PCH-US Programmatic Report Sponsorship Part 1 FINAL
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US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL
DISPLAY AD SPENDING, PART 1
The vast majority (83.5%) of US digital display ad dollars are transacted using
programmatic technology today. This eMarketer Report, part 1 of 2, features our
forecast for US programmatic digital display ad spending* through 2021, and
provides context on programmatic direct and real-time bidding.
*This forecast was completed in October 2019 and does not include impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.
Our forecasts are for the full year, and there is still a strong possibility that the virus could be contained in the
coming months, allowing for a rebound in H2 2020. In most countries we forecast, the bulk of ad spending
takes place during the latter part of the year for the holiday season. We will continue to monitor the situation
and revise our numbers semiannually as we get a better understanding of the long-term impact of COVID-19
on the global economy.
presented by
Dear eMarketer Reader,
eMarketer is pleased to make this report, US Programmatic Digital Display
Ad Spending (Part 1), available to our readers.
This report is a great example of eMarketer data and insights that explores our
updated forecast for US programmatic digital display ad spending through 2021,
and provides context on programmatic direct and real-time bidding.
We invite you to learn more about eMarketer’s approach to research and why
we are considered the industry standard by the world’s leading brands, media
companies and agencies.
We thank you for your interest in our report and Publishers Clearing House for
making it possible to offer it to you today.
Best Regards,
Nancy Taffera-Santos
Nancy Taffera-Santos
SVP, Media Solutions & Strategy, eMarketer
eMarketer, Inc.
11 Times Square, Floor 14
New York, NY 10036
www.emarketer.com
nancyts@emarketer.com
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING: CONNECTED TV AD
DOLLARS WILL SURPASS DESKTOP BY 2021
The vast majority (83.5%) of US digital display ad dollars are transacted using programmatic technology today.
The triopoly now accounts for a significant share of
programmatic display ad dollars in the US. So do the
social networks.
More than half of the $57.30 billion US advertisers
spend on programmatic digital display ads this year
goes to social networks—companies that lean heavily
on automation and data-driven technology to grant
advertisers audience scale and precision. Facebook’s ad
revenues contribute significantly to the social network
share, as well as the triopoly’s share. Combined, the US
programmatic digital display ad revenues of the triopoly
(Google, Facebook and Amazon) also account for half of
the programmatic display ad market.
While the vast majority of mobile display ad dollars
transact programmatically, some programmatic
practices are still developing.
This year, $46.86 billion, or 88.7% of all US mobile display
ad dollars, will transact via automated means. While
programmatic is well-established in areas like social and
mobile web, practices including in-app bidding, private
marketplaces (PMPs) and other programmatic tactics
are only now ramping up in certain parts of the in-app
space. Moving forward, in-app ad opportunities will prove
increasingly important as limitations to third-party tracking
plague desktop and mobile web advertisers.
Video continues to account for a significant share of
the market, with practically half of all programmatic
ad dollars in the US coming from video by 2021.
Video is one of the fastest-growing digital display ad
formats, and our new connected TV breakout confirms
that more than one in 10 programmatic video ad dollars
already goes to connected TV. Over the next 24 months,
connected TV will grab video ad spending share from
desktop, as it makes its march to $6.26 billion by 2021.
At that time, programmatic ads delivered to connected
TVs will account for 15.9% of total programmatic video,
compared with just 9.0% for desktop and laptop.
WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report presents our
updated forecast for US programmatic digital display ad
spending through 2021. It provides context for how the
programmatic market is growing across transaction types,
formats and devices.
KEY STAT: By 2021, US digital display advertisers will
invest nearly $80 billion in programmatic advertising.
