Gastroenterology Today Spring 2025
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Volume 34 No. 9 Spring 2025
CONTENTS
CONTENTS
Gastroenterology Today
4 EDITOR’S COMMENT
This issue edited by:
Samuel Lim
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7 FEATURE Optimal endoscopy timing in elderly patients
presenting with acute non-variceal upper
gastrointestinal bleeding
17 FEATURE Health-care resource use and costs associated with
inflammatory bowel disease in northwest London:
a retrospective linked database study
30 COMPANY NEWS
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EDITOR’S COMMENT
EDITOR’S COMMENT
“The
management
of inflammatory
bowel disease
(IBD) presents
a significant
healthcare and
economic burden,
particularly in
high-income
countries where
prevalence is
increasing.”
Health-care resource use and costs associated with inflammatory bowel disease in northwest London: a
retrospective linked database study and Optimal endoscopy timing in elderly patients presenting with acute
non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding
The management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) presents a significant healthcare and economic
burden, particularly in high-income countries where prevalence is increasing.
In this edition of Gastroenterology Today we highlight a recent retrospective study analysing real-world data
from northwest London which provides valuable insight into resource utilisation and healthcare cost with IBD
management.
The findings from Ul-Haq et al demonstrate that active disease is more expensive and resource-intensive,
with both greater mean use of healthcare resources and greater healthcare costs seen in active disease.
Inpatient hospital care - both elective and non-elective - was identified as the primary cost driver,
emphasising the financial impact of poorly controlled IBD.
There are several limitations associated with this study, the most notable being a definition of active disease
based on changes of medication or dose rather than the standard clinical, biochemical, endoscopic or
histologic parameters, and the narrow geographical scope of the participants.
Nonetheless, the overarching message reinforces the economic and clinical rationale for early intervention
and the proactive use of effective therapies to induce and maintain remission so as to enhance patient
outcomes and reduce long-term healthcare costs associated with IBD.
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Training designed and delivered by IBD nurses for IBD nurses
Samuel Lim
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Publishers Comment
On behalf of everyone involved with the publishing of Gastroenterology Today I would like to say a big
thank you to our contributors for their input and a special thank you to our advertisers as without their
ongoing support we would not be able to print and despatch copies of this very unique publication to all
Gastroenterology Departments and Endoscopy Units.
Terry Gardner
Publisher
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FEATURE
Rethinking
gastroscopy
OPTIMAL ENDOSCOPY TIMING IN
ELDERLY PATIENTS PRESENTING
WITH ACUTE NON-VARICEAL UPPER
GASTROINTESTINAL BLEEDING
Yavuz Cagir 1* , Muhammed Bahaddin Durak 2 and Ilhami Yuksel 1,3
Cagir et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:444 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-024-03541-z
referrals
to improve
RESEARCH
Abstract
Background To evaluate the optimal endoscopy time in elderly
patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB)
based on clinical outcomes.
Highlights
• UGIB is a significant clinical concern in older persons, who
have higher rates of hospitalized adverse events and death than
young patients.
• Because mortality tends to be higher in older patients with UGIB,
determining the best endoscopic time becomes even more difficult.
• Close monitoring, risk stratification, and good endoscopic and
medical treatment are important approaches for decreasing poor
case-selection
Detects atrophic gastritis before endoscopy
Prioritise referrals according to clinical need
Methods Patients over 65 years of age presenting with NVUGIB
are three patient groups based on endoscopy timing: very early
endoscopy (< 12 h), early endoscopy (12–24 h) and late endoscopy (>
24 h). Endoscopic intervention was undertaken during the first 12 h for
patients who had unstable hemodynamic settings, ongoing bleeding,
or a low hematocrit despite transfusion. The clinical outcomes
investigated were: The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality, with the
need for endoscopic intervention, rebleeding, and length of hospital
stay considered as secondary endpoints.
clinical outcomes in the elderly with UGIB.
• Very early endoscopy group over the age of 65 is associated with
less surgical/radiological intervention and lower 30-day mortality.
• The establishment of a health assessment strategy for older patients
presenting with acute UGIB should be advantageous, considering
the rise in comorbidities associated with aging concomitant
medications, and various chronic diseases that have contributed to
morbidity and death.
• Early endoscopy may be beneficial in the therapy of acute UGIB,
particularly in the elderly with significant comorbidities and
Results The study population was 468, 260 of whom were ≥ 65 years.
severe bleeding.
Streamlined diagnostic pathway
Early detection and diagnosis for timely intervention
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Based on the timing of endoscopy, very early endoscopy (within 12 h)
was performed in 180 (69.2%) patients aged > 65 years and 150 (72.1%)
younger patients (p > 0.05). Early endoscopy (12–24 h) was performed in
patients aged > 65 years and younger patients 53 (20.4%) vs. 41 (19.7%),
respectively, while late endoscopy (24–48 h) was performed in 27
(10.4%) vs. 17 (8.2%) patients, respectively (p > 0.05, for all parameters).
The clinical results of subgroups based on endoscopy time in the ≥
65 population and comparisons between groups. When groups were
compared, it was found that the very early endoscopy group had a
considerably lower likelihood of need for surgical/radiological intervention
than the late endoscopy group [3 (1,7) vs. (3,7), p = 0.016], and 30-day
mortality rates by the endoscopy timing were statistically significantly
different in the very early group (15.6%), early endoscopy group (7.5%),
and late endoscopy group (29.6%) (p < 0.05, for all groups). Endoscopy
time within 24–48 h (late) (OR: 3.133, 95%Cl: 1.127–8.713, p: 0.029) was
an independent predictor of rebleeding during the hospital stay.
Conclusions Early endoscopy may benefit the management of acute
UGIB, especially in the elderly population with high comorbidities and
the severity of bleeding.
*Correspondence:
Yavuz Cagir
yvzcgr@hotmail.com
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
Keywords Upper gastrointestinal bleeding, Early endoscopy, Elderly
patient, 30-day mortality
Introduction
Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is among the top causes
of morbidity and mortality [1, 2]. Endoscopy is commonly suggested
for patients with UGIB not only for diagnosis but endoscopic treatment
in active bleeding lesions also [3, 4]. The European Society of
Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) recommends performing UGIB
endoscopy during the first 24 h of presentation to identify the origin
of the bleeding, risk-stratify patients, and suggest viable endoscopic
therapies [5].
UGIB is a major clinical concern in older adults, who have higher
rates of in-hospital adverse events and mortality than those who
are younger, regardless of improvements in endoscopic hemostasis
and diagnostic and treatment options [6, 7]. Factors including the
patient’s characteristics, the cause of the bleeding, and the timing of
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
7
FEATURE
FEATURE
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
therapy all have a significant impact on the mortality and morbidity
outcomes linked to UGIB. It is estimated that 35–45% of UGIB
presentations include individuals over the age of 60 [8, 9]. This
population is more vulnerable to UGIB complications, most likely owing
to a higher proportion of concomitant diseases and the widespread
use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or antiplatelet
agents [10, 11].
Despite effective endoscopic hemostasis reduces mortality and
hospital stay, early endoscopy is associated with numerous
consequences (aspiration pneumonia, acute coronary syndrome, etc.)
[12, 13]. Optimal endoscopy timing becomes even more complicated
when taking into account the higher probability of mortality in the
elderly presenting with UGIB.
The current study aimed to evaluate the optimal endoscopy time in
elderly patients based on clinical outcomes.
Materials and methods
Study population and data collection
This study includes patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal
bleeding (NVUGIB) who were hospitalized in the emergency
department of a tertiary referral center between January 2019 and
April 2020. The analysis excluded patients under 18, patients with
missing data, individuals who refused endoscopy, and those who
could not undergo endoscopy due to poor clinical status. Based on the
endoscopy timing, patients with acute UGIB are categorized into three
patient groups: very early endoscopy (< 12 h), early endoscopy (12–24
h), and late endoscopy (> 24 h). The institutional review board approved
this study (E1/22/2951).
Prospectively, information was obtained about the hemodynamic
state, previous medical history, laboratory and endoscopic findings,
and symptoms associated with bleeding. The hospital’s electronic
medical records system was used to document hospitalization, blood
transfusions, endoscopic procedures, interventional radiology or
surgery, rebleeding, and 30-day mortality. At admission, the AIMS65
score, the Clinical Rockall Score (CCRS), and the Glasgow Blatchford
Score (GBS) were evaluated. Following endoscopy, the Complete
Rockall Score (CRS) was obtained. In the first and fourth weeks,
they were evaluated during an outpatient clinic scheduled when
hospitalization was not required.
Patient management and clinical endpoints
All patients presenting with NVUGIB received an immediate 8 mg/h
proton pump inhibitor infusion after an 80 mg bolus. The standard
approach for fluid resuscitation was 3–5 ml/kg/hour infusion following
a 10 ml/kg bolus saline infusion, in cases of hypotension bolus dose 20
ml/kg. Based on blood pressure and urine output, the infusion rate was
titrated. The goal mean arterial pressure was > 65 mmHg and urine
output were > 0.5 ml/kg/hour. Regarding the patient’s comorbidities,
aggressive fluid resuscitation was avoided in normotensive individuals
to prevent volume overload. Erythrocyte suspension transfusion
was administered to increase the target hemoglobin level to > 9 g/
dl in patients over 65 years, with chronic lung disease or coronary
artery disease; in younger patients, the target hemoglobin level was
7–9 g/dl. During the first twelve hours, endoscopic intervention was
performed on patients who continued bleeding, had an unstable
hemodynamic state, or had a lower hematocrit even after transfusion.
Within the first 12 to 48 h, patients who were clinically stable and had
not experienced severe bleeding underwent an endoscopy. Each
patient’s time of ES admission and the beginning of the endoscopic
examination were recorded, and the gap between them was called the
“time to endoscopy.” In endoscopic treatment, the endoscopist applied
depending on the characteristics of the lesion either thermal contact or
mechanical techniques combined with adrenaline injection. Adrenaline
injection alone was not evaluated as an endoscopic treatment. Once
an upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination failed to detect
a lesion, a colonoscopy was performed. For individuals whose
colonoscopy identified no bleeding lesions or evidence of ongoing
bleeding, no further procedure was carried out. An attempt was made
to identify the bleeding focus in individuals with bleeding continued or
rebleeding by computed CT angiography. In patients whose bleeding
focus could not be detected, angiography by interventional radiology
or double balloon enteroscopy was performed. Severe bleeding that
did not respond to endoscopic therapy was referred for surgical or
interventional radiology. CT angiography was performed on all patients
who could not be stabilized despite intense resuscitation. Interventional
radiologists performed coil embolization regardless of bleeding rate
when extravasation was identified. Endoscopy was performed at
the ICU bedside when extravasation failed to be detected. Once
endoscopic therapy and coil embolization failed, surgery was the
only option. All patients were followed up outpatient clinic visits in the
second week and the first month after hospitalization. Study data were
obtained following hospitalization by telephone visits or by scanning
the national electronic registration system for patients who missed
outpatient clinic visits.
The following clinical endpoints were investigated: The primary
endpoint was 30-day mortality, with the need for endoscopic
intervention, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay considered as
secondary endpoints. The term was determined very early endoscopy,
within the first 12 h, considering that a 12-hour period would be
more appropriate to ensure hemodynamic stabilization of the patient,
fix the clot, and reduce the risk of aspiration before endoscopy,
especially in elderly patients. Chronic lung disease refers to chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease or interstitial lung disease. Coronary
heart disease was defined as > 70% stenosis in coronary arteries on
conventional angiography or CT angiography, and congestive heart
failure, New York Heart Association functional heart failure class
II-III-IV. Severe bleeding was defined as hemodynamic instability
(mean arterial pressure < 65 mmHg and pulse rate > 100 beats/
min) despite adequate fluid resuscitation and evidence of ongoing
bleeding (hematemesis or a decrease in hematocrit despite blood
transfusion). Rebleeding was determined by a second-look endoscopy
to be defined as a hemoglobin loss higher than 2.0 g/dL along with
bleeding symptoms. A second-look endoscopy was performed as
soon as hemodynamic stability was achieved following rebleeding. Any
death that occurred within 30 days after the bleeding incidence was
considered mortality.
