Fine & Country National Housing Market Update | April 2021

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Spring is traditionally the busiest time of year of the year for the housing market and 2021 is looking to be no exception. As lockdown restrictions start to ease, record demand and prolonged shortage of supply is sustaining prices, while consumer and industry continues to grow.

To make the most of the awakening in the housing market and the latest house price growth in the UK, book a valuation today.

APRIL 2021

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE


K E Y S T A T S

E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES

£755,000 £1,132,532 11.20%

£617 £37.5bn 14,129

LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE

MORTGAGE APPROVALS 87,669 -2.3% 19.5%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 147,050 23.3% 48.5%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £27.7 bn 16.2% 19.9%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 29,980 -4.5% 27.1%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 44,030 27.6% 11.4%

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

2 0 1 8 - SPRING TH E YEBLOOMS

A R TH AT WAS

Spring Although is traditionally the festive season the busiest is upon time us, of there is year little for seasonal the housing cheer market and ‘good and will 2021 to all’ is

looking evident to across be no the exception. political arena. As lockdown Brexit continues restrictions to dominate start to ease, the headlines record demand

as all eyes

and await a prolonged the final outcome. shortage Whatever of supply the is sustaining conclusion, prices, there while are sure consumer to be implications and industry

for

confidence sterling and continue the economy. to grow.

As 2018 draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what

we can expect in 2019?

AWAKENING

There is a spring in the step of many this April as the

restrictions GLIMMERS imposed OF SEASONAL for lockdown start CHEER to loosen. Families

and friends can meet, albeit with restrictions, the vaccine

rollout Throughout continues, 2018 and sales elements volumes of across the economy the housing are market set to

reopen have struggled, for the first thanks time to since the backdrop January. Consumer of lower buyer confidence

is demand at its highest and low level levels since of before consumer Lockdown confidence. One However, in March

2020 latest and data business from the activity Bank of across England the indicates UK private mortgage sector is

recording approvals

its in October

fastest rate were

of growth 4% higher

since than

August a year

(GfK ago,

and

while

IHS the total

Markit). value

Both of lending

consumer hit

sentiment its highest monthly

and business figure

growth

since

the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the

have proved stronger than many expected, indicative of the

additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took

view that the economy has proved far more resilient during

place across the UK in October than in any month since July

the latest lockdown than during the first.

2017, while Rightmove data shows properties in 2018 to

date have taken an average of 61 days from the start of

marketing to being sold-subject-to-contract, one day

DEMAND shorter than last SOARS

year and an improvement on the 65 days

witnessed in 2016.

Against this backdrop activity in the housing market

continues Despite the apace, rise in bolstered the UK base by the rate extension in the summer, to the Stamp

Duty mortgage Holiday interest across rates both remain England low. and UK Wales Finance and report the new

that

95% at 2.23% mortgage the current guarantee average scheme. mortgage Zoopla interest report rate that

is lower

average than the buyer rate both demand five and since ten the years start ago, of 2021 3.14% is 13% and 6.11% higher

than respectively. average Adjusting levels across for the inflation, whole wages of 2020, have with risen demand

over

in the March past year, 34% positive higher than news the for same household period finances. a year ago

(Rightmove). More than 87,600 mortgages were approved

in SENSE February AND 2021, SENSIBILITY

over 19% higher year-on-year. Gross

lending was at its highest monthly figure since March 2016,

Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The

nearly five years ago. The Royal Institute of Chartered

average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November,

Surveyors report the sales rate per surveyor in February

the largest November fall since 2012 according to

was at its highest level since May 2016, the sales to stock

Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated

ratio at its highest in over a decade.

throughout the year. Annual house price growth across the

UK in the year to September was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a

year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index.

Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a

year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit

uncertainty.

A SELLER’S MARKET

While demand levels remain high, new supply to the market

remains Across constrained. the UK prime Zoopla markets, report the total average supply price in 2021 of property to

date is down a 13% fraction versus on the a year 2020 ago. average, However, although across there

many

are tentative assets 2018 signs has of not improvement. proved momentous. New listings In at the the year start

to the

of March end of were November only 5% the lower average year on price year of compared gold has fallen to a

by

20% over fall in 1%, February the stock (Rightmove). market (FTSE Scarce 100) supply by 6%, supports while the price

S&P

growth: Global the Luxury average Index price is of 5.5% a property lower than coming a year to the ago, market

despite

in March fine wines is up in and every classic region cars of boasting the UK small except positive the North

returns.

