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US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL

DISPLAY AD SPENDING, PART 1

The vast majority (83.5%) of US digital display ad dollars are transacted using

programmatic technology today. This eMarketer Report, part 1 of 2, features our

forecast for US programmatic digital display ad spending* through 2021, and

provides context on programmatic direct and real-time bidding.

*This forecast was completed in October 2019 and does not include impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.

Our forecasts are for the full year, and there is still a strong possibility that the virus could be contained in the

coming months, allowing for a rebound in H2 2020. In most countries we forecast, the bulk of ad spending

takes place during the latter part of the year for the holiday season. We will continue to monitor the situation

and revise our numbers semiannually as we get a better understanding of the long-term impact of COVID-19

on the global economy.

presented by


Dear eMarketer Reader,

eMarketer is pleased to make this report, US Programmatic Digital Display

Ad Spending (Part 1), available to our readers.

This report is a great example of eMarketer data and insights that explores our

updated forecast for US programmatic digital display ad spending through 2021,

and provides context on programmatic direct and real-time bidding.

We invite you to learn more about eMarketer’s approach to research and why

we are considered the industry standard by the world’s leading brands, media

companies and agencies.

We thank you for your interest in our report and Publishers Clearing House for

making it possible to offer it to you today.

Best Regards,

Nancy Taffera-Santos

Nancy Taffera-Santos

SVP, Media Solutions & Strategy, eMarketer

eMarketer, Inc.

11 Times Square, Floor 14

New York, NY 10036

www.emarketer.com

nancyts@emarketer.com


US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING: CONNECTED TV AD

DOLLARS WILL SURPASS DESKTOP BY 2021

The vast majority (83.5%) of US digital display ad dollars are transacted using programmatic technology today.

The triopoly now accounts for a significant share of

programmatic display ad dollars in the US. So do the

social networks.

More than half of the $57.30 billion US advertisers

spend on programmatic digital display ads this year

goes to social networks—companies that lean heavily

on automation and data-driven technology to grant

advertisers audience scale and precision. Facebook’s ad

revenues contribute significantly to the social network

share, as well as the triopoly’s share. Combined, the US

programmatic digital display ad revenues of the triopoly

(Google, Facebook and Amazon) also account for half of

the programmatic display ad market.

While the vast majority of mobile display ad dollars

transact programmatically, some programmatic

practices are still developing.

This year, $46.86 billion, or 88.7% of all US mobile display

ad dollars, will transact via automated means. While

programmatic is well-established in areas like social and

mobile web, practices including in-app bidding, private

marketplaces (PMPs) and other programmatic tactics

are only now ramping up in certain parts of the in-app

space. Moving forward, in-app ad opportunities will prove

increasingly important as limitations to third-party tracking

plague desktop and mobile web advertisers.

Video continues to account for a significant share of

the market, with practically half of all programmatic

ad dollars in the US coming from video by 2021.

Video is one of the fastest-growing digital display ad

formats, and our new connected TV breakout confirms

that more than one in 10 programmatic video ad dollars

already goes to connected TV. Over the next 24 months,

connected TV will grab video ad spending share from

desktop, as it makes its march to $6.26 billion by 2021.

At that time, programmatic ads delivered to connected

TVs will account for 15.9% of total programmatic video,

compared with just 9.0% for desktop and laptop.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report presents our

updated forecast for US programmatic digital display ad

spending through 2021. It provides context for how the

programmatic market is growing across transaction types,

formats and devices.

KEY STAT: By 2021, US digital display advertisers will

invest nearly $80 billion in programmatic advertising.

