February 2022 — M2CC Newsletter

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Pushes Back

See page 20

Monthly Newsletter

Roughly 3,000 US

troops to move to NATO

countries near Ukraine

amid rising tensions

with Russia


3,000 U.S. troops will move to

ally countries in Europe amid

rising tensions on the Continent as

Russia continues amassing troops

along the Ukrainian border, chief

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby

said Wednesday.

The U.S. will send about 2,000

troops from Fort Bragg, N.C., to

Poland and Germany and reposition

about 1,000 service members from

an infantry Stryker squadron in

Germany to Romania in the coming

days, he said.

“The United States stands shoulder

to shoulder with our NATO allies,”

Kirby told reporters at the Pentagon.

“The current situation demands

that we reinforce the deterrent

and defensive posture on NATO's

eastern flank.”

In December, Russia began

amassing about 100,000 troops at its

border with Ukraine, and this month

started adding troops to Ukraine’s

northern border with Belarus for

what Russia said were exercises

with that country.

NATO nations, including the U.S.,

have expressed concern in recent

weeks that the buildup could mean

Russia intends to invade Ukraine, as

it did in 2014 when Russia annexed

the Crimean Peninsula.

Poland and Romania are among

four NATO countries, along with

Slovakia and Hungary, that border

Ukraine to the west. Kirby said

the deployment should signal

America’s commitment to NATO

and collective defense, as well as to

allow the U.S. to “be prepared for a

range of contingencies.”

“These are not permanent moves,

they are moves designed to respond

to the current security environment,”

Kirby said. “Moreover, these forces

are not going to fight in Ukraine.

They're going to ensure the robust

defense of our NATO allies.”

Kirby did not say when the troops

will deploy, though the forces placed

on high alert last week are ready to

deploy within five days when called

upon to support U.S. allies.

“We are making it clear that we're

going to be prepared to defend our

NATO allies if it comes to that," he

said. "Hopefully it won't come to


Deploying troops

Fort Bragg’s 82nd Airborne Division

is deploying about 1,700 troops from

an infantry brigade combat team

and other “key enablers” to Poland,

the Pentagon said in a statement

Wednesday. Another 300 from other

elements of the 18th Airborne Corps

at Fort Bragg will form a joint task

force headquarters in Germany.

“Collectively, this force is trained

and equipped for a variety of

missions to deter aggression and

to reassure and defend our allies

during this period of elevated risk,”

the Defense Department said in the


The 82nd Airborne maintains one

of its brigades of paratroopers on

short-notice deployment status at

all times, making up the bulk of the

U.S. military’s Immediate Response

Force, according to Army officials.

The IRF, which also includes some

Air Force troops, is tasked to deploy

within hours to respond to trouble

around the globe.

Recently, the 82nd's troops deployed

for the drawdown in Afghanistan,


where they were the final American

forces to leave Kabul, ending the

United States’ 20-year conflict in

that country on Aug. 31, Pentagon

officials said at that time.

The 1,000 troops moving to

Romania are part of the 2nd

Calvary Regiment, a mounted

unit stationed at Rose Barracks in

Vilseck, Germany, according to

the statement. They will join about

900 U.S. troops already in Romania

who are on regular rotational


“[The regiment] will send a

combined arms force equipped with

wheeled, armored fighting vehicles

to deter aggression and enhance

our defensive capabilities in frontline

allied states during this period

of elevated risk,” the Pentagon

said. “These forces will augment

the more than 900 U.S. service

members already on regular rotation

in Romania.”

Though the U.S. is sending forces

to the countries without the NATO

Response Force, other allies also

plan to send troops to the region,

Kirby said.

“In the case of Romania, we know

the French are going to be preparing

to deploy troops there [and] we will

find ways to complement that force

presence in full consultation with

Romania,” he said.

The moves follow President Joe

Biden comments Friday night that

he intended to send a small amount

of U.S. service members into

Eastern Europe as tensions increase

with Russia over its buildup of

troops around Ukraine.

The Fort Bragg troops were part of

the roughly 8,500 U.S. troops placed

Continued on page 12

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Focus on Oversight a Key for Success at


In the corrections industry, maintaining high standards of

operation is imperative to meeting the needs of the individuals

in our care. That's why CoreCivic adheres to a stringent set of

guidelines set forth by our own standards, as well as those of our

government partners and the American Correctional Association


Founded in 1870, the ACA is considered the national benchmark

for the effective operation of correctional systems throughout

the United States. To become accredited, a facility must achieve

compliance with ACA mandatory standards and a minimum of

90 percent non-mandatory standards. CoreCivic facilities adhere

to ACA standards, and in 2020, CoreCivic earned an average

ACA audit score of 99.6 percent across all facilities.

