize / ask for 

counts on passengers. 

6.1 Origin-destination and desire lines 

The table shows the main Origin Destination pairs, it is observed that the O-D trips takes place 

within the Belize District and Ambergris Caye, only this pair represents 61% of all trips. 

Main O-D Water Taxi, Belize Base Year (2017) 83 

Zone_Ori Zone_Des Origin Reference Destination Reference % Total 

39 83 Belize City San Pedro Town 61% 

39 84 Belize City Caye Caulker 29% 

83 84 San Pedro Town Caye Caulker 10% 

Main O-D Pair 61% 

Rest O-D Pairs 39% 

Total 100% 


The below Figure shows the water taxi assignment in the Base year (2017). 

83 

The Origin / Destination reference shown is based on the Zoning catalog and groups several populations. 




Water Taxi Assignment (by Desire Line) 

Main O-D – Water Taxi, Belize - 2017 


The travel forecast is based on growth factors models. The growth factor technique is applied to 

obtain future trips from the existing travel patterns obtained from origin-destination surveys. These 

factors are obtained for each area and purpose of travel (tourism, work, study). The projection is 

obtained by a series of successive approximations. In the Fratar method, which is the most used 

growth factor technique, the forecast of future trips between two zones is obtained by multiplying 

the current trips by the product of the growth factors for both zones, with an adjustment to the 

relative attraction of the other areas. 

The purposes of travel are classified into two groups, residents and tourists, for these two groups 

are different growths. 




6.2 Public Transport 

For public transportation, the Fratar method will be applied. As commented in the previous 

reports, the forecasts of trips will be based on the population growth, which is the only variable 

that is available in the current situation and for which forecasts can be made. 

As there is no reliable historical passenger volume data, by stations and less by corridors by the 

authority or by the carriers, it is not possible to correlate population growth with passenger data. 

It is also not possible to determine the impact of the motorization rate growth on the number of 

public transport journeys. 

The proposed demand scenario assumes that if there is a modernization of public transport 

(recent units, upgraded in comfort, formal operation, security, and infrastructure) the public 

transport market share could be maintained in the future and public transport will be able to meet 

the growth in travel needs of the population 

The Fratar technique can be represented by the following mathematical expression. 

[3.3] 

T h ij= Predicted trips, from zone i to zone j (in horizon year) 

T h i= Number of future trips expected to be generated from zone i 

T ij…….in= Number of current trips between zone i and all other zones j ... ..n (in the base 

year) 

Fi… Fn: Growth factors of individual zones i ... n. 

Visum, which is the modeling software has a tool to make the model Fratar "MFratar" the main 

input are the base year matrices, source area growths and destination zones. 

6.3 Water Taxi 

The Water Taxi, mainly operate between Belize City and San Pedro and Cay Caulker. For both 

islands, a forecast for population and tourism has been realized. For this mode, a single growth 

factor by island will be used for tourist, another one by island for residents or workers. 

It is considered a 1 to 1 factor between the growth of tourism and the growth of trips for that 

purpose. 

In the same way, it is considered a factor of 1 to 1 between the population growth and the growth 

of trips of the residents. 




6.4 Summary Water Taxi and Pubic Transport 

The following is a summary table: 

Water Taxi & Public Transport Forecasts Summary 

Vehicle Type Type Travel Motives Growth/Rates Forecast Model Tool 

Water Taxi 


Resident Other, School, Work Population Forecast 1 Matrix by a constant Excel 

Tourist Tourism Tourism Forecast 2 Matrix by a constant Excel 

Resident Other, School, Work Population Forecast 1 Fratar PTV Visum 

Tourist Tourism Tourism Forecast 2 Fratar PTV Visum 

1 Preparation of a comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan of Belize 

2 National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan of Belize 


Visum Forecast Diagram 





Summary Trips/Passenger Flow Water Taxi & Public Transport Forecasts 

Vehicle 

Group 

Segment 

Base year 

(2017) 

2025 2035 

Job 633 821 1,053 

Water Taxi 

(Passengers) 

Recreation 794 1,098 1,577 

Other 357 460 588 

Studies 329 433 562 

Total 2,113 2,812 3,780 

Job 20,113 25,693 33,658 

Public 

Transport 

(Passengers) 

Recreation 3,580 5,521 9,086 

Other 8,967 10,825 12,956 

Studies 9,799 12,127 14,817 

Total 42,459 54,166 70,516 

** The demand of Public Transport does not consider the impact on Modal Choice 


The above table does not include the impact of modal choice due to increased vehicle ownership 

and improved public transport services. These impacts are integrated in the next step of the 

demand modeling process based on the stated preference analysis (see Section 2.2.3 above). 

The final public transport demand forecasts are shown in the below consolidated forecasts. 




7 CONSOLIDATED FORECASTS 

Summary of demand forecasts 

Vehicle Group 

Segment 

Improved Base 

year (2017) 

2025 2035 

Job 37,937 49,785 65,081 

Private road vehicle 

(Passengers) 

Recreation 6,550 9,844 15,717 

Other 18,236 22,078 26,441 

Studies 1,807 2,200 2,646 

Total 64,530 83,908 109,884 

Job 20,113 30,645 40,122 


(Passengers) 

Recreation 3,580 5,097 8,388 

Other 8,967 11,138 13,331 

Studies 9,799 11,913 14,549 

Total 42,459 58,793 76,390 

Semi Trailer 22,521 27,962 38,499 

Trucks (Tons) 

Trailer 8,155 10,901 15,660 

Full Trailer 796 1,196 1,833 

31,472 40,058 55,992 

Job 633 821 1,053 

Water Taxi 

(Passengers) 

Recreation 794 1,098 1,577 

Other 357 460 588 

Studies 329 433 562 

Total 2,113 2,812 3,780 


(Passengers) 

2,433 2,950 3,441 

Total 2,433 2,950 3,441 





ANNEX 4: ANALYSIS OF PORT HINTERLAND EXPANSION 

POTENTIAL 




ANALYSIS OF PORT HINTERLAND EXPANSION POTENTIAL 

The present sections aim to identify the opportunity to divert cargo to PoB from other ports in the 

region. The methodology is based in the estimation of the logistic cost of the current routes versus 

the route thru Belize. 

The following map shows the international trade maritime routes 84 , in the case of Belize´s sea 

ports, interactions with ports in Guatemala, Honduras and the Caribbean 85 were identified. 

Maritime traffic in the region 

Source: UCL Energy Institute, 2012 

The study case is based in the transport of goods between the Caribbean and Guatemala for the 

next scenarios: 

n 

n 

Current situation. Beverages import 86 (in container) from Jamaica to Guatemala in 

San Tomas Castilla port and road transport to Guatemala City 

The scenario thru Belize considers two variants: 

o Container import in PoB, road transport to Benque Viejo Border (current border), 

transfer of freight to a Guatemalan truck, road transport to Guatemala City 

o Container import in PoB, road transport to Jalacte Border (current border), transfer 

of freight to a Guatemalan truck, road transport to Guatemala City 

The following map and scheme represents the analysis performed. 

84 

The map was created based on movements of the global merchant fleet over the course of 2012 data from the UCL 

Energy Institute (UCL EI) 

85 

The ports of the Caribbean (Kingston and Newport) are used by large ships as hubs to distribute cargo to smaller 

ports through feeder ships. 

86 

Observatory of Economic Complexity,2016 




Considered routes 


Logistic analysis diagram 





The data sources used in the analysis were 

n "Trading across Borders", World Bank 2016 

n "Trucking services in Belize, Central America and the Dominican Republic. 

Performance Analysis and Policy Recommendations "87, IDB 2012 

n Data obtained with stakeholders in Belize regarding costs to move cargo to 

Guatemalan trucks at the border 

The analysis is made for unitary container and only includes costs associated to handle the cargo 

in port of entry (PoE) and inland transportation. The costs considered for each logistic process 

are detailed as follows: 

Logistics costs: Current route 

Process 

Cost 

(USD/container) 

Import cost into Guatemala $ 545.00 

Inland transportation (Port of Santo Tomas to Guatemala City) $ 543.37 

Total cost $ 1,088.37 


Logistics costs: Thru Belize using Benque Viejo PoE 

Cost 

Process 


Import cost into Belize $ 763.00 

Inland transportation (Port of Belize to PoE Benque Viejo) $ 339.88 

Parking and Transload to Guatemalan truck at the border $ 30.00 

Import cost into Guatemala 88 $ 340.00 

Inland transportation (PoE Benque Viejo to Guatemala City) $ 997.96 



Logistics costs: Thru Belize using Jalacte PoE 

Process 

Cost 


Import cost into Belize $ 763.00 

Inland transportation (Port of Belize to POE Jalacte) $ 767.38 

Transloading and parking in the Belize-Guatemala border $ 30.00 

Import cost into Guatemala 89 $ 340.00 

Inland transportation (POE Jalacte to Guatemala City) $ 619.73 



87 

The costs obtained from this study were updated by inflation in the period 2012-2016, inflation in each country was 

obtained from the World Bank. 

88 

In this case the "Port or border handling" is discounted, with the following remaining: "Clearance and inspections 

required by customs authorities", and "Documentary compliance" 

89 

In this case the "Port or border handling" is discounted, with the following remaining: "Clearance and inspections 

required by customs authorities", and "Documentary compliance" 




For analysis facilitation, costs were grouped in three categories. 

n 

n 

n 

Import cost. Cost in the POE in Belize and/or Guatemala 

Inland transportation. Transportation cost in Belize and/or Guatemala 

Additional services. Represent the cost of move cargo from Belizean to Guatemalan 

trucks at the border 

The comparative results are presented in the next table: 

Costs (USD) 

Existing route 

Logistics costs 

Evaluated (Benque 

Viejo POE) 

Evaluated (Jalacte 

POE) 

Import cost $ 545.00 $ 1,103.00 $ 1,103.00 

Inland transportation $ 543.37 $ 1,337.83 $ 1,387.10 

Additional services $ - $ 30.00 $ 30.00 

Total $ 1,088.37 $ 2,470.83 $ 2,520.10 

Δ Cost against 

existing 

-- 127% 132% 


As shown in the following graph, import costs account for almost 50% of the total logistic cost on 

the land route from port to city. 

Comparison of logistics costs 


Based in the analysis, divert cargo from Guatemala ports is unlikely since the cost is not 

competitive compared to the current route. 

The analysis does not include security services in Guatemala roads to the cargo such as use of 

escort vehicles, security guards, etc 90 that can reach up to 22% of freight value 91 

90 

According with stakeholder’s interviews use of escort vehicles and guards is a widespread practice in Guatemalan 

carriers 

91 

Trucking Services in Belize, Central America and the Dominican Republic: Performance Analysis and Policy 

Recommendations, IDB 2013 




ANNEX 5: 

SCENARIOS 

ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT 




ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS 

1. THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM GOALS 

Scenario development starts with the study of higher level strategic documents. For the CNTMP 

for Belize the guiding documents are the following: 

n National Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030 

n Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy (GSDS) 2016-2019 

These are completed later by other national and regional plans or studies the Tourism Master 

Plan, but initially they are the key documents giving guidance for the Consultant. 

National Development Framework for Belize 2010-2030 leads to refine a huge range of Belize 

policies, programs and projects. Within that framework, the transport policy must meet the 

following vision: 

“An effective and efficient transport system solving mobility needs and providing 

socio-economic development opportunities, while contributing to fighting against 

climate change phenomena and preserving biodiversity and health” 

This vision is included again in the GSDS, in which the Comprehensive National Transport Master 

Plan for Belize is part of. 

An overview of such documents extract major goals at national level for the Belizean society: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Sustainable economic development supporting agriculture and tourism 

Regional integration 

Social development and cohesion 

Fight (mitigation and adaptation) against climate change 

Preservation of the environment 

Better Governance 

Therefore, we have considered appropriate to use them as inspiration both to differentiate 

scenarios during their development and to generate the criteria that will be used to evaluate and 

compare the scenarios. 

At a more specific level of the transport sector, other goals can be identified from the main 

strategic reports. These goals have also been identified during the baseline phase (mainly as 

general problems needing to be solved) and can be re-grouped as follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Optimizing the present transport system achieving financial sustainability 

Improving the performance of the transport system to cover better and in more varied 

ways the needs of Belizean citizens and companies 

Improving the resilience of the transport system against shocks and climate change 

Reducing, or at least controlling, the environmental footprint of transport infrastructure 

and equipment 

These common goals ´were considered when developing scenarios. They can be used as well to 

differentiate each other, by focusing more on certain goals. Some sub-objectives have been 

included in the following figure: 




Common goals for the transport system 

2. THE APPROACH TO THE SUPPLY SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT 

There are two typical approaches for scenario development: 

n 

n 

The integral approach, used when several economic development and land use plans 

have been developed prior to the national transport master plan 

The supply approach, which is used when these guiding documents do not exist or 

are not precise enough. For the CNTMP we are using this approach, that is, from one 

demand scenario consistent with official macroeconomic forecasts, different supply 

scenarios are developed. This means to propose different ways of solving the same 

future situation. 

When conceiving scenarios usually two types of issues/problems must be faced: 

n 

n 

Existing bottlenecks (in infrastructure, regulations, institutional…) 

New developments or improvements 

Bottlenecks are for instance the lack of a bulk terminal in the Port of Belize City, or the capacity 

constraint in the municipal airport of San Pedro. Most of these have already been presented in 

the Baseline report and the Short-Term Action Plan report. Due to the low traffic levels in Belizean 

roads, there are few capacity bottlenecks in the road sector requiring urgent improvement. 

However, there are many sections that could make object of an upgrade, for instance so roads 

accessing important tourist attractions. A new development could be a new North-South corridor 

to create a major redundancy in the road network. 

During scenario development is then necessary to identify problems, potential solutions and the 

rationale that will be used to prioritise them and allocate resources for infrastructure investments. 

It usually starts with the analysis of strategic documents as the ones already mentioned above 

and it continues by analysing the situation from different angles as in the following examples: 

n 

Economic development focus: this covers very important dimensions as providing 

infrastructure that will promote the development of key economic sectors. In Belize, 

this can imply a trade-off between developing transport infrastructure for tourism or to 




n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

boost agricultural exports and trade. This will have an impact on roads but as well on 

the ports development strategy. 

Regional integration: the country can be active in moving towards regional integration, 

with more active trade facilitation policies or more conservative ones. 

Social development: in this dimension several elements are analysed and used to 

identify different scenarios: 

Accessibility on infrastructure, with trade-offs between investing in improving the main 

corridors or the accessibility to rural or less populated areas (here it appears, as well, 

dimensions as national geographical coverage and poverty reduction) 

Passenger transport services: the level of quality of service, the geographical 

coverage, the cost born by the user or the mode of transport provided are elements of 

choice that must be considered. 

Resilience, climate change and environmental preservation: in this dimension, it is 

necessary to consider, for instance, trade-offs between costs of building redundancies 

and natural risks, for resilience issues, and between costs for transport operators and 

GEH emissions, for climate change mitigation. 

