CM MARCH 2022

International Trade
Monthly round-up of the latest stories
in global trade by Andrea Kirkby.
Stockmarkets indicate opportunities
NIKKEI Asia reckons that
Mongolia’s stockmarket was the
world’s best performer in 2021,
a position closely followed, says
Dragon Capital, by Vietnam. Both
organisations indicate that local markets are
doing quite well.
As for Mongolia, its MSE Top 20
benchmark gained 132.7 percent last year,
the best in the world. While the market isn’t
that familiar to many, the country is known
for its deposits of coal, copper and gold. It
appears that the market has risen because
of Government largesse where, during
lockdowns and an election campaign,
citizens were given cash and utility bill
waivers, the value of which was then put
into stocks.
In terms of the Vietnamese stock market’s
36 percent growth, this may be a function
of government investment in infrastructure
projects estimated to be worth over £60bn
between 2021 and 2025, as well as a stable
growing economy, positive export and
supply chains, a rapidly growing middle
class, and low interest rates. Dragon
Capital is predicting annual GDP growth f
or Vietnam of over seven percent in 2022.
Both these markets are worth a peek if
you’re an exporter looking to grow.
Trade deal should be 'taken with a large pinch of salt' ?
THE UK Government is hoping to land an
‘ambitious’ trade agreement in 2022 despite
slow progress in 2021 when only an 'enhanced
partnership' on health, technology and
vaccine development was agreed.
However, the Best for Britain campaign
group thinks that claims of a prospective deal
should be 'taken with a large pinch of salt'
– given that 'historically India starts rather
more trade talks than it finishes'.
The Department for International Trade
wants an agreement that removes barriers
including cutting tariffs on exports of UKmade
cars and Scotch whisky. However,
it is rumoured that Indian prime minister
Narendra Modi is seeking to tie easier
immigration to the UK to any new trade
agreement.
IF figures from City Broker IG Group
are to be believed, UK exports to the
EU may drop by 7.73 percent by 2025.
This, says the broker, is largely
because smaller EU countries
are benefitting from Britain’s departure
from the European Union.
The company examined export
data looking for the impact of Brexit
UK EXPORTS TO EU MAY DROP
on international trade and areas of
potential growth. It found that the top
three countries that benefitted from
Brexit were Finland, Luxembourg,
and Portugal. But other countries also
benefitted from the vacuum left by
the UK after Brexit including Ireland,
Croatia, Greece, Lithuania, and
Cyprus. Naturally, and this makes
sense, the firm found that the
highest proportional increases
occurred where trade was lower to
begin with.
The report cited Finland as an
example. Exports of aircraft, spacecraft
and allied parts beat estimates by
11,715.28 percent, at €102.71m instead of
a predicted €0.87m.
Brave | Curious | Resilient / www.cicm.com / March 2022 / PAGE 30