And the winners remain China and India

And the winners remain
CHINA and INDIA
The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
Based on data from the International Monetary Fund.
Includes estimates for 2020 and 2021
Hans Peter Bech
TBK PUBLISHING

© Hans Peter Bech, May 2020
Second edition (accounting for the impact of the Covid-19 on the global economy).
Unless otherwise indicated, Hans Peter Bech copyrights all materials on these pages. All rights
reserved. No part of these pages, either text or images may be used for any purpose other than
personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission,
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal
use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.
The business model framework is distributed under a Creative Commons license from Strategyzer
AG and can be used without any restrictions for modelling businesses.
Published by TBK Publishing® (a division of TBK Consult ApS), CVR: DK27402917
www.tbkconsult.com/publishing
ISBN: 978-87-93116-43-6
TBK-WIPA-036

The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
Table of contents:
Table of Contents 3
Target audience 4
Abstract 4
Author 4
Acknowledgements 4
The IMF predictions 5
The Corona crisis and the recession 6
How long will the Corona-restrictions last? 6
How deep will the recession be? 7
How long will the recession last? 7
The post-Covid-19 world 8
China is now the largest market for IT products and services 9
Grow fast or die slow 9
How? 10
Where? 11
Table 1: The BECH Index for the Major Markets 2014-21 11
The Top 25 Markets 12
Table 2: Top 25 Information Technology Countries in the World 13
Table 3: The BECH Index for the Americas 2014-21 14
Table 4: The BECH Index for The European Union 2014-21 15
Table 5: The BECH Index for The Rest of Europe 2014-21 16
Table 6: The BECH Index for The Middle East 2014-21 17
Table 7: The BECH Index for Africa 2014-21 17
Table 8: The BECH Index for Asia Pacific 2014-21 19
The BECH Index 20
About the author 21
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Targeted audience
The target audience for this whitepaper is the board of directors, the
CEOs and the sales and marketing executives of B2B information technology
companies with ambitions for global market coverage.
Abstract
This whitepaper presents an estimation of the relative demand capacity
for B2B information technology and related services worldwide.
This estimation is called “The BECH Index.”
TBK Consult have previously calculated the BECH Index annually
based on data published by The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
The current 2020 Corona report is based on data provided by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1 and includes estimates for 2020
and 2021.
In April 2020 IMF published their first assessment of the impact on
the global economy of the Covid-19 lockdowns across the world.
They expected the recession to result in a three per cent contraction
of the economy in 2020 followed by fast recovery with 5.8 per cent
growth in 2021.
This report has simulated the distribution of global demand based
on the IMF data including the estimates for 2020 and 2021. It reconfirms
the conclusion from the previous reports, only the trend has
been accelerated. This means that China, India and what I call Rest of
Asia (which excludes Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and
Taiwan) are growing faster than any other countries.
For this report I have also moved the UK out of the EU. For comparison
reasons this has been done for all years.
Author
Hans Peter Bech, M.Sc. (econ.)
Acknowledgements
Thank you to Manuel Cunha for pointing out mistakes in our regional
classification. The mistakes have been corrected retrospectively for
all the years in this report.
Data collection and proof reading: Emma Crabtree, ecr@tbkconsult.com
Design and lay-out: Jelena Galkina, info@kompot.ee
_____________________________________________________
1
Source: https://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
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The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
The IMF predictions
The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the agenda for most businesses in all countries and it is
uncertain what the world will look like on the other side.
This whitepaper is based on the IMF national accounting data and estimates for the period 2014 to
2021 included in the April version of their World Economic Outlook 2 .
The IMF expects a short but
deep contraction on the global
economy in 2020. However, as
you look through the estimates
for the various countries, you will
notice an uneven spread. The
bottom line is that the long-term
trend predicted in my previous
whitepapers have been accelerated.
Industrial demand is moving
east, and the Corona crisis will
leave China and India stronger
than before.
“Because the economic fallout
is acute in specific sectors,
policymakers will need to implement
substantial targeted fiscal,
monetary, and financial market
measures to support affected
households and businesses
domestically. Internationally,
strong multilateral cooperation
is essential to overcome the effects
of the pandemic, including
help for financially constrained
countries facing twin health and
funding shocks, and for channelling
aid to countries with weak
health care systems.”
