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FINANCIAL VANGUARD<br />

Vanguard, MONDAY, MARCH 18, 2019 — 31<br />

Nigerian crude oil for April has been slow to sell, with offer levels<br />

providing little value compared with rival grades from the Mediterranean, North<br />

Sea and Latin America — Femi Asu, in PUNCH, March 7, 2019, p 33.<br />

THAT was in the first<br />

paragraph of a report<br />

titled “Nigeria’s crude oil sales<br />

slow as competition grows”.<br />

Asu went on to quote one of the<br />

largest stakeholders in global<br />

crude sales, S&P Global Platts<br />

saying “Buyers have pulled<br />

back quite a bit and we may be<br />

in for a bit of a waiting game<br />

on the Nigerian front.”<br />

For those who might not know<br />

what is going on and its<br />

connection with the advocacy<br />

for the extension of Mr.<br />

Emefiele’s tenure as CBN<br />

G<strong>over</strong>nor, let me quickly<br />

summarise now and explain<br />

later.<br />

The bottom line is this: The<br />

2019 Budget is now absolutely<br />

worthless – even before the<br />

National Assembly, NASS,<br />

returns to start consideration<br />

of it and before President<br />

Buhari signs whatever is sent<br />

to Aso Rock into law. The<br />

budget has been torn into<br />

shreds by activities in the<br />

global crude oil market which<br />

are totally outside Federal<br />

G<strong>over</strong>nment’s control. Here<br />

are the reasons why.<br />

First, the budget was based<br />

on export of 2.3 million barrels<br />

of crude per day for every<br />

month of the year at<br />

estimated $60 per barrel.<br />

Now, it is certain that Nigeria<br />

could not have shipped out<br />

2.3mbpd even if we want<br />

because of an agreement<br />

within by the Organisation of<br />

Petroleum Exporting<br />

Countries, OPEC, to cut<br />

production. Each member<br />

nation was given its quota<br />

which must not be exceeded.<br />

Nigeria’s quota is 1.7mbpd or<br />

26 per cent less than budget.<br />

That has knocked off billions<br />

of dollars from the expected<br />

revenue from crude in 2019<br />

unless price of crude oil rises<br />

by the same percentage.<br />

Despite the occasional increase<br />

FINANCIAL VANGUARD<br />

Why we need Emefiele now more<br />

than ever<br />

of crude price to almost $70, the<br />

revenue shortfall will still be<br />

significant.<br />

Second, exports in January<br />

and February were less than<br />

1.7mbpd each month; March<br />

is also unlikely to go beyond<br />

that figure. So, with the first<br />

quarter, Q1, almost ending,<br />

the unfavourable variance<br />

recorded on the crude account<br />

already points to serious<br />

trouble ahead, Certainly,<br />

there will be considerable<br />

pressure on the exchange rate<br />

very soon.<br />

Third the factors which are<br />

now depressing the Nigerian<br />

crude sales will not end in<br />

April. An old American<br />

classmate with huge<br />

investments in oil and a good<br />

research staff when contacted<br />

last week confirmed the story<br />

about Nigerian crude running<br />

out of favour with buyers.<br />

According to him, Nigeria will<br />

be lucky to export 1.5 mbpd<br />

from now until December. One<br />

can only hope that he is<br />

wrong; because at that rate,<br />

the economy in 2019 is flirting<br />

with another recession.<br />

Fourth, even if a recession<br />

is averted, another foreign<br />

exchange crisis might just be<br />

right around the corner and<br />

we might be fighting to keep<br />

the exchange rate from hitting<br />

N500/USS1 as we<br />

experienced two years ago. It<br />

is well-known among<br />

economists that the quickest<br />

way to destroy a country is to<br />

first of all destroy its currency.<br />

A worthless currency will<br />

sooner create more havoc than<br />

Boko Haram, herdsmen and<br />

the cattle raiders in the North<br />

because it will devastate<br />

everyone. We came close to one<br />

collapse at that time and only<br />

the measured interventions by<br />

the Central Bank, headed by<br />

Godwin Emefiele brought us<br />

back from the brink.<br />

