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About Drought's Drought & Water Scarcity Conference: addressing current & future challenges

March 20-21 2019 held at Pembroke College, University of Oxford. Your e-delegate pack, giving a comprehensive guide to the conference topics, speakers, abstracts, interactive displays, attendees and an overview of the projects that make up About Drought - the UK Drought & Water Scarcity Research Programme.

March 20-21 2019 held at Pembroke College, University of Oxford.
Your e-delegate pack, giving a comprehensive guide to the conference topics, speakers, abstracts, interactive displays, attendees and an overview of the projects that make up About Drought - the UK Drought & Water Scarcity Research Programme.

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<strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong>: <strong>addressing</strong><br />

<strong>current</strong> and <strong>future</strong> <strong>challenges</strong><br />

20 th -21 st March 2019<br />

Pembroke College, University of Oxford<br />

Pembroke Square, off St. Aldgates Street, Oxford, OX1 1DW<br />

Delegate Pack


Useful Information<br />

Venue<br />

Pembroke College is our venue for the whole event: the conference, accommodation, and the conference dinner.<br />

It is located in the city centre, on Pembroke Square which leads off from St. Aldates Street, Oxford, OX1 1DW. You enter via the<br />

Porter’s Lodge. The conference takes place in the Rokos Quad: ask the porter for directions, or follow the signs.<br />

For those who have booked B&B accommodation within Pembroke College as part of your registration package note that your<br />

room key will be available from the Porter’s Lodge from 2pm. There is a room in which to store luggage if needed: please ask the<br />

porters for directions. Check out is 9am.<br />

Registration and refreshments are available from 9.15am by the Pichette Auditorium on each day. The conference takes place over<br />

three floors in the same building. A lift is available.<br />

There is no dedicated poster viewing session so we encourage everyone to take the opportunity during the breaks, lunch and<br />

drinks reception to have a look at the posters.<br />

Travel Advice<br />

Click here for printable maps, directions and information<br />

about public transport.<br />

Arriving by train – The college is 15 minutes walk from the<br />

train station (Park End Street, OX1 1HS)<br />

Arriving by coach/bus – The Oxford Tube and the X90 run<br />

frequently from central London to Oxford. The Oxford Tube<br />

stops on St. Aldates street, very close to the College. From<br />

Heathrow, the Airline coach runs directly to Oxford. From<br />

London Stansted, National Express coaches run to Oxford<br />

via Luton Airport. All coach services terminate at Gloucester<br />

Green Bus Station (George St, OX1 2BX). The college is 10<br />

minutes walk away.<br />

Arriving by car – There is no parking available at the college<br />

so if arriving by car, please use one of the city’s Park & Ride<br />

schemes.<br />

Taxis – Are located at the railway station and the Gloucester<br />

Green Bus Station (George St, OX1 2BX). Here are some<br />

local firms: “001 Taxis” 01865 240000, “Go Green Taxis”<br />

01865 922222.<br />

Food & Drink<br />

Please bring your water bottle and re-usable cup to help<br />

minimise waste! This is because crockery cannot be taken<br />

into the auditorium and paper cups will be issued instead. As<br />

these cannot be recycled, a reusable cup is best if you have<br />

one. Refreshments will be served at registration and during<br />

breaks. Lunch is cafeteria style, in the College’s dining hall. All<br />

dietary requests have been noted. If you are unsure if<br />

something is suitable, the catering staff will be happy to advise.<br />

Everyone is invited to the drinks reception on Wednesday<br />

20 th March. For those who have booked, the <strong>Conference</strong><br />

Dinner will be held at 7.15pm on Wednesday 20 th March:<br />

please note that only those who included a ticket for the<br />

dinner as part of their registration package are able to attend.<br />

Medical Advice<br />

Non-emergency help – If you need non-emergency medical<br />

attention, ring the NHS helpline 111 from a UK phone. If you<br />

do not have a UK phone, you can call from the Porter’s<br />

Lodge. Speak to the Porters if you need first aid, or need to<br />

go to hospital but not in an ambulance. They will be happy to<br />

help. The number for the Porter’s Lodge is 01865 276444,<br />

If you need urgent medical attention, call the UK<br />

emergency number: 999. Please also tell the Porter’s<br />

Lodge so they can help you and guide the emergency<br />

services. The nearest Accident & Emergency Unit (A&E) is at<br />

the John Radcliffe Hospital, Headley Way, Headington,<br />

Oxford, OX3 9DU.


Contents<br />

2<br />

4<br />

5<br />

6<br />

7<br />

8<br />

12<br />

13<br />

27<br />

32<br />

33<br />

34<br />

35<br />

36<br />

37<br />

40<br />

45<br />

Useful Information<br />

Welcome<br />

UK <strong>Drought</strong> & <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> Programme<br />

<strong>Water</strong>-saving media campaign competition<br />

Audio Anecdotes – historic droughts from a human/social perspective<br />

Programme<br />

Session Chairs<br />

Speakers<br />

Posters<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> & <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> Projects<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> Risk and You (DRY)<br />

Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s<br />

IMPETUS<br />

MaRIUS<br />

ENDOWS<br />

Links to <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> Datasets<br />

Delegates<br />

Thank You


Welcome<br />

Welcome to the <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> 2019 and thank<br />

you to all the delegates, speakers and presenters in<br />

attendance. More than 100 people representing a very broad<br />

range of interests and expertise join us to connect with this<br />

truly interdisciplinary research initiative, the RCUK <strong>Drought</strong> &<br />

<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> Programme.<br />

In this e-delegate pack you will find information<br />

which illustrates the diverse, interdisciplinary and<br />

cross-sectoral content of <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> and gives<br />

a valuable insight into drought and water scarcity.<br />

We would like to thank all our speakers and<br />

facilitators who are sharing their expertise and all<br />

the delegates for your questions, comments and<br />

opinions which will feed into the direction of the<br />

programme, its outputs and <strong>future</strong> workshops,<br />

events and engagement activities.<br />

Have you viewed the <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />

Showcase video?<br />

The <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> video documentary features<br />

interviews with members of the programme and a<br />

wide range of stakeholders. Please watch it by<br />

clicking here and share it with your colleagues.<br />

You can view <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> videos on YouTube<br />

and listen to our fascinating podcasts of memories<br />

of UK droughts on SoundCloud. If you would like<br />

to feature any of these resources on your website<br />

or at an event, please contact the project office by<br />

emailing info@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>.info


UK <strong>Drought</strong> & <strong>Water</strong><br />

<strong>Scarcity</strong> Programme<br />

<strong>Drought</strong>s and water scarcity jointly pose a substantial threat to the environment, agriculture, infrastructure,<br />

society and culture in the UK, yet our ability to characterise and predict their occurrence, duration and<br />

intensity, as well as minimise their impacts, has often been inadequate.<br />

The UK <strong>Drought</strong>s & <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> research programme is a five-year interdisciplinary, £12 million+<br />

NERC programme in collaboration with ESRC, EPSRC, BBSRC and AHRC. It is supporting improved<br />

decision-making in relation to droughts and water scarcity by providing research that identifies, predicts and<br />

responds to the inter-relationships between their multiple drivers and impacts.<br />

The programme’s research is UK-focused, and contributes to NERC’s natural hazards and climate system<br />

strategic science themes.<br />

The final project, ENDOWS, (known as <strong>About</strong><br />

<strong>Drought</strong>) engages with stakeholders, practitioners<br />

and the public to involve them in the UK <strong>Drought</strong><br />

and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> programme and to disseminate<br />

information about the findings, outputs and datasets<br />

from the programme that everyone can use.<br />

SHOWCASE VIDEO<br />

You can find highlights from the <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />

Showcase by following this link:<br />

bit.ly/<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>Highlights


Competition<br />

Through our ENDOWS programme, students from<br />

the School of Communication Design at Falmouth<br />

University have been working with Dr Rebecca<br />

Pearce and Dr Cui Su, to shake up the way we talk<br />

about drought and water saving.<br />

Challenged to create a media campaign to raise<br />

awareness of water scarcity, drought or a watersaving<br />

product, the results have spanned both social<br />

media and traditional media platforms, embraced the<br />

humorous side of water-saving, and drawn in a new,<br />

younger audience with different attitudes to<br />

consumption and waste.<br />

See below for some of the campaign highlights.<br />

We’ve chosen to feature three of the campaigns at<br />

the conference. Visit the 1 st floor where Dannie &<br />

Max, Chiara & David, and Alex & Jacob will be<br />

delighted to talk you through their campaign ideas.<br />

Choose a song from the three-minute shower<br />

playlist, find your secret water hero identity or make<br />

a water-saving pledge. Check out the new visuals for<br />

a responsible water use traffic light system weather<br />

app extension.<br />

We are particularly keen to hear from any delegates<br />

who would like to roll-out the campaigns regionally<br />

or nationally.<br />

Chiara and David Dannie and Max Watson and Cox<br />

Judge for yourself – view the campaigns and meet the students behind them on the<br />

1 st floor in the Pembroke Allen & Overy Room


Audio Anecdotes<br />

“A lot of the<br />

heather moorland<br />

was destroyed.<br />

Lots of animals,<br />

sadly, lost their<br />

lives.”<br />

What’s it like to<br />

listen for a living?<br />

Rebecca Pearce<br />

Postdoctoral Research Fellow<br />

University of Exeter<br />

Between October 2014 and October 2017, Dr Rebecca Pearce travelled<br />

across Britain, tracing the impacts of historic droughts as they are recalled<br />

by people living in a diverse range of communities.<br />

Now you can join Rebecca in that experience by listening to a selection of<br />

extended interview highlights from the Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s project’s oral<br />

history collection, through our special conference sound installation of audio<br />

anecdotes.<br />

Pick up a set of headphones at our listening post in the foyer at any time<br />

over the two-day conference and choose from three different channels.<br />

Close your eyes and immerse yourself in the conversation, from horticulture<br />

to heatwaves and hydrology to heath fires. Sense the sweat, smoke and<br />

sunburn, imagine the colour contrast of carefully tended golf courses set<br />

against parched fields and moorlands.<br />

Learn something about the power of memory work, narratives and<br />

storytelling, through these three unique pieces.<br />

“… the [firefighter] leggings that we used to wear back in the 70s were<br />

made of plastic and the helmets, believe it or not, were made out of<br />

hardboard … you wouldn’t believe that they would make leggings out of<br />

plastic but they were yellow plastic and they used to melt very easily.”<br />

Western Morning News 2 nd October 1976<br />

Western Morning News 9 th September 1976<br />

Western Morning News 9 th September 1976<br />

Listen to the <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> Audio Anecdotes at the Listening Post in the foyer and<br />

meet Rebecca Pearce who conducted the interviews


Wednesday 20 th March<br />

Programme<br />

09.15<br />

10.00<br />

11.30<br />

11.50<br />

13.00<br />

13.50<br />

15.20<br />

15.40<br />

16.45<br />

16.50<br />

17.10<br />

19.15<br />

Registration – Foyer outside The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Tea & Coffee<br />

Plenary Session (The Pichette Auditorium)<br />

Welcome & notices: Helen Gavin (University of Oxford)<br />

Chair: Jamie Hannaford (CEH)<br />

Welcome to the ENDOWS Programme<br />

Guest Speaker: Henny van Lanen (Wageningen University)<br />

The 2018 NW European <strong>Drought</strong>: warnings from an extreme event<br />

Len Shaffrey (Reading University)<br />

Has climate change increased the chance of events like the 1976 North West European<br />

drought occurring?<br />

Guest Speaker: Rob Wilby (Loughborough University)<br />

Challenging the mantra of wetter winters, drier summers in the UK<br />

Break - Foyer<br />

Plenary Session (The Pichette Auditorium)<br />

Chair: Len Shaffrey (Reading University)<br />

Introduction<br />

Guest Speaker: Massimiliano Pasqui (CNR)<br />

A customisable drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting service to support different users’<br />

needs<br />

Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma (University of Bristol)<br />

Novel metric for water stress from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)<br />

satellite mission<br />

Pico pitches from poster presenters<br />

Lunch – The Hall<br />

Parallel Sessions (see following page)<br />

Room 1: Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium (Main auditorium)<br />

Room 2: <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts – Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor)<br />

Break - Foyer<br />

Parallel Sessions continued<br />

Sessions come back together in The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Closing Words<br />

Jamie Hannaford (CEH)<br />

Drinks Reception – Foyer • ALL WELCOME<br />

<strong>Conference</strong> Dinner – The Hall<br />

Please be seated by 19.15 as service will start promptly at 19.30. Only delegates who<br />

have booked places in advance can be accommodated at the dinner.


Wednesday 20 th March<br />

Afternoon Programme<br />

Room 1 - Pichette Auditorium: Climatology and Hydrology<br />

13.50<br />

14.00<br />

14.20<br />

14.40<br />

15.00<br />

15.20<br />

15.40<br />

15.45<br />

16.05<br />

16.25<br />

16.45<br />

Len Shaffrey (Reading University)<br />

Introduction<br />

Jamie Hannaford (on behalf of Katie Smith) (CEH)<br />

Reconstructing historic flow data to inform management of <strong>future</strong> hydrological extremes<br />

Lucy Barker (CEH)<br />

How severe were historic hydrological droughts in the UK? Insights from a systematic characterisation and<br />

ranking of events back to 1891<br />

John Bloomfield (BGS)<br />

Characterising the effects of major episodes of drought on groundwater at national to continental scale<br />

Matt Fry (CEH)<br />

The Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s Inventory: an accessible archive of past drought impact information for the UK<br />

from diverse documentary sources<br />

Break - Foyer<br />

Jamie Hannaford (CEH)<br />

Introduction<br />

Elizabeth Brock (Met Office) & Katharine Smart (Anglian <strong>Water</strong>)<br />

What does stochastic rainfall generation and Bayesian extreme value analysis mean for <strong>Water</strong><br />

Resource Planning<br />

Christopher Nankervis (Weather Logistics Ltd)<br />

Use of Copernicus seasonal climate forecast model data to improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts:<br />

the UK Summer Rainfall Insights project<br />

Ragab Ragab (CEH)<br />

Study of drought risk in different UK catchments under <strong>future</strong> climate and land use changes<br />

Sessions come back together in The Pichette Room (main auditorium)<br />

Room 2 - The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor): <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts<br />

13.50<br />

14.00<br />

14.20<br />

14.40<br />

15.00<br />

15.20<br />

15.40<br />

15.45<br />

16.05<br />

16.25<br />

16.45<br />

Ian Holman (Cranfield University)<br />

Introduction<br />

Tom King (Lancaster University)<br />

The effect of the hot dry conditions of 2018 on natural ecosystems: findings from Wytham Woods,<br />

Oxfordshire<br />

Jill Thompson (on behalf of Sarah Ayling) (CEH)<br />

Impact of reduced rainfall on the growth and development of plants in British semi-natural grassland:<br />

a rainfall manipulation study<br />

Daniela Anghileri (University of Southampton)<br />

Strengthening research capabilities for <strong>addressing</strong> water and food security <strong>challenges</strong> in sub-Saharan Africa<br />

Stephen McGuire (SEPA)<br />

Assessing the impacts of water scarcity in North East Scotland through the summer of 2018<br />