_____________________________________________________
2
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
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The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
The Corona crisis and the recession
No crisis lasts forever. May that give you some hope and peace of mind.
There is a world on the other side, and it will offer new opportunities if you read it right. However,
before reaching the other side you have to survive the passage. And “reading it right” requires that
you have time to think, prepare and test.
How long will the Corona-restrictions last?
I’m no epidemiologist, but according to the experts, most countries are beyond the point where
you can contain the virus and make it go away. The strategy we are pursuing in Northern Europe is
aimed at having us follow the blue curve. Many of us will get the virus, but not all of us will get it at
the same time and, hopefully, we can spare most of those for whom the consequences may be fatal.
Pursuing the blue strategy, the spread of Covid-19 will be controllable 4-6 weeks after you have
effectively shut down society. The longer you wait and the softer you do it, the longer it takes to
recover and the higher the price you pay in terms of casualties and short falls in the economy.
Based on my research for this article, I expect most of Northern Europe to follow the same paths
while Southern Europe, the UK and the USA will see different developments.
Northern Europe will re-start again by the beginning of May. By then there will still be restrictions, but
the economy will gradually open up. However, nothing will return to normal for a while. International
travel will remain restricted, people will still be restrained from gathering in large crowds, congestions
throughout rush-hours must be avoided, remote working and virtual meetings will continue and the
elderly and people with pre-conditions will have to stay at home.
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How deep will the recession be?
I am an economist, but predicting the impact
of Covid-19 on the economy is not a simple
mathematical exercise. We are way beyond the
borders of what any macro-economic model can
simulate. As the global economy was well balanced
before Covid-19 took us down, IMF predicts that
we will take a draconian dive, but that it will only be
temporary.
The dive comes from hitting supply and demand
hard at the same time. Nevertheless, the depth
of the recession will vary substantially across
industries. While government and much of the
logistics and FMCG-industries are unaffected and
e-commerce is booming, other parts of retail, the
travel and experience industry (entertainment,
tourism and hospitality) have come to a complete
halt. Across the board we might experience a thirty
per cent contraction of the economy from March to
August. On a full-year basis, some predictions say
that the contraction may reach ten per cent.
However, these are not numbers any of us can use for anything. The situation of each individual
company varies greatly and maybe your customer base is deviating from the average?
Some companies have to lay-off people and stop all expenses and investments. Some will only
survive if they are bailed out by their government. Some will not survive.
But other companies are busier due to the Corona-situation. They are well consolidated and liquid or
fit the rescue packages offered by the governments. They can afford to pay their bills, keep their key
employees and use the time to do some housekeeping (such as considering better business models
and processes). You will have to check on your customers and the prospects in the pipeline to find
out how much it will affect you. Despite the grave situation, there will still be work to do in many
companies.
How long will the recession last?
Apart from industry variations, most restrictions will have been lifted by late autumn.
The Corona-recession is not caused by systemic unbalances in the global economy, which is why
I am fairly optimistic that we will recover fast. The swift recovery comes from the gigantic rescue
packages currently offered by our governments and from consumers and companies going out of
their way to help each other.
What your world looks like right now and until the situation normalises depends entirely on your
solidity and your customers. Before Covid-19, there was a shortage of skilled IT resources and that
will also be the case afterwards. Hold on to your people and urge your customers to do the same. Be
flexible with payments if you can. Keep the projects running.
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I am convinced that many have already switched to working remotely and running virtual meetings
and workshops. Refine these working and collaboration skills because they will become hot assets
when the storm is over.
The post-Covid-19 world
It will be a different world on the other side of the Corona-crisis.
Not everything will change, but economically
and politically we will see things from a different perspective.
The Corona-crisis has once more demonstrated and
highlighted how interdependent the world has become.
A bat meets a pangolin and a virus jumps in China.
Soon the European auto industry comes to a halt,
which causes layoffs in other countries. The impact
of government restrictions ripples through the world
economy at lightning speed.
All nations will have paid an extremely high price for
saving as many lives as possible and for relieving the
pressure on their healthcare systems, avoiding the impact
of collateral damage (maintaining the ability to
also help people in urgent need due to non-corona related
issues). Governments will have invested gigantic
amounts of money in keeping their economies afloat.
As we return to normality, they will open their fiscal
policy toolboxes and invest further in accelerating the
surge out of the recession.
