What next where next

TVE2020

WHAT

NEXT

WHERE

NEXT


1

WHAT

NEXT

WHERE

NEXT



THE FUTURE IS… UNCERTAIN

TODAY TOMORROW & BEYOND

EARS TO THE GROUND

CONTENTS

EYES ON THE FUTURE

SEPARATING SIGNALS FROM NOISE

USING DATA TO DRIVE MODELLING

ALLOWING FOR FORTNITE SCENARIOS

A BASIS FOR PLANNING

CONTACT US



THE FUTURE IS… UNCERTAIN

We’re living in an age of disruption.

THE FUTURE IS ...

UNCERTAIN

Never has the future been so unclear.

Trendspotters, futurologists and crystal-ball gazers may tell

you they can predict your fortune but the truth is no-one

can predict it with complete certainty.

We don’t and won’t make that claim. We’re not that foolish.

We’re not that arrogant.

We do, however, believe that we can help you explore the

most likely scenarios for your category, so you can start to

plan accordingly.

We can help you create a category agenda that can guide

your decision making and increase your likelihood of future

success.



TODAY, TOMORROW & BEYOND

To help create the most realistic future category agendas, we believe you need to:

Understand the here and now.

Explore what is on both the near and far horizon.

Separate trends from fads, identify the key levers and triggers for change.

Create a data based assumptive model allowing you to generate robust, realistic,

optimistic and even radical growth options.

This allows you to produce the hard numbers that you can then consider and start to

plan against.

You then get the benefits of combining both intuition and intelligence.

TODAY TOMORROW

& BEYOND



EARS TO THE GROUND

We start at the very beginning, a very good place to start –

what’s happening here and now.

Our 360 degree Category Immersion incorporates different

start-points and different perspectives to provide a full

picture of the current category situation and how it has

developed over the past few years.

1. THE MARKET

- Understanding the market dynamics, assessing competitor

threats including views on likely new entrants.

2. CONSUMERS

- Understand customer/consumer behaviour and attitudes,

key segments and partitions and the changing importance of each.

EARS TO THE

GROUND



EARS TO THE GROUND

3. CUSTOMERS – Understanding the needs, attitudes and

drivers of the customers/intermediaries you are selling to

and through (where appropriate).

4. INTERNAL – tapping into the knowledge and experience

of key current employees.

5. EXTERNAL – tapping into the knowledge and insights of

category experts and watchers; whether they are journalists,

scientists or cultural anthropologists.

EARS TO THE

GROUND



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EYES ON THE FUTURE

For some people tomorrow never comes, but for others

it is only a day away. For us, if we are to help you set

your future category agenda, it is a vital variable we must

consider today. We need to look at horizons near and far,

to think about what is around the corner. We try to consider

the expected and the unexpected too.

EYES ON THE FUTURE

TRENDS

Identify the key macro & micro trends affecting the market

and their implications. Those we can see emerging and

those that aren’t here yet, but are on their way. We’ll talk

to futurologists, scientists, your R&D department and even

what Apple called the ‘crazies’ - the 1% marginals who

aren’t just on the leading edge, they are leading and

shaping it.

SHOCKWAVES

We generate and consider potential ‘shockwaves’ that

could turn the market on its head. Hypothetical, but

plausible, future scenarios which act as provocations for

future outcomes. A change in Government policy, like a

potential sugar tax; or a media-led revolution, like the

Attenborough effect on plastics.



SEPARATING THE SIGNALS FROM THE NOISE

The next stage along the way is to synthesise, synthesise,

synthesise.

SEPARATING THE SIGNALS

FROM THE NOISE

By now, we will have collected lots of data, opinions

and insights, so we need to identify which are the most

important assumptions, then we can use them as the base

on which we can build a model. We understand the danger

of drowning in data, so we help to provide clarity and

prioritisation.

What are the key factors that will drive and shape the

category, what will be the key challenges and opportunities?

And what do we know about how they have developed in

the last few years? We need to separate fads from trends

- what will have on-going impact for the next 5 years and

what will be almost forgotten by then?

Working with our clients, we will also use the learning

and insights from the 360 Category Immersion and the

predictions for tomorrow, to consider how your category

may be transformed and reframed. You may no longer be

in ready-meals, but the broader meal-solutions market; if

you’re not in mobile phones (and how often do you use

your phone for calling anyone?) are you in indispensable

life-management.



