Risk Management in Nokia Group - ECIIA
Risk Management in Nokia Group - ECIIA
Risk Management in Nokia Group - ECIIA
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Company Confidential<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Nokia</strong> <strong>Group</strong><br />
Mikko Routti, Director, <strong>Risk</strong><br />
<strong>Management</strong> and Assurance<br />
<strong>ECIIA</strong> 6-8.September
• <strong>Nokia</strong> is the world's largest<br />
manufacturer of mobile devices and a<br />
leader <strong>in</strong> mobile network equipment,<br />
solutions and services.<br />
• We also provide equipment, solutions<br />
and services for corporate customers.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> is about<br />
Connect<strong>in</strong>g People<br />
• Ranked by Interbrand as the world‘s<br />
6 th most valuable brand <strong>in</strong> 2005<br />
• <strong>Nokia</strong> has refocused its brand<br />
strategy<br />
• Deepen<strong>in</strong>g consumers‘ emotional<br />
connection with the brand<br />
• Emphasis on ‗very human technology‘<br />
• Open<strong>in</strong>g of <strong>Nokia</strong> Flagship Stores
<strong>Nokia</strong><br />
at a Glance<br />
Net sales (EUR million)<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g profit (EUR million)<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g marg<strong>in</strong>, %<br />
Earn<strong>in</strong>gs per share, diluted, EUR<br />
Research and development (EUR million)<br />
Personnel (year-end)<br />
• Head office <strong>in</strong> F<strong>in</strong>land, operations around the world, sales <strong>in</strong> more than 130 countries<br />
• <strong>Nokia</strong> sold its one billionth phone <strong>in</strong> 2005<br />
• June 19, 2006: <strong>Nokia</strong> and Siemens to merge their communications service provider<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses. <strong>Nokia</strong> Siemens Networks 2005 pro forma revenues EUR 15.8 billion.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
2005<br />
34 191<br />
4 639<br />
13.6<br />
0.83<br />
3 825<br />
58 874<br />
2004<br />
29 371<br />
4 326<br />
14.7<br />
0.69<br />
3 776<br />
55 505<br />
Change, %<br />
+16<br />
+7<br />
+20<br />
+1<br />
+6
Horizontal <strong>Group</strong>s<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> is<br />
Organized for Growth<br />
Customer and<br />
Market Operations<br />
Technology<br />
Platforms<br />
Brand and design<br />
Developer support<br />
Research and ventur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Mobile<br />
Phones<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>Group</strong>s<br />
Multimedia Enterprise<br />
Solutions<br />
Corporate Functions<br />
Networks
Our<br />
Customers<br />
• Operators<br />
• Bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
• Consumers<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
Net Sales by<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>Group</strong><br />
Enterprise<br />
Solutions<br />
EUR 861<br />
million<br />
Multimedia<br />
EUR 5 981 million<br />
Networks<br />
EUR 6 557 million<br />
3%<br />
17%<br />
19%<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
61%<br />
Mobile Phones<br />
EUR 20 811 million<br />
* <strong>Nokia</strong>’s 2004 f<strong>in</strong>ancial accounts reflect the retrospective implementation of IFRS 2 and IAS 39R.<br />
Full-year net sales by<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>ess group, EUR million<br />
Mobile Phones 20 811 18 521<br />
Multimedia<br />
Enterprise Solutions<br />
Networks<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong><br />
2005<br />
5 981<br />
861<br />
6 557<br />
Revised*<br />
2004<br />
3 676<br />
839<br />
6 431<br />
Elim<strong>in</strong>ations -19 -96<br />
34 191<br />
29 371
Our<br />
People<br />
Diversity is at the heart of our bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
Lat<strong>in</strong> America<br />
7%<br />
North America<br />
11%<br />
Asia-Pacific<br />
8%<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
10%<br />
Europe<br />
63%<br />
Middle-East & Africa<br />
1%
Balanced<br />
Global Market Presence<br />
Lat<strong>in</strong> America<br />
8%<br />
North America<br />
8%<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Asia-Pacific<br />
18%<br />
Net sales 2005:<br />
EUR 34 191 million<br />
Middle East<br />
& Africa<br />
13%<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
11%<br />
Europe<br />
42%
Towards the 3 Billion Milestone<br />
Mobile phone<br />
subscriptions<br />
globally,<br />
millions<br />
Source: <strong>Nokia</strong><br />
3 000<br />
2 800<br />
2 600<br />
2 400<br />
2 200<br />
2 000<br />
1 800<br />
1 600<br />
1 400<br />
1 200<br />
1 000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
0<br />
Current global<br />
penetration 33 %<br />
3 billion<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2008<br />
-92 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 -99 -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -08e
<strong>Nokia</strong><br />
Strategy<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Create w<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g devices<br />
Embrace consumer<br />
Internet services<br />
Deliver enterprise solutions<br />
Build scale <strong>in</strong> networks<br />
Expand professional services<br />
Brand & Design<br />
Customer engagement<br />
and fulfillment<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess portfolio <strong>Nokia</strong> strategic assets<br />
Technology and architecture
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Leader <strong>in</strong> Corporate Responsibility<br />
Index Rank<strong>in</strong>g Previous rank<strong>in</strong>g<br />