CONTENTS

2 US Programmatic Digital Display Ad Spending: Connected

TV Ad Dollars Will Surpass Desktop by 2021

4 Programmatic Digital Display Ad Spending Outlook

6 Programmatic Direct

11 Real-Time Bidding

14 Key Takeaways

14 eMarketer Interviews

16 Read Next

16 Editorial and Production Contributors

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY 2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2


What’s Inside:

This report explores how much US ad buyers will invest

in programmatic advertising through 2021, highlighting

critical trends and influences. It includes eMarketer

estimates for the following areas:

Total US Programmatic Digital Display Ad Spending

US Programmatic Direct Digital Display Ad Spending

US Digital Display Ad Spending Transacted via Real-Time

Bidding (RTB)

US Digital Display Ad Spending Transacted via

Open Exchanges

US Digital Display Ad Spending Transacted via

Private Marketplaces

Behind the Numbers

eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on

an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from

research firms, government agencies, media firms and

public companies, plus interviews with top executives

at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted

based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer

forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts,

with the same assumptions and general framework used

to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular

re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect

the latest business developments, technology trends and

economic changes.

Defining Programmatic Advertising

eMarketer defines programmatic advertising as an

automated, technology-driven method of buying, selling or

fulfilling digital display ad placements.

Real-Time Bidding (RTB): Auction-based approach used to

buy or sell impression-level inventory. Auctions can either

be public or private.

Programmatic Direct: Non-auction-based approach to

buying or selling ad inventory, not at the impression

level. Programmatic direct deals can be orchestrated via

preexisting RTB technology, through publisher-owned APIs

such as on social sites or via self-service user interface

or deal discovery tools. Programmatic direct deals

specify a fixed price and may or may not guarantee fixed

inventory amounts.

Open Exchange: Public RTB auction open to all buyers and

sellers; also called an open auction or open marketplace.

Private Marketplace: Auction owned by a single publisher

or a small group of publishers and open only to a select

number of invited buyers; also called a private exchange,

private auction or PMP. These are typically executed via

normal RTB technology and may include a deal ID, a tag

that notifies the auction that a specific buyer has some sort

of preferential treatment, whether in price or priority.

Programmatic Guaranteed: Upfront commitment to

both CPM price and inventory amount secured via

programmatic pipes between one buyer and one seller;

also called programmatic reserved, forward market or

just “upfronts.”

Preferred Deal: Upfront commitment to inventory price but

not inventory amount between one buyer and one seller;

also called private access or first right of refusal.

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY

©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3


PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY

AD SPENDING OUTLOOK

Over the next 24 months, an incremental $22 billion

will enter the programmatic digital display

advertising market as advertisers continue to rely

on automation to power their banner, video, social,

native and even connected TV ad buys. By 2021,

86.5% of all US digital display ad dollars, or nearly

$80 billion, will transact programmatically.

Our ability to break out Amazon ad revenues by format

in our October 2019 US ad spending forecast meant

a reclassification of a significant number of digital ad

dollars away from display and into search. This newly

lowered topline amount for US digital display ad spending

was then the foundation of the latest programmatic

forecast, which in turn lowered the total dollar amount for

programmatic digital display ad spending.

For our complete US Amazon advertising forecast, read

our November 2019 report, “Amazon Advertising 2019:

Growth and Performance Are Strong at the No. 3 US

Digital Ad Seller.”

Greater insight into the connected TV space, and

the revenues at companies such as Roku and Hulu

in particular, allowed us to better forecast total ad

spending for this channel. (We’ll share the programmatic

estimates for US connected TV ad spending later.) With

more visibility into the connected TV landscape—and

specifically, our understanding that programmatic

accounts for less ad spending than we previously

thought—we had to adjust the programmatic portion

of digital display downward to reflect dollars allocated

to a market that is still largely transacted via traditional

direct insertion orders (IOs). The result: We forecast US

programmatic digital display ad spending will account for

83.5% of total display ad dollars this year vs. the 84.9%

previously forecast.

Our definition of programmatic display ad spending

considers all digital display ad dollars spent

programmatically on banners, rich media, video and

sponsorships across desktop, mobile devices such as

smartphones and tablets, and IP-connected TV and

over-the-top (OTT) devices. Social media and native ad

units are also included.

What’s changed: Our April 2019 forecast anticipated the

US programmatic digital display ad market would reach

$81.00 billion by 2021 and account for 87.5% of all digital

ad dollars. On both fronts, we’ve lowered our numbers

in the October 2019 forecast due to greater visibility

into Amazon’s ad revenues as well as the connected

TV landscape.