Key ACA audit areas include facility personnel, resident reentry

programs, resident safety, health care, and more.

holds our facilities and staff to a high standard. To be able to

represent our facility and receive reaccreditation in person is an


Adhering to ACA standards is only one part of CoreCivic's

commitment to robust oversight. When government partners

utilize CoreCivic's services, we are held not only to our own

high standards and those of the ACA, but we are often held to

the same or higher accountability of our public counterparts

through stringent government contracts, unfettered access to

our facilities for our partners, and hundreds of on-site quality

assurance monitors.

We provide access to our government partners, with most of

our facilities having government agency employees known as

contract monitors who are physically on-site to ensure we are

operating in line with partner guidelines.

Recently, the ACA held in Nashville, Tennessee, its 151st

Congress of Corrections, an annual convention that brings

together corrections professionals from across the country. In

addition to various workshops and events at the convention, the

ACA Commission on Accreditation also held panel hearings to

award accreditation to correctional facilities that meet the ACA's

rigorous requirements. Listed below are the seven CoreCivic

facilities that earned reaccreditation this year, with mandatory/

non-mandatory scores:

• Bent County Correctional Facility - 100/99.0

• Citrus County Detention Facility - 100/100

• Eloy Detention Center - 100/100

• Lake Erie Correctional Institution - 100/99.3

• Saguaro Correctional Center - 100/99.8

• Stewart Detention Center - 100/100

• Tallahatchie County Correctional Facility - 100/100

"The accreditation process is very important," said Warden

Fred Figueroa from Eloy Detention Center, one of the seven

CoreCivic facilities that was awarded reaccreditation. "ACA

To maintain our own high standards, annual on-site audits covering

all operational areas are administered to ensure compliance with

contractual and regulatory obligations and corporate-mandated

requirements. Each CoreCivic Safety facility is audited by our

internal quality assurance division, which is independent from

our operations division. Facilities are expected to be audit-ready

year-round, maintaining continuous compliance with numerous

applicable standards.

CoreCivic employs 75 staff members dedicated to quality

assurance, including several subject matter experts with extensive

experience from all major disciplines within our institutional


"A lot of hard work goes into preparing for these audits,"

Figueroa said. "Once they're complete, the staff can see their

accomplishments and feel proud."

Having multiple levels of oversight helps CoreCivic maintain

a safe environment for those in our care. By holding ourselves

accountable to our own high standards, along with our

government partners' and ACA's standards, CoreCivic continues

to be a trusted partner working to better the public good.

6 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

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82nd Airborne troops

Begin to Arrive in


STUTTGART, Germany Soldiers with the 82nd Airborne

Division are slated to begin arriving Sunday in southeastern

Poland with more forces to follow in the days ahead, U.S. Army

Europe and Africa said in a statement.

The deployment of the Fort Bragg-based paratroopers into

central Europe comes on the heels of the arrival of Maj. Gen.

Christopher Donahue, commander of the 82nd, who landed in

Poland on Saturday, USAREUR-AF said.

“Without getting into specific timelines, the 82nd Airborne

Division personnel are scheduled to begin arriving today and

over the coming days,” USAREUR-AF said in a statement.

Last week, the first contingent of 18thAirborne Corps troops

arrived in Europe, where they will form a joint task force in

Wiesbaden, Germany. The contingency headquarters, called

Task Force Dragon, will be led by 18th Airborne Corps boss Lt.

Gen. Michael Kurilla.

Kurilla is expected to arrive in Wiesbaden in the coming days,

an Army spokesman said Sunday. The task force will fall under

the command of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, which is led by

Gen. Christopher Cavoli.

In all, 2,000 troops from Fort Bragg are taking part in the

mission in Germany and Poland, which is focused on reassuring

allies worried about potential Russian aggression connected to

Moscow’s military buildup around Ukraine.