Break<br />

Nevil Quinn (UWE)<br />

Introduction<br />

Frederick Otu-Larbi (Lancaster University)<br />

Modelling the effects of drought stress on photosynthesis and latent heat fluxes<br />

Susan Davies (University of Edinburgh)<br />

Effective risk management against threat of drought impacts on the Scottish timber industry<br />

Peter Kettlewell (Harper Adams University)<br />

Mitigating drought impact on crop yield by applying film-forming polymers<br />

Sessions come back together in The Pichette Auditorium (main auditorium)


Thursday 21 st March<br />

Programme<br />

09.15<br />

10.00<br />

11.35<br />

11.55<br />

13.10<br />

14.00<br />

15.30<br />

15.50<br />

16.55<br />

17.00<br />

Registration – Foyer outside The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Tea & Coffee<br />

Plenary Session (The Pichette Auditorium)<br />

Welcome & notices: Helen Gavin (University of Oxford)<br />

Chair: Nevil Quinn (UWE)<br />

Introduction<br />

Guest Speaker: Kerstin Stahl (University of Freiburg)<br />

Customising drought indices to improve drought impact monitoring and prediction<br />

Guest Speaker: Mike Morecroft (Natural England)<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> impacts on the natural environment and lessons for climate change adaptation<br />

Guest Speaker: Ian Holman (Cranfield University)<br />

Taking lessons from the 2018 drought forward into increased drought resilience in the<br />

agricultural sector<br />

Break - Foyer<br />

Plenary Session<br />

Chair: Lindsey McEwen (UWE)<br />

Introduction<br />

Guest Speaker: Anne van Loon (Birmingham University)<br />

Feedbacks between drought and society<br />

Guest Speaker: Victoria Williams (Environment Agency)<br />

The UK 2018 dry weather situation: looking ahead to 2019<br />

Pico pitches from poster presenters<br />

Lunch – The Hall<br />

Parallel Sessions (see following page)<br />

Room 1: <strong>Drought</strong> Planning & Management – Pichette Auditorium (main auditorium)<br />

Room 2: <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts, Communities, Risk Perception & Communication – Harold<br />

Lee Room (2 nd floor)<br />

Break – The Foyer<br />

Parallel Sessions continued<br />

Room 1: <strong>Drought</strong> Planning & Management<br />

Room 2: <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts<br />

Sessions come back together in The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Closing Words<br />

Ian Holman (Cranfield University)


Thursday 21 st March<br />

Afternoon Programme<br />

Room 1 - Pichette Auditorium: <strong>Drought</strong> Planning & Management<br />

14.00<br />

14.10<br />

14.30<br />

14.50<br />

15.10<br />

15.30<br />

15.50<br />

15.55<br />

16.15<br />

16.35<br />

16.55<br />

Jamie Hannaford (CEH)<br />

Introduction<br />

Lindsey McEwen (UWE)<br />

Integrating science and narratives: a new interdisciplinary approach to develop drought mitigation<br />

strategies<br />

Granville Davies & Miranda Foster (Yorkshire <strong>Water</strong>)<br />

<strong>Water</strong> resources in Yorkshire, UK in 2018: drought management, perception and communication<br />

Amanda Fencl (on behalf of Ruth Langridge ) (University of California)<br />

Groundwater management in planning for drought: experience from California, USA<br />

Mark Smith (Hydro-Logic Services Ltd)<br />

Recent trends in water resources planning and management<br />

Break<br />

Lindsey McEwen (UWE)<br />

Introduction<br />

Sevilay Topcu (Cukurova University)<br />

Implementing <strong>Drought</strong> Management in Turkey: an institutional pathology<br />

Amanda Fencl (University of California)<br />

Interconnections between Research on Groundwater, <strong>Drought</strong> and Climate Change<br />

Caroline King (TBI) & Daniel Tsegai (GeoData Institute)<br />

A review of methods for drought impact and vulnerability assessment<br />

Sessions come back together in The Pichette Room (main auditorium)<br />

Room 2 - The Harold Lee Room: <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts/Communities,<br />

Risk Perception & Communication<br />

14.00<br />

14.10<br />

14.30<br />

14.50<br />

15.10<br />

15.30<br />

15.50<br />

15.55<br />

16.15<br />

16.35<br />

16.55<br />

Rebecca Pearce (Exeter University)<br />

Introduction<br />

Kevin Grecksch (University of Oxford)<br />

Achieving water efficiency through social norms in the public sector<br />

Ruth Larbey (UWE)<br />

Engaging consumers around water scarcity and water-saving<br />

Sandra Santos (Wageningen University)<br />

Improving institutional frameworks integrating local initiatives from communities exposed to drought and<br />

water scarcity in Ecuador<br />

Antonia Liguori (Loughborough University)<br />

Learning around ‘storying water’ to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK drought<br />

risk management<br />

Break<br />

Ian Holman (Cranfield University)<br />

Introduction<br />

Paul Whitehead (University of Oxford)<br />

Impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers, wetlands and delta systems<br />

Cedric Laize (CEH)<br />

Relationship between a drought-orientated streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators<br />

Jaeyoung Lee (University of Oxford)<br />

<strong>Water</strong> quality modelling in the Severn-Thames river systems and the impact of a water transfer in drought<br />

Sessions come back together in The Pichette Room (main auditorium)


Session Chairs<br />

Helen Gavin<br />

Oxford University<br />

Environmental<br />

scientist with the<br />

Environmental Change<br />

Institute & MaRIUS<br />

Project Manager<br />

Nevil Quinn<br />

Associate Professor in<br />

Applied Hydrology at<br />

University of the West<br />

of England (UWE)<br />

<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />

Science Coordinator<br />

Jamie Hannaford<br />

Principal Hydrologist<br />

at Centre for Ecology<br />

& Hydrology (CEH)<br />

PI on <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />

& Lead PI on Historic<br />

<strong>Drought</strong>s<br />

Lindsey McEwen<br />

Professor in<br />

Environmental<br />

Management at UWE<br />

& Lead PI Project DRY<br />

Len Shaffrey<br />

Senior Scientist at the<br />

National Centre for<br />

Atmospheric Science<br />

(NCAS) & Professor<br />

of Climate Science<br />

University of Reading<br />

PI on IMPETUS<br />

Rebecca Pearce<br />

Research Fellow,<br />

University of Exeter<br />

<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> Social<br />

Science Coordinator<br />

Ian Holman<br />

Professor of<br />

Integrated Land &<br />

<strong>Water</strong> Management<br />

Cranfield University &<br />

Agricultural lead on<br />

Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s


Speakers<br />

Day 1: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Jamie Hannaford CEH<br />

Welcome to the ENDOWS Programme<br />

The <strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> (DWS) Programme is a major interdisciplinary research programme funded by<br />

NERC, ESRC, EPSRC, BBRC and AHRC. The Programme commenced in 2014 and ends in 2019 and is now in the final<br />

phase, a knowledge exchange project called ENDOWS (Engaging Diverse stakeholders and publics with outputs from<br />

the <strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> Programme). This presentation will illustrate how ENDOWS is working with a very<br />

diverse stakeholder community to exploit the datasets, models and methodologies developed within the DWS<br />

programme to develop tools and guidance for improved drought management. ENDOWS is structured into various<br />

sectoral workstreams (water supply; agriculture; environment; business; communities). A key focus of this presentation<br />

will be on how ENDOWS is developing methodologies for long-term drought and water resources planning (e.g. the<br />

development of national, consistent ‘<strong>Drought</strong> Libraries’ and national-scale hydrological and water supply system<br />

models) to support the <strong>current</strong> drive towards more integrated regional- and national-scale water resources planning.<br />

The talk also illustrates how ENDOWS is enhancing operational drought management through improved monitoring<br />

and early warning of drought, and how this is being co-developed with stakeholders during the ongoing dry weather in<br />

2018. Various other sectoral applications will then be highlighted through examples. Finally, the talk will discuss the<br />

innovative approaches being developed to ensure the vast amount of data being generated by the programme are<br />

readily accessible to the community.<br />

Henny van Lanen Wageningen University & Research<br />

The 2018 NW European <strong>Drought</strong>: warnings from an extreme event<br />

Last year Europe was hit again by a severe drought, particularly north-western countries suffered. It became apparent<br />

to a wider public that droughts and associated water shortages are not solely preserved for the Mediterranean.<br />

Moreover, drought projections increased concerns. A high pressure system above Scandinavia kept depressions<br />

causing rain at distance and dry and warm air masses were transported to NW Europe. This weather circulation type<br />

is not uncommon for the region, but in 2018 it appeared to be very persistent and lasted several months. Several<br />

temperature records were broken, the climatological water deficit exceeded the driest on record in some countries,<br />

and significantly affected the water system. Not surprisingly, a wide range of impacts was reported. <strong>Drought</strong>, as a<br />

natural hazard cannot be prevented. However, people are challenged to minimize socio-economic and environmental<br />

impacts. An analysis of management of the 2018 drought learnt that not everything was in order everywhere. It was<br />

found that monitoring of hydrological variables is not targeted to drought, but in NW European countries it is biased<br />

towards floods. Usually the monitoring puts more emphasis on surface water than groundwater. Impact minimization<br />

also requires seasonal hydrological drought forecasting. Use of these forecasts is largely underdeveloped by lots of<br />

practitioners. Monitoring and forecast data are hard to obtain, which is meant to avoid panic among the public.<br />

Interaction between social and more conventional media helped to expose these data. Development of drought<br />

management plans is a rather slow process that takes years, which cannot be speeded up to cope with an emerging<br />

drought. Findings from the 2018 drought should warn policy-makers and water managers to increase preparedness<br />

and (i) to take existing scientific knowledge more quickly on board (e.g. seasonal forecasting), (ii) to target monitoring<br />

more to drought, (iii) to equally balance between surface water and groundwater, and (iv) to make data better<br />

accessible. We also learnt that the academic community should progress on: (i) drought impact forecasting rather than<br />

only hazard forecasting, (ii) including drought in a multi-hazard setting, and to improve knowledge on droughtgenerating<br />

processes and modelling.<br />

Len Shaffrey NCAS, University of Reading<br />

Has climate change increased the chance of events like the 1976 North West European drought<br />

occurring?<br />

The 1976 NW European summertime drought was preceded by a sustained dry spell through the winter and spring of<br />

1975 and 1976. The summer of 1976 was characterised by a continuation of the dry spell combined with an extreme<br />

heatwave. The combination of heat and lack of water had numerous impacts across many sectors including public<br />

health, agriculture and water resource management. Understanding how climate change might be impacting on the<br />

frequency or severity of extreme events is a question of interest to water resource managers, regulators and the<br />

general public. In this study, climate model experiments have been performed to assess whether climate change is<br />

increasing the probability that events like the 1976 North West European might occur again. These experiments<br />

suggest that increased anthropogenic forcing since the 1970s has dramatically increased the probability of<br />

summertime heat waves. However, climate change has also decreased the probability of an extended winter and<br />

spring dry spell preceding a summertime drought. The combined effect of climate change on temperatures and rainfall<br />

is that an event such as the 1976 North West European drought is substantially more likely in the present-day climate<br />

compared to the 1970s.<br />

Rob Wilby Loughborough<br />

Challenging the mantra of wetter winters, drier summers in the UK<br />

My talk will draw upon a recent re-examination of the widely adopted EWP series, and constituent records, led by<br />

Conor Murphy at Maynooth. I will also refer to other work that I have done on evaluating rare droughts from historic<br />

records, as part of the approach now implemented by UK water companies in their drought resilience planning.


Speakers<br />

Day 1: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium continued<br />

Massimiliano Pasqui CNR (Italian National Research Council)<br />

A customizable drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting service to support different users’<br />

needs<br />

Massimiliano Pasqui is a climate scientist whose main interests are numerical modelling in support of weather<br />

forecasts, climate data analysis, seasonal forecast predictability and climate change impacts. He participates in a<br />

number of national and international projects in these fields. He is the author of numerous scientific papers on<br />

international journals/books on atmospheric science and climate change mechanisms and impacts in the<br />

Mediterranean basin and Africa. In the last decade he has been engaged as a contract professor in meteorology,<br />

numerical modelling and climatology courses at several Italian universities.<br />

Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma University of Bristol<br />

Novel metric for water stress from the Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite<br />

mission<br />

The GRACE satellite mission recorded time-variability in Earth’s gravity for more than a decade, which can be directly<br />

related to changes in water stored near the surface of the Earth. GRACE maps of water mass change are available at<br />

monthly time scale and have been used to validate hydrology models, close regional water budgets, estimate<br />

groundwater changes and map water stress. Usually the GRACE time series is decomposed into a linear trend and a<br />

periodic signal and then the magnitude of the trend is used to infer the severity of water mass in a region. In this<br />

study we show that such an approach is misleading because catchment scale hydrology also contains inter-annual<br />

signals with decadal frequencies that are also recorded by GRACE. Since the quality-controlled GRACE record is only<br />

about 13 years long, the long wavelength inter-annual signal cannot be co-estimated and will contaminate estimates of<br />

linear trend. Furthermore, the inter-annual behaviour of each catchment is different and, therefore, a catchment<br />

should not be evaluated against other catchments but with respect to its natural variability. Therefore, to quantify<br />

water-stress comprehensively, we propose a novel metric for water stress that uses GRACE trend and inter-annual<br />

variability from a calibrated 62-years-long hydrology model time series. We obtain a global water stress map that<br />

differs markedly from previous GRACE assessments. We find that more than 1.5 billion people in 39 river catchments<br />

are facing severe water stress and this number will rise by 50% in 2025 if <strong>current</strong> trends continue.<br />

Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium<br />

Jamie Hannaford presenting for Katie Smith CEH<br />

Reconstructing historic flow data to inform management<br />

Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and post- observations, which enable greater<br />

understanding of past hydrological behaviour and potential <strong>future</strong>s. We outline a new multi-objective calibration<br />

method which was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK. The calibrations were used to reconstruct river<br />

flows back to 1891 to provide a much longer view of past hydrological variability given the brevity of most UK river<br />

flow records which commenced post-1960. This work provides an exemplar framework for calibrating catchment<br />

models for use in multiple applications. The ~125 year spatially and temporally consistent reconstructed flow dataset<br />

derived for this study will also allow comprehensive quantitative assessments of past UK drought events, as well as<br />

long-term analyses of hydrological variability that have not been previously possible. This will allow water resource<br />

managers to better plan for extreme events, and build more resilient systems for the <strong>future</strong>.<br />

Lucy Barker CEH<br />

How severe were historic hydrological droughts in the UK? Insights from a systematic<br />

characterisation and ranking of events back to 1891<br />

The relative shortness of river flow records in the UK means that it is not possible to characterise hydrological<br />

droughts prior to the 1960s in many places across the country. We know from individual long river flow records,<br />

regional flow reconstructions and qualitative data that severe hydrological droughts occurred in the late 19th and<br />

early 20th Century; but until recently it hasn’t been possible to identify and characterise these droughts across the<br />

UK. New daily river flow reconstructions for 303 catchments across the UK, dating back to 1891 have enabled<br />

national scale, drought identification and characterisation. For 108 near-natural catchments across the UK, using the<br />

Standardised Streamflow Index for accumulation periods of 3 and 12 months, hydrological drought events over<br />

~125 years from 1891 to 2015 have been systematically identified, characterised and ranked. Extracted events were<br />

ranked according to four characteristics: duration, accumulated deficit, mean deficit and maximum intensity in order<br />

to assess how the events compare when different aspects of severity were considered. These results provide an<br />

unprecedented view of drought severity in the UK, shedding light on those events outside of the observed period<br />

(e.g. the early 1920s) and that are poorly documented in qualitative sources (for example the droughts of the 1940s).<br />

This extended understanding of past droughts is crucial to inform the planning and management of <strong>future</strong> events,<br />

aiding the development of scenarios outside the range of those seen in observed data and providing benchmarks<br />

against which to compare <strong>current</strong> and <strong>future</strong> events.