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4


Nonetheless, the upward trajectory for programmatic

growth and penetration suggests a market that is mature

but still advancing.

The duopoly—and now even the triopoly—accounts

for a majority of programmatic display investment. The

combined US programmatic digital display ad revenues

of Facebook, Google and Amazon will account for 62.0%

of programmatic ad dollars this year. Share will rise to

64.2% by 2021. During this 24-month window, Amazon

will jump from No. 4 in terms of programmatic ad

revenues to No. 3, ahead of Verizon.

This expectation, coupled with the better-than-expected

H1 2019 revenues at the social networks we provide

estimates for (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pinterest

and Snapchat), caused us to raise our forecast for social

as a portion of total programmatic digital display ad

spending. Our April 2019 forecast put social’s portion at

51.3% for 2019; we’ve revised it upward to 56.3%. We

now estimate social networks will account for 57.6% of all

US programmatic digital display ad revenues by 2021.

The Triopoly* Accounts for a Growing Share of

Programmatic Digital Display Ad Dollars in the US,

2019 & 2021

% of total programmatic digital display ad spending

Other

38.0%

Triopoly*

62.0%

Other

35.8%

Triopoly*

64.2%

2019 2021

Note: digital display ads transacted and fulfilled via automation, including

everything from publisher-erected APIs to more standardized RTB

technology; includes native ads and ads on social networks like Facebook

and Twitter; includes advertising that appears on desktop/laptop

computers, mobile phones, tablets and other internet-connected devices;

*includes programmatic digital display ad revenues at Facebook, Google

and Amazon

Source: eMarketer, Oct 2019

250677 www.eMarketer.com

The triopoly’s advantages in rich data sets, audience reach

and closed-loop measurement will continue to attract ad

buyers to these properties. Such advantages will prove

especially attractive in the early days of the California

Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) as ad buyers scramble to

ensure publishers and programmatic buying partners are

compliant and capable of honoring consent. We believe

the social networks, other walled gardens and premium

large-scale publishers, all of which typically exclude

unknown intermediaries, will be considered lower-risk

programmatic channels at first from a CCPA perspective.

The ability of these large, resource-rich companies to

more readily comply with the regulation will also serve to

ease ad buyers’ initial concerns.

A good portion of the remaining 48.7% of programmatic

ad dollars spent outside social networks goes to

programmatic fees also known as the “ad tech tax.”

We estimate $10.35 billion, or 37.6% of all US nonsocial

programmatic ad spending, goes to programmatic fees.

By 2021, $13.63 billion will be spent on programmatic

fees, however, total share of nonsocial programmatic

ad dollars spent on fees will fall slightly to 36.7%. This

speaks to a maturing marketplace and one continuing to

consolidate. It also emphasizes the effects of continued

transparency demands—and sophistication to act on

those insights, be it in the form of supply-path

optimization or fee negotiations with vendors and

other intermediaries.

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5


PROGRAMMATIC DIRECT

Programmatic direct, that is, nonauction-based

automated ad buying (of which social accounts

for a big portion), currently represents 61.9% of all

programmatic ad spending. By 2021, that share will

rise to 67.2%, totaling $53.56 billion.

For a more in-depth look at programmatic fees, read

our August 2019 report, “US Programmatic Fees 2019:

Concerns about the ‘Ad Tech Tax’ and Transparency Haven’t

Gone Away.”

While a mature landscape, there are areas of digital

display advertising where automation is still more the

exception than the rule, such as connected TV. Other

areas with ongoing industry challenges including data

privacy, changing auction dynamics and cross-device

identification and measurement continue to create

roadblocks to programmatic ad spending.

A side-by-side of programmatic ad spending by transaction

type offers a greater view of programmatic direct’s

dominance. The two subcategories within real-time

bidding (RTB)—open exchange and PMP—each trail

programmatic direct investment by more than $20 billion.

PMP and open exchange ad spending will grow during

the next 24 months, but the gap between each and

programmatic direct will widen to nearly $40 billion during

the timeframe.