Statistical analysis
Data was evaluated by IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 25.0
(IBM Corp., Armonk, New York, USA). We applied the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov test to figure out the normality of the distribution of continuous
variables. Continuous variables with usual distributions were given as
mean ± standard deviation, while non-normally distributed variables
were presented as median (interquartile range). Grouping variables
were presented as occurrences and percentages. Between the two
groups with constant data, the Student’s t-test was used for variables
with a typical distribution and the Mann-Whitney U test for abnormally
distributed variables. The Chi-Square test or Fisher’s Exact test
was employed to compare variable categories across two-group
comparisons, as applicable. For comparisons of clinical outcomes
in more than two groups, the Kruskal-Wallis test or the Chi-Square
test was applied. The significance level of the P value was set as <
0,05. Considering the impact that age ≥ 75 years has on mortality
risk, with a mortality rate of 8.9% [14], taking the effect size as 0.189 of
absolute difference, α = 0.05, and power (1-β) = 0.80, the total study
population was determined as 464 patients at a 95% confidence level
with a G power program. Multiple variate logistic regression analysis
that included clinically relevant variables were performed to identify
independent predictors of secondary outcomes (endoscopic, surgical,
or radiological interventions and rebleeding). Results were expressed
as Odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI), and p-value. For
determining independent predictors for 30-day mortality, a multiple
variate Cox regression analysis was done that included statistically
significantly differed variables in subgroups (Aged < 65 years and Aged
≥ 65 years) comparisons. Results were given as Hazard ratio (HR),
95% CI, and p-value.
Results
While 208 (44.4%) of the study population was under 65 years of
age, 260 (55.6%) was over 65 years of age. Male patients in the <
65years population had a rate of 77.4% (161), compared to 59.2%
(154) in the ≥ 65 years population, which was statistically significant (p
< 0.001). The most common symptom in the entire study group and
subgroups was melena (68.2%), followed by hematemesis (50.9%).
Hypertension (HT) (44.4%) was the most common comorbidity across
all research groups and subgroups, followed by coronary heart
disease (CHD) (34.4%). Those over 65 had significantly higher rates
of chronic heart failure (CHF), arrhythmia, CHD, chronic kidney failure
(CKD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), HT, and diabetes mellitus
(DM) (p < 0.001, for all parameters). The ≥ 65 years population had a
considerably higher rate of malignancy than the < 65 years population
[(39 (15) vs. 17 (8,2), p = 0.024)]. Proton pumps inhibitor (PPI) (31.9%
vs. 13.9%), antiplatelet (38.8% vs. 18.8%), and anticoagulant (22.3%
vs. 6.7%) use was considerably higher in the ≥ 65 age group (p <
0.001, for all parameters). The ≥ 65 age group used fewer nonsteroidal
anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (11.2%, n = 29 vs. 21.2%, n = 44,
p = 0.003). Table 1 shows the characteristic features, clinical and
laboratory data of the entire study group and subgroups based on age.
While hemoglobin [9,34 ± 2,71 vs. 10,67 ± 3] and serum albumin
[35 (31–38) vs. 38,5 (34–43)] concentrations upon admission were
statistically substantially lower, urea [92 (56–141) vs. 55 (36–81)] and
INR [1,19 (1,08 − 1,36) vs. 1,09 (1,02 − 1,17)] values were higher in aged
patients (p < 0.001 for all parameters). GBS, AIMS65 score, CCRS,
and CRS were much higher in the older than 65 population (p < 0.001,
for all parameters). The ≥ 65 population had a considerably higher
rate of high-risk individuals (p < 0.001, for all criteria), as assessed by
scores (Table 1).
The ≥ 65 age group experienced considerably longer hospital
stays (5 (0–11) vs. 3 (0–6), p < 0.001). The 30-day mortality rate was
substantially higher in the ≥ 65 age group than in the younger (15.4%,
n = 40 vs. 4.8%, n = 10, p < 0.001). Further clinical outcomes showed
no statistically substantial variations among the groups (p > 0.05 for all
parameters) (Table 2).
The most common endoscopic finding was duodenal ulcer (34%),
followed by gastric ulcer (16.5%). Duodenal ulcer was seen in 30% (78)
patients in the ≥ 65 age group, while it was seen in 38.9% (81) patients
in the < 65 years population (p = 0.042). Angioectasia was statistically
significantly more common in the ≥ 65 years population [15 (5,8) vs. 2
(1), p = 0.006]. Further endoscopic results revealed no considerable
variations among the groups (p > 0.05 for all parameters) (Table 3).
Among patients > 65 years, 180 (69.2%) underwent endoscopy within
the first 12 h, 53 (20.4%) within 12–24 h and 27 (10.4%) within 24–48
h. When analyzed between subgroups based on endoscopy timing
and age the mortality rate within 30 days was higher in the ≥ 65 years
population (15.6% vs. 5.3%, p = 0.003) in very early endoscopy group,
and (29.6% vs. 0%, p = 0.016) (Table 4).
The clinical results of subgroups based on endoscopy time in the
≥ 65 population and comparisons between groups. When groups
were compared, it was found that the very early endoscopy group
had a considerably lower likelihood of need for surgical/radiological
intervention than the late endoscopy group [3 (1,7) vs. (3,7), p = 0.016].
In patients > 65 years old, 30-day mortality rates by the endoscopy
timing were statistically significantly different in the very early group
(15.6%), early endoscopy group (7.5%), and late endoscopy group
(29.6%) (p = 0.035). The remaining intergroups showed no statistically
significant differences (p > 0.05, for all parameters) (Table 5).
12–24 h endoscopy timing was an independent predictor for
endoscopic, surgical, or radiological intervention (OR: 0.551, 95%Cl:
0.312–0.976, p: 0.041). Previous history of UGIB bleeding (OR: 0.227,
95%Cl: 0.105–0.489, p: <0.001), serum albumin value (OR: 0.921,
95%Cl: 0.860–0.986, p: 0.019), 24–48 h (late) endoscopy time (OR:
3.133, 95%Cl: 1.127–8.713, p: 0.029) were independent predictors
for rebleeding during hospital stay. Univariate and multivariate Cox
regression analysis showed that chronic renal failure (HR: 2.474, 95%
Cl:1.040–5.887, p:0.041), hemoglobin level (HR: 1.327, 95% Cl:1.100-
1.603, p:0.003), serum albumin level (HR: 0.870, 95% Cl:0.813–0.931,
p:<0.001), and Complete Rockall score (HR: 1.520, 95% Cl:1.121–
2.060, p:0.007) were found to be independent predictors for 30-day
mortality. It was determined that patients over 65 had no significant
impact on the 30-day mortality predictions (HR: 1.041, 95% CI: 0.355–
3.055, p: 0.942) (Table 6). Clinical Rockall was not an independent
risk factor for 30-day mortality, while the Complete Rockall score (HR:
1.520, 95% Cl:1.121–2.060, p:0.007) was.
Discussion
Acute UGIB poses a significant threat to older adults, with patients
aged over 60 accounting for 35–45% of acute UGIB cases. UGIB
remains a major clinical concern in older persons, who have higher
rates of in-hospital adverse events and mortality compared to those
who are younger. Designing an assessment approach for older
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
8 9
FEATURE
FEATURE
Cagir et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:444
Page 5 of 9
Cagir et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:444
Page 6 of 9
Table 1 Patient characteristics, clinical and laboratory data of the study group and subgroups by age x
Study group
(n = 468)
Aged < 65 years
(n = 208)
Aged ≥ 65 years
(n = 260)
Age, years 67 (51–78,75) 49 (38–58) 77 (70,25–84) < 0,001
Gender, male, n (%) 315 (67,3) 161 (77,4) 154 (59,2) < 0,001
Presenting symptoms, n (%)
Hematemesis
Melena
Hematochezia
Syncope
Comorbidities, n (%)
CHF
Arrhythmia
CHD
CRF
CVD
CLD
HT
DM
Malignancy
238 (50,9)
319 (68,2)
39 (8,3)
41 (8,8)
53 (11,3)
84 (17,9)
161 (34,4)
51 (10,9)
38 (8,1)
10 (2,1)
208 (44,4)
98 (20,9)
56 (12)
112 (53,8)
139 (66,8)
17 (8,2)
17 (8,2)
6 (2,9)
11 (5,3)
28 (13,5)
10 (4,8)
10 (4,8)
6 (2,9)
48 (23,1)
27 (13)
17 (8,2)
126 (48,5)
180 (69,2)
22 (8,5)
24 (9,2)
47 (18,1)
73 (28,1)
133 (51,2)
41 (15,8)
28 (10,8)
4 (1,5)
160 (61,5)
71 (27,3)
39 (15)
P
0,247
0,579
0,911
0,688
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
0,351
< 0,001
< 0,001
0,024
PPI usage, n (%) 112 (23,9) 29 (13,9) 83 (31,9) < 0,001
Previous history of UGIB, n (%) 99 (21,2) 42 (20,2) 57 (21,9) 0,649
Previous history of GIS surgery, n (%) 16 (3,4) 11 (5,3) 5 (1,9) 0,046
Medication, n (%)
NSAIDs
Antiaggregants
Anticoagulants
ASA
DAPT
Warfarin
DOACs
73 (15,6)
138 (29,5)
125 (26,7)
13 (2,8)
72 (15,4)
41 (8,8)
31 (6,6)
44 (21,2)
37 (17,8)
32 (15,4)
5 (2,4)
14 (6,7)
14 (6,7)
-
29 (11,2)
101 (38,8)
93 (35,8)
8 (3,1)
58 (22,3)
27 (10,4)
31 (11,9)
0,003
< 0,001
< 0,001
0,660
< 0,001
0,165
< 0,001
Pulse, > 100 beats/min, n (%) 198 (43,2) 82 (39,4) 116 (44,6) 0,259
Systolic blood pressure, < 90 mmHg, n (%) 34 (7,3) 10 (4,8) 24 (9,2) 0,067
Hgb level on admission (g/dL) 9,93 ± 2,92 10,67 ± 3 9,34 ± 2,71 < 0,001
Urea level on admission (mg/dL) 71 (47–113) 55 (36–81) 92 (56–141) < 0,001
INR on admission 1,13 (1,05 − 1,27) 1,09 (1,02 − 1,17) 1,19 (1,08 − 1,36) < 0,001
Serum albumin level on admission (g/L) 36 (32–40) 38,5 (34–43) 35 (31–38) < 0,001
Serum platelet level on admission (10 9 /L) 253,5 (201,25–332,75) 246 (204,25–315,5) 263,5 (196–349,5) 0,226
Endoscopy time, n (%)
< 12 h
12–24 h
24–48 h
GBS
≤ 1 * , n (%)
≥ 7 ** , n (%)
AIMS65 score
= 0 * , n (%)
≥ 2 ** , n (%)
CCRS
= 0 * , n (%)
≥ 3 ** , n (%)
CRS
≤ 2 * , n (%)
≥ 8 ** , n (%)
330 (70,5)
94 (20,1)
44 (9,4)
150 (72,1)
41 (19,7)
17 (8,2)
180 (69,2)
53 (20,4)
27 (10,4)
0,683
0,496
0,857
0,415
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
< 0,001
Table 2 Results and comparisons of clinical outcomesx
Study group
(n = 468)
Aged < 65 years
(n = 208)
Aged ≥ 65 years
(n = 260)
Length of hospital stay, days 4 (0–8) 3 (0–6) 5 (0–11) < 0,001
Need for endoscopic hemostasis, n (%) 137 (29,3) 58 (27,9) 79 (30,4) 0,555
Need for surgical/radiological intervention, n (%)
Radiological intervention
Surgical intervention
2 (0,4)
6 (1,3)
Rebleeding, during hospital stay, n (%) 36 (7,7) 11 (5,3) 25 (9,6) 0,081
30-day mortality, n (%) 50 (10,7) 10 (4,8) 40 (15,4) < 0,001
x Results are expressed as: median (interquartile range), or frequency (%)
Significant P values are in bold
Table 3 Results and comparisons of endoscopic findingsx
Study group
(n = 468)
1 (0,5)
-
Aged < 65 years
(n = 208)
1 (0,4)
6 (2,3)
Aged ≥ 65 years
(n = 260)