Speakers<br />

Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium continued<br />

Dr John Bloomfield British Geological Survey<br />

Characterising effects of major episodes of drought on groundwater at national to continental<br />

scale<br />

Understanding the impact of climate change on borehole yields from fractured aquifers is essential for <strong>future</strong> water<br />

resources planning and management. Although the impact of changes in hydraulic conductivity with depth (VKD) on<br />

groundwater levels is well established, the relative significance of climate change and VKD on borehole yield estimates<br />

is poorly understood. We hypothesize that VKD exerts a significant additional control on borehole yields under<br />

climate change which has not been considered in yield assessments to date. We developed a radial groundwater flow<br />

model of an idealised pumping borehole in the fractured chalk aquifer of South East England and applied 11 VKD<br />

profiles based on a simple conceptual representation of variability in hydraulic conductivity with depth in the chalk.<br />

For each VKD profile, we applied 20 climate scenarios and six constant pumping rates for the period 1962–2014. We<br />

then estimated borehole yields based on the derived lowest pumping water levels during key drought years (e.g.<br />

1976). We show that VKD is more significant (p < 0.0001) than changes in climate (p > 0.1) in controlling lowest<br />

pumping groundwater levels. Hydraulic conductivity is as significant a control as climate on borehole yields, although<br />

responses are highly non-linear associated with pumping water level-pumping rate curves intersecting key yield<br />

constraints (e.g. pump intake depth, major inflow horizons). It is recommended that variations in hydraulic<br />

conductivity with depth are taken into consideration in <strong>future</strong> assessments of borehole yields under climate change.<br />

The approach presented is generic and can be applied across different aquifers where vertical heterogeneity is<br />

present.<br />

Matt Fry CEH<br />

The Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s Inventory: an accessible archive of past drought impact information for the<br />

UK from diverse documentary sources (Matt Fry, Nuria Bachiller-Jareno, Carmen Dayrell, Helen<br />

Baker, Delores Rey Vicario, Bettina Lange, Rebecca Pearce, Lucy Barker, Steve Turner, Simon<br />

Parry, Jamie Hannaford)<br />

Documentary sources can provide a wealth of information on the occurrence, severity and impact of past droughts.<br />

Sources including religious texts, financial records, newspapers, administrative accounts and early meteorological<br />

commentaries have been used to demonstrate the reconstructions of past drought, providing evidence of spatiotemporal<br />

variability in drought during periods with little or no climatological records (Brazdil et al). The content of<br />

documentary sources can also provide information on the contemporary impacts of drought that is not available from<br />

meteorological or hydrological records and can therefore be used to corroborate existing information on drought<br />

severity and provide a basis for understanding the evolution of resilience to drought in human systems across<br />

different sectors. The Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s Inventory is a collation of instances of reporting on UK drought from diverse<br />

sources including legislative records (Hansard), agricultural press (Farmers Weekly, Farmers Guardian), contemporary<br />

drought reports, personal histories and historic newspapers from 1800 to 2015. The Inventory has been created<br />

through a variety of methods appropriate to the volume and focus of the original sources, based on manual curation<br />

of drought-related articles (for the legislative texts and agricultural media) to automated processing (historic<br />

newspapers and online bulletins). The resulting information has been consistently formatted to enable comparison<br />

between these “sectors”, following that of the existing European <strong>Drought</strong> Impact Report Inventory (Stahl et al),<br />

allowing for comparison with other databases of recent drought impacts. Geospatial information has been extracted<br />

from impact texts where possible to locate the impact and allow for comparison with spatial extents of droughts in<br />

the hydro-meteorological records. More than 50,000 drought impacts have been collated and the datasets archived in<br />

publicly accessible research archives. An online tool has been created to enable the Inventory to be searched by date,<br />

location, or search term (e.g. “Barley”, “Reservoir”), allowing the temporal and spatial occurrence of drought from<br />

the viewpoint of impacts to be visualised. This tool has potential for use for educational purposes as well as by<br />

drought researchers and historians.


Speakers<br />

Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium continued<br />

Elizabeth Brock Met Office & Katharine Smart Anglian <strong>Water</strong><br />

What does stochastic rainfall generation and Bayesian extreme value analysis mean for <strong>Water</strong><br />

Resource Planning<br />

For the <strong>Water</strong> Resources Management Plan 2019 (WRMP19), Anglian <strong>Water</strong> assessed the return period of historical<br />

and stochastic droughts with particular reference to ‘severe’ or 1 in 200 year return period events. This required reanalysis<br />

of historical events using up-to-date extreme value techniques, as well as the development and analysis of<br />

stochastically-generated droughts which were different in nature and severity to historical references. This talk<br />

discusses the Met Office’s role as a leader in weather and climate science, with advanced expertise in statistical<br />

analysis of extreme events such as multi-year drought, in providing supporting information to Anglian <strong>Water</strong> for their<br />

WRMP19 which addresses <strong>current</strong> and <strong>future</strong> risk of water scarcity in their catchment areas. This includes: An<br />

evaluation of a stochastic rainfall dataset using a spatially and temporally coherent generator1 in the context of<br />

drought planning and an outline of further statistical methods that were applied to the generator configuration<br />

regarding application of an atmospheric climate pressure index; Discussion of the difficulties associated with evaluation<br />

of return levels for multi-year drought events and introduction of the prototype Bayesian extreme value analysis<br />

method it has used in order to overcome these <strong>challenges</strong>; Potential further developments of the Bayesian Extreme<br />

Value analysis technique and other statistical analysis techniques available to drought planners to assess drought in the<br />

context of a changing climate will be discussed; A final word on methods applied to the rainfall generator dataset so<br />

that Anglian <strong>Water</strong> could evaluate the potential risk associated with <strong>future</strong> climate change using UKCP09 and how<br />

this might differ given the more recent outputs of the UKCP18 project. 1. Serinaldi, F. and Kilsby, C.G., 2012. A<br />

modular class of multisite monthly rainfall generators for water resources management and impact studies. Journal of<br />

Hydrology 464-465, p. 528-540<br />

Dr Christopher Nankervis Weather Logistics Ltd<br />

Use of Copernicus seasonal climate forecast model data to improve the accuracy of long-term<br />

forecasts: the UK Summer Rainfall Insights project<br />

Summer rainfall variability is the most common cause of agricultural losses, accounting for production losses of up to<br />

30%. Salads and field vegetables are especially prone to dry summers with demand on water resources. Combined<br />

with high temperatures that stunt crop growth, summer droughts can wreak havoc for the supply of fresh produce to<br />

our supermarkets. With access to Copernicus seasonal climate forecast model data, we now have the ability to<br />

improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts by combining open source model data with field- level climate and<br />

historical daily data records. This stands to revolutionise the way that farmers operate to better optimise their crop<br />

production through actionable decisions. With more accurate long-term forecasts large-scale growers can better<br />

select sites based on soil moisture availability, delay sowing, select drought tolerant crops or better plan their water<br />

resources. The result is a <strong>future</strong> of farming less vulnerable to the seasonal weather variability, higher yields and<br />

sustainable produce for British supermarkets. Our European Space Agency-funded project, UK Summer Rainfall<br />

Insights (UKSRI), aims to develop a new summer rainfall forecasting service for release in summer 2019. This will<br />

provide daily rainfall analytics at the field-level, providing early information about upcoming droughts in the UK.<br />

Ragab Ragab CEH<br />

Study of the drought risk in different UK catchments under <strong>future</strong> climate and land use changes.<br />

Ragab, Ragab; Afzal, Muhammad1; Blake, James1 and Kaelin, Alexandra.1<br />

This study aimed at investigating the impact of climate and land-use changes on drought severity for different<br />

catchments across the UK from North to South and from West to East namely, Eden, Don, Frome, Bevills Leam,<br />

Pang, Ebbw and Fowey. A physically based distributed catchment-scale model (DiCaSM) was applied. The catchment<br />

area of the studied catchments varied from over 150 km2 to over 300 km2. In all studied catchments the severity of<br />

the historic droughts was most obvious in the 1970s, as well as those of the late 1980s, the 1990s, 2003 and 2012.<br />

The severity of the drought varied from one catchment to another, mainly due to the geographical location of the<br />

catchment, seasonal variability of the rainfall, prevailing temperature and land use practices. The DiCaSM model was<br />

calibrated using the measured stream flow. For most of the studied catchments the Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency factor<br />

(NSE), as an indicator of goodness of fit, gave a value of above 0.9 during the model calibration period, and a NSE<br />

value above 0.80 over the entire study period (approx.1961-2012) during the validation process. The uncertainty<br />

analysis supported the good model performance result as the measured streamflow fell within the model envelope of<br />

5 and 95% likelihood-weighted quantiles with acceptable containment ratio (CR).<br />

[Continued overleaf]


Speakers<br />

Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium continued<br />

[Ragab continued from previous page]<br />

For the <strong>future</strong> time periods (the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s), under UKCP09 low, medium and high emission scenarios,<br />

annual river flow decreased up to 10% with significant variation between the seasons. For instance, summer stream<br />

flow under high emission scenarios for the South-East catchments decreased by 50% by the end of century whereas in<br />

the North the decrease was slightly below 30%. Although climate models projected an increase in winter<br />

precipitation, this increase was outbalanced by the increase in evapotranspiration. Overall, in all studied catchments<br />

water losses by evapotranspiration significantly increased leading to an increase in soil moisture deficit and a decrease<br />

in the streamflow and groundwater recharge. Modelling results revealed that under the climate change projections,<br />

soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration would increase under medium and high emission scenarios; also the<br />

frequency and severity of the drought would be higher. The impacts of the land use changes on water resources, such<br />

as stream flow and ground water, had less severe impact than the impact of climate change. However, for sustainable<br />

food production, there is a need to replace highly water- consuming crops with drought tolerant crops in order to<br />

produce adequate yield and minimize the impact of climate change. These findings could help in planning water<br />

resources, devise better water management and provide important information for decision makers, water managers,<br />

policy makers and stakeholders, as well as in mitigating the climate change impact on water resources availability.<br />

Day 1: Parallel Session 2 <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts – The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor)<br />

Kirsti Ashworth Lancaster University<br />

The effects of the hot, dry conditions of 2018 on natural ecosystems: findings from Wytham<br />

Woods, Oxfordshire<br />

On 22nd June, 2018, the UK Met Office officially declared a heatwave across the British Isles. Hot, dry conditions<br />

persisted in southern England until 8th August with temperatures amongst the highest recorded and many areas<br />

experiencing ~60 consecutive “dry days”. While the impacts of these conditions on agricultural productivity were<br />

widely reported, less attention was given to the effects on natural ecosystems. Here we report the findings of a<br />

measurement campaign in Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire, during the 2018 growth season (May-Oct). Oxford<br />

University’s long-term ecological research site at Wytham Woods is a mixed deciduous woodland, dominated by<br />

native UK tree species, particularly oak, beech and hazel. Measurements were made at multiple heights from a 15m<br />

high walk-up platform in a closed-canopy old-growth area. Concentrations of CO2 and the plant volatile isoprene<br />

were measured continuously at 0.53 (ground-level), 7.3 (understorey), 13.2 (mid-crown) and 15.3m (top of canopy)<br />

above ground. These were supplemented with occasional leaf gas exchange and volatile sampling via a LiCor-6400.<br />

These samples were subsequently analysed in the laboratory by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS).<br />

Key meteorological variables (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), relative humidity and<br />

windspeed) were also recorded. Satellite retrievals of normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and<br />

photochemical reflectance index (PRI) were used as an indicator of ecosystem health. Overall we found that volatile<br />

emissions tracked photosynthesis early in the season, increasing substantially as temperatures rose. As the drought<br />

intensified, photosynthesis and isoprene emissions abruptly dropped, indicating the woodland had reached a threshold<br />

of water availability. Following this, isoprene emissions became decoupled from gas exchange and by August had<br />

virtually ceased. Both NDVI and PRI showed the same time series, with a marked drop coinciding with the<br />

“shutdown” observed on the ground. While canopy-scale photosynthesis recovered quickly to pre-drought levels on<br />

re-wetting, isoprene emissions did not resume suggesting depletion of carbon stores within the trees. Our results are<br />

consistent with the hypothesis that isoprene protects plants from oxidative stress associated with high temperature<br />

but they additionally indicate a tipping point beyond which plants no longer invest in isoprene synthesis, thereby<br />

potentially exacerbating temperature effects during prolonged heatwaves.<br />

Jill Thompson CEH<br />

Impact of reduced rainfall on the growth and development of plants in British semi-natural<br />

grassland: a rainfall manipulation study<br />

As part of the <strong>Drought</strong> Risk and You project (DRY project) a field experiment was set up on two locations within<br />

each of three river catchments; the Bristol Frome, Sheffield Don and Fife Eden. Metal frames were used to support<br />

clear Perspex gutters that were arranged so as to intercept approximately 50% of incident rainfall. Similar frames but<br />

with roofs that allowed all rainfall to pass through allowed us to assess any effects of the frames and roofs, while plots<br />

without frames and roofs were untreated controls. The experiment ran for three years from October 2015 to<br />

October 2018. Automatic weather stations were used to record weather conditions, especially rainfall and soil<br />

moisture within the experimental plots. Plant growth and development was monitored by biomass sampling, recording<br />

species composition and % cover and measurement of the height of selected species. Preliminary examination of the<br />

data from the Frome catchment suggests that where the sward has a rich species composition it was able to tolerate<br />

reduced water supply over the three year period, and there were subtle differences in the response of different<br />

species at the sites.