These activities will happen at the same time all over the world and will pull the economy out of
recession faster than we have ever seen before. By the beginning of 2021, we will all be busy again
and the Corona-crisis will become a receding memory. However, I am convinced that we will have
changed our values, priorities and some behaviours, too.
Voices have spoken about the need for more autarky, but that will not happen.
The global division of labour, the opening of international markets and the improvement in global
logistics have been the main contributors to economic growth and wealth for all of us. In addition,
the solution to challenges (climate, poverty and wars) the world is facing must be of a global nature.
If anything, the Corona-crisis will stimulate further global collaboration, growth and competition.
Not the opposite.
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The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
China is now the largest market for IT products and
services
According to the IMF data and my calculations, China became the largest IT-market in the world in
2018. With a share of then 17.19 per cent China surpassed the USA, which represented 17.01 per cent
of global demand. However, adding Canada, North America still represented 18.45 per cent of the total
market. In 2021 we expect China, with 19.22 per cent, to grow enough to surpass North America, with
17.72 per cent in total. Also, India will come out stronger on the other side with a share of 8.02 per cent
of global demand in 2021.
Grow fast or die slow
The information technology industry is by
nature a global industry. The Corona-crisis
will not change that.
In this industry we are blessed with low cost
of entry and simple supply chains. International
growth therefore comes much easier
than in most other industries.
Embarking on the global growth journey is also a necessity. The combination of simple supply chains,
economy of scale advantages and “crossing the chasm” 3 characteristics make the information technology
industry a “winner takes all” game. Information technology companies either grow fast or die
slowly. 4
The market leader enjoys enormous advantages over number two, three and so on. Chances are that
number one will continue to increase her market share while the followers will lose out. It’s not only the
good old rule that the army with the most soldiers normally wins the battle. The information technology
industry is governed by some very specific dynamics that are best understood by studying The
Law of Diffusion of Innovation 5 and the Crossing the Chasm theory.
On the other side of the Corona-crisis the threshold for doing business virtually will have been moved
considerably. More companies are prepared to make more purchase decisions without having to meet
face-to-face with their suppliers. This will also drive international transaction cost down and open new
markets for the software industry.
Because of the nature of information technology products, the market still prefers buying from the
market leader. The first to reach the tipping point in a market gets caught by the tornado and suddenly
revenue generation isn’t the primary concern anymore. Demand will drive revenue and fulfilment
becomes the primary challenge.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
3
See Crossing the Chasm, 3rd Edition: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers by
Geoffrey A. Moore.
4
Grow fast or die slow April 2014 by Eric Kutcher, Olivia Nottebohm and Kara Sprague, McKinsey&Company
5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
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How?
As information technology companies prepare
for global growth the first question to
answer is “how?”
We discuss these issues in the first three
whitepapers in this series named Entering
a Foreign Market in the Information
Technology Industry6 and in my upcoming
book Going Global on a Shoestring 7 .
We used to recommend that B2B information
technology companies verify the viability
of their business models in their domestic
market first. When growing revenue
has been proven profitable, predictable
and scalable then it is time to conquer foreign
markets.
With the opportunity of running virtual business models taking advantage of the decrease in international
transaction costs, we will be revising this recommendation.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
6
These whitepapers are available for download from www.tbkconsult.com
7
https://tbkconsult.com/product/the-book-going-global-on-a-shoestring/
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The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
Where?
A frequent question asked before jumping to foreign markets is,
“Where we should go next?”
If you run a virtual business model based on inbound lead generation then this question may not be
so relevant anymore. As long as you can operate in English you will have access to over one billion
consumers representing more than 40 per cent of global demand.
If using local language and having “feet on the ground” is crucial to your go-to-market approach,
then the size of the individual country or region plays a role.