Lesion not visualized, n (%) 20 (4,3) 9 (4,3) 11(4,2) 0,959
Gastric ulcer, n (%) 77 (16,5) 27 (13) 50 (19,2) 0,070
Duodenal ulcer, n (%) 159 (34) 81 (38,9) 78 (30) 0,042
Upper GIS malignancy, n (%) 42 (9) 19 (9,1) 23 (8,8) 0,914
Mallory-Weiss syndrome, n (%) 16 (3,4) 7 (3,4) 9 (3,5) 0,955
Erosive gastritis, n (%) 53 (11,3) 21 (10,1) 32 (12,3) 0,453
Erosive duodenitis, n (%) 20 (4,3) 7 (3,4) 13 (5) 0,385
Erosive esophagitis, n (%) 17 (3,6) 8 (3,8) 9 (3,5) 0,825
Esophageal ulcer, n (%) 28 (6) 14 (6,7) 14 (5,4) 0,542
Angioectasia, n (%) 17 (3,6) 2 (1) 15 (5,8) 0,006
Cameroon lesion, n (%) 5 (1,1) 4 (1,9) 1 (0,4) 0,176
Dieulafoy lesion, n (%) 5 (1,1) 3 (1,4) 2 (0,8) 0,660
Anastomotic ulcer, n (%) 9 (1,9) 6 (2,9) 3 (1,2) 0,195
x Results are expressed as: frequency (%)
Significant P values are in bold
GIS: Gastrointestinal system
Table 4 Comparisons of clinical outcomes based on endoscopy timex
Very early (< 12 h) Early (12–24 h) Late (> 24 h)
< 65 years
(n = 150)
≥ 65 years
(n = 180)
P
< 65 years
(n = 41)
≥ 65 years
(n = 53)
P
< 65 years
(n = 17)
≥ 65 years
(n = 27)
Length of hospital stay, days 6 (3–9) 10 (4–20,7) 0,001 3 (0–7) 6 (3–12) 0,031 7 (3,5–9) 6 (3–13) 0,680
30-day mortality, n (%) 8 (5,3) 28 (15,6) 0,003 2 (4,9) 4 (7,5) 0,693 - 8 (29,6) 0,016
P
0,082
1
0,036
P
P
9 (6–12)
26 (5,6)
336 (71,8)
1 (0–2)
181 (38,7)
136 (29,1)
3 (1–4)
83 (17,7)
292 (62,4)
5 (3–6)
83 (17,7)
50 (10,7)
7 (5–10)
21 (10,1)
124 (59,6)
0 (0–0)
175 (84,1)
12 (5,8)
1 (0–3)
83 (39,9)
60 (28,8)
3 (1–5)
75 (36,1)
4 (1,9)
11 (8–13)
5 (1,9)
212 (81,5)
1 (1–2)
6 (2,3)
124 (47,7)
4 (3–5)
-
232 (89,2)
6 (4–7)
8 (3,1)
46 (17,7)
x Results are expressed as: median (interquartile range) or frequency (%)
Significant P values are in bold
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
x
Results are expressed as: mean ± standard deviation, median (interquartile range), or frequency (%)
* : Patients classified as low risk
** : Patients classified as high risk
Significant P values are in bold
CHF: Congestive heart failure, CHD: Coronary heart disease, CRF: Chronic renal failure, CVD: Cerebrovascular disease, CLD: Chronic liver disease, HT: Hypertension,
DM: Diabetes mellitus, PPI: Proton pump inhibitors, UGIB: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding, GIS: Gastrointestinal system, NSAIDs: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory
drugs, ASA: Acetylsalicylic acid, DAPT: Dual antiplatelet therapy, DOACs: Direct oral anticoagulants, Hgb: Hemoglobin, INR: International normalized ratio, GBS:
Glasgow-Blatchford score, CCRS: Clinical Rockall score, CRS: Complete Rockall score
Table 5 Comparisons of clinical outcomes based on endoscopy time in patients aged ≥ 65 yearsx
Very early
(< 12 h)
(n = 180)
Early
(12–24 h)
(n = 53)
Late
(> 24 h)
(n = 27)
Length of hospital stay, days 10 (4–20,7) 6 (3–12) 6 (3–13) 0,197
Need for endoscopic hemostasis, n (%) 61 (33,9) 13 (24,5) 5 (18,5) 0,157
Need for surgical /radiological intervention, n (%) 3 (1,7) * 3 (5,7) 1 (3,7) * 0,016
Rebleeding, during hospital stay, n (%) 15 (8,3) 4 (7,5) 6 (22,2) 0,063
30-day mortality, n (%) 28 (15,6) 4 (7,5) * 8 (29,6) * 0,035
x
Results are expressed as: median (interquartile range) or frequency (%)
* Groups that significantly differed in subgroup analysis
Significant P values are in bold
P
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Cagir et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:444
Page 7 of 9
FEATURE
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Table 6 Multiple variate Cox regression analysis of predictors for current patients analysis, presenting the with number UGIB. GBS of patients is recommended with high by scores the European
30-day mortality
in the Society elderly of Gastrointestinal was statistically Endoscopy higher [5], than especially in the for younger. identifying lowrisk
95% CI
patients. incidence When of UGIB the score was is ≤ reported 1, the need to for be endoscopy significantly is quite
The
HR Lower Upper P
higher low and at outpatient 425.2 per follow-up 100,000 can in be the recommended. population In over the current 75
Age, ≥ 65 years 1.041 0.355 3.055 0.942
compared study, only with 26 (5.6%) 31.7 patients per 100,000 had a GBS ≤ 65 score years of of 0 or age 1, statistically [18].
Gender, male 1.686 0.858 3.314 0.130
UGIB, less in whose the elderly. incidence GBS ≥ and 7 is used mortality as a basis increases for predicting as people high-risk
CHF, yes 0.915 0.361 2.318 0.852
get patients. older, is In the an current issue of analysis, concern the and number difficulty of patients for with physicians.
scores Previous in the elderly studies was statistically have reported higher than NVUGIB in the younger. mor-
high
Arrhythmia, yes 0.886 0.340 2.310 0.805
CHD, yes 1.142 0.555 2.347 0.719
tality as 5% in all age groups while the mortality rate in
CRF, yes 2.474 1.040 5.887 0.041
patients The incidence aged ≥ of 75 UGIB years was increased reported to to be 15% significantly [7, 14, higher 19]. In at 425.2
CVD, yes 0.834 0.285 2.436 0.740
the per present 100,000 study, in the population the 30-day over mortality 75 compared rate with was 31.7 4.8% per in 100,000
HT, yes 0.953 0.455 1.995 0.898
patients ≤ 65 years under of age 65 [18]. to 15.4%, UGIB, whose and as incidence high as and 15.4% mortality in older increases
Malignancy, yes 2.186 0.978 4.886 0.057
than as people 65 years. get older, In the is current an issue of study, concern multivariate and difficulty analysis for physicians.
PPI usage, yes 1.397 0.692 2.821 0.350
showed Previous that studies age over have reported 65 was not NVUGIB an independent mortality as 5% predictor
groups of 30-day while mortality the (HR: rate in 1.041, patients 95% aged CI: ≥ 0.355–3.055,
75 years increased
in all age
Previous history of UGIB, yes 1.537 0.291 8.118 0.613
NSAIDs usage, yes 0.891 0.335 2.370 0.818
ASA usage, yes 1.632 0.724 3.681 0.238 p: to 0.942). 15% [7, The 14, 19]. fact In that the present patients study, over the 65 30-day have mortality a mortality
4.8% rate in that patients is significantly under 65 to 15.4%, higher and than as high younger as 15.4% patients in older than
rate was
DOACs usage, yes 0.554 0.162 1.889 0.345
Hgb level 1.327 1.100 1.603 0.003 may 65 seem years. paradoxical, In the current study, however, multivariate independent analysis risk showed factors that age
Urea level 0.996 0.989 1.002 0.176 including over 65 was comorbidities not an independent and decreased predictor of 30-day serum mortality albumin (HR:
INR 0.903 0.717 1.138 0.387 and 1.041, hemoglobin 95% CI: 0.355–3.055, level in patients p: 0.942). over The 65 fact years that patients may have over 65
Serum Albumin level 0.870 0.813 0.931 < 0.001 contributed have a mortality to a rate high that mortality is significantly rate. higher Comprehensive than younger surveillance,
patients
GBS 1.165 0.998 1.359 0.053
may seem risk paradoxical, assessment, however, and successful independent endoscopic risk factors including and
AIMS65 score 1.396 0.897 2.170 0.139 medical comorbidities treatment and decreased are important serum albumin measures and for hemoglobin decreasing
level
CCRS 0.648 0.426 0.985 0.042
in bad patients clinical over outcomes 65 years may in have older contributed individuals to a who high mortality suffer
CRS 1.520 1.121 2.060 0.007 from rate. UGIB Comprehensive [10, 20]. surveillance, risk assessment, and successful
Significant P values are in bold
Considering endoscopic and the medical increased treatment acute are UGIB important mortality measures rates for
HR: Hazard ratio, CI: Confidence interval, CHF: Congestive heart failure, CHD: in decreasing the elderly bad patient clinical outcomes group, in the older optimal individuals endoscopy who suffer from
Coronary heart disease, CRF: Chronic renal failure, CVD: Cerebrovascular
time UGIB is [10, even 20]. more important in this patient group. Previous
studies suggest the benefits of early endoscopy
disease, HT: Hypertension, DM: Diabetes mellitus, PPI: Proton pump inhibitors,
UGIS: Upper Gastrointestinal system, NSAIDs: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory
drugs, ASA: Acetylsalicylic acid, DOACs: Direct oral anticoagulants, Hgb:
[21, Considering 22]. Cooper the increased et al. [23] acute carried UGIB mortality out early rates endoscopy
Hemoglobin, INR: International normalized ratio, GBS: Glasgow-Blatchford
in the elderly
score, CCRS: Clinical Rockall score, CRS: Complete Rockall score
(endoscopy patient group, within the optimal 24 h) endoscopy in the majority time is even of 909 more patients. important
Endoscopy within 24 h was linked to lower rebleeding,
in this patient group. Previous studies suggest the benefits of early
surgery, and hospitalization rates. Brennan Spiegel more
endoscopy [21, 22]. Cooper et al. [23] carried out early endoscopy
had considerably higher rates of comorbidity, PPI, and clearly claimed that it was time for 24-hour endoscopy to
(endoscopy within 24 h) in the majority of 909 patients. Endoscopy
individuals antithrombotic suffering usage from acute compared UGIB should with be other advantageous, groups. At become universal [24]. In line with the studies above, in
within 24 h was linked to lower rebleeding, surgery, and hospitalization
considering admission, the hemoglobin rise comorbidities and serum associated albumin with age, values concomitant were studies based in Denmark and Korea, when endoscopy
medications, and distinct age-related illnesses that raise the risk
rates. Brennan Spiegel more clearly claimed that it was time for
statistically significantly lower, and urea and INR values performed within 24 h was compared with endoscopy
of morbidity and mortality [15–17]. Though endoscopy should be
24-hour endoscopy to become universal [24]. In line with the studies
were higher in elderly patients. Furthermore, risk scoring
systems involving GBS, AIMS65, CCRS, and CRS group was associated with reduced mortality [25, 26].
performed between 24 and 48 h, the early endoscopy
undertaken within 24 h of presentation to the emergency room at
above, in studies based in Denmark and Korea, when endoscopy
Acute UGIB, there no age-based recommendation. This study is the
performed within 24 h was compared with endoscopy performed
were statistically substantially higher in the ≥ 65 population
(p < 0.001, for each parameter). Based on the thresh-
many studies have revealed questionable results [13, 27–
Contrary to the very early endoscopy advocated above,
first in the literature to compare the timing of endoscopy in older and between 24 and 48 h, the early endoscopy group was associated
younger patients presenting with UGIB.
