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atw Vol. 63 (2018) | Issue 11/12 ı November/December Calendar 572 CALENDAR 2018 03.12.-14.12.2018 United Nations, Conference of the Parties – COP24. Katowice, Poland, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – UNFCCC, 03.12.-04.12.2018 IGD-TP Exchange Forum 8 – Radioactive Waste Management (EURAD). Berlin, Germany, German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), 06.12.2018 Nuclear 2018. London, United Kingdom, Nuclear Industry Association (NIA), 10.12.-12.12.2018 Toronto Global Forum: Navigating a World in Disruption. Toronto, Canada, 10.12.-11.12.2018 Symposium zum neuen deutschen Strahlenschutzrecht. Aschaffenburg, Germany, Fachverband für Strahlenschutz e. V., 2019 07.01.-08.01.2019 ICNPPS 2019 – 21 st International Conference Nuclear Power Plant Systems. Tokyo, Japan, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 15.01.2019 Nuclear Fuel Supply Forum. Washington DC, USA, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), 21.01.-22.01.2019 Uranium Science. Bristol, Unitd Kingdom, University of Bristol, Royal Academy of Engineering, IAC, 28.01.-29.01.2019 5 th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2019. Prague, Czech Republic, 05.02.-07.02.2019 Nordic Nuclear Forum. Helsinki, Finland, FinNuclear,, 20.02.-22.02.2019 ips – International Power Summit 2019. Berlin, Germany, 12.02.-14.02.2019 The annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit. Arlington, VA, USA, Access Intelligence, 20.02.-21.02.2019 Nuclear Decommissioning & Waste Management Summit 2019. London, United Kingdom, ACI, 25.02.-26.02.2019 Symposium Anlagensicherung. Hamburg, Germany, TÜV NORD Akademie, 03.03.-07.03.2019 WM Symposia – WM2019. Phoenix, AZ, USA. 05.03.-06.03.2019 VI. International Power Plants Summit. Istanbul, Turkey, INPPS Fair, 10.03.-15.03.2019 83. Annual Meeting of DPG and DPG Spring Meeting of the Atomic, Molecular, Plasma Physics and Quantum Optics Section (SAMOP), incl. Working Group on Energy. Rostock, Germany, Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft e.V., 10.03.-14.03.2019 The 9 th International Symposium On Supercritical- Water-Cooled Reactors (ISSCWR-9). Vancouver Marriott Hotel, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS), 11.03.-13.03.2019 18 th Workshop of the European ALARA Network: ALARA in Decommissioning and Site Remediation. Marcoule, France, European ALARA Network 11.03.-12.03.2019 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. Washington D.C., U.S.A., Carnegie Endownment for International Peace, 11.03.-15.03.2019 RaPBA-training course. Jülich, Germany, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 24.03.-28.03.2019 RRFM 2019 – 2019 the European Research Reactor Conference. Jordan, IGORR, the Inter national Group Operating Research Reactors and European Nuclear Society (ENS), 25.03.-27.03.2019 Cyber Security Implementation Workshop. Boston MA, USA, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), 01.04.-03.04.2019 CIENPI – 13 th China International Exhibition on Nuclear Power Industry. Beijing, China, Coastal International, 09.04.-11.04.2019 World Nuclear Fuel Cycle 2019. Shanghai, China, World Nuclear Association (WNA), 07.05.-08.05.2019 50 th Annual Meeting on Nuclear Technology AMNT 2019 | 50. Jahrestagung Kerntechnik. Berlin, Germany, DAtF and KTG, – Register Now! 15.05.-17.05.2019 1 st International Conference of Materials, Chemistry and Fitness-For-Service Solutions for Nuclear Systems. Toronto, Canada, Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS), 16.05.-17.05.2019 Emergency Power Systems at Nuclear Power Plants. Munich, Germany, TÜV SÜD, 24.05.-29.05.2019 International Topical Workshop on Fukushima Decommissioning Research – FDR2019. Fukushima, Japan, The University of Tokyo, 03.06.-05.06.2019 Nuclear Energy Assembly. Washington DC, USA, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), 04.06.-07.06.2019 FISA 2019 and EURADWASTE ‘19. 9 th European Commission Conferences on Euratom Research and Training in Safety of Reactor Systems and Radioactive Waste Management. Pitesti, Romania, 24.06.-26.06.2019 2019 International Conference on the Management of Spent Fuel from Nuclear Power Reactors. Vienna, Austria, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 23.06.-27.06.2019 World Nuclear University Summer Institute. Romania and Switzerland, World Nuclear University, 21.07.-24.07.2019 14 th International Conference on CANDU Fuel. Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS), 28.07.-29.07.2019 Radiation Protection Forum. Memphis TN, USA, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), 04.08.-09.08.2019 PATRAM 2019 – Packaging and Transportation of Radioactive Materials Symposium. New Orleans, LA, USA. 21.08.-30.08.2019 Frédéric Joliot/Otto Hahn (FJOH) Summer School FJOH-2019 – Innovative Reactors: Matching the Design to Future Deployment and Energy Needs. Karlsruhe, Germany, Nuclear Energy Division of Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) and Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), 04.09.-06.09.2019 World Nuclear Association Symposium 2019. London, UK, World Nuclear Association (WNA), 04.09.-05.09.2019 VGB Congerss 2019 – Innovation in Power Generation. Salzburg, Austria, VGB PowerTech e.V., 08.09.-11.09.2019 4 th Nuclear Waste Management, Decommissioning and Environmental Restoration (NWMDER). Ottawa, Canada, Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS), 09.09.-12.09.2019 24 th World Energy Congress. Abu Dhabi, UAE, 09.09.-12.09.2019 Jahrestagung 2019 – Fachverband für Strahlenschutz | Strahlenschutz und Medizin. Würzburg, Germany, 22.10.-25.10.2019 SWINTH-2019 Specialists Workshop on Advanced Instrumentation and Measurement Techniques for Experiments Related to Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics and Severe Accidents. Livorno, Italy, 23.10.-24.10.2019 Chemistry in Power Plants. Würzburg, Germany, VGB PowerTech e.V., 27.10.-30.10.2019 FSEP CNS International Meeting on Fire Safety and Emergency Preparedness for the Nuclear Industry. Ottawa, Canada, Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS), Calendar

