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5 years ago

* I would like to thank Frank Dobbin, Christopher Marquis, Peter ...

* I would like to thank Frank Dobbin, Christopher Marquis, Peter ...

! ! 4! Table 3: Pricing

! ! 4! Table 3: Pricing Above the Range – Logistic Regression (10 year period 2001-2010) FIXED EFFECTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) a (6) a, b (7) a, b Institutional Logics Income -1.287 *** -0.763 * -0.754 * -0.834 * -0.855 * (0.317) (0.373) (0.378) (0.406) (0.408) Growth 1.119 *** 0.793 ** 0.850 ** 0.924 ** 0.880 ** (0.246) (0.288) (0.298) (0.322) (0.322) Power / Agency Private Equity (PE) Ownership -0.492 -0.0363 -0.489 -0.242 -0.259 -0.355 -0.355 (0.434) (0.453) (0.442) (0.461) (0.467) (0.500) (0.503) PE Tie to Underwriter 0.234 0.250 0.237 0.251 0.261 0.321 0.316 (0.320) (0.328) (0.326) (0.330) (0.334) (0.356) (0.358) PE Fund Size ($ billions) -0.0000329 -0.000299 -0.000440 -0.000503 -0.000476 -0.000353 -0.000323 (0.00124) (0.00129) (0.00131) (0.00132) (0.00132) (0.00141) (0.00144) Cost Substitution Litigation Risk -2.673 * -2.649 * -2.737 ** -2.703 ** -2.755 ** -2.663 * -2.618 * (1.041) (1.038) (1.040) (1.039) (1.046) (1.120) (1.136) Non-Bayesian Investor Shiller Investor Confidence Index 0.0275 0.0294 0.0352 0.0342 0.0250 0.0419 0.0816 (0.0268) (0.0273) (0.0272) (0.0274) (0.0473) (0.0507) (0.0534) Baker-Wurgler Sentiment Index -0.221 -0.212 -0.132 -0.153 -0.854 -0.972 (0.270) (0.271) (0.272) (0.272) (0.650) (0.704) Number of IPOs in Month -0.00172 (0.0181) Dividend Premium -0.0527 (0.0442) NYSE Monthly Turnover -1.422 (1.355) Closed-End Fund Discount 0.0230 (0.0748) Equity Share of Total Issuance -3.905 (3.659) Non-SEU Issuer Management Ownership 0.706 * 0.486 1.281 *** 0.984 * 1.060 ** 1.112 * 1.076 * (0.349) (0.351) (0.382) (0.402) (0.408) (0.445) (0.445) Secondary Portion -0.389 -0.491 -0.324 -0.396 -0.396 -0.584 -0.606 (0.383) (0.386) (0.391) (0.392) (0.400) (0.444) (0.448) Information Asymmetry Average Underwriter Status 0.175 0.175 0.106 0.125 0.138 0.0930 0.108 (0.105) (0.104) (0.107) (0.107) (0.109) (0.119) (0.119) Market Conditions Dow Jones Industry Sector Index 0.0606 *** 0.0616 *** 0.0586 *** 0.0596 *** 0.0613 *** 0.0620 *** 0.0712 *** (0.0144) (0.0147) (0.0146) (0.0147) (0.0159) (0.0173) (0.0177) Market Volatility (VIX) 0.0124 0.00175 0.00380 -0.000120 -0.0105 -0.00983 0.0453 (0.0296) (0.0301) (0.0302) (0.0303) (0.0441) (0.0469) (0.0579) Log S&P500 Index 2.023 2.032 1.788 1.867 5.762 6.540 * 4.765 (1.153) (1.164) (1.171) (1.173) (3.101) (3.309) (3.250) S&P500 One-day Return 0.0180 0.0140 0.0201 0.0173 0.00364 0.0135 0.0160 (0.115) (0.116) (0.117) (0.118) (0.119) (0.128) (0.130) S&P500 One-month Return 0.0254 0.0144 0.0240 0.0179 -0.00535 0.00309 0.0122 (0.0328) (0.0334) (0.0332) (0.0335) (0.0386) (0.0412) (0.0382) Fundamentals Log Offering Size ($ millions) 0.561 *** 0.627 *** 0.796 *** 0.766 *** 0.774 *** 0.861 *** 0.858 *** (0.136) (0.137) (0.148) (0.148) (0.153) (0.175) (0.178) Log Age (years) -0.313 * -0.229 -0.230 -0.205 -0.220 -0.280 -0.266 (0.134) (0.139) (0.138) (0.140) (0.141) (0.156) (0.155) Debt to Cap (inverse for negative) -0.0438 -0.0103 -0.0165 -0.0101 -0.00737 -0.0100 -0.00985 (0.0889) (0.0329) (0.0415) (0.0329) (0.0288) (0.0357) (0.0381) Revenues (standardized) -0.340 -0.326 -0.359 * -0.346 * -0.357 * -0.404 * -0.412 *