CONTENTS
2 US Programmatic Digital Display Ad Spending: Connected
TV Ad Dollars Will Surpass Desktop by 2021
4 Programmatic Digital Display Ad Spending Outlook
6 Programmatic Direct
11 Real-Time Bidding
14 Key Takeaways
14 eMarketer Interviews
16 Read Next
16 Editorial and Production Contributors
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY 2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
What’s Inside:
This report explores how much US ad buyers will invest
in programmatic advertising through 2021, highlighting
critical trends and influences. It includes eMarketer
estimates for the following areas:
■
■
■
■
■
Total US Programmatic Digital Display Ad Spending
US Programmatic Direct Digital Display Ad Spending
US Digital Display Ad Spending Transacted via Real-Time
Bidding (RTB)
US Digital Display Ad Spending Transacted via
Open Exchanges
US Digital Display Ad Spending Transacted via
Private Marketplaces
Behind the Numbers
eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on
an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from
research firms, government agencies, media firms and
public companies, plus interviews with top executives
at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted
based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer
forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts,
with the same assumptions and general framework used
to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular
re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect
the latest business developments, technology trends and
economic changes.
Defining Programmatic Advertising
eMarketer defines programmatic advertising as an
automated, technology-driven method of buying, selling or
fulfilling digital display ad placements.
Real-Time Bidding (RTB): Auction-based approach used to
buy or sell impression-level inventory. Auctions can either
be public or private.
Programmatic Direct: Non-auction-based approach to
buying or selling ad inventory, not at the impression
level. Programmatic direct deals can be orchestrated via
preexisting RTB technology, through publisher-owned APIs
such as on social sites or via self-service user interface
or deal discovery tools. Programmatic direct deals
specify a fixed price and may or may not guarantee fixed
inventory amounts.
Open Exchange: Public RTB auction open to all buyers and
sellers; also called an open auction or open marketplace.
Private Marketplace: Auction owned by a single publisher
or a small group of publishers and open only to a select
number of invited buyers; also called a private exchange,
private auction or PMP. These are typically executed via
normal RTB technology and may include a deal ID, a tag
that notifies the auction that a specific buyer has some sort
of preferential treatment, whether in price or priority.
Programmatic Guaranteed: Upfront commitment to
both CPM price and inventory amount secured via
programmatic pipes between one buyer and one seller;
also called programmatic reserved, forward market or
just “upfronts.”
Preferred Deal: Upfront commitment to inventory price but
not inventory amount between one buyer and one seller;
also called private access or first right of refusal.
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY
©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY
AD SPENDING OUTLOOK
Over the next 24 months, an incremental $22 billion
will enter the programmatic digital display
advertising market as advertisers continue to rely
on automation to power their banner, video, social,
native and even connected TV ad buys. By 2021,
86.5% of all US digital display ad dollars, or nearly
$80 billion, will transact programmatically.
Our ability to break out Amazon ad revenues by format
in our October 2019 US ad spending forecast meant
a reclassification of a significant number of digital ad
dollars away from display and into search. This newly
lowered topline amount for US digital display ad spending
was then the foundation of the latest programmatic
forecast, which in turn lowered the total dollar amount for
programmatic digital display ad spending.
For our complete US Amazon advertising forecast, read
our November 2019 report, “Amazon Advertising 2019:
Growth and Performance Are Strong at the No. 3 US
Digital Ad Seller.”
Greater insight into the connected TV space, and
the revenues at companies such as Roku and Hulu
in particular, allowed us to better forecast total ad
spending for this channel. (We’ll share the programmatic
estimates for US connected TV ad spending later.) With
more visibility into the connected TV landscape—and
specifically, our understanding that programmatic
accounts for less ad spending than we previously
thought—we had to adjust the programmatic portion
of digital display downward to reflect dollars allocated
to a market that is still largely transacted via traditional
direct insertion orders (IOs). The result: We forecast US
programmatic digital display ad spending will account for
83.5% of total display ad dollars this year vs. the 84.9%
previously forecast.
Our definition of programmatic display ad spending
considers all digital display ad dollars spent
programmatically on banners, rich media, video and
sponsorships across desktop, mobile devices such as
smartphones and tablets, and IP-connected TV and
over-the-top (OTT) devices. Social media and native ad
units are also included.
What’s changed: Our April 2019 forecast anticipated the
US programmatic digital display ad market would reach
$81.00 billion by 2021 and account for 87.5% of all digital
ad dollars. On both fronts, we’ve lowered our numbers
in the October 2019 forecast due to greater visibility
into Amazon’s ad revenues as well as the connected
TV landscape.