This, combined with overall goals of the transport systems presented in the precedent section, 

have guided the development of three (3) different presenting sets of measures to solve the 

problems identified in earlier stage of the study. In some respects, the alternative in solving a 

problem is the same in the three scenarios, particularly the case on the regulatory and institutional 

solutions. Therefore, there are measures which are necessary for any scenario, so it is possible 

that in certain areas it will not be possible to obtain scenarios consistent and much differentiated 

at the same time. 

Finally, scenario development has a dimension of voluntarism, therefore it does not consist only 

to solve existing projects, but as well to make a choice about the type of future transport system 

that the country wants to develop. 

The three development scenarios have the following main features: 

n 

n 

n 

Scenario A – Giving priority to trade: Improving trade routes between harbour cities 

and other national and Regional centers of growth 

Scenario B – Giving priority to tourism: Developing the economy via supporting in 

priority the most effective and pro-tourism development undertakings. 

Scenario C – Social, economic and environmental integration: Increasing transport 

cohesion and improving accessibility of territories within the configuration of 


They may appear somehow extreme, but that exercise is necessary to differentiate and identify 

clearly which are the measures that really should be included. At the stage of development into 

implementation plan of the Selected Supply Scenario it may be possible to add specific measures 

from the other scenarios that but increase the attractiveness of the Selected Scenario without 

altering its rationale or hindering its implementation. 

Specific objectives and development measures identified for each scenario are presented in the 

table below. These have guided the type of investment projects and soft measures included in 

each scenario, as detailed later in this report. 




Rationale for Scenarios A, B and C 

Scenarios 


trade 


tourism 



Features 

Improving trade routes 

between harbour cities 

and other national and 

Regional centers of 

growth 

Developing the economy 

via supporting in priority 

the most effective and protourism 

development 

undertakings. 

Increasing transport 

cohesion and improving 

accessibility of territories 

within the configuration of 


Objectives 

à Effective and 

resilient transport 

network and 

systems focused on 

exports and trade, 

à Better transfer of 

freight from roads to 

maritime transport, 

à Better public 

transport systems 

on corridor basis 

and a reduction of 

CO2 emissions, 

à Increase of the use 

of private capital in 

transport 

development 

schemes and 

systems 

à Enhancement of culture 

and tourism for 

stimulating socioeconomic 

growth while 

securing sustainable 

development and 

environmental 

protection 

à Ease access to objects 

of culture and tourism 

by transport 


integrated systems of 

cultural and tourist 

information. 

à Diversification of the 

range of tourism 

activities and 

development of 

alternative economic 

activities 

à Enhance incoming 

tourism by increasing 

the competitive 

advantage of local 

touristic and cultural 

products in international 

markets. 

à Development of existing 

trade and tourism 

corridors in a balanced 

way 

à Enhancement of the 

development of existing 

sites of growth 

à Contributing to the 

development of remote 

areas with a better public 


à Increase of the capacity 

of both public and private 

sectors 

à Speeding-up the process 

of modernization and 

development of transport 

infrastructure via 

modernization and 

upgrade of road network, 

better access to 

modernized and 

developed sea ports 

Development 

measures 

à Modernization of 

the principal roads 

network focused on 

trade corridors 


transport safety 


seaport 


focused of freight 

à Improvement 

border 


processes to 

enhance regional 

trade 



à Modernization and 


national and local road 

system of touristic 

relevance 

à Development of seaport 

infrastructure focused 

on cruise passengers 

and port specialization 

à Development of sea 

transports servicing 

coastal areas and the 

Islands 


alternative international 

air gates 

à Sustainable & resilient 


à New redundancies for 

road and seaport 


à Improved supply of public 


à Moderate improvement 

of border infrastructure 

and processes 

à Inclusive development: 

à Better access to areas 

with poor connectivity 

à More public transport 

services to rural areas 



It is worth noting that for the horizons of the scenarios (2025, 2035) the measures presented in 

the Short-Term Action Plan are mostly considered as approved and implemented by 2020 with 

minor exceptions: capacity buildings programs that will continue over time, the border post in 




Jalacte that depends on the negotiations with Guatemala... As a reminder they are listed as 

follows: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Adding Road Sections & Bridges to the National Road Network. Upgrading to highway 

standard of some 10.8 miles of road and the construction of three (3) bridges. 

Improving Road Maintenance Program 

Replacing Four Single Lane Bridges with Dual-Lane ones 

Replicating Road Safety Program – Northern Corridor 

Developing New Manual of Standards 

Protecting Road Assets from Overloads –TA Program 

Establishing a Scholarship Program to educate future staff of MoW and DoT 

Exploring the options for a pilot PPP for operations and maintenance on the future 

paved Manatee road. Assess the different funding possibilities to implement a PPP 

contract for O&M on that road 

Establishing a National Belize Motor Vehicle Registration and Licensing System 

Developing inter-city bus stops and enforcing their usage 

Designing, building and operating the new inter-city bus terminal of Belize City 

Modernizing Public Bus Service and Issuance of Public Transport Permits 

Providing Technical Assistance and Capacity Building for the Belize Port Authority 

Providing support to the Government of Belize to shift toward a more efficient 

organization of stevedoring in Belize Port Ltd. 

Devsing a Comprehensive strategy for the development of Belize Port Ltd. 

Providing support to Big Creek Group for completing dredging works in the Port of Big 

Creek. 

Opening new market opportunities at the Port of Big Creek LPG and importing 

petroleum products). As the changes in the regulation should be made by the legal 

advisors of the GOB, no cost has been estimated for this measure, being more 

dependent of the political will. 

Mapping and reviewing of the possibilities for inland waterway transport. Inventory of 

inland waterways with bathymetry in screened sections and then comparison with road 

transport alternatives. 

Conducting a study of PSO contracts for rendering commuting ferry services for 

employees of the tourist industry – preparation of tender documents. Market study and 

business plan for ferry services between Corozal to/from San Pedro and 

Independence to/from Placencia. 

Restructuring the Regulatory Oversight of the Civil Aviation Sector 

Addressing shortcomings in the security arrangements at the regional aerodromes. 

Training and installation of baggage screening x-ray machines at the Sir Barry Bowen 

and John Grieff II aerodrome. 

Upgrading the runway at Caye Caulker. Resurfacing, runway widening, shore 

protection and installation of runway lighting 

Developing airport master plan for San Pedro 

Reviewing terms in the Concessions Agreement between the Belize Airports Authority 

and the Belize Airport Concession Company. 

Establishing the minimum infrastructure for border control in Jalacte border crossing 

Reducing the ad valorem tax applied to transhipment goods. Study the advantages for 

the country of reducing or removing the tax applied to transhipment goods. 

Moreover, there are several on-going projects or projects funded to be implemented shortly. 

These projects are considered as implemented by 2020 and hence, have not been mentioned in 

this section of the report. An example is the rehabilitation of the Coastal Road. We have been 




informed that there are also on-going projects on the road to Jalacte (section from Georgeville to 

Tripartite Junction) and as well it is planned to widen the Philip Goldson Highway up to the border 

with Mexico to complete the work already started with the funds of the World Bank in the section 

close to the airport. These two sections appear in the maps below as the exact sections included 

in those programs were not available yet for the Consultant. However, they have not been 

considered as part of the cost estimations. 

The following sections describe more in detail the projects and reforms included in each scenario. 

Each scenario is detailed in two parts: infrastructure investments and soft measures (operational, 

regulatory and institutional). 

3. SCENARIO A: PRIORITY TO TRADE – MEASURES 

Scenario A focuses on trade and agricultural development. It prioritises the development of 

transport corridors, reforms at the borders posts, freight transport investments and the upgrade 

of rural roads useful for the transport of goods. It is weak on social development and includes only 

crucial projects for tourism development. 

Infrastructure projects – Scenario A 

The following figure shows the main infrastructure investments for Scenario A as well as their 

year of implementation. 

Main infrastructure projects in Scenario A 

n 

For the roads sector, two main principles have been used to select projects: 

o The widening of all the primary network to 8 feet shoulders using HMA as 





n 



Caribbean 

o The upgrading (paving) of several rural roads used for the transport of agricultural 

products 

A few projects for other purposes have been selected to balance the scenario. The 

complete list of projects is in the following table. 

Roads projects included in Scenario A 


Length Type 

(miles) 

Widening of George Price Highway 79 Widening 

Widening of Hattieville – Boom Highway 12 Widening 

Widening of Orange Walk Bypass Highway 5 Widening 

Widening of Hummingbird Highway 54 Widening 

Widening of Southern Highway 101 Widening 

Chan Chen - San Pedro – (Corozal Bypass) 11 Paving 

San Esteban - Progreso 10 Paving 

Orange Walk - San Esteban 6 Paving 

Chunox - Sarteneja 17 Paving 

Progreso - Little Belize - Chunox (Chunox road from 

Progreso-san Estevan road!) 

10 Paving 

Progreso - Copper Bank 6 Paving 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town 6 Paving 

Chunox - Copper Bank 3 Paving 

Maskall - Bomba 4 Paving 

Carmelita - Maskall (old northern highway) 22 Paving 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - 10 Rehabilitation 

Maskall - Nago Bank 2 Paving/New 

Tower Hill - Guinea Grass - Shipyard - San Felipe 31 Paving/New 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch Mouth Park Bridge - Santa 


13 Paving 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation Bridge 30 Paving 

San Antonio - Tripartite Junction 3 Paving 

Cristo Rey - San Antonio Road 6 Paving 

Santa Elena - Cristo Rey Road 4 Paving 

Georgeville - Tripartite Junction 9 Paving 

Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 9 Paving 

Tripartite Junction - Caracol Road 36 Paving 


San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot 1 Paving 

Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 6 Paving/new 


n 

For public transport, it is assumed that the bus stations will be renewed in all main 

cities (after pilot project in Belize City) by 2035. It assumes that at least Belmopan will 

be ready by 2025. 




n 


o A Bulk Terminal will be built in Belize City by 2025 which will shift the transport of 

sugar from BSI to road from barges. Due to the importance of this infrastructure 

for this scenario the assumption has been made that GOB may participate up to 

20% of the cost of the project and the dredging 




n 


o Relocation of Municipal Airport in San Pedro (2025) 

o Potential extension of PGIA (2025-2035), minimum a taxiway and maybe the 

terminal (this will be properly defined in the Medium and Long-Term Action Plan) 

n 


following regional standards for Coordinated Border Management and operational by 

2025, with a rolling out to the other gates by 2035. 

Soft measures – Scenario A 

On the side of the soft measures the main choices taken are the following: 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

For roads, there is a focus on maintaining the primary road network and protecting it 

with the implementation of weighbridges linked to tolls. There are several programs of 

capacity building both for MOW and contractors covering topics as data collection or 

new construction methods. Moreover, there is a real corridor policy and by 2035 

specific personnel is assigned to this and meet regularly with the representatives of 

neighbouring countries. 



vehicle fleet age and in the long term a regulation of emission is adopted. Some 

particular water taxi services are tentatively developed. 



City. 

Similarly, for air transport most of the actions are related to capacity building of the 

public authority. 

For logistics and trade facilitation, an ambitious program of measures is proposed 

covering reforms on the profession (access to profession, concentration of the sector, 

fleet renewal) to increase the competitiveness of Belizean carries in an environment 

of opening the country to regional trade. Linked to this, reforms on customs procedures 

and on the design of border posts are implemented to align the country to the regional 

practices. In the same line, regulations harmonizing weights and measures are applied 

to conform to other countries of the region. In the long term, a regulation controlling 

the emissions of pollutants is adopted. 

The totality of measures proposed (and their periods of implementation) is listed in the table 

below: 




Main Soft measures (operations, regulatory, institutional) for Scenario A 

Mode 2025 2035 

Road 

sector 

Public 

Transport 

Ports 

à Maintenance priority to primary road 

network and international connections 

and access to ports 

à Implementation of weighbridges on 

main trade corridors, potentially linked 

to tolls system 

à Technical assistance to road 

contractors 

à Capacity building to MOW on data 

collection processes 

à PPP policy / law adopted 

à Application of the public transport 

reform. Redesign of the bus network 

between key cities. Electronic 

ticketing 

à Concession to 2 to 3 companies 

maximum per corridor with specific 

conditions related to vehicle 

specifications (e.g. age 

requirements...) and quality of service 

à Fleet age limit at 15 years old 

à Water taxi services from PGIA and 

Bomba to San Pedro to reduce air 

transport needs or directly deliver 

vegetables from the producer’s area 

à Continue support from GOB on 

waterfront services reform 

à Continue capacity building to BPA 

à 50% of maintenance on private 

contracts 

à Assignment of specific staff to 

corridor management or even 

creation of an observatory for 

transport 

à Implementation of technical 

inspection centers to revise 

compliance for on road vehicles 

and engines emissions 

à Implementation of regulation on 

bus fleet emissions. Follow the 

EPA regulation and technology 

up to date. 

à Modernization of the container 

terminal in Belize City Port 

(handling and container yard) to 

reduce stevedoring needs 

Air 

Transport 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitation 

à Continue recruitment and training of 

new air traffic controllers 

à Capacity building at BAA and 

regulatory body 

à Develop border crossing infrastructure 

according to the parameters of the 

regional strategy for Coordinated 

Border Management (pilot at Jalacte) 

à Reform on road freight transport 

sector (professionalization + fleet 


à Issuing specific regulations for biarticulated 

trucks 

à Enforcing weight limits and 

dimensions of cargo vehicles 

à Optimize trade facilitation processes 

(pilot) 

à Develop border crossing 

infrastructure according to the 

parameters of the regional 

strategy for Coordinated Border 

Management (rolling out) 

à Implementation of regulation of 

pollutant emissions 

à Elimination of cargo change to 



à Optimize trade facilitation 

processes (rolling out) 




4. SCENARIO B: PRIORITY TO TOURISM – INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 

Scenario B focuses on tourism development. Consequently, it prioritises the development of 

additional infrastructure for cruise passengers, international air connections, water taxi services 

and the upgrade of rural roads serving tourist locations. It is rather weak on social development 

and agricultural development. 

Infrastructure projects – Scenario B 

The following figure shows the main infrastructure investments for Scenario B as well as their 


Main infrastructure projects in Scenario B 

n 

For the roads sector, three main principles have been used to select projects: 




n 

o The widening of to 8 feet shoulders of the sections of the primary road shared with 

the Mesoamerican Touristic Corridor of the Caribbean 

o The upgrade (paving) of several rural roads used for accessing to tourist locations 

o The inclusion of new roads better connecting tourist locations, as for example a 

connection from Altun Ha to Lamanai. 

A few projects for other purposes have been selected to balance the scenario. The 

complete list of projects is in the following table. 

Roads projects included in Scenario B 


Length Type 

(miles) 






Progreso - Little Belize - Chunox (Chunox road from Progresso- 

San Estevan road!) 

