Fine & Country National Housing Market Update | March 2021

DOMVSproperties

Springing into Spring
Spring beckons and pathways to end lockdown restrictions have been outlined across the UK, the roadmap to ‘normality’ a sharp contrast to a year ago. Consumer confidence is showing shoots of recovery and the Chancellor’s Budget provides continued support for those seeking to own their own home.

MARCH 2021

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE


K E Y S T A T S

E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES

£743,000 £1,114,358 10.17%

£612 £36.4bn 13,342

LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE

MORTGAGE APPROVALS 98,994 11.1% 40%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 121,640 27.2% 6.8%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £24.3 bn 16.6% 6.8%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 31,900 131.5% -9.2%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 35,260 154.6% 0.1%

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

2 0SPRINGING 1 8 - TH E YEINTO A R THACTION

AT WAS

Spring Although beckons the festive and pathways season is upon to end us, lockdown there is little restrictions seasonal have cheer been and ‘good outlined will across to all’ the

UK, evident the across roadmap the to political ‘normality’ arena. a Brexit sharp continues contrast to to a dominate year ago. the Consumer headlines confidence as all eyes is

showing await the shoots final outcome. of recovery Whatever and the the Chancellor’s conclusion, Budget there are provides sure to continued be implications support for for

those sterling seeking and the to economy. own their As own 2018 home

draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what

we can expect in 2019?

A CONFIDENCE BOOST

Consumer confidence in the economy rose to an elevenmonth

GLIMMERS high in February, OF SEASONAL no doubt bolstered CHEERby the impact

of the swift vaccine rollout across the UK. GfK report

that Throughout consumer 2018 views sales on volumes the economy across in the general housing and market their

personal have struggled, financial thanks situation to the both backdrop improved, of lower as did buyer their

willingness demand and to low make levels major of purchases. consumer confidence. This bodes well However, for

consumer latest data

spending from the

as Bank

restrictions of England

are indicates

lifted. Despite mortgage

the

economy approvals

shrinking in October

by were

9.9% over 4% higher

2020 than

(ONS), a year

the ago,

UK looks

while

the total value of lending hit its highest monthly figure since

set to avoid its first double dip recession since the 1970s.

the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the

additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took

place across the UK in October than in any month since July

MARKET 2017, while Rightmove ACTIVITY data CONTINUES

shows properties in 2018 to

date have taken an average of 61 days from the start of

Although marketing

many to being

expected sold-subject-to-contract,

activity in the housing one

market day

to

falter shorter during than the last start year of and 2021, an improvement with the Stamp on Duty the 65 deadline

days

too witnessed close to in benefit 2016. new buyers, the market continues to

show resilience. Sales volumes in January were 24.1% higher

than Despite in January the rise 2020, in the with UK an base estimated rate in the 121,640 summer, transactions

completed mortgage interest (seasonally rates adjusted); remain low. the UK highest Finance January report total

that

since at 2.23% 2007 the (HMRC). current Although average mortgage mortgage interest approvals rate were

is lower

3.7% than the lower rate than both in five December and ten 2020, years still ago, 98,994 3.14% mortgages

and 6.11%

were respectively.

approved, Adjusting

50% higher for inflation,

than in wages

January have

2020. risen

Gross

over

lending the past

was year,

the positive

highest news

monthly for household

figure since finances.

March 2016

(Bank of England). Zoopla report buyer demand in the six

weeks SENSE to AND mid-February SENSIBILITY was up 12.4% year on year, with

Rightmove seeing a 45% increase in visitors to its site in the

Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The

first week of February and enquiries up 18%. A lack of new

average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November,

buyers to the market, new seller numbers were 21% lower

the largest November fall since 2012 according to

at the start of February, continues to exert pressure on

Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated

prices. throughout

The average the year.

price Annual

of a house

property price

in growth

the UK across

is now

the

over UK in

£250,000 the year to

(UK September

HPI, Halifax).

was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a

year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index.

Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a

year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit

uncertainty.

BALANCING THE BOOKS

The Chancellor’s Budget offered a sober assessment of the

legacy Across of the the Covid-19 UK prime pandemic markets, and the despite average the price increase of property in

borrowing is down there a fraction were on few a immediate year ago. However, significant across tax changes.

many

The assets extension, 2018 until has the not end proved of September momentous. of the In the furlough

year to the

scheme end will of November support many, the the average economy price expected of gold has to fallen return

by

to its over pre-pandemic 1%, the stock level market by mid-2022, (FTSE 100) six months by 6%, while earlier the than

S&P

forecast Global in November.

Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite

fine wines and classic cars boasting small positive returns.

