2020-06 -- Real Estate of Northern Virginia - The Route 7 Corridor Report - June 2020 - Real Estate Market Trends - Michele Hudnall

realestateofnva

Real Estate of Northern Virginia - The Route 7 Corridor Report - June 2020

This is a monthly report of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market, specifically, The Route 7 Corridor of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. Weekly I post a video of current market conditions on Tuesday's and will post the monthly report by the 10th of each month as the numbers finalize in the MLS (Bright).

The numbers come from the MLS (Bright), opinions are my own. This represents the market up to 5 Bedrooms keeping the numbers sub $1.5M and out of the luxury, custom market.

REAL ESTATE of NORTHERN VIRGINIA

THE ROUTE 7 CORRIDOR REPORT

JUNE 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

+ 2.56%

VALUE

Median Sale Price

- 14.45%

SALES

Closed Sales

+ 5.26%

MARKETING TIME

Average Days on Market

- 62.15%

INVENTORY

EOM Inventory

- 42.86%

PACE

Months of Inventory

+ 8.99%

+ 0.07%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio

Source: Mortgage News Daily – 07.11.2020

• Historically LOW interest rates

• Mortgage Applications + 20% YTD

• New, Pending & Sold listings are rising

• Inventory is still a challenge

• Coming Soon & Off Market will increase

current Active homes by 25%

• Sales are closing in on 2019 levels with inventory being the biggest challenge with Detached homes and

Fairfax County Townhomes continuing as the strong leaders currently.

• Average DOM is rising slightly, serving as a first indicator that sellers may be taking advantage of their

current posture in the demand and supply equation. However, most current buyers have higher

expectations of home condition even with the low inventory levels.

The bubble is equalizing as the market heats up with the number of homes poised to come to market. Great

news for buyers and less positive news on rising home prices for sellers as predicted in an earlier video.


REAL ESTATE of NORTHERN VIRGINIA

THE ROUTE 7 CORRIDOR REPORT JUNE 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

+ 1.90%

VALUE

Median Sale Price

- 16.84%

SALES

Closed Sales

- 0.09%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

- 63.11%

INVENTORY

EOM Inventory

• 25% additional homes are poised to

come to market soon.

• Prices are stabilizing as New and Active

home inventory begins to rise.

• Sales are getting close to 2019 levels.

• 38% of Active Listings are 20 Days or

less on the market and 62% are > than

20 Days on market. This illustrates that

New Listings in good condition and

priced well are selling fast and anything

that’s been on market longer has

challenges and being overlooked.

• Inventory is still the challenge.

- 44.44%

PACE

Months of Inventory

+ 7.82%

- 0.09%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio


FAIRFAX | CONDOMINIUMS

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

The Route 7 Corridor Report | June 2020

+ 1.22%

VALUE

Average Sale Price

- 11.85%

SALES

Closed Sales

+ 3.39%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

+ 9.65%

+ 0.29%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio

• As we dive into the micro level, we start

to see our first decline in prices as sold

homes is on a significant rise.

• YTD Sales are down by 25% and YoY is

down by 12%.

• YTD Prices are down 5% and up 1% YoY

with a declining Month over Month

trend.

• At the low $300’s price point, the

condominium style living remains an

option for first time buyers and those

who seek to be closer to transportation

options closer to the city.

• Condominiums have seen the most

dramatic of swings of the lifestyles. This

is a trend to watch as home buyer

requirements have shifted because of

the disruption. High density city living is

not as appealing as it has been in the past.

• 2/3rds of the current Active Condominiums have been on the market for >20 Days. < 1/3rd are new listings.

• With Sales increasing and prices dropping, there are two things happening:

− Prices are stabilizing due to inventory on the market

− Requirements of buyers are shifting away from high density living – time will tell


FAIRFAX | TOWNHOMES

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

The Route 7 Corridor Report | June 2020

+ 0.93%

VALUE

Average Sale Price

- 16.57%

SALES

Closed Sales

- 1.59%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

+ 4.06%

00.00%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio

• Townhomes in the $500K with 3 Beds

dominate the Fairfax townhome market

with Alexandria, Centreville, Fairfax

and Reston. Centreville remains the

most affordable option.

• YTD Sales are down by 14% and YoY

Sales are down by 17% with a rising

price point.

• Prices are rising by 3% YTD and 1% YoY

indicating demand is exceeding supply

with this lifestyle option and Month

over Month increase.

• 40% have been on market for >20 Days

and 60% are within the Median Days on

Market of 10 Days and the Average of 37

Days.

• Demand continues to outpace supply

and homes in good condition and priced

well are moving quickly.