! ! 5! (0.185) (0.175) (0.179) (0.175) (0.178) (0.190) (0.192) Operating Cashflow (standardized) -0.100 -0.103 -0.110 -0.110 -0.110 -0.0750 -0.0652 (0.106) (0.0996) (0.102) (0.0997) (0.0986) (0.104) (0.105) Positive Earnings 0.499 * 0.534 * 0.561 * 0.561 * 0.584 * 0.562 * 0.548 * (0.223) (0.226) (0.229) (0.229) (0.232) (0.255) (0.256) Macroeconomic Employment Growth 0.0256 * 0.0252 * 0.0266 * 0.0260 * 0.0282 0.0324 * 0.0241 (0.0123) (0.0125) (0.0126) (0.0126) (0.0146) (0.0159) (0.0167) Recession Month 0.465 0.531 0.499 0.526 0.527 0.585 0.701 (0.482) (0.485) (0.489) (0.488) (0.580) (0.614) (0.698) Industrial Production Growth 0.00268 0.00238 0.00297 0.00269 0.00270 0.00303 0.00314 (0.00209) (0.00210) (0.00214) (0.00213) (0.00226) (0.00244) (0.00261) Real Consumption Growth -0.0000944 -0.000449 -0.000287 -0.000450 -0.000517 -0.000787 -0.000801 (0.00219) (0.00224) (0.00222) (0.00224) (0.00247) (0.00268) (0.00274) Intercept -22.45 * -22.99 * -22.78 * -23.03 * -61.56 -55.54 * -48.31 (10.03) (10.15) (10.18) (10.21) (474.2) (24.26) (24.87) RANDOM EFFECTS SIC Log Standard Deviation -0.260 -0.252 Observations 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 Pseudo R 2 0.133 0.155 0.160 0.165 0.173 0.181 0.184 Log-likelihood -353.3 -344.4 -342.6 -340.5 -336.9 -333.8 -332.5 AIC 756.6 740.8 737.2 734.9 745.9 741.6 747.1 BIC 873.9 862.8 859.2 861.7 914.9 915.3 939.6 Note: Unadjusted standard errors in parentheses. Missing data: list-wise deletion applied to 5 cases missing underwriter status or pricing above the range information (total sample 813). Multiple imputation of missing data does not alter results (implemented in R with Amelia and Zelig). McFadden pseudo-R 2 calculated on log likelihood of -407.6 for null model. (PE = Private Equity). a Models 5, 6 and 7: Logit models controlling for offering year fixed effects. Offering years’ fixed effects not shown. b Models 6 and 7: Mixed effect logit models simultaneously clustering issuers by four-digit SIC codes (estimation fit using adaptive Gauss-Hermite approximation with 7 integration points) and controlling for offering year fixed effects with dummy variables. Offering years’ fixed effects not shown. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001 (two-tailed tests)

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