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6


Social network ad spending will contribute significantly

to the programmatic direct category during the

forecast period, but so will a growing pool of ad dollars

committed in the form of programmatic guarantees

and other nonauction-based transaction styles, such as

preferred deals. Programmatic direct’s share of nonsocial

programmatic digital display ad spending will rise almost

10 percentage points in the next 24 months thanks to

more guarantees and private deals across video, audio,

native, mobile apps and sponsorships. Inevitably, growth

will come at the expense of both RTB categories, with

open exchange’s share falling faster than PMP.

Factors expected to drive added dollars to programmatic

direct during the next 24 months include:

■■

The continued shift to automated buying and

selling, particularly for premium sellers and

long-standing programmatic holdouts. Ongoing

adoption of programmatic across newer, more premium

ad formats like audio, connected TV and OTT video ads

will draw more dollars into programmatic pipes, likely

in the form of guarantees. The ability to streamline the

buying process, leverage audience insights and take

advantage of cross-screen campaigns will be core

drivers. Demand to simplify cumbersome front-end

processes will also help buyers and sellers shift to

automated media buying and planning tools to shift the

traditional direct IO process—or at least some pieces of

it—to automation.

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7


■■

Privacy regulation and other anticipated

privacy-prompted changes may limit some

tracking and targeting capabilities, creating greater

demand for guarantees and direct deals. CCPA and

other likely regulations over the next 24 months will

drive investment in social networks and other walled

gardens for the reasons discussed above. Regulation

combined with growing limitations to third-party

tracking and cookie use across the open ecosystem will

also make other publishers and platforms in possession

of scaled first-party data and cross-device identity

solutions attractive for programmatic campaigns. As

mentioned in prior discussions about such limitations

to third-party tracking, our expectation is that buyers

will turn to more private deals, including guarantees, to

leverage first-party data and mitigate these effects.

Another effect repeatedly raised by experts interviewed

for this report was an anticipated shift away from more

real-time, performance-driven campaigns and toward

more branding-focused, contextually targeted ones.

For both, guarantees and other publisher-direct deals

would be popular. “TV gets critiqued because it’s not

data-driven, it’s not user-level, and it’s not precision

advertising,” said Mario Schiappacasse, head of

programmatic media at digital partner Jellyfish. “But

in 12 months, we may be in a world where we’re all

moving away from precision advertising. If we know

that content and context are excellent proxies to

audiences, even if audience targeting starts to go away,

you still have solutions.”

Will Contextual Targeting Make a Comeback?

Does contextual targeting merit the buzz it’s received

this year?

While there’s little industry research or data to suggest

that ad buyers are putting more dollars into contextual

placements just yet, the idea for contextual targeting,

particularly in the face of uncertainty as to the future

of RTB (more on that later) and the changing privacy

landscape, carries merit and momentum.

We don’t predict contextual targeting will force a

reinvention of programmatic buying, but we do predict

it will make more of a comeback in certain phases of the

customer funnel or purchase journey, particularly those

where advertisers have historically over-relied on bought

or borrowed third-party behavioral data. This includes parts

of the prospecting funnel that lean heavily on third-party

data sets, such as awareness building; it also includes the

use of tactics such as retargeting in parts of the journey like

building loyalty or advocacy where advertisers could see

better return (and brand lift) from ditching high-frequency

ad reminders for more contextual placements.

We also expect to see contextual targeting take on new

meaning in 2020 and beyond. Experts interviewed for this

report varied in their descriptions and aspirations for this

new era of contextual targeting, ranging from tried-and-true

publisher placements to using nonbehavioral (e.g., weather,

time of day) data in RTB to reach audiences at the right time

and in a privacy-compliant way.

Many also expressed optimism that such a move from

pure behavioral data toward other indicators of who a

customer is, what they want and what they need will also

help to drive greater investment in the creative required to

deliver that context regardless of the form.

“The tradeoff for a lot of brands in the past has been

choosing the efficiency of programmatic media vs. the

humanity and empathy of creative storytelling,” said Ellie

Bamford, vice president of media at advertising agency

R/GA. “This has been the dilemma—the line between

contextual relevance and data stalking. Everyone’s sold on

the idea that better data makes better creative and leads

to better outcomes. But the point we’re getting to now is

figuring out how to deliver value and meaning at every

media touchpoint. And that comes from creativity.”

