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Review of Maritime Transport 2011 - Unctad

Review of Maritime Transport 2011 - Unctad

DEVELOPMENTS IN

DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE CHAPTER 1 The world economic situation has brightened in 2010. However, multiple risks threaten to undermine the prospects of a sustained recovery and a stable world economy – including sovereign debt problems in many developed regions, and fiscal austerity. These risks are further magnified by the extraordinary shocks that have occurred in 2011, which have included natural disasters and political unrest, as well as rising and volatile energy and commodity prices. Given that for shipping, all stands and falls with worldwide macroeconomic conditions, the developments in world seaborne trade mirrored the performance of the wider economy. After contracting in 2009, international shipping experienced an upswing in demand in 2010, and recorded a positive turnaround in seaborne trade volumes especially in the dry bulk and container trade segments. However, the outlook remains fragile, as seaborne trade is subject to the same uncertainties and shocks that face the world economy. This chapter covers developments from January 2010 to June 2011. Section A reviews the overall performance of the global economy and world merchandise trade. Section B considers developments in world seaborne trade volumes and looks at trends unfolding in the economic sectors and activities that generate demand for shipping services, including oil and gas, mining, agriculture and steel production. Section C highlights some developments that are currently affecting maritime transport and have the potential to deeply reshape the landscape of international shipping and seaborne trade.

2 A. WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS 1 1. World economic growth 2 In 2010, the world economy embarked on a recovery path with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at 3.9 per cent over the previous year (table 1.1). The stimulus measures taken by governments at the onset of the crisis helped jump-start growth. However, the effect of these measures started to fade away as governments initiated a shift towards fiscal consolidation. The end of the inventory cycle, the downside risks in developed economies and the dampening effect on GDP growth of rising energy prices, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $80 per barrel in 2010 against $62 per barrel in 2009, 3 have combined to also slow down growth in the second half of the year. In 2010, developed economies recorded positive growth, with their GDP expanding by 2.5 per cent. The United States and Japan performed better than the European Union, growing respectively by 2.9 per cent, 4.0 per cent and 1.8 per cent. Developing economies and economies in transition continued to drive the global recovery with the rebound being led by large emerging economies, in particular China (10.3 per cent), India (8.6 per cent) and Brazil (7.5 per cent). Almost unburdened by the financial crisis and consequent economic downturn, China, India and other developing countries resumed their expansion by generating their own growth instead of relying on exports to developed economies’ markets. While the Unites States remains the main source of import demand for Asia, China has evolved into an independent engine of regional growth and a larger source of final demand for a number of emerging developing economies, including the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, Province of China. 4 The lead taken by developing countries in powering global growth reflects a shake-up in the world’s economic order which has taken decades to unfold. UNCTAD data show that the share of developing countries in the global economic output rose from about 17 per cent in 1980 to over 28 per cent in 2010, raising the influence of these countries in the world’s economic performance. In 2010, China overtook Japan as the world’s second biggest economy (in nominal terms) and is leading the transformation REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2011 together with some of the world’s fastest-growing economies such as India and Indonesia. An important economic milestone in 2010 was Brazil’s ranking as the world’s seventh largest economy after surpassing Italy. 5 Goldman Sachs is now predicting that the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russian Federation, India and China) will overtake the G–7 countries in size of their economies by 2018, i.e. much sooner than its original prediction of 2040 made a decade ago. 6 The overall strong performance of developing countries as a group conceals differences between countries and groupings. For example, GDP growth in South Africa (2.8 per cent) was much lower than the rates recorded by China, India and Brazil. Similarly, the recovery in many of the least developed countries (LDCs) remained below their potential with GDP growth (4.8 per cent) not returning to its pre-crisis levels. The economic downturn and consequent increase in unemployment, together with the drop in social spending, can cause a serious setback to social equity and poverty alleviation. Although some ground has been gained, between 2007 and the end of 2009, at least 30 million jobs are estimated to have been lost worldwide as a result of the global financial crisis. 7 The global economy still needs to create at least another 22 million jobs to return to the pre-crisis level of global employment. 8 It is further estimated that 47 million to 84 million more people are falling into or staying in extreme poverty because of the global crisis. 9 While these considerations are not specific to the LDCs, they are nevertheless more detrimental for these countries in view of their inherent vulnerability to any erosion in economic and development gains achieved as part of efforts to attain the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Trends in world industrial production – a leading indicator of demand for maritime transport services – mirrored the developments in world GDP. The industrial production index published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows that the index for OECD countries, with 1990 as the base year, fell in 2009, before rebounding in 2010 for both OECD and non-OECD countries. The pacesetters were the Republic of Korea and China, with their 2010 industrial production expanding by 17.2 per cent and 15.7 per cent, respectively. 10 The strong correlation between industrial activity, GDP growth, merchandise and seaborne trade continues unabated, as shown in figure 1.1. The deep contraction of 2009 is followed by a V-shaped recovery

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    64 A. OVERVIEW OF THE DETERMINANTS

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    66 liner operators to adopt measure

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    68 Figure 3.1. Tanker freight marke

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    76 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 201

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    78 Table 3.6. Container ship time c

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    80 Figure 3.6. Container prices (20

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    86 A. PORT DEVELOPMENTS 1. Containe

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    88 Table 4.1. Container port traffi

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    90 so-called hub ports, basically a

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    92 In Costa Rica, APMT won a 33-yea

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    94 causing concern about the viabil

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    96 Box 4.1. The recent minerals boo

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    98 showing interest in the signific

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    100 projects and in a few large dev

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    102 4. Railways transport developme

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    104 Box 4.3. Private-sector partici

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    110 A. IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS IN TR

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    112 Exercise of the right of arrest

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    114 that international shipping emi

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    116 A report of the Working Group 4

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    118 By contrast, a number of other

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    120 the IMO Maritime Safety Committ

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    122 implementation of the SAFE Fram

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    124 Box 5.1. The International Ship

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    126 Memorandum of Understanding (Mo

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    128 (c) New certification requireme

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    130 national and regional developme

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    132 Figure 5.2. Overview of “WTO-

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    134 Source: For official status inf

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    136 19 Berlingieri on Arrest of Shi

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    DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’ PARTICIPATI

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    172 a b c d Annex I. Classification

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    174 Annex I. Classification of coun

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    176 Annex II. World seaborne trade

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    178 Annex II. World seaborne trade

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    180 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    184 Annex III. (b) Merchant fleets

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    186 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    188 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    190 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    194 Annex IV. True nationality of t

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    196 Country or territory of ownersh

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    198 Country or territory of ownersh

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    200 Country or territory of ownersh

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    202 Annex V. Container port through

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    204 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    206 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    208 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    210 Annex VII. Countries’ market

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    212 Annex VII. Countries’ market

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    QUESTIONNAIRE Review of Maritime Tr

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