On Thursday, U.S. forces in Poland began setting the stage for

the arrival of the 82nd in Poland, operating out of an airfield in

Rzeszow, a southeastern Polish town not far from the Ukrainian


In other moves, the U.S. Army also is preparing to soon send

1,000 soldiers from the Vilseck, Germany, 2nd Cavalry Regiment

to Romania to bolster defenses there. A date has not yet been

announced for the push into Romania, where U.S. European

Command already has about 900 troops positioned on regular


In Poland, the 82nd soldiers will join a force of roughly 4,000

U.S. service members already operating in various parts of the

country on a rotational basis, including hundreds of soldiers

supporting a NATO mission just 50 miles from Russia’s military

exclave of Kaliningrad.



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contact Nathan.Stiles@mhce.us


10 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

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contact Nathan.Stiles@mhce.us



12 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

on alert for a possible deployment

in Europe last week to join the

NATO Response Force, which

has not been activated. However,

the deployments announced

Wednesday are separate from

the NATO force and are part of

agreements between the U.S. and

Poland and Romania.

"Some of the forces designated for

the response force have not been

activated, but if there comes a time

where we might want to deploy

some of them, as well, in a more

bilateral-related relationship, we're

certainly not going to close that

option off,” Kirby said.

More deployments possible

Since Jan. 24, the Pentagon has

placed more troops on prepare-todeploy

orders in addition to the

8,500 tapped last week, Kirby said

before declining to provide further


“You can expect that that could

continue to happen going

forward,” he said. “We're going to

constantly look at the conditions in

the region and consult with allies

and partners. If we feel we need to

make additional forces more ready,

we’ll do that.”

The NATO response force consists

of about 40,000 troops from

multiple countries in the alliance

that can quickly respond to threats

by sea, air and land, Kirby said.

About half of those troops make up

a "very ready joint task force" with

combined arms and other military


The incoming U.S. troops

announced Wednesday will not

be under NATO control. The U.S.

already has about 4,000 service

members in Poland on a regular

rotational basis. Some of those

troops are part of the NATO

battle group in Poland, which is a

multinational force of roughly

1,000 troops.

The U.S.-led multinational battle

group is one of four that NATO

sent to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

and Poland after Russia invaded

Ukraine in 2014 and annexed its

Crimean Peninsula after deadly

protests toppled the country’s

former pro-Russian government.

Since then, NATO forces have

maintained a presence in the

eastern part of the alliance and,

in recent days, some NATO

member countries aside from the

U.S. have announced additional

upcoming deployments to the

region, according to the alliance


“There were no NATO forces in

the eastern part of the alliance

before 2014,” according to

NATO’s website. “Their presence

makes clear that an attack on one

ally will be considered an attack on

the whole alliance.”

The U.S. could send additional

troops to eastern Europe in

the future, Kirby said, adding

the deployment announced

Wednesday “is not the sum total of

the deterrence actions we will take

or those to support our allies.”

“We are continuously reviewing

our posture so there may soon be

additional posture decisions to

announce including movements

that are part of ongoing military

exercises,” Kirby said.

Though Biden has said he will

not send combat troops into

Ukraine, Kirby did not rule out the

possibility that U.S. forces could

be sent into the country to conduct


“Our troops are multimission

capable and they will be prepared

for a range of contingencies,” he


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However, the State Department

in recent weeks has said the U.S.

does not plan to launch a military

evacuation mission and urged

American citizens in Ukraine to

leave the country on their own as

soon as possible.

Though no combat troops will

move into the country, about 100-

200 Florida National Guard special

operators have been in Ukraine

since December on an advise-andassist

mission training Ukrainian

troops. There had been no change

to that mission as of Wednesday,

Kirby said.

The U.S. also continues sending

security assistance packages

including Javelin anti-tank

missiles, grenade launchers and

other artillery, the most recent

of which arrived in Ukraine on

Friday, he said.

The U.S. has sent $650 million in

security assistance to the country

during the past year and $2.7

billion total since 2014, according

to the State Department.

Hope for diplomacy

While the upcoming deployment

represents the first military

movement that the U.S. has taken

in response to the Russian threat,

the Biden administration continues

to prefer a diplomatic resolution,

Kirby said.

“We do not know if Russia has

made a final decision to further

invade Ukraine [but it] clearly

has that capability,” he said.

“The department has continued

to support diplomatic efforts led

by the White House and the State

Department to press for resolution.

We do not believe conflict is


Still, Kirby said the upcoming

deployments “are unmistakable

signals to the world that we stand

ready to reassure our NATO allies

and determined and defend against

any aggression.”