10 Paving 




Cerros - Copper Bank 2 Paving 


Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - X miles 10 Rehabilitation 

San Felipe - Shipyard - Lamanai 26 Paving/New 







San Jose Road 12 Paving 

San Miguel Road (Silver Creek Road - San Pedro Columbia loop) 7 Paving 


Lucky Strike (Altun ha) - Philip Goldson highway 11 New 

Lemonal - Lamanai 7 New 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai 14 New 





n 

n 

n 

n 



project in Belize City) by 2035. It assumes that at least Belmopan will be ready by 

2025. 

o A network of water taxi docking facilities along main cities/towns to facilitate the 

development of services. These have the additional function of marina. Besides 

the main cities, there are towns as Punta Gorda, Sarteneja and Bomba 


o A Cruise Terminal in Port of Belize City (2025). To represent the interest of GOB 

on this project, it is assumed that up to 20% of the funds of the project (including 

dredging) are public. 

o Extension of King’s Wharf (2025) and likely 2nd dock for containers in Port of 

Belize City (2035) 

o No investment on bulk in Belize City, Big Creek becomes the specialized port on 

bulk; Belize City on cruises and containers. All sugar exports from BSI not using 

containers shift to Big Creek Port and the transport is done by truck. 


o New International Airport in Ambergris Caye replacing the Municipal airport and 

creating new international connections 

o New taxiway in PGIA (2025) 


following classical standards and operational by 2025. 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

Soft measures – Scenario B 

For roads, there is no specific corridor policy in maintenance or in management. There 

is still some capacity building to contractors’ new construction methods. A PPP law is 

adopted early to be used on different sectors. 



vehicle fleet age and in the long term a regulation of emission is adopted. A specific 

regulation to incentive the development of water taxi services is adopted. In parallel a 

program of capacity building for Ministry of Transport and BPA is proposed (to try to 

create an integrated tariff system in the long term). 


areas. Operational improvements are foreseen in the medium term for Port of Belize 

City (container terminal equipment) and Big Creek Port (conveyor belts). 

For air transport a strong program of recruitment and training of new traffic controllers 

is mandatory due to the new airport. Activities of capacity building of the public 

authority continue. 

For logistics and trade facilitation, the reforms in the medium term are very mild, 

focused on bi-articulated truck permits and the adoption of a regulation harmonizing 

weights and measures with the countries of the region. In the long term, regulations 

on emissions and the reform of road freight sector (access to profession, concentration 

of the sector, fleet renewal) are implemented, 


below: 




Main Soft measures (operations, regulatory, institutional) for Scenario B 

Mode 2025 2035 

Road 

sector 

Public 

Transport 

Ports 


à Technical assistance to road 

contractors 



between key cities. Electronic 

ticketing 

à Fleet age limit at 15 years old 

à Develop public transport routes to 

touristic sites to limit charters 

services dependence for tourism 

services 

à Strengthen the capacity of the 

Department of Transport, and BPA 

for water taxis management 


water taxis to promote service 

development 





contracts 

à No specific corridor policy 

management 







EPA regulation and technology 

up to date. 

à Modernization of the container 

terminal in Belize City Port 

(handling and container yard) 

to reduce stevedoring needs 

Air 

Transport 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitation 

à Continue recruitment and training of 

new air traffic controllers 

à Capacity building at BAA and 

regulatory body 



parameters of the regional strategy 

for Coordinated Border Management 

(pilot at Jalacte) 

à Reform on road freight transport 

sector (professionalization + fleet 



trucks 

à Enforcing weight limits and 

dimensions of cargo vehicles 

à Optimize trade facilitation processes 

(pilot) 




strategy for Coordinated 

Border Management (rolling 

out) 




Belizean trucks at the border 

with Mexico and Guatemala. 


processes (rolling out) 




5. SCENARIO C: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION – INFRASTRUCTURE 

INVESTMENTS 

Scenario C offers a more balanced (and expensive) development between agriculture, trade and 

tourism, without being as effective in trade and tourism as respectively Scenarios A and B. It gives 

priority as well to the development of public transport services and to provide redundancies to the 

transport network to increase the resilience of the system. 

Infrastructure projects – Scenario C 

The following figure shows the main infrastructure investments for Scenario C as well as their 


Main infrastructure projects in Scenario C 

n 

For the roads sector, the main guidelines for action used to select projects have been 

the following: 




n 

o The widening of all the primary network to 8 feet shoulders using HMA as 




Caribbean 

o The upgrade (paving) of some rural roads used for both agricultural and tourist 

purposes 

o The upgrade (paving) of some rural roads increasing the accessibility of some 

isolated areas or creating necessary redundancies 

o The construction of new links major connections to increase the cohesion of the 

country. The main example is the new north-south road from Tower Hill to 

Belmopan. 

A few projects for other purposes have been selected to ensure the transport network 

connectivity and integration in the scenario. The complete list of projects is in the 

following table. 

Roads projects in Scenario C 


Length Type 

(miles) 



Widening of Hummingbird Highway 54 Widening 

Widening of Southern Highway 101 Widening 





Progreso - Little Belize - Chunox (Chunox road from Progresso- 

10 Paving 

San Estevan road) 





Carmelita - Maskall (old northern highway) 22 Paving 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - X miles 10 Rehabilitation 

Maskall - Nago Bank 2 Paving/New 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch Mouth Park Bridge - Santa Familia - 

13 Paving 


Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation Bridge 30 Paving 







San Jose Road 12 Paving 

San Miguel Road (Silver Creek Road - San Pedro Columbia loop) 7 Paving 

Red Bank Village Road 5 Paving 


Guinea Grass Highway (Guinea Grass-Shipyard-Lamanai- 

68 New 

Belmopan, including connection to San Felipe road) 

Crooked Tree - Lamanai 14 New 

Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 6 Paving/new 





n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

n 

For public transport, 

o It assumes that the bus stations will be renewed in all main cities (after pilot project 

in Belize City) by 2035. It assumes that the stations in the cities on the George 

Price Highway (Belmopan, San Ignacio, Benque Viejo) will be ready by 2025. 

o A network of water taxi docking facilities/marinas are built in specific locations in 

today lacking them, namely, Punta Gorda, Sarteneja, Bomba and eventually PGIA 


o A Bulk Terminal will be built in Belize City by 2025. Due to the importance of this 

infrastructure for this scenario the assumption has been made that GOB may 

participate up to 20% of the cost of the project and the dredging. In this scenario it 

is assumed that GOB promotes the use of IWT or penalizes the road from Orange 

Walk to Belize City (special tax or toll) to avoid a shift from barges to roads. It 

assumes as well that BSI prefers to use barges to not depend entirely on the road 

(half of its production will be already being exported in containers by road). 

o Extension of King’s Wharf (2025) and in Port of Belize City (2035). 2 nd berth 

needing more study (to be detailed in the Medium and Long-Term action plan) 





o Relocation of Municipal Airport in San Pedro (2025), with provision for potential 

extension to International standards (2035) 

o Potential extension of PGIA (2025-2035), minimum a taxiway and maybe the 

terminal (this will be properly defined in the Medium and Long-Term Action Plan) 

For the logistics and trade facilitation sector: 

o Jalacte Border Post will be designed following classical standards and operational 

by 2025. 

o Pilot project for modernization of Belizean Border Posts following the regional 

standards (CBM) by 2035 

Soft measures – Scenario C 

For roads, there is no specific corridor policy but still weighbridges linked to tolls are 

implemented to better preserve the road assets. There are several programs of 

capacity building both for MOW and contractors covering topics as data collection or 

new construction methods. A policy on PPP is adopted and a law on Right of Way is 

approved to facilitate the planning and the extension of infrastructure in the long term 

For public transport, the main action is to continue with the implementation of the public 

transport reform proposed in the Short-Term Action Plan and extend its scope to more 

rural areas including services carried out by minibuses and monitored today by the 

municipalities. It insists on reducing the vehicle fleet age and in the long term a 

regulation of emission is adopted. Some particular water taxi services are tentatively 

developed. 



City. In the medium term, a policy providing incentives might be proposed to promote 

the utilization of inland waterways. 

For air transport most of the actions are related to capacity building of the public 

authority. 

For logistics and trade facilitation, a program of measures is proposed in two different 

horizons. In the medium, the actions focus on reforming profession (access to 

profession, concentration of the sector, fleet renewal) to increase the competitiveness 

of Belizean carries in an environment of opening the country to regional trade. It 

includes as well the adoption of a regulation harmonizing weights and measures with 




other countries of the region as well as clarifying the situation of bi-articulated trucks. 

In the medium term, one out of the three gates is chosen to be used as a pilot for the 

implementation of the reforms on customs procedures and on the design of border 

posts to align the country to the regional practices. 


below: 

Main Soft measures (operations, regulatory, institutional) for Scenario C 

Mode 2025 2035 

Road 

sector 

Public 

Transport 

Ports 

Air 

Transport 

Logistics 

and trade 

facilitation 

à Implementation of weighbridges on main 

trade corridors, potentially linked to tolls 

system 


à Technical assistance to MOW on data 

collection 

à Adoption of law on Right of Way 

à Technical assistance to road contractors 



between key cities including first class 

services and coordinated feeder 

service within rural areas with smaller 

buses / vans. Electronic ticketing 

à Fleet age limit at 15 years old (inter-city 

buses) 

à Water taxi services from PGIA/Bomba to 

San Pedro and other lines to reduce air 

transport needs 




à Policy giving incentives to the use of IWT 

(to avoid shifting from barges to road 

transport) 

à Continue recruitment and training of new 

air traffic controllers 

à Capacity building at BAA and regulatory 

body 


trucks 

à Enforcing weight limits and dimensions 

of cargo vehicles 

à Reform on road freight transport sector 

(professionalization + fleet renewal + 

concentration) 


contracts 

à No specific corridor policy 

management 

à Road Maintenance Fund 







EPA regulation and technology up 

to date. 

à Modernization of the terminal in 

Belize City (handling and 

container yard) to reduce 

stevedoring needs 




strategy for Coordinated Border 

Management (pilot to be selected) 







processes (pilot) 




ANNEX 6: 

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 




ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 

An economic assessment based on cost-benefit analysis, the Net Present Value (NPV) is used 

as an indicator of economic efficiency. To estimate the NPV, the expected streams of benefits 

and cost of future years are discounted with what is called a discount rate to convert these streams 

into it equivalent present value. The difference between the present values of the benefits and 

costs in net present value of the project. A positive NPV is indicative of a project that will generate 

more benefits than costs to society. 

The NPV of an investment is given by the formula: 

!"# = ∑ 

' ( 

/ ( 

0 

− ∑0 

123 

(*+,) ( 123 

(*+,) ( [4.1] 

Where, 

NPV: Net Present value 

B t : Year t Benefits 

C t : Year t Costs 

r: Discount rate (propose to use 10%)) 

n: Expected life of the project 

Therefore, for each investment project or program (which can be composed of one or more 

specific projects), there is a need to generate a stream of benefits, a stream of costs, and a NPV 

as indicator of economic efficiency. 

Stream of benefits 

The economic benefits included in the economic evaluation of projects considered in the CNTMP 

are those that con be monetarily estimated with some degree of certainty and that cover the main 

economic benefits to the transport users: reductions in vehicle operating costs and reductions in 

travel time, that together conform the reduction in generalized transport costs. 

Other economic impacts on society, such as accident rate changes, environmental impacts and 

other indirect economic impacts, cannot be estimated, at the level of analysis of a national master 

plan, with acceptable degree of certainty and, therefore, were not included within the quantifiable 

economic benefits. These aspects have been included qualitatively in the multi-critera analysis 

below described. 

To generate the economic benefits, the transport model based on the final selected scenario will 

be used. (Appendix A describes the theory supporting the estimation of the economic benefits 

with the transport model). The steps to estimate the economic benefits are described below. 

Step 1: 

Estimate the generalized cost of the base scenario: 

Where, 

C = c 1+c 2+c 3+...+c m [4.2] 

c 1+c 2+c 3+...+c m: 

transport network. 

Generalized transport cost in arc 1, 2, 3,...,,m of the base scenario 




Step 2: 

Prepare the future investment projects and programs: 

S = s 1+s 2+s 3+...+s n [4.3] 

Where, 

s 1+s 2+s 3+...+s n: Investment projects and programs 1, 2, 3,…, n. 

Step 3: 

Modify the base case transport network with the future investment projects and programs, 

the selected scenario. 

Step 4: 

Estimate the generalized cost of the selected scenario: 

Where, 

Z = c 1+c 2+c 3+...+c m +z 1+z 2+z 3+...+z n [4.4] 

c 1+c 2+c 3+...+c m are the generalized costs of the base case arcs and z 1+z 2+z 3,,...,z n are the 

generalized costs of the new arcs. 

Step 5: 

Estimate the economic benefits of the overall future investments in the selected scenario_ 

Where, 

B = C – Z = S b i = b 1 + b 2 + b 3 + … + b n [4.5] 

b i = b 1 + b 2 + b 3 + … + b n are the economic benefits of investments s 1, s 2, s 3, …, s n 

respectively. 

Step 6: 

Estimate the generalized cost of the first set of investments projects and programs: 

Step 6a: Eliminate from the selected scenario transport network (base case plus investment 

programs and projects) the first set of investment programs and projects: 

S - s 1 = s 2+s 3+...+s n [4.6] 

Step 6b: Estimate the generalized cost of the selected scenario transport network minus 

the fits set of investments programs and projects: 

Z - z 1 = c 1+c 2+c 3+...+c m +z 2+z 3+...+z n [4.7] 

Step 6c: Estimate the economic Benefit of the first set of investment programs and projects: 

Step 7: 

b 1 = Z – (Z - z 1) = B - ∑0 

56* 4 5 = + b 2 + b 3 + … + b n [4.8] 

Repeat step 6 for the second set of investment programs and projects, third set of 

investment projects and programs, up to the last (n) set of investment programs and 

projects. 




Step 8: 

Repeat steps 1 to 7 for the other project years. To optimize model runs, the study team 

proposes to start with 2035 and afterwards do 2025 and 2020. The initial comparison of 

scenarios is proposed to be done for 2035 only. 

Step 9: 

Linearly interpolate between modelled years. 

The result of this process is a matrix of economic benefits, for each set of investment 

programs and projects, for each study year: 

b 0 1b 1 1b 2 1b 3 1......b t 1 

b 0 2b 1 2b 2 2b 3 2......b t 2 

b 0 3b 1 3b 2 3b 3 3......b t 3 

..... 

b 0 nb 1 nb 2 nb 3 n......b t n 

Stream of costs 

The stream of costs for each set of investment programs and projects is based on the estimated 

streams prepared by each modal expert, including initial investment costs and maintenance 

(routinely and periodic) costs, and any residual value at the end of the project life. 