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8


The Industry Needs a Better Standard for “Incentivized Traffic”

This article was contributed and sponsored by Publishers Clearing House.

Steve Bagdasarian

Assistant Vice President &

General Manager

Publishers Clearing

House Media

You could tell the entire story of digital media

through its efforts to institute common

standards for defining and transacting media.

Spearheaded by organizations, like the Interactive

Advertising Bureau (IAB) and Media Research Center

(MRC), the standardization of common definitions,

formats and processes has paved the way for

astronomical growth in our industry. We have made

huge strides toward eliminating fraud and malware,

ensuring viewability and establishing a more fair and

transparent supply chain. Faced with the impending

“death of the cookie,” these organizations are

tasked today with creating a unified standard for

post-cookie targeting and identity resolution—all

urgent and worthwhile endeavors.

We’d like to suggest another worthwhile

endeavor—an update to the industry’s efforts to

institute common definitions: namely, to narrow

and specify the standard for what counts as

“incentivized traffic.”

The IAB issued its most direct definition in its

2014 “Ad Fraud Principles” paper, which defined

incentivized traffic as “traffic that comes from

humans co-opted into interacting with ads through

means other than the ad itself.” The definition

provides an elegant description of clear-cut

incentivization: instances where users are paid to

click, paid to engage, offered in one way or another

a direct reward for activities that they would not

undertake otherwise.

But the broad definition also ensnares a number of

non-fraudulent activities that are core to the

principles of marketing itself. As MediaPost noted

in its coverage of IAB’s report, “The new principles

seem to criticize activity that’s not in itself

fraudulent—or even necessarily problematic. After

all, a wide range of ad-supported media offers

users some sort of benefit—like the opportunity

to read a news article, watch a tv show or listen to

music—in exchange for viewing ads.”

At what point does a desire to consume the editorial

product count as an incentive? If a user sits through

a pre-roll ad in order to watch a video, was their

traffic incentivized? If a user sits through a mid-roll

ad during a podcast, in order to keep listening to

it, were they incentivized to listen to it? One could

understand all ad-supported content as offering

those who consume it an incentive to engage

with advertising. That doesn’t mean it’s fraudulent.

In most cases, it means it’s good. Ultimately, the

relative performance of the media mapped back to

an advertiser’s metric defines what is good.

Content is becoming more engaging and more

gamified precisely because ad-supported media

wants to incentivize users to engage with more

ads. The mechanisms for encouraging such

engagement range from the benign to the outright

fraudulent—all of them, however, contain some

measure of incentivization.

Today, the mechanisms for detecting and

preventing fraudulent traffic have been forced to

draw arbitrary lines in this grey area, maligning

legitimate publishers while providing clear

loopholes for bad actors.

The ongoing trend toward gamified and rewardbased

content experiences increases the urgency

for more clarity and specificity in this definition. As

the IAB and other industry bodies continue their

critical work to improve our common standards,

this is an immensely valuable area for them to

concentrate their focus.

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY 9


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MATTERS

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REAL-TIME BIDDING

Over the past 24 months, RTB has undergone

significant change thanks to advancements in

auction dynamics, the EU’s General Data Protection

Regulation (GDPR) and increasing scrutiny that

privacy professionals worldwide have placed on

RTB’s ability to uphold consent and legitimate

data-sharing practices.

The broader RTB category, which includes open markets

and PMPs, already accounts for 38.1% of total US

programmatic display ad spending in the US this year, or

$21.80 billion. Investment in both RTB-based transaction

types will rise throughout the forecast period. However,

RTB’s overall share will fall to 32.8% by 2021 as growth in

programmatic direct outpaces this category.

OPEN EXCHANGE AD SPENDING

Fewer than one in five programmatic display ad dollars

goes to the open markets today, but the share of RTB

ad dollars going to the open markets is still greater than

that going to PMPs. Open exchange ad spending will

total $11.21 billion this year, compared with $10.60 billion

for PMPs. Investment in open exchanges will continue

over the next 24 months, but growth is beginning to level

off. Next year, spending in PMPs will surpass the open

markets for the first time. In 2020 and 2021, PMP growth

will outstrip open exchange growth 3-to-1.

