Prism 2.0 - Electric Power Research Institute

mydocs.epri.com

Prism 2.0 - Electric Power Research Institute

Prism 2.0:

Preliminary Insights from

EPRI’s Regional Model

Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D.

Vice President, Environment & Renewables

Electric Power Research Institute

2010 Summer Seminar

August 2, 2010


Why Prism 2.0?

• New Regional Economic Model

• Improved treatment of renewable energy

– High-resolution wind and solar resource data

– Full biomass model with resource competition

• Expanded demand-side detail

– Energy efficiency potential by region and technology

– Fully developed transportation module

• Full complement of environmental regulations

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Next Generation of EPRI Analysis

2


Why Prism 2.0?

• New Regional Economic Model

• Improved treatment of renewable energy

– High-resolution wind and solar resource data

– Full treatment of integration costs of variable generation

– Integrated biomass model with resource competition

• Expanded demand-side detail by region and technology

– Energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed resources

Electric transportation and electro-technologies

• Full complement of environmental regulations

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Next Generation of EPRI Analysis

3


Leveraging EPRI Technology Insights

EPRI Technical Staff

Provide Critical Inputs

ETAC

Generation

Nuclear

Environment

PDU

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional Model

12 Census/State Regions

Electricity Generation

• Regional Resources

- Wind, biomass, solar

- Geologic storage

• Transmission between

regions

• Energy use by region

- Industrial, commercial,

residential, transport

• Rest of the economy

MERGE for International Analysis

4

EPRI Staff and Members

Evaluate Model Results

New Insights

• Regional implications

of environmental and

energy policies

• Value of technology

• Wind integration

• Transportation

electrification

• Energy efficiency,

electrification, and

smart grid


Capital Cost ($/kW)

New Generation Technology Options:

Capital costs vary across regions

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Nuclear

Coal without CCS (SCPC)

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind

Coal with CCS (IGCC)

NGCC with CCS

5

Biomass

Solar (CSP) – West only

NGCC without CCS

NG Gas Turbine


New Wind Resource Data:

Capturing the Variability of Wind

• AWS Truepower 200m

resolution wind data

– Based on actual hourly

1997-2008 meteorology

– Provides simulated

output for typical turbine

(80m height, 1.5 MW)

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

6

• Identified 5300+

“utility-scale” sites

– Exclusion areas

– 100 MW site minimum

– Distance to grid

– Terrain/wake effects


(excluding delivery costs)

$400

$350

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

2007 Gen

by Coal

Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) National Wind Energy Potential Supply Curve*

0

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Wind TWh (million MWh)

*EPRI – AWS TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curve

7

Generation Cost

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

New Transmission Line Miles (thousands)


COE ($/MWh)

Regional Wind Energy Potential Supply Curve

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

-

Texas

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Mountain

Annual Wind Energy (TWh)

8

NW Central

NW Central (47.4%)

Mountain (18.5%)

Texas (9.3%)

NE Central (7.5%)

SW Central (4.9%)

Pacific (4.1%)

Mid Atlantic (2.9%)

California (2.7%)

Uneven Regional Distribution…. ~50% of Economic Resource in NW Central


Example Analysis for NW-Central Region

NW-

Central

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

• State hourly load data for 2007

from Energy Velocity

• Hourly loads and wind output

synchronized so driven by

same 2007 meteorology

• Add 50 GW new installed wind

capacity within region

• Rank sites by capacity factor,

build best sites first

9


New Wind Data Captures Variability

MW

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000


© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

NWC Time Series from 2/28/07 to 3/7/07 w 50 GW Added

Max for year near the

50 GW of capacity Minimum < 5 GW

10

Wind

NWC Load


Anti-correlation of Wind with Load

Creates Ramping Issues

MW

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000


© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

NWC Time Series from 8/9/07 to 8/16/07 w 50 GW Added

The morning

up-ramp

11

The evening

down-ramp

Wind

NWC Load


Wind Variability Impacts Thermal Fleet

Hourly Change in Dispatch (GW)

25

20

15

10

5

0

‐5

‐10

‐15

‐20

‐25

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

NW-Central Region

2007 Total Installed Coal Capacity = 36 GW

2007 Average CF = 73%

Reference

+ 10 GW wind

+ 50 GW wind

+ 100 GW wind

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Hours of Year

12

25

20

15

10

5

0

‐5

‐10

‐15

‐20

‐25


What Happens When Wind Exceeds

Available Load?

