Prism 2.0:
Preliminary Insights from
EPRI’s Regional Model
Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D.
Vice President, Environment & Renewables
Electric Power Research Institute
2010 Summer Seminar
August 2, 2010
Why Prism 2.0?
• New Regional Economic Model
• Improved treatment of renewable energy
– High-resolution wind and solar resource data
– Full biomass model with resource competition
• Expanded demand-side detail
– Energy efficiency potential by region and technology
– Fully developed transportation module
• Full complement of environmental regulations
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Next Generation of EPRI Analysis
2
Why Prism 2.0?
• New Regional Economic Model
• Improved treatment of renewable energy
– High-resolution wind and solar resource data
– Full treatment of integration costs of variable generation
– Integrated biomass model with resource competition
• Expanded demand-side detail by region and technology
– Energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed resources
– Electric transportation and electro-technologies
• Full complement of environmental regulations
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Next Generation of EPRI Analysis
3
Leveraging EPRI Technology Insights
EPRI Technical Staff
Provide Critical Inputs
ETAC
Generation
Nuclear
Environment
PDU
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Regional Model
12 Census/State Regions
• Electricity Generation
• Regional Resources
- Wind, biomass, solar
- Geologic storage
• Transmission between
regions
• Energy use by region
- Industrial, commercial,
residential, transport
• Rest of the economy
MERGE for International Analysis
4
EPRI Staff and Members
Evaluate Model Results
New Insights
• Regional implications
of environmental and
energy policies
• Value of technology
• Wind integration
• Transportation
electrification
• Energy efficiency,
electrification, and
smart grid
Capital Cost ($/kW)
New Generation Technology Options:
Capital costs vary across regions
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Nuclear
Coal without CCS (SCPC)
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Wind
Coal with CCS (IGCC)
NGCC with CCS
5
Biomass
Solar (CSP) – West only
NGCC without CCS
NG Gas Turbine
New Wind Resource Data:
Capturing the Variability of Wind
• AWS Truepower 200m
resolution wind data
– Based on actual hourly
1997-2008 meteorology
– Provides simulated
output for typical turbine
(80m height, 1.5 MW)
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
6
• Identified 5300+
“utility-scale” sites
– Exclusion areas
– 100 MW site minimum
– Distance to grid
– Terrain/wake effects
(excluding delivery costs)
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2007 Gen
by Coal
Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) National Wind Energy Potential Supply Curve*
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Wind TWh (million MWh)
*EPRI – AWS TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curve
7
Generation Cost
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
New Transmission Line Miles (thousands)
COE ($/MWh)
Regional Wind Energy Potential Supply Curve
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
Texas
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mountain
Annual Wind Energy (TWh)
8
NW Central
NW Central (47.4%)
Mountain (18.5%)
Texas (9.3%)
NE Central (7.5%)
SW Central (4.9%)
Pacific (4.1%)
Mid Atlantic (2.9%)
California (2.7%)
Uneven Regional Distribution…. ~50% of Economic Resource in NW Central
Example Analysis for NW-Central Region
NW-
Central
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• State hourly load data for 2007
from Energy Velocity
• Hourly loads and wind output
synchronized so driven by
same 2007 meteorology
• Add 50 GW new installed wind
capacity within region
• Rank sites by capacity factor,
build best sites first
9
New Wind Data Captures Variability
MW
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
‐
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NWC Time Series from 2/28/07 to 3/7/07 w 50 GW Added
Max for year near the
50 GW of capacity Minimum < 5 GW
10
Wind
NWC Load
Anti-correlation of Wind with Load
Creates Ramping Issues
MW
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
‐
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NWC Time Series from 8/9/07 to 8/16/07 w 50 GW Added
The morning
up-ramp
11
The evening
down-ramp
Wind
NWC Load
Wind Variability Impacts Thermal Fleet
Hourly Change in Dispatch (GW)
25
20
15
10
5
0
‐5
‐10
‐15
‐20
‐25
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NW-Central Region
2007 Total Installed Coal Capacity = 36 GW
2007 Average CF = 73%
Reference
+ 10 GW wind
+ 50 GW wind
+ 100 GW wind
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Hours of Year
12
25
20
15
10
5
0
‐5
‐10
‐15
‐20
‐25
What Happens When Wind Exceeds
Available Load?
