Fine & Country | National Housing Market Update | December 2020

DOMVSproperties

2020 is drawing to a close, an unprecedented year in history and one in which the housing market has yet again proved its resilience. House price growth has strengthened over the course of the year across both the mainstream and prime markets, with a record number of sales in progress for this time of year.

DECEMBER 2020

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE


K E Y S T A T S

E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES

£712,000 £1,078,520 7.85%

£616 £36.3bn 12,396

LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE

MORTGAGE APPROVALS 97,532 135.0% 51.1%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 105,630 55.7% 8.1%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £21.5 bn 24.5% -0.2%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 12,950 -52.0% -59.2%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 14,050 -54.4% -62.2%

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

2STAY 0 1 8 - SAFE TH E THIS YE A R CHRISTMAS

TH AT WAS

Although 2020 is drawing the festive to a season close, an is upon unprecedented us, there is little year seasonal in history cheer and and one ‘good in which

will to all’

evident the housing across market the political has yet arena. again Brexit proved continues its resilience. to dominate House price the headlines growth has

all eyes

await strengthened the final outcome. over the course Whatever of the year conclusion, across both there the are mainstream sure to be implications and prime

for

sterling markets, and with the a economy. record number As 2018 of draws sales in to progress a close, are for we this any time closer of year.

to predicting what

we can expect in 2019?

AN UNPRECEDENTED YEAR

Rewind a year and the country was waiting with bated breath

to GLIMMERS see who would OF occupy SEASONAL Number CHEER 10 for Christmas, after the

third election in just five years. Europe was top of the agenda.

Throughout 2018 sales volumes across the housing market

A year of Covid-dominated headlines has seen Brexit slip down

have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyer

the priority list, although with final ties set to be cut from

demand and low levels of consumer confidence. However,

1st January, it’s back on the agenda.

latest data from the Bank of England indicates mortgage

approvals in October were 4% higher than a year ago, while

The the total

impact value

of the of

Covid-19 lending hit

pandemic its highest

has resulted monthly

in figure

a year since

like no

other, the surge

and one in transactions

which has impacted prior to

our the lives introduction and how we of use theour

homes additional significantly. 3% SDLT ‘Garden’ levy in has March proved 2016. the most More popular sales took search

term place across across the the housing UK in market October throughout than in any 2020; month ‘detached’, since ‘rural’

July

and 2017, ‘secluded’ while Rightmove also make it data into shows Zoopla’s properties top 10 list. in With 2018 24% toof

the date workforce have taken currently an average working of from 61 days home from (ONS), the and start many

of

predicting marketing that to being a full-time sold-subject-to-contract, return to the office is unlikely, one day additional

space shorter continues than last to year be a priority, and an with improvement larger homes on seeing the 65 the days most

significant witnessed rise in in 2016. interest.

Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer,

mortgage interest rates remain low. UK Finance report that

ACTIVE at 2.23% the AUTUMN

current average mortgage interest rate is lower

than the rate both five and ten years ago, 3.14% and 6.11%

Activity across the housing market this autumn has set new

respectively. Adjusting for inflation, wages have risen over

records. The number of sales agreed was up 50% in October

the past year, positive news for household finances.

with properties selling (sold STC) in just 49 days, 15 days

faster than a year ago, according to Rightmove. It is estimated

over SENSE 105,000 AND transactions SENSIBILITY completed in October, the highest

monthly Sensible figure pricing since remains March crucial 2016 to (prior achieving to the a sale. introduction The of

the average 3% SDLT asking surcharge), price of a property and up 8.1% fell by year-on-year 1.7% in November, (HMRC).

Mortgage the largest approvals November remain fall since robust, 2012 with according gross mortgage

to

lending Rightmove, at its while highest annual level house since price the housing growth market has moderated entered

lockdown throughout in the March year. (Bank Annual of England). house price Despite growth the across availability

the

of UK fewer in the mortgage year to September products across was 3.5%, the marketplace, down from 4.6% at 2.12%

a

the year average ago, according mortgage to rate the official is historically UK House low, Price and demand Index. levels

remain Average high. prices The across NAEA London report remain the number slightly of lower prospective

than a

buyers year ago, per the branch capital reached currently an feeling average the of brunt 451, the of Brexit highest ever

recorded uncertainty. for the month of October. The Dataloft Demand

Index and Rightmove both reported an uptick in demand

during the first week of Lockdown 2 across England.

