atw - International Journal for Nuclear Power | 04.2019

atw Vol. 64 (2019) | Issue 4 ı April
FEATURE | MAJOR TRENDS IN ENERGY POLICY AND NUCLEAR POWER 194
| | Fig. 7.
Worldwide distribution of coal reserves in billion (10 9 ) tce.
| | Fig. 8.
Worldwide distribution of oil and natural gas reserves* in billion (10 9 ) tce.
| | Fig. 9.
Worldwide distribution of uranium reserves and resources in billion (10 9 ) tce.
(Figure 10). Reserves are to be understood as “proven
quantities of energy resources that are economically
recoverable at today’s prices and with today’s technology”.
The resources existing beyond these, defined as “proven
quantities of energy resources but which are currently
technically and/or econo mically unre cover able, as well as
not proven quantities of energy resources which are geologically
possible and recoverable in the future”, are more
than ten times as large as the reserves according to information
provided by the Federal Institute for Geosciences
and Natural Resources. [5]
Restrictions on the use of fossil energy resources exist
due to emissions of greenhouse gases associated with their
use. To meet the goals of climate protection and the
requirements of the Paris Agreement, the countries party
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change committed themselves to specific limitations on
the emission of greenhouse gases. The European Union,
for example, has made a legally binding commitment to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % by 2030
compared to 1990 levels. [6]
There are basically four strategies available for the
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions required for climate
protection:
pp
Expansion of the renewable energies
pp
Improvement of energy efficiency
pp
Extended use of nuclear power
pp
Capture and utilization or storage of CO 2
The governments which, through their respective policies,
determine the priorities in the orientation of the necessary
investments for the transformation of the global energy
supply, are decisive for progress in implementing these
possible paths.
In its World Energy Outlook published in November
2018, the International Energy Agency (IEA) identified
cumulative investment requirements of 2 trillion dollars
per year in the global energy supply. [7] According to IEA’s
data, more than 70 % of these investments are made by
state-run companies or are triggered by state regulation,
for example in the form of a guaranteed return. Only just
less than 30 % of global investment is private and marketdriven,
according to the IEA’s assessment in the main
scenario of the World Energy Outlook, i.e. the New Policies
Scenario. In the power supply, even more than 90 % of
the investment deemed necessary worldwide by 2040 is
government and regulation-driven (Figure 11).
In the New Policies Scenario, the IEA makes the
following statements about the level and structure of
global energy consumption and power generation by
2040: The future growth expected in primary energy
consumption, and especially in power generation, will be
met to a much greater extent than in the past by renewable
energies. Thus, the share of renewables in global
primary energy consumption will rise to 20 % in 2040. The
contribution of renewable energies to power generation is
set to grow from 25 % in 2017 to 42 % in 2040 (Figure 12).
Renewables are therefore replacing coal as the most
important source of energy for the power supply. The
largest increases are expected for solar energy and wind
power. This development is favored by the economies of
scale achieved in recent years, above all in solar plants, but
also in wind power.
Significant progress will also be made in improving
­energy efficiency, supported by public policies. This is
reflected in increasing decoupling of the development of
energy consumption from economic growth. In Germany,
this has already been observed in recent decades. Thus,
the specific energy consumption, i.e. the primary energy
consumption per unit gross domestic product, in Germany
has declined by 42 % in the period from 1990 to 2018. [8]
Similar developments are also likely to take place in other
countries in the future.
The expansion of nuclear power is restricted to
countries where the governments support this technology
with appropriate political backing. This applies particularly
to China, India, Russia and some countries of the
Middle East and Europe. In the World Energy Outlook
2018, the IEA points out that at 270 GW nuclear power will
account for only 3.5 % of the new power generation
capacity amounting to a total of 7,730 GW that is expected
Feature
The Role of Resources and Reserves for the Global Energy Supply ı Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer