Water Unites

Connected with this process is the
danger of so-called Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods (GLOFs), which happen when water
dammed by a glacier is released. Due to glacial
retreat, the number of glacial lakes and
incidences of failure has been increasing
globally over the last 40 years. This danger
is also acute in Central Asia. Scientists warn
that in Kyrgyzstan alone, more than 20 glacial
lakes are in danger of outburst.
Glacial retreat has a strong impact on
water availability in the rivers in Central Asia.
Meltwater from snow, glaciers and permafrost
supplies around 80% of the total river
runoff in Central Asia. Glaciers are therefore
a crucial source of water for irrigation agriculture
as well as for hydropower production.
In the short term, discharge in some
Average annual flow, km 3
90
80
Reduction of river flow
projected by 2071–2100
70
compared to today
(A1B scenario)
60
glacier-fed rivers is expected to continue to increase slightly during the summer months
due to the intensified glacier and permafrost melting. In the long term, however, discharge
will decrease and some glaciers will disappear. Experts estimate that the flow of the Amu
Darya might be reduced by 7% to 15% by 2050, and the Syr Darya by 5%, as a result of the loss
of glaciers and permafrost, higher temperatures, increased evaporation and reduced surface
runoff. In smaller rivers fed by small glaciers, this reduction will be much more substantial,
even leading to total drying-up within a few decades. In the decades leading up to 2100, this
reduction is expected to be even higher as the figure above shows. But even a small reduction
can have disastrous effects in those downstream areas that are already facing shortages
today. Therefore, Central Asian water managers have to expect serious water deficits in the
coming decades.
This is exacerbated by the fact that the demand for water will increase due to population
growth, higher temperatures and a decrease in precipitation in some parts of Central Asia.
This also has implications for transboundary cooperation. The principal difficultyunstable
river regimes that would require constant planning and re-negotiation of water
releases-grows with climate change as flow variation increases. Hence, climate change
makes transboundary cooperation even more difficult. Flexible institutions for adaptive
management are paramount and institutional strengthening is critical. 1
50
40
30
20
10
0
Climate change impact
on flow of large rivers
A M U D A RYA
S Y R D A RYA
1 EDB 2009, ZOI 2009
Introduction
9