atw - International Journal for Nuclear Power | 11/12.2019

atw Vol. 64 (2019) | Issue 11/12 ı November/December
Outlook is there is no single or simple
solution to transforming global energy
systems,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s
Executive Director. “Many technologies
and fuels have a part to play
across all sectors of the economy. For
this to happen, we need strong leadership
from policy makers, as governments
hold the clearest responsibility
to act and have the greatest scope to
shape the future.”
In the Stated Policies Scenario,
energy demand increases by 1% per
year to 2040. Low-carbon sources, led
by solar PV, supply more than half of
this growth, and natural gas accounts
for another third. Oil demand flattens
out in the 2030s, and coal use edges
lower. Some parts of the energy sector,
led by electricity, undergo rapid
transformations. Some countries,
notably those with “net zero”
aspirations, go far in reshaping all
aspects of their supply and consumption.
However, the momentum behind
clean energy is insufficient to offset
the effects of an expanding global
economy and growing population.
The rise in emissions slows but does
not peak before 2040.
Shale output from the United
States is set to stay higher for longer
than previously projected, reshaping
global markets, trade flows and
security. In the Stated Policies
Scenario, annual US production
growth slows from the breakneck
pace seen in recent years, but the
United States still accounts for 85 % of
the increase in global oil production to
2030, and for 30 % of the increase in
gas. By 2025, total US shale output
(oil and gas) overtakes total oil and
gas production from Russia.
“The shale revolution highlights
that rapid change in the energy
system is possible when an initial push
to develop new technologies is
complemented by strong market
incentives and large-scale investment,”
said Dr Birol. “The effects
have been striking, with US shale now
acting as a strong counterweight to
efforts to manage oil markets.”
The higher US output pushes down
the share of OPEC members and
Russia in total oil production, which
drops to 47 % in 2030, from 55 % in
the mid-2000s. But whichever pathway
the energy system follows, the
world is set to rely heavily on oil supply
from the Middle East for years to
come.
Alongside the immense task of
putting emissions on a sustainable
trajectory, energy security remains
paramount for governments around
the globe. Traditional risks have not
gone away, and new hazards such as
cybersecurity and extreme weather
require constant vigilance. Meanwhile,
the continued transformation
of the electricity sector requires policy
makers to move fast to keep pace with
technological change and the rising
need for the flexible operation of
power systems.
“The world urgently needs to put a
laser-like focus on bringing down
global emissions. This calls for a grand
coalition encompassing governments,
investors, companies and everyone
else who is committed to tackling
climate change,” said Dr Birol. “Our
Sustainable Development Scenario
is tailor-made to help guide the
members of such a coalition in their
efforts to address the massive climate
challenge that faces us all.”
A sharp pick-up in energy efficiency
improvements is the element that
does the most to bring the world
towards the Sustainable Development
Scenario. Right now, efficiency
improvements are slowing: the 1.2 %
rate in 2018 is around half the average
seen since 2010 and remains far below
the 3 % rate that would be needed.
Electricity is one of the few energy
sources that sees rising consumption
over the next two decades in the
Sustainable Development Scenario.
Electricity’s share of final consumption
overtakes that of oil, today’s
leader, by 2040. Wind and solar PV
provide almost all the increase in
electricity generation.
Putting electricity systems on a
sustainable path will require more
than just adding more renewables.
The world also needs to focus on
the emissions that are “locked in”
to existing systems. Over the past
20 years, Asia has accounted for
90 % of all coal-fired capacity built
worldwide, and these plants potentially
have long operational lifetimes
ahead of them. This year’s WEO considers
three options to bring down
emissions from the existing global
coal fleet: to retrofit plants with carbon
capture, utilisation and storage or
biomass co-firing equipment; to
repurpose them to focus on providing
system adequacy and flexibility; or to
retire them earlier.
| www.iea.org
New report and webinar
on the supply of medical
radioisotopes
(nea) The NEA hosted a webinar on
18 November 2019 to present findings
from a new report on the supply of
medical radioisotopes, jointly produced
with the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) Health Committee.
Technetium-99m (Tc-99m) is the
most commonly used medical
radioisotope, essential for 85 % of the
nuclear medicine diagnostic scans
performed worldwide. There are no
comparable substitutes available for
diagnoses of various cancers and for a
range of diagnostics in children.
Unfortunately, the global supply of
Tc-99m is not technically and economically
robust, and the existing
supply-chain continues to experience
chronic shortages. This new study
analyses the current market structure
and identifies barriers for the implementation
of full cost recovery.
Report and the webinar recording
are available at:
oe.cd/nea-med-rad-webinar-2019.
| www.oecd-nea.org
World Nuclear Performance
Report 2019 Asia Edition
launched
(wna) The World Nuclear Performance
Report 2019 Asia Edition shows
that nuclear energy in Asia is meeting
the growing demand for electricity,
whilst helping to tackle
air pollution and climate change. The
report, published by World Nuclear Association,
was launched today at Singapore
International Energy
Week.Nuclear generation in Asia
continued its rapid growth in 2018, increasing
by 12 %. By replacing
coal-fired generation nuclear energy
avoided the emission of over
500 million tonnes of carbon dioxide
last year.Agneta Rising, Director
General of World Nuclear Association
said, “Nuclear is fast, scalable and a
long-lasting way to add clean
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