FAIRFAX | DETACHED HOMES

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

The Route 7 Corridor Report | June 2020

+ 2.81%

VALUE

Average Sale Price

- 18.41%

SALES

Closed Sales

- 1.87%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

+ 16.97%

- 0.01%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio

• 4 to 5 Beds under $800K is by far the

sweet spot with this lifestyle with the

leaders being Alexandria, Fairfax and

Falls Church in the $750K - $850K

range with Herndon and Springfield

being the affordability options in the sub

$700K range.

• YTD Sales are UP by 13% and YoY Sales

are down by 18% with a rising price

point.

• Prices are rising by 5% YTD and 3% YoY

indicating demand is exceeding supply

with this lifestyle option. The opposite

micro phenomenon of Condominiums is

occurring here with rising Month over

Month prices.

• 30% have been on market for 20

Days.

• Demand continues to outpace supply

and homes in good condition and priced

well are moving quickly.

The Detached home market is the

winner of the three lifestyles indicating the potential trend that the historically low interest rates are

driving along with the disruption as I discussed in a previous video.

There is a 25% increase in current inventory in Coming Soon and Off Market status ready to provide buyers

with more choice. Only time will tell if prices flatten / stabilize with growing inventory.


REAL ESTATE of NORTHERN VIRGINIA

THE ROUTE 7 CORRIDOR REPORT JUNE 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

+ 2.36%

VALUE

Median Sale Price

- 9.00%

SALES

Closed Sales

21.32%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

- 60.14%

INVENTORY

EOM Inventory

- 41.38%

PACE

Months of Inventory

+ 7.87%

- 0.02%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price

• 25% additional homes are poised to

come to market soon.

• Prices are rising and stabilizing as New

and Active home inventory begins to

rise. YTD prices are up 4% and 2% YoY.

• Sales are getting closer to 2019 levels

than Fairfax County at – 9%.

• Days on Market is rising by 21% YoY

which is a surprising leap. Knowing

inventory is low, this increase indicates

demand might not be as high keeping

prices from appreciating at a faster

pace.

• 42% of Active Listings are 20 Days or

less on the Market and 58% are > than 20

Days on Market. This illustrates that New

Listings in good condition and priced

well are selling fast and anything that

has been on Market longer has

challenges and is being overlooked.

• Inventory is still the challenge but

keeping prices slightly appreciating and stable.


LOUDOUN | CONDOMINIUMS

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

The Route 7 Corridor Report | June 2020

- 1.38%

VALUE

Average Sale Price

- 1.82%

SALES

Closed Sales

+ 58.61%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

- 9.02%

- 0.01%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio

• As we dive into the micro level, we start

to see our first decline in prices as sold

homes is on a significant rise.

• YTD sales are not down by much, 2% YoY,

and 4% YTD.

• Average Sale Prices are up 7% YTD and

down 1% YoY and down Month over

Month. Loudoun Condominiums are

faring better than Fairfax and I suspect

it is because many are townhome style

versus high density apartment style.

• At the low $300K price point, the

condominium style living remains an

option for first time buyers and those who seek to be closer to transportation options closer to the city.

• Condominiums have seen the most dramatic of swings of the lifestyles. This is a trend to watch as home

buyer requirements have shifted because of the disruption and historically low interest rates putting

townhomes and detached homes within reach of more first-time buyers.

• 56% of the current Active Condominiums have been on the market for 20 Days on

Market. Median Days on Market is 15 Days to an Average Days on Market of 36 Days. The Loudoun

Townhome lifestyle is more appealing than the high-density urban Condominiums of Fairfax County with

the sub $400K affordable price point.

• With Sales increasing and prices dropping, there are two things happening:

• Prices are stabilizing due to inventory on the market

• Requirements of buyers are shifting away from high density living – time will tell


LOUDOUN | TOWNHOMES

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

The Route 7 Corridor Report | June 2020

+ 3.40%

VALUE

Average Sale Price

- 5.69%

SALES

Closed Sales

+ 10.18%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

+ 15.08%

+ 00.17%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio

• Townhomes in the $450K with 3 Beds

dominate the Loudoun townhome market

with Ashburn and Leesburg leading the

market and Sterling remains the most

affordable option.

• YTD Sales are up by 13% and YoY Sales are

down by 6% with a rising price point YoY and a declining Month over Month price., likely stabilizing.

• Prices are rising by 6% YTD and 3% YoY,

however, Days on Market is climbing by

10% YoY. Given the declining price and

increasing DOM, price stabilization may be

occurring.

• 39% have been on market for >20 Days

and 61% have been on market for 20 Days

or less. Again, new to market, well priced

and good condition homes are moving

faster.