FTSE4Good 03/06 <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong>cluded<br />
Dow Jones (DJSI World) 09/05<br />
(Communications technology)<br />
Dow Jones (Stoxx) 09/05<br />
(European technology)<br />
SiRi Global Profile 500 10/02<br />
(top 10 stocks <strong>in</strong> Europe)<br />
OEKOM (<strong>in</strong>dustry: env. +soc.) biennial 02/05 2<br />
Fortune Most Admired 03/06<br />
• Social Responsibility subcategory rank<strong>in</strong>g<br />
2 1<br />
2 1<br />
1 2<br />
(out of 10)<br />
20<br />
Industry leader<br />
Industry: nr 2<br />
4<br />
(out of 19)<br />
26<br />
Industry nr 3
What is ”<strong>Risk</strong>” and ”<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” <strong>in</strong> our context<br />
‖<strong>Risk</strong> is any uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty that affects <strong>Nokia</strong>‘s objectives and<br />
the achievement of the optimum result‖ (<strong>Nokia</strong>’s <strong>Risk</strong> Policy)<br />
• Philosophy: holistic risk management (ERM), but focus on bus<strong>in</strong>ess risks<br />
• covers any material risks (<strong>in</strong>stead of pre-def<strong>in</strong>ed risk areas)<br />
• strategic<br />
• operational <strong>in</strong>cl. hazards<br />
• f<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
• Lost Opportunity – is def<strong>in</strong>itely a risk<br />
• <strong>Risk</strong> identification is <strong>in</strong>tegral part of direction-sett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> plann<strong>in</strong>g process<br />
• Key risks identified aga<strong>in</strong>st bus<strong>in</strong>ess targets -systematic cycle<br />
• Material risks reported regularly to top management and board<br />
• RM is not a separate process or action but a normal bus<strong>in</strong>ess practice<br />
• part of <strong>Group</strong> management system<br />
• part of operational work as a quality assurance practice<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
<strong>Risk</strong> Types help to identify and classify risks<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
NOKIA‘S RISK UNIVERSE<br />
<strong>in</strong>ternally and externally driven risks<br />
Brand<br />
Technology<br />
Acquisitions and partnerships<br />
Product portfolio<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> Operational Model<br />
Capital allocation<br />
Capital availability<br />
Capital structure<br />
Counterpart/credit risk<br />
Foreign Exchange<br />
Interest rate<br />
Global and regional economy<br />
Corporate Culture<br />
Markets<br />
Quality<br />
Compliance<br />
Customers & market<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Human resources<br />
IT<br />
Execution & Process efficiency<br />
Manufactur<strong>in</strong>g and care<br />
Political risks<br />
Security<br />
Suppliers & contractors<br />
Misconduct<br />
Logistics<br />
NOKIA RISK TYPES<br />
• Strategic risks<br />
• Acquisitions and partnerships<br />
• Brand<br />
• Corporate Culture<br />
• Global and regional economy<br />
• Markets<br />
• <strong>Nokia</strong> Operational Model<br />
• Product portfolio<br />
• Technology<br />
• F<strong>in</strong>ancial risks<br />
• Capital allocation<br />
• Capital availability<br />
• Capital structure<br />
• Counterpart/credit risk<br />
• Foreign Exchange<br />
• Interest rate<br />
• Operational risks<br />
• Compliance<br />
• Customers & market<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Environmental<br />
• Execution and Process efficiency<br />
• Hazard risks<br />
• Human resources<br />
• Information/report<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• IT<br />
• Logistics<br />
• Manufactur<strong>in</strong>g and care<br />
• Misconduct<br />
• Political risks<br />
• Quality<br />
• Security<br />
• Suppliers & contractors
Example: <strong>Risk</strong> Factors - <strong>Nokia</strong> 20 F Annual Report filed<br />
with SEC<br />
Headl<strong>in</strong>es:<br />
• Our sales and profitability depend on the cont<strong>in</strong>ued growth of the mobile communications<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustry as well as the growth of the new market segments with<strong>in</strong> that <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> which we have<br />
recently <strong>in</strong>vested. If the mobile communications <strong>in</strong>dustry does not grow as we expect, or if the new<br />
market segments on which we have chosen to focus and <strong>in</strong> which we have recently <strong>in</strong>vested grow<br />
less than expected, or if new faster-grow<strong>in</strong>g market segments emerge <strong>in</strong> which we have not <strong>in</strong>vested,<br />
our sales and profitability may be adversely affected.<br />
• Our results of operations, particularly our profitability, may be adversely affected if we do not<br />
successfully manage price erosion related to our products.<br />
• We must develop or otherwise acquire complex, evolv<strong>in</strong>g technologies to use <strong>in</strong> our bus<strong>in</strong>ess. If we<br />
fail to develop these technologies or to successfully commercialize them as new advanced products<br />
and solutions that meet customer demand, or fail to do so on a timely basis, it may have a material<br />
adverse effect on our bus<strong>in</strong>ess, our ability to meet our targets and our results of operations.<br />
• We need to understand the different markets <strong>in</strong> which we operate and meet the needs of our<br />
customers, which <strong>in</strong>clude mobile network operators, distributors, <strong>in</strong>dependent retailers and enterprise<br />
customers. We need to have a competitive product portfolio, and to work together with our<br />