The result of this process is a matrix of costs (one for financial costs and one for economic costs), 

for each set of investment programs and projects, for each study year: 

c 0 1c 1 1c 2 1c 3 1......c t 1 

c 0 2c 1 2 c 2 2c 3 2......c t 2 

C =c 0 3c 1 3c 2 3c 3 3......c t 3 

..... 

c 0 nc 1 nc 2 nc 3 n......c t n 

Economic indicators 

The purpose of generate economic indicators of projects is to identify the projects that contribute 

most to the country’s economic wellbeing, in terms of generalized transport cost reductions per 

unit of invested resources. Possible economic indicators include: 

n 

n 

n 

Net present value (NPV) 

Annual equivalent value (AEV) 

Internal rate of return (IRR) 

Net Present Value (NPV): 

The NPV (see formula [4.1]) is the most commonly used economic performance indicator to 

decide on pass or no pass of projects. If the NPV is zero or positive, the project is accepted, if it 

is below zero, it is rejected. 

Annual Equivalent Value (AEV): 

To estimate the NPV, the annual flows of benefits and costs are expressed in their equivalent 

present value, discounted at the rate that reflects society’s value of money over time (i.e., the 

society´s value to forgone consumption today to consume in the future). Equally, any present 




value can be expressed in equivalent annual amounts during the life of the project. Therefore, the 

AEV uniformly distributes the NPV during the life of the project. The below formula [4.9] shows 

the relationship between NPV and AEV: 

78# = 

Where: 

9:;∗, 

> 

[4.9] 

*= 

(>?@) A 

AEV: Annual Equivalent Value 

NPV: Net Present value 

r: Discount rate (propose to use 12%)) 

n: Expected life of the project 

This indicator is useful when there is a need to compare alternative projects with different project 

life. With the economic indicator, the project with a higher AEV should be chosen 

To clarify the above concepts, let´s assume that there are two options to build a road, one with 

flexible asphalt or with concrete asphalt with the following characteristics and economic 

indicators: 

Alternative Life NPV AEV 

Flexible 10 years $ 10.000 $ 1.627 

Concrete 20 years $ 12.000 $ 1.409 

As noted, the concrete asphalt option has a higher NPV, but double the useful life than the flexible 

asphalt option and, thus double the time to produce benefits. Given that the alternatives have 

different life-spans, the NPV is not the adequate indicator to compare the alternative due to the 

bias introduced by the different life-spans. In the example, the concrete asphalt option produces 

a lower annual benefit and, therefore, the flexible asphalt should be preferred. 

The AEV is an adequate indicator when comparing options of the same project. It is less useful 

when comparing or ranking projects due to the bias introduced by the size of projects (AEV would 

tend to prefer bigger projects with high AEV overall smaller projects). 

Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR): 

The IRR is defined as the discount rate that, when applied to the stream of benefits and costs, 

generates a NPV equal to zero. This, the EIRR is the “r” that satisfies the below equation: 

0 

' ( 

!"# = ∑123 − ∑ 

(*+,) ( 123 = 0 

(*+,) ( [4.10] 

0 

The estimation of EIRR requires the solution of a polynomial equation, which can be complex 

depending on the stream of benefits and costs, although current spread sheets incorporate a IRR 

routine that estimates it through an interactive process. 

With this economic indicator, projects with higher EIRR are preferred to projects with lower IRR: 

Because of its intuitive simplicity and wide use, the EIRR is the preferred economic indicator to 

assist with the ranking of projects. 

Notwithstanding the above preference for the EIRR, the evaluator should be aware of its 

deficiencies. First, given that it is a solution to a polynomial of a grade equal to the project´s lifespan 

(n), there can be multiple real solutions, positives or negatives, and even complex solutions. 

In general, it is possible to have multiple solutions if there are more than one change of sing in 

Preparation for a Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan for Belize Page A-176 

/ (



the stream of benefits (for example, with high periodic investments). Second, the EIRR criteria 

assumes that the liberated funds (for projects with short life-spans) are reinvested at the same 

rate of return (the EIRR), whist is more logical to assume that these are reinvested at opportunity 

discount rate of the investor. Third, there can be a bias towards smaller, short life-span projects 

but with high EIRR, instead of bigger and longer life-span projects with positive but lower IRR but 

that can be more attractive to the investor. Because of these limitations, the overall evaluation 

and ranking of projects includes a multi-criteria assessment, in addition to the economic 

assessment. 




APPENDIX A: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE ESTIMATION OF 

ECONOMIC BENEFITS 

In general, with each programs and project included in the CNMTP, as in any other infrastructure 

transport project, the following two group of beneficiaries can be identified: 

I. Users of other roads and transport links. The demand curve for other roads and 

transport links shifts down, from D 0 a to D 1 a, consequence of the attraction effect of the 

program/project (see Figure 1.b). These other road and transport link users can be divided into 

the following two subgroups: 

1) Users who would be willing to use the other roads and links even if the program/project is 

not implemented. In Figure 1.b those users correspond to T 2 a trips, that is, users willing 

to pay the existing price - generalized transport costs, operating costs and value of time 

costs – of C 0 a. The benefits for those users are equal to the generalized transport cost 

reduction in other roads and links, to C 1 a, due to the reduced congestion in these other 

roads and links resulting from the diverted traffic to the program/project. In Figure 1.b, 

these benefits are equal to the rectangle DC 0 a * T 2 a, where DC 0 a = C 0 a – C 1 a. 

2) Users of other roads and links who are willing to use them only at their lower price C 1 a. In 

Figure 1.b, those users correspond to the induced trips T 1 a - T 2 a, and their benefits can be 

approximated by the triangle ½ DC 0 a * (T 1 a - T 2 a). 

The benefits to the users of other roads and links are commonly referred as system effects, 

since they reflect the benefits of the program/project over the overall transport system. In the 

case of the CNMTP, for the most part it can be assumed that those benefits will be negligible, 

for congestion in all roads and transport links is not an important issue. In terms of Figure 

1.b, no road/ transport link congestion is represented by a constant supply (marginal cost) 

curve over the relevant levels of trips, resulting in DC 0 a = 0 and, thus, the above benefits are 

inapplicable, as shown in Figure 1.c. 

II. Users of the program/project. The program/project is shown in Figure 1.a by a downward 

shift in the supply curve from S 0 b to S 1 b, reflecting reduced transport costs. However, the 

increased, year-round, accessibility and security provided by the new program/project, will 

result in an upward shift of the demand curve, showing the additional economic activity of the 

area impacted by the program/project that will be possible because of the improved transport 

conditions. Therefore, the users of the program/project can be divided into the following five 

subgroups: 

1) Users who would be willing to use the transport link even without the program/project. In 

Figure 1.a those users correspond to T 0 b trips, that is, users willing to pay the existing 

price - generalized transport costs – of C 0 b. The benefits for those users are equal to the 

generalized transport cost reduction, to C 1 b, due to improvements on the transport link. In 

Figure 1.a, these benefits are equal to the rectangle DC 0 b * T 0 b, where DC 0 b = C 0 b – C 1 b. 

2) Diverted users from other roads and transport links who were willing to pay the old, higher, 

price C 0 a, but now they prefer to use the improved program/project link. In Figure 1.b, 

which shows the demand and supply conditions on the other roads and transport links, 




this traffic corresponds to T 0 a – T 2 a. In Figure 1.a, which shows the demand and supply 

conditions on the program/project transport link, this traffic is a portion of the added trips 

due to the reduced price, over the initial demand curve D 0 b, equal to T 1 b – T 0 b. The benefits 

of these users can be estimated as the difference in their generalized transport costs: (T 0 a 

– T 1 a) * (C 0 a – C 1 b), or as noted below for subgroup 4). 

3) Diverted traffic from other roads and transport links who would have been willing to pay 

the lower price in the other roads C 1 a only, but prefer to use the improved program/project 

transport link. In Figure 1.b, which shows the demand and supply conditions on the other 

roads and transport links, this traffic corresponds to T 3 a – T 0 a. For the CNMTP, for the 

most cases it can be assumed that this traffic tends to zero, since there are no significant 

cost reductions over other roads generated by the project. 

4) Users who would not be willing to use the other roads and transport link even at their lower 

price C 1 a, or the program/project improved link, but are induced to use the program/project 

improved link because of its lower generalized transport costs. In Figure 1.a, these users 

correspond to the total added trips over the initial demand curve, minus the trips of the 

previous two subgroups: (T 1 b – T 0 b) - (T 3 a – T 1 a). 

The benefits of these users and the users of the subgroup 2) and 3) above can be 

approximated by the triangle ½ DC 0 b * (T 1 b – T 0 b). 

5) Users who would willing to use the program/project improved link only because of the 

added accessibility and year-round security provided by the improvements. In Figure 1.a, 

these users correspond to the total induced trips due to the shift in the demand curve: T 2 b 

– T 1 b. The benefits of these users are equal to their consumer surplus and correspond to 

area between the two demand curves and above C 1 b. 

From the above analysis of the CNMTP beneficiaries, the following conclusions are drawn: 

1. The systems effects, in terms of reduced congestion in other roads and transport links, and 

Type I benefits are, for the most part, unimportant and most of the benefits can be accounted 

for considering Type II benefits, the program/project trips only. 

2. For the existing users of the program/project link, Type II, subgroup 1) users, it is possible to 

project future traffic based on current tendencies and estimate their benefits. The demand 

and transport model prepared for the CNTMP is an adequate tool for estimating these benefits 

under alternative infrastructure development schemes. 

3. For the users attracted from existing roads and transport links, Type II, subgroup 2) users 

(considering subgroup 3) negligible), it is possible to project future traffic based on current 

tendencies and estimate the traffic shares of the existing roads and links and the 

program/project link, based on the demand model traffic assignment and generalized cost 

estimations, and estimate an approximation of their benefits based on existing (in other roads 

and transport links) and projected (with the program/project link improvements) generalized 

costs. 

4. For the induced traffic because of the lower price, users Type II, subgroups 4), the benefits of 

the induced traffic can be approximated as the consumer’s surplus (i.e., the triangle ½ DC 0 b * 

[T 1 b – T 0 b] of Figure 1.a). To do the estimation, the analyst needs to provide the induced traffic 

and the expected generalized cost reduction. The main difficulty arises from developing 

demand estimates that can differentiate between of the traffic induced by the lower 




generalized costs (Type II, subgroup 4 users) and the induced traffic by the added security 

and readability of the road (Type II, subgroup 5 users), since there is not enough information 

to calibrate such a demand model. Here, there are three alternative approaches: 

i) Use the producer’s surplus to estimate the benefits of the induced traffic. This 

approach is more complex, requiring data along the marginal cost curve, not available 

at this level of analysis and a full interactive transport/land use and economic activity 

model to estimate generated demand (i.e., sift in demand curve that will be dependent 

on the transport supply), and provides a full benefits estimation of the induced traffic. 

ii) 

iii) 

Assume that all induced traffic is due to the reduced generalized costs (i.e., there is 

no generated demand) and estimate the consumer surplus as previously described. 

This approach requires the estimation of the overall induced traffic and reduced 

generalized costs, and it would still underestimate the total benefits of the induced total 

traffic. 

Assume that there is no induced traffic (i.e., demand matrices remain the same for all 

supply scenarios). This approach is easy to apply, it underestimates the total benefits 

of the program/project and is the most conservative. For this approach, the 

project/program benefits are approximated by the total reduced generalized costs over 

the transport network generated by the program/project. 




Figure 1: 

Graphics of Expected Economic Benefits 

Generalized 

Costs 

S 0 b (marginal cost of an additional trip) 

S 1 b (marginal cost of an additional trip) 

C 0 b 

C 1 b 

D 1 b = fb (T 1 a, Tb, S 1 b) 

D 0 b = fb (T 1 a, Tb, S 0 b) 

T 0 b T 1 b T 2 b 

Figure 1.a – Program/project Link 

Trips 

Generalized 

Costs 

S 0 a (marginal cost of an additional trip) 

C 0 a 

C 1 a 

D 0 a = fa (Ta, T 0 b) 

D 1 a = fa (Ta, T 1 b) 

T 2 a T 1 a T 0 a T 3 a 

Trips 

Figure 1.b - Other Roads and Transport Links with Congestion 

Generalized 

Costs 

S 0 a (marginal cost of an additional trip) 

C 0 a = C 1 a 

D 0 a = fa (Ta, T 0 b) 

D 1 a = fa (Ta, T 1 b) 

T 2 a = T 1 a T 0 a 

Trips 

Figure 1.c - Other Roads and Transport Links without Congestion 




ANNEX 7: 

COST ESTIMATES 




Road costs 

Code 

Project 

Length 

(miles) Type Shoulders Standard 


Unit cost (M 

USD/mile) 2025 2035 2025 2035 2025 2035 

1 Widening of George Price Highway 79 Widening Yes HMA 0.04 2.77 2.77 2.77 

2 Widening of Hattieville – Boom Highway 12 Widening Yes HMA 0.04 0.42 0.42 0.42 

3 Widening of Orange Walk Bypass Highway 5 Widening Yes HMA 0.04 0.18 

4 Widening of Hummingbird Highway 54 Widening Yes HMA 0.04 1.89 1.89 

5 Widening of Southern Highway 101 Widening Yes HMA 0.04 3.54 2.80 

6 Chan Chen - San Pedro – (Corozal Bypass) 11 Paving Yes HMA 1.83 20.08 20.08 

7 San Esteban - Progreso 10 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 11.57 11.57 11.57 

8 Orange Walk - San Esteban 6 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 6.94 6.94 6.94 

9 Chunox - Sarteneja 17 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 19.67 19.67 19.67 

Progreso - Little Belize - Chunox (Chunox road 

10 from Progresso-san Estevan road!) 10 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 11.57 11.57 11.57 

11 Progreso - Copper Bank 6 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 6.94 6.94 6.94 

12 Copper Bank - Corozal Town 6 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 6.94 6.94 6.94 

13 Chunox - Copper Bank 3 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 3.47 3.47 3.47 

14 Cerros - Copper Bank 2 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 2.31 

15 Maskall - Bomba 4 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 4.63 4.63 4.63 

16 Carmelita - Maskall (old northern highway) 22 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 25.45 25.45 

17 Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) - Maskall - X miles 10 Rehabilitation No Chip & seal 0.00 0.0053 0.0053 0.0053 

18 Maskall - Nago Bank 2 Paving/New No Chip & seal 1.19 2.38 2.38 

19 Tower Hill - Guinea Grass - Shipyard - San Felipe 31 Paving/New No Chip & seal 1.19 36.87 

20 San Felipe - Shipyard - Lamanai 26 Paving/New No Chip & seal 1.19 30.92 

Bullet Tree Falls - Branch MoUth park bridge - 

21 Santa Familia - Spanish Lookout 13 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 15.04 15.04 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - Meditation 

22 Bridge 30 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 34.70 34.70 

23 San Antonio - Tripartite Junction 3 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 3.47 3.47 3.47 

24 Cristo Rey - San Antonio Road 6 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 6.94 6.94 6.94 

25 Santa Elena - Cristo Rey Road 4 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 4.63 4.63 4.63 

26 Georgeville - Tripartite Junction 9 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 10.41 10.41 10.41 




27 Roaring Creek - Valley of Peace 9 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 10.41 10.41 10.41 

28 Tripartite Junction - Caracol Road 36 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 41.64 41.64 41.64 

29 San Jose Road 12 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 13.88 13.88 


30 Columbia loop) 7 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 8.10 8.10 

31 Red Bank Village Road 5 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 5.78 

32 San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot 1 Paving No Chip & seal 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 