“The measure of success here

is that the NATO’s eastern flank

is appropriately postured and

prepared to defend itself … and to

make it very clear secondarily, not

only to our allies but to [Russian

President Vladimir Putin] that

we take our NATO commitments


The U.S. last week sent a written

response to Russia’s demands

that NATO bar Ukraine from

membership in the alliance and for

the West to remove foreign troops

and military equipment from

Eastern European countries that

joined NATO since 1996.

The document did not bend to those

requests but offered some room

for negotiation on other matters

such as arms control and nuclear

weapons management, according

to the State Department.

Putin criticized the response during

a rare news conference Tuesday,

saying it did not aptly consider

Russia's position.

“In Ukrainian documents it says

that they want to take back Crimea

and if they have to they will use

military force there,” Putin said.

“So let’s imagine Ukraine is a

NATO state and they start the

separation so now do we have

to start a war against the NATO

alliance? Did anyone think about

that? I don’t think so.”

However, the U.S. and the alliance

have stood firm that it will not close

its doors to any European country

seeking membership.

“That should be up to Ukraine,

who they associate with. And any

membership in NATO is going

to be a decision between the

sovereign state in question and

NATO,” Kirby has said. “And it’s

not something that Mr. Putin gets

to have a veto on.”

Russia is now “preparing different

versions of reaction” from military

to diplomatic responses for

Putin’s review, Russian Foreign

Minister Sergey Lavrov said last

week, according to the Russian

government-owned Tass news


"Mr. Putin can go a long way to

serving [conflict prevention] by

taking seriously the proposals that

we have put forward diplomatically

and by de-escalating removing

some of those troops away [from

Ukraine's border,]" Kirby said.

14 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

House Democrats Introduce Legislation to Keep

Federal Government Funded Until March 11

House Democrats introduced

legislation Monday to keep

the federal government funded

through March 11 in an attempt

to avoid a shutdown on Feb. 18,

when current short-term funding


Rep. Rosa L. DeLauro, D-Conn.,

chairwoman of the House

Appropriations Committee,

introduced the new shortterm

funding measure, saying

the continuing resolution will

provide time for Congress

to complete its bipartisan

negotiations on the budget for

fiscal 2022.

funded at their existing spending

levels but that do not provide

new funding for initiatives

championed by the president.

While Republicans appeared

content to continue funding

the government in this limited

fashion, recent negotiations

have signaled the possibility of

a longer-term budget resolution.

Until a final deal is reached,

however, another stopgap

measure is needed before Feb.

18, when the current short-term

government funding measure


"Our country needs a

government funding agreement

to create good-paying jobs, grow

opportunity for the middle class,

and protect our national security.

We are close to reaching a

framework government funding

agreement, but we will need

additional time to complete the

legislation in full," DeLauro said

in a statement.

Both Democratic and Republican

leaders have signaled that the

short-term funding measure

will pass and have expressed

optimism over a larger funding


"We're going to get something

done. It will probably be a shortterm

CR, and it will be this

coming week to give us a little

The House is expected to vote

on the stopgap measure Tuesday,

and, if passed, it will go to the


Congressional negotiations for

a 2022 deal have been slow,

as Democrats attempt to sell

Republicans on a $1.5 trillion

appropriations package that

would pump new spending

into health care, transportation,

science and defense many of

President Joe Biden's key agenda


Since Biden took office, the

government has operated under

short-term measures that keep

federal agencies and programs

WWW.M2CC.US Monthly Newsletter | 15

more time," House Majority

Leader Steny H. Hoyer, D-Md.,

said Sunday on MSNBC.

"Negotiations are very vigorous,

and I think that we're going to get

agreement both on the top line,

how much spending is going to

be in, and how it will be spent."

In the Senate, Sen. Roy Blunt,

R-Mo., said that while some

Republicans would prefer to

continue funding the government

at its current levels and

through short-term measures

their party also wants to secure

more funding for the military.

"Can't have it all the ways,"

Blunt said, per CNBC. "We still

have a likelihood of getting the

final bill done."

DeLauro's Monday measure also

provides $350 million to address

water contamination from the

Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage

Facility in Hawaii.

Last year, a fuel storage

installation hidden inside a

mountain ridge near Pearl

Harbor leaked petroleum into a

drinking water well, sickening

thousands in military housing.

The Hawaii Department of

Health has ordered the Navy to

suspend operations at the fuel

storage facility. The Navy sued

the state of Hawaii last week

over the order to defuel.