operator customers to address their needs. Our failure to identify key market trends and to respond<br />
timely and successfully to the needs of our customers may have a material adverse impact on our<br />
market share, bus<strong>in</strong>ess and results of operations.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
Cont’d<br />
• Competition <strong>in</strong> our <strong>in</strong>dustry is <strong>in</strong>tense. Our failure to respond successfully to changes <strong>in</strong> the<br />
competitive landscape may have a material adverse impact on our bus<strong>in</strong>ess and results of operations.<br />
• Reach<strong>in</strong>g our sales, profitability, volume and market share targets depends on numerous<br />
factors. These <strong>in</strong>clude our ability to offer products and solutions that meet the demands of the market<br />
and to manage the prices and costs of our products and solutions, our operational efficiency, the pace<br />
of development and acceptance of new technologies, our success <strong>in</strong> the bus<strong>in</strong>ess areas that we have<br />
recently entered, and general economic conditions. Depend<strong>in</strong>g on those factors, some of which we<br />
may <strong>in</strong>fluence and others of which are beyond our control, we may fail to reach our targets and we<br />
may fail to provide accurate forecasts of our sales and results of operations.<br />
• Our sales and results of operations could be adversely affected if we fail to efficiently manage our<br />
manufactur<strong>in</strong>g and logistics without <strong>in</strong>terruption, or fail to ensure that our products and solutions<br />
meet our and our customers' quality, safety and other requirements and are delivered <strong>in</strong> time.<br />
• We depend on our suppliers for the timely delivery of components and for their compliance with our<br />
supplier requirements, such as, most notably, our and our customers' product quality, safety and<br />
other standards. Their failure to do so could adversely affect our ability to deliver our products and<br />
solutions successfully and on time.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
Cont’d<br />
• We are develop<strong>in</strong>g a number of our new products and solutions together with other companies. If<br />
any of these companies were to fail to perform, we may not be able to br<strong>in</strong>g our products and<br />
solutions to market successfully or <strong>in</strong> a timely way and this could have a material adverse impact on<br />
our sales and profitability.<br />
• Our operations rely on complex and highly centralized <strong>in</strong>formation technology systems and<br />
networks. If any system or network disruption occurs, this reliance could have a material adverse<br />
impact on our operations, sales and operat<strong>in</strong>g results.<br />
• Our products and solutions <strong>in</strong>clude <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly complex technology <strong>in</strong>volv<strong>in</strong>g numerous new <strong>Nokia</strong><br />
patented and other proprietary technologies, as well as some developed or licensed to us by certa<strong>in</strong><br />
third parties. As a consequence, evaluat<strong>in</strong>g the protection of the technologies we <strong>in</strong>tend to use is<br />
more and more challeng<strong>in</strong>g, and we expect <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly to face claims that we have <strong>in</strong>fr<strong>in</strong>ged third<br />
parties' <strong>in</strong>tellectual property rights. The use of <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly complex technology may also result <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>creased licens<strong>in</strong>g costs for us, restrictions on our ability to use certa<strong>in</strong> technologies <strong>in</strong> our products<br />
and solution offer<strong>in</strong>gs, and/or costly and time-consum<strong>in</strong>g litigation. Third parties may also commence<br />
actions seek<strong>in</strong>g to establish the <strong>in</strong>validity of <strong>in</strong>tellectual property rights on which we depend.<br />
• If we are unable to recruit, reta<strong>in</strong> and develop appropriately skilled employees, we may not be<br />
able to implement our strategies and, consequently, our results of operations may suffer.<br />
• The global networks bus<strong>in</strong>ess relies on a limited number of customers and large multi-year<br />
contracts. Unfavorable developments under such a contract or <strong>in</strong> relation to a major customer may<br />
affect our sales, our results of operations and cash flow adversely.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
Cont’d<br />
• Our sales derived from, and assets located <strong>in</strong>, emerg<strong>in</strong>g market countries may be adversely<br />
affected by economic, regulatory and political developments <strong>in</strong> those countries. As sales from these<br />
countries represent an <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g portion of our total sales, economic or political turmoil <strong>in</strong> these<br />
countries could adversely affect our sales and results of operations. Our <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> emerg<strong>in</strong>g<br />
market countries may also be subject to other risks and uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties.<br />
• Our sales, costs and results are affected by exchange rate fluctuations, particularly between the<br />
euro, which is our report<strong>in</strong>g currency, and the US dollar, the UK pound sterl<strong>in</strong>g and the Japanese yen<br />