with reduced mortality [25, 26]. Contrary to the very early endoscopy
olds used in each risk score system, high-risk patients 29]. Very early endoscopy correlates with a higher length
advocated above, many studies have revealed questionable results
were statistically more likely to be elderly. Those over of stay, and need for surgical/radiological interventions,
In this study, the clinical outcomes were compared based on
[13, 27–29]. Very early endoscopy correlates with a higher length of
65 had significantly longer hospitalizations and a higher especially in the high-risk patient group. Elderly individuals
with acute UGIB may be classified as high-risk,
radiological intervention was statistically less in the very early high-risk patient group. Elderly individuals with acute UGIB may be
endoscopy time. In the ≥ 65 population, the need for surgical
stay, and need for surgical/radiological interventions, especially in the
30-day mortality. GBS is widely used to predict the need
for endoscopy patients presenting with UGIB. GBS is and early endoscopy in this population might be linked
endoscopy group than in the late endoscopy group. The 30-
classified as high-risk, and early endoscopy in this population might
recommended by the European Society of Gastrointestinal
Endoscopy [5], especially for identifying low-risk in the ≥ 65 age group, late endoscopy was associated
with unfavorable clinical outcomes. In the current study,
day mortality rate was considerably higher in the late-endoscopy be linked with unfavorable clinical outcomes. In the current study, in
group versus the early-endoscopy group. The ≥ 65 population had the ≥ 65 age group, late endoscopy was associated with increased
patients. When the score is ≤ 1, the need for endoscopy is with increased mortality, and was linked to an increased
considerably higher rates of comorbidity, PPI, and antithrombotic mortality, and was linked to an increased need for surgical/radiological
quite low and outpatient follow-up can be recommended. need for surgical/radiological intervention. Although
usage In the compared current with study, other only groups. 26 (5.6%) At admission, patients hemoglobin had a GBS and
serum score albumin of 0 or values 1, statistically were statistically less in significantly the elderly. lower, GBS and ≥ urea 7 is
and used INR as values a basis were for higher predicting in elderly high-risk patients. Furthermore, patients. In risk the
scoring systems involving GBS, AIMS65, CCRS, and CRS were
statistically substantially higher in the ≥ 65 population (p < 0.001, for
each parameter). Based on the thresholds used in each risk score
system, high-risk patients were statistically more likely to be elderly.
there
intervention.
was no
Although
statistical
there
difference,
was no statistical
when
difference,
the very
when
early
the
endoscopy very early endoscopy and early and endoscopy early endoscopy groups groups were were compared, compared,
the the mortality rates were were higher higher in the in very the early very group. early Endoscopy group.
Endoscopy during the during first 12 h the provided first no 12 advantage h provided over no endoscopy advantage performed
between 12 and 24 h. In the very early endoscopy group, 6 patients
experienced hypotension, 4 patients had hypoxia due to aspiration,
and one patient had cardiac arrest during the procedure, while just 1
Those over 65 had significantly longer hospitalizations and a higher 30-
day mortality. GBS is widely used to predict the need for endoscopy in
patient experienced hypoxia due to aspiration in the early endoscopy
group. The 30-day mortality between very early and early endoscopy
groups was [28 (15.6%) and 4 (7.5%), respectively, p = 0.035]. This
may be due to adverse events developing during the procedure.
No statistically significant difference was found between subgroups
regarding rebleeding in patients > 65 years and younger and also
based on endoscopy timing in patients > 65 years. This may be due
to an endoscopy nurse, two gastroenterologists (one senior), and an
anesthetist being on duty out of working hours.
Although acute UGIB decreases in the elderly population, it is
mostly self-limiting. Immediately starting high-dose PPI infusion (can
stabilize clots and accelerate ulcer healing), saline infusion, and blood
transfusion when necessary (can allow time to optimize patients’
medical conditions) allow endoscopy to be performed under safer
conditions [30, 31]. It was previously claimed to compare endoscopy
< 12 h to endoscopy < 24 h. The rationale is to allow sufficient
time for resuscitation and stabilization of medical conditions in of
further hemorrhage and death. The optimal time may be endoscopy
between 6 and 12 h [32]. For the above reasons, when determining
the timing of endoscopy, we determined it as within 12 h after
admission, 12–24 h, and afterward 24 h rather than the first 6 h. The
first 12 h may be a safe time limit for hemodynamic stabilization,
acid suppression, and reduction of endoscopic procedure-related
complications (such as aspiration pneumonia and acute coronary
syndrome). It may benefit the management of acute UGIB, especially
in the elderly population with high comorbidities and the severity
of bleeding.
The study’s limitations comprise a single-center retrospective
methodology and a possible tendency to a higher acceptance of
patients at high risk, which could have altered the outcomes. In
addition, Helicobacter Pylori (HP) status was not analyzed in all
patients. Though the prevalence of drug-related hemorrhage rises
with getting older, HP-associated peptic ulcer is still essential [33,
34]. Although we started PPI and fluid infusion as standard in all
patients, we could not define the optimal fluid and blood transfusion
protocol. The fact that the patients had different hemodynamics
made it difficult to determine the standard optimal transfusion
strategy patients with bleeding secondary to malignant lesions
were also enrolled in this study which can affect the evaluation
of the role of urgent endoscopy on the clinical outcomes since
its high mortality rates. However, there was no difference in
endoscopic findings between the groups. Patients presenting with
severe bleeding, patients had endoscopies within the first 12 h.
Endoscopy was scheduled as soon as possible after 12 h for patients
whose hemodynamically were stable. As a result, there could be
discrepancies in the results if the group that had an endoscopy within
the first 12 h had worse outcomes. The study’s strengths were a
comparative design, skilled endoscopists performing endoscopy on
all patients, and data collection by gastroenterologists.
Conclusion
An assessment approach based on age in acute UGIB may be
advantageous given the increased risk of poor outcomes. Unlike very
early or late endoscopic timing, early endoscopy (12–24 h) may benefit
the management of acute UGIB, especially in the elderly with high
comorbidities and bleeding severity.
Abbreviations
UGIB Upper gastrointestinal bleeding
ESGE European society of gastrointestinal endoscopy
NSAIDs Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs
NVUGIB Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding
CCRS Clinical rockall score
GBS Glasgow blatchford score
CRS Complete rockall score
ES Erythrocyte suspension
OR Odds ratio
CI Confidence interval
HT Hypertension
CHD Coronary heart disease
CHF Chronic heart failure
CKD Chronic kidney failure
CVD Cerebrovascular disease
DM Diabetes mellitus
PPI Proton pumps inhibitor
DOAC Direct oral anticoagulant
HP Helicobacter pylori
Acknowledgements
None.
Author contributions
YC: Investigation, data collection, writing-original draft preparation,
reviewing and editing, visualization. MBD: Writing-original draft
preparation, statistics, reviewing and editing. IY: Conceptualization,
Methodology, Investigation, Supervision, writing- reviewing and editing.
Funding
The authors declared that this study has received no financial support.
Data availability
Data is available from corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
The study was conducted in accordance with the ethical guidelines
of the institutional research committee, the 1964 Declaration of
Helsinki, and its subsequent amendments, or comparable ethical
standards. The Ankara Bilkent City Hospital Scientific Research and
Ethics Committee accepted the project with approval No: E1/22/2951.
Informed consent statement was waived by the committee due to the
retrospective design of the study.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Author details
1
Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara Bilkent City Hospital, Ankara
06800, Turkey
2
Department of Gastroenterology, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe
University, Ankara 06230, Turkey
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
12 13
FEATURE
FEATURE
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
3
Department of Gastroenterology, Faculty of Medicine, Ankara Yildirim
Beyazit University, Ankara 06800, Turkey
Received: 31 May 2024 / Accepted: 27 November 2024
Published online: 02 December 2024
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neuroendocrine tumors of the digestive system. Open Med. 11(1),
369–373. https://doi.org/10.1515/med-2016-0067 (2016).
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Villous tumours of the duodenum. An analysis of the literature with
emphasis on malignant transformation. Neth. J. Med. 42, 5 (1993).
18. Levine, J. A., Burgart, L. J., Batts, K. P. & Wang, K. K. Brunner’s
gland hamartomas: Clinical presentation and pathological features
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(Epub 2019 Jul 2).
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report and literature review. Case Rep. Gastrointest. Med. 2013,
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HEALTH-CARE RESOURCE USE
AND COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN
NORTHWEST LONDON: A RETROSPECTIVE
LINKED DATABASE STUDY
Zia UI-Haq 1 , Luiz Causin 2 , Tahereh Kamalati 1 , Durgesh Kahol 2 , Trishan Vaikunthanathan 2 , Charlotte Wong 3,4
and Naila Arebi 3,4*
UI-Haq et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:480 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-024-03559-3
RESEARCH
Abstract
Background With 20–40% of patients who have inflammatory bowel
disease (IBD) not responding to therapy, resource use and costs can
be high. We performed a descriptive analysis of health-care data for
IBD management in the National Health Service to explore potential
areas for improvement.
Methods In this exploratory study, we analysed real-world data
from the Discover dataset for adults with a diagnosis of incident IBD
recorded in northwest London, UK, between 31 March, 2016, and
31 March, 2020. We compared mean visit numbers and primary and
secondary care costs per patient to examine resource use and costs
for active disease versus remission.
Results We included 7,733 patients (5,872 with ulcerative colitis [UC],
1,427 with Crohn’s disease [CD], and 434 with codes for both [termed
IBD-undefined in this study]). Remission was recorded in 19,218 (82%)
of 23,488 observations for UC, 4,686 (82%) of 5,708 for CD, and 1,122
(65%) for IBD-undefined observations. Health-care resource use was
significantly higher with active disease in all settings except primary
care for UC. Total health-care costs were greater with active disease
than remission for all diagnoses (all p < 0.0001). The main driver of
costs was inpatient hospital care among those with active disease;
elective inpatient costs were high among patients with UC and IBDundefined
in remission.
Conclusions Higher health-care resource use and costs were
observed with active disease, which underscores the importance of
early induction and maintenance of remission in UC and CD. Updated
strategies that incorporate treat to target may offer cost benefits by
the offsetting of biologic drug costs with a reduction in costly inpatient
hospital stays.
Trial registration This trial was not registered as it used
pseudonymised retrospective data.
Keywords Inflammatory bowel disease, Cost, Outcomes, Biologics,
Active disease, Remission
Background
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is an umbrella term for chronic
idiopathic inflammatory diseases of the gastrointestinal system,
encompassing ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease (CD) [1]. Of
the various presentations, a relapsing-remitting inflammatory course
is the most common [2, 3]. Progressive disease with complications is
associated with hospitalisations, surgery, and impacts on quality of life
and work productivity, which can have further psychological, social,
and physical consequences [1, 4–6].
IBD places substantial health and economic burdens on communities
worldwide. In the USA and Europe, more than 3 million people are
estimated to have IBD, whilst in the UK, the prevalence is around
0.5‒0.8%.7–11 Owing to factors such as early onset, no cure, and low
mortality, IBD is going through a period of compounding prevalence.
Thus, in high-income countries, prevalence is estimated to reach 1%
by 2030 [12]. Furthermore, with the disease exhibiting a bimodal age
distribution and in the context of an ageing general population, older
people now represent the largest-growing population of patients
living with IBD. This will pose unique challenges and considerations
to health-care professionals in terms of diagnosis and treatment
decisions [13–15].
*Correspondence:
Naila Arebi
naila.arebi@imperial.ac.uk
1
Imperial College Health Partners, London, UK
2
Janssen-Cilag Ltd, High Wycombe, UK
3
Department of Inflammatory Bowel Disease, St Mark’s National Bowel Hospital, Central Middlesex Hospital, Acton Lane, London NW10 7NS, UK
4
Department of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction, Imperial College London, London, UK
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
FEATURE
FEATURE
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Health-care use in IBD, particularly during active stages, incurs direct
and indirect costs to health-care systems, patients, their families, and
society as a whole [16, 17]. Direct health-care costs are attributed
to diagnostic delays, disease activity, drug and surgical treatments,
and monitoring for treatment response and complications, such
as infections. Furthermore, although a broad range of therapies is
available, ranging from 5-aminosalicylates (for UC), corticosteroids,
immunomodulators, small molecules, and biologic agents [18], up
to 20–40% of patients experience non-response, loss of response,
and intolerance to therapy [19, 20]. The resulting treatment dose
adjustments, drug switches, and treatment augmentation potentially
raise costs further [21–24].