Table 1: The BECH Index for the Major Markets 2014-21 8
Region 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E
North America 20.82 20.77 18.82 18.62 18.45 18.37 17.87 17.72
Latin America 8.33 8.12 7.69 7.47 7.42 7.29 7.15 6.95
Americas 29.15 28.89 26.51 26.09 25.87 25.66 25.02 24.67
The European Union 15.91 15.66 15.13 15.01 14.74 14.53 14.05 13.94
Rest of Europe 9.74 9.54 9.11 9.00 8.86 8.73 8.52 8.38
Middle East 4.93 4.88 5.54 5.42 5.24 5.11 5.13 5.03
Africa 3.88 3.88 3.77 3.73 3.68 3.67 3.66 3.63
EMEA 34.47 33.96 33.56 33.17 32.51 32.03 31.36 30.97
Australia/NZ 1.24 1.23 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.13 1.14
Japan 4.98 4.89 4.60 4.48 4.32 4.23 4.15 4.05
China 13.79 14.31 16.19 16.77 17.19 17.76 18.58 19.22
South Korea 1.60 1.59 1.66 1.64 1.62 1.61 1.64 1.61
Taiwan 0.96 0.94 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93
India 5.49 5.76 6.62 6.84 7.38 7.48 7.88 8.02
Rest of Asia 8.32 8.42 8.70 8.86 8.97 9.11 9.30 9.40
Asia 36.38 37.15 39.93 40.74 41.61 42.30 43.62 44.35
The World 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
_______________________________________________________________________________________
8
Please note that the numbers in this white paper are due to the application of a new algorithm which will differ
from BECH Index whitepapers from before 2016.
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The IMF data series for 2014 to 2021 includes 191 countries of which some of the bigger countries
must be considered as several markets. Talking about the US as one market when you haven’t
won the first customer or independent channel partner there yet may seem overly self-confident.
For most information technology companies, the US is at least 50 geographical markets, Germany
is 14 markets (Bundesländer), France is at least 4 markets, the UK is 4 markets, the Nordics are 4
markets and so on.
As can be seen from Table 1, world demand continues moving east. The Americas have
experienced a 15 per cent decline in the period 2014-2021.
The demand from Central and South America drops again in 2021 and the decline in demand from
North America results in a net loss of 1.39 per cent for the area.
The European Union (excluding the UK) has lost 12.4 per cent of global demand in the same
period. Russia, the sixth biggest market, has lost 15.3 per cent since 2014.
North America and Europe continue to be very interesting areas with some of the biggest markets
in the world and because of increasing labour costs and public expenditure there is a growing
need for information analytics, process and cost optimisation information technology-based
solutions.
According to the IMF data the Middle East’s share of global demand has been quite stable. Future
growth in the Middle East still requires a restructuring away from the dependency on oil and gas
and a general liberation of the economy. I remain sceptical that they will be successful with such a
transformation and predict a decrease in the region.
Despite the Corona-crisis China is expected to continue its growth and gain a 3.46 per cent
increase in its global market share from 2020 to 2021.
For 2021 the Asia Pacific region’s share of global demand increased 1.68 per cent. The most
prominent growth area next to China is India showing a 45.9 per cent increase in the period 2014-
2021.
The Top 25 Markets
These 25 countries make up more than 80% of world demand for information technology products
and services with 166 countries sharing the remaining 20%. This doesn’t mean that these 25
markets are the most attractive as issues other than size may play a more important role. The
five countries USA, China, India, Japan and Germany make up over half of world demand for
information technology.
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Table 2: Top 25 Information Technology Countries in the World
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share 2021 Country Accumulated
2 1 1 1 1 19.22% China
1 2 2 2 2 16.36% USA
3 3 3 3 3 8.02% India
4 4 4 4 4 4.05% Japan
5 5 5 5 5 3.16% Germany
6 6 6 6 6 2.96% Russia
7 7 7 7 7 2.48% Brazil
10 10 10 9 8 2.43% Indonesia
8 8 8 8 9 2.38% UK
9 9 9 10 10 2.28% France
12 11 11 11 11 1.77% Mexico
11 12 12 12 12 1.74% Italy
14 14 14 13 13 1.61% South Korea
13 13 13 14 14 1.60% Turkey
15 15 15 15 15 1.38% Spain
16 16 16 16 16 1.36% Canada
17 17 17 17 17 1.25% Saudi Arabia
19 19 18 18 18 0.99% Australia
18 18 19 19 19 0.94% Iran
23 22 22 20 20 0.93% Egypt
20 20 20 21 21 0.93% Taiwan
21 21 21 22 22 0.89% Thailand
22 23 23 23 23 0.86% Poland
24 24 25 24 24 0.76% Nigeria
25 25 N/A 25 25 0.75% Pakistan
50.80%
63.33%
71.42%
76.89%
81.08%
Apart from Indonesia taking the position as the world’s number eight and the UK moving to
place 9, no further changes are expected. None of the other countries have changed their
position from 2020 to 2021.