33 Lucky Strike (Altun ha) - Philip Goldson highway 11 New No HMA 1.79 19.70 

Guinea Grass Highway (Guinea Grass-Shipyard- 

Lamanai-Belmopan, including connection to San 

34 Felipe road) 68 New Yes HMA 1.83 124.16 

35 Lemonal - Lamanai 7 New No HMA 1.79 12.54 

36 Crooked Tree - Lamanai 14 New No HMA 1.79 25.07 25.07 

37 Benque Viejo - San Jose Bypass 6 Paving/new Yes HMA 1.83 10.96 10.96 

Total period 111.98 192.68 128.13 137.97 138.41 305.47 

Total Scenario 304.66 266.10 443.88 

Bridges Costs 

Bridge Length (ft) Wide (ft) Cost (US$) 

Caracol Road 380 33 3 267 290 

Laguna Seca 470 33 4 647 291 

Pueblo nuevo ferry 385 33 3 301 683 

Lamanai Crooked Tree 250 33 2 149 533 




Road unit costs (US$/mile) 

Pavement Shoulders Cost per line Cost per shoulder No. of lines Total Cost 

Chip Seal No $ 594 671 $ - 2 $ 1 189 343 

Chip Seal Si $ 594 671 $ 7 318 2 $ 1 203 979 

HMA No $ 895 418 $ - 2 $ 1 790 836 

HMA Si $ 895 418 $ 17 522 2 $ 1 825 879 

Chip Seal Only $ - $ 7 318 2 $ 14 637 

HMA Only $ - $ 17 522 2 $ 35 043 

Chip Seal No $ 951 474 $ 11 709 2 $ 1 926 367 




ANNEX 8: 

PROJECT SUMMARY SHEETS 




PROJECT SUMMARY SHEET 

No. 1. Sector 2. Project Title 3. Program 

1 Roads George Price Highway Widening 


Safety 

4. Implementing agency 5. Sources of funds 6. Term 

MOW § Public / IFI Medium 

7. Rough breakdown of preliminary project 

costs 

8. Implementation schedule 

§ Item1/1 year 100 % of 

§ Total 5,536,831 BZD cost 

§ Commencement of service 2025 

9. Project outline/summary 

Widening of crown to 36 feet of 79 miles of the highways’ primary network. 

10. Project prioritization (multi-critera analysis 

results) 

1/13 

11. Project justification 12. Expected project benefits 

Level of Service of this section is B; for safety of 

users, highways should have shoulders, to allow 

vehicles to layby 

Lower VOC, lower travel time, reduction of risk 

of accidents 

13. Objectives 14. Indicators of achievements 

Upgrade connectivity between Belize City and 

Guatemala Border and improve road safety 

15. Beneficiaries (communities/population 

benefited) and impacted communities 

Direct impacted population in 2025: 88,581 

Total impacted population in 2025: 222,935 

Income: 

Freetown Sibun: 467,782 

More Tomorrow: 431,734 

La Democracia/ Churchyard: 1,587,582 

Arenal/ Macaw Bank: 1,514,015 

Calla Creek: 1,673,771 

Level of Service (LOS): A 

Social Rate of Return > 

16. Impacts to the environment 

(natural/social) and to climate change 

resilience and adaptation 

This highway has no impact in Mayan or 

Terrestrial Protected areas 

The widening of the highway will have a positive 

impact in increasing the robustness of the 

primary road network 

17. Project area 18. Location map/site photo 

Belize and Cayo Districts 

19. Project risks 20. Risks mitigations 

1. Lack of resources for widening 

2. Increase of vehicle speed and accidents 

3. Lack of knowledge of HMA pavement 

technology 

4. Lack of right of way for widening 

1. Secure funds before 2025 

2. Implementation of Road Safety Project 

3. Implement an international bid binding 

the projects with local companies 

4. Define legal approach of right of way 






2 Roads 

Hattieville – Boom Highway 


Safety 

4. Implementing agency 

5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW Public/IFI Medium 


costs 



§ Total 841,038 BZ cost 





results) 

1/13 


For safety of users, highways should have 

shoulders to allow vehicles to layby 

Lower VOC, lower travel time, reduction of 

risk of accidents 


Upgrade connection between Philip SW Goldson 

Highway and George Price Highway 







Income: 


Scotland Halfmoon/ Flower Bank: 4,025,320 

Mahogany Heights: 6,926,349 






The widening of the highway will have a 

positive impact in increasing the robustness of 

the primary road network 


Belize District 





technology 












3 Roads 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) – Philip SW 

Goldson 

Adding Road Sections 

& Bridges to the 

National Road Network 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW Public Long 


costs 

§ Total 37,017,215 

BZD 



cost 



Upgrade to Chip & Seal of 16 miles of the secondary roads’ network 


results) 

10/13 


As a dirt road within a touristic area, it presents a Lower VOC, lower travel time, reduction of 

high IRR in most of its sections, affecting VOC of risk of accidents, reduction of reconstructions 

vehicles. 

for major maintenance 


Improve access to touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 

London: 1,081,486 

Scotland Halfmoon/ Flowers Bank: 4,025,320 







Belize and Orange Walk 

Districts 


1. Increase of traffic combined with weather 

conditions could led to pavement’s surface 

damage 

1. Monitoring of conditions to give the 

maintenance required on time 






4 Roads 

Chan Chen – San Pedro Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW Public Medium 


costs 


§ Total 40,169,346 

BZD 


cost 



Upgrade to HMA of 11 miles of the secondary roads’ network, and incorporate it to the highway’s 

primary network as bypass for Corozal 


results) 

4/13 


As a dirt road within an agricultural area, it presents 

a high IRR in most of its sections, affecting VOC of 

freight vehicles. 




Improve access to main agricultural areas Social Rate of Return > 








Income: 

Consejo: 1,845,301 

Chan Chen: 1,885,487 

Patchakan: 3,299,247 




Corozal Districts 


1. Lack of resources for upgrading to HMA 



technology 










5 Roads 

Chunox - Litle Belize - Progreso - San 

Estevan - Orange Walk 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 

§ Total 60,152,975 

BZD 



cost 





results) 

7/13 


As a dirt road within an agricultural area, it presents Lower VOC, lower travel time, reduction of risk 

a high IRR in most of its sections, affecting VOC of of accidents, reduction of reconstructions for 

freight vehicles. 

major maintenance 


Improve access to main agricultural areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 

London: 1,081,486 

Consejo: 1,845,301 

Chan Chen: 1,885,487 

San Pedro: 3,415,164 







Corozal and Orange Walk 

District 




damage 








6 Roads 

Roaring Creek – Valley of Peace Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 20,822,184 

BZD 


cost 





results) 

3/13 



As a dirt road within a touristic area, it presents a risk of accidents, reduction of reconstructions 

high IRR in most of its sections, affecting VOC of 


vehicles. 


Improve access to main touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 


St. Mathews: 6,312,426 







Cayo District 




damage 








7 Roads 






5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW § Public Medium 


costs 








results) 



As a dirt road within a touristic area, it presents a risk of accidents, reduction of reconstructions 

high IRR in most of its sections, affecting VOC of 


vehicles. 

6/13 


Improve access to main touristic and agricultural 

areas 






Income: 

London: 1,081,486 






Together with the pier in Bomba, it creates a 

redundancy for provision of goods to San 

Pedro 


Belize Districts 




damage 








8 Roads 






5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 








results) 

6/13 



As a dirt road within an agricultural and touristic risk of accidents, reduction of reconstructions 

areas, it presents a high IRR in most of its sections, 


affecting VOC of freight vehicles. 


Improve access to main touristic and agricultural 

areas 






Income: 

London: 1,081,486 






Together with the pier in Bomba, it creates a 

redundancy for provision of goods to San 

Pedro 


Belize Districts 




damage 








9 Roads 

Lucky Strike (Altun Ha) – Maskall Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 6,625 BZD 

(Additional to major maintenance) 


cost 





results) 

6/13 



As a dirt road within an agricultural and touristic risk of accidents, reduction of reconstructions 

areas, it presents a high IRR in most of its sections, 


affecting VOC of vehicles. 


Improve access to main touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 

Orange Walk: 1,081,486 

Belize: 4,025,320 









1. Increase of traffic volume combined with 

weather conditions could led to pavement’s 

surface damage 








10 Roads 

Southern Highway 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW Public/IFI Medium 


costs 








results) 

2/13 



shoulders, to allow vehicles to layby 




Upgrade connectivity between central and southern 

Districts 





Income: 

Laguna (Machaca Forest): 795,444 

Lagans Bank: 1,152,524 

Gales Point: 1,423,651 

Midways/ Barranco: 1,440,616 






This highway has no impact in Mayan Zones 

but borders them, and it crosses several miles 

of Terrestrial Protected Areas but this project 

does not require an additional environmental 

impact. 





Stann Creek and Toledo 

Districts 





technology 












11 Roads 

Hummingbird Highway 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW Public / IFI Medium 


costs 








results) 

2/13 




Lower VOC, lower travel time, reduction of risk 

of accidents 







Upgrade connectivity between central and southern 

Districts 





Income: 


La Democracia/ Chirchyard: 2,329,399 

South Stann Creek/ Kendall: 6,819,937 

This highway has no impact in Mayan Zones, 

however it crosses several miles of Terrestrial 

Protected Areas, but this project does not 

require an additional environmental impact. 





Cayo, Belize and Stann Creek 

Districts 





technology 












12 Roads 

Guinea Grass Highway 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW Public / IFI Long 


costs 


§ Total 204,498,490 

BZD 


cost 


cost 



New HMA highway with 79 miles for the primary network 


results) 

12/13 


Current main network is insufficient for connectivity 

within the country, this new highway will allow 

vehicles an additional route to Belmopan and will 

connect with the south through the new Manatee 

Highway. 




Upgrade connectivity between Belmopan and 

Mexico Border; provide additional routes to the 

network; connect agricultural and touristic areas 



Inhabitants of Cayo, Orange Walk and Corozal at 

it will create a direct connexion without needing to 

go to Belize City. 






however it crosses several miles of Terrestrial 

Protected Areas. 

The new axis creates a major redundancy to 

the road network. 


Cayo and Orange Walk 

Districts 


1. Lack of resources for paving with HMA 



technology 










13 Roads 

Crooked Tree – Lamanai – San Felipe Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



cost 


cost 



New 22 miles of Chip & Seal Road for the secondary network 

§ Total 52,331,087 

BZD 


results) 

10/13 


This new rural road will allow vehicles an additional 

route for agricultural products transport and the 

access to touristic areas. 




Upgrade connectivity between touristic and 

agricultural areas 





Income: 






This project is within a Mayan Area, but does 

not impact Terrestrial Protected areas 



Districts 


1. Lack of resources for paving 














14 Roads 

Jalacte Road 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 






Widening of crown to 36 feet of 23 miles of the highways’ primary network and revision of curves. 


results) 

2/13 




risk of accidents, reduction of reconstructions 




Upgrade connectivity between Belize City and 

Guatemala Border 





Income: 


Midway/ Barranco: 1,440,616 

Corazon Creek/ Dolores: 2,200,161 






This project is within a Mayan Area, but does 

not impact Terrestrial Protected areas 


Toledo District 





technology 












15 Roads 






5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



cost 




§ Total 39,330,791 

BZD 


5/13 

results) 



Income: 

Consejo: 2,415,238 

Chan Chen: 2,467,835 

Patchakan: 4,318,248 




The road presents a high IRR in most of its sections, 












Population of Sarteneja (2,000 inhabitants) 


however it crosses a Private Protected Area. 


Corozal Districts 












16 Roads 

Progreso -Copper Bank 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 13,881,456 

BZD 


cost 





results) 

7/13 














Income: 

Consejo: 2,415,238 

Chan Chen: 2,467,835 

San Pedro: 4,469,967 






however it crosses Terrestrial Protected 

Areas. 


Corozal District 



weather conditions could lead to 

pavement’s surface damage 








17 Roads 

Copper Bank - Corozal Town Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



cost 




§ Total 20,822,184 

BZD 


results) 







5/13 








Income: 

Consejo: 2,415,238 

Chan Chen: 2,467,835 





This project has no impact in Mayan Zones, 


Areas. 














18 Roads 

Carmelita - Maskall 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 50,898,671 

BZD 


cost 





results) 







6/13 








Income: 

London: 1,463,362 





This project has no impact in Mayan or 




Districts 












19 Roads 

Spanish Lookout - Valley of Peace - 

Meditation 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 

§ Total 92,543,038 

BZD 



cost 





results) 

3/13 














Income: 









This road is part of the axis Bullet Tree Falls – 

Meditation which creates a major redundancy 

for agricultural goods in the region of Cayo. 


Cayo District 












20 Roads 

Bullet Tree Falls - Spanish Lookout Adding Road 


to the National Road 

Network 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 20,822,184 

BZD 


cost 





results) 

3/13 


















Income: 

Arena/ Macaw Bank: 1,945,815 


Santa Familia: 6,341,382 



This road is part of the axis Bullet Tree Falls – 

Meditation which creates a major redundancy 

for agricultural goods in the region of Cayo. 


Cayo District 












21 Roads 






5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 11,567,880 

BZD 


cost 





results) 

9/13 








Upgrade connectivity with touristic and agricultural 

areas 






Income: 

Logans Bank: 1,152,524 

Trio/ Hospital: 4,589,627 







Areas. 


Stann Creek District 












22 Roads 

San Jose Road 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 

§ Total 27,762,912 

BZD 



cost 





results) 

9/13 








Upgrade connectivity with main touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 








Income: 

Sunday Wood: 2,592,212 

San Marcos: 2,515,627 

This project is within a Mayan Zone, and a 

Terrestrial Protected Area. 














23 Roads 

San Miguel Road 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 

§ Total 20,822,184 

BZD 



cost 





results) 

9/13 








Upgrade connectivity with main touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 


Midway/ Barrancho: 1,440,616 



















24 Roads 






5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 








results) 

5/13 








Upgrade connectivity with main agricultural areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 

Consejo: 2,415,238 

Chan Chen: 2,467,835 






Areas. 














25 Roads 

Gardenia - Isabella Bank - Big Falls - 

Jhin Cahan 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 

§ Total 71,720,855 

BZD 



cost 





results) 

11/13 








Upgrade connectivity with main agricultural areas 

Social Rate of Return 





Income: 






This project has no impact in Mayan Zones or 

Terrestrial Protected Areas. 














26 Roads 

Bartoon Creek Farm Road Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 








results) 

8/13 













Income: 








however it crosses a Terrestrial Protected 

Area. 


Cayo District 












27 Roads 






5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 








results) 

8/13 













Income: 









Area. 


Cayo District 












28 Roads 






5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 18,508,608 

BZD 


cost 





results) 

8/13 













Income: 


Valley of Peace: 10,464,396 

San Antonio: 11,381,040 






Area. 