Across the UK prime markets, the average price of property

is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many

SOBER SPENDING

assets 2018 has not proved momentous. In the year to the

Against end of the November backdrop the of a average resilient price housing of gold market, has fallen the

by

Chancellor’s over 1%, the

spending stock market

review on (FTSE

25th 100)

November by 6%, while

made

the S&P

sober Global

reading. Luxury

Covid-19 Index is

has 5.5%

caused lower

the than

economy a year ago,

to shrink

despite

fine wines and classic cars boasting small positive returns.

by 11.3% this year, with public borrowing at record highs and

Many commentators report evidence of pent-up demand

unemployment anticipated to reach 2.6 million (7.5%) by

for higher priced properties, with prospective vendors

the middle of 2021 – the highest since the Global Financial

waiting for more clarity before they commit to their

Crisis. Continued government financial support and the

purchase.

extension of the furlough scheme to March will help many

and the introduction of a successful vaccine programme will

undoubtedly A CRYSTAL aid economic BALL recovery. As it stands, the Office

for Unsurprisingly

Budget Responsibility all current

forecast forecasts

the for

economy 2019 are

will issued

grow with

by

5.5% a caveat over 2021 relating and to 6.6% a deal in 2022, being the brokered country between set to return

the UK

to pre-pandemic the EU. The levels Governor by Quarter of the 4 Bank in 2022. of England, Inflation Mark and

interest Carney, rates has are reiterated forecast his to forecast remain low.

that in the event of a nodeal

Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average

house prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the

WHAT Office for WILL Budget THE Responsibility NEW YEAR point to BRING?

employment levels

continuing to rise in 2019, along with average earnings, while

Rightmove inflation asserts is predicted there to are edge currently back to 650,000 the government’s more home

2.0%

purchases target. This in the may pipeline well require than a a year gradual ago, rise as buyers in interest seek

rates,

to make although the the most current of property view is taxation that the savings base rate before

will rise to

the just March 1.5 – 31st 1.75% deadline. by 2021. Forthcoming changes to capital

gains tax and for overseas purchasers in the form of a 2%

Across the housing market, as per 2018, many

surcharge from April are also impacting activity across the

commentators expect the wider UK market to outperform

capital. London.

The unanswerable An average of

question independent

at present forecasts

is what predicts

will

price

happen growth

to across

the market the UK

post will

March, be 2.2%

with during

many 2019.

calling In

for an

extension comparison, to the those stamp commentating duty holiday on due the to London the number market of

sales anticipate caught in 2019 the conveyancing may well prove process. another A year consensus of falling of

independent prices. Compound forecasts growth suggests across price the growth UK is will anticipated soften over

to

the be course in the of region 2021, of with 11% stronger – 14% capital over the growth next five expected

years.

to return Forecasts in 2022.

for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over

10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be

true.

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


R E G I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

£425,000

£580,054

+0.9%

£309

£475,000

£628,351

+0.7%

£316

£352,000

£469,858

+4.0%

£240

£416,000

£562,046

+3.6%

£284

£441,000

£578,427

+2.7%

£277

£391,000

£506,446

+5.5%

£273

£700,000

£948,404

+3.8%

£469

£608,000

£840,700

+5.6%

£403

£831,000

£1,180,220

+7.2%

£492

£1,550,000

£2,547,002

+12.7%

£1,275

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE

PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is

the value over which the top 5%

of property sales occur. The chart

shows a rolling 12 month change

in the average price paid for

premium properties compared

to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

10%

7.5%

5%

2.5%

0%

-2.5%

NOV

2019

DEC

2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE

LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES

SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM

PRICE THRESHOLD

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,600

An individual premium price

threshold is calculated for each

property type based on sold

prices in the last 12 months. The

chart shows the average price paid

per square foot for all of these

premium properties.

£1,200

£800

£400

£1213

£677

£509 £504

£616

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


T R A N S A C T I O N S

A N D K EY P RI C E P O IN T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE COUNTRY

Chart shows a rolling 12 month

change in transactions compared

to the previous 12 month period

for all properties and those

priced at £1m or over.

ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

OCT

2019

NOV

2019

DEC

2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£234,572

£712,000

£1,078,520

£214,177

£750,180

£1,246,769

£182,874

£582,778

£944,828

£221,861

£558,057

£774,661

£361,192

£903,362

£1,321,090

£238,869

£703,109

£1,045,136

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in

the average price paid for all

properties sold compared to the

previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

2.5%

2%

1.5%

1%

0.5%

0%

NOV

2019

DEC

2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER

THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF

ALL PROPERTY SALES

ENGLAND & WALES

Average price paid per square

foot for all property transactions.

£400

£300

£200

£323

£204

£235

£277

£246

£100

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


A V A I L A B I L I T Y

A N D TIM E TO SE LL

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS

TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days

from when a property is first

marketed on Rightmove to

when the estate agent marks it

as “sold subject to contract”.

100

75

50

62 62 64

67

71

76

67

61

83

88

73

62

53

50 49

25

0

AUG

2019

SEP

2019

OCT

2019

NOV

2019

DEC

2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APRIL

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO

BUY PER AGENT

Average stock per agent

calculated by the average

number of properties an agent

has on Rightmove each day

across the month.

NATIONAL

50

40

30

20

10

0

AUG

2019

SEP

2019

OCT

2019

NOV

2019

DEC

2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APRIL

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

Source: Rightmove

T: +44 (0)207 079 1515

E: parklane@fineandcountry.com

fineandcountry.com

Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. Whilst every effort has been made to

ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any

nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction

of all or part of the report in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.

Report edited by Inform user and published on 01-12-2020.

Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures since March are lower than usual

due to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.

dataloft.co.uk

More magazines by this user
Similar magazines