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
Nonetheless, the upward trajectory for programmatic
growth and penetration suggests a market that is mature
but still advancing.
The duopoly—and now even the triopoly—accounts
for a majority of programmatic display investment. The
combined US programmatic digital display ad revenues
of Facebook, Google and Amazon will account for 62.0%
of programmatic ad dollars this year. Share will rise to
64.2% by 2021. During this 24-month window, Amazon
will jump from No. 4 in terms of programmatic ad
revenues to No. 3, ahead of Verizon.
This expectation, coupled with the better-than-expected
H1 2019 revenues at the social networks we provide
estimates for (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pinterest
and Snapchat), caused us to raise our forecast for social
as a portion of total programmatic digital display ad
spending. Our April 2019 forecast put social’s portion at
51.3% for 2019; we’ve revised it upward to 56.3%. We
now estimate social networks will account for 57.6% of all
US programmatic digital display ad revenues by 2021.
The Triopoly* Accounts for a Growing Share of
Programmatic Digital Display Ad Dollars in the US,
2019 & 2021
% of total programmatic digital display ad spending
Other
38.0%
Triopoly*
62.0%
Other
35.8%
Triopoly*
64.2%
2019 2021
Note: digital display ads transacted and fulfilled via automation, including
everything from publisher-erected APIs to more standardized RTB
technology; includes native ads and ads on social networks like Facebook
and Twitter; includes advertising that appears on desktop/laptop
computers, mobile phones, tablets and other internet-connected devices;
*includes programmatic digital display ad revenues at Facebook, Google
and Amazon
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2019
250677 www.eMarketer.com
The triopoly’s advantages in rich data sets, audience reach
and closed-loop measurement will continue to attract ad
buyers to these properties. Such advantages will prove
especially attractive in the early days of the California
Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) as ad buyers scramble to
ensure publishers and programmatic buying partners are
compliant and capable of honoring consent. We believe
the social networks, other walled gardens and premium
large-scale publishers, all of which typically exclude
unknown intermediaries, will be considered lower-risk
programmatic channels at first from a CCPA perspective.
The ability of these large, resource-rich companies to
more readily comply with the regulation will also serve to
ease ad buyers’ initial concerns.
A good portion of the remaining 48.7% of programmatic
ad dollars spent outside social networks goes to
programmatic fees also known as the “ad tech tax.”
We estimate $10.35 billion, or 37.6% of all US nonsocial
programmatic ad spending, goes to programmatic fees.
By 2021, $13.63 billion will be spent on programmatic
fees, however, total share of nonsocial programmatic
ad dollars spent on fees will fall slightly to 36.7%. This
speaks to a maturing marketplace and one continuing to
consolidate. It also emphasizes the effects of continued
transparency demands—and sophistication to act on
those insights, be it in the form of supply-path
optimization or fee negotiations with vendors and
other intermediaries.
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
PROGRAMMATIC DIRECT
Programmatic direct, that is, nonauction-based
automated ad buying (of which social accounts
for a big portion), currently represents 61.9% of all
programmatic ad spending. By 2021, that share will
rise to 67.2%, totaling $53.56 billion.
For a more in-depth look at programmatic fees, read
our August 2019 report, “US Programmatic Fees 2019:
Concerns about the ‘Ad Tech Tax’ and Transparency Haven’t
Gone Away.”
While a mature landscape, there are areas of digital
display advertising where automation is still more the
exception than the rule, such as connected TV. Other
areas with ongoing industry challenges including data
privacy, changing auction dynamics and cross-device
identification and measurement continue to create
roadblocks to programmatic ad spending.
A side-by-side of programmatic ad spending by transaction
type offers a greater view of programmatic direct’s
dominance. The two subcategories within real-time
bidding (RTB)—open exchange and PMP—each trail
programmatic direct investment by more than $20 billion.
PMP and open exchange ad spending will grow during
the next 24 months, but the gap between each and
programmatic direct will widen to nearly $40 billion during
the timeframe.
