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National Housing Market Update | May 2021

Read the latest national housing update from Fine & Country. A year ago, the property market was in the midst of full lockdown; a year on and the market is hitting new heights. Annual property price growth is at its strongest in over six years (UKHPI), with sales activity and mortgage lending setting new records, as the roadmap to 'normality' remains on course.

Read the latest national housing update from Fine & Country.

A year ago, the property market was in the midst of full lockdown; a year on and the market is hitting new heights. Annual property price growth is at its strongest in over six years (UKHPI), with sales activity and mortgage lending setting new records, as the
roadmap to 'normality' remains on course.

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MAY 2021

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE


K E Y S T A T S

E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES

£764,000 £1,138,269 10.78%

£613 £37.9bn 14,517

LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE

MORTGAGE APPROVALS 82,735 -11.3% 45.3%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 190,980 31.2% 102.4%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £35.6 bn 25.8% 54.6%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 29,980 -4.5% 27.1%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 44,030 27.6% 11.4%

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

2 0MOMENTUM 1 8 - TH E YE ACONTINUES

R TH AT WAS

A Although year ago, the the festive property season market is upon was us, in there midst is little of seasonal full lockdown; cheer and a year ‘good on will and to the

all’

market evident is across hitting the new political heights. arena. Annual Brexit property continues price to dominate growth is the at its headlines strongest as in all over

eyes

six await years the (UKHPI), final outcome. with sales Whatever activity the and conclusion, mortgage there lending are setting sure to new be implications records, as for the

roadmap sterling and to the ‘normality’ economy. remains As 2018 on draws course.

to a close, are we any closer to predicting what

we can expect in 2019?

RECORD-BREAKING

Over 190,000 property sales were recorded in March

and GLIMMERS mortgage lending OF SEASONAL topped £35.6 CHEER billion, both records

according to the HMRC and Bank of England respectively.

Sales Throughout across the 2018 UK sales were volumes on average across 30% the higher housing during

market

the have first struggled, quarter thanks year-on-year to the backdrop (TwentyCi), of lower breaching buyer a third

of demand a million and for low only levels the of second consumer time in confidence. history. Rightmove

However,

report latest data properties from the sold Bank faster of England in the first indicates two weeks mortgage of April

than approvals

ever previously in October

recorded; were 4%

in higher

March, than

23% a year

of homes

ago, while

were the total

‘sale value

agreed’ of lending

within just hit its

7 highest

days. Consumer monthly figure

confidence

since

the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the

is at its highest level since the start of 2008, the PwC

additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took

index is 34 points higher than at the start of the pandemic

place across the UK in October than in any month since July

and confidence in UK businesses across the service and

2017, while Rightmove data shows properties in 2018 to

manufacturing sectors in April was at its strongest since

date have taken an average of 61 days from the start of

November 2013 (IHS Markit). Although mortgage approvals

marketing to being sold-subject-to-contract, one day

dipped shorter

slightly than last

in April year and

to their an improvement

lowest level since on the

last 65

August,

days

close witnessed to 83,000 in 2016. new loans were approved, over 20% higher

than the long-term average (Dataloft, Bank of England).

Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer,

mortgage interest rates remain low. UK Finance report that

at 2.23% the current average mortgage interest rate is lower

PRICE GROWTH STRENGTHENS

than the rate both five and ten years ago, 3.14% and 6.11%

The respectively. loosening Adjusting of restrictions for inflation, April wages led to have an increase risen over in

supply the past to year, the market, positive and news valuation for household activity finances. is on the rise.

However, as yet, this is failing to keep pace with demand,

property SENSE AND prices rising SENSIBILITY month on month. Nationwide report

the average property has increased by nearly £16,000 over

Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The

the past 12 months; a 2.1% rise in prices between March and

average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November,

April is the largest month-on-month increase recorded since

the largest November fall since 2012 according to

February 2004. Based on the current trajectory, annual

Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated

growth across the UK will hit double digits by June, with agents

throughout the year. Annual house price growth across the

reporting the strongest sentiment towards price growth

UK in the year to September was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a

between year ago,

April according

and June to the

since official

the UK

summer House

of Price

2015 Index.

(RICS).

Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a

year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit

uncertainty.

Property price growth across the premium markets is currently

outperforming the general market and growth in excess of 10%

has been seen in eight out of ten regions in England and Wales.

