Times of the Islands Summer 2021

Hurricane season runs annually in the Atlantic from
June 1 to November 30. It is important to note that tropical
activity can occur outside of these dates, of course.
Named systems have formed in May and also in December
due to favorable conditions in the Atlantic Basin.
During 2020, El Niño conditions transitioned to neutral/weak
La Niña. In general, neutral and weak La Niña
conditions lend to a more active season. Upper level
winds during this type of El Niño–Southern Oscillation
are typically light across the Atlantic Basin, resulting in a
reduction in wind shear, which promotes an environment
conducive to tropical development. The other piece of the
2020 puzzle was well-above-normal sea surface temperatures
across the entire Atlantic, Caribbean and into the
Gulf of Mexico. As a result, plenty of fuel was available
for tropical development.
For the 2021 season, unfortunately some of the conditions
will mirror the 2020 season. As of press time, weak
La Niña conditions were present, with the forecast calling
for these conditions to continue to weaken through
the first month of summer before conditions turn neutral
for the remainder of the summer and into the early
fall. Additionally, sea surface temperatures currently are
running above normal in a large portion of the Gulf of
Mexico, the Caribbean and the Atlantic Basin. As a result
of these conditions, the opportunity will exist for a significant
tropical season across the Atlantic.
NOAA is predicting another above-normal Atlantic
hurricane season. However, experts do not anticipate the
historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. For 2021, a
likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph
or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes
(category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or
higher) is expected.
My personal official forecast is for 20 named storms, 9
hurricanes and also 4 major hurricanes. (For perspective,
the average hurricane season sees 14 named storms,
7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.) While it is nearly
impossible to say with accuracy at this time, islands in the
Caribbean and the United States mainland stand a high
likelihood of seeing multiple land-falling systems during
the 2021 season.
With the 2021 season on the horizon, it is important
for all travelers to the Islands to take time to think about
their hurricane preparedness plans if one should occur
during your travels. It also is important to think about
adding trip insurance to protect your investment. If a
hurricane strikes while you are on-island, there is a significant
likelihood that you will be delayed in returning to
your country of origin. Also ensure that friends and family
at home are aware of your travel plans and have a copy
of your itinerary. If on-island and a tropical system threatens,
be sure to check with your hotel/resort/villa staff to
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