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
Social network ad spending will contribute significantly
to the programmatic direct category during the
forecast period, but so will a growing pool of ad dollars
committed in the form of programmatic guarantees
and other nonauction-based transaction styles, such as
preferred deals. Programmatic direct’s share of nonsocial
programmatic digital display ad spending will rise almost
10 percentage points in the next 24 months thanks to
more guarantees and private deals across video, audio,
native, mobile apps and sponsorships. Inevitably, growth
will come at the expense of both RTB categories, with
open exchange’s share falling faster than PMP.
Factors expected to drive added dollars to programmatic
direct during the next 24 months include:
■■
The continued shift to automated buying and
selling, particularly for premium sellers and
long-standing programmatic holdouts. Ongoing
adoption of programmatic across newer, more premium
ad formats like audio, connected TV and OTT video ads
will draw more dollars into programmatic pipes, likely
in the form of guarantees. The ability to streamline the
buying process, leverage audience insights and take
advantage of cross-screen campaigns will be core
drivers. Demand to simplify cumbersome front-end
processes will also help buyers and sellers shift to
automated media buying and planning tools to shift the
traditional direct IO process—or at least some pieces of
it—to automation.
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
■■
Privacy regulation and other anticipated
privacy-prompted changes may limit some
tracking and targeting capabilities, creating greater
demand for guarantees and direct deals. CCPA and
other likely regulations over the next 24 months will
drive investment in social networks and other walled
gardens for the reasons discussed above. Regulation
combined with growing limitations to third-party
tracking and cookie use across the open ecosystem will
also make other publishers and platforms in possession
of scaled first-party data and cross-device identity
solutions attractive for programmatic campaigns. As
mentioned in prior discussions about such limitations
to third-party tracking, our expectation is that buyers
will turn to more private deals, including guarantees, to
leverage first-party data and mitigate these effects.
Another effect repeatedly raised by experts interviewed
for this report was an anticipated shift away from more
real-time, performance-driven campaigns and toward
more branding-focused, contextually targeted ones.
For both, guarantees and other publisher-direct deals
would be popular. “TV gets critiqued because it’s not
data-driven, it’s not user-level, and it’s not precision
advertising,” said Mario Schiappacasse, head of
programmatic media at digital partner Jellyfish. “But
in 12 months, we may be in a world where we’re all
moving away from precision advertising. If we know
that content and context are excellent proxies to
audiences, even if audience targeting starts to go away,
you still have solutions.”
Will Contextual Targeting Make a Comeback?
Does contextual targeting merit the buzz it’s received
this year?
While there’s little industry research or data to suggest
that ad buyers are putting more dollars into contextual
placements just yet, the idea for contextual targeting,
particularly in the face of uncertainty as to the future
of RTB (more on that later) and the changing privacy
landscape, carries merit and momentum.
We don’t predict contextual targeting will force a
reinvention of programmatic buying, but we do predict
it will make more of a comeback in certain phases of the
customer funnel or purchase journey, particularly those
where advertisers have historically over-relied on bought
or borrowed third-party behavioral data. This includes parts
of the prospecting funnel that lean heavily on third-party
data sets, such as awareness building; it also includes the
use of tactics such as retargeting in parts of the journey like
building loyalty or advocacy where advertisers could see
better return (and brand lift) from ditching high-frequency
ad reminders for more contextual placements.
We also expect to see contextual targeting take on new
meaning in 2020 and beyond. Experts interviewed for this
report varied in their descriptions and aspirations for this
new era of contextual targeting, ranging from tried-and-true
publisher placements to using nonbehavioral (e.g., weather,
time of day) data in RTB to reach audiences at the right time
and in a privacy-compliant way.
Many also expressed optimism that such a move from
pure behavioral data toward other indicators of who a
customer is, what they want and what they need will also
help to drive greater investment in the creative required to
deliver that context regardless of the form.
“The tradeoff for a lot of brands in the past has been
choosing the efficiency of programmatic media vs. the
humanity and empathy of creative storytelling,” said Ellie
Bamford, vice president of media at advertising agency
R/GA. “This has been the dilemma—the line between
contextual relevance and data stalking. Everyone’s sold on
the idea that better data makes better creative and leads
to better outcomes. But the point we’re getting to now is
figuring out how to deliver value and meaning at every
media touchpoint. And that comes from creativity.”