US Military Drills with Pacific Allies

Send a Message to China, Expert


TOKYO – Military exercises

between the United States and

its allies in the Western Pacific,

both ongoing and upcoming,

send a message to China not

to pull a “stunt” to distract

people at home, according to a

New Zealand-based American

security expert.

The U.S. Air Force is about to

launch Cope North, a large-scale

aerial combat, force employment

and disaster relief exercise with

Japan and Australia, that will

involve more than 2,000 sorties

on and around Guam, Pacific Air

Forces announced in a statement


Fighter aircraft from all three

nations will take part in counterair

and close-air support

missions, according to the

statement. They’ll also practice

aerial refueling. Counter air

means attacking enemy air bases

while close air support involves

aircraft attacking enemy targets

near friendly ground forces.

“These training missions will

conclude with a large force

employment exercise designed

to enhance readiness and

interoperability among the three

countries,” the statement said.

Interoperability describes the

ability of one country’s armed

forces to use another country’s

training methods and military


The drills follow last week’s

Keen Edge command post

exercise involving U.S. and

Japanese forces in Japan and the

ongoing Marine Exercise 2022

amphibious-assault training

involving U.S. sailors and

Marines and local forces in the


The exercises send a message

to China, New Zealand-based

security expert Paul Buchanan

said Monday.

Internal troubles such as

economic and supply disruptions

and coronavirus outbreaks could

turn powerful Chinese factions

against President Xi Jinping,

Buchanan predicted.

Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii,

said in a statement Monday that

he helped secure part of that

Hawaii funding $100 million

to cover the cost of draining

the tank facility.

"This bill funds defueling, and it

establishes Congress's position

on Red Hill: the DOD must

defuel and follow the state's

order immediately," he said.

16 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION


contact Kyle.Stephens@mhce.us

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The Chinese leader hasn’t left Beijing for 700 days, Foreign Policy

reported Friday.

“What do authoritarian leaders do when they are concerned about

internal challenges?” Buchanan asked. “They do something outside

to distract attention.”


The U.S. and its allies are eager to deter China from “pulling a stunt”

in the South China Sea or beyond, he said.

“The possibility of Xi intentionally … using conflict to divert attention

from his internal woes have increased dramatically,” he said. “These

exercises increase deterrence.”

The Cope North exercise, which runs from Wednesday to Feb. 18,

begins with humanitarian-assistance and disaster-relief training,

according to a Pacific Air Forces statement.

Training will take place at Andersen Air Force Base and Northwest

Field on Guam; the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands,

including Rota, Saipan and Tinian; Palau and the Federated States of

Micronesia, the statement said.

Over 2,000 sorties are planned across seven islands and 10 airfields.

More than 2,500 U.S. airmen, Marines, and sailors will train alongside

about 1,000 from Japan and Australia. Approximately 130 aircraft

from over 30 units will fly in the exercise, the statement said.

The training begins as drills in Japan and the Philippines end.

U.S. sailors and Marines and Philippine troops will wrap up Marine

Exercise 2022 in the Philippines on Wednesday.

The forces, which began training Thursday, have involved warships

training at sea, the U.S. Embassy in the Philippines said on its website


The training includes beach landings, search and seizure of enemy

craft and moving troops and equipment, the statement said.

U.S. warships participating include the USS Essex, USS Portland and

USS Pearl Harbor carrying troops from the 11th Marine Expeditionary


Keen Edge, which began Jan. 23 and wraps up Thursday, involves

500 U.S. personnel and 1,380 Japanese troops at Yokota Air Base and

other locations in Japan, along with Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii. It

aims to increase combat readiness and the ability of U.S. and Japanese

Forces to work together, USFJ said in a Jan. 23 statement.

18 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

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20 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

including former President Donald Trump,

who called Canadian Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau a "far left lunatic" who has

"destroyed Canada with insane COVID


Prominent Republicans including Florida

Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Attorney

General Ken Paxton complained after

crowdfunding site GoFundMe said it would

refund the vast majority of the millions of

dollars raised by demonstrators.

The site said it cut off funding for protest

organizers after determining that their

efforts violated the site's terms of service

by engaging in unlawful activity. Ontario

Provincial Premier Doug Ford has called

the protest an occupation.

In response, Texas Attorney General Ken

Paxton tweeted: "Patriotic Texans donated

to Canadian truckers' worthy cause."