Apart from external factors,<br />

the elections just concluded,<br />

unlike the relatively peaceful<br />

2015 exercise will most likely<br />

create political and social<br />

tension for at least the rest of<br />

the year. The disputed<br />

presidential election, in<br />

Changes which<br />

can cause<br />

turbulence in<br />

the modern<br />

global economy<br />

take place at the<br />

speed of people<br />

sending<br />

computer<br />

messages<br />

particular, will surely keep<br />

foreign investors away until it<br />

is resolved. Those badly<br />

needed dollars will not be<br />

arriving in Nigeria soon; now<br />

that we need them more than<br />

ever. More pressure will be<br />

mounted on the exchange<br />

rate.<br />

Fifth, the external global<br />

economic situation is<br />

disturbing and their<br />

consequences for the<br />

Nigerian economy are<br />

uncertain. To the best of my<br />

knowledge, nobody in this<br />

g<strong>over</strong>nment is really giving a<br />

great deal of thought to the<br />

repercussions of slowing global<br />

economy for Nigeria. Our<br />

largest trading partners all<br />

seem to be slowing down all at<br />

once. But, two events outside<br />

our shores point to the need for<br />

Nigeria to have some measure<br />

of stability in its monetary<br />

policy management.<br />

One is BREXIT. Great<br />

Britain, unless a last minute<br />

miracle occurs is about to<br />

leave the European Common<br />

Market in a move that will destabilise<br />

the European<br />

economy in ways that are not<br />

clear to the Europeans<br />

themselves. One thing is<br />

certain; it will not be without<br />

problems. And when Europe,<br />

the world’s largest trading<br />

bloc, sneezes, the rest of the<br />

world must reach for nasal<br />

balms. Almost invariably such<br />

continent-wide crises result in<br />

currency crisis. With so much<br />

uncertain, experience has<br />

demonstrated that the<br />

countries which survive the<br />

global turbulence best are<br />

those which stabilise their<br />

monetary policy management.<br />

Changing the guards when<br />

trouble looms creates two sets<br />

of uncertainties – the external<br />

uncertainty and the<br />

management uncertainty.<br />

The United States provides<br />

a good example. Mr Alan<br />

Greenspan was the Chairman<br />

of the Federal Reserve Bank<br />

for nineteen years; he served<br />

three different Presidents.<br />

The economy experienced its<br />

first major crisis during his<br />

first term in office. He rose to<br />

the challenge and was able to<br />

bring some measure of sanity<br />

to the system. He was allowed<br />

a second term to enable him<br />

consolidate on the reforms he<br />

had introduced. He was still<br />

engaged in solidifying the<br />

reforms when the global<br />

Banking Crisis erupted. But,<br />

he was also nearing the end<br />

of the second term. Instead of<br />

taking a risk with a new hand<br />

Greenspan was allowed to<br />

continue. There is one good<br />

reason.<br />

Changes which can cause<br />

turbulence in the modern<br />

global economy take place at<br />

the speed of people sending<br />

computer messages.<br />

Information and data move<br />

just as fast. And because no<br />

country is isolated central<br />

bankers must constantly keep<br />

in touch with each other. Being<br />

well-networked has, therefore,<br />

become a vital attribute of the<br />

g<strong>over</strong>nor of any national bank.<br />

It is indispensable in a crisis.<br />

Emefiele, at the moment, is the<br />

person with access to the global<br />

network of central bankers.<br />

With the other uncertainties<br />

facing Nigeria, the least we can<br />

do is to remove one – don’t<br />

bring a new manager to lead<br />

the monetary policy team.<br />

At a time like this, the “devil”<br />

that you already know is far<br />

better than the ‘saint” you<br />

might be considering. There<br />

can be only one excuse for<br />

making a change under the<br />

circumstances. The incumbent<br />

must have been an absolute<br />

disaster. In my opinion,<br />