Speakers<br />

Day 1: Parallel Session 2 <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts – The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor) continued<br />

Daniela Anghileri University of Southampton<br />

Strengthening research capabilities for <strong>addressing</strong> water and food security <strong>challenges</strong> in<br />

sub-Saharan Africa<br />

Most of the communities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism for<br />

their livelihoods and, as such, they are very vulnerable to weather and hydrological variability. <strong>Drought</strong>s are indeed<br />

amongst the main causes of fatalities and economic losses in SSA. To effectively address water and food security<br />

<strong>challenges</strong>, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions between the available water resources, including<br />

both blue and green water; the resilience and coping strategies of the local communities to water scarcity and the<br />

large scale impact of national and regional policies on food availability and access. The project “Building research<br />

capacity for sustainable water and food security in drylands of sub-Saharan Africa” (BRECcIA) is a collaborative<br />

research programme which aims at advancing knowledge of food and water security in three SSA countries: Ghana,<br />

Kenya and Malawi. The project is funded under the Research Councils of United Kingdom (RCUK) Global Challenges<br />

Research Fund (GCRF) programme call for growing research capability to meet the <strong>challenges</strong> faced by developing<br />

countries (GROW). BRECcIA comprises 6 universities located in 4 countries (UK, Malawi, Kenya and Ghana), and<br />

partnerships with 8 international organisations to carry out impactful and high- quality research aiming at positive<br />

changes in policy and practice for sustainable water and food security. This contribution presents the BRECcIA<br />

project, the methodological framework to address water and food security based on the co-production of the<br />

research questions and activities among the different institutions involved in the project and a series of different<br />

stakeholders (from local communities to policy makers), its expected outcomes and impacts, and some preliminary<br />

results on water resources and drought assessment in the three SSA countries.<br />

Stephen McGuire The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)<br />

Assessing the impacts of water scarcity in North East Scotland through the summer of 2018. R.<br />

Gosling*, S. McGuire*, I. Milne* and M. Wann* * Scottish Environment Protection Agency,<br />

Graesser House, Fodderty Way DINGWALL IV15 9XB<br />

The summer of 2018 saw the most prolonged water scarcity event in North East Scotland for decades. Coming off<br />

the back of two consecutive dry winters, low summer rainfall accompanied by higher than average temperatures led<br />

to widespread impacts across the region. The River Spey was at or below a very low flow level (Q95) for 76 days in a<br />

row, the longest such period in its 66-year record. Furthermore, the period of soil moisture deficit across the region<br />

stretched from mid-April to mid-November, a full month longer than in the hot, dry summer of 1976. This paper<br />

presents some of the record-breaking statistics of the 2018 event and reports on the evidence of both ecological and<br />

socio-economic impacts that resulted from it. These impacts ranged from severe wetted river habitat shrinkage to<br />

high water temperatures and fish deaths, and from the cessation of whisky production to crop failure and private<br />

water supply issues. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has a key role to play in reporting water scarcity<br />

information, coordinating the collection of evidence and liaising with water users where action needs to be taken to<br />

protect the water resource and water environment and maintain supplies for as long as possible. These actions are<br />

set out in Scotland’s National <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> plan and this paper will look at the implementation of this plan in its first<br />

major test since its adoption.<br />

Frederick Otu-Larbi Lancaster University<br />

Modelling the effects of drought stress on photosynthesis and latent heat fluxes. Frederick Otu-<br />

Larbi (1), Adriano Conte (2), Kirsti Ashworth(1), Oliver Wild(1), Silvano Fares(2) (1) Lancaster<br />

University, United Kingdom (2) Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Italy<br />

<strong>Water</strong> availability is an important factor in plant processes such as photosynthesis, transpiration and carbon<br />

assimilation. Plants exposed to drought stress show diminished growth and productivity. However, ecosystems that<br />

are routinely subjected to drought stress have developed adaptations to minimise the impacts of low water<br />

availability. Mediterranean climates are characterised by high temperatures and prolonged droughts during the<br />

vegetative season, making them ideal for studies that focus on modelling the impact of water deficit on plant<br />

physiological processes. We incorporate an empirical formulation to account for water stress into three methods of<br />

estimating plant physiological processes within a one-dimensional canopy-exchange model (FORest Canopy-<br />

Atmosphere Transfer; FORCAsT): the empirical Jarvis-type model (JV) and the semi-empirical approaches developed<br />

by Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB) and Medlyn (MD). We tested our models with data from two forest sites with<br />

Mediterranean climates where continuous measurements of plant physiological parameters such as latent heat (LE)<br />

fluxes and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) have been ongoing for several years: a Holm oak forest located inside<br />

the Presidential Estate of Castelporziano (CPZ), Rome, Italy and a Ponderosa pine forest at Blodgett, on the<br />

California Sierra Mountains, USA. We evaluate the ability of each model formulation to estimate latent heat fluxes and<br />

gross primary productivity (GPP) at each of these sites, first without and then with the impact of soil moisture deficit..<br />

Our results show that for both sites, the inclusion of the effects of low soil water availability in the summer improves<br />

model estimates of LE and GPP. This agrees with previous findings from laboratory experiments and modelling studies<br />

and highlights the need to incorporate drought stress effects in land surface models.


Speakers<br />

Day 1: Parallel Session 2 <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts – The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor) continued<br />

Susan Davies University of Edinburgh<br />

Effective risk management against the threat of drought impacts on the Scottish timber industry<br />

This requires the provision of quantified information on the probabilities and consequences of drought in a form that<br />

supports policy and strategic decisions on the choice of tree species that provide the greatest resilience against<br />

this threat. Our innovative approach derives location-specific risk versus return comparisons of 20 commercial timber<br />

species in Scotland by quantifying the impact of drought risk under a high emission climate change scenario, to<br />

potential return modelled as change in volume of timber production. Sitka is the main timber species in Scotland<br />

accounting for over half of <strong>current</strong> commercial plantations. We assess whether the yield potential of Sitka spruce is<br />

likely to be sufficiently high to cover its relatively high susceptibility to drought compared to rival species over the<br />

next rotation, and whether its dominance is likely to continue into subsequent rotations in regions predicted to<br />

experience high water deficits. We identify whether there are viable alternatives to Sitka during the next rotation<br />

with a higher drought tolerance defined as within a threshold of 90% of Sitka’s yield. Since diversification increases<br />

resilience against other risks (such as pest and diseases), our analysis provides strategic regionally coherent<br />

information on suitable alternatives to Sitka that increase resilience. Such a risk management strategy would help<br />

protect commercial softwood timber volume production in an industry worth almost £1billion per year to the<br />

Scottish economy. The modelling approach outlined could easily be used to assess alternative timber species in other<br />

regions where comparable data is available.<br />

Peter Kettlewell Harper Adams University<br />

Mitigating drought impact on crop yield by applying film-forming polymers<br />

Irrigation is used to mitigate or eliminate drought impacts on only about 20% of the world’s crop area. Most of the<br />

crop area is thus dependent on rain and more-prone to short-term drought impacts. Members of the <strong>Drought</strong><br />

Mitigation Group at Harper Adams University are researching a potential mitigation method, applying film-forming<br />

polymers, for drought impacts in rain-fed cropping. This method can, however, be detrimental to plant growth and for<br />

many years has only been used on ornamental plants, where growth and yield is less important than in crop plants.<br />

The novelty in our research is to time the application just before the most drought-sensitive stage of crop plant<br />

development, when detrimental effects on growth are more than offset by reduced water stress. We have shown<br />

benefits in common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), with as much as a 42%<br />

improvement in crop yield in one experiment on droughted wheat. Current research is investigating the mechanism<br />

of this technique, in order to define more-clearly the circumstances which can reliably lead to mitigation of drought<br />

impacts on crop yield in rain-fed agriculture.


Speakers<br />

Day 2: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Kerstin Stahl University of Freiburg<br />

Customising drought indices to improve drought impact monitoring and prediction<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> risk management, including monitoring and early warning, still relies primarily on drought indicators selected<br />

or combined from hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, and in fewer cases on modelled soil moisture,<br />

observed or modelled streamflow, or remotely sensed vegetation health. To guide the selection and give more<br />

meaning for drought management decisions, a number of studies have investigated empirically the linkage between<br />

these indices and records of drought impact occurrence. These studies have been inspired by the damage function<br />

approach employed in risk assessments of other natural hazards. Based on studies in Europe and the USA this<br />

contribution illustrates <strong>challenges</strong> and potentials of validating the suitability of indices with impact information,<br />

customizing thresholds for warnings and finding impact-indicator link functions that may be suitable for a prediction of<br />

the probability of impact occurrence. Impact information was derived from large archives of text-based, coded impact<br />

reports, such as the European <strong>Drought</strong> Impact report Inventory and the US <strong>Drought</strong> Impact Reporter and links and<br />

link functions were analysed at various spatial scales for various subsets of impact types and drought events. The<br />

identified <strong>challenges</strong> include the rapid decrease of data when subsetting for specific impact sectors or smaller spatial<br />

areas, the choice of the link model, and a variety of potential dynamic changes to the underlying conditions between<br />

and even during drought events. Based on the assessment, recommendations for a successful and applicable link model<br />

include in particular a careful pre-processing of index and impact data and more systematic impact data collection in<br />

the <strong>future</strong>.<br />

Mike Morecroft Natural England<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> impacts on the natural environment and lessons for climate change adaptation<br />

The Earth’s climate has changed as a result of greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change, even if emissions<br />

are successfully and quickly reduced. Adaptation to climate change is therefore essential and an increasingly<br />

recognised priority in environmental management and policy. An increased risk of drought, especially during hot, dry<br />

summers is one of the key aspects of climate change that we need to adapt to in the UK. Over the last few decades<br />

there have been a number of periods of drought and we can look at how these affected the natural environment to<br />

get a better understanding of the threats we face. This shows that drought affects a wide range of ecosystems and<br />

species. Amongst species some are adversely affected but others can benefit. The risks are greatest when a dry<br />

summer follows a dry winter as soil water and flow in rivers is already low at the start of the summer. The Impacts<br />

are however modified by soil type, catchment and management. The indirect effects of drought, such as increased<br />

abstraction and, as graphically shown in the summer of 2018, increased wildfire risk, can be just as important at the<br />

drought itself. Looking to the <strong>future</strong>, there are a range of potential adaptation measures including: wetland<br />

restoration, reducing abstraction, better control of water levels in protected sites and diversification of tree species to<br />

decrease risks to woodland. Climate change adaptation can’t be a stand-alone activity, it needs to be thoroughly<br />

integrated into the way organisations operate and I will illustrate this from our work in Natural England.<br />

Ian Holman Cranfield University<br />

Taking lessons from the 2018 drought forward into increased drought resilience in the agricultural<br />

sector<br />

The 2018 drought had widespread and varied consequences for all parts of the agricultural sector in the UK. This<br />

presentation looking back at 2018 will cover four main components. Firstly, the unusual meteorological characteristics<br />

of 2018 that proved so challenging for UK agriculture will be described. Secondly, a quantitative analysis of the wide<br />

range of impacts of the 2018 drought on the livestock, rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems will be described,<br />

based on reporting within specialist sector publications, identifying both negative and positive impacts of the drought.<br />

Thirdly, the range of short-term coping and longer term strategic reported responses to the drought will be<br />

described. Finally, building on the preceding analyses and recent interviews with farmers, the presentation will reflect<br />

on three lessons from the 2018 drought and how they might be taken forward to support increased drought resilience<br />

in the agricultural sector: (1) the need for improved strategic planning at all levels and scales, from farm to catchment<br />

to supply chain; (2) the need to enable best use of licenced water during drought through improved forecasting,<br />

monitoring and evidence-based decision making; and (3) the need to enable the continuing de-synchronisation of<br />

irrigation demand and irrigation abstraction through investment in winter storage.


Speakers<br />

Day 2: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Anne van Loon Birmingham University<br />

Feedbacks between drought and society<br />

An important aspect of sustainable management of <strong>future</strong> droughts is reducing vulnerability and increasing<br />

preparedness and resilience. However, little is known about drought vulnerability and resilience and how these change<br />

over time. The main obstacles are a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. In this presentation, I<br />

show examples of research that aimed to distinguish and visualise (changes in) vulnerability. For communities,<br />

preparation to <strong>future</strong> droughts is challenging as it can be hard to envisage <strong>future</strong> drought and possible impacts.<br />

Barriers exist in the exchange of experience and knowledge between groups within a community or between<br />

community and government actors. We combined narrative techniques and hydrological model scenarios to reveal<br />

people’s vulnerabilities to drought and explore routes to <strong>future</strong> resilience. This approach allowed participants to use<br />

their imagination of <strong>future</strong> drought events and exchange ideas for drought preparation between different<br />

intergenerational groups and professional occupations. The narratives were a useful tool in conversations with<br />

government representatives about including community vulnerability in drought management. For society, it is<br />

important to be aware of unintended consequences of management measures that focus on reducing the hazard.<br />

Building reservoirs for water supply can possibly lead to counterintuitive dynamics that should be considered: supply–<br />

demand cycles and reservoir effects. The former describe instances where increasing water supply enables higher<br />

water demand, which can offset the initial benefits of reservoirs. Reservoir effects include cases where over-reliance<br />

increases vulnerability, and therefore increases the potential damage caused by droughts. These examples show that<br />

increasing our understanding of the drivers and effects of drought vulnerability is crucial: we need to know more about<br />

the feedbacks between drought and society to develop sustainable management of <strong>future</strong> drought events.<br />

Fiona Lobley Environment Agency<br />

2018 dry weather and its impacts; looking ahead to 2019<br />

In 2018 the UK started with drought conditions in Kent then, after a wet spring, came the hot, dry summer<br />

bringing drought to the North West. The incident spread westwards across the country. Over that period the<br />

Environment Agency and others invested significant time and resource into managing and responding to the event.<br />

The EA responded to five times the normal number of environmental incidents, granted drought permits to water<br />

companies and applied for a drought order to protect the environment. The incident is not over. Many parts of<br />

the country have seen improvements in reservoir storage but concerns remain for groundwater levels and filling<br />

farmers’ reservoirs. Overall January and February 2019 have had below average rainfall, especially in central and<br />

eastern of England. This has meant a delay to the recharge of groundwater stores and we are now faced with low<br />

groundwater levels stretching from Berkshire through to Norfolk heading into the spring. Farmers are very<br />

nervous about the risk of drought in 2019 and, for most, below average rainfall will reduce production and<br />

increase costs. Even with typical rainfall, we could see environmental impacts in 2019 due to a lag in response from<br />

the dry weather in 2018. There is also a potential for cumulative environmental impacts if we were to experience<br />

another dry summer this year. Without higher than average rainfall over the coming months we could experience<br />

significant impacts on the environment, navigation and the agricultural sector.


