September/October 2022

The Business Pilot Barometer
BOUNCING RIGHT BACK
Neil Cooper-Smith, Senior Analyst at Business Pilot, says while the market slowdown is
apparent, there is positive news that for only the second time this year, sales and leads were
on the rise in the last month...
There is little doubt that a slowdown has and
is happening. Year-on-year sales figures
for this August are down seven per cent on
where they were last year. Leads are down 30%.
What we saw, however, last month was a
reversal of the downward trend seen in July with
sales up 16% and leads up 17%. This was also
significantly up on June.
It’s only the second time this year that we have
seen a notable increase in sales and leads. The
last time was in March, when average sales
rose almost 15% and leads were also up 14%,
reversing the falls recorded in February on January.
We suggest that this is attributable in part at
least, to the energy crisis. The spike seen in leads
and sales in March preceded months of media
exposure on the raising of the energy price cap in
April from £1,277 to £1,971.
With homeowners already feeling the pinch of
the first increase, following weeks of expectation
the regulator confirmed at the end of August that
the cap will go up again on 1st October, pushing
average gas and electricity bills to £3,549 a year –
an 80% increase on where it was in October 2021.
A headline analysis of Google Trends also shows
searches for energy efficient home improvements
and windows and doors jumped in the weeks
preceding both announcements, suggesting a
correlation between the increasing cost of energy
and increased demand for windows and doors.
Lender Nationwide has calculated that homes
in the UK most commonly have an Energy
Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of D. This
it says means that the average energy cost
to heat and run those houses will increase by
£1,250 a year from October, inclusive of the £400
government discount.
Bills for E-rated properties are likely to go up by
more than £1,700 and those living in the leastefficient
homes, rated F or G, face a £2,700 rise.
In comparison, Nationwide estimates the cost to
run a house between an A and C rating will rise
by a more modest £1,000.
In this context the case for energy efficient home
improvements is clear – and based on our own
sales data and that of Google search, that isn’t
lost on the homeowner.
The question is, with rising inflation and broader
pressure on household budgets, will they have the
confidence to invest?
The housing market continues to stand firm, in
fact exceeding expectations by recording a 0.8%
price increase in August on July, the thirteenth
successive increase in a row.
With many homeowners having seen significant
rises in the value of their homes, it may give them
confidence to spend on home improvements,
particularly those which lower their energy bills.
There are also growing calls on Government to
incentivise homeowners to do so in the face of
the unfolding national energy crisis.
We’d suggest that right now Government support
is a little way off, so we’re going to have to
persuade those who can, to spend. That makes
it a good time to go back and revisit those leads
that didn’t convert in the past 12 months.
The Business Pilot Barometer offers a monthly analysis of the key trends defining window and door
retail, drawing on real industry data collated by the Business Pilot customer relationship management
system (CRM). Business Pilot uses cloud-based technologies to give installers complete visibility of every
element of their operation from leads and conversions to job scheduling, cost of installation, service
calls, and financial reporting.
www.businesspilot.co.uk www.businesspilot.co.uk/barometer
10 T F SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER 2022
CONNECTING THE WINDOW, DOOR & ROOF FABRICATION SUPPLY CHAIN