Cayo District 












29 Roads 

Jacintoville – Santa Ana - Barranco Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 39,330,791 

BZD 


cost 





results) 

9/13 













Income: 


Midway/ Baranco: 1,440,616 

Corazon Creek/Dolores: 2,200,161 

Sunday Wood: 2,592,212 



















30 Roads 

Mafredi – Santa Teresa – San Benito Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 


§ Total 57,839,399 

BZD 


cost 





results) 

9/13 
















Income: 


Midway/ Baranco: 1,440,616 

Corazon Creek/Dolores: 2,200,161 
















31 Roads 

San Pedro - Caribbean Queen Depot Adding Road Sections 




5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 






Upgrade to HMA of 2 miles of the secondary roads’ network 


results) 

4/13 







Upgrade connectivity within main touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 








Income: 

Caye Caulker: 21,950,210 

San Pedro: 212,305,861 




San Pedro, Belize District 





technology 










32 Roads 

San Felipe - Blue Creek - Gallon Jug 

Private Reserve 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW § None Dropped 


costs 

§ Total 197,194,973 

BZD 



cost 

§ Item 2/2 year 40 % of 

cost 

§ Commencement of service Dropped 


New HMA highway with 79 miles for the primary network 


results) 

13/13 


Current main network is insufficient for connectivity 

within the country, this new highway will allow 

vehicles an additional route to Belmopan and will 

connect with the south through the new Manatee 

Highway. 




Upgrade connectivity between Belmopan and 

Mexico Border; provide additional routes to the Social Rate of Return > 

network; connect agricultural and touristic areas 







however it crosses a Private Protected Area. 


Cayo and Orange Walk 

Districts 





technology 










33 Roads 

Caracol Road Bridge 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW § Public / IFI Long 


costs 



§ Total $6,534,581 BZD 

cost 

§ Commencement of service 


Construction of new bridge to connect Coracol Road 


results) 

NA 


Currently the connection of the road is made by a 

ferry 

Lower travel time 


Connect touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 









Cayo District 


1. Lack of resources for building the bridge 1. Secure funds before 2035 






34 Roads 

Laguna Seca Bridge 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW § Public Long 


costs 



§ Total $9,294,581 BZD cost 



Construction of new bridge to connect Corozal, Chunox, and Sarteneja 


results) 

NA 



ferry 



Connect main agricultural areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 

Consejo: 2,415,238 

Chan Chen: 2,467,835 

San Pedro: 4,469,967 






The construction of the bridge in combination 

with the upgrade of the road will highly 

increase the robustness of road network in 

the area as today a ferry is used to cross the 

lagoon. 










35 Roads 

Plueblo Nuevo Bridge 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



§ Total $6,603,366 BZD cost 



Construction of new bridge to connect Corozal, Chunox, and Sarteneja 


results) 

NA 



ferry 



Connect main agricultural areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 

Consejo: 2,415,238 

Chan Chen: 2,467,835 

San Pedro: 4,469,967 






The construction of the bridge in combination 

with the upgrade of the road will highly 

increase the robustness of road network in 

the area as today a ferry is used to cross the 

river 










36 Roads 

Lamanai Bridge 





5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



§ Total 4,299,066 BZD 

cost 



Construction of new bridge to connect Lamani Archeological Site, San Felipe and Shipyard with the 

Philip SW Goldson Highway 


results) 

NA 


Se segregation of this area is due to the lack of a 

shorter route with the main highway. 



Connect main agricultural and touristic areas Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 








Orange Walk District 








37 Roads Silver Creek 1 Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW 

OFID to fund 

replacement 

structure. 

Medium 


costs 




cost 



Increase wide of bridges to 36 feets 


results) 

NA 


Substandard Geometry. 



Connect main highways Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 


La Democracia/ Chirchyard: 2,329,399 








Cayo and Stann Creek District 








38 Roads Joe Taylor Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



§ Total 

cost 



Increase wide of bridge to 36-feet of crown to align with the George Price Highway width 


results) 

NA 


Poor Condition/ One Lane 



Connect main highways Social Rate of Return > 





Income: 











Belize and Cayo District 








39 Roads Small Bridge entering Benque Viejo Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



§ Total 

cost 



Construction of new bridge for the George Price Highway, entering Benque Viejo 


results) 

NA 


Substandard Geometric Width (1 1/2 lane) near 


junction approach to Benque. 


Connect main highways 


LOS: A 








Income: 
















40 Roads MoUnt Pleasant Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



§ Total 

cost 





results) 

NA 


Replacement of existing Bridge. Needs elevated 


and enhance hydraulic capacity since it’s on a 

major evacuation route. 




LOS: A 








Income: 
















41 Roads Hector Creek Bridge - Hattieville Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW 

Long 


costs 




cost 





results) 


Hydraulic Capacity needs to be enhanced. Bridge 

subject to flooding and it’s on a major evacuation 

route. 





LOS: A 








Income: 
















42 Roads Little Golden Stream Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW 

Long 


costs 



§ Total 

cost 



Increase wide of bridge to 36-feet of crown to align with the Southern Highway width 


results) 


Flood prone 





LOS: A 





Income: 



















43 Roads Jacintoville Bridge Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 



§ Total 

cost 



Increase wide of bridge to 36-feet of crown to align with the Southern Highway width 


results) 

NA 


Flood prone 





LOS: A 





Income: 



















44 Roads Calla Creek Bridge Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

MOW § Public Medium 


costs 




cost 



New Bridge 


results) 

NA 


Needs high-level two-lane bridge to allow vehicular 

crossing. 





LOS: A 



Income 2025: 







Even if the road to Calla Creek will still need 

upgrading the bridge will help to better face 

floods of the Mopan River 


Cayo District 








45 Roads Iguana Creek Bridge Bridge Replacement 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 



costs 




cost 



New bridge to higher the level of current access 


results) 

NA 


High level bridge replacement required to enable all 

weather access to Spanish Lookout 





LOS: A 









Cayo District 








Build yards and workshops for 

46 Public Transport parking and bus maintenance B1 


Medium 

N/A 

§ Private bus companies 

Term 



costs 

§ Design / workshops 200,000BZD 

§ Design 4 months 

§ Construction / workshops / parking 

§ Construction 9 months 

4,000,000BZD 


§ Part of the modernization of the public transport implies changes of bus technologies, with the 

incorporation of recent / new buses 

§ One to three formal bus companies will operate on each corridor, operating dozens of buses 

§ Workshops need to be built to perform the maintenance of those new buses and yards should be 

developed to park the buses at the end of the service 


results) 

NA 


§ New buses have new technology and part of 

the no-renewal buses problem is due to the 

change of technology between old buses 

(more than 20 years) and recent one. 

§ Older buses have few electronic components, 

while “newer” ones require investment in the 

more modern maintenance facilities to 

accommodate, among others, electronic 

monitoring equipment and different engine 

maintenance. 

§ Currently, small company’s maintenance is 

carried out by unqualified persons, and 

sometimes by the drivers themselves, as 

mechanical systems and engines are relatively 

simple. It will be different with the new buses 

§ Incorporation of new/recent buses, 

improvement of the quality of service and 

comfort of public transport 

§ Mayor reliability of buses 

§ Mayor security of buses 

§ Less consuming and less polluting 

§ Decrease of operating costs 


§ Determinate the location for the new 

workshops and parking 

§ Build workshops on strategic locations, taking § Bus companies should obtain funding 

into account the operation needs 

sources to build the workshop 

§ Start with preventive maintenance practice § Design 

§ Construction 

§ Start of operation in the expected period 



§ Part of the modernization of public transport, 

benefits for the overall pubic transport users 

and possibility of modal change once the 

overall actions of modernization of public 

transport will be implemented. Actual daily trips 

in public transport of , beneficiaries X persons 




§ Reducing of contamination: reduction of 

CO2 of almost 40% per mile due to new / 

recent buses 

§ Reducing in fuel consumption of almost 

§ Reducing of others contaminating: 94% 

NOX (from 7 g/kWk) to 0.45 g/kw/h) 




§ Future daily trip estimated for 2025 including 

modal change , and for 2035 

§ Reduction of CO of 62% de 4g/kWh to 

1.5g/kWh 


§ Workshop and parking to be installed at the 

beginning and/or end of services, possible 

location: 

- Belize City 

- Benque Viejo 

§ Different locations per corridors 

- San Ignacio 

- Corozal 

- Punta Gorda 

- Independence 


§ If low control of bus companies by the 

authorities, risk that some companies does not 

respect the new standards of operation, 

creating distortion on the competition 

§ If there is no conformation of bus companies 

and improvement of operation, risk that bus 

companies won’t have the resources to build 

that new facilities 

§ It is expected that part of the additional 

investment in more modern maintenance 

facilities will be compensated by reduction 

in bus fuel consumption due to the new 

buses that will be incorporated 

§ Change on length of concession from 2 

years to 8 to 10 years if public transport 

companies complies with the new regulation 

and standards of operation should 

guarantee return on investment 

§ Bus companies will operate more buses, 

generating economy of scale 

§ Possibility of inversion of modal change, 

from PT to cars to Cars to PT 




No. 


1. Sector 

47 Public Transport 

2. Project Title 3. 

Progra 

m 

Renewed / build bus terminals in all 

main cities 2nd phase: Belize City – 

B2 

Belmopan – San Ignacio 



§ PPP 

Medium 

Term 


costs 


§ Feasibility 100,000 BZD § Feasibility 3 months 

§ Design 7 Procurement 225,000BZD § Design y procurement 6 to 9 months 

§ Construction 3,000,000BZD § Construction 12 months 


§ Following the project of a new terminal at the entrance of Belize, expected on short term, on Lake 

Independence Boulevard, led by Belize Infrastructure Limited, other main terminals of the western 

corridor need to be renewed (Belmopan) or build (San Ignacio, Benque Viejo). 

§ The western corridor is the one that carried the most passengers in Belize 

§ This program in coordination with the modernization of fleet, conformation of public transport 

companies and professionalization of services will be part of the overall public transport 

modernization 

§ The public transport modernization purpose is to revert the actual modal slpit between public 

transport to cars 


results) 


§ Buses tend to park on-street around bus 

terminals 

§ Bus terminals are producing disorder due to 

the lack of capacity / bad operation / few 

regulation 

§ Private bus companies are building some new 

bus terminals – services are not concenterd in 

one point 

§ Bus terminal will help to organize the feeder 

services and other modes of public transport 

§ It will offer services, restaurants, snack, others 

§ It will offer good conditions of waiting 

§ Improved quality of service of public 

transport 

§ Offer good condition of waiting 

§ Removing bus staging and parking around 

the terminals 

§ This will lead to a more attractive “center” 

for Belmopan and order in San Ignacio and 

Benque Viejo 

§ Provide services inside the bus terminal 

§ Security inside and around the terminal 


§ Evaluate new location or possibility of 

improvement for Belmopan bus terminal 

§ Evaluate terminal site for new terminals in 

Benque Viejo and San Ignacio (does not exist 

today) 

§ Design the station superficies and organization 

taking into account pax volumes, number of 

docks in relation of bus volumes, number of 

dock for feeder, parking 

§ Defined the APP schemes, taking into account 

the feedback of Belize City bus terminal : 

- DBB + OM + MRC (Conventional delivery + 

multiple retail concessions) 

§ Technical and socio-economic feasibility 

study (feasibility) 

§ Determinate if the actual location is 

adequate or if there is a need of relocation 

§ Determinate a location for San Ignacio and 

Benque Viejo 

§ Obtaining funding sources / feasibility of 

PPP schemes 

§ Final design approval 






- DB + EW + RC (Design, Build + extended 

warranty + retail concessions) 

- DBFOM (Design, Build, Finance, Operate & 

Maintain + Private Financing ) 

§ Evaluate if it is better to launch individual bid or 

a bid for the 3 main stations of the western 

corridors 



§ Forecast of 12,600 trips generated o attracted 

in Belmopan for 2025, 4,500 trips from/to San 

Ignacio and 3,100 trips from/to Benque Viejo. 

§ Western corridor 

§ Terminals on the Belize City – Benque Viejo 

corridor 




§ Safety by controlling the operation of buses 

§ Safety inside and outside the terminal 

§ Better connection with feeder – reduction 

off travel time 

§ Better waiting conditions 


§ Location to be defined in Belmopan, San 

Ignacio and Benque Viejo 


§ Mandatory use of bus terminals 

§ Institutionalization of: 

- Terminal user fees (already in the 

transport act) 

- Parking/staging fees 

§ If low control of bus operations by the 

authorities, risk of staging / parking outside of 

bus terminals 

§ Incomes based on traffic passengers or buses 

using the station as well as retail concession. 

Investment need to have guarantees that 

buses will operate from the bus terminal, if not 

loss of pax, loss of retail opportunities and loss 

of number of buses using daily the terminal. 

§ In medium term, public transport should be 

operating by formal companies and new 

infrastructure will be part of the overall 

operation 




No. 


1. Sector 



Progra 

m 


main cities: 3rd phase Belize City – 

Orange Walk – Corozal 



§ PPP 

Medium 

Term 


costs 



§ Design / Procurement 225,000BZD § Design y procurement 6 to 9 months 



§ As the third phase of the project of renewing the bus terminal, following the project of the new 

terminal of Belize City (first phase) and the project of modernization / construction of terminals in 

Belmopan, San Ignacio, Benque Viejo, other main terminals of the northern corridor need to be 

renewed in Corozal and Orange Walk. 

§ The northern corridor is the second one that carried the most passengers in Belize 


company and professionalization of services will be part of the overall public transport 

modernization 

§ The public transport modernization purpose is to revert the actual modal change between public 



results) 



terminals 

§ Bus terminals are causing disorder due to the 

lack of capacity / bad operation 



one point 




B2 


transport 



the terminals 




§ Evaluate new location or possibility of 

improvement for Corozal and Orange Walk 






the feedback of Belize City bus terminal: 








study 


terminals 


PPP schemes 








a bid for the 2 main stations of the northern 

corridors 



§ Forecast of 7,700 trips generated o attracted in 

Orange Walk for 2025, 5,000 trips from/to 

Corozal. 










§ Location to be defined in Orange Walk and 

§ Terminals on the Belize City – Corozal corridor 

Corozal 









bus terminals 





loss of pax, loss of retail opportunities and loss 

of number of buses using daily the terminal. 




operation 




No. 


1. Sector 



Progra 

m 


main cities 4rd phase Belize City – 

B2 

Dangriga – Placencia – Punta Gorda 



§ PPP 

Medium 

Term 


costs 



§ Design / Procurement 187,500BZD § Design y procurement 6 to 9 months 



§ As the fourth phase of the project of renewing the bus terminal, following the project of the new 

terminal of Belize City (first phase) and the project of modernization / construction of terminals in 

Belmopan, San Ignacio, Benque Viejo, Orange Walk, Corozal, other terminals of the southern 

corridor need to be build: Dangriga, Placencia and Punta Gorda. 

