Kentucky Derby 2021 - XBGlobal.com

WAGER GUIDE
KENTUCKY DERBY
MAY01/2021
CHURCHILL
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HANDICAP THE DERBY
LIKE EDDIE OLCZYK
?
DID YOU KNOW?
We asked renowned 1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which
handicapping angles he applies when analyzing the Kentucky Derby. Now, for the
first time, you can reconstruct Edzo’s approach and put it to work for yourself by
combining forces with the 1/ST BET app.
The 1/ST BET app uses more than
50 factors in evaluating each horse
in a race, drawing from a library of
more than 200,000 previous races
to match past success with future
success. 1/ST BET automatically
matches and ranks the proven, most
successful factors in each race, while
it also gives you the ability to select
your own set of factors to make
personalized, artificial intelligencebased
selections in mere seconds.
Olczyk’s keys center on a horse’s speed to the mile marker at the head of the Kentucky Derby stretch, pedigree for the distance
and how weather and conditions may impact his selections. “Jockey and trainer stats aren’t for me in the Kentucky Derby,”
Olczyk said. “At that level, they’re all capable with the right horse.”
THE MILE MARKER
“Where are you when the lead horse gets to the one-mile point in the mile and
one-quarter race? That’s the key,” Olczyk explained. “The last seven Derby
winners were first, second or third at that point and four of the last seven were
on the lead, which I find very interesting. The ability to be up close, part of the
pace, matters. Consider a horse’s body of work in terms of speed and pace
figures, not just his last start, because each horse may or may not have been
as hard-asked in their most recent start by trainer’s choice.”
1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
BEST LIFETIME SPEED
BEST SPEED LAST 3
AVERAGE SPEED LAST 3
AVG. LAST 3 E1 PACE
AVG. LAST 3 E2 PACE
AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES
PEDIGREE POINTS
“The last quarter-mile, once in position, is about stamina. None of these
horses have been a mile and one-quarter previously, which is part of the
Derby’s lore. That’s why pedigree matters to me.”
WEATHER OR NOT
“Wet tracks have been a Derby constant in recent years. If you’re handicapping
or betting ahead, you have to at least plan for the scenario. I’m constantly
checking up on it. Not every horse has run on off tracks, so bloodlines can tell
us who might enjoy it.”
1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING
DIRT PEDIGREE RATING
1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
BEST SPEED OFF TRACK
MUD PEDIGREE RATING
Olczyk’s final pointer, stay flexible. “Research is great, but don’t forget the eye test,” he reminded. “Watch what’s going on Derby Day,
how the track is playing, what’s been working for you that day. Go back and reassess which factors you’re putting into your decisions.”
Note: The 1/ST BET selections for the big race will be published in our updated Kentucky Derby Wager Guide (available April 29), along with Edzo’s final picks!
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FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY
KENTUCKY DERBY 2016-2020
We searched the 1/ST BET archives to re-examine the last five editions of the Kentucky Derby. See where the winners ranked
best in their respective fields in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when
using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the “Run for the Roses.” Learn More.
2020
WINNER: AUTHENTIC
RANKED FIRST IN 9 FACTORS
HORSES BEATEN %
TRAINER 6 MO. WIN %
JOCKEY WIN % 2 YRS. RACE TYPE
TRAINER CURRENT YEAR
LAST E2 PACE
AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE
AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE
DIST. WORKED SINCE LAST RACE
TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
TIZ THE LAW (17), AUTHENTIC (9),
MAX PLAYER (8)
2019
WINNER: COUNTRY HOUSE
RANKED FIRST IN 3 FACTORS:
JOCKEY 1 YR. WIN %
JOCKEY 6 MO. WIN %
AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIME
2018 - CONTINUED
JOCKEY WIN % 2 YRS. RACE TYPE
WIN %
TRAINER CURRENT YR.