The advent of monoclonal antibody biologics against tumour necrosis
factor (anti-TNF), such as infliximab and adalimumab, have improved
outcomes in IBD and helped to move treatment goals beyond symptom
resolution alone. Nevertheless, widespread uptake has been subject to
some reservations about increased risks of infections and bowel surgery,
particularly in the elderly [15], and immunogenicity [25]. Non-anti-TNF
biologics, such as vedolizumab, ustekinumab, risankizumab, and
mirikizumab, have extended treat-to-target options [26, 27] and reduced
risks of infection [28] and anti-drug antibodies [29, 30]. However,
suboptimal use of such drugs might contribute to a ‘glass ceiling’ effect
[31]. Considering different drug mechanisms of action and innovations in
treatment strategies could consolidate elusive efforts to break through
recognised therapeutic limitations [18, 23, 32, 33].
Decisions on funding of biologic drugs in the UK have considered
costs of drugs and cost-effectiveness measured in terms of qualityadjusted
life years [34]. This approach, however, may not the capture
the impact of active disease on use of health-care resources or rapid
disease control and maintenance of remission. Furthermore, anti-TNF
biosimilar alternatives have not yet been available long enough to
have been included in many health economic assessments, although
in Europe UI-Haq biosimilars et al. BMC Gastroenterology prescribed for the management (2024) 24:480 of IBD allow
savings of 15–75% compared with the original compounds [35]. We
used real-world data to examine health-care resource use and to
investigate drivers of costs during active disease versus remission. We
tested the hypothesis that active disease would be associated with use
of more health-care resources and greater costs than remission. We
also examined the impacts of age, timing of starting biologics, and the
use of non-anti-TNF biologics (ustekinumab and vedolizumab) versus
anti-TNFs as first biologic on health-care resources usage and costs.
Methods
Study design and population
This was a population-based, retrospective, linked database study
of adults (age > 18 years) with IBD in primary and secondary care
in northwest London. A pre-study protocol was approved by all
investigators for the ethics application. Anonymised data were
obtained from the start of 2015 to allow the selection and testing of
covariates and ensure patients with a pre-existing IBD diagnosis were
excluded. This approach removed uncertainty about previous biologic
treatment exposure that would not have been captured for the cohort
because the dataset was only linked to the high-cost drug database in
2016. Eligible patients were those who received a diagnosis of incident
IBD (a Read code, version 2, in primary care or an ICD 10 code in
secondary for UC or CD) between 31 March, 2016, when linkage to
the NHS High Cost Drugs Database began, and 31 March, 2020 (Fig.
1). All patients were biologic naïve at inclusion. A small population of
patients who had codes for both CD and UC were also included, for
whom we adopted the term IBD-undefined to avoid confusion with
the term IBD unclassified. The former term aims to capture changes
in coding as well as uncertainty of the diagnosis. Data on relevant
therapeutic procedures were identified with OPCS Classification of
Interventions and Procedure codes (version 4; Appendix Table A1). We
excluded patients who had had bowel resections before the recorded
use of biologics in 2016, as their treatment might not be representative
of the current standard of care. Page 3 of 13
Fig. 1 Population identification and selection procedure. Abbreviations: BMI, body-mass index; GP, general (family) practitioner; IBD, inflammatory bowel
disease
Dataset
As part of the integrated care system in northwest London, health and
social care data linked by NHS number are collected for around 2.5
million patients registered with an NHS general practice (GP). The data
come from more than 400 general practices, mental health service
providers, community trusts, and acute providers [36]. Information
recorded includes demographics, medical histories, consultation
notes, test results, prescriptions, and procedures so that primary,
secondary, and other care providers may access a summary of
relevant information to aid decision-making. Additional patient-level
information on direct commissioners’ costs is also stored.
For this study, we requested access to data via the Discover-NOW
Health Data Research Hub for Real World Evidence (Discover) linked
dataset, which is hosted by Imperial College Health Partners. All data
were deidentified to meet the minimization standards of the Information
Standards Boards of NHS Digital, and were stored on a secure server.
A governance suppression rule, in which numbers lower than five are
annotated as < 5, was applied to further protect anonymity.
Ethics approval
Ethics approval for the use of the Discover Platform for research was
secured from the NHS Health Research Authority in October 2018. The
REC reference is 18/WM/0323 and the IRAS project ID is 253,449. The
sponsor of the study did not have access to patient-level data.
Definitions
Disease activity is not recorded in the dataset. Instead, we inferred
active disease and remission throughout the study period by review
of events: active disease was defined as more than two events within
a 12-month period and remission as two or fewer events within a
12-month period. An event was considered to have occurred when one
or more of the following activities were recorded: a new prescription
of any non-biologic treatment; any dose escalation within the class of
drug; addition of another class of drug (any class); a new prescription
of any biologic treatment; or a change in biologic treatment (not
including change to a biosimilar). A cut off of two events was used to
comply with current British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines
wherein treatment escalation for disease activity is recommended
after two or more steroid courses in 1 year [18]. The first event in each
period of active disease was referred to as an index event. Disease
status was checked and recorded as changed or unchanged every
12 months.
Drugs were categorised as conventional, anti-TNF biologics, or nonanti-TNF
biologics (Appendix Table A2). Initiation of biologics (anti-TNFs
and non-anti-TNFs) was separated into early and late (delayed). Early
initiation was defined as biologic therapy administered within 3 months
of an index event whereas late initiation occurred more than 3 months
after an index event or following a second event within a 12-month
assessment period.
Terminology for IBD-related resource use is reported as captured
in the dataset. Elective inpatient visits refer to planned hospital
admissions; non-elective inpatient visits refer to unplanned hospital
care after urgent and emergency attendances; outpatient visits refer
to clinic attendances and investigations; and primary care visits are
attendances at GPs.
Cost analysis
Discover captures cost data from health-care providers on primary
and secondary care. Primary care costs are based on commissioning
pricing for different provider services, classified as general care
(national-level services), personal care (local-level services), and
alternative provider medical services (use of third-party providers),
and additional costs like local incentive schemes and out-of-hours
services. GP prescribing costs are unavailable at the individual patient
level and, therefore, we estimated these from historic data on contract
costs, budgets, and sizes and characteristics of practice patient lists.
Secondary care costs are based on specific activities (e.g., accident
and emergency visits, specific procedures, surgery, length of stay
in hospital, etc.) and are available per patient. Community costs are
based primarily on block contracts that are split across service lines/
activity groupings. Patient-level data are based on the share of a
service/activity that an individual uses.
We calculated costs per patient over the study period for direct healthcare
resource use, overall and separately, for inpatient secondary
care (elective hospital admissions, non-elective hospital admissions,
and length of stay), outpatient secondary care, primary care, and
community care. All costs were calculated in GBP.
Statistical analysis
The primary outcome was health-care resource use and per-patient
costs of care for active disease and remission. Secondary objectives
were to compare costs according to disease activity (active disease
vs. remission), timing of biologic initiation (early vs. late), and type
of biologic received first (non-anti-TNF biologics vs. anti-TNF) in all
patients and in two age groups (18–59 years or ≥ 60 years). As this
was an exploratory study, descriptive statistics were generated and
are presented as frequency distributions for categorical variables and
mean values and standard deviations (SDs) for continuous variables.
No missing data were imputed. Differences between patients with
active disease and those in remission were assessed with the Wilcoxon
test. Significance was indicated by p values less than 0.05 and no
overlap over 95% confidence intervals. All statistical analyses were
performed with R version 2022.02.0.
Results
Population demographics
Between 31 March 2016 and 31 March 2020, the number of patients
identified with an incident diagnosis of IBD within the study period
was 7,733 (Table 1). Of these, 5,872 had UC, 1,427 had CD, and
434 had IBD-undefined. Most patients were younger than 60 years
of age and around 44% had comorbidities (Table 1). Roughly half of
patients had disease durations of at least 2 years by the end of the
study. Active disease was seen mostly in patients in the 18–59-year
age group. Throughout the study, remission was recorded in 19,218
(82%) of 23,488 observations in patients with UC, 4,686 (82%) of 5,708
in patients with CD, and 1,122 (65%) of 1,736 in patients with IBDundefined.
Biologics were prescribed in 392 (5%) patients, two-thirds
of whom started them late in the treatment course (Table 1). Within the
biologically treated group (n = 392), active disease was recorded in 371
(95%) and remission in 21 (5%). The age distribution consisted of 340
(87%) in the younger 18–59-year age group and 55 (14%) in older ≥
60-year age group.
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
18 Dataset
the study period by review of events: active disease was
19
As part of the integrated care system in northwest London,
health and social care data linked by NHS number
defined as more than two events within a 12-month
period and remission as two or fewer events within
FEATURE
UI-Haq et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:480
Page 5 of 13
UI-Haq et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:480
FEATURE
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Table 1 Characteristics of patients
Characteristic UC (n = 5,872) CD (n = 1,427) IBD-undefined (n = 434)
Sex
Male 3,023 (51.5%) 691 (48.0%) 229 (53.0%)
Female 2,849 (48.5%) 736 (52.0%) 205 (47.0%)
Age (years)
18‒59 years 3,613 (62%) 1,117 (78.28%) 352 (81.11%)
≥ 60 years 2,259 (39%) 310 (21.72%) 82 (18.89%)
Mean (SD) 52.83 (19.5) 44.03 (18.4) 42.99 (17.6)
Median (range) 55 (18‒103) 39 (18‒100) 39 (18‒88)
BMI (kg/m 2 )*
Mean (SD) 26.5 (5.8) 25.4 (5.4) 26.0 (5.7)
Median (range) 25.6 (9.2–58.0) 24.8 (10.1–52.5) 25.3 (12.4–45.6)
Ethnicity (%)
Asian 1,524 (26%) 299 (21%) 100 (23%)
Black 344 (6%) 63 (4%) 16 (4%)
Mixed race 131 (2%) 42 (3%) 10 (2%)
White 523 (9%) 144 (10%) 53 (12%)
Other 411 (7%) 105 (7%) 36 (8%)
Not recorded 2,939 (50%) 774 (54%) 219 (50%)
Smoking status
Smoker 1,054 (18%) 314 (22%) 92 (21%)
Ex-smoker 1,015 (17%) 173 (12%) 65 (15%)
Non-smoker 123 (2%) 29 (2%) 8 (2%)
Not recorded 3,680 (63%) 911 (64%) 269 (62%)
Time from diagnosis to study end (months)
< 24 3,000 (51%) 681 (48%) 209 (48%)
≥ 24 2,872 (49%) 746 (52%) 225 (52%)
Electronic Frailty Index score
Mild 808 (14%) 137 (10%) 47 (11%)
Moderate 547 (9%) 70 (5%) 29 (7%)
Severe 405 (7%) 55 (4%) 7 (2%)
Well 3,306 (56%) 911 (64%) 290 (67%)
Not recorded 806 (14%) 254 (18%) 61 (14%)
At least one comorbidity
Number 2,960 (50%) 586 (41%) 177 (40%)
Mean (SD) 2.0 (1.2) 1.8 (1.0) 1.8 (1.2)
Median (range) 2 (1‒7) 1 (1‒8) 1 (1‒7)
Disease activity status at baseline
Active disease 2,040 (35%) 483 (34%) 263 (60%)
18‒59 years 1,409 (69%) 393 (81%) 210 (80%)
≥ 60 years 631 (31%) 90 (19%) 53 (20%)
Remission 3,832 (65%) 944 (66%) 171 (40%)
18‒59 years 2,204 (58%) 724 (77%) 91 (83%)
≥ 60 years 1,628 (42%) 220 (23%) 29 (17%)
Biologic treatment
Yes 177 (3%) 122 (9%) 93 (21%)
Early 70 37 37
Late 107 85 56
No 5,725 (97%) 1,350 (91%) 341 (79%)
Remission achieved
Total number of observations 23,488 5,708 1,736
Observations classified as remission 19,218 (82%) 4,686 (82%) 1,122 (65%)
*Denominators 4,171, 903, and 316 for UC, CD, and IBD-undefined, respectively. Abbreviations: CD, Crohn’s disease; IBD, inflammatory bowel disease; UC, ulcerative
colitis
Health-care resource use
Primary analysis
Mean use of all health-care resources and lengths of stay in hospital
were significantly greater for patients with active disease than those
in remission (all p < 0.0001) except for primary care visits in the UC
group, which did not differ statistically (Fig. 2). Primary care accounted
for most health-care resource use. Other than care for IBD, the
most frequent (mean number of visits > 2.00 per patient) reasons for
primary care visits among patients with active disease were mental
health, measurement of C-reactive protein, and smoking cessation,
irrespective of diagnosis; general rheumatology in patients with UC
and CD; psoriasis in patients with UC; and depression and anxiety in
those with IBD (Appendix Table A3). For patients defined as being in
remission, the commonest reasons for primary care visits were mental
health for all IBD groups, smoking cessation and depression for UC
and CD, and suicide for UC.
