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Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment ... - NREL

Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment ... - NREL

Canada Economy-Wide

Canada Economy-Wide and Provincial Biofuels Resource Assessments First-Generation Biofuels Potential Ethanol: In Canada, ethanol is produced almost entirely from cereals (corn and wheat). Corn accounted for 77% of all ethanol feedstock in 2006. This percentage is expected to decrease in coming years due to more wheat-based plants under construction. Corn production was about 9 Mt in 2006, 7% of which was used for ethanol production. The majority of domestically produced and imported corn is used by the livestock industry. Wheat production in Canada is much higher, more than 20 Mt annually. Being the world’s second-largest exporter of wheat, after the United States, the majority of this production goes for export (about 17 Mt annually). Less than 1% was used for ethanol production in 2006. If the equivalent of 20% of Canada’s current starch and sugar crops production could be made available for biofuels, for example through increase in crop yields over time, it would yield about 2.18 hm 3 of ethanol or 1 Mt gasoline equivalent per annum. This volume would be sufficient to replace 3.5% of Canada’s current gasoline consumption and 2.3% of its crude oil imports. Biodiesel: The Canadian Canola Growers Association (CCGA) estimated that Canada could produce about 500 million litres (approximately 440,000 tonnes) of biodiesel from domestic feedstock in the 2007-2010 timeframe (Table 5). This volume would replace more than 3% of the current diesel consumption, based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate of 12.5 Mt of diesel consumed in 2005. CCGA’s estimate is at a economy-wide level with no finer geography presented. If the equivalent of 20% of Canada’s current vegetable oil production could be spared for biofuels production, as well as all waste oils and fats, it would yield about 0.55 Mt of biodiesel per annum. Such an amount could displace 4.4% of the economy’s current diesel consumption and 1.2% of its crude oil imports. 27

Table 5. Potential Biodiesel Production in Canada, 2007-2010 Source: CCGA 2006 Second-Generation Biofuels Potential BIOCAP Canada Foundation estimated agricultural crop residues in 2001 (BIOCAP 2003). Total crop production was about 78.3 Mt in 2001, of which 70% was wheat, barley, or tame hay. Crop residues (straw and stover) were estimated at 56.1 Mt (using crop-to-residue ratio), some of which must be left on the field to maintain soil fertility and carbon content. Residues recoverable and sustainably removable were estimated at 29.3 Mt annually; however, some of this goes to traditional uses such as animal bedding and mulching. The study concluded that agricultural biomass available for energy may be 18 Mt annually (Table 6). An analysis by Climate Change Solutions in 2007 estimated the harvest residues available in the key forest provinces (Table 7). In some provinces, much of this material is burned at roadside, both to prevent uncontrolled forest fires and also to clear more land for forest renewal. British Columbia (BC) has the largest harvest, at 87 million m 3 (~ 62 Mt), and slash residues. BC is followed by Quebec in harvest, with 40 million m 3 (~ 29 Mt). In most of the provinces slash is 9-14% of the harvest volumes; however, in BC slash volumes are currently 20-40% of harvest, a phenomenon of the massive harvest of mountain pine beetle (MPB) wood. The MPB population has undergone an unprecedented explosion in BC, spreading from 25,000 hectares (ha) in 1994 to more than 7 million ha in 2004. Of this area, 26% suffered moderate mortality and 11% suffered severe mortality. As a result of the outbreak, dead timber in 2004 is estimated at 170 million m 3 (~ 121 Mt). The annual kill is projected to peak in 2008 at 70 million m 3 (~ 50 Mt) with more than 450 million m 3 (~ 321 Mt) projected to be killed by this time. The outbreak may last for 10 years and kill 80% of merchantable pine (Climate Change Solutions 2006). 28

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