West. Many One commentators in every nine properties report evidence is currently of pent-up selling demand for

more for than higher its initial priced asking properties, price, the with highest prospective level since vendors August

(Propertymark). waiting for more Price clarity growth before in the they prime commit markets to their continues

to outperform purchase. the market as a whole; average prices are over

11% higher year on year. The average price of a premium

property A CRYSTAL across all property BALL types, with the exception of

semi-detached homes, is now over £1 million.

Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with

a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK

and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark

CONSTRUCTION Carney, has reiterated ACCELERATES

his forecast that in the event of a nodeal

Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average

There was a significant uptick in construction activity during

house prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the

the final Office

quarter for Budget

of 2020, Responsibility

with the number point to

of employment

new private

levels

homes continuing

started in to

England rise in 2019,

up 17% along

year with

on average

year and earnings,

completions

while

rising inflation 11% (MHCLG, is predicted 2021). to Over edge 44,000 back to private the government’s new homes

2.0%

were target. completed This may in the well final require quarter, a gradual the highest rise in Q4 interest figure rates, ever

recorded. although Despite the current Lockdown view Three, is that activity the base has rate continued

will rise to

into just 2021. 1.5 Barbour – 1.75% ABI by 2021. have reported that £3.5bn of residential

contracts were awarded in the first two months of 2021.

Almost Across half of the home housing movers market, will as consider per 2018, buying manya new build

property; commentators energy efficiency expect the and wider the peace UK market of mind to afforded outperform by

warranty London.

and An

insurance average

guarantees of independent

are the forecasts

key considerations

predicts price

(Dataloft, growth

Property across the

Academy, UK will

2020). be 2.2%

Throughout during 2019.

2020 In

around

comparison, those commentating on the London market

one in every 12 sales was a new build property, attracting a

anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling

price premium of up to 20% over re-sale properties.

prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to

be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.

Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over

10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be

true.

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


R E G I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

£464,000

£633,635

+10.4%

£320

£515,000

£682,636

+9.4%

£332

£370,000

£493,329

+6.5%

£247

£450,000

£597,462

+9.0%

£297

£475,000

£615,831

+7.7%

£288

£414,000

£538,845

+10.6%

£283

£743,000

£1,001,554

+9.2%

£482

£675,000

£922,101

+14.1%

£430

£895,000

£1,282,090

+15.5%

£513

£1,580,000

£2,550,693

+9.3%

£1,215

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE

PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is

the value over which the top 5%

of property sales occur. The chart

shows a rolling 12 month change

in the average price paid for

premium properties compared

to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

12.5%

10%

7.5%

5%

2.5%

0%

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

FEB

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE

LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES

SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM

PRICE THRESHOLD

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,600

An individual premium price

threshold is calculated for each

property type based on sold

prices in the last 12 months. The

chart shows the average price paid

per square foot for all of these

premium properties.

£1,200

£800

£400

£1144

£714

£531 £528

£617

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


T R A N S A C T I O N S

A N D K EY P RI C E POIN T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE COUNTRY

Chart shows a rolling 12 month

change in transactions compared to

the previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+

10%

0%

PLEASE NOTE: Due to the pandemic,

Land Registry have a huge backlog of

transactions to be registered. Caution

should be taken when viewing this chart

as figures may show an exaggerated

decline. Housing market demand remains

strong; in the first week in March 2021

versus 2020, Rightmove report buyer

demand was up 34% and sales up 12%.

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£247,548

£755,000

£1,132,532

£219,712

£749,464

£1,177,226

£191,065

£627,756

£1,010,847

£233,408

£599,084

£831,230

£381,938

£966,535

£1,427,740

£252,962

£756,762

£1,126,001

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in

the average price paid for all

properties sold compared to the

previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

FEB

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER

THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF

ALL PROPERTY SALES

ENGLAND & WALES

Average price paid per square

foot for all property transactions.

£400

£300

£200

£330

£212

£244

£286

£254

£100

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


A V A I L A B I L I T Y

A N D TIM E TO SE LL

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS

TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days

from when a property is first

marketed on Rightmove to

when the estate agent marks it

as “sold subject to contract”.

100

75

50

62 62 64 67 71 76

83 88 73

67 61

62

65 53 50 49 52 57 60

25

0

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRILMAY

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021

Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO

BUY PER AGENT

Average stock per agent

calculated by the average

number of properties an agent

has on Rightmove each day

across the month.

NATIONAL

50

40

30

20

10

0

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRILMAY

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021

Source: Rightmove

T: +44 (0)207 079 1515

E: parklane@fineandcountry.com

fineandcountry.com

Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. Whilst every effort has been made to

ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any

nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction

of all or part of the report in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.

Report edited by Inform user and published on 01-04-2021.

Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due

to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.

dataloft.co.uk

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