TWh
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NW-Central Region
High Incremental $/MWh =
New Transmission or Storage
- 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Wind Capacity Additions (GW)
13
Wind
Load
Usable Wind
Spilled Wind
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Incremental COE ($/MWh)
(including delivery costs)
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Delivered Cost with
Existing Transmission
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Delivered Cost with
New Transmission
Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) National Wind Energy Potential Supply Curves*
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Wind TWh (million MWh)
*EPRI – AWS TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curves
14
Transmission Line Miles
Generation Cost
To Deliver 1,000 TWh…
• 260 GW of new turbines
~$650 billion
~175,000 turbines
• 19 new EHV trans lines
~$50 billion
~13,000 line miles
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
New Transmission Line Miles (thousands)
Taking Prism 2.0 for a “Test Drive”
• Details and timing of potential federal limits on GHG
emissions remain unclear
• Without specifying a particular proposal or cap, we can
simulate an aggressive policy with a rising CO 2 price:
$ per ton CO 2
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
$30
Results are illustrative, not polished scenarios!!!
15
Rising at 5%
per year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Generation Mix
TWh
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Existing Coal
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gas
EE and
Price Response
Wind
New Nuclear
Existing Nuclear
16
Gas-CCS
New Coal-CCS
AEO 2010 Reference Case
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas-CCS
Gas
Coal-CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology,
and behavioral price response
MERGE vs. Prism 2.0 “Test Drive”
MERGE with 80% by 2050 Cap
TWh GtCO
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Gas
EE &
Price Response
Wind
Nuclear
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Electric sector module only
Coal-CCS
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2 2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Energy
Efficiency*
Geo+Sol
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
Nuclear
Gas-CCS
Gas
Coal-CCS
Coal
Tons CO2 17
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive”
TWh GtCO
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Coal Coal
* Includes new
programs, technology,
and behavioral price
response
0
Gas
EE &
Price Response
Wind
Nuclear
Gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
TWh
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
2010-2025
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Gas
Coal
EE and
Price Response
Wind
Existing
Nuclear
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Efficiency and
renewables grow
Managed
transition for
existing coal fleet
18
AEO 2010 Reference Case
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas- CCS
Gas
Coal- CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology,
and behavioral price response
TWh
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
Post-2025
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Wind
growth
slows
Nuclear
and CCS
begin to
expand
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EE and Price Response
Gas
Coal
Wind
New Nuclear
Existing Nuclear
19
Gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
AEO 2010 Reference Case
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas- CCS
Gas
Coal- CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology,
and behavioral price response
TWh
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
Regional Generation Mix
Coal-CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
WEST
Gas
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas-CCS
Gas
Geothermal
Wind
Hydro+
Gas-CCS
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
TWh
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
MIDWEST
20
Imports
Total Energy
for Load
(after EE)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Responses to CO 2 policy differ greatly by region
Gas
Coal
Wind
Coal-CCS
TWh
TWh
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Coal
EAST
Import
Nuclear New Nuclear
Gas
Gas-CCS
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
SOUTH
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Import
New Nuclear
Gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
What if no new inter-region transmission?
New Wind Additions through 2030 (GW)
Eastern
Seaboard
Great Lakes
Northern Plains
Southern Plains
(OK)
Texas
WECC
0 20 40 60 80 100
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Unlimited New Capacity
Existing Links Only
21
800
600
400
200
0
Total US Wind Generation in 2030
(TWh)
16%
of
total
Unlimited New
Capacity
Less wind, more regionally distributed
11%
of
total
Existing Links Only
TWh
Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…
What if no new nuclear or CCS?
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
After 2025,
efficiency
and
renewables
must
further
expand
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Coal
EE and Price Response
Existing
Nuclear
Gas
Wind
22
Biomass
AEO 2010 Reference Case
Energy Efficiency*
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Hydro+
Nuclear (New)
Nuclear (Existing)
Gas- CCS
Gas
Coal- CCS (New)
CCS Retrofit
Coal
* Includes new programs, technology,
and behavioral price response
What We Are Seeing …
• Near term response to high CO 2 price likely dominated
by renewables, efficiency and natural gas
– Coal retirements offset by new renewables, efficiency
– Natural gas fills any remaining demand
• Wind integration costs significant at high penetration
– New balancing resources required
(transmission, storage, smart grid, PHEVs)
– Cycling impacts on thermal fleet � increased O&M
• Longer term, nuclear and CCS will be important
– Without them, rely on more costly renewables, efficiency
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
23
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