Subgroup analyses of health-care resource use for active
and remission states
Age In the 18–59-year age group, mean frequencies of all types of
health-care usage were significantly higher with active disease than
with remission (Fig. 3). Hospital stays (elective and non-elective) were
significantly longer in patients with active state than remission in the
UC and CD groups; the opposite was found in the IBD-undefined
group (Fig. 3).
In the 18–59 year age group, the UC group, comparative mean values
for active disease versus remission were significantly different: elective
inpatient visits 2.02 (SD 2.16) versus 1.40 (SD 0.89), non-elective
inpatient visits 1.42 (SD 0.80) versus 1.06 (SD 0.24), length of inpatient
stay 8.69 (SD 11.77) days vs. 4.74 (SD 9.27) days, outpatient visits
5.49 (SD 6.02) versus 2.37 (SD 2.22), and primary care visits 21.15 (SD
21.32) versus 20.11 (SD 23.20) (all p < 0.0001).
In the CD group, hospital care values for patients age 18–59 years
were 2.31 (SD 2.06) versus 1.86 (1.64) for elective inpatient visits, 1.42
(SD 0.95) versus 1.14 (SD 0.39) for non-elective inpatient visits, 6.53
(SD 8.33) days versus 3.76 (SD 5.87) days for length of inpatient stay,
7.23 (SD 6.68) versus 3.61 (SD 3.88) for outpatient visits, and 23.95 (SD
24.73) versus 18.86 (SD 19.67 for primary care visits (all p < 0.0001).
The mean values in the IBD-undefined 18–59-year age group were
2.27 (SD 1.87) versus 1.25 (0.50) for elective inpatient visits (p =
0.0004), 1.49 (SD 1.10) versus 1.20 (SD 0.42) for non-elective inpatient
visits (p < 0.0001), 8.67 (SD 10.61) days versus 11.43 (SD 20.00) days
for length of stay (p < 0.0001), 8.45 (SD 8.66) versus 3.55 (SD 3.15) for
outpatient visits (p < 0.0001), and 28.70 (SD 27.77) versus 18.10 (SD
18.03) for primary care visits (p < 0.0001).
In the ≥ 60-year age group, the UC group, mean per-patient values
were significantly higher for the active state than remission for elective
inpatient visits (1.61 [SD 1.66] vs. 1.00 [SD 0.00], p < 0.0001), nonelective
inpatient visits (1.30 [SD 0.76] vs. 1.05 [SD 0.25], p < 0.0001),
length of inpatient stay (11.92 [SD 15.30] days vs. 4.73 [SD 5.08] days,
p < 0.0001), and outpatient visits (4.63 [SD 5.00] vs. 2.54 [SD 2.01],
p < 0.0001), whereas for primary care visits the number was higher
with remission (39.82 [SD 35.00] vs. 43.75 [SD 35.40], p = 0.0006;
Fig. 3).
Fig. 2 Health-care resource use over the study period by care type and
disease activity status. Data are means with standard deviations. (A) Ulcerative
colitis. (B) Crohn’s disease. (C) IBD-undefined. *Elective and nonelective
hospital visits. Abbreviation: IBD-undefined, diagnosis including
codes for both ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease
elective inpatient visits, 1.42 (SD 0.95) versus 1.14 (SD
0.39) for non-elective inpatient visits, 6.53 (SD 8.33) days
In the CD group aged ≥ 60 years, mean values were significantly higher
versus 3.76 (SD 5.87) days for length of inpatient stay,
with active state than remission for non-elective inpatients visits (1.21
7.23 (SD 6.68) versus 3.61 (SD 3.88) for outpatient visits,
[SD 0.58] vs. 1.08 [SD 0.29], p = 0.021) and outpatient visits (6.81 [SD
and 23.95 (SD 24.73) versus 18.86 (SD 19.67 for primary
6.18] vs. 3.79 [SD 3.59], p < 0.0001), whereas they were higher with
care visits (all p < 0.0001).
remission for elective inpatient visits (1.00 [SD 0.00] vs. 2.00 [SD 0.00],
The mean values in the IBD-undefined 18–59-year age
p = 0.01) and duration of inpatient stay (15.44 [SD 15.00] days vs.
group were 2.27 (SD 1.87) versus 1.25 (0.50) for elective
15.46 [SD 20.35] days, p = 0.003). The mean numbers of primary care
inpatient visits (p = 0.0004), 1.49 (SD 1.10) versus 1.20 (SD
visits did not differ significantly (40.18 [SD 39.39] vs. 42.98 [SD 36.61],
p = 0.37; Fig. 3).
Within the ≥ 60-year IBD-undefined age group, while significantly
higher values were seen in active disease for elective inpatient visits
0.42) fo
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GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Costs
Primary a
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20 21
FEATURE
UI-Haq et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:480
Page 8 of 13
FEATURE
(1.17 [SD 0.41] vs. 0 [SD 0.00], p < 0.0001), duration of inpatient stay
(35.50 [SD 28.25] days vs. 11.25 [SD 6.81] days, p = 0.031), outpatient
visits (8.03 [SD 10.25] vs. 3.63 [SD 2.08], p = 0.0035), and primary care
visits (44.44 [SD 37.25] vs. 31.66 [SD 28.04], p = 0.0019), the difference
for non-elective inpatient visits was not significant (2.27 [SD 3.31] vs.
1.00 [SD 0.00], p = 0.84; Fig. 3).
(mean 6.56 [SD 7.33] vs. 9.15 [SD 7.08], p = 0.0049; Appendix Table
A4). When we compared the type of biologics used first, the only
significant difference in use for any type of healthcare resource was
for length of hospital stay (elective and non-elective) in the UC group
(mean 10.64 [SD 9.30] days vs. 16.65 [SD 18.82], p = 0.006; Appendix
Table A5).
Biologic initiation Comparison of health-care resource use between
early and delayed start of biologics showed no significant differences
in most of the cohort except for outpatient visit numbers being
UI-Haq et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:480
significantly higher with later biologic use in the IBD-undefined group
Costs
Primary analysis
The mean total per-patient costs of health care were significantly higher
Page 7 of 13
among patients with active disease than remission for all ages and
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Fig. 3 Health-care resource use over the study period by care type, disease activity status, and age group. Data are means with standard deviations. (A)
Ulcerative colitis, (B) Crohn’s disease, and (C) IBD-undefined in the 18–59-year age group. (D) Ulcerative colitis, (E) Crohn’s disease, and (F) IBD-undefined
in the ≥ 60-year age group. *Elective and non-elective hospital visits. Abbreviation: IBD-undefined: diagnosis including codes for both ulcerative colitis
and Crohn’s disease
Fig. 4 Total per-patient health-care costs over the study period by disease
and activity status. Data are means with standard deviations. (A) Whole cohort.
(B) All patients aged 18–59 years. (C) All patients aged ≥ 60 years. Abbreviation:
IBD-undefined: diagnosis including codes for both ulcerative
colitis and Crohn’s disease
Subgroup analyses of costs
by age group (all p < 0.0001 except p = 0.00026 for CD patents aged
Age For UC, in the 18–59-year age group, the mean perpatient
costs were higher with active disease state than
≥ 60 years; Fig. 4). However, when analysing the different care types
separately, variation was seen. For UC and CD, significantly higher
remission for non-elective inpatient visits (£4,583 [SD
costs for hospital care (inpatient and outpatient) were associated with
£4,489] vs. £2,582 [SD £2,141]), outpatient visits (£559
the active state while the opposite was true for inpatient care among
[SD £481] vs. £340 [SD £320]), and primary care visits
patients with IBD-undefined (Fig. 5). The mean number of primary care
(£357 [SD £558] vs. £32 [SD £599]), whereas the opposite
visits were numerically lower with active UC, although not statistically
was true for elective inpatient visits (£2,581 [SD £3,660]
significant (p = 0.67), were significantly lower with active CD (p =
0.0006), and were significantly higher with active IBD-undefined.
Biologics costs were higher with active disease than remission for all
diagnoses, but significance was reached for this difference only in the
CD group.
Fig. 5 Total per-patient health-care costs over the study period by care
type and disease activity status. Data are means with standard deviations.
(A) Ulcerative colitis. (B) Crohn’s disease. (C) IBD-undefined. Abbreviation:
IBD-undefined: diagnosis including codes for both ulcerative colitis and
Crohn’s disease
vs. £5,085 [SD £4,247]) (all, p < 0.0001, Fig. 6). The cost
of biologics did not differ significantly (mean £6,547 [SD
Subgroup analyses of costs
£6,971] vs. £6,213 [SD £5,700], p = 0.81). By contrast, the
Age For UC, in the 18–59-year age group, the mean per-patient costs
costs for CD were consistently greater with active disease
were higher with active disease state than remission for non-elective
than with remission, and all differences were significant
inpatient visits (£4,583 [SD £4,489] vs. £2,582 [SD £2,141]), outpatient
(all p < 0.0001, Fig. 6): elective inpatient visits mean £4,581
visits (£559 [SD £481] vs. £340 [SD £320]), and primary care visits
(SD £4,506) versus £443 (SD £2,759); non-elective inpatient
visits £4,183 (SD £4,169) versus £2,702 (SD £2,771);
(£357 [SD £558] vs. £32 [SD £599]), whereas the opposite was true
for elective inpatient visits (£2,581 [SD £3,660] vs. £5,085 [SD £4,247])
outpatient visits £696 (SD £591) versus £411 (SD £332);
(all, p < 0.0001, Fig. 6). The cost of biologics did not differ significantly
(mean £6,547 [SD £6,971] vs. £6,213 [SD £5,700], p = 0.81). By contrast,
the costs for CD were consistently greater with active disease than
with remission, and all differences were significant (all p < 0.0001, Fig.
6): elective inpatient visits mean £4,581 (SD £4,506) versus £443 (SD
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
22 23
except p = 0.00026 for CD patents aged ≥ 60 years; Fig. 4).
However, when analysing the different care types separately,
variation was seen. For UC and CD, significantly
statistically significant (p = 0.67), were significantly lower
with active CD (p = 0.0006), and were significantly higher
with active IBD-undefined. Biologics costs were higher
FEATURE
UI-Haq et al. BMC Gastroenterology (2024) 24:480
Page 9 of 13
FEATURE
inpatient visits £6,190 [SD £5,254] vs. £5,201 [SD £4,220]; outpatient
care £767 [SD £611] vs. £461 [SD £376]; and biologics £11,759 [SD
£11,162] vs. £3,517 [SD £3,750]). For IBD-undefined, significantly
higher costs were seen with active disease for elective inpatient visits
(mean £3,506 [SD £4,730] vs. £0 [SD £0], p < 0.0001), outpatient visits
(£798 [SD £784] vs. £424 [SD £339], p = 0.0038), and primary care
visits (£768 [SD £869] vs. £530 [£577], p = 0.032). Other costs were
numerically higher for patients with active disease but not statistically
(non-elective inpatient visits mean £11,989 [SD £11,710] vs. £5,175
[SD £3,825], p = 0.16 and biologics £10,409 [SD £8,187] vs. £2,060
[SD £0], p = 0.23).
Biologic initiation We found no significant differences in the costs
associated with any type of care when assessed by timing of biologic
initiation (Appendix Table A6). Costs associated with receiving non-anti-
TNFs as the first biologic therapy were significantly more expensive
than those of receiving anti-TNFs first (UC mean £11,208 [SD £8,348]
vs. £5,068 [SD £5,845], p < 0.0001; CD £10,648 [SD £8,370] vs.
