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Review of Maritime Transport 2011 - Unctad

Review of Maritime Transport 2011 - Unctad

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Developments in international seaborne trade The world economic situation has brightened in 2010. However, multiple risks threaten to undermine the prospects of a sustained recovery and a stable world economy – including sovereign debt problems in many developed regions, and fiscal austerity. These risks are further magnified by the extraordinary shocks that have occurred in 2011, which have included natural disasters and political unrest, as well as rising and volatile energy and commodity prices. Given that for shipping, all stands and falls with worldwide macroeconomic conditions, the developments in world seaborne trade mirrored the performance of the wider economy. After contracting in 2009, international shipping experienced an upswing in demand in 2010, and recorded a positive turnaround in seaborne trade volumes especially in the dry bulk and container trade segments. However, the outlook remains fragile, as seaborne trade is subject to the same uncertainties and shocks that face the world economy. Structure, ownership and registration of the world fleet The year 2010 saw record deliveries of new tonnage, 28 per cent higher than in 2009, resulting in an 8.6 per cent growth in the world fleet. Deliveries amounted to 11.7 per cent of the existing fleet; the previous peak had been in 1974, when deliveries amounted to approximately 11 per cent of the existing fleet. The world merchant fleet reached almost 1.4 billion deadweight tons in January 2011, an increase of 120 million dwt over 2010. New deliveries stood at 150 million dwt, against demolitions and other withdrawals from the market of approximately 30 million dwt. Since 2005, the dry bulk fleet has almost doubled, and the containership fleet has nearly tripled. The share of foreign-flagged tonnage reached an estimated 68 per cent in January 2011. The surge in vessel supply is the result of orders placed before the economic crisis. This, combined with lowerthan-expected demand, has led to a situation where there is an excess supply of shipping capacity. In the dry bulk and container sectors especially, analysts EXECUTIVE SUMMARY forecast an oversupply of tonnage in coming years. In both sectors, recent and upcoming record-sized newbuildings pose a further challenge to owners, who will need to find cargo to fill their ships. Price of vessels and freight rates The price of newbuildings was lower for all vessels types in 2010, reflecting market views that the capacity of the world fleet is sufficient to meet world trade in the short-term. In the second-hand market, the results were mixed. The larger oil tankers held their value, while smaller tankers and specialized product tankers declined in value. In the dry bulk sector, the price of medium-sized Panamax vessels decreased, while the price of smaller and larger vessels increased. The price for all sizes of secondhand container ships also rose in value during 2010 as trade volumes recovered. Freight rates in the tanker sector performed better than the previous year, rising between 30 and 50 per cent by the end of 2010. Every month for all vessel types was better than the corresponding month for the previous year. However, tanker freight rates in general still remained depressed, compared with the years immediately preceding the 2008 peak. Freight rates in the dry bulk sector performed well for the first half of the year, but the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) lost more than half its value from the end of May 2010 to mid-July 2010. A partial rally occurred in August 2010 before the Index continued its downward trajectory. Between May 2010 and May 2011, the BDI declined by about two thirds. Container freight rates in 2010 witnessed a major transformation brought about by a boost in exports and measures introduced by shipowners to limit vessel oversupply. The result can be seen in the New ConTex Index, which tripled in value from early 2010 to mid-2011. Port and multimodal transport developments World container port throughput increased by an estimated 13.3 per cent to 531.4 million TEUs in 2010 after stumbling briefly in 2009. Chinese mainland ports continued to increase their share of total world container port throughput to 24.2 per cent. The xv