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8
The Industry Needs a Better Standard for “Incentivized Traffic”
This article was contributed and sponsored by Publishers Clearing House.
Steve Bagdasarian
Assistant Vice President &
General Manager
Publishers Clearing
House Media
You could tell the entire story of digital media
through its efforts to institute common
standards for defining and transacting media.
Spearheaded by organizations, like the Interactive
Advertising Bureau (IAB) and Media Research Center
(MRC), the standardization of common definitions,
formats and processes has paved the way for
astronomical growth in our industry. We have made
huge strides toward eliminating fraud and malware,
ensuring viewability and establishing a more fair and
transparent supply chain. Faced with the impending
“death of the cookie,” these organizations are
tasked today with creating a unified standard for
post-cookie targeting and identity resolution—all
urgent and worthwhile endeavors.
We’d like to suggest another worthwhile
endeavor—an update to the industry’s efforts to
institute common definitions: namely, to narrow
and specify the standard for what counts as
“incentivized traffic.”
The IAB issued its most direct definition in its
2014 “Ad Fraud Principles” paper, which defined
incentivized traffic as “traffic that comes from
humans co-opted into interacting with ads through
means other than the ad itself.” The definition
provides an elegant description of clear-cut
incentivization: instances where users are paid to
click, paid to engage, offered in one way or another
a direct reward for activities that they would not
undertake otherwise.
But the broad definition also ensnares a number of
non-fraudulent activities that are core to the
principles of marketing itself. As MediaPost noted
in its coverage of IAB’s report, “The new principles
seem to criticize activity that’s not in itself
fraudulent—or even necessarily problematic. After
all, a wide range of ad-supported media offers
users some sort of benefit—like the opportunity
to read a news article, watch a tv show or listen to
music—in exchange for viewing ads.”
At what point does a desire to consume the editorial
product count as an incentive? If a user sits through
a pre-roll ad in order to watch a video, was their
traffic incentivized? If a user sits through a mid-roll
ad during a podcast, in order to keep listening to
it, were they incentivized to listen to it? One could
understand all ad-supported content as offering
those who consume it an incentive to engage
with advertising. That doesn’t mean it’s fraudulent.
In most cases, it means it’s good. Ultimately, the
relative performance of the media mapped back to
an advertiser’s metric defines what is good.
Content is becoming more engaging and more
gamified precisely because ad-supported media
wants to incentivize users to engage with more
ads. The mechanisms for encouraging such
engagement range from the benign to the outright
fraudulent—all of them, however, contain some
measure of incentivization.
Today, the mechanisms for detecting and
preventing fraudulent traffic have been forced to
draw arbitrary lines in this grey area, maligning
legitimate publishers while providing clear
loopholes for bad actors.
The ongoing trend toward gamified and rewardbased
content experiences increases the urgency
for more clarity and specificity in this definition. As
the IAB and other industry bodies continue their
critical work to improve our common standards,
this is an immensely valuable area for them to
concentrate their focus.
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REAL-TIME BIDDING
Over the past 24 months, RTB has undergone
significant change thanks to advancements in
auction dynamics, the EU’s General Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR) and increasing scrutiny that
privacy professionals worldwide have placed on
RTB’s ability to uphold consent and legitimate
data-sharing practices.
The broader RTB category, which includes open markets
and PMPs, already accounts for 38.1% of total US
programmatic display ad spending in the US this year, or
$21.80 billion. Investment in both RTB-based transaction
types will rise throughout the forecast period. However,
RTB’s overall share will fall to 32.8% by 2021 as growth in
programmatic direct outpaces this category.
OPEN EXCHANGE AD SPENDING
Fewer than one in five programmatic display ad dollars
goes to the open markets today, but the share of RTB
ad dollars going to the open markets is still greater than
that going to PMPs. Open exchange ad spending will
total $11.21 billion this year, compared with $10.60 billion
for PMPs. Investment in open exchanges will continue
over the next 24 months, but growth is beginning to level
off. Next year, spending in PMPs will surpass the open
markets for the first time. In 2020 and 2021, PMP growth
will outstrip open exchange growth 3-to-1.