LAST LATE PACE
JOCKEY 1 YR. WIN %
AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE
AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
JUSTIFY (15), GOOD MAGIC (4)
2017
WINNER: ALWAYS DREAMING
RANKED FIRST IN 3 FACTORS:
IN THE MONEY %
JOCKEY CURRENT YEAR
AVERAGE LATE PACE
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
CLASSIC EMPIRE (7), GORMLEY (5)
2016
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
GAME WINNER (8),
MAXIMUM SECURITY (7)
WINNER: NYQUIST
RANKED FIRST IN 5 FACTORS
AVG. OFF-TRACK EARNINGS
AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS
2018
IN THE MONEY %
WIN %
WINNER: JUSTIFY
HORSES DEFEATED %
RANKED FIRST IN 15 FACTORS
SPEED LAST RACE
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
AVG. SPEED LAST 3
EXAGGERATOR (7), NYQUIST (5),
AVG. SPEED BEST 2 OF LAST 3 CREATOR (5), OSCAR NOMINATED (5)
BEST SPEED LAST 3
BEST LIFETIME SPEED
FACTOR CATEGORIES:
BEST SPEED FAST TRACK
= PERFORMANCE
BEST SPEED OFF TRACK
= RESULTS
HORSES DEFEATED %
= JOCKEY+ TRAINER
Authentic (2020)
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KENTUCKY DERBY
WAGERING FACTS
Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Kentucky Derby events.
WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS
(Last 25 Years, Odds to $1)
Win Odds: Average: 14.10-to-1
High: 65.20 (Country House, 2019)
Low: 2.30 (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000; Nyquist 2016)
Notable: After 6 straight favorites, the past 2 Derby winners have
netted 65-1 and 8-1 returns.
Place Odds: Average: 17.15-to-1
High: 71.60 (Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: 0.70 (Tiz the Law, 2020)
Notable: Last year, Tiz the Law became the third Derby favorite to finish
second since 2000 (joining Bodemeister ‘12 and Empire Maker ‘03).
Show Odds: Average: 12.04
High: 46.50 (Mr. Big News, 2020)
Low: 2.70 (Indian Charlie, 1998)
Notable: In 2020, Mr. Big News offered the longest price to finish
third in the Derby since 86-1 bomber Mane Minister in 1991.
EXACTA PAYOFFS
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $890.41
High: $9,814.80 (Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: $30.60 (Nyquist-Exaggerator, 2016)
Notable: The last 2 Derby exactas provided the second-highest and
second-lowest returns of the past 20 years – $3,009.60 in 2019 and
$41 a year ago.
TRIFECTA PAYOFFS
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $11,722.60
High: $133,134.80 (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex, 2005)
Low: $173.40 (Nyquist-Exaggerator-Gun Runner, 2016)
Notable: Last year’s trifecta paid nearly 64 times the exacta,
thanks to 46-1 shot Mr. Big News in third.
SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS
(Since 1996, $1 Payoffs)
Average: $74,922.77
High: $864,253.50 (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex-
Don’t Get Mad, 2005)
Low: $350.00 (Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free House-Pulpit, 1997)
Notable: Last year’s superfecta was the first to offer a 10-cent wagering
minimum, creating a modest $792.58 dime payoff ($7925.80 for $1,
only about 1/10th the historical average). $1 minimum returns this year.
DERBY FAVORITES IN POINTS’ SYSTEM ERA (2013-PRESENT)
Year Favorite Odds ($1) Fin.
2020 Tiz the Law .70 2nd
2019 Improbable 4.00 4th
2018 Justify 2.90 1st
2017 Always Dreaming 4.70 1st
2016 Nyquist 2.30 1st
2015 American Pharoah 2.90 1st
2014 California Chrome 2.50 1st
2013 Orb 5.40 1st
DERBY FAVORITES BY DECADE
2020s 0-for-1
2010s 6-for-10
2000s 4-for-10
1990s 0-for-10
1980s 0-for-10
1970s 6-for-10
HIGHEST-PRICED DERBY FAVORITES IN HISTORY
(Odds to $1)
Odds Horse Year Fin.