£6,296 [SD £5,828], p = 0.022; IBD-undefined £13,020 [SD £7,022] vs.
£6 695 [SD £9,334], p < 0.001). However, when direct biologics costs
were removed, none of the costs associated with primary or secondary
care differed significantly other than that for non-elective inpatient visits
among patients with UC and outpatient visits for those with CD (both
favoured anti-TNFs; Appendix Table A7).
Discussion
This large 4-year real-world cohort study shows a substantial burden
on the health-care system associated with IBD, wherein more healthcare
resources are used by patients meeting pre-defined criteria for
active disease than by those considered to be in remission. A similar
pattern was seen for costs. The greatest health-care resource use is
seen for primary care, particularly in patients aged 60 years and older,
followed by outpatient care. The overarching driver for costs was
inpatient hospital care (elective and non-elective). Total health-care
costs were greater in an active state than in remission (all p < 0.0001),
with the main cost driver being inpatient hospital care visits for active
disease. Among patients with UC and IBD-undefined in remission
elective inpatient costs were higher than those with active disease.
definitions of active disease and remission. Other studies within similar
time periods showed higher biologic use. In an Israeli study 39% of
patients with CD and 15% with UC diagnosed between 2005 and
2020 received biologics [38], while, in a Danish study, among patients
diagnosed from 2000 to 2018, 27% with CD and 10% with UC received
biologics within 1 year of onset [39].
Some studies suggest that costly novel therapies failed to lower the
overall cost burden of IBD. Alulis and colleagues [40] reported higher
annual costs of treatment among patients who received biologics
than for those who did not. Nevertheless, staffing costs were reduced
driven by more patients being seen as outpatients. Similarly, Park
and colleagues [41] showed that care costs rose with increasing use
of biologics after 2014, particularly in elderly IBD patients, where
costs were 20–40% higher than those for adults aged 19–54 years.
This finding is intriguing, as people older than 60 years are less often
treated with biologics [13, 15], similar to the pattern in our cohort.
Such findings might be related to co-existing conditions associated
with ageing. Burisch and colleagues [42] assessed 5-year direct
expenditure profiles for 1,289 patients with IBD across Europe and
highlighted that biologics accounted for a significant proportion of
direct health-care costs. Concurrently, however, they reported that
overall costs decreased over the 5-year period, which they attributed
to reduced costs for procedures, hospitalisations, and surgeries
despite increased spending on biologicals.
Differing prescribing habits by age group might be driven by safety
concerns related to anti-TNF biologics [15], but it seems unlikely that
the use of biologics alone, and especially more costly non-anti-TNF
biologics, is driving higher treatment costs. Rather, we found that costs
for older patients with active disease were high for inpatient hospital
care, probably because of the length of stay required. Meanwhile,
younger patients with disease in remission accessed the most
inpatient care, especially elective hospital visits, which were probably
related to attendances for day-care infusions. This is consistent with
the reported literature, particularly for UC [43]. More-granular details
on the use of care would add value to understand further whether
different approaches can reduce the costs associated with more
urgent secondary care.
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Fig. 6 Total per-patient health-care costs over the study period by care type, disease activity status, and age group. Data are means with standard deviations.
(A) Ulcerative colitis, (B) Crohn’s disease, and (C) IBD-undefined in the 18–59-year age group. (D) Ulcerative colitis, (E) Crohn’s disease, and (F) IBDundefined
in the ≥ 60-year age group. Abbreviation: IBD-undefined: diagnosis including codes for both ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease
primary care visits £401 (SD £509) versus £314 (SD £8,041], p < 0.0001) while outpatient and primary care visits
were significantly higher with active disease (£761 [SD
£425); and biologics £7,927 (SD £7,076) versus £3,095
£2,759); non-elective inpatient visits £4,183 (SD £4,169) versus £2,702 In the ≥ 60-year age group, mean per-patient costs associated with
(SD £2,861). For IBD-undefined, costs for elective inpatient
visits and biologics differed notably numerically but £310 [SD £374], p = 0.0001).
£599] vs. £418 [£340], p < 0.0001, and £493 [SD £627] vs.
(SD £2,771); outpatient visits £696 (SD £591) versus £411 (SD £332); all care types for UC were significantly higher with active disease than
primary care visits £401 (SD £509) versus £314 (SD £425); and biologics with remission (elective inpatient visits mean £4,873 [SD £4,421] vs.
not statistically (mean £4,863 [SD £3,934] vs. £7,759 [SD
£7,927 (SD £7,076) versus £3,095 (SD £2,861). For IBD-undefined, costs £1,646 [SD £1,081], p < 0.0001; non-elective inpatient visits £4,479
£11,948], p = 0.63, and £8,567 [SD £9,442] vs. £1,135 [SD In the ≥ 60-year age group, mean per-patient costs
for elective inpatient visits and biologics differed notably numerically [SD £3,816] vs. £2,664 [SD £1,608], p < 0.0001; outpatient care £547
£2,842], p = 0.33, respectively). Non-elective inpatient associated with all care types for UC were significantly
but not statistically (mean £4,863 [SD £3,934] vs. £7,759 [SD £11,948], [SD £463] vs. £375 [SD £270], p < 0.0001; and biologics £10,139 [SD
visits were significantly lower with active disease than higher with active disease than with remission (elective
p = 0.63, and £8,567 [SD £9,442] vs. £1,135 [SD £2,842], p = 0.33, £8,667] vs. £1,948 [SD £1,360], p = 0.018) except for primary care
with remission (mean £4,809 [SD £3,954] vs. £7,213 [SD inpatient visits mean £4,873 [SD £4,421] vs. £1,646 [SD
respectively). Non-elective inpatient visits were significantly lower with (£633 [SD £850] vs. £709 [SD £844], p = 0.003; Fig. 6). For CD, primary
active disease than with remission (mean £4,809 [SD £3,954] vs. £7,213
[SD £8,041], p < 0.0001) while outpatient and primary care visits were
significantly higher with active disease (£761 [SD £599] vs. £418 [£340],
p < 0.0001, and £493 [SD £627] vs. £310 [SD £374], p = 0.0001).
care costs did not differ significantly between disease statuses (mean
£632 [SD £691] for active disease vs. £755 [SD £887] for remission, p =
0.33) while all other costs were significantly higher with active disease
(elective inpatient visits £6,464 [SD £2,575] vs. £0 [SD £0]; non-elective
Understanding the activities driving costs in IBD is important in a two
respects: firstly, as the prevalence of the disease continues to rise in
high-income countries, anticipating the needs of the population is a
prerequisite for planning health services; secondly, as more drugs are
marketed for IBD, more-effective therapies and early recognition of
non-response facilitates a switch to the next drug to elicit a response,
thereby mitigating the likelihood of more costly hospital admissions.
The lower health-care resources cost with remission links economic
with clinical arguments for early use of effective therapies to induce and
maintain remission in IBD and minimise hospital admissions for active
disease, particularly non-elective admissions [17, 37]. In our cohort only
5% of patients (n = 392) were prescribed biologics: 144 (37%) received
them early, within 3 months of an active disease event, and 248 (63%)
received later therapy. We were unable to study the underlying reasons
behind prescribing practices due to the retrospective design of the
study. However, compared with other cohorts, these figures are low,
which suggests undertreatment even beyond the constraints of the
Much of the care burden of patients with IBD in this study fell on
primary care, particularly for patients in the 60 years and older age
group. While the costs of these visits are low, the numbers of visits
require substantial time. In a UK survey of 624 family physicians, 70%
reported that they had no formal training in IBD and more than half
(52%) expressed low confidence in knowing how to manage disease
flares [44]. This could be an important area in which to provide training
to GPs and education to patients that could reduce the need for
hospital admissions and the number of visits.
Everhov and colleagues [15] showed that increased spending on
direct health-care costs can reduce the need for societal support of
patients due to sickness absence. Burisch et al. [45] recommended
that health-care costs assessments should include indirect costs to
better reflect the results of improved disease management, and use
registries and big data to assess changes in health-care models in the
real world. While we had access to a large real-world dataset, sufficient
data on indirect costs were not available to enable such comparisons.
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
24 25
FEATURE
FEATURE
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
We did find that in patients who received biologics, non-drug costs did
not increase. We support the improved reporting and use of data on
community, social, and other indirect costs.
The Discover dataset is one of Europe’s largest linked longitudinal
costed datasets [36], and captures roughly one-third of London’s
population, representing wide diversity. It can provide longitudinal
health-care data at the patient level based on commissioner pricing
for different provider services, linked by patients’ unique NHS
identifiers. Primary care data available from birth, including diagnoses,
prescriptions, hospital activity, and events such as emergency,
outpatient, and social care visits add to the strength of this study.
Nevertheless, we caution that there may be some variability in clinical
practice between individual centres and other geographical areas that
might affect the generalisability of results.
However, this study has some limitations. First, the definitions of
active disease and remission were based on indirect assumptions,
albeit underpinned by indications for treatment escalation in prevailing
guidelines [18]. Shortcomings in the granularity of real-world data is
a well-recognised limitation [46]. This issue led to active disease and
remission having to be estimated from numbers of events in 12-month
periods and remission from the proportion of observations that did
not show more than two events in a 12-month period. This approach
precluded some analyses, such as accurate calculations of length of
remission, which might have been of interest to readers. Additionally,
it may have led to an overestimate of the remission rate. Another
study using real-world data from UK IBD BioResource calculated that
remission at 1 year was 74–76% in patients with CD, dependent on the
first-line biologic received, and at 3 years was 50–70% [47]. Norwegian
population-based cohort studies suggest clinical remission in 48% of
patients with UC and 44% with CD, 5–10 years after diagnosis [2, 3,
48]. Thus, the most appropriate way to record and measure remission
should be investigated further. Second, although the Discover dataset
includes social care records, methods to calculate societal cost factors
at the patient level are still underway. We acknowledge, however, that
these social care and wider societal costs are likely to further impact
cost-effectiveness in health care. Hansson-Hedblom and colleagues
[49] used a cost-effectiveness model to estimate direct and indirect
costs of CD in Sweden. They showed that for total costs over a 60-
year life-time horizon, indirect costs for loss of productivity accounted
for around 50% of disease-associated costs. Another Swedish study
showed that mean annual societal costs for adults were increased
around threefold with CD and doubled with UC compared with costs
for the general population, with 56% and 59%, respectively, being
due to loss in productivity [50]. Our aim was to test the hypothesis
that active disease is associated with higher use and costs of clinical
health care to support clinical practice that delivers timely and effective
therapies. We did not assess differences in health-care resource use
by subgroups of patients, for example by sex, education, employment,
etc., as it was outside the scope of the study. Such population
data are stored in the Discover database and following on from
our findings could identify subgroups who might benefit most from
tailored approaches to treatment. A previous study [51] found multiple
sociodemographic and clinical factors within patient subgroups that
were associated with high treatment costs, especially unemployment,
use of prescribed opiates, and psychiatric and cardiovascular
diseases. Of note, data on ethnicity were very poorly recorded in our
data set, with records missing for about half of patients. While this
level of missing data seems particularly high and the reasons for this
are unclear, recording of ethnicity is a known issue across England,
particularly in London [52].
Conclusions
In our cohort, only 5% of IBD patients living in northwest London were
prescribed biologic therapy. Based on our indirect definition, active
disease was associated with significantly greater costs than care of
patients in remission. Earlier use of biologics and the use of non-anti-
TNF biologics as first-line therapy did not lead to significant increases
in overall health-care resource costs, supporting a paradigm of timely
and effective therapy. Further analysis of real-world data is warranted
to explore subgroups who may benefit most from earlier initiation of
biologics, whether uptake of classes of biologics with lower infection
risks offer additional benefits for the older age groups, and whether
uptake of biologic for this age group may increase with lower nonelective
hospital resource use.
Abbreviations
Anti-TNF Monoclonal antibody against tumour necrosis factor
CD Crohn’s disease
GP General practice
IBD Inflammatory bowel disease
SD Standard deviation
UC Ulcerative colitis
Supplementary Information
The online version contains supplementary material available at
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-024-03559-3.
Supplementary Material 1
Acknowledgements
We thank Rachel Ashton for providing writing and editorial support,
which was paid for by the study funder. All authors approved the final
version of the article.