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said on Fox News

that "government doesn't have the right

to force you to comply to their arbitrary


Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino

shot back: "It is certainly not the concern

of the Texas attorney general as to how

we in Canada go about our daily lives in

accordance with the rule of law."

"We need to be vigilant about potential

foreign interference ... Whatever

statements may have been made by some

foreign official are neither here nor there.

We're Canadian. We have our own set of

Canada Pushes

Back Against

GOP Support for

COVID Protests

OTTAWA, Ontario Canada's public

safety minister said Monday that U.S.

officials should stay out of his country's

domestic affairs, joining other Canadian

leaders in pushing back against prominent

Republicans who offered support for the

protests of COVID-19 mandates that have

besieged downtown Ottawa for more than

a week.

A day after the city declared a state of

emergency, the mayor pleaded for almost

2,000 extra police officers to help quell

the raucous nightly demonstrations staged

by the so-called Freedom Truck Convoy,

which has used hundreds of parked trucks

to paralyze the Canadian capital's business

district. The protests have also infuriated

people who live around downtown,

including neighborhoods near Parliament

Hill, the seat of the federal government.

Embattled Ottawa Police Chief Peter

Sloly called the demonstration an

"unprecedented protest never seen in

Canada" and acknowledged that authorities

failed to plan for it to last more than three


Many members of the GOP have made

comments supporting the demonstrations,

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laws. We will follow them," Mendicino


In a letter to Trudeau and the public safety

minister, Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson said

"what was initially described as a peaceful

protest has now turned into a siege of our

downtown area" with 400 to 500 trucks. He

asked for 1,800 additional police officers.

Dominic LeBlanc, the minister of

intergovernmental affairs, blamed the

GOP interference for inciting disorderly

conduct and helping to fund entities that are

not respecting Canadian law. Emergency

Preparedness Minister Bill Blair said

Paxton was wrong for commenting on it.

Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador

to Canada, said groups in the U.S. need

to stop funding and interfering in the

domestic affairs of America's neighbor.

Protesters have said they will not leave

until all vaccine mandates and COVID-19

restrictions are lifted. They also called

for the removal of Trudeau's government,

though it is responsible for few of the

measures, most of which were put in place

by provincial governments.

On the street in front of Parliament Hill

were thousands of signs ranging from "no

more mandates" and "freedom of choice"

to "truck you Trudeau" and "the pandemic

destroyed our freedoms."

Trudeau has called the protesters a "fringe,"

but he faces calls by the opposition

Conservative party to extend an "olive

branch" to them. Some Conservative

lawmakers, including one running to lead

the party, have met and posted for pictures

with them.

Sloly said his police force needs more

resources. Policed moved to cut off the

protesters' fuel supply late Sunday.

"We are turning up the heat in every way

we can possibly can," Sloly said.

Blair said Ottawa police have been

provided with resources and they are ready

to assist further.

"It's well past the time to bring this protest

to an end," Blair said.

LeBlanc said the prime minister has been

clear that this is the civilian police force's

responsibility. Trudeau ruled out sending

in the army last week.

Meanwhile, Ottawa police were

investigating a fire at an apartment

building that was apparently set by

protesters. Matias Munoz said residents of

the building south of Parliament Hill were

already at their wits' end Saturday night

as the noise of the protest blared through

their homes for the ninth night in a row.

When he came downstairs Sunday

morning, Monoz said the carpet and floor

were charred, and there were blackened

fire-starter bricks strewn across the lobby.

Surveillance video showed two men light

a package of the bricks in the lobby and

tape or tie the front door handles together

before leaving through a side door before

dawn. The video also showed a different

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man entering the building and putting the

fire out a short while later, Munoz said.

"Somebody trying to do something as

insidious as taping the door shut so people

can't leave if there's a fire in the main lobby

it's terror, is what it is," Munoz said.

Ottawa police declined to release details,

citing the ongoing investigation.

In other developments, Ontario Superior

Court Justice Hugh McLean granted a 10-

day injunction to prevent truckers parked

on city streets in downtown Ottawa from

honking their horns incessantly.

22 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

As US Predicts

Russia Could

Seize Kyiv in

Days, diplomatic

Efforts set to

Intensify this week

Efforts to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine

will intensify this week, as world leaders make a

heightened push for a diplomatic solution, even

as new U.S. military and intelligence assessments

which estimated Russia could seize Kyiv in

days and leave up to 50,000 civilians killed

or wounded suggest that the window for

negotiations is closing.