TWh

1,000

800

600

400

200

-

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

NW-Central Region

High Incremental $/MWh =

New Transmission or Storage

- 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Wind Capacity Additions (GW)

13

Wind

Load

Usable Wind

Spilled Wind

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

Incremental COE ($/MWh)


(including delivery costs)

$400

$350

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

Delivered Cost with

Existing Transmission

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Delivered Cost with

New Transmission

Cost of Electricity ($/MWh) National Wind Energy Potential Supply Curves*

0

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Wind TWh (million MWh)

*EPRI – AWS TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curves

14

Transmission Line Miles

Generation Cost

To Deliver 1,000 TWh…

• 260 GW of new turbines

~$650 billion

~175,000 turbines

• 19 new EHV trans lines

~$50 billion

~13,000 line miles

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

New Transmission Line Miles (thousands)


Taking Prism 2.0 for a “Test Drive”

• Details and timing of potential federal limits on GHG

emissions remain unclear

• Without specifying a particular proposal or cap, we can

simulate an aggressive policy with a rising CO 2 price:

$ per ton CO 2

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

$30

Results are illustrative, not polished scenarios!!!

15

Rising at 5%

per year

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Generation Mix

TWh

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Existing Coal

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gas

EE and

Price Response

Wind

New Nuclear

Existing Nuclear

16

Gas-CCS

New Coal-CCS

AEO 2010 Reference Case

Energy Efficiency*

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass

Wind

Hydro+

Nuclear (New)

Nuclear (Existing)

Gas-CCS

Gas

Coal-CCS (New)

CCS Retrofit

Coal

* Includes new programs, technology,

and behavioral price response


MERGE vs. Prism 2.0 “Test Drive”

MERGE with 80% by 2050 Cap

TWh GtCO

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Gas

EE &

Price Response

Wind

Nuclear

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Electric sector module only

Coal-CCS

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2 2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

Energy

Efficiency*

Geo+Sol

Biomass

Wind

Hydro+

Nuclear

Gas-CCS

Gas

Coal-CCS

Coal

Tons CO2 17

Prism 2.0 “Test Drive”

TWh GtCO

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Coal Coal

* Includes new

programs, technology,

and behavioral price

response

0

Gas

EE &

Price Response

Wind

Nuclear

Gas-CCS

Coal-CCS

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0


TWh

Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…

2010-2025

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Gas

Coal

EE and

Price Response

Wind

Existing

Nuclear

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficiency and

renewables grow

Managed

transition for

existing coal fleet

18

AEO 2010 Reference Case

Energy Efficiency*

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass

Wind

Hydro+

Nuclear (New)

Nuclear (Existing)

Gas- CCS

Gas

Coal- CCS (New)

CCS Retrofit

Coal

* Includes new programs, technology,

and behavioral price response


TWh

Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…

Post-2025

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Wind

growth

slows

Nuclear

and CCS

begin to

expand

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EE and Price Response

Gas

Coal

Wind

New Nuclear

Existing Nuclear

19

Gas-CCS

Coal-CCS

AEO 2010 Reference Case

Energy Efficiency*

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass

Wind

Hydro+

Nuclear (New)

Nuclear (Existing)

Gas- CCS

Gas

Coal- CCS (New)

CCS Retrofit

Coal

* Includes new programs, technology,

and behavioral price response


TWh

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…

Regional Generation Mix

Coal-CCS (New)

CCS Retrofit

Coal

WEST

Gas

Nuclear (New)

Nuclear (Existing)

Gas-CCS

Gas

Geothermal

Wind

Hydro+

Gas-CCS

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

TWh

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass

Wind

Hydro+

MIDWEST

20

Imports

Total Energy

for Load

(after EE)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Responses to CO 2 policy differ greatly by region

Gas

Coal

Wind

Coal-CCS

TWh

TWh

2000

1500

1000

500

0

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Coal

EAST

Import

Nuclear New Nuclear

Gas

Gas-CCS

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

SOUTH

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Import

New Nuclear

Gas-CCS

Coal-CCS

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…

What if no new inter-region transmission?

New Wind Additions through 2030 (GW)

Eastern

Seaboard

Great Lakes

Northern Plains

Southern Plains

(OK)

Texas

WECC

0 20 40 60 80 100

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Unlimited New Capacity

Existing Links Only

21

800

600

400

200

0

Total US Wind Generation in 2030

(TWh)

16%

of

total

Unlimited New

Capacity

Less wind, more regionally distributed

11%

of

total

Existing Links Only


TWh

Prism 2.0 “Test Drive” Insights…

What if no new nuclear or CCS?

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

After 2025,

efficiency

and

renewables

must

further

expand

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Coal

EE and Price Response

Existing

Nuclear

Gas

Wind

22

Biomass

AEO 2010 Reference Case

Energy Efficiency*

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass

Wind

Hydro+

Nuclear (New)

Nuclear (Existing)

Gas- CCS

Gas

Coal- CCS (New)

CCS Retrofit

Coal

* Includes new programs, technology,

and behavioral price response


What We Are Seeing …

• Near term response to high CO 2 price likely dominated

by renewables, efficiency and natural gas

– Coal retirements offset by new renewables, efficiency

– Natural gas fills any remaining demand

• Wind integration costs significant at high penetration

– New balancing resources required

(transmission, storage, smart grid, PHEVs)

– Cycling impacts on thermal fleet � increased O&M

• Longer term, nuclear and CCS will be important

– Without them, rely on more costly renewables, efficiency

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

23

More magazines by this user
Similar magazines