§ The southern corridor is the third one that carried the most passengers in Belize 


company and professionalization of services will be part of the overall public transport 

modernization 

§ The public transport modernization purpose is to revert the actual modal slpit between public 



results) 



terminals 

§ Bus terminals are causing disorder due to the 

lack of capacity / bad operation 



one point 





transport 



the terminals 




§ Evaluate the location of the new terminals 






the feedback of Belize City bus terminal: 






study 


terminals 


PPP schemes 










a bid for the 3 main stations of the southern 

corridors 



§ Forecast of 5,100 trips generated o attracted in 

Dangriga for 2025, 1,000 trips from/to 

Placencia and 3,500 trips from/to Punta 

Gorda. 










§ Location to be defined in Dangriga, 

§ Terminals on the Belize City – Punta Gorda 

Placencia and Punta Gorda 

corridor 









bus terminals 





loss of pax, loss of retail opportunities 




operation 




No. 


1. Sector 



Progra 

m 

Water taxis development program 

W1 



§ Public investment 

Medium 

Term 


costs 


§ Vista del Mar Water Taxis terminal: 1,000,000 

§ New service between PGIIA and Caye 

BZD 

Caulker – San Pedro – 2022 

§ Bomba pier: 2,000,000 BZD including dredging 

§ Punta Gorda Marina Pier : 2023 

§ Sarteneja marina/pier: 700,000 BZD 

§ Sarteneja Marina Pier: 2024 

§ Punta Gorda marina/pier: 700,000 BZD 

§ Bomba Pier: 2025 


To promote the tourism sector, some new routes may be developed such as Philipp Gordon International 

Airport to Caye Caulker and San Pedro. This service may reduce the time and cost of travel in relation 

with the actual Water taxi option based in the Center of Belize City. 

Punta Gorda Marina Peer: improve the peer. Daily connection to Guatemala, Puerto Barrios and 2 times 

a week connection to Livingston. 

Sarteneja Marina Pier: Improve the peer: connection to Chetumal and San Pedro. 

Bomba is a small Village inside the forest on the Northisde river. There is some ecoturistic activities and 

some water taxis charter offer services from San Pedro. It is also use to deliver agricultural products 

from this Central Zone to San Pedro Market. 


results) 

NA 


PGIA – San Pedro service 

§ Lots of tourism are coming from the airport to 

the Center of Belize City to take a Water Taxi, 

reaching the Center in at least half an hour and 

at a cost of 22 USD in taxi. 

§ It exists a sea access at 5 km from the airport 

where Water Taxi may offer new service with 

an organize and shuttle from the airport. 

Other docks: improved infrastructure to improve 

operation, safety and capacity to follow the growing 

expecting demand. 

For Bomba, create better operational condition to 

increase agricultural goods movement to San 

Pedro. 

PGIA to San Pedro: 

§ Easy access 

§ Less time and cost 

Other docks: safety, higher capacity, better 

experience of travel 

Bomba: improved the capacity of agricultural 

goods movement. Reduce operating cost and 

better competitiveness of Bomba – Maskall 

agricultural zone. 


§ Offering daily services to at least two tourist 

attractions in medium term 

§ Develop other services to other attractions 

points (San Ignacio – Caracol) 

Reduce travel time and travel cost between PGIA to 

Caye Caulker and San Pedro. Today to reach the 

water taxis services in the Center it takes half an 

hour, this time may be reduce to less than 10 

minutes if service start from Vista del Mar (see maps 




below. As the distance is lower (5km vs 16km) prices 

of taxi should also decrease. A terminal should be 

developed with the passenger amenities, such as 

toilets, waiting zones, drinking water, snacks. 



§ Help the tourism expansion offering new or 

better options of travel 

§ Population of Ladyville, Sarteneja, Bomba, 

Maskall, Punta Gorda 




§ Better infrastructure in the Village / Cities 

attend 

§ Better connection 


§ Central Coastal zone 


§ PGIA – San Pedro: no profitable service due to 

lack of demand 

§ Important volume of tourists who travel 

from PGIA to San Pedro or Caye Kaulker. 

With an efficient service, coordinated with 

shuttle from airport to new peer, it will be a 

good and easy option for tourism travel. 

§ Option to capture a proportion of the 

tourism that travel by plane today from 

PGIA to San Pedro and Caye Caulker 

§ Advertise those services in Internet forum 

and inside the airport. 




No. 


1. Sector 

51 Ports 


Progra 

m 

Cruise Terminal in Port of Magical 

Belize 

P1 



§ Private investment Medium 

Term 


costs 


§ Cost of 150 M USD (300 M BZ$) § First phase prior to 2025 


Cruise terminal on a parcel of land located along the coastline just south of the Sibun River. Berthing 

capacity for four Oasis class vessels needing 12 m (39 ft.) draught. Access road of 6 miles included in 

the project 


results) 

NA 


The tourist industry has been requesting during the 

last years for an onshore terminal for cruise vessels 

permitting a direct access of cruise tourists to land. 

The development of Port of Magical Belize is an 

balanced solution which is quite well located to 

enable additional economic development south of 

Belize City. It provides a point of entry to Belize more 

attractive than Belize city to tourists 

Over 1.5 h savings for cruise passengers per 

day 

Direct access to land for cruise passengers 

increase their safety 

Shorter detention times for cruise vessels 


- To build a cruise terminal with berthing 

capacity for 4 Oasis class vessels 

§ Works finished by 2025 






Cruise tourists and operators 

Region south of Belize City 

Certain impacts of water quality due to pollution 

and other causes for turbidity. 

As it is expected to develop tourist resorts close 

to the terminal, the reception and treatment of 

cruise waste must be managed by the terminal 

operator 





§ Belize City 


§ Environmental risks linked to the dredge 

§ Funding non secured 

§ 

§ To plan in advance the dredge movements 

and the location for stocking the soil 

§ After EIA establish a plan with mitigation 

measures agreed by the Department of 

Environment 




No. 


1. Sector 

52 Ports 


Progra 

m 

New multipurpose berth on Port of 

Belize 

P2 


§ Private investment (eventual 

Medium 


public participation on dredging 

Term 


costs 

§ Berth works: 15,000,000 USD (30,000,000 

BZD) – Port of Belize estimated 

§ Dredging costs for berth and turning basin: 

5,000,000 USD (10,000,000 BZD) 

§ Bulk facility: 5,000,000 USD (10,000,000 BZD) 

§ Access road: 5,000,000 USD (10,000,000 

BZD) 


§ Second berth in Operation by 2025 

§ Bulk Terminal in Operation by 2025 


Rehabilitation and completion of the berth in the unfinished cruise terminal (250 meters) 

Dredging of the berth and the turning basin up to 10 meters draught. 

Bulk storage capacity of 800,000 tons of bulk and breakbulk 

Access road of over 2 miles in HMA 


results) 

NA 


- To provide an all year accessible bulk 

terminal for the northern half of the country 

replacing the existing OGV service by a 

vessel stopping at port (for transport of 

sugar in bulk) 

- To solve the existing capacity problem on 

the King’s Wharf as containers have priority 

over bulk vessels 

- 48,000 containers in 2015, +7% CAGR last 

6 years 

- Short and narrow wharf with a unique berth 

63 m-long accessible via a long and narrow 

one-way access trestle 

- Maximum theoretical capacity of 70,000 

containers and very limited available 

capacity for bulk and general cargo 

- Container traffic will be close to 70,000 

containers by 2025 

Solving the conflict between containers and 

bulk.by creating a second berth 

Increased capacity for additional 90,000 

containers 

Reduction of dwelling times for the vessels and 

reductions of cost of maritime side by half. 

Reduction of costs on the land transport + port 

handling side. 

Opportunity for other bulk exports (grains…) 





- To reduce the dwell time of the bulk vessels 

from over a month to just a few days hence 

reducing transport costs for bulk exports 

- To reduce the waiting times for bulk imports 

vessels that must give priority to container 

vessels on King’s Wharf 

- To provide cost effective solution in the long 

term for container capacity 



§ Container importers and exporters 

§ Sugar producers and exporters 

§ Other bulk cargo importers and exporters 

§ The second berth becomes the main berth 

of Port of Belize 

§ The bulk terminal is operational by 2025 

and it has replaced the current OGV 

service 




§ Dredging works will have a temporary 

impact in terms of water pollution 

§ Reduced time of ships at port should 

reduce pollution produced by these 

§ The project will have an indirect negative 

effect as the reduction in transport costs 

due to the bulk terminal will likely make a 

shift in the transport of sugar from barge to 

truck 

§ The project increases the resilience of the 

transport sector by providing more robust 

services for bulk cargo. Moreover, this 

becomes a redundancy to Big Creek Port 

and opens the door for some market 

competition 


§ Belize City 


§ Environmental risks linked to the dredge 

§ Disengagement of several clients and traffic 

insufficient to justify the investment 

§ To plan in advance the dredge movements 

and the location for stocking the soil 

§ Negotiate in advance with the exporters 

and importers to sign some bounding 

contracts (as Santander with Big Creek). 

Alternatively, convince some of them to 

participate in the investment (unlikely) 






53 Aviation PGIA Taxiway Extension 


BAA § Private (BACC) Medium Term 

7. Rough breakdown of 


preliminary project costs 

§ Item1 / Phase 1 BZD 30,000,000 

§ Item 2 / Phase 2 BZD 30,000,000 

§ Total BZD 60,000,000 

§ Item1 / Phase 1 – 2019 50% of cost 

§ Item 2 / Phase 2 – 2029 50% of cost 

§ Commencement of service - 2020 & 2030 


The capacity of the current PGIA airfield system is estimated at about 20-25 aircraft movements per 

hour depending on the mix of traffic during the peaks. Currently during busy periods, this capacity is 

being exceeded, with significant delays at times. 

To provide additional runway capacity, reduce current delays and satisfy projected traffic growth, this 

project will extend the existing parallel taxiway the threshold of runway 25. The extended taxiway would 

be aligned with the existing taxiway, which provides sufficient distance between the runway and the 

parallel roadway (International Airport Road). The taxiway cannot be located any closer to the runway 

as the existing taxiway is currently 182.5m from the runway centerline, which is the minimum standard 

for runway/taxiway separations for Code E operations to accommodate overseas flights. 

10. Project prioritization 

(multi-criteria analysis results) 

NA 


The project will reduce the need for aircraft to 

The project will improve safety and operational 

back-taxi on the runway to reach the terminal 

capacity/efficiency. 

apron and adjacent aircraft parking areas. 


Enhance safety and operational 

efficiency by increasing runway capacity from 20-25 

aircraft movements/hour (current) to 30-35 aircraft 

movements/hour (Phase 1) and 30-35 aircraft 

movements/hour (Phase 1). 

Measurement of actual peak aircraft 

movements/hour upon completion of the 

respective phases of the project. 



Airline/aircraft operators will improve on-time 

performance and reduce operating costs by 

avoiding delays caused by aircraft back-taxiing on 

runway. In turn, passengers will benefit from 

enhanced operational performance and safety. 




Neighbouring communities will be exposed to 

less aircraft noise and emissions due to 

reduced arcrft idling while waiting to take off. 


Parallel to Runway 25 and 

International Airport Road. 





Normal construction-related risks linked to working 

within an active airport airside area and potential 

environmental impacts. 

Development/implementation of a project safety 

plan and environmental assessment of the 

project area. 






54 Aviation San Pedro Airport Capacity Development 


BAA § Public Medium 




§ Order of Magnitude Estimate 

BZD54,000,000 

§ 2021-22 


The existing San Pedro airport is located within the village and is effectively surrounded by existing 

development. The runway is 3,500 ft (1070m) x 60 ft (18m). To be able to carry out safe operations 

on the runway, a runway strip of 40m width each side of runway centerline should maintained clear of 

objects as well as a transitional surface of 20% emanating from the edge of this strip. The adjacent 

development violates the runway strip (some roads and some buildings are within 25m fo the runway 

centerline and many buildings violate the transitional surface). Based on the limited runway length, 

the largest aircraft capable of serving the airport is a Cessna 208 (9/10 seats). 

Due to this close proximity of adjacent development, the related noise and safety issues, especially 

given the high traffic volumes, it is urgent that this airport be relocated to a more compatible site. 

A new airport to replace the current one should have the following characteristics: 

• Capable of at least serving larger aircraft, with 18 – 50 seats; 

• Runway length of 5,000 ft max (though given the limitations of the width of the island 

something in the low-to-mid 4,000 ft could suffice) x 100 ft wide; 

• Provide sufficient land area to develop the appropriate facilities including terminals, GA 

hangars, emergency response, fuelling, etc; 

• Locate in an area which allows development but protects the appropriate obstacle limitation 

surfaces for the airport; 

• Convenient road access to San Pedro; 

• Land area in the order of 200ha (though this could be as small as 120ha). 

At this point it is not the intent to recommend a specific new site for a new San Pedro airport but 

rather to identify potential areas for assessment. Much additional work would be required to do site 

investigations, especially concerning the extent of the mangroves at each of the potential sites, what 

the soils conditions, and ground water conditions might be, as well as what remediation might be 

possible if impacted mangroves require compensation/off-set, etc. 




The existing San Pedro airport runway 

is limited to Cessna 208 (Caravan) 

sized aircraft and any runway 

extensions would be impractical, 

therefore an alternative site is needed 

to facilitate future traffic growth. 

The project will allow larger aircraft to serve the 

San Pedro airport, including 35-50 seat aircraft 

(ie: DH83, D328, etc.) and larger 

(ie: ATRs, Q400, Sh360, Saab 340, etc.). 


Enhance runway capability to enable 

larger aircraft to serve the San Pedro 

airport including 35-50 seat aircraft and 

larger. 

Physical completion of runway works and 

operational activation to facilitate service 

to the San Pedro Airport by 

35-50 seat aircraft and larger 




15. Beneficiaries 

(communities/population benefited) and 

impacted communities 

Airline/aircraft operators will have the ability 

to serve the San Pedro with larger aircraft. 

In turn, passengers will benefit from 

enhanced safety and service levels/capacity. 

16. Impacts to the environment (natural/social) 

and to climate change resilience and adaptation 

If implemented, neighbouring 

communities/development clustered around the 

existing San Pedro airport will be exposed to less 

aircraft noise and emissions. 

17. Project 

area 

18. Location map/site photo 

Various 

Potential Site 

on Ambergris 

Cay 

A rough template for a new airport could look as illustrated in the figure below. 


Normal construction-related risks 

linked to airport development 

and construction and potential 


Development/implementation of a project safety plan and 

environmental assessment of the project area. 






55 Aviation Placencia Airport Capacity Development 


BAA § Public Medium 




§ Option 1 TBD 

§ Option 2 BZD16,000,000 

§ Option 1 TBD 

§ Option 2 2019-20 


The existing Placencia airport (Option 1), located on the Placencia peninsula roughly 3km north of 

Placencia Village, consists of a single east-west runway 2135 ft (650m) long x 25 ft (8m) wide designated 

as 08/26. While this runway is located at one of the widest parts of the island (about 1000m), there is 

limited land to extend the runway due to mangroves and main roadway conflicts. 