President Joe Biden is set to meet Monday with

new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has

been accused of not doing enough to respond

to Russian aggression along with his European

allies. French President Emmanuel Macron, who

recently reemphasized France's commitment

to its NATO allies, will meet Russian President

Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday, and then

travel to Kyiv on Tuesday to meet with Ukrainian

President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"The priority for me on the Ukrainian question is

dialogue with Russia and de-escalation," Macron

told reporters last week. "I'm very worried by the

situation on the ground."

The White House on Sunday said Biden and

Macron had spoken by phone to discuss "ongoing

diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response

to Russia's continued military build-up on

Ukraine's borders." Over the weekend, senior

Russian officials dismissed new U.S. intelligence

reports that Russia could take over Kyiv in

days as alarmist and as unlikely as an attack by

Washington on London.

"Madness and scaremongering continues. . . .

What if we would say that US could seize London

in a week and cause 300K civilian deaths?"

Russia's deputy ambassador to the United

Nations, Dmitry Polyanskiy, tweeted Sunday.

And parliamentary deputy Artem Turov, a member

of Putin's United Russia party, accused the United

States of disseminating fake information and of

"doing everything possible to fan a new conflict."

WWW.M2CC.US Monthly Newsletter | 23

On Sunday, Zelensky's office maintained that a diplomatic

solution was more likely than war.

"An honest assessment of the situation suggests that the

chance of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation is

still substantially higher than the threat of further escalation,"

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in a


However, Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan on

Sunday defended the updated U.S. military and intelligence

assessments that lawmakers and European partners were

briefed on over the past several days, which were U.S. officials'

bleakest appraisal yet of the deteriorating security situation in


"We're in the window where something could happen. That is,

a military escalation and invasion of Ukraine could happen at

any time," Sullivan said on NBC's "Meet the Press," adding:

"We believe that the Russians have put in place the capabilities

to mount a significant military operation into Ukraine, and we

have been working hard to prepare a response."

Still, as Biden administration officials have done for weeks,

Sullivan stressed there remained a "diplomatic path" forward

if Putin chose, even as the U.S. prepared for other scenarios.

"President Biden has rallied our allies. He has reinforced and

reassured our partners on the eastern flank," Sullivan said.

"He has provided material support to the Ukrainians, and he

has offered the Russians a diplomatic path if that's what they

choose instead, but either way, we are ready, our allies are

ready, and we're trying to help the Ukrainian people get ready,

as well."

Seven people familiar with the new U.S. intelligence

assessments said Putin has 70% of the combat power he needs

for an assault that under the most extreme scenario

could quickly take out the capital, Kyiv, and remove Zelensky,

Ukraine's democratically elected president. Such an invasion,

they said, could trigger a refugee crisis in Europe as up to 5

million people flee.

As of Friday, 83 Russian battalion tactical groups, with about

750 troops each, were arrayed for a possible assault. That is up

from 60 two weeks ago.

The White House has said the United States does not have

information that Putin has made a decision to invade. But

satellite imagery and other intelligence indicate he has amassed

more than 100,000 troops and equipment on the border with

Ukraine one Western security official put the number at

130,000 potentially positioning for what could become the

largest military land offensive in Europe since World War II.

The Biden administration in recent days has also warned that

Moscow was considering filming a fake attack against Russian

territory or Russian-speaking people by Ukrainian forces as

a pretext to invade its neighbor a claim the Kremlin has

strenuously denied.

The Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian analytical group that

uses open-source data to track Russian military movements,

reported Sunday that some Russian forces had moved from

a base in Yelnya, in Russia's Smolensk region, closer to the

Ukrainian border.

According to the CIT, a "massive" Russian base at Yelnya

was nearly empty, in what it described as a "dangerous"

development. The CIT said this suggested that "one scenario

of a Russian attack is a deep thrust south towards Chernihiv

and possibly Kyiv."

Chernihiv is a city in northern Ukraine close to the Belarusian

border, less than 90 miles north of Kyiv. The group said that

transfers of Russian troops to the Russian regions of Crimea,

Rostov and Kursk were also worrying.