Continued preference for the open markets among
performance-heavy or time-sensitive buyers, combined
with the continued rollout of unified auctions, as well
as advanced bidding in-app and for video, will help drive
open market spending to $12.33 billion by 2021. Also
helping to keep dollars here vs. PMPs and programmatic
guarantees are continued pushes from buyers and sellers
to adopt the various tags and files needed to make the
open markets more transparent (e.g., ads.txt, app-ads.txt
and sellers.json).
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11
But a host of factors continue to plague open exchanges,
calling into question the current state of their existence.
These include:
■■
■■
Uncertainties about the extent of the CCPA and
other regulatory effects. It’s hard to predict the effects
of CCPA and other potential regulatory actions, but the
effects of regulation elsewhere, such as GDPR, can
provide guidance. One such expectation is a heightened
concern or caution among ad buyers around open
market buying once CCPA goes into effect. A similar
reaction was observed with GDPR, which meant an
initial pause among many buyers in their open market
participation to ensure the parties they were buying
from had, in fact, obtained consent. While CCPA
applies only to California residents and their data, and
it is opt-out, not opt-in, we believe extra caution will
be applied at first, which will cause initial hesitation in
open market spending. Long term, such effects may
subside as buyers and sellers gain better insight into
the obtainment of consent and proper handling of data.
The potential for RTB to be deemed in violation
of GDPR. In June 2019, the UK’s Information
Commissioner’s Office (ICO) issued a report called,
“Update Report into Adtech and Real-Time Bidding.”
That report contained a warning to the digital
advertising industry: It stated that RTB may be in
violation of GDPR, given the inability for parties to
properly police the passing of consent flags and
identify all parties using and sharing consumer data. If
parties cannot track this, they cannot entirely validate
consumer consent. The report stated that the industry
must review its RTB infrastructure within a six-month
window and come up with a solution for this problem,
or it may face regulatory fines. That window is up this
December, and the outcome of this review could have
significant effects on the use of cookies, device-level
identifiers and other sources to which anonymized
personal information is often appended. While the EU
would bear the brunt of the effects, it’s likely the US
would also see similar fallout.
■■
■■
The continued pursuit of direct ad server
integrations. Thanks to interest in unified auctions
and advancements in header and in-app bidding
(the latter of which is commonly referred to as app
bidding, in-app header bidding or advanced bidding),
many interviewed for this report noted that more
demand-side platforms are pursuing direct ad server
integrations—and side-stepping the use of supply-side
platforms (SSPs) in the process. To some extent, this
is a continuation of supply-path-optimization efforts,
but it’s also a step that will inevitably place greater
emphasis on having PMPs and other private deal
markers within the ad server to maintain priority.
Lack of a universal identifier. Digital marketers have
yearned for a universal identifier—a way to identify
individuals across all devices and domains—for years.
But focus on this topic is heightened thanks to the
deterioration of third-party tracking capabilities and
acknowledging that one way to keep the open web
competing against the triopoly for digital ad dollars is to
offer comparable measurement and targeting options.
With companies such as LiveRamp, The Trade Desk and
the IAB Tech Lab pursuing their own identifiers and ID
consortia, there appears to be more momentum on this
front than ever before. But it’s optimistic to assume the
industry can wholly settle on one, or a few, solutions to
power their open web identity efforts within the next
12 months. In the interim, expect continued identity
challenges beyond the walled gardens.
■■
The fact that the most high-growth programmatic
formats and channels—connected TV, OTT and
audio—largely avoid the open markets. Buyers and
sellers looking to bring automation to their premium
video and audio inventory are doing so in ways more
comparable to how these formats and channels have
historically been purchased—via direct deals like PMPs
and guarantees.