6.30 Lookin At Lucky 2010 6th
6.00 Harlan’s Holiday 2002 7th
5.50 Sweetnorthernsaint 2006 7th
5.40 Orb 2013 1st
5.20 Dialed In 2011 8th
4.90 Street Sense 2007 1st
4.80 General Challenge/ 1999 5th
Excellent Meeting
4.70 Always Dreaming 2017 1st
4.40 Prairie Bayou 1993 2nd
4.20 Bodemeister 2012 2nd
4.10 Smarty Jones 2004 1st
HIGHEST-PRICED DERBY RUNNERS IN SUPERFECTA
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds Horse Year Fin.
85.10 Instilled Regard 2018 4th
71.60 Closing Argument 2005 2nd
65.20 Country House 2019 1st
50.60 Mine That Bird 2009 1st
50.30 Giacomo 2005 1st
46.50 Mr. Big News 2020 3rd
41.70 Limehouse 2004 4th
40.00 Battle of Midway 2017 3rd
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KENTUCKY DERBY
EXPERT PICKS
We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s first jewel in the
Triple Crown. Check back in our updated Kentucky Derby Wager Guide on April 29 for final selections.
JEFF
SIEGEL
JOHN
DESANTIS
MICHELLE
YU
NAOMI
TUKKER
@jsiegelracing
@XBJohnnyD
@themichelleyu
@NaomiTukker
ROCK YOUR WORLD
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
KNOWN AGENDA
HOT ROD CHARLIE
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
HIGHLY MOTIVATED
ROCK YOUR WORLD
DYNAMIC ONE
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
ROCK YOUR WORLD
KNOWN AGENDA
MEDINA SPIRIT
HOT ROD CHARLIE
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
ROCK YOUR WORLD
KNOWN AGENDA
JEREMY
PLONK
TOM
QUIGLEY
MILLIE
BALL
RON
NICOLETTI
@Horseplayernow
@quigleys_corner
@camillayakteen
@RONIC17
KNOWN AGENDA
HIGHLY MOTIVATED
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
DYNAMIC ONE
HELIUM
MEDINA SPIRIT
HOT ROD CHARLIE
ROCK YOUR WORLD
KNOWN AGENDA
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
HOT ROD CHARLIE
ROCK YOUR WORLD
ROCK YOUR WORLD
KNOWN AGENDA
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
SOUP AND SANDWICH
CLAUDIA
SPADARO
MATT
DINERMAN
ZOE
CADMAN
JON
WHITE
@claudiaspadaro
@3coltshandicap
@zoecadman
@PostTimeJon
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
KNOWN AGENDA
ROCK YOUR WORLD
HIGHLY MOTIVATED
HOT ROD CHARLIE
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
SUPER STOCK
ROCK YOUR WORLD
DYNAMIC ONE
HOT ROD CHARLIE
SUPER STOCK
SOUP AND SANDWICH
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
ROCK YOUR WORLD
KNOWN AGENDA
HOT ROD CHARLIE
PETER
LURIE
DUSTIN
FABIAN
GEORGE
ORTUZAR
EDDIE
OLCZYK
@Peterlurievo
@1STBET
@georgeortuzar
@1STBET
KNOWN AGENDA
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
HOT ROD CHARLIE
MANDALOUN
ROCK YOUR WORLD
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
HIGHLY MOTIVATED
HOT ROD CHARLIE
HOT ROD CHARLIE
ROCK YOUR WORLD
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
MEDINA SPIRIT
EDZO’S PICKS WILL
APPEAR IN APRIL 29
UPDATED GUIDE.
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XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Millie Ball & Michelle Yu
The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race, and yet the formula for eyeing the winner based on morning workouts remains the
same, according to XBTV analyst Millie Ball: Good energy + fluid stride + focused demeanor.
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
ESSENTIAL QUALITY 4/17 CD 5F :59.60 (4/40)
ZOE CADMAN: Undefeated son of Tapit has certainly been on a good run of late. His race at
Keeneland was a measured one while not taking too much out of him just four weeks before the
Derby. He does own a win over the CD strip, which is key, but ... I have to say I thought his first work
after the Blue Grass, while not bad, was not the best we have seen from him. Tracking the 2-for-8
gelding Spa City (most recently last in an allowance race at Oaklawn), he looked primed to run right
by him at the wire, but really never got by him even in the gallop-out. I would have liked to have seen
more in the penultimate work for a champion with only two starts under his belt this year.
