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COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE

CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND

CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS Results Panel Probit Analysis of Conservation Amendments To estimate the influences of the indicators on local land use policy change, I employed the random effect panel probit model with the dichotomous variable of conservation amendments using robust standard errors. Before I used robust standard errors in this model, I ran the panel probit model without standard errors to check whether this model is appropriate for this analysis. LR (Likelihood Ratio) test of rho=0 59 is not statistically significant but this does not mean using the panel probit model is not appropriate 60 . However, the Wald tests of model fits for four models (without and with interaction terms) are all statistically significant at p=.01 level. Table 11 shows the results of the panel probit model of conservation amendment of local comprehensive plans. The first column of the table 11 reports the coefficients without interaction effects. There are five variables that are statistically significant: strong mayor form of government (Mayor); council member turnover (Turnover); Regional Planning Council participation (RPC); homogeneity of community (White); and the population (Population). A distinguishing result of this model is that the strong mayor form of government is positively related to the conservation amendments while holding other variables constant (significant at p=.01 level). This confirms the hypothesis of 59 LR test statistics does not appear after standard errors are corrected. 60 When LR test of rho=0 is statistically significant, that means the data structure only allow panel probit model, not pooled probit model. So, even though LR test is not significant, that does not necessarily mean we cannot use panel probit. Rather that means coefficient values are not different between pooled probit and panel probit. In addition, the LR test is very sensitive to adding or dropping an independent variable. So, I keep the panel probit result in this research. 75

mayoral influence on comprehensive plan amendments, meaning that if a city adopted strong mayor form of government, the probability to offer conservation amendments are much higher than the cities with other forms of governments. However, the legislative institution (proportion of council members elected by district) has no significant influence on the pro-environmental land use policy change. This result may be caused by mixed nature of election types mitigating the influence of one election type’s influence on conservation amendments. Table 11. Panel Probit Model of Conservation Amendments 1 Institutions Variables Formal Institutions Mayor Expenditure District Turnover Informal Institutions RPC ILA Community Interests Development Interests Construction Real Estate Environmental Interests White Income Homeownership Degree 1 with Robust Standard Errors Without Interaction .65 (.11)*** 0.00 (0.00) .00 (.00) -.01 (.00)** .30 (.13)** .00 (.00) 1.26 (1.07) 1.05 (1.76) .008 (.004)* -.00 (.00) .004 (.055) .004 (.006) Interaction with Mayor 76 -1.59 (.88)* 0.00 (0.00) .00 (.00) -.01 (.00)** .31 (.14)** .00 (.00) 1.14 (1.21) 1.30 (1.73) .002 (.004) -.00 (.00) .005 (.008) .003 (.007) Interaction with District Election .66 (.11)*** 0.00 (0.00) -.02 (.01) -.01 (.00)** .31 (.14)** .00 (.00) 1.42 (1.09) .92 (1.82) .007 (.004) -.00 (.00) .002 (.006) .002 (.006) Interaction with RPC .63 (.11)*** 0.00 (0.00) .00 (.00) -.01 (.00)** -.92 (.78) .00 (.00) 1.08 (1.07) 1.27 (1.82) .006 (.005) -.00 (.00) .003 (.008) .007 (.005)

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