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Table 3: The BECH Index for the Americas 2014-21
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
USA 19.24% 19.22% 17.35% 17.16% 17.01% 16.95% 16.49% 16.36%
Canada 1.58% 1.55% 1.48% 1.46% 1.44% 1.42% 1.38% 1.36%
North America 20.82% 20.77% 18.82% 18.62% 18.45% 18.37% 17.87% 17.72%
Antigua and Barbuda 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Argentina 0.75% 0.75% 0.69% 0.70% 0.66% 0.63% 0.61% 0.60%
Aruba 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Bahamas 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Belize 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Bolivia 0.05% 0.05% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06%
Brazil 3.36% 3.15% 2.77% 2.71% 2.64% 2.60% 2.54% 2.48%
Chile 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.36% 0.36% 0.35% 0.35% 0.28%
Colombia 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.55% 0.54%
Costa Rica 0.08% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07%
Dominica 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Dominican Republic 0.12% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14%
Ecuador 0.16% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13%
El Salvador 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%
Grenada 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Guatemala 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.10% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11%
Guyana 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Honduras 0.03% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Jamaica 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Mexico 1.97% 1.98% 1.98% 1.88% 1.93% 1.88% 1.81% 1.77%
Nicaragua 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Panama 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09%
Paraguay 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06%
Peru 0.32% 0.32% 0.33% 0.30% 0.33% 0.33% 0.32% 0.32%
Puerto Rico 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.08% 0.08%
Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Saint Lucia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Suriname 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Uruguay 0.07% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06%
South America 8.33% 8.12% 7.69% 7.47% 7.42% 7.29% 7.15% 6.95%
Americas 29.15% 28.89% 26.51% 26.09% 25.87% 25.66% 25.02% 24.67%
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Table 4: The BECH Index for The European Union 2014-21
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Austria 0.39% 0.38% 0.37% 0.37% 0.36% 0.36% 0.34% 0.34%
Belgium 0.52% 0.51% 0.47% 0.46% 0.45% 0.45% 0.43% 0.43%
Bulgaria 0.13% 0.13% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.01% 0.12% 0.12%
Czech Republic 0.28% 0.28% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.28% 0.29%
Denmark 0.27% 0.27% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.24% 0.24%
Estonia 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03%
Finland 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.21% 0.20% 0.20% 0.19% 0.17%
France 2.84% 2.79% 2.52% 2.49% 2.43% 2.40% 2.30% 2.28%
Germany 3.62% 3.58% 3.50% 3.45% 3.36% 3.29% 3.17% 3.16%
Greece 0.32% 0.31% 0.27% 0.26% 0.25% 0.25% 0.23% 0.23%
Hungary 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24%
Iceland 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01%
Ireland 0.20% 0.24% 0.26% 0.28% 0.29% 0.29% 0.28% 0.29%
Italy 2.22% 2.17% 2.01% 1.97% 1.92% 1.87% 1.76% 1.74%
Latvia 0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04%
Lithuania 0.08% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07%
Luxemburg 0.06% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06%
Netherlands 0.81% 0.80% 0.75% 0.74% 0.73% 0.79% 0.76% 0.74%
Poland 0.78% 0.79% 0.86% 0.90% 0.87% 0.89% 0.87% 0.86%
Portugal 0.30% 0.29% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 0.25% 0.25%
Romania 0.32% 0.17% 0.37% 0.38% 0.38% 0.39% 0.38% 0.38%
Slovakia 0.14% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13%
Slovenia 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05%
Spain 1.61% 1.62% 1.52% 1.50% 1.48% 1.47% 1.39% 1.38%
Sweden 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.42% 0.41% 0.39% 0.39%
EU 15.91% 15.66% 15.13% 15.01% 14.74% 14.53% 14.05% 13.94%
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Table 5: The BECH Index for The Rest of Europe 2014-21
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Albania 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.03%
Belarus 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.12% 0.12%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03%
Croatia 0.09% 0.09% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08%
Cyprus. Republic 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Georgia 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Kosovo 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Macedonia 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Malta 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Moldova 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Montenegro 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Norway 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.30% 0.29% 0.28% 0.28%
Russia 3.50% 3.33% 3.24% 3.18% 3.15% 3.09% 3.04% 2.96%
San Marino 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Serbia 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08%
Switzerland 0.49% 0.48% 0.45% 0.44% 0.44% 0.43% 0.42% 0.41%
Turkey 1.66% 1.71% 1.68% 1.69% 1.67% 1.63% 1.61% 1.60%