Speakers<br />

Day 2: Parallel Session 1 <strong>Drought</strong> Planning & Management – The Pichette Auditorium<br />

Lindsey McEwen UWE & DRY<br />

Integrating science and narratives: a new interdisciplinary approach to develop drought mitigation<br />

strategies<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> - a diffuse, slowly progressing and pervasive hazard - is a complex ‘high stakes’ risk that is increasing in the<br />

Anthropocene. As a natural phenomenon, drought can happen anywhere at any time, while also socially constructed<br />

through overuse of water supplies. Issues exist in using specialist science as the dominant evidence- base in: framing of<br />

drought risk communication as “knowledge deficit”; managing drought risk; and mitigating actual droughts. This<br />

presentation explores how, and by what processes, scientific and narrative evidence on drought risk and drought<br />

mitigation might be brought together to support better decision-making for UK drought risk management (DRM) and<br />

more widely. It provides a methodological review of critical points of connection between science and narrative<br />

within the interdisciplinary DRY project (<strong>Drought</strong> Risk and You), exploring issues that we have had to address in<br />

developing our methodology to innovatively “bridge the knowledge gap”. This paper appraises the decisions in<br />

bringing narrative and science iteratively into the same space as DRY’s “engaged”, participatory methodology has<br />

played out, set against opportunities and barriers for drought risk communication and the nature of “narratives”. We<br />

explore potential for science-narrative interaction in terms of “past”, “present” and “<strong>future</strong>” drawing across<br />

exemplars from different methodological concerns: conceiving narrative as data and data as narrative; working with<br />

science as stimuli for narratives (and vice versa); interdisciplinary and inter-professional systems thinking; exploring<br />

roles of visualisation in risk and complexity; co-developing “bite- sized drought science”; scenario-ing to bring<br />

narrative and science together in iterative engagements; co- developing local catchment-based drought impact indices;<br />

and co-designing DRY’s “Utility” that draws on science and narrative to support better multi-stakeholder decisionmaking.<br />

This requires cognisance of different ways “evidence” could be used in DRM, building up from individual<br />

household level to non-statutory and statutory organisational decision-makers.<br />

Miranda Foster & Granville Davies Yorkshire <strong>Water</strong><br />

<strong>Water</strong> resources in Yorkshire, UK in 2018: drought management, perception and communication<br />

2018 was an interesting year for water resources management in Yorkshire. Although we are considered to be one of<br />

the most resilient regions in the country when it comes to drought, the severity of the hot and dry weather<br />

experienced from May to August 2018 (in particular), led to a rapid decline in our regional reservoir stocks. At times,<br />

the downward curve of reservoir levels mirrored that from the last significant drought experienced in the region, that<br />

of 1995/96. Despite the significant water resources challenge that the dry weather and at times high demands caused<br />

us, we did not hit formal triggers in our drought plan for either implementing Temporary Use Bans (TUBs) or<br />

requiring drought permits. This was, in part, reflective of the major investment that we made after the 1995/96<br />

drought, leading to the creation of our regional grid system which allows us to move significant quantities of water<br />

around our region. Although we did not hit our formal triggers, by early autumn – and after a very dry October – we<br />

made the decision to submit a number of applications for drought permits. These were intended to help our reservoir<br />

stocks recover over the winter period, by reducing reservoir compensation flows and allowing us to continue to<br />

abstract water from key rivers. This paper will explore lessons learned from the 2018 drought in Yorkshire. In<br />

particular, we will look at issues that we will consider when updating our drought plan to enhance our resilience in<br />

the <strong>future</strong>. We will review the drought from beginning to end, considering how decisions were made at each stage,<br />

what influenced those decisions and how we worked with the Environment Agency during this challenging time. This<br />

will include looking at the information gathering process and use of common data sources – such as CEH’s online<br />

drought portal – to create evidence to support applications for drought permits. Further, the paper will explore<br />

issues around perception and communication in periods of drought. We will consider how our communications<br />

campaign evolved through the year and how we communicated with key external stakeholders and with our own<br />

colleagues.<br />

Amanda Fencl University of California, Davis presenting for Ruth<br />

Langridge University of California, Santa Cruz<br />

Groundwater management in planning for drought: experience from California, USA<br />

Groundwater is a critical water supply source during drought when it compensates for reduced surface water<br />

supplies. At the same time, there is less groundwater recharge. The result in California is that groundwater levels and<br />

storage have decreased over time and many groundwater basins are both degraded and depleted. Declines are<br />

primarily focused during droughts with recovery at other times. Climate change will exacerbate these declines with<br />

projections for higher temperatures and extreme droughts by the end of the 21st century. This will alter the natural<br />

recharge of groundwater including decreased inflow from runoff, increased evaporative losses, and warmer and<br />

shorter winter seasons. These changes will exacerbate already existing groundwater overdraft in many groundwater<br />

basins. Moreover, many areas in the state rely heavily on imported surface water from the Central Valley Project and<br />

State <strong>Water</strong> Project for groundwater recharge and consumptive use, and this water is projected to be less reliable<br />

and more expensive in the <strong>future</strong>.<br />

[Continued overleaf]


Speakers<br />

Day 2: Parallel Session 1 <strong>Drought</strong> Planning & Management – The Pichette Auditorium continued<br />

[Amanda Fencl continued from previous page]<br />

This paper explores how groundwater management agencies in California are planning for drought, and new<br />

approaches <strong>current</strong>ly being used that show promise for <strong>addressing</strong> the more extreme droughts projected under<br />

climate change. First, the paper provides a review of the research on drought and groundwater management in the<br />

state including strategies <strong>current</strong>ly used to address drought. Second, case studies illustrate newer and varied<br />

approaches being used to reduce drought impacts. Highlighted are the different strategies used by groundwater<br />

managers to increase storage that can then be used for drought reserves to reduce vulnerability to the extreme<br />

droughts projected under climate change. Two additional case studies discuss the limits of a drought reserve strategy<br />

and indicate that more is needed to address the range of basin conditions and varied needs of communities reliant on<br />

groundwater. The different approaches presented in this paper to increase groundwater storage specifically for use<br />

during drought are important first steps to proactively manage groundwater to adapt to the higher temperatures and<br />

<strong>future</strong> extreme droughts projected under climate change.<br />

Mark Smith Hydro-Logic Services (International) Ltd<br />

Recent trends in water resources planning and management<br />

<strong>Drought</strong>s have potentially huge consequences for the economy, society and the environment. Yet, in being relatively<br />

low frequency and ‘chronic events’ (rather than being short and sharp episodes like floods), they are typically ‘back of<br />

mind’ for many customers and the public until the consequences come to the fore. The <strong>Water</strong> Resources<br />

Management Plan (WRMP) and <strong>Drought</strong> Plan processes have served both the industry and society well to date.<br />

However, as we increasingly plan for a more uncertain and volatile <strong>future</strong>, the process of decision-making and<br />

engagement on risk has the potential to be increasingly challenging also. This presentation reflects on recent trends in<br />

water resources planning and management, and the rising importance of planning processes in reflecting the<br />

‘consequences’ of relevance and interest to customers and stakeholders. In many cases, these can draw on existing<br />

tools and methods to maximise their value in application. The development of new approaches, including linking to<br />

concepts such as natural capital, has the potential to more effectively explore the balance between cost (to intervene)<br />

and avoidance of consequences. Additionally, it potentially enables better dialogue with customers and the wider<br />

population. This paper will also reflect on the <strong>challenges</strong> and pitfalls of engaging on low frequency events that seem set<br />

to become more frequent, and will address the question as to how communication of risk in <strong>future</strong> might serve to<br />

help the industry collectively tackle <strong>future</strong> <strong>challenges</strong> of drought and water scarcity.<br />

Sevilay Topcu Cukurova University<br />

Implementing <strong>Drought</strong> Management in Turkey: an institutional pathology<br />

Located in a semi-arid zone, Turkey is highly and increasingly prone to extreme drought events. Turkey has signed the<br />

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in 1994, ratified in early 1998. The first road map<br />

and national action plan in accordance with the convention was prepared by the Turkish Ministry of Environment and<br />

Forestry in March 2005. In 2011, a special unit, the Directorate of Combating Desertification was established under<br />

the (then) Ministry of Forestry and <strong>Water</strong> Affairs to prepare and implement long-term policies and national action<br />

programmes. This first national action plan however failed to meet the performance criteria in terms of<br />

implementation, monitoring and assessment of the planned actions by 2013. Hence this plan was updated in<br />

partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation, financed by the Global Environment Fund, to align Turkey’s<br />

National Action Plan with UNCCD’s 10-Year Strategy and reporting process in 2014. On paper, Turkey’s<br />

management plans to combat drought and desertification are impressive. Their implementation however leaves much<br />

to be desired. Despite droughts being slow-onset, and therefore often predictable (disaster) events, droughts are<br />

subject to crisis management rather than disaster risk management, comprising all stages in the Disaster Risk Cycle.<br />

This contribution highlights a key reason for this poor implementation: the dysfunctional dynamic institutional<br />

landscape in Turkey for drought management. <strong>Drought</strong> management is distributed over a wide range of institutions,<br />

governed by a plethora of laws and regulations. There are also gaps in the existing water legislation as a whole, and<br />

<strong>current</strong> laws do not clearly assign authority and responsibility for water-related matters. Sufficient data and an<br />

efficient monitoring system for drought and desertification are lacking. Inter- institutional and inter-sectoral data<br />

sharing, monitoring and traceability has not been fully established. Lack of data and analysis is the primary obstacle for<br />

institutions to develop the appropriate strategies and policies. Additionally, the responsible institutions and even intrainstitutional<br />

directorates are poorly coordinated amongst themselves. The institutions may compete over<br />

responsibilities and resources. Moreover, the relevant water, agriculture, food, forestry and health ministries and<br />

relevant central and local institutions are reorganised every few years, impairing institutional learning and memory in<br />

the drought domain. Accordingly, official evaluations show low levels of motivation and dedication in the involved<br />

public officers due to incessant and unpredictable reshuffles.


Speakers<br />

Day 2: Parallel Session 1 <strong>Drought</strong> Planning & Management – The Pichette Auditorium continued<br />

Caroline King The Borders Institute & GeoData Institute co-authored with<br />

Daniel Tsegai Programme Officer, UNCCD Secretariat<br />

A review of methods for drought impact and vulnerability assessment<br />

<strong>Drought</strong>s emergencies are occurring with increasing frequency and magnitude globally. Their economic and social<br />

impacts are underestimated, particularly in the marginal dry areas of developing countries. Where drought risk<br />

assessment and management are inadequate, drought menaces exacerbate threats to global security and well- being.<br />

In the framework of a UN-<strong>Water</strong> Initiative on ‘’Capacity Development to support National <strong>Drought</strong> Management<br />

Policies’’ (NDMP), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the United Nations Convention to Combat<br />

Desertification (UNCCD) and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)<br />

have initiated a review of approaches and methods for drought impact and vulnerability assessment. This review<br />

explores the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches, tools and methods for assessing drought impact and<br />

vulnerability at the national, local and global levels. Such assessments should be integrated across sectors, scales and<br />

timeframes, and should include particular consideration of the most vulnerable groups. They should reveal adaptation<br />

capabilities, priority actions to enhance them and the economic case for these actions. Findings suggest that many<br />

published assessments fall short in their consideration of the longer-term impacts and vulnerabilities associated with<br />

hydrologic and socio-economic drought. These impacts and vulnerabilities are man-made via urban development and<br />

land and water management patterns. They are therefore largely preventable or manageable. Recommendations focus<br />

on the opportunity for improved international knowledge exchange and capacity building in developing countries to<br />

enhance drought impact and vulnerability assessment. International processes such as the IPCC are playing a critical<br />

role in building capacities for the assessment of loss and damage associated with meteorological and agricultural<br />

droughts. However, the national Parties to the UNCCD and its <strong>Drought</strong> Initiative could do more to focus the<br />

attention of sovereign scientific processes on pre-emptive assessments of the man-made hydrologic and socioeconomic<br />

vulnerabilities to drought. This should enable better informed actions at all levels to stop preventable<br />

drought crises from exacerbating threats to the global economy and security.


Speakers<br />

Day 2: Parallel Session 2 <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts/Communities, Risk Perception & Communication –<br />

Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor)<br />

Kevin Grecksch University of Oxford, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies<br />

Achieving water efficiency through social norms in the public sector<br />

<strong>Water</strong> efficiency is a cornerstone of water resources management and public water supply. Yet typical water<br />

efficiency campaigns in England and Wales are aimed at private domestic customers and private businesses. In<br />

addition, existing water efficiency campaigns focus on two key drivers of water-saving behaviour - technological<br />

devices and financial incentives - but leave unexplored the potential of social norms to create behavioural<br />

commitments to water-saving. In our research we focus on community standards held by a group of water users in<br />

relation to efficient water use, with such norms formed and applied, in settings with a public character, e.g. in the<br />

work place, educational or NHS institutions. The public sector is interesting for a variety of reasons. The UK public<br />

sector employs more than five million people, it is a diverse workforce and it is this workforce that spends a large<br />

amount of their time in offices or workshops using water for toilets, washing, cleaning or in the office kitchen. The<br />

majority of English and Welsh water companies do include, for example, schools in their water efficiency campaigns<br />

but in the context of either providing audits or technological devices to save water or educational campaigns aimed at<br />

children. Our research focuses on the ‘missing link’ of social norms, i.e. informal understandings that guide and govern<br />

our behaviour in society. We start from the idea that social norms may play a significant role in making technological<br />

devices and economic incentives work for water efficient behaviour. Our research is based on an extensive academic<br />

and grey literature review that included topics such as water efficiency, water behaviour, the use of behaviour change<br />

methods, social norms and resources efficiency strategies in the public and private sector, for instance energy saving<br />

initiatives. The grey literature included documents by <strong>Water</strong>Wise, Ofwat, Defra, EA and other regulatory bodies. We<br />

conclude that water-saving behaviour is influenced not just by individual decisions, but social and psychological drivers<br />

such as social norms, values, group behaviour and external factors: culture, family behaviour, infrastructure and<br />

regulations. This is reflected in <strong>current</strong> theoretical approaches, which we reflect upon. How behaviour change is<br />

framed and communicated is another important factor in order to change behaviour and we will discuss tools such as<br />

water-saving competitions to increase water-saving behaviour, for example between schools or departments. Thus,<br />

reference group thinking, for example by people sharing a working space, can be a motivational factor in its own to<br />

save water. The presentation will also discuss our main output, a Primer document aimed at water companies,<br />

regulators and policy makers (Defra, EA, NRW, Ofwat) and water-related NGOs and industry bodies, such as<br />

<strong>Water</strong>Wise, Friends of the Earth, WWF, <strong>Water</strong> UK or UKWIR.<br />

Ruth Larbey UWE<br />

Engaging consumers around water scarcity and water saving<br />

Public water companies in the UK operate within a fine balance – tasked with keeping the taps on, they also have a<br />

keen understanding of the actual extent and sustainability of the UK’s water resources – and with that comes a<br />

responsibility and a drive to communicate these factors to the public. This spoken presentation will feed back the<br />

results of research into water company practices to engage consumers around water scarcity and water saving.<br />

Gathered via interviews with UK water companies’ communications teams, it will profile some of the latest and most<br />

innovative trends and practices, in order to contribute to a multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary conversation about<br />

how to develop the UK’s water resilience.<br />

Sandra Santos Wageningen University<br />

Improving institutional frameworks integrating local initiatives from communities exposed to<br />

drought and water scarcity in Ecuador<br />

In recent years Ecuador has been particularly susceptible to climate variability and extreme events. In the<br />

transboundary Mira River Basin (MRB) in the North of Ecuador drought and water scarcity are serious hazards. As a<br />

case study, a water project in the Imbabura province, which is in the MRB, was studied to explore various aspects of<br />

how to improve existing institutional frameworks integrating local initiatives from communities exposed to these<br />

phenomena. The data collected was based on local experiences and historical data to better understand rainfall<br />

variability at the local scale. It is also proposed to use the basin water management plan for the water management<br />

authority SENAGUA to support decision-making.<br />

The information shows poor involvement from the community-based organizations (irrigation boards), indirectly<br />

triggering conflicts, e.g. when there is not enough water; when the agreements on collaboration between local<br />

politicians and the communities are unsustainable; or when tension arises between water users over water rights and<br />

claims. As a result, some scenarios were generated by improper management resulting in political considerations<br />

rather than social concerns, leading to several projects to meet the demand for water within an area. This basin, with<br />

a relative high risk to drought, shows: a scaling up on all water scarcity issues and in all their problem dimensions; that<br />

the evaluations that have been carried out on the effectiveness of this project could not fulfil their objective; that all<br />

the institutional elements required to bridge water policies with the needs of the population are not well known. This<br />

research is the first basin overview of the relevant sources concerned drought and water scarcity.