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12
PRIVATE MARKETPLACE AD SPENDING
Next year, for the first time, ad spending on PMPs will
surpass open exchanges. PMP ad spending will enjoy
double-digit growth throughout the forecast period, and
PMPs will comprise a growing portion of total RTB ad
dollars, but PMP’s share of the broader programmatic
space will inevitably decline at the expense of
programmatic direct’s continued expansion.
Many of the factors limiting open market investment are
driving dollars into PMPs, which buyers and sellers deem
safer and more compatible with their long-term strategies.
Also driving investment in PMPs over the next 24
months are:
■
Improved capabilities for discovering, planning and
transacting in PMPs. Experts interviewed
for this report noted that the past 12 months have
brought greater sophistication and advancement to
PMP inventory discovery and campaign planning and
management tools. These tools are making PMP setup
and maintenance less cumbersome and labor intensive.
They also noted these advancements are making it
easier to transact against key performance indicators
(KPIs) and campaign metrics beyond CPMs.
■
Continued emphasis on first- and second-party
data. For the past couple of years, buyers and sellers
have acknowledged the importance of first- and secondparty
data (second-party data is first-party data owned
by a publisher, platform or other partner) for building
stronger identity graphs and sharing unique audience
insights. But with the fate of third-party tracking and
data on the line, focus has intensified. PMPs continue
to prove a primary real-time means
of bringing first-party data into a campaign or gaining
access to premium audience insights selectively shared
by publishers. “As the cookie starts to go away and the
shelf life is diminished, third-party data won’t be able to
be used in as many places,” said Ryan Fleisch, head of
product marketing for Adobe Advertising Cloud. “We’re
seeing clients really care about making the most of
every impression that we’re serving because in certain
cases, we might not have the same luxury of scale in
the next 12 to 24 months that we’ve had in the past.”
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13
■
■
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Programmatic is now the norm for buying and
selling digital display ads. While select advertisers and
sellers may still be transitioning to programmatic across
areas like in-app, audio, connected TV and
OTT, the tide is continuing to carry buyers and sellers
toward automation.
RTB continues to play an important role in
programmatic, but privacy regulations and other
changes to customer data use and targeting
practices may force change in the next 24 months.
As was the case with GDPR, uncertainty for regulatory
compliance and consent practices will drive greater
activity in PMPs, guarantees and walled-garden
buys, and we expect to see similar effects in 2020
and beyond.
Mike Caprio
Divisional President
Zeta Global
Interviewed August 14, 2019
Denise Colella
Senior Vice President,
Advanced Advertising Products and Strategy
NBCUniversal
Interviewed August 13, 2019
Geisla de Souza
Head of Display EMEA and APAC
and Paid Media Operations
Jellyfish
Interviewed August 12, 2019
Kevin Fennelley
Senior Director, Device Graph and TV Products
dataxu
Interviewed August 28, 2019
EMARKETER INTERVIEWS
Greg Anderson
Managing Director
Xaxis
Interviewed August 12, 2019
Ellie Bamford
Vice President, Media
R/GA
Interviewed August 28, 2019
Youssef Ben-Youssef
Head of Ad Platform
Roku
Interviewed August 12, 2019
Amanda Betsold
Vice President, Head of Programmatic
iCrossing
Interviewed August 6, 2019
Glenn Fishback
Chief Revenue Officer
Smaato
Interviewed August 12, 2019
Ryan Fleisch
Head of Product Marketing,
Adobe Advertising Cloud
Adobe
Interviewed August 14, 2019
Doug Fleming
Head of Advanced TV
Hulu
Interviewed August 12, 2019
Anne Frisbie
Senior Vice President,
Global Brand and Programmatic
InMobi
Interviewed August 28, 2019
Marc Grabowski
Executive Vice President, Global Supply
Criteo
Interviewed August 16, 2019
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14
Jeff Hirsch
CMO and Head of US Publisher Development
PubMatic
Interviewed August 6, 2019
James Malins
Senior Vice President, Programmatic
Amobee
Interviewed August 15, 2019
Julien Hirth
Founder
Scibids
Interviewed August 15, 2019
Amanda Martin
Director, Enterprise Partnerships
Goodway Group
Interviewed August 8, 2019
Jeremy Hlavacek
Head of Revenue
Watson Advertising
Interviewed August 7, 2019
Tahira McGhee
Group Director, Media Management
R/GA
Interviewed August 28, 2019
Kevin Hunt
Senior Vice President, Global Marketing
SpotX
Interviewed August 14, 2019
Ramsey McGrory
Chief Revenue Officer
MediaOcean
Interviewed August 8, 2019
Aleksandra Injac
US Programmatic Practice Lead
Mindshare
Interviewed August 27, 2019
Hiten Mistry
Senior Vice President, Product Management
Centro
Interviewed August 8, 2019
Anthony Katsur
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Operations
Nexstar Digital
Interviewed August 16, 2019
Jordan Mitchell
Senior Vice President, IAB Tech Lab
Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
Interviewed August 13, 2019
Walter Knapp
CEO
Sovrn
Interviewed August 8, 2019
David Kohl
President, CEO
TrustX
Interviewed August 13, 2019
Harry Kratel
Vice President, Global Marketing
Smaato
Interviewed August 12, 2019
James Lawson
CEO, Board Member
AdTheorent, Inc.
