The Global Water Crisis: Addressing an Urgent Security - Unu-inweh ...

5. The Potential for Conflict and the Exploding Time Bomb
Changes in fundamental hydrology are likely to cause new kinds of conflict, and it can be expected that both water
scarcity and flooding will become major transboundary water issues. At present, it is estimated that perhaps 25% of the
world’s major river basins run dry for part of each year (Solomon, 2010). New conflicts are likely to emerge as more of the
world’s rivers become further heavily abstracted so that they no longer make it to the sea. The prospect of the kinds of
floods that were witnessed in Pakistan and Australia in 2010 and on the Great Plains of North America in 2011 suggests
that the destruction of upstream flood protection and the failure to provide adequate downstream flood warning will
enter into global conflict formula in the future. But is it not just floods that are likely to cause conflict. Prolonged drought
as was experienced in the Horn of Africa in 2011 suggests that tensions will rise on both ends of the hydrological scale.
What this changing hydrology signifies is that it is unwise to take too isolated a view of what the anticipated impacts of
climate change will be or mean. In Canada, the thinking surrounding climate change remains linear: many still think the
effects of climate change will be local, minor and cumulative. In fact, it will not be long before climate change affects
everyone, everywhere, simultaneously compounding every regional economic, social and political disparity. As this
happens, it can be expected that the potential for general tensions and conflict over water will rise.
What humans have collectively done over time is to have quite accidentally – unwittingly, in fact – created a hydro-climatic
time bomb. The bomb has already started to tick, but no one knows when it will go off. In order to avoid conflict, society
needs to come up with solutions to quickly defuse this increasingly alarming situation.
One immediate partial solution to this problem is water conservation. It is widely accepted that water, energy and climate
are linked. This realization suggests that head-turning economic benefits can accrue to governments and the people they
serve by way of water conservation. However, in many parts of the developed world, wasteful water use is still accepted
and encouraged as a social norm. At enormous public cost, water infrastructure has been overbuilt in order to support
this wasteful norm. However, it has now become apparent that we cannot afford to maintain and replace the overbuilt
infrastructure that supports this waste, which increases the risk of public health threats and leaves societies in a very
vulnerable position.
It has become apparent that enormous amounts of energy are wasted treating and moving water. The cost of energy
is rising and cities are discovering that they can’t afford to spend up to 60% of their municipal energy budgets to move
water to where it is being used profligately. In addition, there is the realization that this wasted energy for the purpose of
wasting water is accelerating climate change, which in turn is accelerating damage to the infrastructure that cities can’t
afford to maintain or replace.
This has, unwittingly, created a positive climate change feedback loop – an obviously vicious circle that is simultaneously
bankrupting societies while compounding climate change effects. This cycle will accelerate until improved water conservation
measures are implemented and practiced by society at large, and a sense of responsibility and ownership are undertaken
for securing water for the future.
The increase in the severity and number of storms has already been noticed by the industry. Insurers are particularly
worried about the rapidly increasing rate of water-damage claims (MacGregor, 2011). In a special report on managing
the risks of extreme events and disasters, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change echoed the concerns of the
insurance industry, claiming in addition that extreme weather events will have greater impacts on sectors with closer
links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health and tourism (IPCC, 2012). The report also
went on to point out that opportunities exist to create synergies in international finance for disaster risk management
and adaptation to climate change, but that these have not yet been fully realized (IPCC, 2012).
The wastefulness of some developed countries with respect to water and related energy use puts into relief the challenge
we face in supplying water to the 1 billion people on earth who do not have a safe and reliable daily supply. It also speaks to
the challenge of serving the additional 2 billion people on this planet who do not have daily access to adequate sanitation.
Industry examples suggest that for every dollar saved in water use in the developed world, as much as four dollars more
is saved on chemical, electricity and energy costs (Fishman, 2011). If such savings could somehow be directed in part
towards water infrastructure development in the developing world, the improvements in human well-being would go a
long way in reducing the potential for conflict over matters of water supply and quality in the future.
Will the Next Wars Be Fought Over Water?
Part 1
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