Author contributions
Zia UI-Haq: conceptualization; data curation; formal analysis;
investigation; methodology; writing – review and editing. Luiz Causin:
conceptualization, project administration; writing – review and
editing. Tahereh Kamalati: conceptualization; project administration;
supervision; formal analysis; writing – review and editing. Durgesh
Kahol: conceptualization; supervision; formal analysis; writing – review
and editing. Trishan Vaikunthanathan: formal analysis; writing – review
and editing. Charlotte Wong: conceptualization; formal analysis; writing
– review and editing. Naila Arebi: conceptualization; supervision;
formal analysis; writing – original draft preparation; writing – review
and editing.
Funding
This study was funded by Janssen-Cilag Limited. The funder had a role
in study conceptualization, design, data collection, analysis, decision
to publish, and preparation of the manuscript.
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from
Imperial College Health Partners, but restrictions apply to the
availability of these data, which were used under license for the current
study, and so are not publicly available. Data are however available
from the Imperial College Health Partners upon reasonable request
and with permission of Professor Naila Arebi.
Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Ethics approval for the use of the Discover Platform for research was
secured from the NHS Health Research Authority in October 2018.
The REC reference is 18/WM/0323 and the IRAS project ID is 253449.
Ethics approval from an institutional review board was not sought as all
data were anonymised.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
DK was employed by Janssen-Cilag Ltd (a subsidiary of Johnson &
Johnson) at the time that the study was conducted and currently owns
Johnson & Johnson stock/stock options. TV is currently employed
by Janssen-Cilag Ltd (a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson) and owns
Johnson & Johnson stock/stock options. NA has received grants and
consultancy fees from Janssen, Lilly, Ferring and Abbvie. ZU-H, TK and
CW declared no conflicts of interest. LC was employed by Janssen-
Cilag Ltd (a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson) at the time that the study
was conducted. TK and ZU-H were employed by Imperial College
Health Partners at the time that the study was conducted.
Received: 28 September 2024 / Accepted: 10 December 2024
Published online: 30 December 2024
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Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affiliations.
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GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
28 29
COMPANY NEWS
COMPANY FEATURE NEWS
GASTROENTEROLOGY TODAY – SPRING 2025
Tillotts Pharma AG
celebrates 15 years as an
integral part of the Japanese
Zeria Group
RHEINFELDEN, Switzerland, February
13, 2025 – Life Science Newswire –Tillotts
Pharma AG ("Tillotts") proudly marks
its 15th anniversary as a member of the
Japanese Zeria Group, celebrating a
period of exceptional growth and valuable
collaboration together. The milestone was
commemorated in December 2024 with
Tillotts’ CEO, Thomas A. Tóth von Kiskér,
and members of the leadership team
visiting Zeria. During this special occasion,
Mr. Sachiaki Ibe, Chairman of the Board of
Directors and CEO of Zeria Pharmaceutical
Co., Ltd., presented Mr. Tóth a symbolic
piece of Japanese art featuring Mount Fuji
as a gift to honor Zeria’s appreciation for
Tillotts’ remarkable accomplishments since
the acquisition.
Over the past 15 years, Tillotts has
consistently achieved strong double-digit
growth and broadened its portfolio while
leveraging the trust and support of the Zeria
Group. Tillotts’ remarkable success and
progress is largely due to the exceptional
dedication of its employees, who constantly
strive to unlock the full potential of both
in-house developments and in-licensed
products and technologies. This commitment
has also led to Tillotts in-licensing the product
Dificlir for the treatment of Clostridioides
difficile infection (CDI) in 2020, a potentially
life-threatening disease. An effective and rapid
integration of Dificlir enabled the company
to quadruple its revenue since its in-licensing.
Mr. Sachiaki Ibe, Chairman and CEO of
Zeria Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. said:
"Tillotts has shown extraordinary performance
over these 15 years, and I sincerely appreciate
the significant contributions made to the
Zeria Group. Our partnership has been
strengthened over the years and has positively
influenced the future trajectory of both Tillotts
and Zeria. I extend my sincere gratitude to the
entire Tillotts team for their dedication and
look forward to continued growth for both
Zeria and Tillotts through our collaborative
efforts", says Mr. Sachiaki Ibe.
"The long-standing partnership with Zeria
fills us with great pride and gratitude for the
mutual trust we have built over the years.
Tillotts has evolved from a key player in IBD
to a strong specialty pharma company,
establishing ourselves as a leader in
gastroenterology and infectious diseases.
Our successes have allowed us to broaden
our network of affiliates across Europe, with
ambitions to grow beyond the continent in the
near future. I am immensely grateful to our
employees for their passion and hard work
in pursuing our goal of reaching even more
patients and improving their lives."
Pictured: Mr. Sachiaki Ibe, Chairman of
the Board of Directors and CEO of Zeria
Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Mr Mitsuhiro Ibe
Director of Zeria Pharmaceutical Co., and
Tillotts’ CEO, Thomas A. Tóth von Kiskér (right
to left) at the celebration ceremony at Zeria’s
headquarters in Tokio
50 Years of Trust: Advancing
Healthcare and Science
Together
Alpha Laboratories Has Been Supplying
Quality to Science Since 1975
Alpha Laboratories (Eastleigh, UK) is
celebrating its 50th anniversary this year,
marking half a century of commitment
to supporting clinicians, scientists, and
patients across the globe. Founded in 1975,
Alpha Laboratories has become a trusted
supplier of laboratory consumables, liquid
handling supplies, diagnostic solutions, and
lab equipment.
David Giles was a founding member and
Chairman, pushing the company forward with
tenacity, passion and a drive for scientific
innovation. That passion and drive has
continued, with Alpha building a reputation for
providing high-quality products that support
critical research and healthcare applications.
Five decades on and the company remains
true to its original vision and ethos: to help
science improve people’s lives. Alpha’s
values are embedded in the pillars of People,
Planet, Culture where our team’s expertise,
professionalism, and involvement in local
communities and environment make them
proud to be part of Alpha.
From routine laboratory supplies to advanced
clinical diagnostics, Alpha Laboratories’
expertise spans a wide range of scientific
fields. Notably, the company has become
a leader in Faecal Immunochemical and
Calprotectin testing, offering products
that help clinicians make timely, accurate
diagnoses and improve patient outcomes.
“Celebrating 50 years is a testament to
the hard work and dedication of our team,
and to the trust our customers place in us,”
said Rob Vint, Managing Director of Alpha
Laboratories. “As we look to the future, we
remain committed to advancing healthcare
through innovation, sustainable solutions,
and exceptional service. Our journey has
been shaped by strong partnerships with
healthcare professionals, researchers, and
suppliers, and we are proud to have played
a role in supporting scientific progress and
improving patient care. While much has
changed over the past five decades, our
core values of integrity, collaboration, and
a passion for making a difference have
remained constant. We are excited about
the opportunities ahead and look forward to
continuing to serve the scientific and medical
communities for many years to come.”
As Alpha Laboratories celebrates this
remarkable milestone, it remains focused on
its vision for the future, continuing to invest in
innovative technologies, sustainable practices,
and global healthcare solutions.
To learn more about Alpha Laboratories’ 50-
year journey, visit www.alphalabs.co.uk/50th.
BIOHIT introduces the
FAEX Sample System
for stool sample collection
and handling
16. Sivero, L. et al. Endoscopic diagnosis and treatment convenient of dropper tube, Author enabling contributions
precise Jussi Hahtela, CEO of BIOHIT OYJ,
neuroendocrine tumors of the digestive system. and Open reproducible Med. 11(1), sample Ç.E., dispensing M.Y.: conception, for design, commented: supervision, “The BIOHIT materials, FAEX data Sample collection
369–373. https://doi.org/10.1515/med-2016-0067 ELISAs, (2016). chemiluminescence and assays, processing, lateral analysis System and interpretation, exemplifies literature our commitment review, writer to
17. Witteman, B. J., Janssens, A. R., Griffi oen, G. flow & Lamers, tests and C. proprietary B. and diagnostic critical review. kits. The D.A., B.Y., providing K.K. O.C., innovative İ.T., H.T.K.: solutions materials, that address data
Villous tumours of the duodenum. An analysis precision-engineered of the literature with collection collection stick and ensures processing, real-world analysis and challenges interpretation, for patients literature and review
emphasis on malignant transformation. Neth. J. Med. 42, 5 (1993).
consistent and accurate sample and manuscript collection, supervision. laboratories. By combining precision and
18. Levine, J. A., Burgart, L. J., Batts, K. P. & Wang, K. K. Brunner’s
BIOHIT OYJ is excited to announce the while a screw-tight cap with leak-proof efficiency, we are empowering customers to
launch
gland
of
hamartomas:
the BIOHIT FAEX
Clinical
Sample
presentation and pathological features
threads promotes safe and hygienic handling, streamline their workflows and improve the
System, of 27 a cases. revolutionary Am. J. Gastroenterol. stool sample 90, 290–294 (1995).
Competing interests
collection 19. Noguchi, and H. handling et al. Prevalence solution of that Helicobacter
transport,
pylori infection
storage
rate
and disposal. The authors declare no competing patient experience. interests. The unique adaptability
can in be heterotopic seamlessly gastric incorporated mucosa in into histological analysis of duodenal
of the BIOHIT FAEX Sample System makes it
any specimens diagnostic from workflow. patients Designed with duodenal for ulcer. CE-marked Histol. Histopathol. and compliant Additional with Regulation information an excellent addition to other manufacturers’
precision, 35(2), 169–176. efficiency https://doi.org/10.14670/HH-18-142 and flexibility, this
(EU) 2017/746
(2020)
for In Vitro Correspondence Diagnostic Devices and requests diagnostic for materials kits, while should also be serving addressed as a to reliable Ç.E.
innovative, (Epub 2019 practical Jul 2). and reliable system
addresses the needs of both patients (IVDR), the BIOHIT FAEX Sample System standalone solution for laboratories.”
20. Singhal, S. et al. Anorectal gastrointestinal stromal tumor: A case
and laboratories.
meets the highest regulatory Reprints standards.
permissions information is available at
report and literature review. Case Rep. Gastrointest. Med. 2013,
934875 (2013).
Whether used as a standalone www.nature.com/reprints.
component or Visit https://www.biohithealthcare.com/
The 21. Modlin, BIOHIT I. FAEX M., Lye, Sample K. D. System & Kidd, combines M. A 5-decade as analysis part of a of diagnostic 13,715 kit, it is a versatile and en/products/biohit-faex-sample-system/
multi-functionality carcinoid tumors. with Cancer ease of 97, use. 934–959 It (2003). efficient solution that simplifies
Publisher’s
stool sample
note Springer
to
Nature
find out
remains
more about
neutral
the
with
BIOHIT
regard
FAEX
to
serves 22. Bulur, as both A. et a al. standard Polypoid test lesions tube detected and a in the collection upper and processing
jurisdictional
in any setting.
claims in published
Sample
maps
System.
and institutional affi liations.
gastrointestinal endoscopy: A retrospective analysis in 19560
patients, a single-center study of a 5-year experience in Turkey. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
N. Clin. Istanb. 8(2), 178–185. https://doi.org/10.14744/
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
nci.2020.16779 (2020).
23. Kostiainen, S., Teppo, L. & Virkkula, L. Papilloma of the
oesophagus. Report of a case. Scand. J. Thorac. Cardiovasc.
Surg. 7(1), 95–97. https://doi.org/10.3109/14017437309139176
(1973).
24. Mandard, A. M. et al. Cancer of the esophagus and associated
lesions: Detailed pathologic study of 100 esophagectomy
specimens. Hum. Pathol. 15, 660 (1984).
25. Levine, J. A., Burgart, L. J., Batts, K. P. & Wang, K. K. Brunner’s
gland hamartomas: Clinical presentation and pathological features
of 27 cases. Am. J. Gastroenterol. 90(2), 290–294 (1995).
26. Ma, M. X. & Bourke, M. J. Management of duodenal polyps. Best
Pract. Res. Clin. Gastroenterol. 31(4), 389–399 (2017).
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as
long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source,
provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes
were made. The images or other third party material in this article are
included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated
otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted
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obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this
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