DelegatePack_DroughtConference_20-21March2019

Speakers
Day 2: Parallel Session 2 Drought Impacts/Communities, Risk Perception & Communication –
Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor) continued
Antonia Liguori Loughborough University
Learning around ‘storying water’ to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK
drought risk management
While the ‘narrative turn’ is well-cited in the social sciences, and storytelling approaches are embedded in arts and
humanities (A&H) practices, this paper reflects on learning around ‘storying water’ gained within the interdisciplinary
DRY (Drought Risk and You) project. Over four years, DRY has worked to expose and incorporate ‘the hidden
story’ – in terms of both type of risk (diffuse, pervasive) and ‘less heard’ voices (different publics, sectors,
knowledges), to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK drought risk management. This has
been underpinned by meaningful co-production and participatory research approaches. DRY has worked across seven
UK case-study river catchments, along hydro-meteorological and other gradients, exploring how storytelling might
help reframe (indeed commence, in some cases) different drought discourses. This presentation reflects critically on
challenges and opportunities in developing context-driven storytelling approaches, the different research evidence
they garnered (e.g. on drought myths; cultural water behaviours; systemic thinking; science-narrative interactions) and
the knowledges they can unearth for those in research, policy and practice. Whilst DRY faced opportunities and
challenges in adapting well-established storytelling methods, our processes built in iterative opportunities to reflect
collectively on, and confront, what can be understood as ‘storytelling’. This involved adopting and re-adapting multiple
narrative approaches, with the awareness and willingness to take risks and receive unexpected responses. Our
processes aimed to advance knowledge on how drought - past, present and future - impacts different communities in
nuanced ways, and importantly, their potential agency in adaptation. Alongside, statutory resilience organisations are
now developing ‘communication’ campaigns that require better understandings of ‘storying methods’ in exploring
people’s wider water relations.
Prof Paul Whitehead University of Oxford
Impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers, wetlands and delta systems
There are likely to be significant impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers as well
as wetlands and delta systems. Changing precipitation, temperature and flow regimes will alter catchment dynamics
flushing increased loads of diffuse pollutants into rivers. Such changes will also alter dilution downstream, enhancing
the concentrations of point source pollutants in dry flow periods. Changing temperatures and residence times will
alter chemical kinetics speeding up organic decay processes, which will affect oxygen regimes and thereby ecology.
These impacts could be serious and demand alter management and control strategies to ensure water scarcity is not
additionally limited by water quality issues.
Cedric Laize CEH
The relationship between a drought-orientated streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators
Relationships between a drought-oriented streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators have been
investigated at c80 sites in England and Wales in order to assess: (i) the impact of drought conditions on river
ecosystems; (ii) whether the streamflow index could be used successfully as an early-warning indicator of drought
impact on river ecosystems. Results show some significant, albeit limited, response to drought conditions as well as
antecedent conditions (eg flow indicator 6 months before, 12 months before). Overall, when flow conditions are
drier, biological indicators decrease. Decrease magnitude varies greatly and at some sites, the actual ecological impact
is limited. There are some significant but limited patterns of the biological indicator response slope to flow in terms of
catchment characteristics.
Jaeyoung Lee University of Oxford
Water quality modelling in the Severn-Thames river systems and assessment of the impact of a water
transfer in drought
Water quantity and quality are often dealt with as separate issues. Water resources management plans aim to ensure
a secure water supply over some future planning horizon, whilst setting aside sufficient water to allow a healthy
aquatic environment in rivers. However, the health of the aquatic environment is also profoundly influenced by water
quality and in a changed climate. Changes in water quality will vary dynamically and spatially and a process-based
modelling approach is required to understand the complexity of interactions, especially during drought periods. A key
water resource issue for the future in the UK is the supply of water to London over the next 50 years. Whilst a new
infrastructure is being considered an alternative plan is to transfer water from the Severn to the River Thames.
Possible issues include the risk of supply and impacts of the transferred water on the Thames and water supply. The
aim of this modelling study has been to assess water quality variables including dissolved organic carbon, nitrogen and
phosphorus in the Thames and Severn and the impacts of water transfers from in drought or low flow years. The
Integrated Catchments Model (INCA) models have been set up for both the Severn and the Thames and the model
calibrated against observed flow and quality data for the purpose of study. A set of hypothetical water transfers have
then been considered. The impacts of the water transfers are fairly minimal under normal flow conditions. However,
during drought years a rise in the Thames is likely to occur. Although the model results do not show an imminent
issue, future drought conditions and climate change might stress the system towards a more problematic situation.