24 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION


WWW.M2CC.US Monthly Newsletter | 25

As the United States moved to

strengthen NATO defenses in

Eastern Europe, Germany has

been reluctant to export arms to

Ukraine, much to the consternation

of Kyiv. However, Scholz recently

indicated that "all options"

including halting the controversial

Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that

would deepen Berlin's reliance

on Moscow for energy are on

the table for sanctions in case of a

Russian invasion. Scholz will meet

Putin on Feb. 15.

The pipeline deal has been the

focus of debate in Congress over

a package of sanctions aimed at

Moscow, with Republicans arguing

the administration needs to take a

tougher stance with Germany on

going into business with Moscow.

Sullivan said Sunday that the

pipeline project will not survive a

Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"If Russia invades Ukraine, one

way or another, Nord Stream 2

will not move forward," Sullivan

said on "Meet the Press." "And

Russia understands that. We are

coordinated with our allies in

Europe on that and that will be the

reality if Russia chooses to move


Meanwhile, the head of the

Belarusian Security Council,

Alexander Volfovich, said there

would be "very large" military

maneuvers with Russian forces in

southern Belarus in the coming

days, in response to tensions

between NATO and Russia over

Ukraine. Belarusian President

Alexander Lukashenko has been

playing a key role in Russia's saberrattling

against Ukraine.

U.S. officials are concerned

that the massive Russia-Belarus

military exercise, set to begin

Thursday, could be used as part of a

multipronged invasion of Ukraine.

The exercise has seen Russian

troops and equipment travel more

than 6,000 miles to Belarus, and

the deployment of advanced

missile systems, fighter planes and


allies of ignoring his key demands

to bar Ukraine from joining NATO,

rule out putting offensive strike

weapons on Russia's borders, and

roll back NATO's weaponry and

force posture to its 1997 boundaries.

U.S. and other leaders have said

Putin's demands to bar Ukraine

from joining NATO are a nonstarter,

but they have remained open to

discussing other security concerns.

On Sunday afternoon, Biden was

asked by reporters what factors

Putin was considering in making

his decision.

"I think things he cannot get," Biden


Russia also has attempted to paint

Ukraine as the aggressor in the

crisis, warning that a NATObacked

Kyiv could try to take back

Crimea, which Moscow annexed in

2014. Meanwhile, some Ukrainian

officials, including Zelensky, have

taken issue with Washington's

description of Russian deployments

and the likelihood of an "imminent"

attack, fearing it will cause panic

and hurt Ukraine's economy.

Volfovich accused Ukraine of

threatening Belarus in comments

reported by the BelTA state news

agency Sunday. "We did not

consider the southern direction as

a threat to the country's security

before, but today, based on the

assessment of the military-political

strategic situation, we are forced to

consider the southern direction as

well," he said.

Volfovich's comments came after

2,000 U.S. troops arrived in Poland

and Germany on Sunday to bolster

European security.

Although U.S. officials say they

believe an assault could be launched

any day, optimal conditions are

thought to come between mid-

February and the end of March,

when Ukraine's flat, open terrain

and the rivers crisscrossing it are

frozen, and armored vehicles can

maneuver easily.

One possibility is that Putin may

hold off until after the Winter

Olympics in Beijing conclude Feb.

20, in order not to upset China by

overshadowing the Games and

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threatening Chinese financial

assistance in response to U.S.


Putin, meanwhile, has been

reinforcing his own diplomatic

support network. After a meeting

Friday with Chinese President

Xi Jinping at the opening of the

Olympics, the two leaders issued

a lengthy communique affirming

their mutual grievances over

global issues, including NATO

expansion and security alliances

in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Biden administration has

tried to play down the significance

of Putin's outreach to Xi.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine

could "embarrass Beijing,"

because "it suggests that China

is willing to tolerate or tacitly

support Russia's efforts to coerce

Ukraine," Daniel Kritenbrink, the

top U.S. diplomat for East Asia,

told reporters Friday in a briefing

ahead of the visit.

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The U.S.-based company Maxar

Technologies on Sunday published

satellite images from Friday

showing deployments of Russian

forces in Belarus.

Moscow has denied that it intends to

invade Ukraine but has made clear

it considers the presence of Western

troops and weapons in the former

Soviet sphere an unacceptable

security threat. Putin has accused

the United States and its European

Learn more at frontier.edu/military

26 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

WWW.M2CC.US Monthly Newsletter | 27


contact Kyle.Stephens@mhce.us

28 | M2CC - News www.m2cc.us FEBRUARY 2022 EDITION

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