UK 2.93% 2.91% 2.65% 2.60% 2.52% 2.49% 2.41% 2.38%
Ukraine 0.33% 0.29% 0.28% 0.27% 0.28% 0.28% 0.26% 0.26%
Rest of Europe 9.74% 9.54% 9.11% 9.00% 8.86% 8.73% 8.52% 8.38%
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Table 6: The BECH Index for The Middle East 2014-21
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Bahrain 0.05% 0.05% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
Egypt 0.81% 0.82% 0.86% 0.88% 0.88% 0.91% 0.96% 0.93%
Iran 1.07% 1.02% 1.17% 1.20% 1.10% 0.99% 0.96% 0.94%
Iraq 0.38% 0.38% 0.50% 0.49% 0.44% 0.45% 0.44% 0.45%
Israel 0.27% 0.27% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.27% 0.26% 0.26%
Jordan 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07%
Kuwait 0.17% 0.17% 0.22% 0.20% 0.20% 0.19% 0.20% 0.19%
Oman 0.11% 0.11% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13%
Qatar 0.20% 0.20% 0.25% 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23%
Saudi Arabia 1.23% 1.24% 1.40% 1.32% 1.30% 1.27% 1.29% 1.25%
U.A.E. 0.46% 0.47% 0.54% 0.50% 0.49% 0.49% 0.49% 0.48%
Yemen 0.10% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
Middle East 4.93% 4.88% 5.54% 5.42% 5.24% 5.11% 5.13% 5.03%
Table 7: The BECH Index for Africa 2014-21
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Algeria 0.41% 0.42% 0.45% 0.44% 0.42% 0.41% 0.41% 0.41%
Angola 0.10% 0.09% 0.12% 0.12% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11%
Benin 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03%
Botswana 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Burkina Faso 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Burundi 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cameroon 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07%
Cape Verde 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Central African Republic 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Chad 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Congo. Republic of the 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Cote d'ivoire 0.09% 0.10% 0.10% 0.09% 0.10% 0.10% 0.11% 0.11%
Dem. Rep of the Congo 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
Djibouti 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
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Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Eq. Guinea 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Eritrea 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Eswatini 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Ethiopia 0.11% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.13% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14%
Gabon 0.02% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Gambia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ghana 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.14% 0.14%
Guin. Bissau 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Guinea 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kenya 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.10% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.12%
Lesotho 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Liberia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Libya 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.02% 0.04%
Malawi 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Mali 0.02% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Mauritania 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Morocco 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.21%
Mozambique 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Namibia 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Niger 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Nigeria 0.95% 0.95% 0.84% 0.82% 0.78% 0.78% 0.78% 0.76%
Rwanda 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Sao Tome and Principe 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Senegal 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.05% 0.05%
Sierra Leone 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Somalia 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
South Africa 0.69% 0.68% 0.64% 0.62% 0.60% 0.59% 0.57% 0.57%
South Sudan 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Sudan 0.13% 0.13% 0.12% 0.12% 0.11% 0.11% 0.10% 0.09%
Tanzania 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.11% 0.11% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12%
Togo 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Tunisia 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
Uganda 0.07% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08%
Zambia 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
Zimbabwe 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Africa 3.88% 3.88% 3.77% 3.73% 3.68% 3.67% 3.66% 3.63%
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Table 8: The BECH Index for Asia Pacific 2014-21
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Australia 1.08% 1.07% 1.03% 1.03% 1.02% 1.02% 0.98% 0.99%
New Zealand 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.15% 0.15%
Australia/NZ 1.24% 1.23% 1.19% 1.19% 1.18% 1.17% 1.13% 1.14%
Japan 4.98% 4.89% 4.60% 4.48% 4.32% 4.23% 4.15% 4.05%
China 13.79% 14.31% 16.19% 16.77% 17.19% 17.76% 18.58% 19.22%
Korea. South 1.60% 1.59% 1.66% 1.64% 1.62% 1.61% 1.64% 1.61%
Taiwan 0.96% 0.94% 0.97% 0.96% 0.95% 0.95% 0.94% 0.93%
India 5.49% 5.76% 6.62% 6.84% 7.38% 7.48% 7.88% 8.02%
The Big Countries 26.82% 27.50% 30.04% 30.69% 31.46% 32.02% 33.19% 33.82%
Afghanistan 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