Across the UK prime markets, the average price of property

is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many

HIGH-VALUE assets 2018 has HOMES not proved SOAR

momentous. In the year to the

end of November the average price of gold has fallen by

More over than 1%, 8,300 the homes stock market sold for (FTSE over 100) £1 million by 6%, during while the

S&P

first three Global months Luxury of Index 2021, is the 5.5% highest lower quarterly than a year figure ago, ever

despite

recorded. fine wines Buyers and have classic been cars able boasting to benefit small from positive a saving returns. of

£15,000 Many thanks commentators to the stamp report duty evidence holiday offering pent-up 0% demand property

taxation for higher on purchases priced properties, up to £500,000. with prospective This meant vendors just over a

third waiting (36%) of for all more residential clarity sales before were they subject commit to to tax, their compared

to over purchase. two-thirds (67%) during Q1 2020. The holiday, and

the enforced closure of the market in Lockdown 1, has led to a

£2.3 A billion CRYSTAL fall in residential BALL property taxation receipts to the

Treasury during 2020–21.

Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with

a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK

and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark

MEETING Carney, has NEEDS

reiterated his forecast that in the event of a nodeal

Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average

As competition for property remains high, meeting the needs of

house prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the

buyers Office

and for

sellers Budget

in the Responsibility

marketplace point

is paramount. to employment

Capability,

levels

market continuing

knowledge to rise

and in

trust 2019,

are along

considered with average

the most earnings,

important

while

attributes inflation for is home predicted movers to edge when back choosing to the an government’s agent, with less

2.0%

than target. one in This five basing may well their require decision a gradual on the rise agent in interest offering rates, the

lowest although fee (Dataloft, the current Property view is Academy that the 2020). base rate Floorplans, will rise to the

quality just and 1.5 number – 1.75% of by photographs 2021. and a map or street view

are deemed important information for over 90% of buyers.

Broadband Across speeds the housing and ‘green’ market, credentials as per 2018, are many set to move up

the agenda commentators in future expect years, energy the wider efficiency UK market the main to outperform reason

why London.

home movers An average

would of

choose independent

a new build forecasts

property.

predicts price

growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In

comparison, those commentating on the London market

anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling

prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to

be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.

Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over

10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be

true.

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


R E G I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

£473,000 £474,000

£641,792

+10.8% +10.9%

£319

£525,000

£693,912

+11.3% +10.3%

£335

£376,000

£501,573

+7.3%

£247

£460,000

£610,643

+10.3% +11.1%

£299

£481,000

£630,186

+10.2%

£291

£419,000

£546,274

+10.8%

£285

£750,000

£1,007,650

+10.0%

£483

£686,000

£938,080

+15.3%

£435

£905,000 £904,000

£1,302,081 £1,301,890

+11.1% +17.2%

£501 £517

£1,550,000

£2,508,438

+6.4%

£1,180

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE

PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is

the value over which the top 5%

of property sales occur. The chart

shows a rolling 12 month change

in the average price paid for

premium properties compared

to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

12.5%

10%

7.5%

5%

2.5%

0%

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

FEB

2021

MAR

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE

LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES

SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM

PRICE THRESHOLD

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,200

An individual premium price

threshold is calculated for each

property type based on sold

prices in the last 12 months. The

chart shows the average price paid

per square foot for all of these

premium properties.

£900

£600

£300

£1122

£719

£536 £531

£613

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


T R A N S A C T I O N S

A N D K EY P RI C E POIN T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE COUNTRY

Chart shows a rolling 12 month

change in transactions compared

to the previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+

10%

0%

PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be

taken when viewing this chart as

figures may show an exaggerated

decline due to the closure of the

market April to June 2020. Housing

market demand remains strong; the

HMRC report sales in March 2021

were the highest monthly figure ever

recorded.

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

FEB

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£250,770

£764,000

£1,138,269

£219,579

£739,489

£1,144,217

£193,345

£636,129

£1,017,356

£236,411

£607,468

£841,545

£387,034

£976,553

£1,444,599

£256,703

£768,446

£1,136,162

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in

the average price paid for all

properties sold compared to the

previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

FEB

2021

MAR

2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER

THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF

ALL PROPERTY SALES

ENGLAND & WALES

Average price paid per square

foot for all property transactions.

£400

£300

£200

£326

£213

£245

£288

£255

£100

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


A V A I L A B I L I T Y

A N D TIM E TO SE LL

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS

TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days

from when a property is first

marketed on Rightmove to

when the estate agent marks it

as “sold subject to contract”.

100

75

50

76

67

61

83

88

73

62

53

50 49

52

57

65

60

51

25

0

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APRIL

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

FEB

2021

MAR

2021

Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO

BUY PER AGENT

Average stock per agent

calculated by the average

number of properties an agent

has on Rightmove each day

across the month.

NATIONAL

50

40

30

20

10

0

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APRIL

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

JAN

2021

FEB

2021

MAR

2021

Source: Rightmove

T: +44 (0)207 079 1515

E: parklane@fineandcountry.com

fineandcountry.com

Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. Whilst every effort has been made to

ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any

nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction

of all or part of the report in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.

Report edited by Inform user and published on 04-05-2021.

Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due

to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.

dataloft.co.uk

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