as well as certa<strong>in</strong> other currencies.<br />
• Customer f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g to network operators can be a competitive requirement and could affect our<br />
sales, results of operations, balance sheet and cash flow adversely.<br />
• Allegations of health risks from the electromagnetic fields generated by base stations and mobile<br />
devices, and the lawsuits and publicity relat<strong>in</strong>g to them, regardless of merit, could affect our<br />
operations negatively by lead<strong>in</strong>g consumers to reduce their use of mobile devices or by caus<strong>in</strong>g us to<br />
allocate monetary and personnel resources to these issues.<br />
• An unfavorable outcome of litigation could materially impact our bus<strong>in</strong>ess, f<strong>in</strong>ancial condition or<br />
results of operations.<br />
• Changes <strong>in</strong> various types of regulation <strong>in</strong> countries around the world could affect our bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
adversely.<br />
• Our share price has been and may cont<strong>in</strong>ue to be volatile <strong>in</strong> response to conditions <strong>in</strong> the global<br />
securities markets generally and <strong>in</strong> the communications and technology sectors <strong>in</strong> particular.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
20F <strong>Risk</strong> Factors data categorized <strong>in</strong>to <strong>Risk</strong><br />
Types<br />
Foreign Exchange 5 %<br />
Global and regional econ 5 %<br />
Hazard 5 %<br />
HR 5 %<br />
IT 5 %<br />
Markets 5 %<br />
Execution and process ef 15 %<br />
Political 5 %<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Product portfolio 10 %<br />
N-<strong>Risk</strong> - version 1.30 - CONFIDENTIAL<br />
Customers and Market<strong>in</strong>g 5 %<br />
Counterparty/credit risk 5 %<br />
Suppliers 10 %<br />
Compliance 10 %<br />
Technology 10 %<br />
2 Compliance<br />
1 Counterparty/credit risk<br />
1 Customers and Market<strong>in</strong>g<br />
3 Execution and process ef<br />
1 Foreign Exchange<br />
1 Global and regional econ<br />
1 Hazard<br />
1 HR<br />
1 IT<br />
1 Markets<br />
1 Political<br />
2 Product portfolio<br />
2 Suppliers<br />
2 Technology
Why have we <strong>in</strong>vested <strong>in</strong>to ERM?<br />
% of<br />
Value<br />
Collapse<br />
100<br />
40%<br />
35%<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
37%<br />
Demand<br />
Shortfall &<br />
Customer<br />
Losses<br />
Source: Lipp<strong>in</strong>cott Mercer<br />
11%<br />
Competitive &<br />
Pric<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Pressures<br />
7%<br />
Wrong<br />
Products<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
3%<br />
Merger<br />
Problems<br />
2%<br />
Regulation<br />
From 1998-2003, 10% of Fortune 1000<br />
companies lost 55% or more of shareholder<br />
value with<strong>in</strong> a one-month period. Most of these<br />
companies lost value because of strategic risk.<br />
0%<br />
R&D<br />
Delays<br />
8% 8%<br />
Cost<br />
Overrun<br />
Account<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Problems<br />
Strategic 60% Operational 22% F<strong>in</strong>ancial 7% Hazard 11%<br />
4%<br />
2%<br />
Ineffective<br />
<strong>Management</strong><br />
Supplier & Supply<br />
Cha<strong>in</strong> Problems<br />
5%<br />
2%<br />
6%<br />
5%<br />
Foreign High Non- Catas<br />
Economic & Input Account<strong>in</strong>g -trophic<br />
Interest Prices/ Law- Events<br />
Rate Cost of suits<br />
Issues Raw<br />
Materials
Evolution of <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g<br />
―Manag<strong>in</strong>g risks <strong>in</strong> silos, among other bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
topics-hazards <strong>in</strong>sured‖<br />
Project management/quality related/SW-related RM (PM<br />
BOK, FMEA, ISO, CMMI....)<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ance/Insurance/hazard<br />
risks/captives/loss prevention<br />
70 80 90 2000<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Corporate Governance<br />
―New risks‖: Supplier, IPR, IT<br />
Security, Brand, HR...<br />
ERM<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> RM CONCEPT 2005<br />
1. Governance<br />
• AC, CFO report<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Steer<strong>in</strong>g<br />
2. RM Infrastructure<br />
• Policy, language<br />
• assurance model<br />
• One team<br />
3. Methodology<br />
• Common language<br />
• L<strong>in</strong>kage to Plann<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• RM cycle, process<br />
4. Key practices<br />
• KRL<br />
• RM CSA<br />
• RM PA<br />
5. People<br />
• Roles, tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
6. Tools<br />
• KRL, <strong>Risk</strong> Log<br />
• N-<strong>Risk</strong><br />
7. Benchmarks<br />
• COSO ERM
The COSO ERM Framework is a useful<br />
benchmark<br />
Entity objectives can be viewed <strong>in</strong> the<br />
context of four categories:<br />
• Strategic<br />
• Operations<br />
• Report<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Compliance<br />
Source IIA: Apply<strong>in</strong>g COSO<br />
ERM<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> as part of Corporate Governance<br />
1. Manag<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>ess risks is a normal management responsibility<br />
• RM activity can br<strong>in</strong>g assurance on how that is go<strong>in</strong>g on<br />
• <strong>Management</strong> process <strong>in</strong>cl. plann<strong>in</strong>g and SRMS set a support<strong>in</strong>g framework<br />
2. Organiz<strong>in</strong>g RM activity - Regulatory Guidance:<br />