The current runway length is sufficient to handle Cessna 208s (Caravans - typically 9 seats), however 

larger aircraft from 35-50 seats (ie: DH83, D328) would require at least a 4,000 ft runway. A length of 

4,500 ft would be preferable, while 5,000 ft would be desirable to handle larger turbo-props like the ATRs, 

Q400 or even a Sh360 or Saab 340. Due to the peninsula, the mangroves to the west and the main road 

and the sea to the east, it would be extremely difficult and costly to extend the current runway to handle 

any aircraft bigger than the Cessna 208 (Caravan). 

As such, the most realistic alternative is completion of the privately held Placencia International Airport 

(Option 2) located just 3 km to the west of Riversdale at the north end of the Placencia Peninsula. 




The existing Plecencia airport runway is 

limited to Cessna 208 (Caravan) sized 

aircraft and any runway extensions would 

be extremely costly and impractical, 

therefore an alternative site is needed to 

facilitate future traffic growth. 

The project will allow larger aircraft to serve the Placencia 

peninsula, including 35-50 seat aircraft (ie: DH83, D328, 

etc.) and larger 

(ie: ATRs, Q400, Sh360, Saab 340, etc.). 


Enhance runway capability to enable 

larger aircraft to serve the Placencia 

peninsula, including 35-50 seat aircraft 

and larger. 

Physical completion of runway works and operational 

activation to facilitate service 

to the Placencia peninsula by 35-50 seat aircraft and 

larger 

15. Beneficiaries 

(communities/population benefited) 

and impacted communities 

16. Impacts to the environment (natural/social) and to 

climate change resilience and adaptation 

Airline/aircraft operators will have the 

ability to serve the Placencia peninsula 

with with larger aircraft. In turn, 

passengers will benefit from enhanced 

service levels/capacity. 

If Options is implemented, neighbouring communities 

clustered around the existing Placencia airport will be 

exposed to less aircraft noise and emissions. 




17. Project 

area 

18. Location map/site photo 

Placencia Airport (Option 1) 

Parallel to 

Runway 25 

and 

International 

Airport Road. 

Riversdale Site (Option 2) 


Normal construction-related risks 

linked to airport development and 

construction and potential 


Development/implementation of a project safety plan and 

environmental assessment of the project area. 






56 Logistics 

Jalacte Border Post designed following 

regular standards 

L1 


§ Multilateral 

Border Management Agency 

banks 

§ Regional 

development 

Medium 

finance 

institutions 


costs 


§ Feasibility studies, binational process and § Feasibility studies, binational process 

final design 0.5 

and final design / 2018-2023 4% of 

§ million BZD 

cost 

§ Construction 11.5 million § Construction / 2024 96% of 

BZD 

cost 

§ Total 12 million BZD § Commencement of service: 2025 


§ Establish the Jalacte POE to impulse international trade between Belize with Guatemala and 

Central America. 

§ The POE in conjunction with the connecting roads in Belize and Guatemala will decrease 

transports time and cost of goods 

§ The POE will allow the transit of pedestrians, light vehicles and freight vehicles 


results) 

NA 


§ Develop regional trade thru road 

transportation 

§ Legalize the current border crossing 

§ Guarantee national security at this point on 

the border 

§ Reduce the costs of road transport for 

merchandise trade with Central America 

§ Provide security at this point of the border 

§ Promote the economic development of the 

south of the country 


§ Technical and socio-economic 

§ Evaluate the POE feasibility 

feasibility report 

§ Obtain the Guatemala and Belize 

§ Signing of Memorandum of 

governments approval to establish the 

Understanding between Belize and 

POE 

Guatemala governments to define the 

§ Develop the best design and dimension for 

POE location 

the demand of the crossing at the 

§ Obtaining funding sources 

beginning of the operation 


§ Establish a master plan for expansion of 

§ Operation Start in the expected period 

the POE 






§ Population in 6 miles around the crossing 

§ Road transport freight attended (2025) at 

POE § Natural protected areas 

§ Archaeological sites 

§ Indigenous communities 





§ Belize´s border with 

Guatemala, 

§ In the vicinity of Santa 

Cruz town in 

Guatemala and Dump 

town in Belize 

§ Distance of 

approximately 30 km 

to connect with 

Highway South 


§ Guatemala government's refusal to 

establish the POE 

§ Identification of fatal flaws (technical, 

socio-economic, environmental, etc.). 

Project not feasible 

§ Lack of financing 

§ Lack of communication road with the 

Southern Highway 

§ Social opposition to the project 

§ Right-of-Way acquisition 

§ Bi-national coordination 

§ Best alternatives selection without fatal 

flaws through comprehensive feasibility 

studies 

§ Ensure funding sources for POE and 

road connection 






57 Logistics 

Modernization of Border Posts (Santa 

Elena selected for pilot program) 

L2 


5. Sources of 

funds 

6. Term 

Border Management Agency, Customs 

§ Multilateral 

banks 

§ Regional 

development 

Long 

finance 

institutions 


costs 


§ Feasibility studies and obtaining funding 

sources process 150,000 BZD § Feasibility studies and obtaining funding 

§ Acquisition of gamma rays equipment 

sources process/ 2018-2024 2% of cost 

(includes the equipment supply, 

§ Acquisition of equipment gamma rays 

installation, first year warranty and 

(includes the equipment supply, 

technical support, training and freight 

installation, first year of warranty and 

applicable) 

3 million BZD technical support, training and freight 

§ 30-year demand assessment and forecast applicable)/ 2025-2027: 30% of cost 

§ 30-year demand assessment and 

study 

50,000 BZD 

§ Expansion of inspection lanes for Private 

Owned Vehicle (POV) and commercial 

freight vehicles according to the growth of 

demand. and obtaining funding sources 

process 

4 million BZD 

§ Weighbridge installation for verification of 


vehicles. 1.3 million BZD 

§ Improvements in laboratory capacity of 

BAHA (for plant health, animal health and 

food safety) at cross-border. 1.35 

million BZD 

§ Total 9.85 million 

BZD 


forecast study/ 2025-2026 1% of cost 

§ Expansion of inspection lanes for Private 

Owned Vehicle (POV) and commercial 

freight vehicles according to the growth of 

demand and obtaining funding sources 

process / 2026-2028 41% of cost 

§ Weighbridge installation for verification of 


vehicles / 2029: 13% of cost 

§ Expansion Improvements in laboratory 

capacity of BAHA (for plant health, 

animal health and food safety) at crossborder 

/ 2029-2030 

cost 

§ Commencement of service:2027 

14% of 

§ Customs equipment acquisition with Non-Intrusive Inspection (NII) systems and Radiation 

detection equipment (RDE) capabilities for Santa Elena POE 

§ Modular increase in the supply of infrastructure based on the evaluation of the demand 

§ Weighbridge installation for verification of maximum permissible weights in freight vehicles 

§ Improvements in laboratory capacity of BAHA 


results) 

NA 


§ Optimize customs revision process 

through increased performance of the 

Santa Elena customs 

§ Provide inspection technology to Santa 

Elena customs 

§ Increase the operations capability of 

Santa Elena customs 

§ Cost and transport times reduction 

associated with customs inspection 

§ Damages and losses reduction of 

products derived from manual 

inspection maneuvers 

§ National security increase by detecting 

illegal goods 





Customs operation improvement at Santa Elena 

PoE thru the technological equipment 

implementation and the increasing in the supply of 




Products importers from Mexico 

Customs inspection time reduction 





Customs Office of the Santa 

Elena POE on the border with 

Mexico 


§ Lack of financing 

§ Forecast not justify the investment 

§ Request for financial resources 

adequately based on a cost-benefit 

analysis 




ANNEX 9: 

SCHEMATICS OF A GENERIC MODEL FOR A 

PUBLIC-PRIVATE ASSOCIATION 




ANNEXE 10: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF FREIGHT PORT 

OPTIONS 

This annex includes a simplified financial evaluation of the three different freight options presented 

in Chapter 6. Cruise terminals were excluded, as it was not possible to collect any relevant 

information on tariffs and costs. 

The evaluation carried out focuses on the perspective of the port operator. The reasons for this 

are the following: 

- The investments will be solely private, so the investment with better financial internal rate 

of return is the more likely to be implemented successfully (including financial 

sustainability). 

- The study on port options carried out by IDB (and used as input at the beginning of the 

project) employed a similar method for the evaluation of the financial feasibility of the Port 

of Commerce Bight. 

The options studied are as follows: 

- Option A: 

o Cruise Terminal in Port of Magical Belize; 

o Development of a multipurpose second berth and a bulk facility in Port of Belize. 

- Option B: 


o Reclaim of land in Port of Belize to develop a multipurpose second berth and a 

bulk facility. 

- Option C: 


o Port of Commerce Bight as alternative freight solution due to lack of developments 

in Port of Belize. 

The main assumptions for the exercise are given below: 

- General 

o Discount rate: 12% 

o Period of the evaluation: 30 years 

o Yearly maintenance cost: 0,05% of the investment cost 

o Starting of operations in 2025. 

- Specific 

o Option A and B attract the same share of exports and imports whilst the forecasts 

for Option C (Commerce Bight) are slightly different. 

o For bulk, as in the IDB study, it is assumed that operating costs are compensated 

by the regular tariffs. Therefore, the profit to cover the investment comes from an 

extra tariff applicable to certain commodities: 

§ Sugar and molasses for the three options, as it is consider that the savings 

on the shipping costs are enough to justify the payment of a prime. 

According to BSI data, transport until Belize City and handling onto the 

OGV cost them roughly 70-75 US$ / ton and maritime costs (mainly 

detention time) are of about 50-55 US$. Direct access by road may reduce 

the cost of transport to Port of Belize (Options A and B) but will increase in 

the case of Option C, as Commerce Bight is farther than Belize City. 

However, the reduction of delays from several weeks to only a few days 




should significantly decrease the maritime costs for all options. Therefore, 

a value of 10 US$ / ton of sugar and molasses has was taken as 

assumption. It is likely that the savings for BSI will be much higher, if 

Options A or B are implemented so there would be margin maybe for a 

higher value. In the case of Option C as land transport will be more 

expensive compared to Options A and B, the willingness to pay will be 

lower. 

§ Option C will attract all the citrus exports. As the land transport costs will 

be reduced, it is reasonable to apply a specific value of 5 US$ / ton for this 

option. 

In truth, even when using the regular tariffs the port operator are getting some 

profit, though it might be fairly low. We could not integrate such profit due to 

the lack of information so the results of the financial evaluation will be slightly 

underestimated from that point of view. 

o For containers, we assumed a profitability of 30% for new containers movements 

after overpassing the capacity of the existing wharf (70,000 containers) which is 

an average of port container terminals (values usually range 20-45%). The tariff 

used to apply the 30% is an average cost of container handling of 500 US $. 

o No taxes have been applied 

The detailed traffic assumptions are presented in the following two tables: 

Traffic: Options A & B 2025 2035 2045 2055 

Sugar: 50% by 2025 

after bounding finished and with Bulk Terminal, Belize 

City regains part of the traffic from Santander (33%), so 

66% 

Molasses: 100% to 2016; diminishing to 50% by 2020. 


City regains part of the traffic from Santander 

125 000 tons 213 312 tons 247 566 tons 266 706 tons 


Bananas: 0% 0 tons 0 tons 0 tons 0 tons 

Citrus: 90% to 2016, falling to 50% by 2020. 65 350 tons 77 500 tons 91 900 tons 100 100 tons 

Other products: 96% to 2015, falling to 50% by 2035 22 260 tons 29 313 tons 47 748 tons 52 717 tons 

Container traffic to be included in the evaluation: all traffic 

exceeding 70,000 containers which is the current capacity 

0 23 926 TEU 53 194 TEU 69 383 TEU 

Traffic: Option C 2025 2035 2045 2055 

Sugar: 50% by 2025 


City regains part of the traffic from Santander (33%), so 

66% 

Molasses: 100% to 2016; diminishing to 50% by 2020. 


City regains part of the traffic from Santander 



Bananas: 0% 0 tons 0 tons 0 tons 0 tons 

Citrus: 100% by 2025. 130 700 tons 155 000 tons 183 800 tons 200 200 tons 

Other products: 0 in 2025, to 50% by 2035 0 tons 29 313 tons 47 748 tons 52 717 tons 




Container traffic to be included in the evaluation: 70% of 

the traffic exceeding 70,000 containers which is the 

current capacity; it is assumed that the remaining 30% 

traffic will choose another way to enter into Belize 

0 16 748 TEU 37 236 TEU 48 568 TEU 

The costs used for the exercise are as follows: 

Cost Option A Option B Option C 

Investment (US$) 30 000 000 60 000 000 133 000 000 

Annual maintenance (US$) 150 000 300 000 6 650 000 

It is worth mentioning that the cost for Option B is likely to be underestimated. Depending on the 

quality of the soil and the capacity to reuse the dredging material or not, the investment could 

increase up to US$ 80-100 Million. 

The results of the financial evaluation are presented in the following table: 

Indicator Option A Option B Option C 

NPV (US$) 772 787 - 49 279 468 - 165 170 876 

IRR 14% 2% -6% 

As expected, Option A is the only one with both positive Net Present Value (NPV) and a 

reasonable Internal Rate of Return. 

The massive costs of option B and C, including higher maintenance costs, make them much less 

attractive. Option B has the risk of increasing their real cost, as mentioned above. However, it is 

possible that it could be possible to increase the profit if the primes applied were higher. 

Option C results are worse than in the IDB study of January 2016. The reasons are the following: 

- In the IDB study, estimated costs were of US $ 80 million including handling equipment 

whilst the current estimated cost according to Recological Systems (project promoter) is 

of US $ 133 million 

- The IDB study assumed that the sugar production of Santander Ltd would use Commerce 

Bight. However, Santander is currently bound to Big Creek Port and they have invested 

in the port. Even if they decided to shift their volume to Commerce Bight and all sugar 

from Belize used that port, the IRR would still be -2%. 

However, it is worth noting that this financial evaluation focuses on the main potential sources of 

revenue. According to Recological Systems, they expect to have additional income from other 

activities as maritime salvage and from other products potential exports. Therefore, it would be 

suitable to check the entire business plan of the port to evaluate its feasibility, which according to 

our evaluation is very low. 

The results of the analysis go totally in line with the option suggested, namely Option A. Option B 

could be feasible but it will need further analysis to make it viable and Option C seems a last 

option if the institutional situation in Port of Belize is completely blocked. 




Finally, a comment regarding the additional costs and benefits that would have been included in 

the case of an economic evaluation for the country as a whole. Options A and B would barely 

differ in terms of benefits on the freight side whereas costs for Option B are higher. The significant 

difference is that Option A would imply the development of a new cruise facility in the Port of 

Magical Belize. This will open major development opportunities for the region south of Belize City, 

while adversely the Belize City’s economy. As already in Chapter 6, Option C can be an 

interesting opportunity to develop Dangriga region, but in that case the scope must be much wider 

than just building a port; it must include several programs in all sectors so that the final impact is 

positive. 




Scan here for full CNTMP reports or visit 

www.edc.gov.bz

CNTMP Final Report - April 2018

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