Speakers<br />

Day 2: Parallel Session 2 <strong>Drought</strong> Impacts/Communities, Risk Perception & Communication –<br />

Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor) continued<br />

Antonia Liguori Loughborough University<br />

Learning around ‘storying water’ to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK<br />

drought risk management<br />

While the ‘narrative turn’ is well-cited in the social sciences, and storytelling approaches are embedded in arts and<br />

humanities (A&H) practices, this paper reflects on learning around ‘storying water’ gained within the interdisciplinary<br />

DRY (<strong>Drought</strong> Risk and You) project. Over four years, DRY has worked to expose and incorporate ‘the hidden<br />

story’ – in terms of both type of risk (diffuse, pervasive) and ‘less heard’ voices (different publics, sectors,<br />

knowledges), to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK drought risk management. This has<br />

been underpinned by meaningful co-production and participatory research approaches. DRY has worked across seven<br />

UK case-study river catchments, along hydro-meteorological and other gradients, exploring how storytelling might<br />

help reframe (indeed commence, in some cases) different drought discourses. This presentation reflects critically on<br />

<strong>challenges</strong> and opportunities in developing context-driven storytelling approaches, the different research evidence<br />

they garnered (e.g. on drought myths; cultural water behaviours; systemic thinking; science-narrative interactions) and<br />

the knowledges they can unearth for those in research, policy and practice. Whilst DRY faced opportunities and<br />

<strong>challenges</strong> in adapting well-established storytelling methods, our processes built in iterative opportunities to reflect<br />

collectively on, and confront, what can be understood as ‘storytelling’. This involved adopting and re-adapting multiple<br />

narrative approaches, with the awareness and willingness to take risks and receive unexpected responses. Our<br />

processes aimed to advance knowledge on how drought - past, present and <strong>future</strong> - impacts different communities in<br />

nuanced ways, and importantly, their potential agency in adaptation. Alongside, statutory resilience organisations are<br />

now developing ‘communication’ campaigns that require better understandings of ‘storying methods’ in exploring<br />

people’s wider water relations.<br />

Prof Paul Whitehead University of Oxford<br />

Impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers, wetlands and delta systems<br />

There are likely to be significant impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers as well<br />

as wetlands and delta systems. Changing precipitation, temperature and flow regimes will alter catchment dynamics<br />

flushing increased loads of diffuse pollutants into rivers. Such changes will also alter dilution downstream, enhancing<br />

the concentrations of point source pollutants in dry flow periods. Changing temperatures and residence times will<br />

alter chemical kinetics speeding up organic decay processes, which will affect oxygen regimes and thereby ecology.<br />

These impacts could be serious and demand alter management and control strategies to ensure water scarcity is not<br />

additionally limited by water quality issues.<br />

Cedric Laize CEH<br />

The relationship between a drought-orientated streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators<br />

Relationships between a drought-oriented streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators have been<br />

investigated at c80 sites in England and Wales in order to assess: (i) the impact of drought conditions on river<br />

ecosystems; (ii) whether the streamflow index could be used successfully as an early-warning indicator of drought<br />

impact on river ecosystems. Results show some significant, albeit limited, response to drought conditions as well as<br />

antecedent conditions (eg flow indicator 6 months before, 12 months before). Overall, when flow conditions are<br />

drier, biological indicators decrease. Decrease magnitude varies greatly and at some sites, the actual ecological impact<br />

is limited. There are some significant but limited patterns of the biological indicator response slope to flow in terms of<br />

catchment characteristics.<br />

Jaeyoung Lee University of Oxford<br />

<strong>Water</strong> quality modelling in the Severn-Thames river systems and assessment of the impact of a water<br />

transfer in drought<br />

<strong>Water</strong> quantity and quality are often dealt with as separate issues. <strong>Water</strong> resources management plans aim to ensure<br />

a secure water supply over some <strong>future</strong> planning horizon, whilst setting aside sufficient water to allow a healthy<br />

aquatic environment in rivers. However, the health of the aquatic environment is also profoundly influenced by water<br />

quality and in a changed climate. Changes in water quality will vary dynamically and spatially and a process-based<br />

modelling approach is required to understand the complexity of interactions, especially during drought periods. A key<br />

water resource issue for the <strong>future</strong> in the UK is the supply of water to London over the next 50 years. Whilst a new<br />

infrastructure is being considered an alternative plan is to transfer water from the Severn to the River Thames.<br />

Possible issues include the risk of supply and impacts of the transferred water on the Thames and water supply. The<br />

aim of this modelling study has been to assess water quality variables including dissolved organic carbon, nitrogen and<br />

phosphorus in the Thames and Severn and the impacts of water transfers from in drought or low flow years. The<br />

Integrated Catchments Model (INCA) models have been set up for both the Severn and the Thames and the model<br />

calibrated against observed flow and quality data for the purpose of study. A set of hypothetical water transfers have<br />

then been considered. The impacts of the water transfers are fairly minimal under normal flow conditions. However,<br />

during drought years a rise in the Thames is likely to occur. Although the model results do not show an imminent<br />

issue, <strong>future</strong> drought conditions and climate change might stress the system towards a more problematic situation.


Posters<br />

Peter Cook, Emily Black & Anne Verhoef University of Reading<br />

Variations in the West African Monsoon from reanalysis and model results<br />

Rainfall in West Africa is strongly seasonal and since at present many people have no other water for irrigation it is<br />

important to understand the variations in the monsoon. Large interannual and decadal variations in the amount of<br />

rainfall are seen in ERA-Interim reanalysis, and in the results from the Met Office Unified Model (GA3) ensemble of<br />

high resolution atmosphere-only model runs with the JULES land-surface scheme and OSTIA sea-surface temperatures<br />

(UPSCALE). This work is part of BRAVE2, "building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater<br />

supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa (second phase)", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRG Unlocking the<br />

Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro) program.<br />

John Bloomfield & Matthew Ascott British Geological Survey<br />

Understanding the impact of climate change on borehole yields from fractured aquifers<br />

This is essential for <strong>future</strong> water resources planning and management. Although the impact of changes in hydraulic<br />

conductivity with depth (VKD) on groundwater levels is well established, the relative significance of climate change and<br />

VKD on borehole yield estimates is poorly understood. We hypothesize that VKD exerts a significant additional<br />

control on borehole yields under climate change which has not been considered in yield assessments to date. We<br />

developed a radial groundwater flow model of an idealised pumping borehole in the fractured Chalk aquifer of southeast<br />

England, and applied 11 VKD profiles based on a simple conceptual representation of variability in hydraulic<br />

conductivity with depth in the Chalk. For each VKD profile, we applied 20 climate scenarios and six constant pumping<br />

rates for the period 1962 – 2014. We then estimated borehole yields based on the derived lowest pumping water<br />

levels during key drought years (e.g. 1976). We show that VKD is more significant than changes in climate in<br />

controlling lowest pumping groundwater levels. Hydraulic conductivity is as significant a control as climate on borehole<br />

yields, although responses are highly non-linear associated with pumping water level-pumping rate curves intersecting<br />

key yield constraints (e.g. pump intake depth, major inflow horizons). It is recommended that variations in hydraulic<br />

conductivity with depth are taken into consideration in <strong>future</strong> assessments of borehole yields under climate change.<br />

The approach presented is generic and can be applied across different aquifers where vertical heterogeneity is present.<br />

Catherine Grasham University of Oxford<br />

A transdisciplinary approach to understanding drought risks in the Awash River basin,<br />

Ethiopia<br />

The Awash River basin in Ethiopia is of high economic importance in the country, with productive activities<br />

contributing around 30 percent to national GDP. Population growth, urbanisation, irrigation expansion and emerging<br />

industries are putting pressure on the quality and quantity of available water resources. <strong>Drought</strong> and flood events are<br />

endemic and their management is critical for mitigating water risks and achieving sustainable development. This<br />

research paper offers a transdisciplinary approach to a more holistic understanding of drought risks. Previous research<br />

has used global, regional and basin scale hydro-climatic models to inform decision-making around optimum investments<br />

for drought management. However, these analyses have often overlooked the varying benefits to different water users<br />

(domestic, irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, industry, livestock). This research co-produces knowledge across<br />

disciplines using basin scale climate hazard mapping, water resources modelling and risk perspectives from interviews<br />

and discussions with different water users at the woreda (district) level. We find that risk is not homogenous and<br />

consists of social, economic and cultural dimensions. The adaptive capacity of water users is influenced by water<br />

source, access to water technologies and position in the basin. <strong>Water</strong> users utilising groundwater were found to be<br />

more resilient and industries with sophisticated water pumping technologies experienced less impact on production<br />

during a drought year. Attempts to mitigate risks upstream were exacerbating negative impacts on downstream<br />

groups. We have found that a transdisciplinary research design allows drought risk thresholds to be developed for<br />

different water users, which is necessary to support equitable water management outcomes. Our findings are<br />

particularly relevant for decisions makers concerned with ensuring that investments to mitigate drought risks benefit<br />

the poor.


Posters<br />

Emma Cross, Emma Neachell & Tom Entwistle Environment Agency<br />

The 2018 heatwave; responding to and managing the impacts on people and the<br />

environment in Thames Area<br />

June and July 2018 saw exceptional temperatures across Thames Area – in common with most of the UK. These hot<br />

and dry conditions extended into early August, and resulted in the summer being the joint warmest on record for the<br />

UK. The Environment Agency’s (EA) role is to monitor, report and act to reduce the impact of such periods of<br />

prolonged dry weather on people and the environment. We manage and coordinate our response to prolonged dry<br />

weather and its impacts through the Thames Area <strong>Drought</strong> Plan. As the heatwave escalated in June, Thames Area<br />

received an increase in reported environmental incidents relating to dry weather. In response to this, the drought<br />

team, made up of multi-disciplinary specialists was convened. The drought team decided that sufficient indicators in the<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> Plan had been met to progress to a prolonged dry weather incident. Thames Area continued to respond to<br />

environmental incidents related to exceptional temperatures throughout July and into August. There were numerous<br />

reported incidents of blue-green algal blooms in rivers and lakes and associated reports of fish in distress. Some<br />

resulted in emergency fish rescues. To help farmers (and other abstractors), a more flexible approach to water<br />

abstraction was adopted. Whilst the heatwave largely dissipated in August, dry conditions in the preceding months<br />

meant that the River Thames <strong>Water</strong>ways team experienced operational <strong>challenges</strong> balancing the needs of navigation,<br />

public water supply and the environment. Dry weather related impacts were focused around the Upper Thames,<br />

where the Oxford <strong>Water</strong>courses Low Flow Operating Procedure was put in place to protect watercourses around<br />

Oxford. Although Thames Area only received 47% Long Term Average (LTA) rainfall between May and October,<br />

November saw 123% of the LTA rainfall. In spite of this, month-end soil moisture deficits remained above average<br />

resulting in negligible recharge to groundwater. This in combination with hydrological projections, meant that the focus<br />

switched to planning for continued dry weather. The EA is <strong>current</strong>ly using reasonable worst case scenarios from<br />

monthly hydrological projections to assess the water situation for the end of winter and early spring.<br />

Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Rob Hope, Daniel Olago & Simon<br />

Dadson University of Reading<br />

Finding sustainable water <strong>future</strong>s in the Turkwel River basin, Kenya under climate change<br />

and variability<br />

Climate uncertainty, land use, demographic, and political changes increasingly present defining <strong>challenges</strong> to water<br />

resources planning worldwide. The <strong>challenges</strong> are most acute in low-resource contexts with limited data,<br />

unpredictable rainfall, and unmet water needs for the vulnerable and poor. Here a novel decision-scaling approach was<br />

applied to model hydro-climatic risks in the Turkwel River basin, Kenya, where frequent droughts and rapidly growing<br />

water demand cause high level of water scarcity. A climate response surface was constructed by combining a water<br />

resource system model, historical climate data, and a range of water demand scenarios. Results show that climate<br />

variability and increased water demand are each important drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Increases in water<br />

demand due to expanded irrigation exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource<br />

supply requirements. In all cases considered, irrigation expansion has negative implications for domestic supply<br />

requirements in the rapidly growing Lodwar town and environmental flows. The climate response surface offers a<br />

visual and flexible tool for decision-makers to understand the ways in which the water resource system responds to<br />

climate variability and development scenarios. Policy decisions to accelerate water-dependent development and<br />

poverty reduction in arid and semi-arid lands that are characterised by rapid demographic, political and economic<br />

change in the short- to medium term have to promote low-regrets approaches that incorporate longer-term climate<br />

uncertainty.<br />

Ayilobeni Kikon National Institute of Technology Karnataka<br />

Application of Optimized Machine Learning Technique in <strong>Drought</strong> Forecasting Using SPI<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> indices are crucial for <strong>addressing</strong> its disruptive consequences that include creating havoc on the economy,<br />

agriculture, health, and environment, among others, leading to other cascading vulnerabilities. Therefore, drought<br />

forecasting or analysis becomes very essential in assessing the <strong>future</strong> drought events and risk assessment in any region.<br />

In this study, precipitation data from 1964-2013 is used for assessing drought in Jodhpur district of Rajasthan, India. A<br />

hybrid model of Genetic Algorithm-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (GA-ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization<br />

- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (PSO-ANFIS) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) has<br />

been developed to forecast the drought using 6-SPI, 9-SPI and 12-SPI. The performance analysis of the different models<br />

of GA-ANFIS, PSO-ANFIS, and GRNN for 6-SPI, 9-SPI, and 12-SPI were compared. By comparing all the three models<br />

with different input combination, the results show that GRNN gave the best performance result having an R2 value of<br />

0.93 for 6-SPI, 0.95 for 9-SPI, and 0.96 for 12-SPI. In this regard, GRNN mark itself as a tool to perform prediction and<br />

comparisons of performance, making it reliable owing to its ability to converge the underlying function of the data with<br />

the availability of few samples.