USING DATA TO DRIVE MODELLING

All of what will have been done by now is interesting, but

what makes it really useful and more powerful is to quantify

the predictions. As all good marketers know, your CFO

and your board will want to know what that means for the

business in actual financial terms.

So, unlike the soothsayers, we add some science and rigour

into the process. We use assumptive-based modelling to

help quantify alternative scenarios for the evolution of the

category, so you put numbers on the predictions.

The models we build extrapolate the category for the next

5 years, based on what we believe are the most important

sources e.g. market report data, ethnographic and

research findings, trade-off analysis data, historical market

data, bass diffusion coefficients and other market expert

judgment. This base extrapolation can then be altered to

reflect the impact on the category of discrete alternative

scenarios.

We build the model in spreadsheets to make it more

accessible and actionable. This enables our clients to use it

for themselves, once our project with them is complete. They

have the flexibility to run any further variations they want. The

model itself includes separate sheets for data input for ease

of updating, as well as having step-by-step instructions for

the team so it is easy-to-use and easy-to-adapt.

USING DATA TO DRIVE

MODELLING



ALLOWING FOR FORTNITE SCENARIOS

“It’s OK - we’ll be fine”

That was Jim Balsillie’s, Co-CEO at Research-In-Motion

(Blackberry) response to the release of the first iPhone.

He and the rest of board comforted themselves with an

assessment that the iPhone’s keyboard was difficult to use,

the battery life was terrible and, hey, they were leading the

pack, weren’t they?

Like the man who turned down The Beatles, how wrong

they were.

There are now so many disruptions to so many markets,

shocks have almost become the norm and that’s why we

account for them in the models we build.

Best practice tells us that straight line predictions are normally

the best fit and statistically this is true. Best practice is to

create realistic, optimistic and pessimistic options but in an

age that’s seen the demise of Kodak and Blockbuster and

the rise of Uber and Airbnb we like to build in the potential

to allow for the introduction of a ‘Fortnite’ scenario into our

models.

ALLOWING

FOR FORTNITE

SCENARIOS



ALLOWING FOR FORTNITE SCENARIOS

The Fortnite scenario is based on a plausible, if not

widely predicted, assumption that could transform the

market, leading to exponential growth or decline. In

other words, not all the scenarios have to be straight-line

compound growth they can allow for the unexpected,

which delivers a change at the speed and scale of, say,

the iPhone or, more recently, the videogame Fortnite.

Hence the name.

ALLOWING FOR

FORTNITE SCENARIOS

This means you can explore how your response and plans

might change in just such a circumstance.

fortnite

optimistic

realistic

pessimistic



A BASIS FOR PLANNING

They say the only certainties in life are death and taxes, so

while the future is coming, no-one can predict it with 100%

certainty.

However, if you fail to plan, you may be planning to fail.

A BASIS FOR PLANNING

Creating and quantifying the most likely scenarios for your

business, provides you with the best planning tools you can

have, so you explore your options and work out how to set

the agenda for your and your category’s future growth.

Our belief is that you need to combine both the softer side

of qualitative predictions with more rigorous quantitative

sizing to maximise your chances of success.

It is a process that we have used across categories and

continents with the likes of Shell, Mars and Samworth

Brothers, all of who wanted to avoid the dangers of fuzzy

futurology but enjoyed the benefits of an holistic and

quantified perspective on the future of their category.



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A BASIS FOR PLANNING

A BASIS FOR PLANNING

Ultimately in world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and

ambiguity, it has helped them make more informed, clearer

strategic decisions.

They know what next, where next… and their journey

continues into tomorrow and beyond.

It’s time for you to start planning for tomorrow today.



DO YOU WANT TO FIND OUT MORE ABOUT

WHAT NEXT AND WHERE NEXT?...

CONTACT US

LONDON

LONDON

The Value Engineers

12 Flitcroft Street

London

WC2H 8DL

United Kingdom

NEW YORK

264 W 40th Street

Floor 16

New York

NY 10018

USA

LOS ANGELES

830 Traction Ave

Suite #3A

Los Angeles,

CA 90013

USA

t: +44 (0)20 3954 3032

e: info@thevalueengineers.com

t: +1 646 837 8151

e: info@thevalueengineers.com

t: +1 917 912 1517

e: info@thevalueengineers.com

www.thevalueengineers.com Twitter: @valueengineers



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LOS ANGELES

NEW YORK



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