The Many extension commentators of the Stamp report Duty evidence Holiday of in England pent-up until demand the

end of for June higher is welcomed, priced properties, as is a 0% with SDLT prospective levy on properties

vendors

up to waiting £250,000 for more until the clarity end before of September they commit 2021. to A their new

government-backed purchase.

mortgage guarantee scheme is set to

launch on 1 April across the UK. The scheme will be available

to those A CRYSTAL seeking to purchase BALL up to £600,000 and will support

purchasers who require a 95% mortgage. Unlike many schemes,

Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with

support will be available to all purchasers and not restricted

a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK

to first-time buyers or new build homes.

and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark

Carney, has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a nodeal

Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average

PRIME house MARKETS

prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the

Office for Budget Responsibility point to employment levels

The continuing average price to rise of a in prime 2019, property along with across average the earnings, UK has risen

while

to £1.1 inflation million, is up predicted 10% year to edge on year. back Price to the performance government’s in the

2.0%

prime target. market This may currently well require outpacing a gradual the general rise in market, interest with

rates,

growth although of 8.5% the in current the year view to December. is that the base While rate HMRC will rise report

to

income just from 1.5 – residential 1.75% by 2021. property tax receipts fell by 27% year

on year in 2020, 10.6% more liable sales took place priced

£1 million+. Across the Homes housing over market, £1 million as per account 2018, for many 2.3% of all sales

recorded commentators

by the Land expect

Registry the

to wider

date UK

in 2020, market

compared to outperform

to

London. An average of independent forecasts predicts price

1.8% in 2019. With the UK remaining a location of choice for

growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In

buyers from overseas, activity once travel restrictions are

comparison, those commentating on the London market

lifted is anticipated to be buoyant.

anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling

prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to

be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.

Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over

10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be

true.

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


R E G I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

£450,000

£613,033

+7.1%

£316

£505,000

£673,630

+8.0%

£329

£366,000

£491,086

+6.7%

£247

£439,000

£587,628

+6.8%

£295

£467,000

£611,143

+7.9%

£285

£409,000

£531,419

+9.0%

£280

£734,000

£991,267

+8.1%

£478

£655,000

£903,687

+12.0%

£423

£873,000

£1,250,609

+12.8%

£508

£1,570,000

£2,532,418

+10.1%

£1,222

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE

PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is

the value over which the top 5%

of property sales occur. The chart

shows a rolling 12 month change

in the average price paid for

premium properties compared

to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

12.5%

10%

7.5%

5%

2.5%

0%

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE

LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES

SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM

PRICE THRESHOLD

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,600

An individual premium price

threshold is calculated for each

property type based on sold

prices in the last 12 months. The

chart shows the average price paid

per square foot for all of these

premium properties.

£1,200

£800

£400

£1150

£704

£526 £519

£612

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


T R A N S A C T I O N S

A N D K EY P RI C E P O IN T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE COUNTRY

Chart shows a rolling 12 month

change in transactions compared to

the previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+

10%

0%

PLEASE NOTE: Due to the pandemic,

Land Registry have a huge backlog of

transactions to be registered. Caution

should be taken when viewing this chart

as figures may show an exaggerated

decline. Housing market demand is

strong, the first week in February versus

2020 saw Rightmove visits up 45%, with

18% more enquiries and the number of

purchases agreed up by 7%.

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£242,658

£743,000

£1,114,358

£217,815

£750,093

£1,189,001

£187,784

£613,038

£993,911

£229,078

£585,991

£819,192

£374,780

£948,991

£1,390,301

£247,569

£742,921

£1,102,020

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in

the average price paid for all

properties sold compared to the

previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER

THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF

ALL PROPERTY SALES

ENGLAND & WALES

Average price paid per square

foot for all property transactions.

£400

£300

£200

£330

£211

£243

£285

£254

£100

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


A V A I L A B I L I T Y

A N D TIM E TO SE LL

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS

TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days

from when a property is first

marketed on Rightmove to

when the estate agent marks it

as “sold subject to contract”.

100

75

50

62 62 64

67

71

76

67

61

83

88

73

62

53

50 49

52

57

65

25

0

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020

APRILMAY

2020 2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG SEP OCT

2020 2020 2020

NOV DEC JAN

2020 2020 2021

Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO

BUY PER AGENT

Average stock per agent

calculated by the average

number of properties an agent

has on Rightmove each day

across the month.

NATIONAL

50

40

30

20

10

0

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020

APRIL MAY JUN

2020 2020 2020

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN

2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021

Source: Rightmove

T: +44 (0)207 079 1515

E: parklane@fineandcountry.com

fineandcountry.com

Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. Whilst every effort has been made to

ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any

nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction

of all or part of the report in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.

Report edited by Inform user and published on 03-03-2021.

Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due

to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.

dataloft.co.uk

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