Posters<br />

Nikos Mastrantonas, Simon Parry & Jamie Hannaford CEH<br />

Luke Harrington University of Oxford<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> Libraries for enhanced resilience in long term water resource planning in the UK<br />

Long-term planning of water resources has been a key requirement of the providers of water supplies, and this is<br />

extremely important nowadays. In the UK, the water companies are required to produce management plans on a fiveyear<br />

cycle, ensuring consideration has been given for both present and <strong>future</strong> demands and constraints. Moreover,<br />

there is a need to test water supply systems against the ‘worst historical’ drought event and consider those ‘beyond<br />

historical’ that might occur in <strong>future</strong>. However there is no agreed methodology for determining the worst historical<br />

event, and each water company may use different datasets to reach an answer. Given this lack of consistency, there is<br />

interest in rationalising the approach to answer questions relating to drought affecting multiple neighbouring water<br />

companies and around the feasibility of large-scale water transfers.<br />

This need is addressed by the UK <strong>Drought</strong>s & <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> Programme, which supports improved decision-making<br />

and communication in relation to droughts and water scarcity for a range of sectors. Capitalising on new improved<br />

national-scale data for extensive historical and <strong>future</strong> timeframes, consistently derived ‘drought libraries’ are<br />

developed.<br />

These drought libraries are sets of events across a range of severities, durations and spatial domains, facilitating the<br />

exploration of questions around the temporal and spatial coherence of drought. Due to the extended historic period<br />

(to 1862), the libraries provide the opportunity to characterise recent events in their wider historical context.<br />

Moreover, information about possible <strong>future</strong> droughts, with climate model projections up to 2099, can inform<br />

stakeholders on the expected severity of <strong>future</strong> events. This study demonstrates the applicability of the drought<br />

libraries through case study catchments in southern England. The results show the severity of a specific historical<br />

drought event varying notably across different rainfall accumulation periods, showing that reference events should be<br />

carefully selected. Moreover, the <strong>future</strong> projections indicate that the drought hazard will be intensified in this part of<br />

the UK. The application of nationally consistent drought libraries in assessments of resilience to past, present and<br />

<strong>future</strong> droughts will maximise the benefit in managing the UK’s national water resources, and begin to address some of<br />

the critical questions around how to reconcile the often competing demands from society, economy and environment.<br />

Wiza Mphande Harper Adams University<br />

Elucidating <strong>Drought</strong> Mitigation with Antitranspirants in Spring Wheat<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> stress has a negative effect on crop yield performance. If drought occurs during reproductive development,<br />

application of antitranspirants improves grain yield in wheat as was shown by Kettlewell et al. (2010). However, the<br />

mechanism by which this is achieved has not been established. The possible explanation could be the negative effect of<br />

ABA on pollen development, as drought triggers increased biosynthesis of this phytohormone (Lee and Luan 2012). In<br />

2018, a field experiment was conducted in the Flatt Nook Field at Harper Adams University (52°46′N, 2°25′W),<br />

Shropshire, UK. <strong>Drought</strong> stress conditions were simulated using polythene tunnels erected over experimental plots.<br />

Application of Vapor Gard, a film antitranspirant, to spring wheat at three growth stages, GS33, GS45 and GS51,<br />

reduced the endogenous concentration of abscisic acid in flag leaves and improved grain yield. These results suggest<br />

that drought amelioration by antitranspirants is related to reduced biosynthesis or increased catabolism of abscisic<br />

acid. This research has potential to enhance knowledge about drought signalling and designing genetic techniques for<br />

drought tolerance in crop breeding research. Further work is required to determine the effect of Vapor Gard on the<br />

relationship between abscisic acid and pollen and ovary development.<br />

Hattie Roberts, Kirsti Ashworth & Ian Dodd Lancaster University<br />

Felicity Hayes CEH<br />

Brassica napus. L (oilseed rape; canola) is the third most important oilseed crop worldwide, and the most valuable in<br />

Europe, with its products used for food, fodder and fuel. B. napus is considered a thirsty crop, with drought and high<br />

temperatures decreasing seed size and pod number, hence yield . There is increasing concern over its productivity and<br />

continued economic viability as “Mediterranean” conditions spread northwards through Europe. Here we report on<br />

the growth rate, leaf gas exchange and morphology of a spring cultivar of B. napus (cv. Click), grown indoors in semicontrolled<br />

environment growth chambers, and subjected to three different water regimes. Three watering regimes<br />

were implemented 1) well-watered (WW) plants, which were re-watered with 100% of evapotranspiration lost daily;<br />

2) deficit irrigation (DI) wherein plants were watered at 50% evapotranspiration volume daily; 3) drought and rewatering<br />

(DRW) irrigation wherein plants were watered at 50% cumulative evapotranspiration volume every five days.<br />

We also collected samples of plant volatiles emitted from the leaves. These volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are<br />

synthesised and released in response to abiotic stresses such as drought and are thought to protect plant metabolism<br />

and functioning under oxidative stress. We investigated whether these volatiles help maintain productivity during the<br />

application of stress or promote rapid recovery of functioning and growth on removal of the stress, i.e. on rewatering.<br />

Final above-ground masses and leaf area of the both deficit irrigation and plants exposed drought and rewatering<br />

were significantly smaller than well-watered plants, with photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance also<br />

significantly higher in well-watered than deficit irrigation and drought-exposed plants. The emission of certain volatiles<br />

was correlated with water availability.


Posters<br />

Sevilay Topcu Cukurova University<br />

Strategic Comparison of Past and Future <strong>Drought</strong>s in Turkey<br />

Turkey is strongly and increasingly exposed to drought. Historically, serious droughts occurred as in 1804 and 1876<br />

causing the loss of agricultural production and livestock as well as the migration of affected farmers. <strong>Drought</strong>-related<br />

famines and diseases in 1876 claimed an estimated 200,000 lives. More recently, serious drought events occurred in<br />

1928, 1973, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1998-2001, 2007, 2008, 2013 and 2017. The present study analyses i) the spatial and<br />

temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, ii) to predict the potential intensity, frequency and duration of<br />

droughts for the <strong>future</strong> (2070-2100) iii) to compare the past and <strong>future</strong> drought occurrences with a view to developing<br />

appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. We used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to assess drought<br />

characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 51 stations (representative<br />

of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service. The <strong>future</strong> rainfall<br />

series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM4) for IPCC’s SRES-A2 scenario<br />

conditions. To determine the likely changes between reference and <strong>future</strong> periods, the projected <strong>future</strong> rainfall series<br />

was compared with the average rainfall amount derived from the reference period in SPI calculations. Finally, maps<br />

were drawn to determine the changes in spatial patterns of droughts. The study results showed that drought<br />

conditions are diverse in Turkey, and increasing trends for intensity, frequency and duration were detected. At<br />

regional scale, the Eastern part of Marmara, Black Sea Region and northern and eastern parts of the East Anatolia<br />

Regions are characterized by wetter conditions. Particularly severe drought conditions are expected in the Western<br />

Mediterranean and Aegean Regions, although other regions of the country will also likely be confronted with more<br />

frequent, intense and long lasting droughts. Most rain-fed and irrigated areas and surface water resources are located<br />

in the drought-vulnerable regions of the country. Industrial, touristic, urban and other water uses will also be affected<br />

by the worsened conditions in Turkey. Results of this and similar studies have been integrated into the national<br />

drought strategy and action plans to combat desertification and drought in Turkey.<br />

Harry West, Nevil Quinn, Michael Horswell & Paul White UWE<br />

Examining spatial variations in the utility of SPI as a 3-month-ahead environmental drought<br />

indicator<br />

<strong>Drought</strong>s are a common meteorological phenomenon and a significant natural hazard. Despite this we lack a common<br />

understanding of the definition of a drought event and a detailed understanding of drought onset and termination. In<br />

its simplest form however a drought can be defined as a deficit of rainfall relative to normal conditions. This rainfall<br />

deficit will eventually propagate through the hydrological system into terrestrial water storage and streamflow. Using<br />

the latest available hydro-meteorological datasets from the UK <strong>Drought</strong>s & <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> Programme, this paper<br />

aims to examine the relationship between rainfall deficit (quantified by the standardised precipitation index for a range<br />

of accumulation periods ranging from 1 to 12 months) and environmental drought (quantified by the standardised<br />

streamflow index) in 303 catchments across Great Britain. Through this we identify the rainfall deficit accumulation<br />

periods that are associated with the more severe environmental droughts, and in doing so identify the role of local<br />

catchment characteristics (quantified by the base flow index) in moderating drought frequency and severity. By<br />

developing a spatial understanding of the relationship between rainfall deficit accumulation and environmental drought,<br />

we identify and map the variation in critical SPI accumulation thresholds for estimating environmental drought risk<br />

over the forthcoming 1 to 3 months. The intention is that this will provide water resource managers with a simple tool<br />

to aid effective decision making in drought event management.<br />

Jie Xiang, Martin Hare, Ivan Grove & Peter Kettlewell<br />

Harper Adams University<br />

Understanding mitigation of drought damage to rapeseed from spraying film<br />

antitranspirants<br />

Considering predicted impacts of climate change, the expansion of rapeseed in the major producing countries in<br />

temperate regions, where it is well-adapted, has been reinforcing the need for <strong>future</strong> tolerance to abiotic stresses such<br />

as water deficit. A number of studies have shown that drought has been exacerbated by climate change with multiple<br />

effects on agriculture, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) has become the third<br />

most important oilseed crop around the world for edible oil, fodder and biofuel production after soybean (Glycine<br />

max L.) and palm oil (Elaeis guineensis L.). It is more sensitive to water stress compared to other crops such as wheat<br />

and barley, especially at its critical reproductive stages. There is increasing evidence that film antitranspirants can<br />

improve the yield of crops subjected to drought compared to unsprayed treatments. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by<br />

which antitranspirants can mitigate against yield loss are not clear. Therefore, a series of experiments will investigate<br />

the underlying mechanism by which film antitranspirants increase the yield of rapeseed under drought conditions,<br />

especially the stomatal functions. Additionally, the data will be related to the mathematical models of gas exchange<br />

from the stomata to exploit the role of film antitranspirants on the regulation of gaseous exchange in rapeseed.


The Projects<br />

Find out more about the<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> & <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong><br />

projects


DWS<br />

Projects<br />

dryproject.co.uk<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> and water shortage can severely affect<br />

us all through impacts on the environment,<br />

agriculture, infrastructure, society and culture.<br />

We started the interdisciplinary DRY project in<br />

April 2014, with the ultimate aim of developing<br />

an easy-to-use, evidence-based resource, to<br />

support decision making for management of<br />

drought risk in the UK for a range of end-users.<br />

The DRY project spanned seven catchments<br />

within England, Wales and Scotland to reflect<br />

different hydrological, socio-economic,<br />

environmental and cultural gradients in the UK.<br />

Unlike many other investigations which focus<br />

solely on mathematical modelling of drought<br />

risk and a single sector, the DRY project has<br />

taken a unique approach, bringing together<br />

different aspects of drought science and multistakeholder<br />

storytelling to better understand<br />

.<br />

drought risks, the trade-offs among different<br />

management options and the tipping points that<br />

determine their outcomes.<br />

A key part of DRY’s research was to bring<br />

together different types of data to build a<br />

comprehensive picture of how drought risk will<br />

affect a range of different UK regions at<br />

catchment and local scales. To achieve this goal,<br />

DRY incorporated a two-way process for<br />

gathering and sharing local drought knowledge.<br />

Stories about water resources and drought<br />

were stimulated through memories of historical<br />

drought events, discussions around drought<br />

images, citizen science and imagining the<br />

possible outcomes of drought which arise from<br />

the hydrological drought models iteratively<br />

developed in the team. The stories themselves<br />

then provided contexts that fed into our<br />

mathematical hydrological drought models<br />

through which we explored scenarios of what<br />

might happen in potential <strong>future</strong> droughts.<br />

Outputs from our research include the DRY<br />

project Utility, a resource to support decisionmaking<br />

which incorporates the DRY’s<br />

searchable Story Bank; the DRY Story Map; and<br />

DRY Guidance on its approach alongside papers<br />

in wide-ranging journals across disciplines.<br />

The project leader is Professor Lindsey<br />

McEwen, from UWE Bristol.<br />

@Project_DRY


DWS<br />

Projects<br />

historicdroughts.ceh.ac.uk<br />

Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s aims to develop a crossdisciplinary<br />

understanding of past drought<br />

episodes that have affected the UK, with a view<br />

to developing improved tools for managing<br />

droughts in <strong>future</strong>.<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> and water scarcity are significant<br />

threats to livelihoods and wellbeing in many<br />

countries, including the UK. Parts of the country<br />

are already water-stressed and are facing a wide<br />

range of pressures, including an expanding<br />

population and intensifying exploitation of<br />

increasingly limited water resources. In addition,<br />

many regions may become significantly drier in<br />

<strong>future</strong> due to environmental changes, all of<br />

which implies major <strong>challenges</strong> to water<br />

resource management. However, droughts are<br />

not simply natural hazards. There are also a<br />

range of socio-economic and regulatory factors<br />

that may influence the course of droughts, such<br />

as water consumption practices and abstraction<br />

licensing regimes. Consequently, if drought and<br />

water scarcity are to be better managed, there<br />

is a need for a more detailed understanding of<br />

the links between physical (i.e. meteorological,<br />

hydrological) and social and economic systems<br />

during droughts.<br />

With this research gap in mind, the Historic<br />

<strong>Drought</strong>s project has been developing an<br />

interdisciplinary understanding of drought from<br />

a range of perspectives. Based on an analysis of<br />

information from a wide range of sectors<br />

(hydrometeorological, environmental, agricultural,<br />

regulatory, social and cultural), the<br />

project has characterised and quantified the<br />

history of drought and water scarcity since the<br />

late 19th century.<br />

The project has developed the first systematic<br />

account (the UK <strong>Drought</strong> Inventory) of past<br />

droughts in the UK. The Inventory is the basis of<br />

a novel joint hydrometeorological and socioeconomic<br />

analysis that is leading to a ‘systemsbased’<br />

understanding of drought – i.e. an<br />

understanding of the multiple and interconnected<br />

drivers of drought, the impacts of<br />

drought and the feedbacks between them.<br />

We expect this systems-based understanding to<br />

improve decision-making for <strong>future</strong> drought<br />

management and planning, and to facilitate more<br />

informed and effective public discourse related<br />

to drought.<br />

The project leader is Jamie Hannaford at the<br />

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH).<br />

@Hist<strong>Drought</strong>sUK


DWS<br />

Projects<br />

aboutdrought.info<br />

IMPETUS brings together scientists from the<br />

meteorological, land surface, surface water and<br />

groundwater communities and social scientists<br />

from the water demand and forecast usability<br />

communities.<br />

The project involves internationally-leading<br />

scientists and social scientists from three NERC<br />

Research Centres (the National Centre for<br />

Atmospheric Science (NCAS), the British<br />

Geological Survey (BGS) and the Centre for<br />

Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), four leading<br />

universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and<br />

Southampton), the Met Office and the European<br />

Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts<br />

(ECMWF).<br />

IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK<br />

drought on monthly to decadal timescales, by<br />

improving meteorological, hydrological and<br />

water demand forecasts and how they are<br />

combined to produce drought forecasts. This<br />

will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to<br />

ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for<br />

decision making.<br />

The project leader is Professor Len Shaffrey<br />

at University of Reading.<br />

@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>


DWS<br />

Projects<br />

mariusdroughtproject.org<br />

The span of the MaRIUS project is large and<br />

covers physical and social science topics<br />

including: drought governance; drought options<br />

and management; community responses and<br />

environmental competency.<br />

MaRIUS has developed new methodologies,<br />

datasets and models for the analysis of drought<br />

and water scarcity impacts on river flow, water<br />

quality, ecology, farming, the economy, and how<br />

these combine to affect people.<br />

It includes climatic aspects of drought and the<br />

derivation of a synthetic ‘drought event library’;<br />

hydrological responses both on a catchment and<br />

national scale; effects on water quality including<br />

nutrient concentration in rivers and algal<br />

concentrations in reservoirs, and effect of land<br />

use change; the ramifications on water<br />

resources on the Thames catchment and also<br />

nationally. It includes the impact of drought and<br />

water scarcity on terrestrial and aquatic<br />

ecosystems; agriculture and farming; the<br />

economy; and on electricity production.<br />

Some researchers in MaRIUS are using scenario<br />

modelling and case studies across a number of<br />

scales to understand both the drought impacts<br />

at a local level as well as the institutional<br />

decision-making by governments and water<br />

companies.<br />

The modelling work uses climatically rigorous<br />

drought scenarios and their impacts on water<br />

quality, agriculture, biodiversity and economic<br />

losses.<br />

In addition to computer modelling, social<br />

science and stakeholder engagement are a key<br />

part of the project, helping us to understand the<br />

role of the community, institutions, regulators<br />

and markets in drought management.<br />

The project leader is Professor Jim Hall at<br />

the Environmental Change Institute,<br />

University of Oxford.<br />

@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>


DWS<br />

Projects<br />

ENDOWS<br />

aboutdrought.info<br />

Engaging diverse stakeholders and publics with<br />

outputs from the <strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong><br />

