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Review of Maritime Transport 2011 - Unctad

Review of Maritime Transport 2011 - Unctad

CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS

CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 3 Table 1.1. World economic growth, 2007–2011 a (annual percentage change) Region/country 1991–2004 Average 2007 2008 2009 2010 b 2011 c WORLD 2.9 4.0 1.7 -2.1 3.9 3.1 Developed economies 2.6 2.6 0.3 -3.6 2.5 1.8 of which: United States 3.4 2.1 0.4 -2.6 2.9 2.3 Japan 1.0 2.4 -1.2 -6.3 4.0 -0.4 European Union (27) 2.3 3.0 0.5 -4.2 1.8 1.9 of which: Germany 1.6 2.7 1.0 -4.7 3.6 3.0 France 2.1 2.4 0.2 -2.6 1.5 2.1 Italy 1.5 1.5 -1.3 -5.0 1 0.9 United Kingdom 2.9 2.7 -0.1 -4.9 1.3 1.3 Developing economies 4.7 8.0 5.4 2.5 7.4 6.3 of which: China 9.9 14.2 9.6 9.1 10.3 9.4 India 5.9 9.6 5.1 7.0 8.6 8.1 Brazil 2.6 6.1 5.2 -0.6 7.5 4.0 South Africa 2.5 5.5 3.7 -1.8 2.8 4.0 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) 4.6 8.5 6.7 4.5 4.8 5.2 Transition economies -1.0 8.6 5.4 -6.7 4.1 4.4 of which: Russian Federation -1.0 8.5 5.6 -7.9 4.0 4.4 Sources: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN–DESA), National Accounts Main Aggregates database, and World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2011: Mid-year Update; Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 2011; OECD. Stat database; and national sources. a Calculations for country aggregates are based on GDP at constant 2005 dollars. b Preliminary estimates. c Forecasts. in all indicators with signs of some stabilization in 2011. Interestingly, some decoupling between GDP growth and the industrial production, reflecting partly the growing contribution of services to GDP, can be observed. Equally, seaborne trade grows faster than both the industrial production and GDP, also reflecting, in particular the rapid expansion in container trade which carries semi-finished and manufactured goods (consumer goods and durables). The world recovery is set to continue, albeit at a slower pace, with world GDP projected to grow by 3.1 per cent in 2011. While GDP growth in all economies is expected to decelerate, the recovery continues to be driven by emerging developing markets. However, these projections are subject to many downside risks which can derail growth. These include renewed stresses in the euro area, sovereign risks, high unemployment in advanced economies, rising food and commodity prices, the risk of a rise in trade protectionism, inflationary pressures in emerging markets, and the end of the stimulus funding impact as all countries, with the exception of the United States, proceed with fiscal consolidation. In addition, the world economy is facing new problems stemming

4 from a number of exceptional events. These include (a) some of the worst natural disasters in history, such as the floods and cyclones hitting Australia and the triple disaster of earthquake, a tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan; (b) political unrest in Western Asia and North Africa; and (c) a continued trend of higher oil prices and global energy insecurity. Oil prices (Brent) edging up in April to $125 per barrel could act as a drag on economic growth. Already, in 2011, a softening in household consumption demand and rising inflation is being observed in many economies. 11 These factors are combining to erode the gains from the rapid yet fragile recovery of 2010 and are undermining the prospects of more sustainable future economic growth. With Japan representing the world’s third largest economy and a key player in industrial networks, the ripple effects of the disaster in Japan are being felt globally due to the disrupted production networks and reduced business confidence. Japan’s retail REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2011 Figure 1.1. Indices for world GDP, the OECD Industrial Production Index, world merchandise trade and world seaborne trade (1975–2011) (1990=100) 300 250 200 150 100 50 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 World merchandise trade World seaborne trade World GDP OECD Industrial Production Index Source: UNCTAD secretariat, on the basis of OECD Main Economic Indicators, May 2011; UNCTAD’s The Trade and Development Report 2011; UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport, various issues; WTO’s International Trade Statistics 2010, Table A1a; and the World Trade Organization (WTO) press release issued in March 2011, “World trade 2010, prospects for 2011”. WTO merchandise trade data (volumes) are derived from customs values deflated by standard unit values and adjusted price index for electronic goods. The 2011 index for seaborne trade is calculated on the basis of the growth rate forecast by Clarkson Research Services. sales are estimated to have dropped by 8 per cent and household spending by 2 per cent. 12 Preliminary estimates indicate that the value of damage to building and infrastructure is nearing 25 trillion Yen or about $300 billion. 13 Another estimate by the World Bank puts the cost of the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami to Japan’s economy at $122 billion–$235 billion. 14 These figures are equivalent to 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent of the country’s GDP in 2010. Some data confirmed the severity of the impact of the earthquake in Japan and its economy, with industrial production falling by 15 per cent (annualized rate) in March 2011, the sharpest monthly drop on record. 15 UNCTAD revised downward projections for Japan’s GDP growth, although reconstruction and investment activity are likely to revive the economy. In sum, while the overall economic situation in 2010 has brightened and expectations for 2011 remain positive, multiple risks are currently clouding the prospects of a sustained recovery and a stable world

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    64 A. OVERVIEW OF THE DETERMINANTS

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    66 liner operators to adopt measure

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    68 Figure 3.1. Tanker freight marke

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    70 VLCCs. Average Suezmax freight r

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    72 have an effect on destabilizing

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    74 points and ended the year at 1,7

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    76 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 201

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    78 Table 3.6. Container ship time c

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    80 Figure 3.6. Container prices (20

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    82 Figure 3.8. Tons carried per dea

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    84 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 201

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    86 A. PORT DEVELOPMENTS 1. Containe

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    88 Table 4.1. Container port traffi

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    90 so-called hub ports, basically a

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    92 In Costa Rica, APMT won a 33-yea

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    94 causing concern about the viabil

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    96 Box 4.1. The recent minerals boo

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    98 showing interest in the signific

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    100 projects and in a few large dev

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    102 4. Railways transport developme

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    104 Box 4.3. Private-sector partici

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    106 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    108 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    110 A. IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS IN TR

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    112 Exercise of the right of arrest

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    114 that international shipping emi

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    116 A report of the Working Group 4

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    118 By contrast, a number of other

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    120 the IMO Maritime Safety Committ

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    122 implementation of the SAFE Fram

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    124 Box 5.1. The International Ship

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    126 Memorandum of Understanding (Mo

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    128 (c) New certification requireme

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    130 national and regional developme

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    132 Figure 5.2. Overview of “WTO-

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    134 Source: For official status inf

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    136 19 Berlingieri on Arrest of Shi

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    138 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    140 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’ PARTICIPATI

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    CHAPTER 6: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’

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    172 a b c d Annex I. Classification

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    174 Annex I. Classification of coun

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    176 Annex II. World seaborne trade

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    178 Annex II. World seaborne trade

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    180 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    182 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    184 Annex III. (b) Merchant fleets

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    186 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    188 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    190 Total fleet Oil tankers REVIEW

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    192 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 20

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    194 Annex IV. True nationality of t

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    196 Country or territory of ownersh

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    198 Country or territory of ownersh

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    200 Country or territory of ownersh

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    202 Annex V. Container port through

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    204 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    206 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    208 Annex VI. UNCTAD Liner Shipping

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    210 Annex VII. Countries’ market

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    212 Annex VII. Countries’ market

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    QUESTIONNAIRE Review of Maritime Tr

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