Continued preference for the open markets among

performance-heavy or time-sensitive buyers, combined

with the continued rollout of unified auctions, as well

as advanced bidding in-app and for video, will help drive

open market spending to $12.33 billion by 2021. Also

helping to keep dollars here vs. PMPs and programmatic

guarantees are continued pushes from buyers and sellers

to adopt the various tags and files needed to make the

open markets more transparent (e.g., ads.txt, app-ads.txt

and sellers.json).

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11


But a host of factors continue to plague open exchanges,

calling into question the current state of their existence.

These include:

■■

■■

Uncertainties about the extent of the CCPA and

other regulatory effects. It’s hard to predict the effects

of CCPA and other potential regulatory actions, but the

effects of regulation elsewhere, such as GDPR, can

provide guidance. One such expectation is a heightened

concern or caution among ad buyers around open

market buying once CCPA goes into effect. A similar

reaction was observed with GDPR, which meant an

initial pause among many buyers in their open market

participation to ensure the parties they were buying

from had, in fact, obtained consent. While CCPA

applies only to California residents and their data, and

it is opt-out, not opt-in, we believe extra caution will

be applied at first, which will cause initial hesitation in

open market spending. Long term, such effects may

subside as buyers and sellers gain better insight into

the obtainment of consent and proper handling of data.

The potential for RTB to be deemed in violation

of GDPR. In June 2019, the UK’s Information

Commissioner’s Office (ICO) issued a report called,

“Update Report into Adtech and Real-Time Bidding.”

That report contained a warning to the digital

advertising industry: It stated that RTB may be in

violation of GDPR, given the inability for parties to

properly police the passing of consent flags and

identify all parties using and sharing consumer data. If

parties cannot track this, they cannot entirely validate

consumer consent. The report stated that the industry

must review its RTB infrastructure within a six-month

window and come up with a solution for this problem,

or it may face regulatory fines. That window is up this

December, and the outcome of this review could have

significant effects on the use of cookies, device-level

identifiers and other sources to which anonymized

personal information is often appended. While the EU

would bear the brunt of the effects, it’s likely the US

would also see similar fallout.

■■

■■

The continued pursuit of direct ad server

integrations. Thanks to interest in unified auctions

and advancements in header and in-app bidding

(the latter of which is commonly referred to as app

bidding, in-app header bidding or advanced bidding),

many interviewed for this report noted that more

demand-side platforms are pursuing direct ad server

integrations—and side-stepping the use of supply-side

platforms (SSPs) in the process. To some extent, this

is a continuation of supply-path-optimization efforts,

but it’s also a step that will inevitably place greater

emphasis on having PMPs and other private deal

markers within the ad server to maintain priority.

Lack of a universal identifier. Digital marketers have

yearned for a universal identifier—a way to identify

individuals across all devices and domains—for years.

But focus on this topic is heightened thanks to the

deterioration of third-party tracking capabilities and

acknowledging that one way to keep the open web

competing against the triopoly for digital ad dollars is to

offer comparable measurement and targeting options.

With companies such as LiveRamp, The Trade Desk and

the IAB Tech Lab pursuing their own identifiers and ID

consortia, there appears to be more momentum on this

front than ever before. But it’s optimistic to assume the

industry can wholly settle on one, or a few, solutions to

power their open web identity efforts within the next

12 months. In the interim, expect continued identity

challenges beyond the walled gardens.

■■

The fact that the most high-growth programmatic

formats and channels—connected TV, OTT and

audio—largely avoid the open markets. Buyers and

sellers looking to bring automation to their premium

video and audio inventory are doing so in ways more

comparable to how these formats and channels have

historically been purchased—via direct deals like PMPs

and guarantees.

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12


PRIVATE MARKETPLACE AD SPENDING

Next year, for the first time, ad spending on PMPs will

surpass open exchanges. PMP ad spending will enjoy

double-digit growth throughout the forecast period, and

PMPs will comprise a growing portion of total RTB ad

dollars, but PMP’s share of the broader programmatic

space will inevitably decline at the expense of

programmatic direct’s continued expansion.