xvi UNCTAD Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) reveals that China continues its lead as the single most connected country, followed by Hong Kong SAR, Singapore and Germany. In 2011, 91 countries increased their LSCI ranking over 2010, 6 saw no change, and 65 recorded a decrease. In 2010, the rail freight sector grew by 7.2 per cent to reach 9,843 billion freight ton kilometres (FTKs). The road freight sector grew by 7.8 per cent in 2010 over the previous year with volumes reaching 9,721 billion FTKs. Legal issues and regulatory developments Important legal issues and recent regulatory developments in the fileds of transport and trade facilitation included the entry into force on 14 September 2011 of the International Convention on Arrest of Ships, which had been adopted at a joint United Nations/International Maritime Organization (IMO) Diplomatic Conference held in 1999 under the auspices of UNCTAD. Moreover, during 2010 and the first half of 2011, important discussions continued at IMO regarding the scope and content of a possible international regime to control greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping. Finally, there were a number of regulatory developments in relation to maritime security and safety, as well as in respect of trade facilitation agreements at both the multilateral and the regional levels. REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2011 Developing countries’ participation in Maritime Businesses Developing countries are expanding their participation in a range of different maritime businesses. They already hold strong positions in ship scrapping, ship registration, and the supply of seafarers, and they have growing market shares in more capital-intensive or technologically advanced maritime sectors such as ship construction and shipowning. China and the Republic of Korea between them built 72.4 per cent of world ship capacity (dwt) in 2010, and 9 of the 20 largest countries in shipowning are developing countries. Ship financing, insurance services and vessel classification are among the few maritime sectors that have so far been dominated by the more advanced economies. However, here, too, developing countries have recently demonstrated their potential to become major market players. India, for instance, joined the International Association of Classification Societies; through this it gains easier access to the global ship classification market. China now has two of the world’s largest banks in ship financing.

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  • Page 19 and 20: 2 A. WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND P
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    CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE, OWNERSHIP AND

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    CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE, OWNERSHIP AND

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    CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE, OWNERSHIP AND

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    CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE, OWNERSHIP AND

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    CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE, OWNERSHIP AND

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    CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE, OWNERSHIP AND

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    CHAPTER 2: STRUCTURE, OWNERSHIP AND

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    64 A. OVERVIEW OF THE DETERMINANTS

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    66 liner operators to adopt measure

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    68 Figure 3.1. Tanker freight marke

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    70 VLCCs. Average Suezmax freight r

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    72 have an effect on destabilizing

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    74 points and ended the year at 1,7

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    76 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 201

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    78 Table 3.6. Container ship time c

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    80 Figure 3.6. Container prices (20

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    82 Figure 3.8. Tons carried per dea

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    84 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 201

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    86 A. PORT DEVELOPMENTS 1. Containe

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    88 Table 4.1. Container port traffi

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    90 so-called hub ports, basically a

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    92 In Costa Rica, APMT won a 33-yea

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    94 causing concern about the viabil

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    96 Box 4.1. The recent minerals boo

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    98 showing interest in the signific

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    100 projects and in a few large dev

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    102 4. Railways transport developme

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    104 Box 4.3. Private-sector partici

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    106 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    108 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    110 A. IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS IN TR

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    112 Exercise of the right of arrest

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    114 that international shipping emi

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    116 A report of the Working Group 4

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    118 By contrast, a number of other

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    120 the IMO Maritime Safety Committ

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    122 implementation of the SAFE Fram

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    124 Box 5.1. The International Ship

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    126 Memorandum of Understanding (Mo

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    128 (c) New certification requireme

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    130 national and regional developme

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    132 Figure 5.2. Overview of “WTO-

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    134 Source: For official status inf

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    136 19 Berlingieri on Arrest of Shi

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    138 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    140 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’ PARTICIPATI

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    172 a b c d Annex I. Classification

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    174 Annex I. Classification of coun

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    176 Annex II. World seaborne trade

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    178 Annex II. World seaborne trade

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    180 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    182 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    184 Annex III. (b) Merchant fleets

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    186 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    188 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    190 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    192 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    194 Annex IV. True nationality of t

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    196 Country or territory of ownersh

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    198 Country or territory of ownersh

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    200 Country or territory of ownersh

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    202 Annex V. Container port through

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    204 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    206 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    208 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    210 Annex VII. Countries’ market

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    212 Annex VII. Countries’ market

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    QUESTIONNAIRE Review of Maritime Tr

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