• NYSE: Duties of Board/ Audit Committee and key risks as part of 20F Annual Report<br />
• HEX: Corporate Governance recommendation: description of RM system<br />
3. Specific external requirements<br />
• Internal Control – SOX-COSO/COBIT<br />
• F<strong>in</strong>ancial RM: IAS 32.56<br />
4. Quality etc. external standards<br />
• ISO, BS<br />
• PM BOK, CMMI, FMEA, PAS 56<br />
5. Internal guidance<br />
• <strong>Risk</strong> Policy<br />
• Treasury Policy, Security Policy, Code of Conduct, HR policies etc.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
Roles and Responsibilities have been def<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>Group</strong>s<br />
Board of Directors/<br />
Audit Committee<br />
Executive Board<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> People<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Horizontal <strong>Group</strong>s<br />
Platforms<br />
Board of Directors/Audit Committee<br />
• Approves <strong>Group</strong>’s <strong>Risk</strong> Policy<br />
• Reviews its implementation<br />
• Reviews regular Key <strong>Risk</strong> reports<br />
• Can <strong>in</strong>itiate assessments<br />
Executive Board<br />
• Approves <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Approach<br />
• Determ<strong>in</strong>es how to implement Policy<br />
• Reviews <strong>Group</strong>’s regular Key <strong>Risk</strong> reports<br />
• Communicates about risk appetite<br />
• Can <strong>in</strong>itiate assessments<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess and Horizontal <strong>Group</strong>s<br />
• Implement Policy at operational level<br />
• Identify own key risks and manage them<br />
• Key risks regular management <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
• Regular key risk report to <strong>Nokia</strong> level<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Support Team<br />
• Supports Policy implementation<br />
• Develops good practice methods<br />
• Consolidates group wide risk report<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Review risk management maturity through<br />
assessments<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> People/Individuals<br />
• Responsible for manag<strong>in</strong>g own risks
Flow of <strong>Risk</strong> Data around plann<strong>in</strong>g process<br />
What are the key<br />
risks aga<strong>in</strong>st<br />
Strategies or<br />
operational plans?<br />
BG/HG MT‘s -<br />
consolidated<br />
risk maps<br />
BU KRL risk map<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> analysis/management<br />
<strong>in</strong> daily work/<br />
on-go<strong>in</strong>g actions<br />
CF’<br />
s<br />
845<br />
12 3<br />
967<br />
10<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
845<br />
12 3<br />
967<br />
10<br />
845<br />
12 3<br />
967<br />
10<br />
Board/<br />
Audit Committee<br />
8 4<br />
5<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
8 4<br />
5<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
8 4<br />
5<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
8 4<br />
5<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
MP 9 6<br />
7 M 9 6<br />
7 E 9 6<br />
7<br />
9 6<br />
NET 7<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
FEEDBACK<br />
<strong>Group</strong> Executive<br />
Board<br />
FEEDBACK<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
Best practice<br />
S<br />
SHARING<br />
Plann<strong>in</strong>g<br />
RM SG<br />
8 4<br />
5<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
9 HG’s 6<br />
7<br />
Used as<br />
basis for<br />
20F risk<br />
factors<br />
<strong>Group</strong> Level<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> Report<br />
(TOP20+BG/HG’s)<br />
8<br />
4<br />
1<br />
5<br />
2<br />
3<br />
9<br />
6<br />
7<br />
10
Simple <strong>in</strong>terfaces to document and analyse risks<br />
• <strong>Risk</strong> data is<br />
processed by utiliz<strong>in</strong>g<br />
common <strong>Risk</strong><br />
template<br />
• PP <strong>Risk</strong> Maps are<br />
created based on the<br />
collected <strong>Risk</strong> data:<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
KEY RISK TEMPLATE<br />
By:<br />
Entity / Area of bus<strong>in</strong>ess:<br />
Date created:<br />
Team monitor<strong>in</strong>g date:<br />
<strong>Risk</strong><br />
ID<br />
Strategy,<br />
STP1H or<br />
STP2H<br />
1. <strong>Risk</strong> ID<br />
2. <strong>Risk</strong> event<br />
3. Root cause and related factors<br />
4. Consequences<br />
5. [EUR impact (if can be estimated)]<br />
6. Estimated impact (us<strong>in</strong>g a scale of 1-5)<br />
7. Estimated probability<br />
(us<strong>in</strong>g a scale of 1-3)<br />
8. <strong>Risk</strong> rate (calculated by Excel)<br />
9. Expected actions<br />
10. Action Owner<br />
Root causes of<br />
risk event<br />
RISK EVENT Consequences<br />
PROBABILITY<br />
Low Low (1) (1) (1) (1)<br />
Medium (2)<br />
High (3)<br />
Insignificant<br />
(1)<br />
Key <strong>Risk</strong> Map<br />
Some<br />
(2)<br />
Estimated<br />
Impact dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
3 years<br />
(MEUR)<br />
3 2<br />
1<br />
3<br />
Mean<strong>in</strong>gful<br />
(3)<br />
of which may<br />
actualise<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g next<br />
STP period<br />
(MEUR)<br />
1 5 3 HIGH<br />
2 4 3 HIGH<br />
3 3 3 MEDIUM<br />
4 5 2 HIGH<br />
5 N/A<br />
6 N/A<br />
2<br />
Significant<br />
(4)<br />
4<br />
4<br />
Please see the explanation notes beh<strong>in</strong>d each topic field<br />
Estimated<br />
impact<br />
scale (1-5)<br />
1<br />
Major<br />
(5)<br />