ROCK YOUR WORLD 4/17 SA 5 F 59.60 (6/72)
MICHELLE YU: Rock Your World worked outside of company April 17 as is his normal routine. He
was always in the bridle and much the best. This was improvement this week for a horse who
sometimes needs a real sousing to find his best stride in the mornings.
KNOWN AGENDA 4/16 CD 5F 1:00.40 (9/36)
SAINTHOOD 4/16 CD 5F 1:00.40 (9/36)
MILLIE BALL: Todd Pletcher appears to be replicating the training schedule he used for 2017
Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming for his most recent Florida Derby
winner Known Agenda. He and Jeff Ruby runner-up Sainthood both returned to the track to
publish a work 13 days after their final prep and were then given a stiff 5-furlong drill together
seven days later on April 16. If Pletcher continues to mirror Always Dreaming’s timetable, expect
a 5F work from both contenders April 23, which will be eight days prior to the race. One change
Todd has made this year is choosing to ship his runners to Churchill Downs a week earlier than
normal to post their penultimate works. He said he paired up Known Agenda up with Sainthood,
“because of the spacing of their last race.” Known Agenda appeared to travel smoother of the
two colts, never blobbing once. Both finished on even terms although jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. did tap
Known Agenda on the neck a couple of times to keep him on task. Interestingly, the published
time 1:00.40 was a 5-furlong personal best for both sophomores since arriving in training.
Evidently they are continuing to progress. My preference is Known Agenda. I mentioned prior
to the Florida Derby that stamina is his strength. He has an extremely efficient way of moving,
coupled with a pedigree for distance, and the blinkers have made him more tactical,
all ingredients for Kentucky Derby success.
HOT ROD CHARLIE 4/17 SA 6F 1:14.20 (5/6)
ZOE CADMAN: The son of Oxbow may be flying under the radar, even after winning the Louisiana
Derby. Losing his jock Joel Rosario won’t help, but will add to his price. Working in company with
4-year-old claimer Itsthattime (recently second for $20k), he tracked him all the way to the
eighth-pole under Flavien Prat and cruised by him to gallop out a good mile. Nothing flashy, but
his long, easy stride should not be a problem at Churchill Downs. Good work for a colt coming
right at just the right time.
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XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Milie Ball & Michelle Yu
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
MEDINA SPIRIT 4/17 SA 5F 1:00.00 (4/43)
ZOE CADMAN: Working in company with Paint Me Lucky (an 0-6 maiden), this was his first work
back since running second in the Santa Anita Derby. The son of Protonico looked good tracking
his company and drawing off down the lane with a bit of niggling; a solid work from a colt who
leaves his heart on the track every time. Not sure the pace scenario or the distance will help this
hard-trying colt, especially with several hard races of late.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED 4/18 KEE 4F :47.20 (1/27)
MICHELLE YU: In his normal spot inside a workmate, he was aggressive with his ears pinned, but
always in hand. Highly Motivated looked super-fit and intense for the entirety.
MIDNIGHT BOURBON 4/19 CD 5F :59.80 (1/13)
MILLIE BALL: The video posted on social media of Midnight Bourbon getting loose on the
backside April 19 (here) deserved more attention than his bullet work posted earlier that morning.
It came across as rather a poorly matched, erratic team drill. Midnight Bourbon’s workmate left
the pole a length in front and no sooner had his company begun to track in behind, the lead
horse tapped on the brakes, at a crucial point, causing the whole tempo of the work to change.
The Louisiana Derby runner-up got aggressive when asked to slow in order to remain in tandem,
and it was all his rider could do to hold him until the stretch. It was hard to tell if horse or rider
gave up the ghost, but Midnight Bourbon found his stride in the last two furlongs and, despite the
expended energy, put in a decent gallop-out.
