Spring is traditionally the busiest time of year of the year for the housing market and 2021 is looking to be no exception. As lockdown restrictions start to ease, record demand and prolonged shortage of supply is sustaining prices, while consumer and industry continues to grow.
To make the most of the awakening in the housing market and the latest house price growth in the UK, book a valuation today.
APRIL 2021
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
K E Y S T A T S
E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES
£755,000 £1,132,532 11.20%
£617 £37.5bn 14,129
LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE
MORTGAGE APPROVALS 87,669 -2.3% 19.5%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 147,050 23.3% 48.5%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £27.7 bn 16.2% 19.9%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 29,980 -4.5% 27.1%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 44,030 27.6% 11.4%
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
M A R K E T O V E R V I E W
2 0 1 8 - SPRING TH E YEBLOOMS
A R TH AT WAS
Spring Although is traditionally the festive season the busiest is upon time us, of there is year little for seasonal the housing cheer market and ‘good and will 2021 to all’ is
looking evident to across be no the exception. political arena. As lockdown Brexit continues restrictions to dominate start to ease, the headlines record demand
as all eyes
and await a prolonged the final outcome. shortage Whatever of supply the is sustaining conclusion, prices, there while are sure consumer to be implications and industry
for
confidence sterling and continue the economy. to grow.
As 2018 draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what
we can expect in 2019?
AWAKENING
There is a spring in the step of many this April as the
restrictions GLIMMERS imposed OF SEASONAL for lockdown start CHEER to loosen. Families
and friends can meet, albeit with restrictions, the vaccine
rollout Throughout continues, 2018 and sales elements volumes of across the economy the housing are market set to
reopen have struggled, for the first thanks time to since the backdrop January. Consumer of lower buyer confidence
is demand at its highest and low level levels since of before consumer Lockdown confidence. One However, in March
2020 latest and data business from the activity Bank of across England the indicates UK private mortgage sector is
recording approvals
its in October
fastest rate were
of growth 4% higher
since than
August a year
(GfK ago,
and
while
IHS the total
Markit). value
Both of lending
consumer hit
sentiment its highest monthly
and business figure
growth
since
the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the
have proved stronger than many expected, indicative of the
additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took
view that the economy has proved far more resilient during
place across the UK in October than in any month since July
the latest lockdown than during the first.
2017, while Rightmove data shows properties in 2018 to
date have taken an average of 61 days from the start of
marketing to being sold-subject-to-contract, one day
DEMAND shorter than last SOARS
year and an improvement on the 65 days
witnessed in 2016.
Against this backdrop activity in the housing market
continues Despite the apace, rise in bolstered the UK base by the rate extension in the summer, to the Stamp
Duty mortgage Holiday interest across rates both remain England low. and UK Wales Finance and report the new
that
95% at 2.23% mortgage the current guarantee average scheme. mortgage Zoopla interest report rate that
is lower
average than the buyer rate both demand five and since ten the years start ago, of 2021 3.14% is 13% and 6.11% higher
than respectively. average Adjusting levels across for the inflation, whole wages of 2020, have with risen demand
over
in the March past year, 34% positive higher than news the for same household period finances. a year ago
(Rightmove). More than 87,600 mortgages were approved
in SENSE February AND 2021, SENSIBILITY
over 19% higher year-on-year. Gross
lending was at its highest monthly figure since March 2016,
Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The
nearly five years ago. The Royal Institute of Chartered
average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November,
Surveyors report the sales rate per surveyor in February
the largest November fall since 2012 according to
was at its highest level since May 2016, the sales to stock
Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated
ratio at its highest in over a decade.
throughout the year. Annual house price growth across the
UK in the year to September was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a
year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index.
Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a
year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit
uncertainty.
A SELLER’S MARKET
While demand levels remain high, new supply to the market
remains Across constrained. the UK prime Zoopla markets, report the total average supply price in 2021 of property to
date is down a 13% fraction versus on the a year 2020 ago. average, However, although across there
many
are tentative assets 2018 signs has of not improvement. proved momentous. New listings In at the the year start
to the
of March end of were November only 5% the lower average year on price year of compared gold has fallen to a
by
20% over fall in 1%, February the stock (Rightmove). market (FTSE Scarce 100) supply by 6%, supports while the price
S&P
growth: Global the Luxury average Index price is of 5.5% a property lower than coming a year to the ago, market
despite
in March fine wines is up in and every classic region cars of boasting the UK small except positive the North
returns.
West. Many One commentators in every nine properties report evidence is currently of pent-up selling demand for
more for than higher its initial priced asking properties, price, the with highest prospective level since vendors August
(Propertymark). waiting for more Price clarity growth before in the they prime commit markets to their continues
to outperform purchase. the market as a whole; average prices are over
11% higher year on year. The average price of a premium
property A CRYSTAL across all property BALL types, with the exception of
semi-detached homes, is now over £1 million.
Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with
a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK
and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark
CONSTRUCTION Carney, has reiterated ACCELERATES
his forecast that in the event of a nodeal
Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average
There was a significant uptick in construction activity during
house prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the
the final Office
quarter for Budget
of 2020, Responsibility
with the number point to
of employment
new private
levels
homes continuing
started in to
England rise in 2019,
up 17% along
year with
on average
year and earnings,
completions
while
rising inflation 11% (MHCLG, is predicted 2021). to Over edge 44,000 back to private the government’s new homes
2.0%
were target. completed This may in the well final require quarter, a gradual the highest rise in Q4 interest figure rates, ever
recorded. although Despite the current Lockdown view Three, is that activity the base has rate continued
will rise to
into just 2021. 1.5 Barbour – 1.75% ABI by 2021. have reported that £3.5bn of residential
contracts were awarded in the first two months of 2021.
Almost Across half of the home housing movers market, will as consider per 2018, buying manya new build
property; commentators energy efficiency expect the and wider the peace UK market of mind to afforded outperform by
warranty London.
and An
insurance average
guarantees of independent
are the forecasts
key considerations
predicts price
(Dataloft, growth
Property across the
Academy, UK will
2020). be 2.2%
Throughout during 2019.
2020 In
around
comparison, those commentating on the London market
one in every 12 sales was a new build property, attracting a
anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling
price premium of up to 20% over re-sale properties.
prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to
be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.
Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over
10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be
true.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3
R E G I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
£464,000
£633,635
+10.4%
£320
£515,000
£682,636
+9.4%
£332
£370,000
£493,329
+6.5%
£247
£450,000
£597,462
+9.0%
£297
£475,000
£615,831
+7.7%
£288
£414,000
£538,845
+10.6%
£283
£743,000
£1,001,554
+9.2%
£482
£675,000
£922,101
+14.1%
£430
£895,000
£1,282,090
+15.5%
£513
£1,580,000
£2,550,693
+9.3%
£1,215
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
N A T I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE
PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is
the value over which the top 5%
of property sales occur. The chart
shows a rolling 12 month change
in the average price paid for
premium properties compared
to the previous 12 month.
ENGLAND & WALES
12.5%
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0%
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
JAN
2021
FEB
2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE
LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES
SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM
PRICE THRESHOLD
ENGLAND & WALES
£1,600
An individual premium price
threshold is calculated for each
property type based on sold
prices in the last 12 months. The
chart shows the average price paid
per square foot for all of these
premium properties.
£1,200
£800
£400
£1144
£714
£531 £528
£617
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5
T R A N S A C T I O N S
A N D K EY P RI C E POIN T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE COUNTRY
Chart shows a rolling 12 month
change in transactions compared to
the previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+
10%
0%
PLEASE NOTE: Due to the pandemic,
Land Registry have a huge backlog of
transactions to be registered. Caution
should be taken when viewing this chart
as figures may show an exaggerated
decline. Housing market demand remains
strong; in the first week in March 2021
versus 2020, Rightmove report buyer
demand was up 34% and sales up 12%.
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
JAN
2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£247,548
£755,000
£1,132,532
£219,712
£749,464
£1,177,226
£191,065
£627,756
£1,010,847
£233,408
£599,084
£831,230
£381,938
£966,535
£1,427,740
£252,962
£756,762
£1,126,001
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
N A T I O N A L
M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in
the average price paid for all
properties sold compared to the
previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
JAN
2021
FEB
2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER
THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF
ALL PROPERTY SALES
ENGLAND & WALES
Average price paid per square
foot for all property transactions.
£400
£300
£200
£330
£212
£244
£286
£254
£100
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7
A V A I L A B I L I T Y
A N D TIM E TO SE LL
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS
TO SELL
NATIONAL
Average number of days
from when a property is first
marketed on Rightmove to
when the estate agent marks it
as “sold subject to contract”.
100
75
50
62 62 64 67 71 76
83 88 73
67 61
62
65 53 50 49 52 57 60
25
0
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRILMAY
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021
Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO
BUY PER AGENT
Average stock per agent
calculated by the average
number of properties an agent
has on Rightmove each day
across the month.
NATIONAL
50
40
30
20
10
0
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRILMAY
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021
Source: Rightmove
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515
E: parklane@fineandcountry.com
fineandcountry.com
Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. Whilst every effort has been made to
ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any
nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction
of all or part of the report in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.
Report edited by Inform user and published on 01-04-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due
to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.
dataloft.co.uk
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