Sort all by Top-Down<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> 1<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> 2<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> 3<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> 4<br />
Estimated<br />
probability<br />
scale (1-3)<br />
<strong>Risk</strong><br />
Magnitude
Operative RM <strong>in</strong> daily work and projects<br />
• risk management <strong>in</strong> daily work and projects (Project RM)<br />
• best practice: BU‘s/teams follow their risks on on-go<strong>in</strong>g basis<br />
• LRP/STP plann<strong>in</strong>g: a snap-shot created for report<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• BG/HG/CF normal follow-up of key risks/agreed actions (qtrly, monthly)<br />
BG/HG MT‘s -<br />
consolidated<br />
risk maps<br />
BU KRL risk maps<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> analysis/management<br />
<strong>in</strong> daily work/<br />
on-go<strong>in</strong>g actions<br />
845<br />
12 3<br />
967<br />
10<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
845<br />
12 3<br />
967<br />
10<br />
845<br />
12 3<br />
967<br />
10<br />
8<br />
BG<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
4 5<br />
9<br />
6<br />
7<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
8 45 1<br />
32<br />
9 67<br />
10<br />
Feedback<br />
Best practice
Common language requires common vocabulary<br />
A<br />
Accepted risks<br />
Description of risks which exist but bus<strong>in</strong>ess owners have decided not to<br />
mitigate them. However, some of them will be actively followed<br />
Action owner<br />
Person who is responsible that risk controll<strong>in</strong>g actions are planned,<br />
agreed, documented and implemented.<br />
Assurance<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong>‘s approach to br<strong>in</strong>g visibility and assurance to management and the<br />
Board on key risk areas and on the design and effectiveness of risk<br />
controls <strong>in</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess processes. Assurance means also the comfort the<br />
<strong>in</strong>dividual manager gets from risk management and control actions<br />
Assessment<br />
An analysis about the current state of processes and their maturity<br />
compared to def<strong>in</strong>ed benchmarks<br />
I<br />
Impact<br />
The evaluated loss/effect <strong>in</strong> qualitative and monetary terms<br />
Internal control<br />
Internal control consists of measurement and monitor<strong>in</strong>g of bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
objectives and performance, supported by quality, control, risk and<br />
monitor<strong>in</strong>g processes<br />
M<br />
Maturity<br />
Def<strong>in</strong>es the level of understand<strong>in</strong>g, framework and implementation of the<br />
issue <strong>in</strong> question<br />
O<br />
Objective<br />
A goal that has an achievable, well-def<strong>in</strong>ed target level of achievement.<br />
P<br />
Probability<br />
The likelihood of risk event occurance by tak<strong>in</strong>g the current controls <strong>in</strong>to<br />
account<br />
Problem<br />
Problem - a realised issue which can be def<strong>in</strong>ed as a consequence of a<br />
risk event identified at earlier stage<br />
R<br />
<strong>Risk</strong><br />
Any uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty that affects the objectives and achievement of optimum<br />
result.<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> analysis<br />
A process step <strong>in</strong> risk management. <strong>Risk</strong>s are categorized and<br />
consolidated, risk scenarios are completed for ma<strong>in</strong> risk events and risk<br />
effects, probabilities and utility losses are estimated for all risk scenarios<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> appetite<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> appetite expresses the organizations will<strong>in</strong>gness to take risks. <strong>Risk</strong><br />
appetite is def<strong>in</strong>ed at the end by the board and can vary between risk<br />
areas and categories.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> effect / consequence<br />
The comb<strong>in</strong>ed impact of risk event and result<strong>in</strong>g reactions to goals<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> event<br />
An occurrence of an <strong>in</strong>cident with some negative consequences<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> factor<br />
A known fact or characteristic that <strong>in</strong>fluences some risk event<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> identification<br />
A process step <strong>in</strong> risk management. Potential threats to the project are identified<br />
us<strong>in</strong>g a chosen approach<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> magnitude<br />
Significance or size of the risk. Determ<strong>in</strong>ed by a risk‘s probability of occurrence and<br />
(utility) loss would cause.<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> management authority<br />
Ultimate decision mak<strong>in</strong>g authority is def<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> risk management mandate.<br />
Authority is to decide which approach to risk is to be taken <strong>in</strong> unclear situations.<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> management coach<br />
A <strong>Nokia</strong> person with professional skills and responsibilities <strong>in</strong> other areas but<br />
additionally authorized by his/her superiors and qualified for assist<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
implementation of risk management activities with<strong>in</strong> his/her respective area.<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> management mandate<br />
