Times of the Islands Fall 2018

typical jet stream pattern that sets up as the seasons
change. Jet stream energy that remains confined over the
northern U.S. during summer, and allows for generally
calm conditions in the Caribbean, migrates south during
the fall into the southern portions of the United States.
This introduces more wind shear into the Gulf of Mexico
and Caribbean, thus the lower rate of storms in the late
season.
So how many late season storms have occurred in
and around the Turks & Caicos Islands over the years?
Looking at data between 1851–2015, the TCI has had
fourteen systems in or near the Islands between October
21–31, nine between November 1–10, and four between
November 11–20. That is a total of 27 recorded storms
either over the Islands or in very close proximity (storm
centers passing within 150 miles of TCI) based on 164
years of recorded data. That is quite a few tropical systems.
As you can see, it is very important to maintain vigilance
throughout the entire hurricane season. Contrary to
popular belief, hurricanes do form in the waning portion
of the season. Island citizens must always stay alert to
what Mother Nature is doing.
Fortunately, on August 9, 2018, as I prepared this article,
forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) noted that “Conditions in the
ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a
less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted
in May.” (See chart below.) This seasonal update
takes into account several factors, including that El Niño
is now much more likely to develop with enough strength
to suppress storm development during the latter part of
the season. As well, sea surface temperatures across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained
much cooler than average. A combination of stronger
wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere
in the region where storms typically develop will
further suppress hurricanes. However, NOAA warns that
the hurricane season is far from being over and urges
continued preparedness and vigilance.
By remaining weather-aware, the Turks & Caicos
avoided any loss of life during Hurricane Irma. That alone
was easily one of the miracles of the year! I wish you
health, happiness and a hurricane-free season.
However, if tropical weather threatens, you can be
sure I will be following it and alerting Islanders via my
Turks & Caicos Weather page on Facebook (Turks and
Caicos Islands Weather Info). a
Paul Wilkerson is an American meteorologist and tourist
who frequents the Turks & Caicos Islands. Along with
his wife and two daughters, the Wilkersons stay actively
engaged with Islanders and their families throughout the
year.
16 www.timespub.tc