MANDALOUN 4/17 CD 6F 1:11.40 (1/3)
MILLIE BALL: Mandaloun’s 6-furlong breeze April 17 flashed me back to the morning of August
23, 2020 when Thousand Words worked at Del Mar, 13 days prior to his intended run in the
Kentucky Derby. Both 3-year-olds were equally aggressive leaving the pole with company, both
riders had to lean hard against their mouths for 3 furlongs before they conceded and settled
for the remainder of the work. And in both instances, it took its toll on the gallop-out with each
colt needing taps from their riders to stay the course. Thousand Words’ eagerness on the Triple
Crown trail was his demise, and I fear the same for Mandaloun.
LIKE THE KING 4/17 KEE 6F 1:12.80 (1/3)
MICHELLE YU: Working with classy company (Canadian sprint champ Artie’s Princess), he was
ultra-aggressive in a come-from-behind move, dragging Drayden Van Dyke even and to the front.
He geared way down and the mate was asked to keep up. Not a perfect work, but done
with something left.
Video provided by XBTV, the home of the latest workouts, analysis and more this Triple Crown
Season and every other race day of the year. Additional video courtesy Kentucky Derby & Keeneland.
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XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Milie Ball & Michelle Yu
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
SOUP AND SANDWICH 4/17 CD 5F :59.80 (7/40)
MILLIE BALL: Soup and Sandwich worked professionally in his 5-furlong drill April 17 at Churchill.
He made up ground on his target, and passed the workmate comfortably while keeping to his
correct lead changes throughout the work, something I was keen to see after his runner-up
performance in the Florida Derby, where he ran the entire length of the stretch on his left lead,
barring the last 5 strides. Given a long rein by the rider from start to finish in this work, the colt
appears a very tactical ride and seemed obliging when asked to gallop-out all the way around to
the backside. I liked the energy he was able to sustain.
HELIUM 4/16 CD 5F (GATE) 1:01.80 (28/36)
ZOE CADMAN: Unraced since winning the Tampa Bay Derby March 6 with an 84 Beyer, trainer
Mark Casse opted to work this son of Ironicus out of the gate April 16. That’s a good move, as this
always adds to fitness and gets their minds on running. Nothing wrong with the work or his action
over the CD strip (his second move since coming from Florida). The only question really is, “Is
he good enough?” Would have to see something amazing in his next work to make him a major
contender. But, hey, it’s the Derby and anything can happen.
WRITE YOUR NOTES HERE:
Video provided by XBTV, the home of the latest workouts, analysis and more this Triple Crown
Season and every other race day of the year. Additional video courtesy Kentucky Derby & Keeneland.
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KENTUCKY DERBY
NEED-TO-KNOW
RACE DATE: SATURDAY, MAY 1
ENTRIES/POST POSITION DRAW: TUESDAY, APRIL 27
FIRST RACE POST TIME:
10:30 A.M. ET
KENTUCKY DERBY POST TIME: 6:57 P.M. ET
WATCH FREE AND WAGER:
ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP & XPRESSBET.COM
TELEVISION:
NBCSN, 12:30-2:30 PM ET // NBC, 2:30-7:30 PM ET
WAGERING NOTES:
OAKS-DERBY DAILY DOUBLE & TWO-DAY PICK 6 (FRI/SAT)
DERBY DAY STAKES LINEUP
Grade 1 Kentucky Derby $3,000,000 3YO 1-1/4 miles
Grade 1 Turf Classic $1,000,000 4&UP 1-1/8 miles (turf)
Grade 1 Derby City Distaff $500,000 4&UP FM 7 furlongs
Grade 1 Churchill Downs $500,000 4&UP 7 furlongs
Grade 2 Pat Day Mile $500,000 3YO 1 mile
Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile $500,000 4&UP FM 1 mile (turf)
Grade 2 American Turf $500,000 3YO 1-1/16 miles (turf)
DOWNLOAD OUR FREE GUIDE UPDATE APRIL 29
Check back Thursday, April 29 at Xpressbet.com and 1st.com/bet for your free Kentucky Derby Wager Guide update.
Our expert racing analysts will have the latest information and any up-to-the-day changes. Plus, we’ll have these
items exclusively in the updated Wager Guide:
• Eddie Olczyk’s Kentucky Derby Day Best Bets
• Brent Musburger’s Kentucky Derby Race Analysis
• 1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence Kentucky Derby Win Projections
• 1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence Full-Card Selections
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