Water Unites

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Climate change affects water
Central Asia is characterised by an arid and continental climate. This means that summers
are very hot (up to 50°C in the deserts), winters are very cold (down to -60°C in the high
mountain areas of the Pamirs in Eastern Tajikistan) and precipitation is very low. Over the
last few decades, global warming has led to an increase in the surface temperature in Central
Asia. The map below shows that increase per decade.
Change in precipitation,
1951–2001
Change in surface temperature,
1951–2001
Rainfall change
mm per decade
2
1
0
-1
-2
Temp. change
°C per decade
0,1
0,2
0,4
The map shows that the increase in temperature differs by region. It also differs depending
on the season. In general, climate war ming in the winter months is stronger than in other
seasons. However, peak temperatures in summer have also been rising. Since the 1950s, the
number of days with temperatures above 40°C has been increasing in the southern areas of
Central Asia. Climate change scenarios for Central Asia forecast a 1° to 3°C increase in temperature
by 2030–50. By the end of the century, temperatures could increase by up to 6°C if
emissions are unmitigated and greenhouse gas continues to accumulate.
Climate change will have a huge impact on water security. Future increases in both
rainfall variability and extreme weather events will make water availability less predictable
while raising temperatures increase water demand. Climate change has also altered precipitation
patterns. As the map shows, it
Vol.
km 3
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
50 years
ago
Glacier volume change in
TA J I K I S TA N
Today
? ?
Next 50
years
K Y R G Y Z S TA N
50 years
ago
Today
Next 50
years
caused more precipitation in northern
parts of Central Asia and less in
the south, where most agricultural
areas are. But the most disturbing
effect of global warming in Central
Asia is the melting of glaciers. Since
about 1950, between 14% and 30%
of the Tian Shan and Pamir glaciers
have melted. Today’s rate of glacier
loss in Central Asia is 0.2–1% per
year. Some of the small glaciers
(smaller than 0.5 km²) have already
totally melted.
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Introduction