atw Vol. 63 (2018) | Issue 11/12 ı November/December Should Nuclear Energy Play a Role in a Carbon-Constrained World? Jacopo Buongiorno, Michael Corradini, John Parsons and David Petti The Big Picture Access to electricity plays a vital role in improving standards of living, education, and health. This relationship is illustrated by Figure 1, which locates various countries according to their score on the Human Development Index, a well-known metric of economic and social development, and per capita electricity use. As countries develop, electricity use tends to rise; according to current forecasts, electricity consumption in developing non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries is expected to grow 60 % by 2040, whereas worldwide use is expected to grow 45 % in the same timeframe (U.S. Energy Information Agency, 2017). | | Fig. 1. Human Development Index versus per capita electricity consumption for different countries (United Nations Development Programme, 2017) Expanding access to energy while at the same time drastically reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming and climate change is among the central challenges confronting humankind in the 21 st century. This study focuses on the electric power sector, which has been identified as an early target for deep decarbonization. In the foreseeable future, electricity will continue to come primarily from a mix of fossil fuels, hydro power, variable renewables such as solar and wind, and nuclear energy (U.S. Energy Information Agency, 2017). At present nuclear energy supplies about 11 % of the world’s electricity and constitutes a major fraction of all low-carbon electricity generation in the United States, Europe, and globally (Figure 2). Nuclear energy’s future role, however, is highly uncertain for several reasons: chiefly, escalating costs and, to a lesser extent, the per sistence of historical challenges such as spent fuel disposal and concerns about nuclear plant safety and nuclear weapons proliferation. | | Fig. 2. Share of carbon-free electricity sources in several major economies and worldwide (International Energy Agency, 2017) The Nuclear Energy Landscape Since MIT published its first Future of Nuclear Power study [Deutch, et al., 2003], the context for nuclear energy in the United States and globally has changed dramatically. Throughout most of the 2000s, the U.S. fleet of nuclear power plants was highly profitable: their capital costs had been largely amortized over previous decades and their production costs were low compared to the relatively high cost of fossil and renewable alternatives. As utilities sought to maximize the value of their nuclear assets, they embarked on a flurry of market-driven nuclear power plant purchases, power uprates, and license extensions. The situation changed quickly after 2007, as large quantities of inexpensive shale natural gas became available in the United States and the Great Recession depressed electricity demand and prices. Since then, nuclear power plants in the United States have become steadily less profitable and the industry has witnessed a wave of plant closures. Two recent examples include the Kewaunee plant in Wisconsin, which shut down in 2013 [Dotson, 2014], and the Fort Calhoun plant in Nebraska, which shut down in 2016 [ Larson, A., 2016]. Both plants shut down because they could not compete with cheaper generation options. Similarly, falling natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have put more economic pressure on nuclear power in those regions also. While the U.S. nuclear industry remains exceptionally proficient at operating the existing fleet of power plants, its handling of complex nuclear construction projects has been abysmal, as exemplified by the mismanagement of component-replacement projects at the San Onofre [Mufson, 2013] and Crystal River [Penn, 2013] plants, which led to the premature closure of both plants in 2013. Other projects, including the troubled Vogtle [Proctor, D., 2017] and V. C. Summer [Downey, 2017] expansion projects, have experienced soaring costs and lengthy schedule delays. In the case of Vogtle and V.C. Summer, costs doubled and construction time increased by more than three years, causing the reactor supplier Westinghouse [Cardwell & Soble, 2017] to declare bankruptcy (Westinghouse only began emerging from Chapter 11 protection in 2018) [Hals & DiNapoli, 2018]. The V. C. Summer project was ultimately abandoned in 2017 [Plumer, 2017]. New nuclear plant construction projects by French reactor suppliers Areva and EDF at Olkiluoto (Finland) [Rosendahl & Forsell, 2017], Flamanville (France) [Reuters, 2018], and Hinkley Point C (United Kingdom) [BBC News, 2017], have suffered similarly severe cost escalation and delays. Clearly, the goal of deploying new nuclear power plants at an overnight capital cost of less than $2,000 per electric kilowatt, as claimed by the North American and 573 ENERGY POLICY, ECONOMY AND LAW Energy Policy, Economy and Law Should Nuclear Energy Play a Role in a Carbon-Constrained World? ı Jacopo Buongiorno, Michael Corradini, John Parsons and David Petti