An explicit def<strong>in</strong>ition of the scope, frequency, focus, responsibility and cha<strong>in</strong> of<br />
authorities <strong>in</strong> a specific area for risk management<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> management mandate def<strong>in</strong>ition<br />
A process step <strong>in</strong> risk management. The scope and frequency of risk management<br />
and the relevant stakeholders are def<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> this step<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> monitor<strong>in</strong>g<br />
A process step <strong>in</strong> risk management. <strong>Risk</strong> controll<strong>in</strong>g actions and chosen/new risks<br />
are monitored <strong>in</strong> an agreed forum and <strong>in</strong>terval.<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> owner<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> owner is the function or person who is responsible for manag<strong>in</strong>g the risk and<br />
takes the upside and downside to the P&L<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> prioritization<br />
Rank<strong>in</strong>g of risks. <strong>Risk</strong> scenario probabilities are estimated and utility losses of<br />
scenarios are ranked separately for each relevant stakeholder<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> scenario<br />
A comb<strong>in</strong>ation of risk elements that describe the causes, trigger<strong>in</strong>g events and the<br />
impact of a risk. Normally a scenario consists of a risk event, risk reaction and risk<br />
effect set<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> tolerance<br />
The grade of risk aversion def<strong>in</strong>ed by a company's ability to be exposed to various<br />
risks. Ma<strong>in</strong> criteria for def<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g risk tolerance are f<strong>in</strong>ancial, operational and ethical<br />
measures<br />
Root cause<br />
The orig<strong>in</strong>al reason for risk to exist.<br />
S<br />
Stakeholder<br />
Any <strong>in</strong>dividual, group, organization, or <strong>in</strong>stitution who can affect or be affected by<br />
the work goals or their results<br />
Self Assessment<br />
A concept designed for the organization and <strong>in</strong>dividuals to be able to def<strong>in</strong>e its own<br />
maturity and status at def<strong>in</strong>ed areas.
<strong>Risk</strong> Workshops give wider coverage<br />
Sales manager<br />
view<br />
Production view<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance view<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
DEFINED<br />
RISK<br />
AREA<br />
R&D view<br />
Lawyer view
Identification: Checklists vs. Bra<strong>in</strong>storm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Brand<br />
Technology<br />
Acquisitions and partnerships<br />
Global and regional economy<br />
Product portfolio<br />
<strong>Nokia</strong> Operational Model<br />
Capital allocation<br />
Capital availability<br />
Capital structure<br />
Counterparty/credit risk<br />
Foreign Exchange<br />
Interest rate<br />
Corporate Culture<br />
Markets<br />
Compliance<br />
Quality<br />
Customers & market<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Human resources<br />
Logistics<br />
Political risks<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
IT<br />
Execution & Process efficiency<br />
Suppliers & contractors<br />
Manufactur<strong>in</strong>g and care<br />
Misconduct<br />
Security<br />
Checklists<br />
• Pros<br />
• Fast and easy to use<br />
• Standardize results<br />
• Cover a broad area<br />
• May prompt th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g new risks<br />
• Cons<br />
• Cause fatigue<br />
• Do not encourage creativity<br />
• May be biased due to a different<br />
doma<strong>in</strong><br />
• Do not encourage f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g situation<br />
specific risks<br />
Bra<strong>in</strong>storm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• yellow stickers etc<br />
• Pros<br />
• Fast and easy to use<br />
• Leverages local expertise and<br />
<strong>in</strong>sight<br />
• Keeps participants active<br />
• Develops commitment<br />
• Cons<br />
• Requires facilitation or tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Meet<strong>in</strong>g dynamics may bias results<br />
• Dependent on participants<br />
experience
RM Process Cycle – used <strong>in</strong> major projects/ cases<br />
Responsibilities and scope<br />
for risk management<br />
Follow-up<br />
actions and<br />
changes at<br />
risks<br />
Implementation of<br />
selected controll<strong>in</strong>g<br />
actions<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
It describes elements which should exist<br />
<strong>in</strong> a good process or project<br />
Goals to be protected, relative<br />
priorities set by the key stakeholders<br />
Iterative<br />
process<br />
by the nature<br />
Documented,<br />
prioritised risks<br />
List of potential risks<br />
aga<strong>in</strong>st the goals
N-<strong>Risk</strong> Tool for analys<strong>in</strong>g and stor<strong>in</strong>g risk data<br />
• Supports to def<strong>in</strong>e risks <strong>in</strong> mean<strong>in</strong>gful way, and to compare and share risk data<br />
• All <strong>in</strong> one tool set<br />
• Basic/advanced user modes<br />
• Data import/export<br />
• Automatic key risk map<br />
creation<br />
• Action database<br />
• Actions summary table<br />
• Automatic history record<strong>in</strong>g<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution
Metrics for (self)-assess<strong>in</strong>g RM maturity<br />