Godwin Emefiele is actually the<br />

best performing officer in a high<br />

post in the last four years. He<br />

is not perfect. Nobody is. But,<br />

as a leader, he combines<br />

intelligence, integrity, courage<br />

and diligence in measures not<br />

observed in the office of<br />

G<strong>over</strong>nor of Central Bank in<br />

a long time.<br />

BUSINESS<br />

Sidelining of MfBs will undermine Nigeria’s<br />

financial inclusion strategy — Bowen MfB<br />

By Providence Emmanuel<br />

WHAT are your views<br />

about the subsector<br />

especially now that the first<br />

quarter is almost concluded?<br />

I expect the sub sector to be<br />

stronger in implementing the<br />

financial inclusion strategy for<br />

Nigeria and this would be done<br />

through the agent banking<br />

model. I expect that the<br />

association would be able to put<br />

in place and implement our own<br />

agent banking strategy that<br />

would enhance the sub sector<br />

into achieving its financial<br />

inclusion strategy. I expect<br />

more engagement with<br />

g<strong>over</strong>nment agencies that have<br />

In this interview, Managing Director, Bowen<br />

Microfinance Bank, MfB, Limited, Mrs. Adebimpe Ogunleye,<br />

lamented the alleged sidelining of MfBs in the implementation<br />

of the National Financial Inclusion Strategy. Excerpt:<br />

economic empowerment<br />

programmes for our target<br />

market, the economically active<br />

poor.<br />

What is the subsector doing<br />

with regards to the CBN’s<br />

circular on recapitalisation,<br />

among others?<br />

Since the circular came out,<br />

we have been having<br />

engagement meetings trying to<br />

look at options available to us.<br />

Above that, we have made<br />

representations to the central<br />

bank directly, on the issue of<br />

recapitalisation because if MfB<br />

is suppose to do financial<br />

inclusion, we understand all the<br />

challenges and issues which<br />

actually has led to the increase<br />

in the capital base with different<br />

classes of MfBs. But we are<br />

saying there is a point to which<br />

you increase to that you entirely<br />

bury the idea of microfinance. For<br />

us in the industry, we have made<br />

representations at the CBN, we<br />

are doing advocacy through<br />

stakeholders who are close to the<br />

sector to also speak about this<br />

matter. We are expecting a<br />

downward review of the new<br />

policy and the second thing is<br />

that, we are discussing in various<br />

ways with CBN.<br />

Our position is that, if we are<br />

supposed to be a channel for<br />

financial inclusion, which is the<br />

way it is all <strong>over</strong> the world,<br />

whatever CBN wants to do with<br />

the NIRSAL MfB that it is<br />

putting in place, our position is<br />

that you cannot be a policy<br />

maker and policy driver. Instead<br />

of setting up another national<br />

MfB, why would the CBN not<br />

look at the NIPOST offices and<br />

say NAMB, how can you<br />

collaborate with NIPOST offices<br />

to enter into the rural area and<br />

empower the people? The<br />

commercial banks are supposed<br />

to look at the MfB sector and<br />

empower them to affect the<br />

economy because we are located<br />

in the rural area where these<br />

people are. They do not have the<br />

capacity to go down low at a go.<br />

Imagine any of the deposit banks<br />

having 20 to 30 unit MfBs under<br />

them, facilitating them with all<br />

necessary requirement to go<br />

and function in these rural areas.<br />

Do you imagine the development<br />

that go on in the community<br />

areas. Also, they don’t need to<br />

spend money to go there; they<br />

are only driving the right<br />

channel to achieve the goal<br />

there. That is the way it is<br />

supposed to operate.<br />

Microfinance banking is our<br />

area of specialisation, it is not<br />

their own, we are supposed to<br />

be their area of target; they are<br />

supposed to empower us to<br />

achieve the financial inclusion<br />

goal of the federal g<strong>over</strong>nment.

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