Programme. ENDOWS brings together the<br />

successful stakeholder engagement elements of<br />

the four <strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> (DWS)<br />

projects to further develop and promote<br />

understanding of the key messages from the<br />

programme. Building on the activities of DRY,<br />

IMPETUS, MaRIUS and Historic <strong>Drought</strong>,<br />

ENDOWS is funded by the Research Councils<br />

to inform adaptation and management decisions<br />

before, during and after drought events, using<br />

the new data and findings of the DWS<br />

programme.<br />

ENDOWS has brought these activities together<br />

under the banner ‘<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong>’ an accessible<br />

programme of informed engagement with<br />

regulators, industry, business, policy-makers,<br />

communities and sector organisations.<br />

Knowledge Exchange is a key function of <strong>About</strong><br />

<strong>Drought</strong>, facilitating effective networking<br />

between the research community and<br />

stakeholder communities; encouraging the<br />

building of reliable contacts and stimulating new<br />

working relationships and accelerating the<br />

speed at which the outputs of the DWS<br />

programme are being implemented to support<br />

evidence-based decisions in drought planning<br />

and management.<br />

Thus far, the project has enabled interaction on<br />

and transfer of scientific knowledge and outputs<br />

in the form of resources, information, and/or<br />

tools to water companies, the Environmental<br />

Agency, allotment groups, farmers associations,<br />

and so on. Some of these outputs are being<br />

presented at the <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> <strong>Conference</strong><br />

2019.<br />

The <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> website is being developed<br />

as an authoritative source of expertise, and as a<br />

publicly available platform for informed<br />

comment and opinion. The <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />

Twitter account @<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong> highlights<br />

drought-related news and opinions from the UK<br />

and around the world.<br />

@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>


Datasets<br />

The NERC UK <strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> Programme has released a large number of datasets,<br />

together with interfaces for accessing and visualising data over the web and guidance for use of the<br />

data. For more information on these datasets, please email Matt Fry (mfry@ceh.ac.uk).<br />

Find this information online by clicking here<br />

Historic hydro-<br />

Meteorological<br />

data<br />

• Enhanced historic rain gauge data, and updated 1km rainfall grids back to<br />

the 1860s [Met Office].<br />

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp/download-data<br />

• Historic catchment average daily rainfall series for selected<br />

catchments, 1861-2015 [Met Office / CEH]<br />

• Historic gridded Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), monthly and<br />

daily 5km grids, 1891-2015, based on temperatures [CEH]<br />

https://doi.org/10.5285/17b9c4f7-1c30-4b6f-b2fe-f7780159939c<br />

• Historic Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), 5km grid +<br />

catchments, 1862-2015 [CEH]<br />

https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/233090b2-1d14-4eb9-9f9c-<br />

3923ea2350ff<br />

• Historic reconstructions of daily river flow for 303 UK catchments<br />

(1891-2015) [CEH] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f710bed1-e564-<br />

47bf-b82c-4c2a2fe2810e<br />

• Reconstructed/modelled historic monthly gridded river flow and soil<br />

moisture for the UK from the Grid-to-Grid model, 1km grid, 1891-2015<br />

[CEH] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f52f012d-9f2e-42cc-b628-<br />

9cdea4fa3ba0<br />

• Reconstructed historic groundwater level series for 54 boreholes,<br />

1891-2015 [BGS] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/ccfded8f-c8dc-4a24-8338-<br />

5af94dbfcc16<br />

• Historic Standardised Groundwater level Index (SGI) for 54 UK<br />

boreholes reconstructed groundwater level time series (1891-2015) [BGS]<br />

https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/d92c91ec-2f96-4ab2-8549-<br />

37d520dbd5fc<br />

Near real-time<br />

droughtrelated<br />

metrics<br />

The following drought-related metrics have been focussed on within the<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> programme, and could become accessible in<br />

near-real time should this be a requirement from users:<br />

• Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), 5km grid + catchments,<br />

monthly [CEH] – already available via the CEH <strong>Drought</strong> Portal<br />

• Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), selected gauging stations,<br />

monthly [CEH]<br />

• Standardised Groundwater Level Index (SGI), selected boreholes,<br />

monthly [BGS]<br />

• Hydro-ecological drought metrics, under development within the<br />

projects [CEH]


Datasets<br />

Climate change<br />

projection data<br />

Probabilistic time series based on the Weather at Home (W@H) event set<br />

(100 ensemble members for each time slice) for a baseline period (1974-<br />

2004) and two <strong>future</strong> periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) under the<br />

RCP8.5 high emission scenario.<br />

• Full gridded climate outputs including PET, daily / monthly on ~25km<br />

grid (University of Oxford)<br />

http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/0cea8d7aca57427fae92241348ae9b03<br />

• (Dependent on user requirements) Catchment average rainfall,<br />

temperature and PET for gauged catchments<br />

• Daily river flow series at gauged catchments: Grid-to-Grid [CEH],<br />

Dynamic TopModel [University of Bristol]<br />

https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/5f3c1a02-d5c4-4faa-9353-<br />

e8b68ce2ace2<br />

• Gridded monthly flows and soil moisture from Grid-to-Grid, 1km<br />

grid [CEH] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/3b90962e-6fc8-4251-<br />

853e-b9683e37f790<br />

• (Dependent on user requirements) Summary grids and maps of this<br />

data, e.g. change factors for <strong>future</strong> time periods for key statistics<br />

(annual/monthly/seasonal flows, etc.)<br />

• Daily grids of hydrological variables (runoff, soil moisture, etc.) under<br />

UKCP09 climate projections for seven representative catchments across<br />

the UK for three <strong>future</strong> periods (the 2020s, 2050s, 2080s), with 100<br />

realisations, modelled with Di-CHASM [CEH]<br />

New Social and Socio-economic datasets<br />

The multi-disciplinary UK <strong>Drought</strong> and <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Scarcity</strong> research programme is also producing a wide range<br />

of data outputs from research activities in many disciplines. Some of these outputs are listed below, and<br />

others will be added as they are produced and identified from the component projects.<br />

Cross-sectoral<br />

inventory of<br />

past droughts<br />

References to past droughts from a variety of sectors, integrated into a<br />

consistent format to capture spatial and temporal reporting of drought:<br />

• References to droughts in the agricultural media. 2000+ entries referring to<br />

drought within UK agricultural media between 1975 and 2012, including<br />

information on farm classification.<br />

• References to droughts in legislation. 500+ entries referring to drought<br />

within UK legislation between 1976 and 2012, from Hansard debates and<br />

other government publications.<br />

• References to droughts in newspapers. Thousands of spatially located<br />

entries referring to drought within local and national newspapers from<br />

1800 to 2014.<br />

• References to droughts in oral histories. 1000 entries referring to drought<br />

from dozens of drought-focussed oral histories from across the UK, from<br />

water industry experts and members of the public.<br />

Database of reservoir construction: a dataset of reservoir construction, with<br />

capacity information, from 1800 to 2000.


Download <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />

Briefing Notes & Leaflets<br />

Briefing notes:<br />

How to plan and manage water resources for<br />

public water supply: <strong>future</strong> directions<br />

Leaflets:<br />

Which farming areas of England and Wales are<br />

most at risk from economic losses due to<br />

drought?<br />

Economic impacts of regulatory drought<br />

management on irrigated agriculture<br />

<strong>Drought</strong> Monitoring & Forecasting<br />

Securing a fair share of water: a strategy for<br />

agriculture and horticulture<br />

D-Risk: helping irrigators manage drought risk<br />

Using your phone to scan a QR code<br />

Crop response to a changing climate<br />

If you already have a QR app on your phone, simply<br />

hold the screen over the code(s) to be taken to the<br />

document(s). You can download a scanner from<br />

your app store.<br />

You can also access the document(s) using the<br />

hyperlinks.


Delegates<br />

First Name Last Name Organisation<br />

Muhammad Afzal CEH<br />

Daniela Anghileri University of Southampton<br />

Danielle Ashby University of Falmouth<br />

Lucy Barker CEH<br />

Pat Barrett Environmental Protection Agency<br />

Peter Baur Shared <strong>Water</strong><br />

Pam Berry University of Oxford<br />

John Bloomfield British Geological Survey<br />

Bentje Brauns British Geological Survey<br />

James Brindley Environment Agency<br />

Elizabeth Brock Met Office<br />

Frans Carel Persendt Aberystwyth University<br />

Tim Collins Natural England<br />

Keith Colquhoun Thames <strong>Water</strong><br />

Peter Cook NCAS Climate<br />

Stanley Cook SJC <strong>Water</strong> Consulting Ltd<br />

Séverine Cornillon British Geological Survey<br />

Alexander Cox University of Falmouth<br />

Vicky Crichton Environment Agency<br />

Emma<br />

Cross<br />

Jo Cullen Welsh <strong>Water</strong><br />

Vittoria Danino Anglian <strong>Water</strong><br />

Granville Davies Yorkshire <strong>Water</strong><br />

Susan Davies University of Edinburgh<br />

Richard Davies Environment Agency<br />

Suraje Dessai UK Research & Innovation<br />

Mieke de Wit NERC<br />

Barnaby Dobson University of Oxford<br />

Tracey Dunford Natural Resources Wales


Delegates (cont)<br />

First Name Last Name Organisation<br />

Mason Durant HR Wallingford<br />

Vicky Durbridge NERC<br />

Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma University of Bristol<br />

Tom Entwistle Environment Agency<br />

David Fanner University of Falmouth<br />

Amanda Fencl UC Davis<br />

Miranda Foster Yorkshire <strong>Water</strong><br />

Matt Fry CEH<br />

David Garcia-Leon Ca' Foscari University of Venice<br />

Ugo Gasparino RWE npower<br />

Daniela<br />

Gatto-Ronchieri<br />

Helen Gavin Oxford University<br />

Vasileios Giannakopoulos Lancaster University<br />

Richard Gosling SEPA<br />

Alastair Graham Geoger<br />

Catherine Grasham Oxford University<br />

Kevin Grecksch University of Oxford<br />

Ivan Grove Harper Adams University<br />

Eliakim Hamunyela Aberystwyth University<br />

Jamie Hannaford CEH<br />

Richard Hill Environment Agency<br />

Feyera Hirpa University of Oxford<br />

Ian Holman Cranfield University<br />

Anneka Johnson-Marshall Affinity <strong>Water</strong><br />

Sunil Kansakar Environment Agency<br />

Ilias Karapanos Affinity <strong>Water</strong> Ltd<br />

Alison Kay CEH


Delegates (cont)<br />

First Name Last Name Organisation<br />

Ruth Kelman NERC<br />

Peter Kettlewell Harper Adams University<br />

Ayilobeni<br />

Kikon<br />

National Institute Of Technology<br />

Karnataka<br />

Tom King Lancaster University<br />

Caroline<br />

King-Okumu<br />

Cedric Laize CEH<br />

NERC Centre for Ecology and<br />

Hydrology<br />

Bettina Lange University of Oxford<br />

Ruth Larbey UWE<br />

Stefan Le Roy SLR GeoHydro Solutions Ltd<br />

Jaeyoung Lee University of Oxford<br />

Antonia Liguori Loughborough University Arts<br />

Fiona Lobley Environment Agency<br />

Dave MacLeod University of Oxford<br />

Willem Maetens Flanders Environment Agency<br />

Ramona Magno IBIMET-CNR<br />

Mark Manning SDS<br />

Helene Margue The Royal Society<br />

Nikolaos Mastrantonas CEH<br />

Christine McCulloch University of Oxford<br />

Lindsey McEwen UWE<br />

Stephen McGuire SEPA<br />

Rachel Merrix Environment Agency<br />

Stephen<br />

Middleton<br />

Ben Miller ESRC<br />

Ian Milne SEPA<br />

Mike Morecroft CEH<br />

Wiza Mphande Harper Adams University


Delegates (cont)<br />

First Name Last Name Organisation<br />

Gillian<br />

Murphy<br />

Jennifer Murphy Environment Agency<br />

Christopher Nankervis Weather Logistics Ltd<br />

Emma Neachell Environment Agency<br />

Tom Nurick Environment Agency<br />

Fred Otu-Larbi Lancaster University<br />

Affie Panayiotou Affinity <strong>Water</strong><br />

Massimiliano Pasqui Institute of Biometeorology<br />

Rebecca Pearce University of Exeter<br />

Kathryn Pharr University of Oxford<br />

Ben Piper Independent<br />

Lizzie Quarmby Environment Agency<br />

Nevil Quinn UWE & Natural England<br />

Ragab Ragab CEH<br />

Duncan W Reed DWRconsult<br />

Gwyn Rees CEH<br />

Hattie Roberts Lancaster University<br />

Leandro<br />

Rocchi<br />

National Research Council -<br />

Institute of Biometeorology<br />

Ali Rudd NERC - CEH Wallingford<br />

Cathleen Ryan Canal & River Trust<br />

Gloria Salmoral Cranfield University<br />

Sandra Santos Valencia Wageningen University<br />

Sunita Sarkar CEH<br />

Len Shaffrey Reading University<br />

Nicky Shale UWE<br />

Jie Shi Environment Agency<br />

Max Simmonds University of Falmouth


Delegates (cont)<br />

First Name Last Name Organisation<br />

Louise<br />

Slater<br />

Katharine Smart Anglian <strong>Water</strong> Services Ltd<br />

Mark Smith Hydro-Logic Services<br />

Roxanna Snooke South West <strong>Water</strong><br />

Kerstin Stahl University of Freiburg<br />

Sally Stevens IEA<br />

Rachel<br />

Stubbington<br />

Samuel Sutanto Wageningen University<br />

Tim Sykes Environment Agency<br />

Maliko Tanguy CEH<br />

Jill Thompson CEH<br />

Sevilay Topcu Cukurova University<br />

Jacqueline Turner South West <strong>Water</strong><br />

Steve Turner CEH<br />

Henny van Lanen Wageningen University<br />

Anne van Loon Birmingham University<br />

Lucy Vilarkin Bristol City Council<br />

John Waddingham Environment Agency<br />

Michael Wann SEPA<br />

Jacob Watson University of Falmouth<br />

Doris Wendt University of Birmingham<br />

Harry West UWE<br />

Nik Whalley South West <strong>Water</strong><br />

Kevin Wheeler University of Oxford<br />

Pamela White Environment Agency<br />

Paul Whitehead Oxford University<br />

Rob Wilby Loughborogh University<br />

Victoria Williams Environment Agency<br />

Tim Woollings University of Oxford<br />

Jie Xiang Harper Adams University<br />

Hong Yang University of Reading<br />

Linnet Zohrabian University of Oxford


Thank you for attending the<br />

<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> <strong>Conference</strong><br />

Please stay in touch

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