LOUDOUN | DETACHED HOMES

HIGHLIGHTS

Year Over Year

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

The Route 7 Corridor Report | June 2020

+ 3.42%

VALUE

Average Sale Price

- 13.49%

SALES

Closed Sales

+ 1.79%

MARKETING TIME

Days on Market

+ 13.75%

- 00.21%

NEGOTIABILITY

Subsidy –

Sale to Orig List Price Ratio

• 4 to 5 Beds under $750K is by far the

sweet spot with this lifestyle with the

leaders being Leesburg and Ashburn in the

$750K - $780K range with Sterling being

the affordability option in the sub $560K

range.

• YTD Sales are UP by 23% and YoY Sales are

down by 14% with a rising price point

Month over Month.

• Prices are rising by 2% YTD and 3% YoY

indicating demand is exceeding supply

with this lifestyle option. The opposite

micro phenomenon of Condominiums is

occurring here with rising Month over

Month prices.

• 31% have been on market for 20 Days.

• Demand continues to outpace supply and

homes in good condition and priced well

are moving quickly.

The Detached home market is the winner

of the three lifestyles indicating the potential

trend that the historically low interest rates

are driving along with the disruption as I

discussed in a previous video.

There is a 25% increase in current inventory in Coming Soon and Off Market status ready to provide buyers

with more choice. Only time will tell if prices flatten / stabilize with growing inventory.


Michele Hudnall

Market Mentor - Realtor - Marketing Strategist

Deep Roots for Smart Moves!

Your Market Strategy Mentor with Deep Roots in Northern Virginia for Smart Moves! Technology and Go-to-Market

Strategy is my passion, let's put it to use for your real estate moves!

Northern Virginia area has always been home for me and has much to offer as your lifestyle requirements move forward.

My consultative background in market analysis, go-to-market strategy and leading change for the technology companies

is what I bring to my clients for their real estate transactions.

My mission is to help you with the service, technology and marketing strategy you should expect and demand from a

Realtor. This is why I am partnered with the best in the industry - Keller Williams Realty. The real estate market is

evolving technically which is very exciting. I am not learning, I am applying technology for clients.

As I have watched Northern Virginia grow and evolve, I am also a Purple Bleeding, James Madison University alumni,

home town sports fan, foodie and a fitness fanatic who is here to serve you in making your next move.

How can I help you today?

Michele Hudnall

mhudnall@realestateofnva.com | 703.867.3436 | realestateofnva.com

Real Estate of Northern Virginia App at: RealEstateOfNVAApp.com

Schedule Time with Michele at : calendly.com/mhudnall

@RealEstateOfNVA on all platforms | facebook | twitter | instagram | linkedin | YouTube |

KW Reston

License Number: #0226007362

Office: (703) 679-1700

11700 Plaza America Drive; Suite 150

Reston, VA 20190

Michele Hudnall

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

License #0225241222

(703) 867-3436

michele@realestateofnva.com

The data used in this report comes from the MLS (Bright) with opinions provided being solely my own.


Michele Hudnall

Market Mentor - Realtor - Marketing Strategist

Deep Roots for Smart Moves!

Your Market Strategy Mentor with Deep Roots in Northern Virginia for Smart Moves! Technology and Go-to-Market

Strategy is my passion, let's put it to use for your real estate moves!

Northern Virginia area has always been home for me and has much to offer as your lifestyle requirements move forward.

My consultative background in market analysis, go-to-market strategy and leading change for the technology companies

is what I bring to my clients for their real estate transactions.

My mission is to help you with the service, technology and marketing strategy you should expect and demand from a

Realtor. This is why I am partnered with the best in the industry - Keller Williams Realty. The real estate market is

evolving technically which is very exciting. I am not learning, I am applying technology for clients.

As I have watched Northern Virginia grow and evolve, I am also a Purple Bleeding, James Madison University alumni,

home town sports fan, foodie and a fitness fanatic who is here to serve you in making your next move.

How can I help you today?

Michele Hudnall

mhudnall@realestateofnva.com | 703.867.3436 | realestateofnva.com

Real Estate of Northern Virginia App at: RealEstateOfNVAApp.com

Schedule Time with Michele at : calendly.com/mhudnall

@RealEstateOfNVA on all platforms | facebook | twitter | instagram | linkedin | YouTube |

KW Reston

License Number: #0226007362

Office: (703) 679-1700

11700 Plaza America Drive; Suite 150

Reston, VA 20190

Michele Hudnall

Real Estate of Northern Virginia

License #0225241222

(703) 67-3436

michele@realestateofnva.com

The data used in this report comes from the MLS (Bright) with opinions provided being solely my own.

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