Interviewed August 16, 2019
Interviewed August 14, 2019
Liane Nadeau
Vice President and Group Director,
Head of Programmatic
Digitas North America
Ari Paparo
CEO
Beeswax
Interviewed August 2, 2019
Matt Prohaska
CEO, Principal
Prohaska Consulting
Interviewed August 14, 2019
Michael Provenzano
Co-Founder, CEO
Vistar Media
Interviewed August 2, 2019
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15
Jon Schulz
CMO
Viant
Interviewed August 28, 2019
Nimrod Zuta
Vice President, Product
ironSource
Interviewed October 28, 2019
Mario Schiappacasse
Head of Programmatic Media
Jellyfish
Interviewed August 12, 2019
Jude O’Connor
General Manager, Brand, North America
AdColony
Interviewed August 13, 2019
Justin Silberman
Vice President, Product
Dailymotion
Interviewed August 7, 2019
Philip Smolin
Chief Strategy Officer
Amobee
Interviewed August 15, 2019
Scott Symonds
Managing Director
AKQA
Interviewed August 7, 2019
Todd Tran
Global Senior Vice President, Programmatic
Teads
Interviewed August 16, 2019
Jackie Vanover
Vice President, DSP
MediaMath
Interviewed August 15, 2019
Dean Vegliante
President
Netmining
Interviewed August 13, 2019
READ NEXT
Amazon Advertising 2019: Growth and Performance
Are Strong at the No. 3 US Digital Ad Seller
Digital Display Ad Pricing StatPack: Banner, Video,
Mobile and Native CPMs, and Pricing Trends to Watch
for in 2019
Digital Marketing in Today’s Privacy-Conscious World:
What Companies Need to Know About GDPR, CCPA
and Other Industry Changes in the Next 12 Months
US Programmatic Ad Spending Forecast 2019: Nearly
Half of Programmatic Ad Dollars Now Go to Video
US Programmatic Fees 2019: Concerns about the ‘Ad
Tech Tax’ and Transparency Haven’t Gone Away.
US Subscription Video Landscape 2019: Bracing for an
Onslaught of New Services
Video Ads in Social Media 2019: Creators Are in
Demand on Social Properties. Here’s Why—and What
It Means for YouTube
Digital Ad Fraud 2019: Mobile and Video Remain
Riskiest Channels
EDITORIAL AND
PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Terri Walter
Chief Growth Officer
TrustX
Interviewed August 13, 2019
Manu Warikoo
Chief Product Officer
MediaOcean
Interviewed August 8, 2019
Anam Baig
Joanne DiCamillo
Donte Gibson
Katie Hamblin
Dana Hill
Erika Huber
Ann Marie Kerwin
Stephanie Meyer
Heather Price
Magenta Ranero
Amanda Silvestri
Senior Editor
Senior Production Artist
Chart Editor
Chart Editorial Manager
Director of Production
Copy Editor
Executive Editor, Content Strategy
Senior Production Artist
Deputy Editor
Senior Chart Editor
Senior Copy Editor
US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16
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