Many of the factors limiting open market investment are

driving dollars into PMPs, which buyers and sellers deem

safer and more compatible with their long-term strategies.

Also driving investment in PMPs over the next 24

months are:

Improved capabilities for discovering, planning and

transacting in PMPs. Experts interviewed

for this report noted that the past 12 months have

brought greater sophistication and advancement to

PMP inventory discovery and campaign planning and

management tools. These tools are making PMP setup

and maintenance less cumbersome and labor intensive.

They also noted these advancements are making it

easier to transact against key performance indicators

(KPIs) and campaign metrics beyond CPMs.

Continued emphasis on first- and second-party

data. For the past couple of years, buyers and sellers

have acknowledged the importance of first- and secondparty

data (second-party data is first-party data owned

by a publisher, platform or other partner) for building

stronger identity graphs and sharing unique audience

insights. But with the fate of third-party tracking and

data on the line, focus has intensified. PMPs continue

to prove a primary real-time means

of bringing first-party data into a campaign or gaining

access to premium audience insights selectively shared

by publishers. “As the cookie starts to go away and the

shelf life is diminished, third-party data won’t be able to

be used in as many places,” said Ryan Fleisch, head of

product marketing for Adobe Advertising Cloud. “We’re

seeing clients really care about making the most of

every impression that we’re serving because in certain

cases, we might not have the same luxury of scale in

the next 12 to 24 months that we’ve had in the past.”

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13


KEY TAKEAWAYS

Programmatic is now the norm for buying and

selling digital display ads. While select advertisers and

sellers may still be transitioning to programmatic across

areas like in-app, audio, connected TV and

OTT, the tide is continuing to carry buyers and sellers

toward automation.

RTB continues to play an important role in

programmatic, but privacy regulations and other

changes to customer data use and targeting

practices may force change in the next 24 months.

As was the case with GDPR, uncertainty for regulatory

compliance and consent practices will drive greater

activity in PMPs, guarantees and walled-garden

buys, and we expect to see similar effects in 2020

and beyond.