Example section with illustrative scores. However, the maturity report<br />
shows only the average of approach and deployment<br />
Rat<strong>in</strong>g Approach Rat<strong>in</strong>g Deployment<br />
1<br />
1<br />
Mechanism for plann<strong>in</strong>g work<br />
and target sett<strong>in</strong>g exists<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> identification and analysis<br />
methodology exists 1<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
1<br />
Plann<strong>in</strong>g cycle is followed and<br />
objectives are documented<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> idenfication and analysis done<br />
as part of plann<strong>in</strong>g process<br />
1<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> management actions are<br />
def<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
Actions are systematically<br />
implement<strong>in</strong>g<br />
1<br />
Follow-up system is def<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
1<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> is <strong>in</strong>tegrated to<br />
report<strong>in</strong>g processes<br />
Practices and Roles are agreed<br />
Agreed structures are followed <strong>in</strong><br />
and documented<br />
practice<br />
4 TOTAL POINTS IN APPROACH 3 TOTAL POINTS IN DEPLOYMENT
How do we follow “the market”? - Example<br />
� Embed <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>in</strong>to Exist<strong>in</strong>g Processes: Global risk management exemplars are not creat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
new and separate risk processes to identify, measure and mitigate risks, but <strong>in</strong>stead are embedd<strong>in</strong>g risk<br />
discipl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong>to exist<strong>in</strong>g processes—strategic plann<strong>in</strong>g, forecast<strong>in</strong>g, KPIs, <strong>in</strong>centives, and the capital<br />
budget<strong>in</strong>g process. Embedd<strong>in</strong>g risk management <strong>in</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g processes m<strong>in</strong>imizes report<strong>in</strong>g burdens and<br />
ensures risks will be considered <strong>in</strong> all bus<strong>in</strong>ess decisions.<br />
� Decentralize Most <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>: Lead<strong>in</strong>g CFOs are resist<strong>in</strong>g the adoption of centralized ERM because<br />
of its dubious benefits and its <strong>in</strong>ord<strong>in</strong>ate costs. Instead, they are keep<strong>in</strong>g most responsibility for identify<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
mitigat<strong>in</strong>g risk <strong>in</strong> the l<strong>in</strong>e, not the corporate center.<br />
� Adopt a Limited Role for the Center: The best risk management role for the center is to aggregate and<br />
prioritize bus<strong>in</strong>ess unit risks, to communicate risk exposure and mitigation strategies to stakeholders, and to<br />
partner with the bus<strong>in</strong>ess units to help them manage risks more effectively.<br />
� Encourage Appropriate <strong>Risk</strong> Tak<strong>in</strong>g: Unfocused, overly <strong>in</strong>clusive risk track<strong>in</strong>g and mitigation <strong>in</strong>itiatives may<br />
have the unfortunate impact of stifl<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>ess unit <strong>in</strong>novation, overload<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>ess unit f<strong>in</strong>ance directors,<br />
and creat<strong>in</strong>g a culture of ―<strong>in</strong>crementalism.‖<br />
� Allow for Flexibility <strong>in</strong> <strong>Risk</strong> Assessments: The challenge that most CFOs face when creat<strong>in</strong>g a new risk<br />
assessment process is that templated assessments typically result <strong>in</strong> superficial risk evaluations from the<br />
l<strong>in</strong>e, but the absence of templates makes it difficult to aggregate bus<strong>in</strong>ess unit risks at the enterprise<br />
level. To solve these challenges, lead<strong>in</strong>g companies customize sections of templated questionnaires by<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>ess unit and/or allow for commentary on additional risks. Companies that do not use templates facilitate<br />
risk aggregation by provid<strong>in</strong>g the l<strong>in</strong>e with clear risk categories and def<strong>in</strong>itions.<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution<br />
Source: CFO EXECUTIVE BOARD
Conclusions<br />
• focus is <strong>in</strong> proactively manag<strong>in</strong>g the bus<strong>in</strong>ess risks the company itself needs<br />
to manage, rather than respond<strong>in</strong>g to external issues<br />
• risk report<strong>in</strong>g is <strong>in</strong>tegrated <strong>in</strong>to plann<strong>in</strong>g process both short and long term; unified<br />
risk term<strong>in</strong>ology, and common but scaleable metrics<br />
• key risks are identified and validated <strong>in</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess units, bus<strong>in</strong>ess groups and<br />
executive team, before report<strong>in</strong>g to Board. Content is basis for 20F SEC report<br />
• methods to assess team‘s RM maturity (how good we are <strong>in</strong> this?) and to assess<br />
any risk area, current practices and learn<br />
• all practices are focused on provid<strong>in</strong>g on-time, 80/20 correct, and actionable<br />
view on future events rather than provide complex modell<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Thank You, Questions or Comments?<br />
© 2006 <strong>Nokia</strong> Mikko Routti RM&A Not for redistribution