Armenia 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Azerbaijan 0.10% 0.09% 0.12% 0.12% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11%
Bangladesh 0.46% 0.48% 0.49% 0.50% 0.53% 0.55% 0.58% 0.60%
Bhutan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Brunei 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Burma 0.18% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.20% 0.21% 0.22%
Cambodia 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%
Comoros 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
East Timor 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Fiji 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Haiti 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Hong Kong 0.50% 0.50% 0.43% 0.43% 0.42% 0.41% 0.40% 0.40%
Indonesia 1.90% 1.94% 2.18% 2.20% 2.23% 2.28% 2.37% 2.43%
Kazakhstan 0.39% 0.38% 0.36% 0.37% 0.37% 0.38% 0.38% 0.38%
Kiribati 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kyrgyzstan 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Laos 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.04% 0.04%
Macau 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.07% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.06%
Madagascar 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Malaysia 0.63% 0.64% 0.68% 0.70% 0.70% 0.71% 0.72% 0.74%
Maldives 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Marshall Islands 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
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Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mauritius 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Micronesia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Mongolia 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Nauru 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nepal 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06% 0.06%
Pakistan 0.77% 0.78% 0.73% 0.74% 0.76% 0.76% 0.78% 0.75%
Palau 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Papua New Guinea 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Philippines 0.60% 0.62% 0.65% 0.66% 0.68% 0.70% 0.73% 0.74%
Samoa 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Seychelles 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Singapore 0.48% 0.48% 0.46% 0.47% 0.47% 0.46% 0.46% 0.45%
Solomon Islands 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sri Lanka 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.22% 0.21%
Tajikistan 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Thailand 0.88% 0.88% 0.91% 0.92% 0.92% 0.92% 0.89% 0.89%
Tonga 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Trinidad and
Tobago
0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
Turkmenistan 0.05% 0.05% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08%
Tuvalu 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Uzbekistan 0.16% 0.17% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.19% 0.20% 0.20%
Vanuatu 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Vietnam 0.47% 0.48% 0.54% 0.59% 0.61% 0.63% 0.67% 0.68%
Asia Pacific 8.32% 8.42% 8.70% 8.86% 8.97% 9.11% 9.30% 9.40%
Asia Pacific Total 36.38% 37.15% 39.93% 40.74% 41.61% 42.30% 43.62% 44.35%
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The BECH Index
We changed the algorithm behind the BECH Index from 2016 onwards. We still use the Gross Domestic
Product 9 (GDP) Purchasing Power Parity version that adjusts for the differences in the cost of
living and price levels across the world. For this report the GDP data has been downloaded from the
IMF website.
The BECH Index uses the GDP composition on agriculture, industry and services. We assume that
the demand for information technology will grow as a society moves from dependency on agriculture,
through being dominated by industry to mainly producing services. We recognise that the productivity
improvements that enable a society to survive and prosper with relatively small portions of
the GDP coming from agriculture and industry is enabled and supported by information technology
(and free international trade). However, we presume that the post-industrial activities are consuming
far more information technology products and services than the primary and secondary sectors 10 .
_______________________________________________________________________________________
9
The GDP is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced in a period (quarterly
or annually). Nominal GDP estimates are commonly used to determine the economic performance of a
whole country or region, and to make international comparisons.
10
The new BECH Index is based on the three-sector theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-sector_theory
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About the Author
Hans Peter Bech
Hans Peter Bech is an Amazon bestselling author. He is a frequent
blogger on how to make information technology companies global
market leaders and has written several books and numerous whitepapers
on business development in the IT industry. Hans Peter also
facilitates workshops for the TBK Academy® and is an advisor to
governments and multi-nationals. He holds a M.Sc. in macroeconomics
and political science from the University of Copenhagen.
Some of the passages in this whitepaper have previously been published
in an article I wrote for RamBase, the Norwegian ERP company 11 .
More about Hans Peter Bech
Other publications by the author
_______________________________________________________________________________________
11
https://rambase.com/news/erp-and-the-corona-crisis/
TBK-WIPA-036
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