Mike Caprio

Divisional President

Zeta Global

Interviewed August 14, 2019

Denise Colella

Senior Vice President,

Advanced Advertising Products and Strategy

NBCUniversal

Interviewed August 13, 2019

Geisla de Souza

Head of Display EMEA and APAC

and Paid Media Operations

Jellyfish

Interviewed August 12, 2019

Kevin Fennelley

Senior Director, Device Graph and TV Products

dataxu

Interviewed August 28, 2019

EMARKETER INTERVIEWS

Greg Anderson

Managing Director

Xaxis

Interviewed August 12, 2019

Ellie Bamford

Vice President, Media

R/GA

Interviewed August 28, 2019

Youssef Ben-Youssef

Head of Ad Platform

Roku

Interviewed August 12, 2019

Amanda Betsold

Vice President, Head of Programmatic

iCrossing

Interviewed August 6, 2019

Glenn Fishback

Chief Revenue Officer

Smaato

Interviewed August 12, 2019

Ryan Fleisch

Head of Product Marketing,

Adobe Advertising Cloud

Adobe

Interviewed August 14, 2019

Doug Fleming

Head of Advanced TV

Hulu

Interviewed August 12, 2019

Anne Frisbie

Senior Vice President,

Global Brand and Programmatic

InMobi

Interviewed August 28, 2019

Marc Grabowski

Executive Vice President, Global Supply

Criteo

Interviewed August 16, 2019

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14


Jeff Hirsch

CMO and Head of US Publisher Development

PubMatic

Interviewed August 6, 2019

James Malins

Senior Vice President, Programmatic

Amobee

Interviewed August 15, 2019

Julien Hirth

Founder

Scibids

Interviewed August 15, 2019

Amanda Martin

Director, Enterprise Partnerships

Goodway Group

Interviewed August 8, 2019

Jeremy Hlavacek

Head of Revenue

Watson Advertising

Interviewed August 7, 2019

Tahira McGhee

Group Director, Media Management

R/GA

Interviewed August 28, 2019

Kevin Hunt

Senior Vice President, Global Marketing

SpotX

Interviewed August 14, 2019

Ramsey McGrory

Chief Revenue Officer

MediaOcean

Interviewed August 8, 2019

Aleksandra Injac

US Programmatic Practice Lead

Mindshare

Interviewed August 27, 2019

Hiten Mistry

Senior Vice President, Product Management

Centro

Interviewed August 8, 2019

Anthony Katsur

Senior Vice President, Strategy and Operations

Nexstar Digital

Interviewed August 16, 2019

Jordan Mitchell

Senior Vice President, IAB Tech Lab

Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)

Interviewed August 13, 2019

Walter Knapp

CEO

Sovrn

Interviewed August 8, 2019

David Kohl

President, CEO

TrustX

Interviewed August 13, 2019

Harry Kratel

Vice President, Global Marketing

Smaato

Interviewed August 12, 2019

James Lawson

CEO, Board Member

AdTheorent, Inc.

Interviewed August 16, 2019

Interviewed August 14, 2019

Liane Nadeau

Vice President and Group Director,

Head of Programmatic

Digitas North America

Ari Paparo

CEO

Beeswax

Interviewed August 2, 2019

Matt Prohaska

CEO, Principal

Prohaska Consulting

Interviewed August 14, 2019

Michael Provenzano

Co-Founder, CEO

Vistar Media

Interviewed August 2, 2019

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15


Jon Schulz

CMO

Viant

Interviewed August 28, 2019

Nimrod Zuta

Vice President, Product

ironSource

Interviewed October 28, 2019

Mario Schiappacasse

Head of Programmatic Media

Jellyfish

Interviewed August 12, 2019

Jude O’Connor

General Manager, Brand, North America

AdColony

Interviewed August 13, 2019

Justin Silberman

Vice President, Product

Dailymotion

Interviewed August 7, 2019

Philip Smolin

Chief Strategy Officer

Amobee

Interviewed August 15, 2019

Scott Symonds

Managing Director

AKQA

Interviewed August 7, 2019

Todd Tran

Global Senior Vice President, Programmatic

Teads

Interviewed August 16, 2019

Jackie Vanover

Vice President, DSP

MediaMath

Interviewed August 15, 2019

Dean Vegliante

President

Netmining

Interviewed August 13, 2019

READ NEXT

Amazon Advertising 2019: Growth and Performance

Are Strong at the No. 3 US Digital Ad Seller

Digital Display Ad Pricing StatPack: Banner, Video,

Mobile and Native CPMs, and Pricing Trends to Watch

for in 2019

Digital Marketing in Today’s Privacy-Conscious World:

What Companies Need to Know About GDPR, CCPA

and Other Industry Changes in the Next 12 Months

US Programmatic Ad Spending Forecast 2019: Nearly

Half of Programmatic Ad Dollars Now Go to Video

US Programmatic Fees 2019: Concerns about the ‘Ad

Tech Tax’ and Transparency Haven’t Gone Away.

US Subscription Video Landscape 2019: Bracing for an

Onslaught of New Services

Video Ads in Social Media 2019: Creators Are in

Demand on Social Properties. Here’s Why—and What

It Means for YouTube

Digital Ad Fraud 2019: Mobile and Video Remain

Riskiest Channels

EDITORIAL AND

PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS

Terri Walter

Chief Growth Officer

TrustX

Interviewed August 13, 2019

Manu Warikoo

Chief Product Officer

MediaOcean

Interviewed August 8, 2019

Anam Baig

Joanne DiCamillo

Donte Gibson

Katie Hamblin

Dana Hill

Erika Huber

Ann Marie Kerwin

Stephanie Meyer

Heather Price

Magenta Ranero

Amanda Silvestri

Senior Editor

Senior Production Artist

Chart Editor

Chart Editorial Manager

Director of Production

Copy Editor

Executive Editor, Content Strategy

Senior Production Artist

Deputy Editor

Senior Chart Editor

Senior Copy Editor

US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPENDING PRESENTED BY ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16


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