Alu_VZ_2020_Editorial

REDAKTIONELLER TEIL
EDITORIAL SECTION
veloping into a geopolitical powder keg. Iran’s threat to
close the Strait of Hormuz through which a substantial
proportion of the crude oil exports from the Gulf region
is shipped may lead to an explosion. After attacks on
several tankers, the seizure of ships and the shootingdown
of drones, the uncertainty has increased enormously.
Of course, this is causing high volatility in the
crude oil prices (see Fig. 1).
Brent Blend oil price / in US-D per barrel
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 1
After the global crude oil demand rose by 1.4 mbd (= million
barrels per day) in 2018, a need rising to 100 mbd is
being seen for 2019. Since the increase in the crude oil
production outside OPEC is turning out to be stronger
than the rise in global consumption, this is reducing the
need for the OPEC production by 0.9 mbd. The current
production quantity corresponds to this need. An escalation
in the Gulf region as a consequence of the military
manoeuvres would lead to temporary bottlenecks in
supply. For the time being, IKB is nevertheless assuming
a crude oil price between US-D 60 and US-D 70 per
barrel of Brent - with a high potential for a rise in the
event of any military conflagrations.
However, impacts are resulting from the trade wars in
particular. On the part of the US government, the threat
of punitive tariffs and further sanctions is increasingly
being used as a means of domestic political profiling.
Even treaties concluded in the recent past (see Mexico)
are no longer reliable. Moreover, the conflict with China
is increasingly having impacts on the most important
partner countries. Thus, some market observers are asking
themselves whether treaties and agreements with
the USA make any sense whatsoever if a tweet makes
them obsolete once again at short notice.
Important buyer markets are placing their faith
in lightweight construction
The expectations in relation to the production of light
vehicles (piece weight: up to 2.8 t) are assuming an annual
output between nearly 100 million and up to 110
million units in the next decade. In this respect, quantities
of 105 million and more should be achieved from
2025. Only a sales volume 2 - 3 % below the level in the
previous year is emerging for 2019.
In relation to the total production, there are just small
differences between the average annual production
and the resulting stock of the motor vehicle fleet at the
end of the forecast period. The majority of the growth
is taking place outside Europe and the USA. China
should exceed the sound barrier of 30 million produced
light vehicles in 2022 at the latest.
While various consulting companies, industrial associations
and forecasting firms have made largely
identical basic estimations of the development of the
production and the sales, there are greater divergences
with regard to the estimation of the advance of an alternative
drive technology to the combustion engine. In
relation to the drive, IKB is initially seeing a sharp rise
in the significance of hybrid drive forms while pure battery
solutions will only reach any notable quantities after
2025. However, in addition to the battery-operated
drive, research activities are increasingly being directed
at synthetic fuels as well as at drive forms such as
the fuel cell. The stock of e-vehicles in the basic forecast
is estimated at up to 15 % of the worldwide stock
in 2030. In an optimistic forecast, 25 - 30 % is possible
(see Fig. 2).
Aluminium Lieferverzeichnis 2020 | 11